robert j. nahigian, frics, sior, creoctober 30, 2009 auburndale realty co.toronto
DESCRIPTION
LIQUIDITY AND THE 2010 COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE MARKET: Connecting the Dots with Today’s Global Capital Flow. ROBERT J. NAHIGIAN, FRICS, SIOR, CREOctober 30, 2009 AUBURNDALE REALTY CO.Toronto NEWTON (Boston), MASS. PREDICTION DISCLAIMERS. GOVERNMENT INTERVENTION INFLATION CHAOS. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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LIQUIDITY AND THE 2010 COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE MARKET:
Connecting the Dots with Today’s Global Capital Flow
ROBERT J. NAHIGIAN, FRICS, SIOR, CREROBERT J. NAHIGIAN, FRICS, SIOR, CRE October 30, 2009October 30, 2009AUBURNDALE REALTY CO.AUBURNDALE REALTY CO. TorontoTorontoNEWTON (Boston), MASS.NEWTON (Boston), MASS.
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PREDICTION DISCLAIMERS
1. GOVERNMENT INTERVENTION
2. INFLATION
3. CHAOS
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OTHER DISCLAIMERSThe information presented reflects the personal opinions of Robert J. Nahigian based on sources and data believed to be reliable but he does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. This information is for private use and educational purposes only and neither the author, the sponsor nor the instructor are providing advice, legal or otherwise and such advise should be dependent on the facts and circumstances of any particular situation. There is no obligation to update or supplement this information at any time or in any way.
Robert J. Nahigian is not a registered investment advisor and as a further full disclaimer he does sit on the Advisory Committee of NERA, an American Stock Exchange Boston real estate investment entity in the business of purchasing and selling commercial properties. He is in no way recommending the purchase or disposition of any specific stock of any kind at any time.
The material presented may be inaccurate or may be improper for any business decision and some examples in this presentation are good examples of practices that would be better to avoid.
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CCIM Chicago: Jan. ‘08• LET’S LOOK BACK TO THAT
PRESENTATION: Where were we?
• CAN WE CONNECT THE DOTS MOVING FORWARD?
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U.S. CBD INVESTMENTS: Jan. ‘08
• One Word: Hot and more Hot !
• Values were up in 2006
• Values continued to rise in 2007
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LAST 2 YEARS: ’06-’07LAST 2 YEARS: ’06-’07
• It has been all about capital !
• You couldn’t fail with real estate investments
• A lot of money chasing deals and “yields”
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Next 2 Years: ’08-’09Next 2 Years: ’08-’09
Success based more local (micro) Success based more local (micro) rather than national (macro) rather than national (macro) environment environment
Difficult to find a balanced value Difficult to find a balanced value commercial investment in the US commercial investment in the US
People think buying now will be cheaper People think buying now will be cheaper than tomorrow than tomorrow
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Next 2 Years:’08-09Next 2 Years:’08-09
2007 everyone was a “genius” so 2007 everyone was a “genius” so demand for real estate was amplified demand for real estate was amplified
In 2008, investors will need to look at real estate with In 2008, investors will need to look at real estate with true due diligence evaluation true due diligence evaluation
We need to get back to “old-fashion” growth and focus We need to get back to “old-fashion” growth and focus on NOI on NOI
• CAP RATES could increase 100 BP by the CAP RATES could increase 100 BP by the end of 2008 end of 2008
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Jan. ’08 PROJECTION FOR ’08-’09Jan. ’08 PROJECTION FOR ’08-’09
• The “Idiot Tax” will vanish in 2008The “Idiot Tax” will vanish in 2008
• Liquidity is immense but not stupidLiquidity is immense but not stupid
• Foreigners have an appetite but could pull Foreigners have an appetite but could pull the plug at any time the plug at any time
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Oct. 30, 2009: 2010 CONCLUSION
• U.S. companies have run down inventory
• Re-stocking is up and so is manufacturing
• March 9, 2009: Stocks hit bottom
• June, 2009: Housing hits near bottom
• Commercial loan defaults will damage banks in ’10-’11
• Now it’s time for commercial, lagging
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Oct. 30, 2009: 2010 CONCLUSION
• The Feds are forcing everyone to swallow more risk and invest
• Money Market interest rates are worthless! “Curse on Cash”
• Be Ready to Buy in ’10-’11 or keep holding: It may be a life-time opportunity
• Rents means dividends !
