rural housing: reframing the way forward

Improving Rural Housing in South DakotaA Systems Approach

David Peter StrohBridgeway Partners

Introductions

• What is working now in your experience of developing appropriate, affordable housing?

• What do you want from today’s Summit?

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Goals

• Understand why good intentions are not enough to achieve meaningful results

• Distinguish conventional from systems thinking• Learn basic systems thinking tools• Apply these tools to deepening our understanding of appropriate, affordable housing in South Dakota– Where we have come from– Where we are now– What we can do to increase it

• Clarify next steps


Agenda

• Set the context• Clarify where we have come from• Learn basic systems thinking tools• Lunch• Agree on where we are now and why we haven’t been as successful as we want in developing appropriate, affordable rural housing

• Break• Identify high leverage solutions• Determine next steps


Examples

• Homeless shelters perpetuate homelessness

• Food aid leads to increased starvation

• Drug busts increase drug‐related crime

• “Get tough” prison sentences fail to reduce fear of violent crime

• Job training programs increase unemployment

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Common Characteristics of Failed Solutions

• Obvious and often succeed in the short run

• Short‐term gains undermined by long‐term impacts

• Negative consequences are unintentional

• If the problem recurs, we do not see our responsibility


Good Deeds Are Not Enough

“The road to hell is paved with good intentions.”


“When you are confronted by any complex social system … with things about it that you’re dissatisfied with and anxious to fix, you cannot just step in and set about fixing with much hope of helping. This is one of the sore discouragements of our time… If you want to fix something you are first obliged to understand…the whole system.” (Lewis Thomas)

The Need for a New Way of Thinking

The connection between problems and their causes is obvious and easy to trace.

Others, either within or outside our organization, are to blame for ourproblems and must be the ones tochange.

A policy designed to achieve short term success will also assure long term success.

In order to optimize the whole, we must optimize the parts.

Aggressively tackle many independent initiatives simultaneously.

The relationship between problems and their causes is indirect and not obvious.

We unwittingly create our own problems and have significant control or influence in solving them through changing our own behavior.

Most quick fixes have unintended consequences: they make no difference or make matters worse in the long run.

In order to optimize the whole, we must improve relationships among the parts.

Only a few key coordinated changes sustained over time will produce large systems change.

Conventional Thinking Systems Thinking


Some Definitions• Available, affordable housing:

– Primary purpose is to attract young families– Alternatives include single/multi‐family, new/rehab, rent/rent‐to‐buy

• Availability of funding for developers and buyers: – Lenders: government (multiple levels), private, nonprofit corporation

– Forms of assistance: loans, tax credits, set‐asides, down‐payment assistance, investments, payment scheduling

• Community infrastructure for development– Paid development coordinator– Nonprofit development corporation


Deepening Our Understanding of Reality: The Iceberg

FOCUS ACTION OR RESPONSE

Why?

TRENDS& PATTERNSTRENDS& PATTERNS

STRUCTURE(Forces and Pressures)

EVENTSEVENTSWhat happened?ReactFirefight

AnticipateForecast

ChangeCreate

What’sbeen happening?

LearningLeverage

PressuresPoliciesPower dynamicsPerceptionsPurpose

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Some Key Events

• Passage of Governor’s Houses legislation• Opening of new hospital in town• Termination of federal funding source• Other?


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Graphing Trends Over Time: Homelessness Example

Time

Estimated # Homeless

Efforts to Reduce HomelessnessVisibility of the Problem

Present10 Years Ago

Trends for Rural Housing in South Dakota

Draw trends over past 10 years for:• Appropriate, affordable rural housing stock• Population of young families in rural towns• Available jobs in rural towns• Funding for rural housing development


The world is circular not linear:

Analyzing Structure: Recognizing Feedback

From:

To:

Problems or Crises

Actions or Interventions

Actions or Interventions

Problems or Crises

Unintended and Delayed Consequences


• We live in complex webs of interconnected reinforcing and balancing processes.

• Reinforcing process: virtuous cycles that generate growth vicious treadmills that create disaster

Reinforcing Loops


Reinforcing Loops

PerformanceorCondition

Growing Action

R

Pattern

Time

Structure

Performance

or

Performance


Rural Development


Housing

Population

Jobs

Need for HousingR

Teacher’s Expectations

Student’s PerformanceR

To what extent have you experienced the same dynamic with people who work for you, your colleagues or suppliers, your children?

The Self‐Fulfilling Prophecy

Lily Pond Story

Time (Days)

% Surface Area Covered

0

100

0 30

Known Facts:1. 100% of surface area is covered in 30 days2. Surface area covered by lily pads doubles every day

Full


Questions

1. When is the pond half full?a) 10 daysb) 15 daysc) 20 daysd) 29 days

2. How full is the pond after 15 days?a) 50%b) 25%c) 2.5%d) .0025%


Lily Pond Lessons

Time (Days)

% Surface Area Covered

100

0 300

x

x

x

xxx xx

… And Structure Is a Better Predictor Than Trends


Balancing Process

Structure Pattern

Balancing loops seek to correct or adjust toward a goal

Performanceor Condition

CorrectiveAction

B

Time

Goal

22

Performance

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The Risk of Taking the Pressure Off

B

Results(e.g., Plant Accidents)

Effort(e.g., Plant Safety Programs)

Balancing Effort and Results


The Challenge of Managing Time Delays

• Delays are a significant and often hidden part of system structure.• Delays can occur in awareness, decision‐making, implementation, and/or correction.• The tendency is to be impatient and over‐respond or to give up prematurely.

