rrec – the administrationadministrations’s perspective · 2013-03-25 · rrec: releases and...

RREC – The Administration’s PerspectiveRREC The Administration s PerspectiveMike Lawlor, Undersecretary

Criminal Justice Policy & Planning DivisionOffi f P li d M tOffice of Policy and Management

1

Connecticut’s prison populationsince February 2008

21,000

19,894

19,000

20,000

21,000

18,978

18,05317,746

17,02217,000

18,000

16,646

14,000

15,000

16,000

14,000

FEB '08MAR

APRMAY

JUN

JUL

AUG

SEPOCT

NOV

DEC

JAN '09

FEBMAR

APRMAY

JUNE

JULY

AUG

SEPOCT

NOV

DEC

JAN '10

FEBMAR

APRMAY

JUNE

JULY

AUG

SEPOCT

NOV

DEC

JAN '11

FEBMAR

APRMAY

JUNE

JULY

AUG

SEPOCT

NOV

DEC

JAN '12

FEBMAR

APRMAY

JUNE

JULY

AUG

SEPOCT

NOV

DEC

JAN '13

FEBMAR

2

Average sentenced admits per monthg p

Avg. sentenced admits per month

435.8

425.2 426.8423.3

430.8

400.0

410.0

420.0

430.0

440.0

393.5

384.9389.5

350 0

360.0

370.0

380.0

390.0

350.0

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

3

Average releases and discharges per monthg g p

1,773.1

1,789.61,798.8

1,780.91,760.0

1,780.0

1,800.0

1,820.0Average number of monthly release and discharges

1,728.8

1,703.3

1,720.11,706.5

1,680.0

1,700.0

1,720.0

1,740.0

1,640.0

1,660.0

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Monthly Average = Annual monthly releases and discharges divided by 12. 2012 Figure calculated through August ‐ total was divided by 8

4

Monthly Criminal Arrests in CTMonthly Criminal Arrests in CT

8,7938 368

10,6319,866

10,37210,8479,773

10,6179,792

9,0728 66010,000

12,000

8,543

8,249

8,660

8,406

9,067

8,343

9,495

9,287 8,009

8,196

7,678

7,132

,8,368 8,660

7,998

4 000

6,000

8,000

0

2,000

4,000

JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC

Criminal arrests, 2012

Criminal arrests, 2011

119,432 118,940 115,601 115,337 114,011 117,196124,249

114,156 114,789100 000110,000120,000130,000

101,065

80,00090,000100,000

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

5

System chart – Monthly Indicators Report (Sept 2012)

6

RREC: releases and discharges

Between October 5, 2011 and September 5,2012, 8,941 offenders were eligible to earn RREC

g

, gonly 8,700 were awarded RREC.

1200

501584

493 507 512408 466 440 393

431

400

600

800

1000 Other From facilities From community

177

600455

327 303 354 306 309 343 334 393

22

77

220

200

Oct. 201

Nov. 201

Dec. 201

Jan. 201

Feb. 20 1

Mar. 201

Apr. 201

May 201

Jun. 201

Jul. 2012

Aug. 201

Sept.20111 11

11 2 12 12

12 12

12 2 12 12

8

This analysis augments a similar OPM analysis presented to CJPAC in September 2012.

Days of credit earned by RREC receivers

The average offender who was granted RREC earned 60.4 days. yThe median offender earned 32 days of RREC.

300

350

C

Median RREC awarded: 32 0 days

100

150

200

250

300

nders receiving

RREC

Average RREC awarded: 60.4 days

32.0 days

0

50

100

1 8 15 22 29 36 43 50 57 64 71 78 85 92 99106113120127134141148155162169176183190197204211218225232239246254261269276283290297304311318326333340347354363376

Offen

RREC days awarded

What do we know so far?Can we determine the recidivism rate for offenders who earned RREC?who earned RREC?How does it compare to other groups of offenders?