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Oct. 30, 2009:TROJAN HORSE
• U.S. is leaving GAAP for IFRS in 2011 or 2014. Watch out! Be ready to “Rock and Roll”!
• FASB 13: More parts are now capitalized; no more rents as operating lease expense
• Companies may pursue purchasing
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REAL ESTATE CYCLESSECTORAL
PEAK U.S 7-10 yrs. PEAK Hyper-supply
Hyper-supply
“DENIAL PHASE”BID-ASK SPREADS
Expansion Recovery “Yield Chasers”
Commercial 4th/5th Inning
Recession Early Recovery
BOTTOM
Residential BUY LOW/SELL HIGH
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THE FEDS INFLUENCE ON COMMERCIAL
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U.S. UNEMPLOYMENT RATESeasonally Adjusted
Source: Bureau of Labor Stats, CBO
7.60
9.509.40 9.70 9.80 10.20
5.80
4.60
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
'07
Yr.
'08
Yr.
Jan.
'09
June
'09
July
'09
Aug
. 30,
200
9
Sep
t. '0
9
2010
Pro
j.
Millions
Jobs = Space Demand
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U.S. Average Percent Change in Jobs Per Decade
38%
25%
31%28%
20% 20%
0%0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
1940's 1950's 1960's 1970's 1980's 1990's 2000's
Percent Change Resource: Doug Poutasse
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Federal Total Revenues and Outlays as Percent of GDPSource: CBO
19.5%23%
18.5% 17.5% 21%
26%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
1969 1982 1999 2000 2008 2009est.
of GDP
Highest
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U.S. FEDERAL BUDGETSource: WSJ
-4
-3.5
-3
-2.5
-2
-1.5
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
F'80 F'93 F'00 F'08 F'09 F'10
In Trillions
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U.S. FEDERAL DEFICIT v. GDPSource: CBO
-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
1965 1977 1992 1998 2002 2004 2008 2009est.
2019proj.
Percent
INFLATION?
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U.S. PERSONAL SAVINGS RATESource: Federal Reserve
6.9%
0%2%4%6%8%
10%12%14%16%
Jan. '
5919
6119
69
Sept.
'75 1975
1985
1993
Jan. '
9820
0220
05
Aug.'08
Dec.'0
8
April '0
9
May
'09
Discretionary Savings
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U.S. TOTAL CONSUMER CREDITDEMAND
Source: Federal Reserve In Billions (Trillions)
2191.5
2519.52559.1
2509 2493.7 2474.7
2462.7
2000.0
2100.0
2200.0
2300.0
2400.0
2500.0
2600.0
Deleveraging
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CONCLUSION
• It’s all about jobs for commercial real estate!
• Deficit grows, income is down and people aren’t spending
• Look for inflation within 24 months. Bernanke admits interest rates might rise (week of Oct. 10, 2009)
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U.S. HOUSING AS AN INVESTMENT LEADS TO THE
COMMERCIAL DEBT CRISIS
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WHAT IS PRICE v. VALUE?
