risk management for the power generation industry en abd ... · reputation risks technology human...
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RISKS RISKS MANAGEMENT FOR MANAGEMENT FOR
THE THE POWER GENERATION POWER GENERATION
INDUSTRYINDUSTRY
Prepared & Presented by
Abdul Halim Jantan
Sterling Insurance Brokers SdnBhd
May7, 2012
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1. Setting The Stage
2. Risk Associated with PGI
1. Critical Success Factors of PGI
TALK SEQUENCETALK SEQUENCE
1. Managing and Mitigating Risks
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INDUSTRY OVERVIEWINDUSTRY OVERVIEWINDUSTRY OVERVIEWINDUSTRY OVERVIEW
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NATIONAL ENERGY POLICYNATIONAL ENERGY POLICY
� Supply : ensure adequate, secure, cost-effective energy supply, bothrenewable and non-renewable;
� Utilization : promote efficient utilization, discourage wasteful non-productive patterns of energy consumption; and
3 Objectives
productive patterns of energy consumption; and
� Environment : minimize negative environmental impacts of energy supplychain.
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� Historical Monopoly/Continuing Government Intervention
� High Capital/Investment Cost
PECULIARITIES OF ELECTRICITY INDUSTRYPECULIARITIES OF ELECTRICITY INDUSTRY
� Balancing needs of developing economies - attracting investments and
capacity building
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PRIVATIZATION PRIVATIZATION -- WHYWHY
� Relieve financial and administrative burden of government;
� Improve efficiency and productivity; and
3 Objectives
� Reduce size and presence of public sector in the economy.
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RISKS ASSOCIATED RISKS ASSOCIATED
WITH PGIWITH PGIWITH PGIWITH PGI
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FinancialRisk
Strategic
RiskProject Cost
Cost of Debt
Equity Participation
Economic Volatility
Project Performance
Customer / product /
competitor risks
Geopolitical /
Regulatory risk
PROJECT RISKSPROJECT RISKS
HazardRisk
OperationalRisk
Property
Political
Legal / Environmental
Workers’ Compensation / Safety
Liability
Reputation risks
Technology
Human Resources
Supply chain /
Business Interruption risks
Facility PerformanceDelay in Start-Up
TheProject
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� Basically a lenders risks.
� Project sponsors need to convince lenders that the project is technically
sound and commercially viable.
BROAD RISKS IN POWER PROJECTBROAD RISKS IN POWER PROJECT
Credit Risks
� Due diligence by lenders including credit analysis of the project parties
during pre-project stage will be the determinant of lenders desire to assume
credit risks i.e. to finance the project
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BROAD RISKS IN POWER PROJECTBROAD RISKS IN POWER PROJECT
� The financing structure is critical such as the establishment of retention
account to cover potential costs arising from latent technological defects.
� Ideally, untested technology should be avoided.
Technology Risks
� Ideally, untested technology should be avoided.
� In normal circumstances, the full design defect liability should be passed on
to the EPC/OEM.
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BROAD RISKS IN POWER PROJECTBROAD RISKS IN POWER PROJECT
� Inadequate laws
� Dispute resolution
� Basically most legal risks are non insurable item except for environmental
risks.
Legal Risks
risks.
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BROAD RISKS IN POWER PROJECTBROAD RISKS IN POWER PROJECT
Financial Risks
� Risks of initial costs overrun
� Foreign exchange fluctuation
� Wrong cost estimates
� Risks of operational cost overrun � Risks of operational cost overrun
� Shortages of raw material that lead to increase of raw material costs.
� Maintenance costs
� Most financial risks are not insurable except for revenue protection via the
Loss of Profits policy.
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BROAD RISKS IN POWER PROJECTBROAD RISKS IN POWER PROJECT
� Essentially these refer to risks which are outside the control of the
contracting party.
� Whilst mitigation through insurance may be available for Acts of Nature but
Force Majeure Risks
� Whilst mitigation through insurance may be available for Acts of Nature but
may not be the case of Act of Man or Act of Government.
� Most of the expected insurance coverage for the project will be able to
cover some part of (but not all) of the Force Majeure items.
