roi oct 5 2010 mayoralty poll

8/8/2019 ROI Oct 5 2010 Mayoralty Poll

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Return On Insight Fall 2010 Update

ROI POLL OF CALGARIANS:

The race for Mayor has become a two-way fightbetween McIver and Higgins, with Nenshi in third

and all others well behind

This survey was conducted by Return On Insight (ROI) as part of its Fall 2010

Report. The survey took place between October 2nd and 4th by telephone utilizing

a random digit dial sample, ensuring all adult Calgarians had an equal chance of

being selected. This representative cross-section of 501 adult Calgarians is

accurate to within +/-4.4 percentage points at the 95% confidence level. In

other words, if the entire adult population of Calgary had been surveyed, the

results of such a census would not differ from this poll of 501 residents by more

than plus or minus 4.4 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

A recent poll of Calgarians conducted by Return On Insight indicates that Ric McIver

holds a slim 3 percentage point lead over Barb Higgins (31% to 28%), with NaheedNenshi running third (16%). All other candidates are polling at 3% or less, includingHawkesworth (3%), Burrows (2%), Stewart (2%), Connelly (1%) and Lord (1%).

Less than one fifth of the electorate (16%) are undecided with under 2 weeks to gobefore Election Day. [See Figure 1]

Among decided voters, the head to head battle between McIver and Higgins is apparent.McIver has the support of 37% of decided voters compared to 33% for Higgins. NaheedNenshi has pulled away from the crowded pack of other contenders into a solid third

place position with 19% of the decided vote. All other candidates combined have thesupport of the remaining 11% of the electorate. [See Figure 2]

Campaign momentum is positive for the three front-runners, with Nenshi registering thegreatest momentum in the past month (+14), followed by McIver (+9) and Higgins(+5). [See Figure 3]

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MEDIA RELEASE


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Bruce Cameron, the founder of ROI who conducted the poll as part of his companysquarterly reporting of Calgary issues, noted that:

The battle to become the next Mayor of Calgary is closer than many observers

had thought, with three candidates emerging from the crowded field that startedthe race on nomination day. While McIver continues to lead, as he has in mostpolls published during the campaign, his lead is in single digits, with Higgins

close behind and Nenshi in third place.

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For more information or an interview, contact:

Bruce CameronReturn On InsightCell: (403) 850-4068E-mail: [email protected]

Figure 1

Source: ROI Calgary Quarterly Report, Fall 2010

16%

1%

1%

2%

2%

3%

Mayoralty Vote Intention(Including Leaners)

Now thinking about the candidates runn ing for mayor, which candidate would you be most likely to

vote for? Even if you havent totally made up your mind right now, which candidate are you leaning

toward supporting?

*Note: Includes Leaners

All other candidates: less

than 1% of mentions

Base: All respondents ( n=501)

McIver

Higgins

Nenshi

Hawkesworth

Stewart

Burrows

Connelly

Lord

Undecided

16%

28%

31%


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Figure 2


1%

3%

3%

4%

Mayoralty Vote Intention(Among Decided Voters)

Now thinking about the cand idates running for mayor, which candidate would you be most likely tovote for? Even if you havent totally made up your mind right now, which candidate are you leaning

toward supporting?

*Note: Includes Leaners

Others: less

than 1% mentions

Base: Decided Voters (n=423) Figure 3


Campaign Momentum

in the Mayors Race

5%

7%

7%

12%

23%

25%

28% +14

5%

9%

5%

14%

14%

20%

14%Nenshi

(39% same,18% Unsure)

Worsened Improved

Higgins(43% same, 11% Unsure)

McIver(50% same, 12% unsure)

Hawkesworth(51% same, 24% Unsure)

Burrows(59% same, 29% Unsure)

Connelly(61% same, 29% Unsure)

Stewart(52% same, 31% Unsure)

Over the past month of the election campaign, has your opinion of the following candidates improved,stayed the same or has it worsened?

Base: All respondents ( n=501)

-2

+5

+9

-2

+2

McIver

Higgins

Nenshi

Hawkesworth

StewartBurrows

Others

33%

19%

37%

roi oct 5 2010 mayoralty poll

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