• PRICE IS WHAT YOU PAY
• VALUE IS WHAT YOU GET
Source: Ben Graham
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U.S. EXISTING ALL HOMES FOR SALE
Source: NAR; Standard & Poors Homes on
marketMonths Est. to sell
Annualized Purchases of all Homes
Median Price of SFDU
Jan. ‘05 2.15 M 3.6 7.08 M $195,400
Nov. ‘06 3.81 M 7.3 6.25 M $217,300
April’07 4.22 M 8.4 6.01 M $219,800
July ‘07 4.56 M 9.1 5.73 M $228,700
Nov. ‘07 4.27 M 10.3 5.00 M $210,200
Feb. ‘08 5.09 M $195,900
Oct. ‘08 4.23 M 10.2 5.05 M $183,000
April ‘09 10.1 4.68 M $ 166,600
June ‘09 3.8 M 9.4 4.89 M $ 181,800
July ‘09 3.3 M 8.5 5.24 M $ 181,700
Aug ‘09 3.87 M 8.2 5.1 M $ 177,300
Sept. ‘09 3.63 M 7.8 5.57 M $ 174,900
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U.S. NEW HOMES FOR SALE
Source: NAR WashPost US Commerce; HUD; MSNBC; Standard&Poors
Tot. New Homes on market
Months Est. to sell
New Home Sales
Median Price
Nov. ‘06 545,000 6.5 987,000 $251,700
April’07 547,000 7.4 907,000 $229,100
Nov. ‘07 505,000 9.3 647,000 $239,100
Feb. ‘08 471,000 9.8 590,000 $244,100
Oct. ‘08 791,000 11.4 $ 220,000
April ‘09 10+ 352,000 $ 209,700
June ‘09 8.4 426,000 $ 212,600
Aug. ‘09 262,000 7.3 429,000 $ 195,200
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U.S. HOMES UNDER CONSTRUCTION
Source: MSNBC 9/17/09; Standard & Poors, Dept. of Commerce
SFDU and Apts
SFDU construction
Applications for all residential building permits
Sept. ‘08 806,000
June ‘09 590,000 478,000 570,000
July ‘09 581,000 494,000 560,000
Aug. ‘09 587,000 482,000 580,000
Sept. ‘09 590,000 501,000 573,000
Working off inventory
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U.S. HOME LOAN DELINQUENCIESSource: MSNBC; Real Estate Forum Dec. ’07; Standard&Poors; WSJ
All Home Mortgages
ARM: Sub-Prime
Late
2nd Q ‘07 5.12%
Aug. ‘07
Sept ‘07
3rd Q ‘07 5.59 18.8%
4th Q ‘07 5.82% 20.2%
3rd Q ’08 6.41% 18.67%
April ‘09 12%
1Q ‘09 9.12% 24.95%
2Q ‘09 9.24% 25.35%
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U.S. MORTGAGE FORECLOSURES
Source: MSNBC 12/6/07; 3/19/08; Standard&Poors All Mortgages Sub-Prime
ARMs
2Q ‘07 0.65% 3.84%
3Q ‘07 0.78% 4.72%
4Q ‘07 5.29%
1Q ‘09 1.34% 4.55%
2Q’09 1.47% 4.49%
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NEXT HOUSING FORECLOSURE WAVE
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
In Thousands Resource: MSNBC
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COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE: Where We Have Been and Where We Are Headed
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SEPTEMBER 30, 2009: WSJ
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COMMERCIAL BANKS WITH RE DELINQUENCIESSource: Federal Reserve Bank
2.75%
5.47%
6.93% 7.67%
0.00%
1.00%
2.00%
3.00%
4.00%
5.00%
6.00%
7.00%
8.00%
4Q '07 4Q'08 1Q'09 2Q'09
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3000
4100
5200
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
Office Multi-Family Retail
Dec.'08 June '08 May '09 Source: CPN 9/09 In millions
COMMERCIAL RE DELINQUENCIES:May ‘09
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SECURITIZED COMMERCIAL LOAN DELINQUENCIES
Source: WSJ 3/26/09; Deutsche Bank
0.0%1.0%2.0%3.0%4.0%5.0%6.0%7.0%8.0%9.0%
Delinq. Rate
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U.S. COMMERCIAL MORTGAGE DEFAULTS
Source: Cohen Steers
2.5%4.0%
6.6%
0.50% 0.75%
2.3%
11%
0
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.1
0.12
1988 1990 1992 1998 2001 1Q'09
2010est.
Loans Defaults
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CMBS ISSUANCESOURCE: Commercial Mortgage Alert; CMSA
$16$37
$58 $49$74
$52$78
$93
$169
$206
$12.1
$230
$0.6$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
Loan Amount In Billions
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TOTAL U.S. INVESTMENT SALESSource: Deutsche Bank, Real Capital Analytics
$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
$120
$140
Sales In Billions
?
