Road safety in Australia–the data and the challenge

Kym Bills

Executive Director

Australian Transport Safety Bureau

National Road Safety Strategy 2001-2010

●Joint strategy involving all levels of government & other stakeholders endorsed by ATC in late 2000

●Series of two-year action plans, providing a focus on priority issues

●Target a 40% reduction in the number of road deaths per 100,000 population by end 2010 (5.6 max)

Basis of target

●Based on estimated effects of known measures following a 1998 summit & Corben/Vulcan paper

●Focus on measures likely to be ‘in the pipeline’ (eg road investment, some vehicle technology) plus those feasible to implement & cost-effective

●Estimates adjusted to allow for expected increase in vehicle use, and discounted to avoid double-counting of savings

●40% challenging, but not cf 50% or ‘vision zero’

2010 target: indicative estimates of the effects of known measures

Improve the safety of roads

New technology to reduce human

error

Road user behaviour

Vehicle crashworthiness

Measuring progress●Steady progress toward the target would require a 5% reduction in

the fatality rate each year ●On that basis, the cumulative reduction by the end of May 2007

should have been 27.9%

Road deaths per 100 000 populationrolling 12 monthly data

5.6

6.6

7.6

8.6

Dec-00 Dec-01 Dec-02 Dec-03 Dec-04 Dec-05 Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10

Target: 40% reduction

May 2007 target rate = 6.7 Cumulative reduction of 27.9%

5% reduction per year

Measuring progress

Road deaths per 100 000 populationrolling 12 monthly data

5.6

6.6

7.6

8.6

Dec-00 Dec-01 Dec-02 Dec-03 Dec-04 Dec-05 Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10

May 2007 rate = 7.8

Cumulative reduction of 16.5%

Target: 40% reduction

May 2007 target rate = 6.7

Cumulative reduction of 27.9%

Changes in vehicle usage

●Total vehicle usage (kilometres per person) has been growing at about 0.9 of a percentage point per year–slightly faster than expected when the target was set–but not enough to explain the gap between safety outcomes

and the pro-rata target –unlikely that the changed safety trend since 2004 is a result of

a surge in total vehicle use • in fact, fuel price rises have probably moderated aggregate

exposure growth.

Changes in vehicle usage

●Truck VKT growth in line with forecast and deaths have decreased (but not in line with pro rata 40% target)

●Unforseen increase in motorcycle usage and motorcycle deaths–motorcycle deaths have increased by 36% since 1999

(22% since 2004)– the trend in motorcycle deaths accounts for about two fifths of

the current gap between the total fatality rate & pro-rata target

Was the target unrealistic?

●Two states have achieved cumulative reductions that are very close to the national pro-rata target for May 2007:–National pro-rata target: 27.9% –NSW reduction: 27.2%–SA reduction: 27.3%

– In Victoria, which started with the lowest rate among the states, the rate has dropped by 24% since December 2000

Was the target unrealistic?

●In the 12 months to May 2007, NSW and Victoria both had road death rates slightly below the national pro-rata target–National pro-rata target: 6.7 deaths per 100,000 –NSW and Victoria: 6.6 deaths per 100,000

●Victoria recorded a 31% reduction in the fatality rate in the two years to April 2004, mainly by using a robust approach to speed management

Victoria’s campaign on speeding: results

Rolling 12 month average

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

Dec-98 Dec-00 Dec-02 Dec-04 Dec-06 Dec-08

Dea

th ra

te p

er 1

00 0

00 p

opul

atio

n

Victoria

Australia (excluding Victoria)

Victorian road deaths fell by 31% in the two years

to April 2004

Why are we above the national target?

●National Road Safety Action Plan for 2007 & 2008 many cost-effective measures:

–have not been implementedor–have not been implemented in all jurisdictionsor–have not been implemented on a sufficient scale

●The target was an estimate of what could be achieved not a forecast of what would be

Is the national target still within range?

Road deaths per 100 000 populationrolling 12 monthly data

5.6

6.6

7.6

8.6

Dec-00 Dec-01 Dec-02 Dec-03 Dec-04 Dec-05 Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10

May 2007 rate = 7.8

Cumulative reduction of 16.5% in 6 years 5 months

May 2007 target rate = 6.7

Cumulative reduction of 27.9%

Reduction now required to meet target: 28% in 3 years 7 months

●Average annual percentage reduction to meet targetover 10 years: 5.0%

●Average annual percentage reduction to May 2007:2.8%

●Average annual percentage reduction required from now to 2010:8.8%

● Total percentage reduction required from now to 2010: 28%

Is the national target still in range?

“If I wanted to get to there, I wouldn’t start from here.”

The challenge

●On average, 31 people die on Australia’s roads every week

●More than 10 times as many people are seriously injured

●These numbers could be much lower

●Many available options for improving safety would result in a net economic benefit

●We would probably have a more efficient and reliable road transport system with reduced greenhouse emissions and noxious emissions

●We have the outcomes that we have because, as a society, we have made certain choices.