RISING SEAS &

SOLUTIONS Paul H. Carr, Ph. D. Sigma Xi Member 1957 AF Research Laboratory, Emeritus

Miami’s King High Tide Flooding

Miami Beach is a flood zone during King High Tides.

• Miami is spending hundreds of thousand dollars to build sea walls, but the sea is seeping under its limestone foundations.

• Increasing sea levels are encroaching on fresh water supplies.

February 2007

John Holdren,One of the lead authors is now

President Obama’s Science Advisor.

RISING SEAS & SOLUTIONS

1. Sea Levels Better Measure of Global Warming than Temperature

2. Greenhouse CO2 Warming 3. SOLUTIONS: Technology & Legislation.

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The rate of sea level increase correlates with the blue line of the CO2 increase.

Sea level rise is a proxy for global temperature, since it is due to thermal expansion (50%) and the melting of ice (50%)

SEA LEVEL RISE IS A BETTER MEASURE OF GLOBAL WARMINGTHAN AIR TEMPERATURE

SEA LEVEL RISES ARE A BETTER MEASURE OF GLOBAL WARMING THAN ATMOSPHERIC TEMPERATURE.

• 50% Thermal Expansion

• Melting Greenland

• Melting Antarctica

• Mountain Glaciers

Gravity Satellite Ice Sheet Mass MeasurementsMELTING OF GREENLAND & ANTARCTICA IS RAISING SEA LEVELS FASTER

Greenland Ice Sheet Antarctic Ice Sheet Source: Velicogna, I. Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L19503, doi:10.1029/2009GL040222, 2009

Greenland’s largest glacier is now flowing faster towards the sea 4 times faster than in the 1990s..

Since Sandy, 2012, Federal Coastal Flood Insurance is up 2X - 10X

Blue: Sea level change from tide-gauge data (Church J.A. and White N.J., Geophys. Res. Lett. 2006; 33: L01602)Red: Univ. Colorado sea level analyses in satellite era (http://www.columbia.edu/~mhs119/SeaLevel/).

Sea level rise has increased to 12 in/century at present from 3 in/century 1870– 1924.

12 in./100 years.

7.5 in./100 years

3 in. /100 years

GREENLAND IS MELTING: Reflecting snow replaced by absorbing water & land. http://ngm.nationalgeographic.com/2010/06/viking-weather/essick-photography

The tragic beauty of Greenland’s melting glaciers.

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Richard Alley, a glaciologist at Penn State University and an author of the last IPCC report said, “It involves the physics of ice fracture that we really don’t understand. If the Thwaites Glacier breaks free from its rocky berth, that would liberate enough ice to raise sea level by three meters—nearly ten feet. The odds are in our favor that it won’t put three meters in the ocean in the next century,” says Alley. “But we can’t absolutely guarantee that. There’s at least some chance that something very nasty will happen.”

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Most recent prediction for 2100: 2 to 6 feet

A rising tide floats all boats.

Everyone should benefit from increasing economic prosperity.

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“Felt Surreal” says Jeff with his wife Tracy in their garden in Staines-upon-Thames.

“Drowning World”National GeographicFebruary 2015

INCREASED WEATHER EXTREMES

WET AREAS ARE GETTING WETTER

TREADING WATER, NATIONAL GEOGRAPHIC, FEB 2015

2. SCIENCE:GREENHOUSE CO2

WARMING &AEROSOL COOLING

CORRELTAION BETWEEN TEMP AND CO2 INCREASE 1880 – 1980: CO2 increased 47 ppm.

1980 – 2010: CO2 increased 52 ppm.

Aerosols

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CAUSES

Aerosol pollution from coal burning in Beijing

World Health Organization safe level: 25 mg/m3

Aerosol level in Beijing: 505 mg/m3http://scitation.aip.org/content/aip/magazine/physicstoday/news/10.1063/PT.5.4009?utm_source=Physics+Today&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=5229780_Physics+Today%3a+The+week+in+Physics+12-16+January&utm_content=$LINK_KEYWORD$&dm_i=1Y69,343BO,E1O2I6,B5VQT,1

Increasing CO2 gas density: 1. raises temperature of earth’s surface. 2. reduces temperature of the stratosphere. 26

-Outgoing spectral radiance at the top of Earth's atmosphere showing the absorption at specific frequencies and the principle absorber CO2 at 16 microns. -The red curve shows the flux from a classic "blackbody" at 294°K (≈31°C≈69.5°F).  Schmidt, G.A.,  2010 J. Geophys. Res.,115, D20106, doi:10.1029/2010JD014287.

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1750-2005: Even if the cloud albedo effect is assumed to have the maximum cooling value, there would still be a net warming of the climate due to human activities. (UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, IPCC, 2007Report)

Solar Irradiance increased by only 0.2% since 1750.

