Robin EdwardsHampshire County Council

Population and Household Forecasts for Output Areas

Methods and Uses

Contents

• Land Availability Monitoring System (LAMS)

• Use of LAMS data in Population Forecasting Model

• Outline of Complete Small Area Population Forecasting Model (SAPF)

• Outputs from Model and Uses

Main Features of Land Availability Monitoring System (LAMS)

• Planning decision and planning monitoring system• All planning consents granted in the county• All sites allocated in local and structure plans• Record created for each site and mapped on to GIS• Development progress – starts, completions• Estimated phasing of outstanding development

Sites with Full Planning Permission

Dwellings by– Number– Type– Tenure– Number of bedrooms– Completion year(s), actual or

estimated

Remaining Sites

• Sites with Outline Planning Permission– Dwellings by number (estimated),

type, tenure and estimated completion year

• Allocated Sites– Dwellings by number and completion

year (both estimated)

LAMS Information into SAPF Model

For each record• Output area code via link with GIS• Number of completions by type,

tenure, number of bedrooms and year• Number of losses by year• Estimated phasing of outstanding

development on large sites by year (with details where known)

Output from LAMS; Input to SAPF

Year

OA TT11-73

TT11

TT21

TT31

TT41 TT51

TT61

TT71 TT12

2002

24UNGA0009

24 0 0 0 0 0 0 24

2002

24UNGA0010

27 2 15 6 4 0 0 0

2002

24UNGA0011

12 1 11 0 0 0 0 0

Estimating Future Completions on Small Sites

Sites not phased so estimates based on:

• Past completion trends• Past geographical distribution

Conversion of Dwelling Supply to Population

Dwellings Type/Tenure Occupancy Rates Source: HCC Home Movers Survey 2002

Tenure 1 1 Bed 2 Bed 3 Bed

Persons per

dwelling 1.4 1.7 2.2

Male 0-4 0.0 1.0 4.9

Male 5-10 0.0 2.1 2.0

Male 11-17 3.5 2.1 1.5

Male 18-24 13.4 2.1 2.0

Male 25-34 4.5 8.3 13.1

Basic Model Structure

• Demolitions Module • Natural Change Module• Out Migration Module• Dwelling Stock Gains Module• Other In Migration Module

Geographical Levels Recognised by Model

• Output Areas• Wards• Districts• National (County)

Age Ranges Recognised by Model

• Single year of age and gender• Quinary age groups by gender• Aggregated age groups by

gender

Demolitions Module Inputs

Data Geography

Age Distributions

Source

Private Household Population (PHPOP)

OA Single year of age

2001 Census

Dwelling Stock (DWS)

OA N/A 2001 Census

Dwelling Losses (DL)

OA N/A LAMS

Natural Change Module Inputs

Data Geography

Age Distribution

Source

Private Household Population

OA Single year of age

Demolitions Module

Fertility Rates (FR)

National Single year of age

GAD

Mortality Rates (MR)

National Single year of age

GAD

Actual Births Ward All ages of mother

Vital Statistics

Actual Deaths Ward 0-64, then quinary age groups

Vital Statistics

Out Migration Module Inputs

Data Geography

Age Distribution

Source

Private Household Population

OA Single year of age

Natural Change Module

Out Migration Propensities

Ward 5 year age groups

2001 Census

Inputs to In Migration to Existing Dwelling Stock

ModuleData Geography Source

Dwellings Ward Demolitions module

Vac Rate & Second Homes

Ward 2001 Census

Private Hhold Popn Ward Out Migration module

Hhold Representative Rates

Ward 2001 Census/DCLG

In Migration Propensities

Ward 2001 Census

England & Wales pop

National GAD

Constrained Final Population Forecast

• Basic assumption: in each district, rate of decline in average hhold size equals the average annual rate of decline between the two most recent censuses

Inputs Required to Calculate Constraints for Final Population

Data Age Distn

Geography

Source

Private Hhold Pop

District All ages In Migration Module

Hholds District All ages In Migration Module

Av Hhold Size

District N/A 1991/2001 Censuses

HHold Rep Rates

Ward Quinary age groups

In Migration Module

Model Outputs

Population by:• 100 age groups• 2 genders• 5,400 Output Areas• 7 Forecast Years from Base Year• Hholds by age and gender of Hhold

Rep• Total Dwelling Stock

Components of Forecast Population Change

• Births• Deaths• Out Migration due to Dwelling Stock

Loss• Out Migration from Existing Dwelling

Stock• In Migration to New Dwellings• In Migration to Existing Dwelling Stock

Derived Outputs• Parish• Ward• District• School Catchment Areas• Other Departmental

Service Areas• Urban Areas• PCTs• Ad Hoc Areas via GIS• Economic Activity• Any Age Range

Population by