risks, vulnerabilities and resilience iflihin a context of ... · risk, vulnerability, resilience...
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FAO/OECD Workshop : Building Resilience for Adaptation to Climate Change in the Agriculture sectorp g gRome, 23-24 April 2012
Risks, vulnerabilities and resilience i f li hin a context of climate change
Vincent Gitz FAOVincent Gitz, FAOAlexandre Meybeck, FAO
www.oecd.org/agriculture
Outline
• SystemsRisks in a conte t of climate change• Risks in a context of climate change
• Vulnerabilities• Resilience
L f t t i t b ild • Lessons for strategies to build resilience for adaptation to climate change
www.oecd.org/agriculture
Risk, vulnerability, resilience
• “Risk” designs here the potential of shocks and stresses to affect, in different ways, the state of systems, communities, households or individuals. Probability, severity, economic scale, time scales and direct and indirect y, y, ,costs should be taken into account.
• “Vulnerability” is the propensity or predisposition to be adversely affectedVulnerability is the propensity or predisposition to be adversely affected (IPCC SREX 2011).
• “Resilience” is the ability of a system and its component parts to anticipate• “Resilience” is the ability of a system and its component parts to anticipate, absorb, accommodate or recover from the effects of a hazardous event (IPCC SREX 2011)
• “Adaptive capacity” is the capacity of a system to adapt in order to be less• Adaptive capacity is the capacity of a system to adapt in order to be less vulnerable. In fact it has two dimensions: adaptive capacity to shocks (coping ability) and adaptive capacity to change.
www.oecd.org/agriculture
Systems
• Systems can be delineated according to various perspectives, including expected functions:environmental, economic or social, political and institutional.
• These perspectives are linked < sustainability.
S i diff i h • Systems in different perspectives share components.
S t b b dd d i t th • Systems can be embedded into one another, meaning that one system can be a component of a major system
www.oecd.org/agriculture
a major system.
Systems in scales and ddomains
Household and farm systems li k
• Fig1
linkages
Fig1
Systemsat at different
lscales
Types of risksypTypes of risk Potentially influenced
by climatic factors Potential economic consequences on f
Potential long termconsequences
farmers Input price increase Yes (feed) Yes, reduced income
for farmers When it affects investment (seeds, breeding stock)breeding stock)
Output price decrease
Yes Yes, reduced income for farmers
Reduce incentive for investment
Weather shocks Yes Yes Depending on type of shocks and productions
Plant pests Yes Yes, reduced yield Yes. Pest could last. Animal diseases Yes Yes reduced Yes Disease couldAnimal diseases Yes Yes, reduced
production. Loss of livestock. Potential trade barriers
Yes. Disease couldlast. Loss of productive capital. Potential tradebarriers.
Risks and Systems:Systems:
I t Impacts of a d ht drought onlivestock grazing systems
Impacts of a drought a drought
(long term)
CC: Effects on a systemy
Impacts on ecosystems
Vulnerabilities and vulnerabilityVulnerabilities and vulnerability
Vulnerability of “what” to “what”:Vulnerability of what to what :
SYSTEM orCOMPONENT(s)
which “bear” the vulnerability
DOMAIN(s)
Variable/quality/dimRISK or SET of RISKSVariable/quality/dim
ension(s) which characterize the entry of the system
SET of RISKS
in an affected state
Vulnerability at scalesVulnerability at scales
V (Territory)V (Territory)
Landscape
Farm
V (Landscape)
V (Farm)V(Farm)Farm Animal disease
Ri kV(Farm)Farm Risk
Vulnerability at scalesd ffCompounding effects
From one level to another, vulnerabilities can either : Add themselves (+) Compensate each other ( - ÷ √ ) Compensate each other ( ÷ √ ) Amplify each other ( × )
Vulnerability at scalesVulnerability at scales
V (Territory)V (Territory)
Landscape
Farm
V (Landscape)
V (Farm)V(Farm)Farm
Animal disease RiskV(Farm)Farm Risk
Vulnerability at scalesVulnerability at scales
V (Territory)V (Territory)
Landscape
Farm
V (Landscape)
V (Farm)V(Farm)Farm
Animal diseaseRisk
V(Farm)Farm
Resilience
Resilience: seed systems increase adaptive capacity
Building resilience: through timeBuilding resilience: through time
• Build adaptive capacity not only to existing risks but also to changes, in an evolving context.
• Build adaptive capacity at the same time as shocks occur: – ex-ante– during the shock– ex-post strategies to build resilienceg
Resilience
Uncertainty
Building adaptive capacity to h dd t i tchanges: address uncertainty
DiversificationDiversification
Animal genetics
Genetic resources
Comprehensive strategies to build resilience to build resilience
in a context of climate change
• Reduce, or take account of amplification effects between risks
• Organize compensation Identify/understand all the risks,
vulnerabilities, systems, dimensions, tools and their targets, and how CC act on them is necessary prior to integration in a them, is necessary prior to integration in a comprehensive approach towards resilienceresilience.
