running on one engine kenya’s uneven economic performance with a special focus on the port of...
TRANSCRIPT
Running on one Engine Kenya’s uneven economic performance
with a special focus on the port of Mombasa
World Bank Economic Team
Presentation by Dr. Wolfgang Fengler
Press Briefing
Norfolk Hotel
Nairobi, June 3, 2010
Main messages
• Kenya is recovering - slowly but surely. For 2010, the World Bank is revising its growth forecast upwards to 4.0 percent. For 2011, we project 4.9 percent, if no shocks occur.
• However, Kenya is running on one engine. Over the last decade growth has been imbalanced, predominantly driven by domestic consumption fuelled by imports. Exports have been weak and non-tradable sectors, such as services and construction have performed strongly.
• The Infrastructure deficit constrains exports and the port of Mombasa is still under-performing. Despite some improvements, port reforms have not kept up with the momentum in other African countries. It still takes 20 days to bring a container from Mombasa to Nairobi. This is longer than to ship the same container from Singapore to Mombasa.
Recent Economic Developments and Outlook for 2010
Kenya’s economy is recovering – slowly but surely…
…but lags behind growth in East Africa
Services have been the drivers of growth in 2009, agriculture contracted again
… and Kenya’s ICT revolution continues: 20 mn phone connections; 4 mn internet connections
Macroeconomic management has been strong: Inflation and interest rates declined sharply since 2008
Fiscal deficits have been lowFor FY 2009/2010, the deficit only reached 4.9% by April 2010…
… and the fiscal stimulus will not be fully implemented: 57% disbursement after nine months
Kenya Running on one Engine
Kenya’s share in world trade has been declining sharply since 1970
The pattern of consumption-led growth and weak exports has been building up for a decade
Consumption has led Kenya out of the crisis in 2009 - net exports remain negative
The current account deficit remains large and is financed by a strong capital account…
...which is driven by short term flows
Over the last decade, non-tradable sectors have performed best
Ave.
Percent
Manufacturing has been overtaken by transport & communication and wholesale & retail trade
The Port of Mombasa
Singapore ships 50 times more goods than Mombasa
94 percent of Mombasa goods go to Kenya and Uganda
At the port, dwell time has been reduced, however, ...
11.3310.67
9.13
5.93
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
20,000
4th Qtr 2007 2nd Qtr '08 4th Qtr '08 2nd Qtr '09
volu
me
of g
oods
('0
00'D
WT
)
CFS DW TIME
.. it still takes 20 days to bring a container from Mombasa to Nairobi
3.7 days
18.3 days
… and Kenya is lagging behind in the implementation of reforms
Key reform issues
• Easy wins – Improve management. The Mombasa port can be substantially upgraded, even with the current infrastructure, including through (i) full and effective 24hr port operations; (ii) the implementation of a state of the art IT system (Port Community-Based System); (iii) the concessioning of berths 11-14 through a competitive and transparent process; (iv) the establishment of a landlord port.
• Infrastructure upgrading – Focus on transport connections. Transfer of goods through Mombasa and other parts of Kenya has become a major hindrance to the economy. Key improvements include the (i) Mombasa by-pass along with the link road from the port; (ii) upgrading of rail capacity; (iii) building of new container terminal by 2015
Thank You
http://www.worldbank.org/ke
For more information on this report and the World Bank’s Economic program in Kenya, please contact Wolfgang Fengler ([email protected]), Jane Kiringai ([email protected]) or Andrew Roberts