Environment and migration

Richard Black23 February 2015

“The temperature increases, the temperature changes of this kind, transform where people can be. In the upwards direction, you’re going to get some areas that become deserts, probably most of southern Europe. Others that are inundated: Florida, Bangladesh, and so on.

The point is that climate change will change the lives and livelihoods and where you can live all across the globe.... With the pollution we have already generated, the world now has 25 to 50 million climate refugees.”- Lord Stern (LSE, 2011)

“Pressure to migrate

will intensify”

“1bn likely to be

displaced by 2050”

“150-200 million

environmental

refugees by the

middle of the

century”

Future floods of refugees?

Estimates of

numbers are ‘at

best, guesswork’

(IPCC, 2007)

Expanding opportunities for mobility can reduce vulnerability for such populations. Changes in migration patterns can be responses to both extreme weather events and longer-term climate variability and change, and migration can also be an effective adaptation strategy.

There is low confidence in quantitative projections of changes in mobility, due to its complex, multi-causal nature.

What the report actually said:

HOW MANY ENVIRONMENTAL REFUGEES ARE THERE?

QUESTION 1:

Environmental refugees?

[P]eople who have been forced to leave their traditional habitat, temporarily or permanently, because of a marked environmental disruption (natural and/or triggered by people) that jeopardisedtheir existence and/or seriously affected the quality of their life (El-Hinnawi, 1985: 4)

Environmental migrants?

[P]ersons or groups of persons who, for compelling reasons of sudden or progressive change in the environment that adversely affects their lives or living conditions, are obliged to leave their habitual homes, or choose to do so, either temporarily permanently, and who move either within their country or abroad (IOM 2007)

WHAT IS THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE AND MIGRATION?

QUESTION 2:

• Increased temperature, reduced rainfall in drylands

• Water stress, reduced growing season, increased frequency/intensity of droughts

• Sea level rise, storm surges, increased intensity of tropical cyclones

• increased flood risk in low-lying/coastal regions

• Increased temperature in temperate regions

• longer growing season in temperate regions

• Developing countries most affected, least resilient?

Key climate challenges

Rainfall trends

Multi-model averages; A1B scenario

Stippled areas: >90% models agree on sign change

December – February June – August

0

50

100

150

200

2501

98

0

19

81

19

82

19

83

19

84

19

85

19

86

19

87

19

88

19

89

19

90

19

91

19

92

19

93

19

94

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

Drought

Flood

Storm

Are extreme environmental events getting more frequent? Or more intense?

Source: compiled from EM-DAT

0

5,000,000

10,000,000

15,000,000

20,000,000

25,000,000

30,000,000

35,000,000

40,000,000

45,000,000

2008 2009 2010

Displaced in climate events

Displaced in climate events involving >1m

Displaced in climate events involving >100k

Displaced in top ten climate events each year

Largest displacement

Are more people being displaced?

Source: compiled from IDMC data

The Pakistan floods (2010)

KPK: Displacement pre-dated the floods, linked to counter-insurgency

Sindh: Displacement was short-term, to government buildings

Source: Adapted from Foresight (2011)

Net migration to coastal areas, 1970-2010

Source: CIESIN (2011) for Foresight

Source: Black et al. (2011) Nature

Some summary points

• Climate change is happening, with potentially severe consequences

• Migration is occurring even without climate change

• Some studies show declining migration in response to drought (at least in medium term) or inability to escape floods

• Indeed, likely continued migration to zones at risk of flooding

• Need to disaggregate different types of migration – much movement is within countries/regions and temporary in nature

• Various migration ‘drivers’ – some are more susceptible to environmental change, others less so

• What is interesting is marginal impact on migration trends – the big migration trend right now is to large, low-lying cities in Asia and Africa

WHAT POLICY OPTIONS ARE THERE?

QUESTION 2:

Key components of the 1951 Refugee Convention

• Outside country of origin

Many affected by environmental change have not moved, or have moved internally

• Well-founded fear of persecution

Climate change or other environmental impacts are rarely seen as discriminatory in a way that amounts to ‘persecution’

• For reasons of race, religion, nationality, political opinion of membership of a particular social group

Climate change is indiscriminate – a ‘social group’ must be connected by a fundamental characteristic other than the persecution itself

• Unable to call on the protection of that country

Countries often are able and/or willing to protect

Hurricane Katrina (2005):

•Wealthier able to anticipate and escape

•Poorest trapped in Superdome during crisis

•Higher subsequent long-term displacement of poor

•New in-migration associated with recovery

Delhi

Bangalore

Mumbai

Chennai

Kolkota

Internal migration and environmental change in India

Possibility for:

• Flexible and adaptable governance• Inter-agency links and cooperation• Regional approaches

A policy framework for migration in environmental change

“Reduce”

“Plan For”

“Migration as adaptation”

• Slowing the rate of change

• Reducing the impacts

• Increasing resilience

• Addressing protection gaps

• Planning for urban growth

• Dealing with conflicts

• Relocation as adaptation

• Building new cities

• Making migration work

Source: WGBU (2008)