Competitive Research and Actionable Product Recommendations

RPG REPORT

TABLE OF CONTENTS

JANUARY

2021

IMPACT DRIVER 3

High-Level Expansion Feature Doom Tower in RAID: Shadow Legends Product Insights

IMPACT TRENDS 8

RPG Feature Releases by Type Expansion Feature Impact Analysis

NEW CONTENT 11

Content Releases

MARKET WATCH 15

Soft-Launch & Breakout Apps Notable Releases

APPENDIX 20

RAID: Shadow Legends Release Schedule Liquid & Grit RPG Personas Premium Partnerships RPG Mechanics Taxonomy

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IMPACT DRIVERFeatures and events that boost revenue, retention, or downloads

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RPG > FEATURES > EXPANSIONS

High-Level Expansion Feature Doom Tower in RAID: Shadow Legends

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RAID: Shadow Legends

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6K

12K

18K

24K

30K

Reve

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per D

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$100K

$200K

$300K

$400K

$500K

10/15/20 10/29/20 11/12/20 11/26/20 12/10/20 12/24/20 1/7/21

Revenue Downloads

REVENUE ANALYSIS

RAID: Shadow Legends' revenue was +14% with downloads +97% MoM after the launch of Doom Tower.

MoM = Month over month. Graph data is iOS, U.S. only.

Doom Tower

See the Appendix for a full release schedule.

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FEATURE TEARDOWN

An expansion feature offers 120 stages at two difficulty levels, including 12 bosses. Progress resets each month, and bosses can be replayed for additional rewards.

Details • Players battle through 120 floors to reach the top of a tower (1, 2, and video). • Every 10th floor is a boss battle with bosses pulled from across the game. • Twelve secret rooms each have unique rules (3). • Every floor grants a reward on the first completion.

• Floors require gold or silver keys to play. • Players receive 10 of each key per day. • Gold keys grant access to floors and bosses on the first playthrough. • Silver keys grant access to secret rooms and allow players to replay bosses

for additional rewards. • Each month, tower progress resets, bosses change, and secret rooms get

new rules (4). • The tower can be played at two difficulty levels, each with unique rewards. • Rewards include feature-specific resources that can be used to unlock

exclusive heroes and equipment. • A feature-specific $19.99 IAP offers five days of drip rewards (5).

Additional Information • See the Doom Tower library for more images and videos.

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3

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2

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Don't stop at new levels—add new stories and gameplay systems, too. While new mission or quest areas are staples of expansions, make sure they aren't just more of the same. The most comprehensive expansions add to overarching narratives and even offer new gameplay systems.

For example, Empires & Puzzles' Season III expansion led to a +23% MoM revenue increase by focusing heavily on new heroes and embracing a Norse mythology-inspired narrative. In contrast, RAID's Doom Tower doesn't provide much in the way of story. A stronger narrative context would create more enduring goals and give additional meaning to the expansion's unlockable heroes and artifacts.1

On the other hand, Doom Tower employs a fresh quest system by having players ascend a tower, battle bosses from across the game world, and unlock secret rooms that have special rules. AFK Arena introduced an equally novel structure during its Voyage of Wonders quest event that built puzzles directly into level maps and helped increase revenue +24% WoW (1).

Offer optional end-game challenge modes for high achievers. Doom Tower appeals to high-level players with two difficulty levels and monthly resets that rotate bosses and secret rooms. The secondary rewards for replaying bosses provide additional incentives for return play, but allowing players to ratchet up the difficulty on subsequent playthroughs would create even more top-tier content.

This can be seen in AFK Arena's Trials of God, which let players apply a wide range of conditions to make levels harder and saw a +72% MoM revenue increase (2). Alternatively, Doom Tower could offer extra-difficult versions of bosses or even allow players to battle multiple bosses at once. Adding one or two prestigious rewards for the most difficult challenges would likely further boost engagement, since achievement-based rewards increase intrinsic motivation.2

Give long progressions compelling midpoints. A month-long set of 120 levels is a long way to go. The ten-level intervals with boss battles break it up nicely, but a more notable battle at the halfway mark would create a strong medium-term goal. Player motivation is lowest at the middle of a progression, so a big win with an exciting reward could help them get over the hump.3

1 Narratives and Goals: Narrative Structure Increases Goal Priming, p. 12  Materialising Digital Collecting: An Extended View of Digital Materiality

2 Achievement-Based Rewards and Intrinsic Motivation: A Test of Cognitive Mediators 3 Stuck in the Middle: The Psychophysics of Goal Pursuit