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Real Estate Value Change: 2009
NOI - 15%
Cap Rates 5.5% increased to 7% or more
Results 38% decline in commercial value is greater than building value
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U.S. AVERAGE COMMERCIAL RE MORTGAGES MATURING
$460
$480
$500
$520
$540
$560
$580
$600
Loan Amount in Billions Reference: America's RE 2009
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COMMERCIAL RE DEBT MATURITIES (INCLUDING SECURED AND UNSECURED DEBT)
Source: Chip Rodgers, RER
$0$200$400$600$800
$1,000$1,200$1,400$1,600$1,800$2,000
Loan Amount in Billions
30% won’t qualify for refi
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U.S. COMMERCIAL MORTGAGE MATURIES: Life Ins., CMBS, CDO, ABS, GSE, and Other
CreditSource: AEW, CRE Fall Convention ‘09
$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
$120
$140
$160
$180
$200
Loan Amount in Billions
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COMMERCIAL BANKS IN TROUBLE:Commercial and Multi-Family Debt
Source: CRE Fall Convention ‘09
$0$500
$1,000$1,500$2,000$2,500$3,000$3,500$4,000
Total Com./M
F Debt
2Q'08
2Q'09
Debt in Billions
45% with commercial banks
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Percent Change in Construction Starts
Source: CPN July ‘09
44
55
1511
40
14
5
52
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Office Retail Industrial Hotel
March '08 March '09
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Apartment Development Activity: 4 Sample National Companies
Source: David Gleeson, CRE
2007 2008 2009 2010
A 10,000 u 8,000 0 0
B 2,227 1,035 0 0
C 1,130 1,251 0 0
D 1,653 0 0 0
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FUTURE COMMERCIAL MORTGAGE DELINQUENCIES
Source: Deutsche Bank
• Loans are maturing from 5 years ago
• New Appraisals are 30- 40% lower
• Lack of Owner Equity Available: Partners are saying “Enough is enough” • Delinquency rate for partial IO loans are twice that of other loans
• Over $ 2 Trillion commercial mortgages will mature by 2013 and 33% will not qualify for refinancing
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FUTURE COMMERCIAL MORTGAGE DELINQUENCIES
• MF construction permits will most likely end at 2009
• Over 1,000 commercial banks fail in the next 24 months
• Would you be in a rush to buy if waiting was worth a big discount?
• Bottom feeders will wait 2 years to the bank collapse
• Look for 2010-11 for deeper commercial foreclosures
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REAL ESTATE YIELD BREAK-DOWN V. THE DOW
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OCTOBER 13, 2008
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U.S. PERSONAL SAVINGS RATESource: Federal Reserve
8%
6.9%
0%2%4%6%8%
10%12%14%16%
Jan. '
5919
6119
69
Sept.
'75 1975
1985
1993
Jan. '
9820
0220
05
Aug.'08
Dec.'0
8
April '0
9
May
'09
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MONEY MARKET CASH-ON-HANDSource: WSJ
3.37
3.43
3.53
3.90
3.39
1.90
4.40
3.48
3.09
2.81
2.43
2.27
2.16
3.77
3.66
00.5
11.5
22.5
33.5
44.5
5Trillions
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DOW HISTORY
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
May
26,
189
6
Nov
.14,
1972
Dec
. 6, 1
974
Nov
.21,
1995
Mar
ch 2
9, 1
999
May
3, 1
999
Jan.
14,
200
0
Mar
ch 7
, 200
0
Oct
. 9, 2
002
Oct
. 19,
2006
June
12,
200
7
July
1, 2
007
July
11,
200
7
July
19,
200
7
Aug
. 16,
200
7
Sept
. 24,
200
7
Oct
. 1, 2
007
Nov
. 26,
200
7
Jan.
1, 2
008
Oct
. 9, 2
008
Apr
il 1,
200
9
Sept
. 30,
200
9
Oct
. 23,
200
9
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U.S. GDP v. DOW HISTORY: In Trillions $
14,285
10,128
$1,038
10,081
8,5048,776
1,003
10,007
$0
$2,000
$4,000
$6,000
$8,000
$10,000
$12,000
$14,000
$16,000
1970 2001 2006 July, 2007 Dec. 31, 2008 July 2, 2009 Oct. 23, 2009
US GDP Dow Source: Williamson/Johnston Bureau of Econ. Analysis
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INVESTMENT RETURNS: 1998-2009Source: Morningstar, NCREIF,WSJ, YahooFinance 10 YR.
