Risk AssessmentHow does the environment affect human survival?

Rank the following from most risky to least

•Building a new residence on the coast north of San Francisco

•Driving along the California Coastal Highway

•Vacationing in southern California for two weeks

•Flying to Oakland for a ballgame•Changing planes at LAX on the way to

Hawaii•Building a new nuclear power plant near

Santa Rosa

Why do people take risks? • Economic investment • “Everything we own is right here. I can’t afford to sell out

and move.”• Livelihood tied to a local resource• “We work on the river (or farm these fields, or work in a

local factory) and that’s all we know how to do. I need to support my family.”

• Social support network is tied to place.• “All my friends and family are here. Together, we can get

through this.”• Underestimation of future risk• “This is a once in a lifetime event. If it happens again, I’ll

never live to see it.”• Overestimation of risk in other places• “Everyplace is dangerous. There is risk wherever you go. I

know the dangers of this place, and I can deal with it.”

Making Decisions about Natural Hazards

People make decisions based on their perceptions (what they think is true)▫The closer those perceptions are to fact, the better the

decisions are likely to be

In general, people in the developed world tend to• Underestimate the risk of natural hazards AND• Overestimate our ability to predict, control or

manage danger▫Reliance on technology to keep us informed and

connect us to help (that may be put out of operation during a storm or earthquake). Expectation of accurate predictions of events. Expectation of others to be ready to help us .

Sizing up the threatsTo make good decisions, people •Need reliable information about the danger

and the options they have available. •Must be willing to make realistic decisions

based on the facts, not wishful thinking.

Personal Responsibility In general, people in the developed world tend to • Underestimate the importance of personal response and preparedness AND • Overestimate the ability of government and agencies to come to their aid.

• It takes time for aid workers to mobilize and respond. Each person or family should expect to be “on their own” for a while. It’s a good idea to have food, water and first aid supplies on hand. People should pay attention to weather forecasters and comply with request to evacuate before a storm hits.

What to do •When evaluating danger from a natural

hazard people need to decide:•How dangerous could this be?

▫What is the risk to our health and well-being?

▫What is the risk to our property?•How likely is it that we will be affected?•What are our options?•How long do we have to decide what we

will do?•What resources do we have to help us deal

with this threat?

Johnson Family Scenario•The Johnson family is on vacation at their

beach cottage in southern Delaware. The TV news has alerted them that a hurricane is expected to hit. Already the surf is rough and clouds are threatening rain. The family held a meeting and evaluated their situation. The chart below summarizes their meeting. Based on this information and what you have learned, what should the Johnson family do? Support your answer.

Johnson family assessment• What is the level of risk? 

▫ Category 3 hurricane- winds at 100 mph and storm surge up to 12 feet.

• How likely is this event?▫ 80% chance of some damage. 20% chance of direct hit. 

• What are our options?▫ Stay here and ride out the storm if it hits▫ Evacuate to a local shelter▫ End vacation early and go home

• How much time to decide?▫ Hurricane will hit in 18 hours.▫ Local shelters are open now.▫ Evacuation routes likely to flood in 12 hours.

• List resources on hand.▫ Flashlight-needs batteries▫ Bottled water- 12 small▫ Cereal and milk, fruit, lunchmeat and cheese, bread▫ Cookies, potato chips▫ Aspirin, band-aids, bug spray▫ 1/2 tank of gas in car

John Stossel Article•Read John Stossel’s Article

▫Why did the writer build a house in a hurricane prone area?

▫Why did the government provide insurance for the home rather than forcing homeowners to obtain private insurance?

▫What happened to the home? ▫How was the homeowner reimbursed for his

losses? ▫What is the writer’s opinion about the

government program?

Enrichment Question

•Should the government provide insurance for homes built in areas that are prone to frequent natural disasters? Why or why not?