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Cereals Statistics Section, CropsStatistics Division

January2003Vol. 17,No. 1

Republic of the PhilippinesDepartment of AgricultureBUREAU OF AGRICULTURAL STATISTICSQuezon City

RICE AND CORNRICE AND CORNSITUATION AND OUTLOOKSITUATION AND OUTLOOK

Rice and Corn Situation and Outlook i

EXPLANATORY NOTE

This report contains the 2002 final estimates on palay and corn

crop and forecasts for January-June 2003 based on standing crop and

planting intentions. These are results of the January 2003 Rice and

Corn Production Survey (RCPS) conducted nationwide by the Bureau

of Agricultural Statistics.

The report also presents pertinent information such as monthly

palay, rice and corn prices, rice and corn stocks inventory, and

rainfall. The prices and household stock data are obtained from

various units of BAS. Stocks in commercial and NFA depositories are

obtained from the National Food Authority (NFA) while rainfall data

are sourced from the Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and

Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA).

Rice and Corn Situation and Outlook ii

Page ////

Explanatory Note

Contents

Weather Situation and Outlook

Discussions

I. Calendar Year 2002 Final Crop Estimates

II. January-June 2003 Crop Forecasts

III. Palay/Rice and Corn Prices

IV. Rice and Corn Stock

V. Rainfall

List of Tables

Table 1.0 Palay: 2002 Crop estimates compared to those in 2001 and 2000

by quarter, Philippines

Table 2.0 Corn: 2002 Crop estimates compared to those in 2001 and 2000

by quarter, Philippines

Table 3.0 Palay: 2002 Crop estimates compared to those in 2001 and 2000

by quarter, by farm type, Philippines

Table 4.0 Corn: 2002 Crop estimates compared to those in 2001 and 2000

by quarter, by crop type, Philippines

Table 5.0 Palay/Corn: January-June 2003 Crop forecast compared to 2002 and 2001

estimates, by quarter, Philippines

Table 6.0 Palay: 2002 and 2001 Crop estimates by quarter, by region, Philippines

Table 7.0 Corn: 2002 and 2001 Crop estimates by quarter, by region, Philippines

Table 8.0 Palay: January-June 2003 crop forecasts compared to 2002 estimates

by region, Philippines

Table 9.0 Corn: January-June 2003 crop forecasts compared to 2002 estimates

by region, Philippines

Table 10.0 Palay/Rice: Monthly prevailing prices, Philippines, 2000-2002

Table 11.0 Corn: Monthly prevailing prices, Philippines, 2000-2002

Table 12.0 Rice/Corn: December 1, 2002 stock inventory

Table 13.0 Actual VS Normal cumulative decadal rainfall, January-September and

October-December 2001 and 2002, by region, Philippines

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CONTENTS

Rice and Corn Situation and Outlook iii

WEATHER SITUATION AND OUTLOOK1/

Year 2002 Weather Situation

Rainfall analysis showed that many parts of the country experienced rainfall

deficits from April to September. The condition was aggravated by absence of tropical

cyclone within the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) from September to

December. Under the country’s normal weather situations, one or more tropical

cyclones are recorded each month during this period. This was considered as a

significant climatic event.

The country continuously experienced way below normal rainfall until the last

quarter of 2002. In December 2002, many parts of the country recorded below the

average rainfall except southern Bicol where near normal rainfall was observed. On the

other hand, from October to December 2002, the western and central parts of Mindanao

experienced remarkably deficient rainfall, thus, the very dry condition in these areas

during the period.

The oceanic and atmospheric conditions observed in December indicated that

the El Niño weather phenomenon was in its stage of maturity.

Year 2003 Weather Outlook

The latest numerical and statistical models indicated that the El Niño conditions

may last up to the second quarter of 2003.

Below normal rainfall is expected to prevail in most parts of the country in the

first quarter of 2003. There is a low probability that a tropical cyclone will enter or

develop in the PAR within the period. Less than 300 mm rainfall is expected over

western Luzon, Western and Central Visayas, western, central, and some parts of

1 Excerpt from the November and December issues of El Niño Advisory and Seasonal Outlook for 2003

released on January 6, 2003.

Rice and Corn Situation and Outlook iv

Southern Mindanao. However, Isabela and Quezon provinces, the Bicol region,

Western Samar, northern part of Leyte and the western part of southern Caraga region

will likely experience rainfall ranging from 300 to 500 mm while Eastern Samar and the

eastern part of Mindanao are expected to receive 501 to 900 mm.

