risk management at nasa and its applicability to … · risk management at nasa and its...

2016 IADC ART Conference & Exhibition

Risk Management at

NASA and

Its Applicability to the

Oil & Gas Industry

IADC ADVANCED RIG

TECHNOLOGY CONFERENCE

September 13, 2016

David Kaplan

NASA/Johnson Space Center

[email protected]

https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=20160010391 2018-08-25T18:26:03+00:00Z


International Space Station

Speakers Bureau 3


Speakers Bureau 4



Complex Operations Dependent on Human Involvement


Repair and Maintenance Operations in a Hostile Environment


Ongoing Resupply Operations


Isolated and Not Easily Accessible


PRA’s are used to model and quantify RARE EVENTS

– If we had 100,000 space stations operating for 40 years each with a catastrophic failure of 500 of them, then we could do standard statistics to estimate the probability of catastrophic failure of a space station

– We have only one space station, and it has had minimal experience and no catastrophic failures. Consequently, there will not often be any statistically significant data.

Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA)

PRA’s systematically connect design, logic, operations, human

interaction and external influences for all aspects of large complex

machines/processes to detect dependencies and effects that the

human mind just could not track and grasp on its own.

» Human Reliability

» Common Cause


Generic BOP Modeled

Riser Adapter

Flex Joint

Upper Annular

Riser Connector

Mandrel

Lower Annular

Shear Rams

Casing Shear Rams

Upper Pipe Rams

Middle Pipe Rams

Lower Pipe Rams

Test Rams

Wellhead Connector

Wellhead

Under a SPACE ACT

AGREEMENT between

NASA and Anadarko

Petroleum Corporation,

JSC has completed a

PRA for a generic 20,000

psi Blowout Preventer

(BOP)

Presented with the permission of

National Aeronautics and Space Administration

)()(

Yellow 3000 PSI POD

Supply (See page 4)

Blue 3000 PSI POD

Supply (See page 4)

Yellow 5000 PSI POD

Supply (See page 4)

Blue 5000 PSI

POD Supply (See

page 4)

Rigid

Conduit

Line (From

Surface?

Only 1

Line?)

Yellow Stab

Blue Stab

5000 PSI Supply

(Yellow) to LMRP 160

Gal ACC (See page 6)

5000 PSI Supply

(Blue) to LMRP 160

Gal ACC (See page

5)

Yellow

BOP

ACC

Charge

Open on

Yellow

POD

Yellow

POD

Supply

Iso Cls

on

Yellow

POD

Hot Line1 HPU

(Surface

)

Yellow

Blue

From Same

HPU

To Yellow Auto

Shear Hot Line

(Page 1)

To Blue Auto

Shear Hot Line

(Page 1)

Yellow

Hotline

Iso on

Yellow

POD

Yellow

Hotline

Iso on

Blue

POD

1

1

2

2

Blue

Hotline

Iso on

Blue

POD

Blue

Hotline

Iso on

Yellow

POD

ven

t

3

1 Yellow LH Pilot

Supply

Blue LH Pilot Supply2

3 Same (1 Single) ROV

Vent Control

1

Yellow Rigid Cond. Iso

Close on Yellow POD

Yellow RCM

Flush Open on

Yellow POD

Yellow RCM

Flush Open on

Blue POD

1

1

Yellow Rigid Cond. Iso

Close on Blue POD

1

1

1

Yellow

BOP

ACC

Charge

Open on

Blue

POD

1

1

Rigid Conduit

Crossover Open on

Yellow POD

Rigid Conduit

Crossover Open

on Blue POD

1

1

Yellow

POD

Supply

Iso Cls

on

Blue

POD

1

1

Blue POD

Supply Iso

Cls on

Yellow

POD

Blue POD

Supply Iso

Cls on

Blue POD

2

2

2

2

Blue

BOP

ACC

Charge

Open on

Yellow

POD

Blue

BOP

ACC

Charge

Open on

Blue

POD

Blue Rigid

Cond. Iso

Close on

Yellow

POD

Blue Rigid

Cond. Iso

Close on

Blue POD

2

Blue RCM

Flush Open on

Blue POD

Blue RCM

Flush Open on

Yellow POD

2

3

0358668 Sheet 4 of 18 RIGID CONDUIT MANIFOLD FUNCTIONS

5000 PSI Supply (Blue)

to LMRP 160 Gal ACC

(See page 6)

Representative Event Tree

INIT-EV2 TIME-FOR-PLANNED-DISC

Not all situations allow

enough time for a planned disconnect

PLUG-FAILS

If a planned disconnect is

possible then a plug is installed and it could fail

PLANNED_DISCONNECT_FAILS

Planned disconnect attempted and fails

EMERGENCY_DISC_FAILS

Emergency disconnect attempt fails

SHEAR-AND-SEAL_FAILS

Proper shearing and sealing

piping as needed fails to be achieved

# End State(Phase - )

1 SUCCESS

2 SUCCESS

3 CONTAINMENT_FAILS

4 SUCCESS

5 CONTAINMENT_FAILS

AS_DM_FAILS1

6 SUCCESS

AS_DM_FAILS1

7 CONTAINMENT_FAILS

SHEARSEAL_ED_FAILS

8 SUCCESS

SHEARSEAL_ED_FAILS

9 CONTAINMENT_FAILS

AS_DM_FAILS

10 SUCCESS

AS_DM_FAILS

11 CONTAINMENT_FAILS

Assumes a disconnect is needed (planned and unplanned)


Disconnect Failure: Top Contributors

0.00%

5.00%

10.00%

15.00%

20.00%

25.00%

No Time ForPlanned

Disconnect

Blind ShearRam

Drill Present Wellplug Tool Joint Contributionby all Shuttle

Valves

CasingPresent

Perc

en

t C

on

trib

utio

n o

f Ite

ms S

ho

wn

Items, Groups of Items or Conditions that Contribute

Event Tree Contribution by Cut Sets that Contain These Specific Items/Conditions



Mission Statement: The Bureau of Safety and Environmental

Enforcement (BSEE) works to promote safety, protect the

environment, and conserve resources offshore through vigorous

regulatory oversight and enforcement.

Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement

NASA – BSEE Interagency Agreement

March 17, 2016

5 Year Agreement

NASA’s probabilistic risk

assessment technique

NASA’s accredited failure

analysis laboratory at the

Johnson Space Center


“Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA)

is a comprehensive, structured, and

logical analysis method aimed at

identifying and assessing risks in

complex technological systems for the

purpose of cost-effectively improving

their safety and performance.”

--Introduction; page 1-1


Backup


Space Shuttle COLUMBIA

February 3, 2003

History of PRA: NASA

PRA’s for Human Space Flight

[led by team at JSC]

Space Shuttle


Constellation Program

ExtraVehicular Activity (EVA)

Orion Capsule

Commercial Crew


Space Shuttle Program PRA

23

1.E-05 1.E-04 1.E-03 1.E-02 1.E-01

MMOD

Orbiter Hardware / Software

SSME

Human Error

Ascent Debris

SRB

RSRM

External Tank

1:300

1:350

1:610

1:770

1:930

1:1500

1:1500

1:5000

SHUTTLE PRA ITERATION 3.2 CONTRIBUTIONS BY

ELEMENT OR MAJOR AREA

Scenarios

involving

human error

provide a

significant risk

contribution

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