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Assessing the effects of anthropogenic aerosols on Pacific storm track using a multiscale global climate model.By Yuan Wanga, et al.

http://www.pnas.org/content/111/19/6894.abstract April 19, 2014

We demonstrate long-range transport of the Asian pollution, large resulting variations in the aerosol optical depth, cloud droplet number concentration, and cloud and ice water paths; enhanced shortwave and longwave cloud radiative forcings; and increased precipitation and poleward heat transport.

The overall increased precipitation and poleward heat transport reflect intensification of the Pacific storm track by anthropogenic aerosols.

• C02 CONCENTRATION IN THE INDUSTRIALIZED NORTHERN HEMISPHERE IS GREATER THAN THE SOUTHERN.

• TEMP. INCREASE, SINCE 1880, OF NORTHERN = 1.1 deg. C• TEMP. INCREASE OF SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE = 0.4 deg C

http://www.americanscientist.org/issues/pub/2014/2/watching-earth-change

HUMAN CO2 FOOTPRINT Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) Aboard NASA’s Aquilla Satellite.

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During the steepest warming, the CO2 released (dots) from the sea preceded the global temperature rise (green line) by several centuries. CO2 RATE OF CHANGE is 1/300 of the PRESENT RISE.CO2 greenhouse effect drove the 3.5 C increase in average global temperature. Sea levels rose ~ 100 meters (~ 328 feet). Flood stories

4 M PEOPLE 7 B

Ice Age

Nature, 484, 49-54 (05 Apr 2012)

CHANGES IN THE EARTH’S TILT & ORBIT TRIGGERD THE ICE AGE WARMING

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At present rate of 2.5 ppm rise per year, humans are increasing CO2 at a rate 300 times faster than the recovery from the ice age 18,000 -10,000 years ago.

CO2 CONCENTRATIONS, HIGHEST (33%) IN 800,000 YRS, COULD REACH ~1000 PPM BY 21OO.

Ice Age

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• Our present level of 400 ppm could reach ~ 1000 ppm by 2100.

• Arctic became ice-free 8 M years ago when CO2 = 300 to 450 ppm.• Antarctic melted ~ 40 M years ago, CO2 ~ 700 ppm -Earth was ice-free, sea levels 100s meters (~300 ft) higher.

Dinosaur Extinction 65M Yr. BP Figure from Dr. James Hansen, NASA GISS

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The EXPLODING POPULATION OF 7 B IS INFLUENCING OUR CLIMATE BY BURNING FOSSIL FUELS THAT EMIT GREENHOUSE GASES: CARBON DIOXIDE, CO2.

1. THE HUMAN INFLUENCE ON WARMING Emissions of the greenhouse gas, CO2, are increasing at a rate of 2.5 ppm per year.

2. CONTRAST THIS WITH SLOWER NATURAL PROCESSES 18K – 10K years ago, C02 increased at a rate 1/300th slower.

3. THE IMPACT OF CONTINUING CLIMATE CHANGE Melting of the Arctic is increasing our winter climate extremes.

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3. SOLUTIONS: ADAPTATON, MITIGATION,

NON-CO2 EMITTING TECHNOLOGY

ADVANCES

TREADING WATER National Geographic Feb. 2015 Frank Behrens of Dutch Docklands, sees profit not loss in climate change. In Miami, he is promoting a floating village with 20 private artificial islands, each with a sleek four bedroom villa, a sandy beach, a pool, palm trees and a dock large enough for a 80 ft yacht. The cost $12.5 million apiece. Each island island would be anchored to the bottom with a telescoping tether, similar to those that enable floating oil rigs to ride out the toughest hurricanes.

http://www.dutchdocklands.com/Development/United-States Let’s consider working with Dutch Docklands to build a floating classroom.

SOLUTIONS TO GOBAL WARMING from CO2

Electric Cars powered by

• Windmills• Solar Cells• Nuclear Fission Power Plants

Electric cars get the equivalent of 100 miles per gallon.

NASA’s Dr. James Hansen , MIT’s Prof. Kerry Emanuel, and two other top climate scientists have recently written an open letter. They stated, “Modern nuclear technology can reduce proliferation risks and solve the waste disposal problem by burning current waste and using fuel more efficiently. Innovation and economies of scale can make new power plants even cheaper than existing plants.” Engineers at MIT are designing a nuclear plant that could be moored at sea, like an oil rig.It would cost about one-third less than a conventional plant and take about half the time to build. Floating reactors wouldn’t be in anyone’s backyard.

DECREASING COSTS

The cost of Solar PV electricity has come down to 7 cents per kWhr The average cost of electricity in the US is 12 cents/ kWhr, 19 cents in NH

Topaz Turns On 9 Million Solar Panels http://spectrum.ieee.org/energy/renewables/topaz-turns-on-9-million-solar-panels

• New grid-scale solar plants now deliver at $0.072/ kWh to $0.086/kWh when subsidies are excluded.

