RISKS AND OPPORTUNITIES IN BANGLADESH

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CENTRE FOR POLICY DIALOGUE (CPD) B A N G L A D E S H. a c i v i l s o c i e t y t h i n k t a n k. Bangladesh Frontier Forum. RISKS AND OPPORTUNITIES IN BANGLADESH . Debapriya Bhattacharya . - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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<ul><li><p>RISKS AND OPPORTUNITIES IN BANGLADESH Debapriya Bhattacharya</p><p>Bangladesh Frontier ForumTelenor HQ, Fornebu, Norway 17 April 2012</p></li><li><p>Bangladesh: Development was possible! Bangladesh began her journey in 1971 being the test case of development as portrayed by Faaland and Parkinson (1976)A number of pessimisms worked against any optimistic review Large population and high population growthHigh level of povertyHit by a devastating warNo strategic importance</p><p>Bhattacharya: Risks and Opportunities in Bangladesh*Faaland and Parkinson (1976) concluded - If development could be made successful in Bangladesh, there can be little doubt that it could be made to succeed anywhere else. It is in this sense that Bangladesh is the test case for development. </p><p>For more than four decades, Bangladesh belied the pessimistic prophecies of economists and displayed extraordinary resilience in the face of natural catastrophes and man-made calamities. (Akbar Ali Khan 2011)</p><p>Bhattacharya: Risks and Opportunities in Bangladesh</p></li><li><p>Economy is Growing with the rest of the WorldBDs share in World GDP and World GNI has started to rise in recent years.Bangladesh remained steady as the 47th largest economy among 124 countries reported.According to Goldman Sachs report (in 2005), by 2025, Bangladesh may emerge as the 22nd largest economy in the world and will be an important member of N-11.Source: Calculated from WDI Database*Bhattacharya: Risks and Opportunities in Bangladesh</p><p>Bhattacharya: Risks and Opportunities in Bangladesh</p></li><li><p>During 1980s Bangladeshs average GDP growth was a little higher than the world and middle income countries.During the last two decades, it surpassed the global average and remained close to average of middle income countries.Source: Calculated from WDI DatabaseGDP Growth Remained Close to Middle Income Countries*Bhattacharya: Risks and Opportunities in Bangladesh</p><p>Bhattacharya: Risks and Opportunities in Bangladesh</p><p>Chart1</p><p>43.73.23.3</p><p>23.73.23.3</p><p>43.73.23.3</p><p>53.73.23.3</p><p>33.73.23.3</p><p>43.73.23.3</p><p>43.73.23.3</p><p>23.73.23.3</p><p>33.73.23.3</p><p>63.73.23.3</p><p>34.83.82.8</p><p>54.83.82.8</p><p>54.83.82.8</p><p>44.83.82.8</p><p>54.83.82.8</p><p>54.83.82.8</p><p>54.83.82.8</p><p>54.83.82.8</p><p>54.83.82.8</p><p>64.83.82.8</p><p>55.76.22.6</p><p>45.76.22.6</p><p>55.76.22.6</p><p>65.76.22.6</p><p>65.76.22.6</p><p>75.76.22.6</p><p>65.76.22.6</p><p>65.76.22.6</p><p>65.76.22.6</p><p>65.76.22.6</p><p>Bangladesh</p><p>Decade average (Bangladesh)</p><p>Decade average Middle Income)</p><p>Decade average (World)</p><p>GDP Growth (%)</p><p>trade in servises</p><p>Time NameTrade in services (% of GDP)Decade Average</p><p>198133.4</p><p>198243.4</p><p>198343.4</p><p>198433.4</p><p>198533.4</p><p>198633.4</p><p>198733.4</p><p>198833.4</p><p>198943.4</p><p>199043.4</p><p>199144.6</p><p>199244.6</p><p>199344.6</p><p>199454.6</p><p>199564.6</p><p>199644.6</p><p>199754.6</p><p>199844.6</p><p>199954.6</p><p>200054.6</p><p>200155.9</p><p>200255.9</p><p>200355.9</p><p>200455.9</p><p>200565.9</p><p>200665.9</p><p>200775.9</p><p>200875.9</p><p>200965.9</p><p>201075.9</p><p>trade