Delay

B

WaterTemperature

Hot Water Flow


Desired Performance or

GoalsActual

Performance

Gap

Corrective Action

BDelay

Increase graduation rates

Create responsible citizens and lifelong learners

Get a job

Test scores

Absentee rates

Teacher evaluations

What gap? My child is above average Our school is above average

We need more/less: 3R’s in Kindergarten Arts, physical education, social

studies ….

We expect to see these changes by …

Failing to Agree on What We Want and Where We Are:Challenges in Disseminating K-12 Innovations


Condition orPerformance BR Constraining

Action

Virtuous Cycle Limiting ProcessTime

GrowingAction

Performance

Delay

Limits or Constraint onPerformance

Limits to Growth

• External limits (market size, competition, natural resources).• Limits within the organization or community (financial, human, or

technological resources available, skills of workforce).• Limits within ourselves (our skills, mental models, attitudes,

willingness to change, capacity to learn).

Other slowing forces may involve action by others that are caused or stimulated by our growth

Limits that May Affect Growth Situations

Causal Loop Diagram vs. Process Map

Sales

RevenuePlan

Do

Check

Act

•What do the words communicate in each picture?

__________________ _________________

•What do the arrows signify in each picture?

__________________ __________________

Investment

Quality of ProductsAnd Processes

Priming the Pump

Available, AffordableHousing

Population

Jobs

HousingNeed

Housing Development

Educ Oppty

Tax Revenue

Availability ofFunding

Community InfrastructureFor Development

Potential ReturnOn Development

DevelopmentCosts*

EconomicProspects

HomeownershipEducation

Risk of Competing With Private Developers & Realtors

Community Resistance

Risk ofUnder‐appraisal

Risk ofOver‐building

Engaged CitizensIn Vital N’hoods

R1

R2

R3

R4

R5

R6

R7

R=Pump B=Seepage

R8

R10

R9

B1

B2 Willing and AbleBuyers


Managing Development Costs

Development Costs

Labor Costs

Sweat Equity Prison Labor

Land Costs

Large Parcel Size

Convenience

Willing and AbleBuyers

Material Costs

Land Trusts

Design Features

Low Infrastructure Costs

Planned Density


Understanding Where We Are

• Which dynamics make sense to you – have you experienced?

• In what essential ways is the model inaccurate or incomplete?

• How might you modify it?


The Power of Mental Models

• A critical part of system structure• Deeply held beliefs and assumptions about

ourselves and the world• Determine how and what we perceive• Guide how we act, which in turn influences our

results• Incomplete and may be outdated

Mental Models Example: Firefighting Breeds Arsonists

Performance Problems

Improvements in Systems

and Processes

Firefighting

Time to ImproveSystems and Processes

Customers’ ExpectationsFor Special Treatment

Use of Customized Solutions

Ability to DevelopCommon Systems

And Processes

We’ll do whatever it takes. This is what

gets rewarded

I don’t have time to be on a design committee

The company will give us whatever we want

It’s impossible to develop common solutions

This will take too much time. We have to help the customer now

© 2008 AppliedSystemsThinking.com

B

B

Mental Models for Rural Housing

• What underlying beliefs or assumptions support our ability to increase appropriate, affordable rural housing?

• What underlying beliefs or assumptions hinderour ability to increase appropriate, affordable rural housing?


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Identifying Leverage Points

1. Ask systemic questions, e.g.– Why have we not been able to achieve desired results despite our best efforts?

– If we know the solution, how come we haven’t been able to implement it?

– How do we unwittingly contribute to the problem?

2. Increase awareness of current dynamics


Identifying Leverage Points

3. Rewire current dynamics4. Test and shift mental models 5. Revisit goals and metrics


Leverage Points for Limits to Growth

• If initial R loops are weak, find ways to strengthen them, i.e. prime the pump– Identify and reinforce weak links– Reduce delays or reset expectations for time required

• Anticipate and invest ahead of the limits, i.e. minimize seepage– Develop/strengthen new engines of growth– This might require diverting resources from current growth engines


Test Mental Models

• Affirm past experience which has shaped the beliefs and feelings associated with them

• Ask, “Do our beliefs help us achieve what we want?”• Seek disconfirming data, diverse views, and alternative

interpretations of the data• Experiment with new behaviors consistent with the

new belief• Monitor experiments• Revise and retest assumptions

Leverage Points for Rural Housing

• What engines of growth can you strengthen and how?

• What time delays can you shorten or be more realistic about?

• What limits to growth can you weaken?• What new engines of growth can you develop to overcome the limits?

• What mental models can you test? How?


For More Information

• Books– Peter Senge, The Fifth Discipline and The Fifth Discipline Fieldbook– Donnella Meadows, Thinking in Systems

• Articles (from Bridgeway Partners website)– “Leveraging Change: The Power of Systems Thinking in Action”– “Leveraging Grant‐making: Parts 1 and 2”

• Websites– Bridgeway Partners: www.bridgewaypartners.com– Applied Systems Thinking: www.appliedsystemsthinking.com– Pegasus Communications: www.pegasuscom.com

• Contact David Peter Stroh– [email protected]– 617‐487‐8766


rural housing: reframing the way forward

Self Improvement

surface area

reinforcingloops performance

homelessnessexample

forecast change

days b

theiceberg focus action

conventional thinking

homeless efforts