• Efficient natural-gas-fired plants, costs

$0.061/kWh to $0.127/kWh (with the higher end including the cost of CO2 capture).

-160 kilometers NW of Los Angeles.

-550 Megawatts, Cadmium-Telluride thin- film panels made by First Solar. -Warren Buffet financing

Tesla Model S

All Electric 260 mile

range.

2012 Chevy Volt: 90 miles/gal running quietly on 40 mile battery40 miles/gal highway with gasoline generator.

2016 NISSANLEAF®As low as:$27,700*Net value after federal tax credit

106City MPGal107 mi range.

3 year old Leaf $10,000

®

Mitusbishi i

ELECTRIC CARS

ALL ELECTRIC 2017 CHEVY BOLT EV• Over 200 mile range• $30,000 with Federal Rebate.

Pope Francis’ June 2015 Encyclical “On Care for our Common Home” contributed to the progress made at the UN Council of Parties meeting in Paris in December 2015, COP 21, as the meeting was called.

For the first time more than 180 nations, large and small, submitted plans to reduce their carbon emissions.

The United States insisted that the carbon decreases in Paris be voluntary. If they had been a legally binding treaty, the Senate would have rejected it. Our challenge this year is to elect a new President who will continue a Presidential commitment of caring for our common home.

Our Environmental Protection Agency under the Clean Air Act is presently reducing the carbon dioxide emissions from power plants. However, 29 states including Florida are challenging this in court.

Supreme Court Deals Blow to Obama’s Efforts to Regulate Coal EmissionsBy ADAM LIPTAK and CORAL DAVENPORT NY Times FEB. 9, 2016 In a major setback toPresident Obama’s climate change agenda, the Supreme Court on Tuesday temporarily blocked the administration’s effort to combat global warming by regulating emissions from coal-fired power plants.

The 5-to-4 vote, with the court’s four liberal members dissenting, was unprecedented — the Supreme Court had never before granted a request to halt a regulation before review by a federal appeals court.

“We are thrilled that the Supreme Court realized the rule’s immediate impact and froze its implementation, protecting workers and saving countless dollars as our fight against its legality continues,” said Patrick Morrisey, the attorney general of West Virginia, which has led the 29-state legal challenge.

U.S. solar industry is creating new jobs at nearly 20 times the rate of the overall economy.

10/9/15

www.CitizensClimateLobby.org

- Revenue neutral carbon fee with dividend.

-Dividend would be returned to everyone.

-Stimulating economy & creating 2 million jobs.

The Coming Climate Crash:Lessons for Climate Change in the 2008 RecessionBy HENRY M. PAULSON Jr. Secretary of the Treasury under Pres. George W. Bush.Co-Author of www.RiskyBusiness.org JUNE 21, 2014http://www.nytimes.com/2014/06/22/opinion/sunday/lessons-for-climate-change-in-the-2008-recession.html

“We’re staring down a climate bubble that poses enormous risks to both our environment and economy. The warning signs are clear and growing more urgent as the risks go unchecked.

A tax on carbon emissions will unleash a wave of innovation to develop technologies, lower the costs of clean energy and create jobs as we and other nations develop new energy products and infrastructure.

Climate change is the challenge of our time. We’ve seen and felt the costs of underestimating the financial bubble. Let’s not ignore the climate bubble.”

As Rubio Waffles, Two Floridians in the House Seek Bipartisan Climate Solutions

By Andrew C. Revkin, NY Times dot-earth bolog, Feb 6, 2016 The formation of the bipartisan Climate Solutions Caucus in the U.S. House of Representatives is a big step forward in efforts to enact efficient and effective legislation that addresses climate change.

The purpose of the new caucus, which will be co-chaired by Rep. Carlos Curbelo (R-FL) and Rep. Ted Deutch (D-FL), is to “explore policy options that address the impacts, causes, and challenges of our changing climate,” according to a document filed with the Committee on House Administration.

RISING SEAS & SOLUTIONS

1. Sea Levels Better Measure of Global Warming than Temperature

2. Greenhouse CO2 Warming 3. SOLUTIONS: Technology & Legislation.

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STORMS OF MY GRANDCHILDREN:The Truth About the Coming Climate Catastrophe and Our Last Chance to Save Humanity (2010)By James Hansen

Legacy to our children and grandchildren.

My IEEE CLIMATE DISCUSSION/DEBATE, NewTV, Newton, MA Aug 2014 Moderator (left) John Horrigan introduces Paul H. Carr (center) and Ted Kochanski (right)20 min Paul H. Carr’s PowerPoint: HUMANS INFLUENCE OUR CLIMATE-20 min. Ted Kochanski’s PowerPoint: AGW QUESTIONS TO PONDERVimeo Video URL available on my web page www.MirrorOfNature.org