PRODUCT INSIGHTS

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Tracked RPG Apps: AFK Arena, BLEACH Brave Souls, Dragon Ball Legends, Empires & Puzzles, Epic Seven, Final Fantasy XV: A New Empire, Fire Emblem Heroes, Guns of Glory, King of Avalon: Dragon Warfare, Last Shelter: Survival, Lords Mobile: War Kingdom, MARVEL Strike Force, RAID: Shadow Legends, Rise of Kingdoms, Star Trek Fleet Command, Star Wars: Galaxy of Heroes, Summoners War

IMPACT TRENDSRevenue and market share impacts for event and feature releases

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Num

ber o

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ease

s

30

60

90

Clu

bs

Colle

ctio

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Flow

s

Expa

nsio

ns

Leve

ls

Cur

renc

ies

Com

petit

ions

Acce

lera

tors

Confl

icts

Cosm

etic

s

Miss

ions

Not

ices

Profi

les

Que

sts

Rew

ards

Cha

lleng

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Oth

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Purc

hase

s

Inte

ract

ions

RPG Feature Releases by Type (2020)

EXPANSIONS AMONG MOST RELEASED FEATURES

Expansion and level features tied for the fourth most released feature type in tracked RPG apps in 2020.

Collected data is based on Liquid & Grit's feature taxonomy for tracked RPG apps. Only feature types with 10 or more releases in 2020 are shown.

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Market Share Growth MoM (2020)

Missions

Currencies

Accelerators

Levels

Collections

Competitions

Conflicts

Notices

Expansions

Flows

Cosmetics

Clubs

-5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20%

EXPANSIONS PRODUCE LIMITED MARKET SHARE GROWTH

Expansion feature releases saw a relatively small average market share growth of +2.1% MoM in 2020. However, two other frequently released features—clubs and flows—had similarly low impacts.

Revenue Growth MoM (2020)

Missions

Currencies

Accelerators

Levels

Collections

Competitions

Conflicts

Notices

Expansions

Flows

Cosmetics

Clubs

0% 5% 10% 15% 20%Impact models are made by Liquid & Grit by combining our data with revenue data from Sensor Tower. Only feature types with 30 or more releases in 2020 are shown. MoM = Month over month.

Market share growth is the average percentage change in an app's revenue market share for a given time period following a new release. Revenue growth is the average percentage change in gross revenue during the same period.

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NEW CONTENTNew heroes, equipment, and abilities

CONTENT RELEASES I

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RPG > Content > Abilities, Equipment, and Heroes

12/15 12/15 12/15 12/22 12/22 12/22 12/29 12/29 12/29 12/13 12/16 12/28 12/31

12/2 12/2 12/9 12/9

12/16 12/23 12/23 12/29

Hero Adjustments and Changes — AFK Arena abilities Shroud of Verdure — AFK Arena equipment Alna — AFK Arena hero (1) Frozen Enchantress — AFK Arena equipment The Glacial Child — AFK Arena equipment Winter Reaper — AFK Arena equipment Hero Adjustments and Changes — AFK Arena abilities Joker — AFK Arena hero (2) Queen — AFK Arena hero (3) New Resurrection Characters — BLEACH Brave Souls abilities Christmas Summons: Snow Dream — BLEACH Brave Souls heroes (4) New Resurrection Characters — BLEACH Brave Souls abilities Thousand-Year Blood War Round 14 — BLEACH Brave Souls heroes Zenkai Awakening - Gotenks — Dragon Ball Legends abilities (5) Awakened Let's go, Vegeta! No. 1 — Dragon Ball Legends equipment Zenkai Awakening - Frieza — Dragon Ball Legends abilities Zenkai Awakening - Super Gogeta — Dragon Ball Legends abilities Awakened I can tell. No. 1 — Dragon Ball Legends equipment The Broly — Dragon Ball Legends heroes (6) The Gogeta — Dragon Ball Legends heroes Awakened He's a Saiyan! No. 1 — Dragon Ball Legends equipment