9

B O b 5 2011 d S b 5 2012Between October 5, 2011 and September 5, 2012, 8,941 offenders discharged from prison having earned RRECof these, 8,700 were awarded RREC

60

80

100

120

140FACILITY COMM

0

20

40

10/5/2011

10/12/20…

10/19/20…

10/26/20…

11/2/2011

11/9/2011

11/16/20…

11/23/20…

11/30/20…

12/7/2011

12/14/20…

12/21/20…

12/28/20…

1/4/2012

1/11/201 2

1/18/2012

1/25/2012

2/1/2012

2/8/2012

2/15/201 2

2/22/2012

2/29/2012

3/7/2012

3/14/201 2

3/21/2012

3/28/2012

4/4/2012

4/11/201 2

4/18/2012

4/25/2012

5/2/2012

5/9/2012

5/16/201 2

5/23/2012

5/30/2012

6/6/2012

6/13/201 2

6/20/2012

6/27/2012

7/4/2012

7/11/201 2

7/18/2012

7/25/2012

8/1/2012

8/8/2012

8/15/201 2

8/22/2012

8/29/2012

9/5/2012

By September 5, 2012, there were 1,403 readmissions to prison by these 8,941 men.

1 … … … 1 1 … … … 1 … … … 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2

These 1,403 admissions were made by 1,202 offenders

What about recidivism rates?

10

Recidivist: the simplest definition; a convicted criminal who reoffends

Recidivism rates describe how long, and the manner in which groups of offenders return tomanner in which groups of offenders return to the system

There are three main concerns:1. What events constitute recidivism

h d d2. Cohort size and composition, and 3. What is a meaningful study interval.

11

40

60

80

100

120

140FACILITY COMM

0

20

40

10/5/2011

10/12/20 …

10/19/20…

10/26/20…

11/2/2011

11/9/2011

11/16/20 …

11/23/20…

11/30/20…

12/7/2011

12/14/20 …

12/21/20…

12/28/20…

1/4/2012

1/11/2012

1/18/2012

1/25/2012

2/1/2012

2/8/2012

2/15/2012

2/22/2012

2/29/2012

3/7/2012

3/14/2012

3/21/2012

3/28/2012

4/4/2012

4/11/2012

4/18/2012

4/25/2012

5/2/2012

5/9/2012

5/16/2012

5/23/2012

5/30/2012

6/6/2012

6/13/2012

6/20/2012

6/27/2012

7/4/2012

7/11/2012

7/18/2012

7/25/2012

8/1/2012

8/8/2012

8/15/2012

8/22/2012

8/29/2012

9/5/2012

Some patience is required – the clock must run.

60

80

100

120

140

FACILITY COMM

Six months

0

20

40

60

05‐Oct‐1

12‐Oct‐1

19‐Oct‐1

26‐Oct‐1

02‐Nov‐

09‐Nov‐

16‐Nov‐

23‐Nov‐

30‐Nov‐

07‐Dec‐

14‐Dec‐

21‐Dec‐

28‐Dec‐

04‐Jan‐1

11‐Jan‐1

18‐Jan‐1

25‐Jan‐1

01‐Feb‐

08‐Feb‐

15‐Feb‐

22‐Feb‐

29‐Feb‐

07‐Mar‐

14‐Mar‐

21‐Mar‐

28‐Mar‐

04‐Apr‐1

11‐Apr‐1

18‐Apr‐1

25‐Apr‐1

02‐May

09‐May

16‐May

23‐May

30‐May

06‐Jun‐1

13‐Jun‐1

20‐Jun‐1

27‐Jun‐1

04‐Jul‐1

11‐Jul‐1

18‐Jul‐1

25‐Jul‐1

01‐Aug‐

08‐Aug‐

15‐Aug‐

22‐Aug‐

29‐Aug‐

05‐Sep‐

Six months

Six months

11 11 11 11 ‐11

‐11

‐11

‐11

‐11

‐11

‐11

‐11

‐11

12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12

‐12

‐12

‐12

‐12

12 12 12 12 ‐12

‐12

‐12

‐12

‐12

12 12 12 12 2 2 2 2 12 12 12 12 12

12

12

OPM had been publishing annual recidivismOPM had been publishing annual recidivism studies of Connecticut prisoners for almost a decade.decade.OPM:

Uses data supplied by the DOC, the State Police and the Judicial Branch (CSSD)Applies a consistent methodology to our studies based on US DOJ practicepHas developed excellent benchmark data

In our annual reports we trackN tNew arrests New convictionsReincarceration events, and New prison sentences

13

Typical analysis: 4 types of recidivism,offenders released or discharge during 2005offenders released or discharge during 2005

