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Κώστας Λαπαβίτσας SOAS/RMFDaniel Munevar CADTM/RMFTRANSCRIPT
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RMF Occasional Policy Paper 10, 2014
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Occasional Policy
Paper 10
2014
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RMF Occasional Policy Paper 10, 2014
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1.
, , . 124% 2020, 3%. - , 4,5% 2016. 2010 . 174%, 130% 2009, .
, , . - , - , . , - , . - , -.
- . 27% . , , - , . - .
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"" ("-"), .
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RMF Occasional Policy Paper 10, 2014
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, . , .
- , - . -, . - . , - , -, - , .
, , "" - 0,5% 1% , 60% . 2014 2019.
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1. "" , - 5% 2019. - 2012 3%.
2. "" 0,5% 0,8% 2014 2019. 1%, 1,6% -. , .
3. , .
4. , 4,8% , 2015-2019. 10 , , . ' , ,
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RMF Occasional Policy Paper 10, 2014
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. - 2015-2019, , .
5. , . , - ( , 3% ) - .
, ' , . . - , . - .
- , . , . 2040. -, . .
2.T
2009, , 300 , 130% . 2011, 355 , 170% , 304 , 157% , 2012. , 2013 2014 320 , 174% .
2012 PSI (Private Sector Involvement, ) . 200 - ("") 50% . ,
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RMF Occasional Policy Paper 10, 2014
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, . - - . , 2013, - ( , ) " -". 2013, .
PSI, :
1. 2010, - . 2013 - , 2010 2011.
2. -, 4% 2009 2% 2012, - 2013 3%.1
3. , 8 2009 16 2013.2
4. , . 2016-2036 , 5 10 .3
- , , 2010 , .
,
1 , http://www.pdma.gr/index.php/en/public-debt-strategy/public-debt/historical-characteristics/weighted-average-cost-maturity-of-annual-funding 2 , http://www.pdma.gr/index.php/en/public-debt-strategy/public-debt/historical-characteristics/weighted-average-maturity 3 , http://www.pdma.gr/index.php/en/public-debt-strategy/public-debt/maturity-profile-en
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RMF Occasional Policy Paper 10, 2014
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174% . 25% 2008 22% . 2014 - . - 27%, , , 2013, 35% 2007 70% .4 - , .
, - , , . , - . , - - 124% 2020. , 1,5% 2014, 4,5% 2016, . .
2013, , -. - , . 1,5 2013 Eurostat. ( ) . , 2014, 500 !
2014, PSI. , - 3 , 4,75%, .
4 , http://www.statistics.gr/portal/page/portal/ESYE
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RMF Occasional Policy Paper 10, 2014
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RMF Occasional Policy Paper 10, 2014
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. - . . , , . - - , "" . "" , - .
3. M
' (Debt Sustainability Analysis, DSA) .5 . - :
t+1 - t = (i t+1 - t+1 g t+1) t - t+1 tb t+1
:
i
g
,
tb , ( , .)
, tb t+1 = 0 (i t+1 - t+1 g t+1) 0, . - - -, , , .
5 . Escolano, J. (2010) A Practical Guide to Public Debt Dynamics, Fiscal Sustainability, and Cyclical Adjustment of Budgetary Aggregates, IMF Technical Note and Manual No. 2010/02 (Washington: International Monetary Fund).
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RMF Occasional Policy Paper 10, 2014
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, - .6 - , (Core Price Index, CPI), , - , 20142019.7 , - , - , (implicit interest rate), , .8
, - . , - . , 2012 1,9% .9 , - , - , .10 , . , - .11
, RMF. 1 RMF . - 2014 . , 138% 2019. RMF 147% . RMF .
6 . World Economic Outlook Database (April 2014), http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2014/01/weodata/index.aspx 7 , , . 8 . 9 . Zettelmeyer, J., Trebesch, C., Gulati, M., (2012) The Greek Debt Exchange: An Autopsy, http://av.r.ftdata.co.uk/files/2012/09/The-Greek-Debt-Exchange-An-Autopsy.pdf 10 . 24 2014 2020. . Greece to meet 2013 asset sales target, upbeat on 2014 plan: privatization chief, available at: http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/12/16/us-greece-privatisation-idUSBRE9BF0Y920131216 11 . Manesse, P., (2014) Privatizations and Debt: Lessons From The Greek Fiasco available at: http://www.economonitor.com/blog/2014/01/privatizations-and-debt-lessons-from-the-greek-fiasco/?utm_source=feedly#sthash.rKIXSznn.dpuf
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RMF Occasional Policy Paper 10, 2014
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-, . - .
1 - % , ,
: IMF (2014) World Economic Outlook .
, "" "" - . "" , .
4. "" :
- - - -. , - 2014, - 50 .12
12 . EU Said to Weigh Extending Greek Loans to 50 Years, http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-02-05/eu-said-to-weigh-extending-greek-loans-to-50-years.html
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RMF Occasional Policy Paper 10, 2014
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. , . , - .13 , , - .
2 - % , ,
: IMF (2014) World Economic Outlook .
2 "" . 50 2014 2019, 50 , . , , : 2019 142%. 5% RMF. To
13 (IMF Government Finance Statistics Manual, 2001) . . , , . , , .
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RMF Occasional Policy Paper 10, 2014
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- 2012 . 2014-2019 3,2%. - .
"" 3, - . - RMF . , - , . 3 50 100 . 0,8% , 1,6% .
3 "" - %
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5. "" :
. 60% ,
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RMF Occasional Policy Paper 10, 2014
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. -, 200 , -, . - , .
4 - % , ,
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4 - RMF . , - - : 3% , 60% ( 5). -
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RMF Occasional Policy Paper 10, 2014
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0,7% 2015-201914 - .15
5 %
: IMF (2014) World Economic Outlook .
6, "-" , . RMF, "" - , , 4,8% 2015 2019.
14 . , , . , . ' . , , "" 0,7% . 15 . . , , - . . . Stiglitz, J. (2010) Sovereign Debt: Notes on Theoretical Frameworks and Policy Analyses, B. Herman, J.A. Ocampo, and S. Spiegel (.), Overcoming Developing Country Debt Crises, , Oxford University Press.
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RMF Occasional Policy Paper 10, 2014
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9,9 , , , . - - 50 , . ( ) 100 .
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16 , - - RMF. - - 60%.
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RMF Occasional Policy Paper 10, 2014
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, "" ( ) . RMF - , 26 60%! , , . . - , , . - .