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6

4

1

5

3

CONTENT RELEASES II

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2

6

4

1

5

3

RPG > Content > Abilities, Equipment, and Heroes

12/30 12/1 12/1

12/24 12/10 12/10 12/17 12/17 12/24 12/24 12/24

12/7 12/8 12/8

12/10 12/17 12/18 12/25 12/25

12/7 12/22

Zenkai Awakening - Broly: Fury — Dragon Ball Legends abilities Reuben — Empires & Puzzles hero (1) Seasonal Summon — Empires & Puzzles heroes Lord Loki — Empires & Puzzles hero (2) A Symbol of Unity — Epic Seven equipment Operator Sigret — Epic Seven hero (3) Ancient Dragon's Legacy — Epic Seven equipment Mort — Epic Seven hero Fairy Tale for a Nightmare — Epic Seven equipment Two New Exclusive Equipment — Epic Seven equipment Fairytale Tenebria — Epic Seven hero (4) Weapon Refinery Update — Fire Emblem Heroes abilities Book V Begins: Reginn and More — Fire Emblem Heroes heroes Knoll: Darkness Watcher — Fire Emblem Heroes hero (5) Niles: Cruel to Be Kind — Fire Emblem Heroes hero Special Heroes: A Festive Miracle — Fire Emblem Heroes heroes (6) Felix: Icy Gift Giver — Fire Emblem Heroes heroes Delthea: Free Spirit — Fire Emblem Heroes hero Lilina: Firelight Leader — Fire Emblem Heroes hero R8 Sky Gold Airship Parts — Guns of Glory equipment Immortal Gemstone — King of Avalon: Dragon Warfare equipment

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CONTENT RELEASES III2

6

4

1

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RPG > Content > Abilities, Equipment, and Heroes

12/4 12/8 12/8

12/18 12/19

12/3 12/3 12/7 12/7

12/14 12/15 12/25

12/3 12/4 12/9 12/9 12/3 12/3

12/16 12/3

12/14

Cottageroar Set — Lords Mobile: War Kingdom equipment (1) Character Ability and Trait Updates — MARVEL Strike Force abilities Shatterstar — MARVEL Strike Force hero Longshot — MARVEL Strike Force hero Yelena Belova — MARVEL Strike Force hero (2) Champions and Battle fixes — RAID: Shadow Legends abilities Artifact Set Rebalance — RAID: Shadow Legends equipment Doom Tower Artifacts — RAID: Shadow Legends equipment Doom Tower Champions – RAID: Shadow Legends heroes Pyxniel — RAID: Shadow Legends hero (3) Winter Champions — RAID: Shadow Legends heroes Double Holiday Summon Draft — RAID: Shadow Legends heroes Nebuchadnezzar II — Rise of Kingdoms hero Cyrus the Great — Rise of Kingdoms hero (4) Sarcophagus — Star Trek Fleet Command equipment Discovery Part 4 Officers — Star Trek Fleet Command heroes (5) Demoralized — Star Wars: Galaxy of Heroes ability Moff Gideon — Star Wars: Galaxy of Heroes hero (6) The Mandalorian (Beskar Armor) — Star Wars: Galaxy of Heroes hero Holidays Special Transmogs — Summoners War equipment Howl and Grim Reaper 2nd Awakening — Summoners War abilities

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MARKET WATCHNew apps and notable releases from established competitors

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Perfect World VNG: Fly With Me by VNG Game StudiosApp Details • This 3D open-world MMORPG evokes PC MMOs with a seamless world, innovative flying

mechanics, and boss raids (1). • Players choose their character's race, class, and appearance via an unusually extensive

customization system (2). • A wide range of player interactions include physical emotes and in-game weddings with

invitations, gifts, and parties (3). • PvP includes open-world combat and arena modes for a variety of team sizes.

Launch Information • Soft-launched on 10/17/20 in the Philippines, Thailand, and Indonesia • Average daily revenue (90 days): $2,879 • Average daily downloads (90 days): 341 • View Perfect World VNG: Fly With Me on the App Store

SOFT-LAUNCH APP

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3Liquid & Grit's Take

While open-world MMOs are the backbone of the Asian mobile RPG scene, they haven't caught on to the same extent in the U.S. and Europe. Genshin Impact is currently the only open-world MMO to reliably crack the 50 highest-grossing RPGs in the U.S., although it consistently ranks in the top 10.

That could mean there's opportunity for a competitor like Perfect World, or it could mean there just isn't much demand for this type of app in the West. Still, the fact that Perfect World currently ranks among the top 10 RPGs in two out of three of its test markets (the Philippines and Indonesia) bodes well for its success in Asia.

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NARUTO X BORUTO NINJA TRIBES by BANDAI NAMCO Entertainment Inc.App Details • Players build teams of characters from the Naruto manga/anime universe for turn-based battles (1). • Artwork and animations imitate the style of the TV show (2). • Players choose from upcoming attacks to build combos and target enemy weaknesses (3). • A tower mission feature maintains players' progress if they log in daily but resets if not. • Skill points must be spent on a timer. • Battles randomly award timed chests (4).

