robin naylorppe society 30 th november 2009 1 socio-economic mobility and higher education 1.some...

Robin Naylor PPE Society 30th November 2009

1

Socio-economic Mobility and Higher Education

1. Some evidence on inter-generational mobility

2. The role of education

3. Returns to higher education

4. What has sex got to do with it?

5. Why is it more important to do well at university?


2


1. Evidence on inter-generational mobility

i. What would perfect mobility (= zero persistence) look like (S3)?

ii. Absolute immobility/persistence (S4)?

iii. Partial mobility/persistence (S5-6)?

iv. The evidence for the Nordic countries, the US and the UK:

a) What would you expect?

b) (The American Dream vs the rigidity of the Nanny State?

c) The evidence . . . (S7)

d) Digging deeper . . . Non-linearity


3



Yt-1

Yt

Yt = Yt-1

Perfect Mobility

x

x

x

x

x

x

x

x

xx

x

x

x

x


4



Yt-1

Yt

Yt = Yt-1

Perfect Immobility

x

x

x

x

x

x

x

x

xx

x

x

xx


5



Yt-1

Yt

Yt = Yt-1

Imperfect Mobility

x

xx

xxx

x

xx

xx x

x x


6



Yt-1

Yt

Yt = Yt-1

Regression line

x

xx

xxx

x

xx

xx x

x x


7



Yt-1

Yt

Yt = Yt-1

The US and Norway: which is which?

And where is the UK?


8


1. Evidence on inter-generational mobility . . . Digging deeper

Yt-1

Yt

Yt = Yt-1

Flat-bottoms?

x

x

xxx x

xx

xx

xx

xx


9


Digging deeper – Transition Matrices

SonFather oq1 oq2 oq3 oq4 oq5 fq1 0.303 0.235 0.165 0.174 0.122fq2 0.241 0.227 0.182 0.193 0.157fq3 0.188 0.195 0.227 0.206 0.184fq4 0.161 0.175 0.229 0.195 0.240fq5 0.107 0.168 0.197 0.231 0.297

An Intergenerational Income Mobility Transition Matrix: Father/Son; UK

Source: Naylor et al., using NCDS 1958 birth cohort data.


10



SonFather oq1 oq2 oq3 oq4 oq5 fq1 0.303 0.122fq2 fq3 fq4 fq5 0.107 0.297

An Intergenerational Income Mobility Transition Matrix: Father/Son; UK


11




An Intergenerational Income Mobility Transition Matrix: Father/Son; Norway

Less persistence at bottom in Norway than UK

More downward mobility in Norway than UK But High persistence at top


12




An Intergenerational Income Mobility Transition Matrix: Father/Son; US

Very high persistence at bottom

Very little downward mobility in the US


13


Why do we observe this flat-bottom pattern in the Nordic countries, but not in the UK or the US?

Hypotheses . . . ?


14








15


Pattern of mobility reflects educational structures

1012

1416

Mea

n ye

ars

of s

choo

ling

6 8 10 12

Denmark

1012

1416

6 8 10 12

Finland10

1214

16M

ean

yea

rs o

f sch

oolin

g

6 8 10 12

Norway

1012

1416

9 10 11 12 13

US


16


Changes over time: Pattern of mobility reflects educational structures

Note some evidence for the UK regarding changes in mobility over time following policy regime changes:

(i) Intergenerational Mobility of 1958 birth cohort greater than that of their parents

(comprehensive education, HE expansion)

(ii) Intergenerational Mobility of 1970 birth cohort less than that of the 1958 birth cohort

(HE expansion coupled with switch from grants to loans)


17








18


Current Policy Debate in the UK: Higher Fees/Differential Fees

Evidence from:

BCS70 (Smith, Naylor and Bratti) and from USR-HESA data (Smith and Naylor)

to show substantial and significant variation in the returns to a degree (around average of circa 18%) according to:

Subject Studied, Institution

Implications are . . . ?


19


But . . .

evidence also shows substantial and significant variation in the returns to a degree according to:

school background

social class background

degree class: the premium for a degree (relative to A-levels) of:

20% for a 2.1 or 1st

10% for a 2.2 or lower

Implications are . . . ?


20


Evidence also shows differences in HE performance by school background.

Implication is . . .?


21








22

Socio-economic Mobility and Higher Education Empirical indicators of marital sorting

Denmark Finland Norway UK US

Correlations in educational attainment

Female cohort members

Dk No UK US

self vs. husband .433 .495 .533 .562

her father vs. her mother .476 .489 .571 .627

her father vs. his father .153 .244 .359


23








24

Socio-economic Mobility and Higher Education Figure 5a: Coefficients on degree class variables over time ( constant earnings) - Males

-0.12

-0.10

-0.08

-0.06

-0.04

-0.02

0.00

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998

Year

Coe

ff

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robin naylorppe society 30 th november 2009 1 socio-economic mobility and higher education 1.some...

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