70%3‐Year Recidivsm Rates for CT Offenders Released in 2005

50%

60%

30%

40%

nt o

f co

hort

20%

Cum

ulat

ive

perc

en

New Arrest

Return to Prison

New Conviction (CCH)

0%

10%

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36

Months since 2005 release/discharge

( )

New Prison Sentence


14

Measuring recidivism – Data Required + Time

60%


Judicial, State Police data

50%

DOC Data

30%

40%

cent

of c

ohor

t

DOC Data

20%

Cum

ulat

ive

perc

New Arrest

Return to Prison


0%

10%

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36


New Prison Sentence


Time to let outcomes accumulate. 15

Measuring recidivism – 4 measures over time

60%


67.5%

3 6%

50%

53.6%53.7%

30%

40%

cent

of c

ohor

t 36.6%

20%

Cum

ulat

ive

perc

New Arrest

Return to Prison


0%

10%

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36


New Prison Sentence


Predictive and stable 16

RREC offenders:Return to prison w/in 12 monthsReturn to prison w/in 12 months

35.0%

40.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

%

26.0%

0 0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

Return to prison provide the quickest measure of recidivism

0.0%

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12Months since release/discharge

Return to prison provide the quickest measure of recidivism. For the 3,279 offenders who had earned RREC between October 1, 2011 and January 31, 2012:

• 853 (26%) were back in prison* within 12 months• 853 (26%) were back in prison within 12 months

17

* Includes new pre‐trial admits, remands for tech. and crim. violations and self‐surrendering.

RREC offenders v. 2008 cohortReturn to prison w/in 12 months

35 0%

40.0%

2008 h t % 33 5%

Return to prison w/in 12 months

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0% 2008 cohort, cum %

RREC cohort, cum %33.5%

26.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

In 2008 16 286 offenders were discharged or released from prison In the

0.0%


In 2008, 16,286 offenders were discharged or released from prison. In the 12 months after release, 33.5% were returned to prison

Among 3 279 offenders receiving RREC between October and JanuaryAmong 3,279 offenders receiving RREC between October and January, 26% were returned to prison.

18

RREC offenders v. the 2008 & 2005 cohortsReturn to prison w/in 12 months

35.0%

40.0%

2005 cohort, cum %34.2%33.5%

Return to prison w/in 12 months

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%2008 cohort, cum %

RREC cohort, cum % 26.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

0.0%


16,241 offenders were discharged or released from prison during 2005. These offenders returned to prison at rates consistent with offenders in the 2008 release/discharge cohortthe 2008 release/discharge cohort.

19

Why offenders returnedRREC and 2008 cohortsRREC and 2008 cohorts

RREC cohort2008 cohort

Pre trial admit, 83.1%Pre trial

admit, 50.8%Tech

violation, 31.1%

Tech violation, 5 5%

New sentence

Crim violation

Other, 2.2%New sentence, 6.3%

Crim violation

Other, 3.1%5.5%sentence,

6.3%violation, 2.8%

violation, 8.6%

For offenders released in 2008, 31% were returned to prison for technical violations of the terms of DOC community releasetechnical violations of the terms of DOC community release.

Among RREC offenders, remands to prison for technical violations dropped to under 6%

20

dropped to under 6%.

Return to prison2005 cohort

34%40%

21%

34%

20%

25%

30%

35% 2005 cohort, cum %

5%

10%

15%

20%

0%

5%

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Among offenders released or discharged in 2005 :34% h d b t d t i ithi 12 th34% had been returned to prison within 12 months.

21

Return to prison2005 cohort

34%35%

40%

2005 cohort, cum %

21%

14%

26%

20%

25%

30%2005 cum %, Excl. TV

14%

0%

5%

10%

15%

0%

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

When technical violations were excluded, only 26% of offenders discharged in 2005 were reincarcerated within 12 months.