Launch Information • Released worldwide on 10/15/20 • 53rd highest-grossing RPG app as of 1/1/21 • Average daily U.S. revenue (90 days): $13,511 • Average daily U.S. downloads (90 days): 1,998 • View NARUTO X BORUTO NINJA TRIBES on the App Store

BREAKOUT APP

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NOTABLE RELEASES I

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App Release Description

AFK Arena

Forest Mania mini-game feature

• Players complete match-3 levels to advance on a quest map for rewards (1). • Points earned during levels fill a meter for more rewards at milestones. • New levels unlock based on campaign progress. • Friend and server-wide leaderboards for each level rank players based on points (video).

Hero Popularity other feature

• Three menus rank heroes based on their popularity for battle types, special equipment, and custom design boosts.

• Players can filter rankings by feature, battle, campaign progress, and hero type (2 and video).

Empires & Puzzles

Mythic Titan club event

• Individuals and clubs compete to deal the most damage to a boss (3 and video). • Each battle offers a choice between three difficulty levels. • Heroes begin to weaken if used for more than three battles. • Leaderboards rank players based on solo damage, single-attack damage, and club damage. • An event IAP bundle grants two sets of items: one for the purchaser and another for all club

members.

Last Shelter: Survival

Christmas Quiz mini-game event

• A trivia mini-game asks timed true-or-false questions about the game (4). • Each round contains up to 40 players. • Players can participate in three out of four scheduled rounds per day.

• Players answer questions by moving their avatar to either side of the screen (video). • Players who answer incorrectly are eliminated from the round. • Eliminated players earn a number of prizes determined by their number of correct answers.

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App Release Description

MARVEL Strike Force

Real-Time Arena competition feature

• Players choose five heroes for timed, turn-based PvP duels. • Turns must be completed within 15 seconds or they proceed automatically (1). • Players who miss three turns in a row forfeit the match.

• Players win by defeating all enemy heroes or having the most heroes when the timer expires. • Daily and weekly challenges award tokens. • Tokens fill a meter that advances players to the next reward tier when full (video). • A $19.99 season pass unlocks a second set of rewards for each tier. • A $39.99 season pass unlocks the second set of rewards and advances players 30 tiers.

Rise of Kingdoms

Esmeralda's House mini-game event

• Players spend gems to buy gacha pulls for prizes (2). • The value of each pull's prize always exceeds the gems spent on the pull. • Pulls fill a meter for additional rewards at milestones (video).

Treasure Hunt challenge event

• Players collect pieces of a treasure map by destroying barbarian forts, training troops, and making purchases in an exchange shop. • Club members can trade map pieces with one another.

• Completing the map reveals the location of a chest and starts a timer (3 and video). • Failing to claim the chest before the timer expires clears the current map and chest.

Summoners War

Ancient Transcendence Pack

purchase event• A $99.99 IAP bundle includes a summon of a rare hero not currently owned by the player (4).

NOTABLE RELEASES II

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Quickly review all features and events

Filter the Library Tool by month and year to see all new releases.

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APPENDIX

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RAID: Shadow Legends

Dow

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6K

12K

18K

24K

30K

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$100K

$200K

$300K

$400K

$500K

10/15/20 10/29/20 11/12/20 11/26/20 12/10/20 12/24/20 1/7/21

Revenue Downloads

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RAID: SHADOW LEGENDS RELEASE SCHEDULE

Graph data is iOS, U.S. only.

Releases

12/4–12/7: Global Summoning Boost accelerator event 12/7: Doom Tower expansion feature

• 12/7: Doom Tower Artifacts equipment content • 12/7: Doom Tower Champions hero content

12/7: $14.99 Medium Pack IAP moved +1 to #3 12/7–12/9: Champion Training Tournament competition event

12/7–12/9: Ice Golem Tournament competition event 12/8–12/12: Dungeon Divers Event challenge event 12/9:

• $29.99 Bulk Value Pack IAP moved +1 to #3 • $4.99 Mini Pack IAP moved +1 to #4

*No app version updates during this time frame

Doom Tower

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LIQUID & GRIT RPG PERSONAS

We collected and analyzed survey data from 1,415 mobile RPG players in the U.S. The results produced seven RPG player personas with distinct values, gameplay preferences, and spending habits.

See the full RPG Personas Report for detailed breakdowns of each player type.

Felicia Fiction seeks immersion through single-player stories with strong aesthetics. She likes turn-based or action RPGs that involve customization, meaningful choices, and emotionally difficult challenges. She spends money to personalize her experience.