in servises</p><p>Trade in services (% of GDP)</p><p>Decade Average</p><p>Trade in servises (%of GDP)</p><p>trade open</p><p>Time NameTrade (% of GDP)</p><p>198023</p><p>198120</p><p>198221</p><p>198321</p><p>198416</p><p>198519</p><p>198618</p><p>198717</p><p>198818</p><p>198919</p><p>199020</p><p>199119</p><p>199220</p><p>199323</p><p>199423</p><p>199528</p><p>199630</p><p>199730</p><p>199832</p><p>199932</p><p>200033</p><p>200137</p><p>200233</p><p>200334</p><p>200436</p><p>200540</p><p>200644</p><p>200746</p><p>200849</p><p>200946</p><p>201043</p><p>trade open</p><p>Trade (% of GDP)</p><p>Trade (%of GDP)</p><p>Aid</p><p>Time NameNet ODA received (% of GNI)</p><p>19815</p><p>19827</p><p>19836</p><p>19846</p><p>19855</p><p>19867</p><p>19877</p><p>19886</p><p>19897</p><p>19907</p><p>19916</p><p>19926</p><p>19934</p><p>19945</p><p>19953</p><p>19963</p><p>19972</p><p>19983</p><p>19993</p><p>20002</p><p>20012</p><p>20022</p><p>20033</p><p>20042</p><p>20052</p><p>20062</p><p>20072</p><p>20082</p><p>20091</p><p>Aid</p><p>Aid (% of GNI)</p><p>LF</p><p>Time NamePopulation ages 15-64 (% of total)Population, total</p><p>19805180,624,42341118455.7341</p><p>19815282,883,61643099480.3243</p><p>19825285,156,39644281325.9244</p><p>19835287,459,80245479097.0445</p><p>19845289,828,43446710785.6847</p><p>19855292,283,59847987470.9648</p><p>19865394,825,49950257514.4750</p><p>19875397,429,29051637523.752</p><p>198853100,062,32253033030.6653</p><p>198953102,681,62754421262.3154</p><p>199054105,256,02656838254.0457</p><p>199154107,768,74958195124.4658</p><p>199255110,225,55560624055.2561</p><p>199355112,645,4606195500362</p><p>199455115,059,01563282458.2563</p><p>199556117,486,95265792693.1266</p><p>199656119,928,68267160061.9267</p><p>199757122,370,40369751129.7170</p><p>199858124,803,35172385943.5872</p><p>199958127,214,84173784607.7874</p><p>200059129,592,27576459442.2576</p><p>200159131,944,58477847304.5678</p><p>200260134,266,42880559856.881</p><p>200360136,514,76881908860.882</p><p>200461138,633,40184566374.6185</p><p>200561140,587,92285758632.4286</p><p>200662142,353,50188259170.6288</p><p>200762143,956,80589253219.189</p><p>200863145,478,3009165132992</p><p>200964147,030,14594099292.894</p><p>201064148,692,13195162963.8495</p><p>LF</p><p>Potential Labour ForcePopulation between age 15-64 yrs (in million)</p><p>poverty</p><p>1990</p><p>BD75.9</p><p>Worlds1298.1</p><p>2000</p><p>BD</p><p>Worlds</p><p>2010</p><p>BD</p><p>Worlds</p><p>PPP</p><p>BDMid</p><p>GDP per capita, PPP (constant 2005 international $)GDP per capita, PPP (constant 2005 international $)</p><p>19806772,657</p><p>19816832,671</p><p>19826812,684</p><p>19836902,697</p><p>19847062,775</p><p>19857102,842</p><p>19867202,895</p><p>19877272,968</p><p>19887233,035</p><p>19897233,073</p><p>19907473,069</p><p>19917543,069</p><p>19927743,048</p><p>19937933,074</p><p>19948083,107</p><p>19958303,183</p><p>19968513,295</p><p>19978783,408</p><p>19989063,435</p><p>19999323,513</p><p>20009703,664</p><p>20011,0033,753</p><p>20021,0293,872</p><p>20031,0654,056</p><p>20041,1154,319</p><p>20051,1654,585</p><p>20061,2264,911</p><p>20071,2915,291</p><p>20081,3565,542</p><p>20091,4195,634</p><p>20101,4885,992</p><p>PPP</p><p>GDP per capita, PPP (constant 2005 international )</p><p>gdp sector</p><p>GDP per capita, PPP (constant 2005 international