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CRITICAL SUCCESS CRITICAL SUCCESS
FACTORS FACTORS FACTORS FACTORS
IN IN
POWER PROJECTPOWER PROJECT
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MAIN PARTIES TO A PROJECTMAIN PARTIES TO A PROJECT
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THE CRITICAL AGREEMENTS INVLOVED
� Power Purchase Agreement (PPA)
� Engineering, Procurement, Construction Agreement (EPCC)
� Operation & Maintenance Agreement (OMA)
� Long Term Service Agreement (LTSA)� Long Term Service Agreement (LTSA)
� Fuel Supply Agreement (FSA)
� Financing Agreement (FA)
� Land Lease Agreement (LLA)
� ETC
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CRITICAL SUCCESS FACTORSCRITICAL SUCCESS FACTORS
Capable and Reliable Partners
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CRITICAL SUCCESS FACTORSCRITICAL SUCCESS FACTORS
Water Tight / Solid Project Documents
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CRITICAL SUCCESS FACTORSCRITICAL SUCCESS FACTORS
� The main objectives are:
1. To produce a bankable document
�Good financial rating
�Good project rating
The Main Objectives
�Good project rating
2. To achieve targeted financial close
3. To achieve targeted COD
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BANKABLE DOCUMENTSBANKABLE DOCUMENTS
� Lenders are the biggest risks takers.
� By virtue of them financing the majority of the project costs.
� Lenders are especially focused upon risks management philosophy and � Lenders are especially focused upon risks management philosophy and
security instruments of the Sponsors during the Construction Phase of the
Project.
� The Lenders’ goals are to ensure that:
� The Project is completed on time and on budget
� the Project remains economically viable
� the Lenders are fully repaid
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� Construction Risks - Can the project be technically completed and pass its
performance tests on time and within budget?
� Operating Risks - Can the project, once built, meet the required business
plan within the projected operating budget?
BANKABLE DOCUMENTSBANKABLE DOCUMENTS
Principal Risks For Lenders
� Revenue/Price Risks - Is there a predictable or guaranteed revenue stream
over the term of the debt?
� Financial/Economic Risks - Will revenues from all sources be adequate to
cover both operating costs and debt service over the period of the loan ?
� Legal/Contractual Risks - Are the project contracts legal, valid and
enforceable under the laws of the jurisdiction in question?
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� Regulatory/Environment Risks - Is there an existing regulatory framework
governing the construction and operation of the project and have all permits,
approvals and concessions been properly obtained?
� Currency Risks – If the project revenue is in a different currency to the loan,
is the local currency readily convertible to hard currency for the repayment
BANKABLE DOCUMENTSBANKABLE DOCUMENTS
Principal Risks For Lenders
is the local currency readily convertible to hard currency for the repayment
of debt and what is the long term exchange rate risks of such local
currency?
� Force Majeure Risks - Who bears the risks of accidents and other
unexpected events and is there adequate insurance coverage by reputable
insurance companies?
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CRITICAL SUCCESS FACTORSCRITICAL SUCCESS FACTORS
� On time Financial Close
� On time appointment of consultants.
� Sufficient time for due diligence by due diligence working group
On Time Financial Close
� Realistic time line
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HOW TO MANAGE RISKS
RISKSRISKS
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RISKS IN PROJECT FINANCINGRISKS IN PROJECT FINANCING
� Success or failure of project depend on proper identification, analysis and
allocation of risks
� The stakes are higher in non-recourse project financing� The stakes are higher in non-recourse project financing
� Considerable amounts involved
� Post completion resource to only one income-bearing assets
� Potential volatility in political and economic environment
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RISKS ALLOCATION PROCESSRISKS ALLOCATION PROCESS
� Crucial point to note, often risks allocation is a moving target throughout theproject, from project conception, through document negotiation,disbursement, completion and then operational phase
� Simply because, in practicesome risks will not be apparent at term sheetstage. It will only arise during negotiation of project documentation or moreoften than not during projectconstruction and operationoften than not during projectconstruction and operation
� Several factors will influence the risks allocation at any stage of the project
� financial strength of the parties
� project sponsors appetite for profit – robust attitude towards forecastand projections
� lenders taking equity in the project – conflict of interest
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RISKS ALLOCATION PROCESSRISKS ALLOCATION PROCESS
� host government
� developed country with a recognized legal system or developing country
where legal concepts may not yet be clearly established
� control over the project – who has the most significant role
� experience of the contractor
� role of the off-taker
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RISKS AT VARIOUS PROJECT STAGES (INSURABLE)RISKS AT VARIOUS PROJECT STAGES (INSURABLE)
Operation & Maintenance
Shipment starts from
Manufacturers premise
Pre Construction Stage
Construction Stage
Commercial Operation
Stage (Operational)
Maintenance of
Facility
Preliminary Works
Sub Structure Works
Loading and unloading
at ports of origin
Marine Cargo
Delay in Start Up
Shipment on vessel
EAR, TPL, ALOP
WC
Inland Transit
to construction site and
offsite storage
Installations and
Erection Works
Sub Structure Works
(Civil Works)
Testing and Commissioning
Loading and unloading
at ports of Discharge
IAR, MB, LOR, PL
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HAVING SAID ALL THAT,
DON’T HESITATE TO ASK …