risk management and - statens vegvesen risk management and technology ... studies to calculate...
TRANSCRIPT
Why Risk Management
● Significant cost
● Demanding technical solutions
● Stringent time schedule
– Prevent unforeseen events through extensive and systematic identification and analysis of risk
Risk Management and Technology Qualification
21/09/2016
Risk management frameworkRisk Management and Technology Qualification
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Risk mgmt. process
Tools and techniques
Roles and responsibility
Definitions
Regulations and guidelines
Definition of riskRisk Management and Technology Qualification
21.09.2016
Source: T. Aven (Reliability Engineering and System Safety 99 (2012) s. 33–44
Several different uses of “risk”:● Common use: Risk = Consequence & Probability
● Increased use:Risk = Consequence & Uncertainty
Uncertainty due to lack of knowledge
Example - ship collision● Life time of bridges will be
100 (200?) years● How will ships develop in
this period:– Fewer or more ships?– Smaller or larger ships?– Ice strengthened ships?– Autonomous ships?
● How to agree upon accidental loads for bridge design?
Risk Management and Technology Qualification
21/09/2016
Tools and techniques
Work in progress:● Risk acceptance criteria
Risk Management and Technology Qualification
21/09/2016
Tools and techniques
Work in progress:● Risk acceptance criteria
Risk Management and Technology Qualification
21/09/2016
Tools and techniques
Work in progress:● Risk acceptance criteria
Risk Management and Technology Qualification
21/09/2016
Tools and techniques
Work in progress:● Risk acceptance criteria
Risk Management and Technology Qualification
21/09/2016
Tools and techniques
Work in progress:● New tool to support
risk management process
● Guidelines for how to use ship collision studies to calculate accidental loads
Risk Management and Technology Qualification
21/09/2016
Risk treatment
● One of the project’s major risks concerns the (unanticipated) failure of new technologies
● Black swan type of risk – are there loads affecting our constructions that we are not aware of (at present)?
● Systematic approach needed
= Technology qualification.
Risk Management and Technology Qualification
21/09/2016
Definitions
Definition (preliminary) oftchnology qualification in NPRA:
● TQ: The process of providing evidence that the technologywill function within specifiedlimits with an acceptable level ofconfidence (DNV-RP-A203, 2011)
● «Prosess for å demonstrere at et brukonsept vil tilfredsstille nødvendige krav under gitte grensebetingelser og med en akseptabel grad av tillit».
Risk Management and Technology Qualification
21.09.2016
Search for best practice within technology qualification
Risk Management and Technology Qualification
21.09.2016
DNV-RP-A203 “Qualification of new technology”Technology
Readiness Levels (TRL)
API RP 17N “Recommended practice for subsea productin system reliability and technical risk management»
ABS: Guidance notes on review and approval of novel concepts
TRL– technology readiness level
TRL Description Comments
1 The concept’s fundamental principles described
Specific criteria for each level – work in progress!
2 Concept defined
3 Concept validated theoretically
4 Component design validated through model test(s)
5 System design validated through model test(s)
6 Technology (system) approved
7 Technology (system) ready for operation
8 Technology (system) proven in operation and accepted for use in NPRA in new projects.
Risk Management and Technology Qualification
21.09.2016