Aver.2008 1Q ’09 2Q ‘09 9/30/09
YTD
NCREIF R.E. 12.34 -6.46 -7.33% -5.2% -7.4 % 3Q
ALL RE MUTUAL FUNDS
-3.82% NA
REITS 14.89%
S&P 500 -1.4 -37 -11 3.2 17%
NYSE COMPOSITE -1.98% -40.75% 20%
DOW 1.1% -33.84% 11%
NASDAQ -2.81% -6.5% 34.6%
MONEY MARKET FUNDS
0.05%
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CONCLUSION
• Market is very liquid
• Feds will push investors to take risk
• Returns are up showing faith in the market
• But are we being fooled for another bubble?
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COMMERCIAL RE EQUITY/DEBT FINANCING/RETURNS
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U.S. 10-YR. T-NOTE: ’62-’09Source: Federal Reserve
3.212.22
3.553.59
3.654.034.31
5.19
4.804.29
6.036.57
8.55
10.6211.43
7.99
7.35
3.95
0.002.004.006.008.00
10.0012.0014.00
1962
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2006
Ju
ly,2
007
Nov
. 2, 2
007
Jan.
1, 2
008
Apr
il 2,
200
8O
ct. 8
, 200
8Ja
n. 2
, 200
9Ju
ly 2
, 200
9O
ct. 2
, 200
9
AnnualYield
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NCREIF v. OTHER REAL ESTATESource: WSJ, YahooFinance, NCREIF 2008 2Q ‘09 2Q-3Q
‘09
9/30/09
YTD
NCREIF R.E. -6.46 -5.2% -9.03% -7.4% 3Q
ING EUROPE RE FUNDS
(best single internatl. RE fund return ’08)
-43.1% 43.87%
GENERAL RE MUTUAL FUNDS
-42.19%
INDUSTRIAL & OFFICE REITS
39.2%
MONEY MARKET FUNDS
0.05%
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U.S. 10-YR T-Note Yields vs. Real Estate Yields: ’04-08’
Source: Federal Reserve
4.27 4.294.80 4.65
5.04 5.19
4.314.03
10.410.1
9.5
6.5
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2004 2005 2006 April 1, 2007 2Q '07 July 9, 2007 Nov. 2, 2007 Jan. 1, 2008
T-Notes RE Returns
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U.S. RE 4Q 2008 PRE-TAX YIELDSource: RERC
8.00%8.50%
9.00%
9.50%10.00%
10.50%
11.00%
US
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U.S. 10-YR T-Note Yields vs. Real Estate Yields: ‘09
Source: Federal Reserve
5.04 5.19
6.5
5.54.31
4.033.2
6
9.5
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
2Q '07 July 9, 2007 Nov. 2, 2007 Jan. 1, 2008 3Q'09
T-Notes RE Yields Unlev.
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U.S. CAP RATES: Going-In Cap 2Q ‘09Source: CPN April ’09/WSJ 5/6/09/RERC 2ndQ’09
8.18.48.48.17.6
0.01.02.03.04.05.06.07.08.09.0
4Q'08 1Q '09 2Q'09
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U.S. 3Q’09 INVESTMENT SALES OVER 2Q’09Source: Real Estate Analystics
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%Percent of increase jumped in 3Q
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U.S. 3Q’09 INVESTMENT SALES OVER 2Q’09Source: GlobeSt.com
$0
$2
$4
$6
$8
$10
$12
$14
In Billions
Dollar of deals is up for all sectors!
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Interest Rate Spreads:’05-’09 Com. Mortgage vs. 10 Yr. T-Note
Source: ING Clarion, ULI
5.5 5.505.9
6.8
7.58.0 8.0
4.2
5 4.8
3.8
2.9
3.553.21
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
2005 2006 2007 2008 1Q'09 2Q '09 3Q'09
Aver. Com. Mortgage Rate 10 Yr. Treasury
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Lowest Interest Rate
Range 7-8%
7.25% (amortized)
5.5 % (I.O. short-term)
Recourse LTV 50% Good supply
60-70% Minimal
1.25-1.50 DCR
Loan Amount Easy: $5-10 million
Loan Amount Difficult: Over $10 million
Investor Demand 10.25% (300 BP)
COMMERCIAL RE INTEREST RATES 3Q, 2009Source: Colliers Meredith&Grew Capital Report, Fantini&Gorga
Oct. 22, 2009: House mortgages
increase over 5%
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COMMERCIAL BANKS: PERCENT OF RISK BASED CAPITALTHE TROJAN HORSE
Source: Federal Reserve Call Reports
300%
50%
150%170%
200%
50%
105%
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
250%
300%
350%
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CONCLUSION
• Expect over 1000 banks to fail in the next 24 months
• Return rates are climbing
• Bigger spreads between “ask” and “bid” prices
• Therefore stalemate continues while the clock is ticking on loans
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THE INTERNATIONAL INFLUENCE
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EURO DOLLAR VALUE
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
US $ Val.