22

Return to prison, 2005 cohort and RREC cohort

35%

40%

2005 cohort, cum %

Months since release or discharge

2005 cohort, cum%

2005 cum % Excl TV

RREC cohort, cum

%

20%

25%

30%

35%

2005 cum %, Excl. TV

RREC cohort, cum %

discharge cum % %, Excl. TV %1 3.1% 2.1% 1.7%2 6.7% 4.4% 3.7%3 10.8% 7.1% 6.6%4 14.3% 9.6% 9.3%5 17 9% 12 2% 11 4%

5%

10%

15%

5 17.9% 12.2% 11.4%6 20.7% 14.3% 13.5%7 23.6% 16.6% 16.0%8 25.9% 18.4% 18.4%9 28.1% 20.3% 20.4%10 30.2% 22.0% 22.6%

0%

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

0 30. % .0% .6%11 32.2% 23.8% 24.5%12 34.2% 25.5% 26.0%

It is not coincidental that the 2005 RTP rates that exclude technical violations and the RREC RTP rates are so similar.

23

Summary of the analysis12‐month recidivism rates for offenders discharged with RREC were significantly lower than the rates for offenders di h d d i 2005 d 2008discharged during 2005 and 2008.

The difference in rates appears to be largely accounted for by the drop in the number of returns‐to‐prison for technical violations.

When technical violations were removed – the recidivism rates for both 2005 and 2008 cohorts declined to a level

i t t ith th t f th RREC ff dconsistent with that of the RREC offenders.

24

Imnate id NameTPAI score

Sentence, days

Suspended after, days

Date sentenced

Last DOC admit

Actual release

date

Estimated min. release

dateActual days incarcerated

Percent incarcera

ted Release type1 95277 WILSON,MARVIN 5 2920 2190 5/22/2003 3/18/2002 3/17/2008 3/16/2008 2,191 100% eos to SP2 302350 PHILLIPS,WADSWORT 5 6570 2190 4/30/2003 7/9/2002 7/8/2008 7/7/2008 2,191 100% eos ‐ jamaican citizen3 268936 SALABERRIOS NOEL 5 3650 365 9/19/2007 1/29/2007 1/29/2008 1/29/2008 365 100% eos3 268936 SALABERRIOS,NOEL 5 3650 365 9/19/2007 1/29/2007 1/29/2008 1/29/2008 365 100% eos4 306755 COLE,KEVIN 5 5100 2190 4/21/2004 12/4/2002 12/2/2008 12/2/2008 2,190 100% eos ‐jamaican citizen5 324484 PASCAL,BRENT 5 2555 1095 2/3/2006 2/2/2005 2/2/2008 2/2/2008 1,095 100% eos, dominican citizen6 338290 GUIRAND,FRITZ D 5 1460 365 7/9/2007 7/9/2007 7/8/2008 7/8/2008 365 100% eos7 306991 PADILLA,JIMMY JERRY 5 2920 1825 7/3/2003 6/30/2003 6/27/2008 6/28/2008 1,824 100% eos honduran citizen8 306997 PADILLA,JIM HARRY 5 2920 1825 7/3/2003 6/30/2003 6/27/2008 6/28/2008 1,824 100% eos honduran citizen9 326259 ROBINSON,STEFAN N 5 3650 1460 11/4/2005 2/10/2005 12/15/2008 2/9/2009 1,404 96% parole

10 297007 HARRISON PAUL 5 4745 2555 2/14/2003 12/21/2001 7/29/2008 12/19/2008 2 412 94% l10 297007 HARRISON,PAUL 5 4745 2555 2/14/2003 12/21/2001 7/29/2008 12/19/2008 2,412 94% parole11 57999 CIANCI,RICHARD 5 3650 1825 5/28/2004 9/14/2003 5/27/2008 9/12/2008 1,717 94% parole12 267655 DONNELLY,MICHAEL 5 2190 2190 6/26/2003 4/10/2003 11/12/2008 4/8/2009 2,043 93% parole13 283901 RESTO,FRANKIE 5 4745 2250 1/23/2007 7/31/2006 4/12/2012 9/27/2012 2,082 93% eos, RREC14 218881 ARRIAGA,ANGEL 5 5110 2190 7/17/2003 9/30/2002 4/14/2008 9/28/2008 2,023 92% parole15 300392 EVANS,ALEX GODFREY 5 4380 2555 7/21/2003 4/29/2002 9/19/2008 4/27/2009 2,335 91% eos16 319251 ROSS,NNAMDII R 5 3650 1350 7/20/2005 11/8/2004 3/25/2008 7/20/2008 1,233 91% parole