US$)</p><p>gdp%</p><p>AgricultureIndustryServicesAgricultureIndustryServices</p><p>1980203941322148</p><p>1981203841322147</p><p>1982203842312148</p><p>1983203842312247</p><p>1984203842322147</p><p>1985193743332146</p><p>1986193744322247</p><p>1987193844322147</p><p>1988183745312148</p><p>1989183845302149</p><p>1990183746302148</p><p>1991173647302248</p><p>1992153648292248</p><p>1993153748262450</p><p>1994153749262450</p><p>1995143551262549</p><p>1996143551262549</p><p>1997133551262549</p><p>1998133552252649</p><p>1999123553262549</p><p>2000113653262549</p><p>2001113554242650</p><p>2002113554232651</p><p>2003113653222652</p><p>2004113752212752</p><p>2005103752202753</p><p>2006103852202852</p><p>2007103753192852</p><p>200893754192952</p><p>2009103556192953</p><p>2010103555192853</p><p>gdp%</p><p>Agriculture</p><p>Industry</p><p>Services</p><p>Share (%)</p><p>Agriculture</p><p>Industry</p><p>Services</p><p>Share (%)</p><p>BDmidworld</p><p>BangladeshDecade average (Bangladesh)Decade average Middle Income)Decade average (World)</p><p>198143.73.23.3</p><p>198223.73.23.3</p><p>198343.73.23.3</p><p>198453.73.23.3</p><p>198533.73.23.3</p><p>198643.73.23.3</p><p>198743.73.23.3</p><p>198823.73.23.3</p><p>198933.73.23.3</p><p>199063.73.23.3</p><p>199134.83.82.8</p><p>199254.83.82.8</p><p>199354.83.82.8</p><p>199444.83.82.8</p><p>199554.83.82.8</p><p>199654.83.82.8</p><p>199754.83.82.8</p><p>199854.83.82.8</p><p>199954.83.82.8</p><p>200064.83.82.8</p><p>200155.76.22.6</p><p>200245.76.22.6</p><p>200355.76.22.6</p><p>200465.76.22.6</p><p>200565.76.22.6</p><p>200675.76.22.6</p><p>200765.76.22.6</p><p>200865.76.22.6</p><p>200965.76.22.6</p><p>201065.76.22.6</p><p>Bangladesh</p><p>Decade average (Bangladesh)</p><p>Decade average Middle Income)</p><p>Decade average (World)</p><p>GDP Growth (%)</p></li><li><p>Share of modern sector is also increasing.However, compared to the middle income countries, Agriculture remains important source of GDP.Source: Calculated from WDI DatabaseGDP Composition: Increasing Role of Modern Sectors*BangladeshMiddle Income CountriesBhattacharya: Risks and Opportunities in Bangladesh</p><p>Bhattacharya: Risks and Opportunities in Bangladesh</p></li><li><p>Per Capita Purchasing Power Doubled in Three DecadesBangladeshs per capita purchasing power doubled between 1980 and 2010 (from $677 to $1,488)Per capita purchasing power of middle income countries also doubled (from $2675 to $5992) the gap did not change.Source: Calculated from WDI Database*BangladeshMiddle Income CountriesBhattacharya: Risks and Opportunities in Bangladesh</p><p>Bhattacharya: Risks and Opportunities in Bangladesh</p></li><li><p>Large Share of Global PoorBangladesh &amp; World Poverty 1990 (million)Bangladesh &amp; World Poverty 2005 (million)In 1990, Bangladesh had 4.3% of the worlds poor population, however, in 2005 this share increased to 5.5% (effect of China)Despite this, Bangladesh poverty rate has declined from 66.8% in 1990 to 49.6% in 2005Bangladesh has the 5th largest poor population in the world (in 2005 after India, China, Nigeria and Pakistan).Poverty headcount ratio at $1.25 a day (PPP) (% of population) has been used as the indicator of poverty*Bhattacharya: Risks and Opportunities in BangladeshSource: Calculated from WDI Database</p><p>Bhattacharya: Risks and Opportunities in Bangladesh</p></li><li><p>Poverty Reduction AcceleratedPoverty declined to 31.5% in 2010 from 40.0% in 2005Gini coefficient for income and expenditure declined from 0.47 in 2005 to 0.46 in 2010 However, consumption gini coefficient declined from 0.33 in 2005 to 0.32 in 2010 Poorest divisions (western parts) performed