Weak Dollar
Better value
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1.48%
0.53%
1%
0.50%2.25%
3% 3.25%
0.00%
1.00%
2.00%
3.00%
4.00%
5.00%
6.00%
7.00%
8.00%
JapanSwiss
Euro Zone
BritainCanada
Australia
U.S.
Jan. 2, 2008 April 2, 2008 Oct. 1, 2009 Source: WSJ
COST OF BORROWING: PRIME RATE: Jan. 2, 2008-Oct. 1, 2009
With inflation, cost is zero
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Global Real Estate PurchasesLIQUIDITY AND REAL ESTATE
Source: AFIRE, BEA, RE Capital Analystics
$354 $393$495
$682 $700 $704
$220
$989
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1,000
$1,200
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
3Q'0
9
2009
Est
.
In Billions
BUY LOW
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Foreign Investments of U.S. Commercial Real Estate
Source: Chip Rodgers, RER; GlobeSt.com
$0$5
$10$15$20
$25$30
$35$40
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Est
.
In Billions
Where is the money going? China accounted for half in 3Q’09
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FOREIGN DIRECT HOLDINGS OF U.S. COMMERCIAL PROPERTIES
Source: US Dept. of Commerce
$177.4$169.7
$178 $187 $190.7 $190
$242$227.9
$0.0
$50.0
$100.0
$150.0
$200.0
$250.0
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Holdings In Billions
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1. SWITZERLAND (OVERTOOK U.S.)
2. UNITED STATES
3. SINGAPORE
4. SWEDEN
5. DENMARK
6. FINLAND
7. GERMANY
8. JAPAN
9. CANADA
10. NETHERLANDSSource: Business Week 9/21/09Com
FOREIGN RATINGS OF COMPETITIVE COUNTRIES TO INVEST: 2009
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-4-202468
101214
Jan. '0
7
Dec.'0
7
July
'08
Sept.0
8
Dec. '
08
Mar
ch '0
9
July
'09
Aug. '09
Sept.'
09
Indonesia S. Korea India
ASIAN INFLATION STRIKESSource: WSJ
Oct. 6: Australia ups interest rate
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2009-2010 CONCLUSION• Repeal or revise FIRPTA
• There is ample investor liquidity but not chasing deals
• Price has not equaled value
• Commercial real estate is headed for more distressed news! That’s Good !
• Banks are gearing up for the worst
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2009-2010 CONCLUSION
• Appraisals are low and banks haven’t yet readjusted mortgage book values
• Loan-to-Values are resetting with equity calls
• The worst is yet to come with expiring commercial mortgages in ’10-’11
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2009-2010 CONCLUSION
• Vulture Investors are betting on distressed real estate for 2010. Over $ 40 B has been raised
• REITs have raised $23.3 B in equity for purchases
• It will be more like heaven in 2011!
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2010 CONCLUSION
• Deflation or Inflation? Shilling says Chronic Deflation is here to stay due to deficient demand, not excess supply
• Real Estate is an Inflation-Hedge
• Deleveraging continues: Deferring new purchases
• Buy Apts, hold cash
• Be PATIENT to buy!!!!
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2010 CONCLUSION
• GAAP to IFRS could spur commercial purchases
• Watch out for the “Minsky Rage” !
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HAPPINESS DEFINED:
EXPECTATION = REALITY EXPECTATION = REALITY
OROR
REALITY IS GREATER THAN REALITY IS GREATER THAN EXPECTATION EXPECTATION
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THANK YOU !SIOR
ROB NAHIGIAN, FRICS, SIOR, CRE