Caleb Competition is drawn to multiplayer competitions, clubs, and hardcore gaming. He prefers MMORPGs with action gameplay and difficult challenges. As a result of his competitiveness, he makes purchases to be the best.

Andrew Achievement likes completing single-player tasks and overcoming challenges. His favorite subgenre is puzzle RPGs with innovative challenges and entertaining mini-games. He spends money to advance his progress.

Ethan Epic is a hardcore gamer who thrives on difficult challenges in both story-driven solo experiences and multiplayer competitions. Ethan plays the widest range of RPG subgenres and strives to optimize his play with out-of-the-box tactics and strategies. He spends primarily to support the games he likes.

Chloe Casual prefers single-player puzzle RPGs with casual mechanics. She likes custom cosmetics and spends primarily for personalization or access to special events.

Dean Desktop turns to mobile for convenient, short bursts of play. As a result, he is the lowest-spending player persona and is primarily interested in story-driven, single-player experiences. He likes action, survival, and turn-based RPGs with meaningful choices and active combat.

Steven Social is driven by social interactions, including both collaborative and competitive activities. He is the highest-spending persona and prefers MMORPGs or fighting RPGs. He spends money to be the best and show off to others.

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PREMIUM PARTNERSHIPS

Liquid & Grit partners with these premier market research and analytics companies to infuse our reports with the most relevant and detailed gaming user personas, data, and statistics available.

Quadrant Strategies Kinrate Analytics Sensor Tower

Market Research Quadrant Strategies

Player Personas Kinrate Analytics

Mobile App Store Intelligence Sensor Tower

Quadrant Strategies is a market research consultancy that uses research to help the world's most prominent technology, gaming, and entertainment companies develop strategies for building their user base, increasing user engagement and spend, and strengthening their marketing and brand plans.

We do that using a range of quantitative and qualitative methodologies, including gamer segmentation and persona development, feature testing, message creation, and loyalty and engagement modeling. The work of our senior leadership goes back many years, and includes long-term engagements for console and gaming-PC hardware-makers, individual games in a range of genres, and across consoles, PCs, and mobile, and for some of the top game franchises.

Kinrate Analytics offers game developers, consultants, publishers, and cloud gaming operators the best cross-platform game recommendation engine for targeted marketing, as well as a novel profiling-as-a-service solution for intelligent market segmentation and social networking.

Other services include advanced market prediction analyses for identifying emergent gaming trends and access to unique AI-enhanced data of 140 thousand game titles and 48 million game players.

The products of Kinrate Analytics have been developed in university-led research projects in collaboration with economists, psychologists, game scholars, and data scientists.

Sensor Tower is relied upon by financial analysts, VCs, and publishers who need to leverage data to identify the fastest-growing apps, emerging markets, and more.

Clients harness Sensor Tower's suite of app intelligence tools to:

‣ Evaluate app economies and app vitality. ‣ Drive organic growth with the leading App Store

Optimization platform. ‣ Get the best global download and revenue

estimates for the App Store and Google Play. ‣ Discover top creatives and better shape user

acquisition strategy.

RPG MECHANICS TAXONOMY

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Family Definition

Accelerators Increases the power, impact, or efficiency of play

Banks Saves a % of spend that can be unlocked later

Bonuses Free bonuses given to players (e.g., retention or W2E)

Challenges Goal-oriented tasks for players to complete

Clubs Groups that accomplish goals or compete with other groups

Collections A set of items players collect (often for a completion prize)

Competitions Players competing against other players

Conflicts Players engaging in battle with their characters 

Cosmetics Improvements or updates to the app or a feature

Currencies Changes to currencies, economies, stores, and items

Custom Design Options to customize aesthetics

Expansions Additional rooms, worlds, play modes, VIP lounges, etc.

Flows Specific flows, like the NUX, ratings, and surveys

Family Definition

Hazards Level elements/blockers that make levels more difficult

Interactions Social features with direct or indirect interaction

Leaderboards Stand-alone leaderboards

Levels Anything to do with leveling

Mini-Games Smaller, shorter games within a game (e.g., scratch cards)

Missions Linear sets of tasks that players must complete

Notices Feature or product announcements

Other Miscellaneous features and outliers

Profiles Players' setups, profiles, settings, and controls

Purchases Anything to do with purchases

Quests Tasks that players complete to progress along a map

Rewards Rewards players receive for engagement or spend (other than those in the bonuses family)

“So much to do, so little RAM."

— Tony Stark, Iron Man #290

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Brett.Nowak@LiquidandGrit.com

LiquidandGrit.com