[email protected] © university of reading 2009 eumetsat 2009 1 monitoring changes in...
TRANSCRIPT
[email protected]© University of Reading 2009EUMETSAT 2009 1
Monitoring changes in precipitation and radiative energy using satellite data and
climate modelsRichard P. Allan - University of Reading
Thanks to Viju John and Brian Soden
[email protected]© University of Reading 2009EUMETSAT 2009 2
• Increased Precipitation• More Intense Rainfall• More droughts• Wet regions get wetter,
dry regions get drier
Precipitation Change (%)
CLIMATE MODEL PROJECTIONS IPCC WGI
Precipitation Intensity
Dry Days
[email protected]© University of Reading 2009EUMETSAT 2009 3
Low-level water vapour rises with temperature at ~7%/K in models & observations
John et al. (2009) GRL
models
Wat
er V
apou
r (m
m)
[email protected]© University of Reading 2009EUMETSAT 2009 4
1979-2002
For a given precipitation event, more moisture would suggest more intense rainfall
Can realism of model projections be assessed?
[email protected]© University of Reading 2009EUMETSAT 2009 5
Frequency of rainfall intensities vary with
SST in models and obs
• Frequency of intense rainfall increases with warming in models and satellite data
• Model scaling close to 7%/K expected from Clausius Clapeyron
• SSM/I satellite data suggest a greater response of intense rainfall to warming
dP/dSST=7%/K
Allan and Soden (2008) Science
[email protected]© University of Reading 2009EUMETSAT 2009 6 Trenberth et al. (2009) BAMS
[email protected]© University of Reading 2009EUMETSAT 2009 7
Models simulate robust response of clear-sky radiation to warming (~2-3 Wm-2K-1) and a resulting
increase in precipitation to balance (~3 %K-1) e.g. Allen and Ingram (2002) Nature, Lambert & Webb (2008) GRL
Rad
iativ
e co
olin
g, c
lear
(W
m-2K
-1)
Allan (2009) J Clim
[email protected]© University of Reading 2009EUMETSAT 2009 8
Contrasting precipitation response expected
Pre
cipi
tatio
n Heavy rain follows moisture (~7%/K)
Mean Precipitation linked to
radiation balance (~3%/K)
Light Precipitation (-?%/K)
Temperature
e.g.Held & Soden (2006) J. Clim; Trenberth et al. (2003) BAMS; Allen & Ingram (2002) Nature
[email protected]© University of Reading 2009EUMETSAT 2009 9
Contrasting precipitation response in ascending and descending portions of the tropical circulation
GPCP/NCEP Models
ascent
descent
Allan and Soden (2007) GRL
Pre
cipi
tatio
n ch
ange
(m
m/d
ay)
Allan and Soden (2007) GRL; John et al. (2009) GRL
[email protected]© University of Reading 2009EUMETSAT 2009 10
Contrasting precipitation response in ascending and descending portions of the tropical circulation
GPCP/NCEP Models
ascent
descent
Allan and Soden (2007) GRL
Pre
cipi
tatio
n ch
ange
(m
m/d
ay)
Land descent
Allan and Soden (2007) GRL; John et al. (2009) GRL
Updated analysis
[email protected]© University of Reading 2009EUMETSAT 2009 11
Estimated variability in longwave radiative cooling of the atmosphere and precipitation
John et al. (2009) GRL
[email protected]© University of Reading 2009EUMETSAT 2009 12
Allan et al. (2007) QJRMS
2008
Are the cloud feedback and water/energy cycles issues linked?
Combining GERB, CALIPSO and SSM/I
[email protected]© University of Reading 2009EUMETSAT 2009 13
Conclusions• Low level moisture responses robust
– Around 7%/K in models & SSM/I
• Explains enhanced frequency of intense rainfall with warming in models and obs– Differences between individual models/obs
• Mean and regional precipitation response: a tug of war – Slow rises in radiative cooling (~2-3 Wm-2K-1): robust in the models but
difficult to monitor using satellite data (CERES, GERB, SRB)– Rises in low-level moisture (~7%/K) faster than precipitation (~3%/K) – Reduced frequency? Rich get richer?– Who cares about drought/flooding over the ocean?
• Precipitation Responses appear larger in observations than models.– Could aerosol be influencing decadal variability in the hydrological cycle?– Are observing systems up to monitoring changes in water/energy cycles?– New NERC project PREPARE with Met Office/ETH Zurich starting soon
[email protected]© University of Reading 2009EUMETSAT 2009 14
Daily Satellite Microwave Observations over tropical ocean appear to confirm warmer months are associated with more frequent intense rainfall
Allan and Soden (2008) ScienceMore frequentLess frequent