/ / / / / / / / %17 329194 SCOTT,BERNARD 5 2555 1260 9/16/2005 3/3/2005 4/18/2008 8/14/2008 1,142 91% CR18 291885 GARDNER,DERMAINE 5 3650 1825 7/1/2004 3/18/2004 9/15/2008 3/17/2009 1,642 90% CR19 275238 PETTWAY,MARQUIS 5 6570 3560 9/6/2000 7/6/1999 4/10/2008 4/4/2009 3,201 90% parole20 309283 BANTON,STEVE ANTHO 5 1980 1980 11/14/2003 10/18/2003 7/8/2008 3/20/2009 1,725 87% CR21 290232 QUINONES,ALEXIS 5 2555 2555 4/1/2002 5/22/2001 5/10/2007 5/20/2008 2,179 85% parole22 13239 BURNEY,LEONARD 5 3650 3650 9/10/1998 2/9/1998 8/17/2006 2/7/2008 3,111 85% CR23 316012 KRASOWSKI,THOMAS 5 3650 1825 10/7/2004 8/26/2004 11/14/2008 8/25/2009 1,541 84% CR24 316759 JACKSON,ERICK 5 3650 1825 4/30/2004 11/21/2003 1/28/2008 11/19/2008 1,529 84% CR25 56811 DAVENPORT,DAVID 5 3650 3650 5/26/2000 3/12/1999 7/10/2007 3/9/2009 3,042 83% CR26 316046 HENNEBERRY,MATTHE 5 4380 1825 10/22/2004 4/3/2004 5/14/2008 4/2/2009 1,502 82% CR27 180152 DIAZ,SIGFREDO 5 5840 2920 6/7/2002 9/4/2001 3/31/2008 9/2/2009 2,400 82% CR28 326633 GREENE,DONALD L 5 2920 1825 9/2/2005 11/22/2004 10/10/2008 11/21/2009 1,418 78% CR29 307859 MARTIN,KENNETH JAQ 5 3650 1825 4/12/2004 12/15/2003 10/29/2007 12/13/2008 1,414 77% CR30 334848 GARAY,JOEL 5 2555 1095 5/25/2006 10/3/2005 1/17/2008 10/2/2008 836 76% CR31 323836 RICHARDSON,STEVEN 5 4830 1825 11/21/2005 8/17/2004 6/4/2008 8/16/2009 1,387 76% CR32 323923 CLARK,MATTHEW T 5 4830 1825 5/16/2005 12/16/2004 9/24/2008 12/15/2009 1,378 76% CR33 319304 JOYCE,ROBERT 5 4380 1620 12/6/2004 3/20/2004 7/26/2007 8/26/2008 1,223 75% CR34 326299 JOHNSON,TYRON 5 3650 1095 11/4/2005 2/10/2005 5/8/2007 2/10/2008 817 75% CR35 318864 SMITH,STEVEN T 5 3650 1825 11/3/2004 9/28/2004 6/17/2008 9/27/2009 1,358 74% CR36 332067 LEE,DAVID 5 3650 1460 6/24/2005 6/24/2005 5/28/2008 6/23/2009 1,069 73% CR37 276654 HARRELL,JAMES C 5 6570 1825 11/10/2005 5/25/2003 1/19/2007 5/23/2008 1,335 73% CR

25

38 325118 VILLEGAS,RAFAEL 5 2920 1260 2/4/2005 9/28/2004 3/22/2007 3/11/2008 905 72% CR39 348087 ARCE,LUIS 5 2920 730 2/9/2007 2/9/2007 7/9/2008 2/8/2009 516 71% CR40 343504 PASK,BENJAMIN 5 3650 1095 8/30/2006 8/30/2006 8/21/2008 8/29/2009 722 66% CR41 323818 HANSON,JEROME 5 2555 1460 7/8/2005 8/16/2004 2/19/2007 8/15/2008 917 63% CR42 349906 MOISE,JOHN 5 4380 900 12/20/2007 4/26/2007 10/10/2008 10/12/2009 533 59% CR

93%100%

120%

93%

59%60%

80%

100%

0%

20%

40%

32625929700757999267655F. RESTO2188813003923192513291942918852752383092833092832902321323931601231675956811316046180152326633307859334848323836323923319304326299318864332067276654325118348087343504323818349906

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rrec – the administrationadministrations’s perspective · 2013-03-25 · rrec: releases and...

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