astonishingly better than the capital and other moderately poor districts</p><p>Division-wise Poverty Rate</p><p>Bhattacharya: Risks and Opportunities in Bangladesh*Source: HIES 2010</p><p>Bhattacharya: Risks and Opportunities in Bangladesh</p></li><li><p>Bangladesh had the 8th largest population in the world in 2010 among 210 reported countries (8th in 1980) though population growth rate decreased (from 2.9% in 1981 to 1.2% in 2010)Bangladeshs share in global labour force is now almost equal to her share in population.The size of the potential labour force is increasing gradually which is projected to increase in the next two decades as well. Growth rate of labour force has been higher than the population.Source: Calculated from WDI Database*Growing Potential Labour ForcePotential Labour Force (Bangladesh)Bangladeshs Share in Global population and Labour ForceBhattacharya: Risks and Opportunities in Bangladesh</p><p>Bhattacharya: Risks and Opportunities in Bangladesh</p></li><li><p>Bangladesh is increasingly becoming a trade-led from an aid dependent country.Source: Calculated from WDI Database*From an Aid Dependent to a Trade-led CountryBangladeshs Aid receipt as % of GNI Bangladeshs Trade OpennessBhattacharya: Risks and Opportunities in Bangladesh</p><p>Bhattacharya: Risks and Opportunities in Bangladesh</p></li><li><p>Leading Manufacturing Exporter among LDCsManufacturing products (e.g. RMG) has become dominant exportable products.*Source: Calculated from WDI DatabaseBangladeshs Manufactures exports (% of merchandise exports)Bhattacharya: Risks and Opportunities in BangladeshBangladeshs share in global export is still very low but gradually increasing.As a exporting country, Bangladesh ranked 66th in 2010 among 108 reported countries (74th in 1980).</p><p>Bhattacharya: Risks and Opportunities in Bangladesh</p></li><li><p>Between 1980 and 2010, remittances inflow increases 32 times.Share of remittances inflow also increases from 0.9% to 2.1%Source: Calculated from WDI Database*Major Destination of Global RemittancesBangladeshs Share in Global Workers' remittances$10.9 billion in 2010Bhattacharya: Risks and Opportunities in BangladeshAs a remittance receiving country, Bangladesh ranked 7th in 2010 among 163 reported countries (25th in 1980).</p><p>Bhattacharya: Risks and Opportunities in Bangladesh</p></li><li><p>Bangladesh has achieved higher growth in foodgrain production compared to her population growth.Foodgrain production has doubled in last two decades.Per capita foodgrain availability is also increasing in Bangladesh, from 453 gm in FY92 to 605 gm in FY10</p><p>Source: Calculated from BBS and Bangladesh Bank data*Moving towards Self-sufficient in Foodgrains ProductionBangladeshs Population and Foodgrain ProductionPer Capita Food AvailabilityBhattacharya: Risks and Opportunities in Bangladesh</p><p>Bhattacharya: Risks and Opportunities in Bangladesh</p></li><li><p>Successful to Navigate through GFCBangladesh was the only country in the BRICs and N-11 where macro stability components improved. GDP growth only suffered a relatively mild slowdownBangladeshs macroeconomic performance has been stable despite the global financial crisis;Remittance flow has remained largely buoyantExport growth has been resilient at double digitAlthough revenue mobilization has been partially affected but due to strong domestic collection it has been largely offsetBangladesh has come under purview of two sovereign credit rating agencies. Bangladesh was awarded 'BB-' for long term and 'B' for short term by Standard and Poor's and Ba3 by Moody's. *Bhattacharya: Risks and Opportunities in Bangladesh</p><p>Bhattacharya: Risks and Opportunities in Bangladesh</p></li><li><p>Bangladesh in Economic and Political AlliancesBangladesh is well situated in every sense to take advantage of her strategic location flanked by the two fastest growing economies in the world (China and India).Bangladesh integrate its economy into the global value chain, and become a trade and transportation hub in South and South-East Asia.