Below normal rainfall is still expected to prevail in most parts of the country in

the second quarter of 2003. Less than 300 mm rainfall is expected over northern

Isabela, Cagayan, Southern Tagalog, Camarines Norte and Camarines Sur, Masbate,

Western and Central Visayas, Leyte, Western Samar, western part of Zamboanga,

Southern Mindanao, Misamis Oriental, and Agusan del Norte. Rainfall amounts

ranging from 301 to 500 mm will likely be experienced over Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur,

Kalinga, Isabela, Mountain Province, Eastern Samar, Central Luzon, and Central

Mindanao. Some isolated areas like Pangasinan, La Union, Benguet, Nueva Vizcaya,

Surigao del Sur, Davao del Norte, and Davao Oriental will experience 501 to 900 mm

rainfall.

Most parts of the country are expected to experience near normal rainfall in the

second half of 2003.

RICE AND CORN PRODUCTION SITUATION AND OUTLOOK

CALENDAR YEAR 2002 AND JANUARY-JUNE 2003

This year’s palay harvest hit its highest record ever. Palay production recovered fromthe deep plunge in the drought-stricken first semester crop with better weather conditions inthe second semester that favored plantings and crop development. The corn crop, on theother hand, suffered a cutback in output due to unfavorable weather conditions, but expects aturnaround in the first half of 2003.

A bigger corn crop is anticipated in the first semester of 2003 due to improvements inyield per hectare as weather conditions become more conducive to crop growth. On the otherhand, a drop in palay output is likely following a probable contraction in harvest area ascropping pattern changes in anticipation of the El Niño phenomenon.

I. CALENDAR YEAR 2002 CROP ESTIMATES

A. PALAY

• This year’s palay production reached 13.27 million metric tons and

surpassed last year’s crop by 316 thousand metric tons or 2.4 percent. The

record high palay crop this year was the result of improvement in yield per

hectare by 2.8 percent from 3.19 to 3.28 metric tons.

• The October-December palay crop stood at 5.58 million metric tons, up by

596 thousand metric tons (12.0%) from last year’s level owing largely to

improvement in yield per hectare from 3.20 to 3.40 metric tons and, partly,

to expansion in harvest area. This robust increase in the fourth quarter

compensated the drop in the third quarter crop of 384 thousand metric tons

as harvest area contracted by around 128 thousand hectares, an effect of the

long dry spell.

Rice and Corn Situation and Outlook 2

• Central Luzon, Western Visayas, and Soccsksargen reported big

increments in their fourth quarter harvests with a combined gain of about

400 thousand metric tons. These regions recorded bigger area harvested and

improved yield per hectare during the quarter.

• Favorable weather conditions with well-distributed rainfall, expanded use of

certified and hybrid seeds, sufficient water supply from irrigation and pump

systems, and sufficient fertilizer use boosted crop establishment in most

regions particularly in Central Luzon. In Western Visayas, the Quick

Turn Around (QTA) Program, use of hybrid and certified seeds, extensive

fertilizer use, less weather disturbance, and lower incidence of pests and

disease led to the overall increase in harvest. On the other hand, sufficient

rainfall and less infestation of tungro, rats and black bug gave higher harvest

for Soccsksargen, particularly in North Cotabato and Sultan Kudarat. For

most provinces, early harvests due to use of early maturing varieties resulted

in the quarter’s bigger crop area.

• A total of 7.6 million metric tons of palay crop was harvested in the July-

December period and surpassed last year’s same period production by 2.9

percent, primarily because of improvement in yield per hectare from 3.16 to

3.31 metric tons. A slight (1.8%) cutback in harvest area was, however,

noted.

• Use of good seeds (registered, certified, and hybrid seeds), increased

fertilizer use through the government program, and more favorable weather

conditions that effected sufficient water supply improved yield levels in

most regions. Bigger area was, in general, caused by movement of harvest.


B. CORN

• Total corn crop for 2002 dropped to 4.32 million metric tons from last

year’s 4.52 million metric tons. This 4.5 percent decrease was largely the

result of unfavorable weather conditions that reduced total harvest area by

91 thousand hectares (3.7%).

• Together, Cagayan Valley, Northern Mindanao, and ARMM recorded a

major output drop of 254 thousand metric tons. These regions suffered from

the combined effects of prolonged dry spells, hot weather, and isolated

floodings in July.

• The July-December corn output went down to 2.38 million metric tons

from 2.57 million metric tons last year as the lingering dry weather caused

further drop in harvest area by 89 thousand hectares and around 1.8 percent

decline in yield per hectare.

• The fourth quarter corn crop slid to 858 thousand metric tons from 952

thousand metric tons last year. Said drop compounded the earlier output

shortfall in the second and third quarters of the year. The almost 8.0 percent

(44 thousand hectares) contraction in harvest area coupled by the slight

decrease in yield per hectare contributed to output drop during the quarter.

• Northern Mindanao posted a hefty 44 percent production decline in the

fourth quarter as a result of the combined effects of contraction in harvest

area (38.0%) and drop in yield (10.4 percent). There were reports of

shifting of corn areas to other drought-resistant crops (Bukidnon),

movement of harvest (Misamis Occidental), and curtailed plantings (Lanao

Norte). The long dry spell and cases of corn borer infestation caused the

significant drop in yield.


