R O B WA L R O N D , D I O C E S A N R U R A L L I F E A D V I S O R

CLIMATE CHANGE IN OUR LOCAL COMMUNITIES

25th April 2015

• 5th Mark of Mission;

• “To strive to safeguard the integrity of creation and sustain and renew the life of the Earth”

WEATHER AND CLIMATE

Climate = the average weather in

a locality over a 30 year period

Weather = what it is doing outside

right now

199120022013202420352046205720682079209021012112212321342145215621672178218922000

1

2

3

4

5

6Global Mean Temperature Rise

Tem

pera

ture

Ris

e o

C

Temp rise is difference from 1750

IPCC Emission Scenarios

High Medium Low

World Stabilisation Scenario

Peak in emissions at 2016 followed by an annual decrease of 4%

SOME CHANGE IS INEVITABLE

Year

We are locked into some change because of past emissionsWe are locked into some change because of past emissions

Start to diverge from 2030-40Start to diverge from 2030-40

2003 heatwave temperature, which killed 2,000 people across the UK, are likely to be normal by the 2040s

Mitigation

• reducing our emissions of greenhouse gases, such as carbon dioxide (CO2)

Adaptation

• preparing for the unavoidable impacts of climate change

© Environment Agency

WHAT EFFECTS ARE WE ALREADY SEEING?

7

South-West England central estimate

Medium emissions

Impacts

Heat stress to poultry and livestock

Increased risk of disease in crops

Altered growing seasons

2020 +1.60C

2050 +2.70C

2080 +3.90C

Warmer summers

Map showing change in average summer temperature in the 2080s at the 50% probability level, medium emissions

But the temperature on the hottest day of the year could increase by up to 10ºC

The 2003 heatwave, which caused an extra 30,000 heat-related deaths across Europe, was 2.3C above average

8

Impacts

Increased drought

Reduced stream flow and water

quality

Serious water stress

Decreased crop yields

Climate change could increase water demand for irrigated crops in parts of the UK by as much as 50% by 2050

South West Englandcentral estimate

Medium emissions

2020 - 8%

2050 - 20%

2080 - 24%

Drier summers (on average!)

Map showing change in average summer precipitation in the 2080s at the 50% probability level, medium emissions

Map showing change in average winter precipitation in the 2080s at the 50% probability level, medium emissions

9

Impacts

Increased winter flooding

Risks to livestock

Increased soil erosion and run-off

Waterlogged soils

South West central estimate

Medium Emissions

2020 + 7%

2050 + 17%

2080 + 23%

Wetter, milder winters

In England, 1.3 million hectares of farmland are within floodplains, including over half of the most productive land

More frequent and intense weather eventsi.e. Floods; Droughts; Storms and Heatwaves

Impacts

Crop damage or loss

Soil erosion

Drainage and building maintenance costs

Disruption to transport

Stress to livestock

Increased fire risk

Volatility and unpredictability in the weather – expect the unexpected!

© Environment Agency

© Environment Agency

© Environment Agency

FACT, FEELING AND FUTURE

REPORT COMMISS IONED BY THE B ISHOP OF TAUNTON

Fact, Feeling and Future

POTATO HARVESTING AUTUMN 2012

HOW IS AGRICULTURE CHANGING?

• Coping with smaller windows• Increasing sustainability : produce more – impact

less• Changing cropping patterns• Improving soil management and care• Water Use• Land Use – Food vs Energy

ANAEROBIC DIGESTER

SOLAR FARMS

HOW CAN WE ADAPT?

• Food Security• Reduce Food Miles• Organic • CARE! – we all have a part to play