*Bhattacharya: Risks and Opportunities in Bangladesh"In many ways, there lies an important asset for Bangladesh. I believe that Bangladesh has the potential to become Singapore in South Asia. Pascal (2011)</p><p>Bhattacharya: Risks and Opportunities in Bangladesh</p></li><li><p>Satisfactory Progress towards Attaining MDGsBangladeshs progress towards achieving MDGs looks promising in most areas: Goal 1: Eradicate Extreme Poverty and Hungergoal will partially be metProportion of population below poverty linePoverty gap ratioGoal 2: Achieve Universal Primary Educationgoal will partially be metNet enrolment ratio in primary educationGoal 3: Promote gender equality and empower womengoal will probably be metRatios of girls to boys in primary educationRatios of girls to boys in secondary education*Bhattacharya: Risks and Opportunities in Bangladesh</p><p>Bhattacharya: Risks and Opportunities in Bangladesh</p></li><li><p>Satisfactory Progress towards Attaining MDGsBangladeshs progress towards achieving MDGs looks promising in most areas: Goal 4: Reduce Child Mortalitygoal will be metUnder-five mortality rateInfant mortality rateProportion of 1 year-old children immunised againstGoal 5: Improve Maternal Healthgoal will be metMaternal mortality ratio (Goal 5)Contraceptive prevalence rate (Goal 5)*Bhattacharya: Risks and Opportunities in Bangladesh</p><p>Bhattacharya: Risks and Opportunities in Bangladesh</p></li><li><p>Satisfactory Progress towards Attaining MDGsBangladeshs progress towards achieving MDGs looks promising in most areas: Goal 6: Combat HIV/AIDS, Malaria and other DiseasesHIV prevalence among population aged 15- 24 yearsDeaths of Malaria per 100,000 populationProportion of children under 5 sleeping under insecticide-treated bed nets (13 high risk malaria districts)Proportion of children under 5 with fever who are treated with appropriate anti-malarial drugsPrevalence of TB per 100,000 populationDeaths of TB per 100,000 populationDetection rate of TB under DOTSCure rate of TB under DOTS*Bhattacharya: Risks and Opportunities in Bangladesh</p><p>Bhattacharya: Risks and Opportunities in Bangladesh</p></li><li><p>Leader in UN Peacekeeping MissionBangladesh is the highest troops and police contributing country in UN peace missions with engagement of 10,654 Bangladeshi peacekeepers in troubled regions across the world (10% of total).It was 1988 when Bangladesh's modest contribution began, with 31 officers as part of UNIMOG (UN Iraq-Iran Military Observer Group) in Iraq.Bhattacharya: Risks and Opportunities in Bangladesh*Till July 2011, 106 Bangladeshi soldiers have lost their lives.The first Bangladeshi women police contingent has joined the UN mission recently. Bangladeshi peacekeepers so far served in 12 out of 16 UN peacekeeping missions.</p><p>Bhattacharya: Risks and Opportunities in Bangladesh</p></li><li><p>Growing Trade Relations between Bangladesh and NorwayDuring the same period, Bangladeshs import from Norway increased by 3.8 ti...</p></li></ul>