rural idaho since the recession priscilla salant, director mcclure center for public policy research...
TRANSCRIPT
Rural Idaho Since the RecessionPriscilla Salant, Director
McClure Center for Public Policy ResearchUniversity of Idaho
August 12, 2015
www.indicatorsidaho.org
TITLE 67STATE GOVERNMENT AND STATE AFFAIRS
CHAPTER 90IDAHO RURAL DEVELOPMENT PARTNERSHIP ACT
(1)Assess conditions of rural Idaho;
(2)Advise the governor and the legislature on public policy and strategies to improve the quality of life in rural Idaho;...
(6)Serve as a nonpartisan forum for identifying and understanding rural issues from all perspectives;
.
We use OMB’s definition of “rural”
All 32 counties other than these metro areas:•Coeur d’Alene (1 county)•Lewiston (1 county)•Boise-Nampa-Caldwell (5 counties)•Pocatello (1 county plus 1 w Logan MSA)•Idaho Falls (3 counties)
SOURCE: US Census Bureau
Rural Idahoans make up a declining but significant share of the population
44
34
1814
1980 1990 2000 2010
Rural Idaho Rural US
548,000 in 2014Percent
SOURCE: USDA, Economic Research Service
Population growth has been uneven across Idaho
SOURCE: US Census Bureau
Population change (%), 2010-2014
Clark -11.7
Butte -9.3
Camas -7.0
Custer -5.2
Elmore -3.5
Decline
Ada 8.6
Canyon 7.5
Kootenai 6.4
Twin Falls 4.8
Bonneville 4.2
Growth
Rural Idaho is growing only because of Hispanics
0
46
10
-1
4
Nonmet ID Metro ID
Population change by ethnicity, 2010-2013
Total Population Hispanic Non-Hispanic
SOURCE: US Census Bureau
Adams 34
Lemhi 25
Lewis 23
Benewah 20
Nez Perce 19
Hispanic growth (%), 2010-2013
Population change: Net migration and births minus deaths
SOURCE: US Census Bureau
4
1
6
3 3 31
-2
3
IDAHO Rural ID Urban ID
Population change and its components, 2010-2014
Population change (%)Natural change (%)Net migration rate (%)
Natural change rate (%),2010-2014
Clearwater -2.0
Shoshone -1.8
Lemhi -1.0
Boise -0.6
Washington -0.5
Unemployment rates are down from the peak. Rural rates are slightly higher than urban.
SOURCE: US Bureau of Labor Statistics
3.3
9.1
5.1
2.9
9.0
4.7
07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
Unemployment rate, 2007-2014
Recession years Rural Urban
Average annual unemployment rate (%), 2014
Shoshone 10.0
Adams 10.0
Clearwater 9.4
Benewah 8.1
Lemhi 7.7
High unemployment
Owyhee 3.3
Madison 3.3
Franklin 3.4
Teton 3.9
Oneida 3.9
Low unemployment
Job numbers are below pre-recession levels in both rural and urban Idaho
SOURCE: US Bureau of Economic Analysis
310,458 291,049 298,497
620,644577,057 604,949
07 08 09 10 11 12 13
Number of jobs, 2007-2013
Recession years Rural Urban
Change in number of jobs (%), 2007-2013
Valley -17
Blaine -16
Lemhi -15
Bonner -11
Clearwater -11
Decline
Camas 39
Clark 28
Lewis 14
Lincoln 11
Oneida 5
Growth
Rural wages remain lower than urban but are starting to catch up
SOURCE: US Bureau of Economic Analysis
33,762 33,978 34,080
40,701 39,873 39,511
07 08 09 10 11 12 13
Average wage per job ($), 2007-2013
Recession years Rural Urban
NOTE: Adjusted for inflation to 2013 Real Dollars
Average wage per job ($), 2013
Oneida 25,718
Boise 26,767
Franklin 27,433
Gem 29,042
Jefferson 29,067
Low wages
Butte 85,463
Caribou 49,096
Camas 45,927
Ada 43,937
Custer 41,464
High wages
Surprising trend in per capita income: rural is catching up to urban, which appears stalled.
SOURCE: US Bureau of Economic AnalysisNOTE: Adjusted for inflation to 2013 Real Dollars
34,329
35,805
38,658
36,320
07 08 09 10 11 12 13
Per capita personal income, 2007-2013
Recession years Rural Urban
Per capita personal income ($), 2013
Madison 22,987
Canyon 25,606
Boundary 29,668
Gem 30,597
Teton 30,910
Low income
Blaine 67,513
Clark 53,416
Camas 49,054
Gooding 46,244
Lewis 43,378
High income
The picture is mixed in Idaho’s farm-dependent counties.Since the recession…•Population numbers: flat•Jobs: up slightly and more than in Idaho as a whole•Unemployment rates: below the state level and falling•Average wages: slightly higher than the state level
Clark -11.7
Camas -7.0
Fremont -2.8
Gooding -2.6
Power -2.6
Minidoka 1.3
Jerome 2.0
Lincoln 2.1
Cassia 2.6
Population change (%), 2010-2014
Policy Implications
•Highway funding• Early childhood and K-12 education – from school
boards to broadband•College access•Public lands including new wilderness designations•And more ….