II. JANUARY-JUNE 2003 PALAY AND CORN CROP FORECAST

A. PALAY

• The January-June 2003 palay crop is forecast at 5.6 million metric tons.

This would be 1.3 percent below the 2002 first semester output. The

anticipated lower crop for the period is attributed to possible shrinkage in

harvest area by 5.0 percent or 88 thousand hectares. A big part of the

reduction is expected in the second quarter.

• The January-March 2003 harvest may reach 3.2 million metric tons. This

would be 4.9 percent over the 2002 same quarter level if yield per hectare

will improve from 3.11 to 3.30 metric tons. Area for harvest during the

period is expected to contract by 1.2 percent (12 thousand hectares).

• Farmers’ fear of insufficient rainfall and drier weather due to El Niño

phenomenon are expected to bring down the April-June 2003 harvest area

by 76 thousand hectares. Consequently, the quarter’s output this year is

expected to drop by 8.6 percent, from 2.61 to 2.39 million metric tons.

• Insufficient rainfall in the last quarter of 2002 resulted in a cut in the

January-March harvest area in Central Visayas and Soccsksargen. Lack

of rain affected 80 percent of rainfed areas in Central Visayas. The adverse

effects of the weather conditions may extend up to the second quarter of the

year. The dry spell also lowered plantings in North and South Cotabato, and

in the latter, plantings were further constrained by the rehabilitation of some

irrigation facilities in the area.


B. CORN

• The January-June 2003 corn crop is expected to reach a high 2.09 million

metric tons or around 160 thousand metric tons more than the 2002 level.

The anticipated increase in output may be brought about by expansion in

harvest area of some 11 thousand hectares and increase in yield from 2.01 to

2.15 metric tons. The bulk of the expected gains will come from the

January-March period.

• A positive outlook for January-March 2003 corn crop is reported as output

may grow by 21.4 percent over last year. There are foreseen expansion in

harvest area by 9.6 percent or 52 thousand hectares and improvement in

yield per hectare by 10.7 percent. Favorable weather conditions and

sufficient soil moisture led to bigger areas for plantings, complemented by

use of good seeds and application of more fertilizer.

• On the other hand, the April-June corn crop may suffer a 9.3 percent cut in

production following a 9.7 percent probable reduction in harvest area.

Farmers were still apprehensive of the extended effect of El Niño

phenomenon as rainfall seemed to be more scant lately. Some farmers did

their plantings earlier while others opted to shift to other cash crops.

• The January-March 2003 harvest area in Central Visayas may be

significantly lower, particularly in Bohol, Cebu, and Siquijor, due to lack

of rains in the fourth quarter of 2002. The anticipation of the El Niño

phenomenon may also bring down the harvest area in the region in the

second quarter of 2003. A lower second quarter harvest area is also

expected in Soccsksargen, particularly Sultan Kudarat and North

Cotabato, due to dry spell.


III. PRICES

A. PALAY/RICE

• The average farmgate price of palay increased to P8.83 per kilogram, about

8.0 percent higher than average price last year. Farmgate price of palay

was quoted lowest at P8.25 in January and highest in August at P9.74.

• Wholesale prices of rice averaged P18.14 per kilogram, up by P0.54 or

about 3.0 percent from prices last year. From the lowest price of P17.50 in

January, it peaked at P19.31 in August. It increased continually from

January to August but dropped in the next four months, a trend which was

observed over the past two years.

• Retail prices of rice were in the uptrend in the first nine months of 2002.

From the lowest quotation of P19.30 per kilogram in January, prices

peaked at P21.31 in September. Prices, however, dropped by P0.76 (4%)

in October and this went on until December.

• Retail prices of rice in 2002 averaged P19.96 per kilogram, about 3.0

percent higher than the 2001 prices.

B. CORN

• The average farmgate price of yellow corn went up very slightly from last

year’s P6.61 to P6.71 per kilogram.

• Yellow corn prices at farmgate from January to May 2002 were notably

lower than their levels in 2000 and 2001. However, by second semester,

prices were higher from 1.0 to 24.0 percent compared to last two year’s

quotations.


• Farmgate price of white corn averaged P7.05 per kilogram in 2002.

Lowest price at P6.52 was quoted in January while the peak price was noted

in March at P7.66, this was about 6.0 percent below last year’s peak price of

P8.18 in April.

• Average wholesale prices of yellow corn ranged from P8.14 (October) to

P9.38 per kilogram (March). The average price for the year was P8.85.

This was 6.0 and 4.0 percent below the average prices in 2001 and 2000,

respectively.

• At wholesale, price per kilogram of white corn was quoted lowest in July at

P7.32 and highest in April at P9.00. Compared to last year, the average

wholesale price of white corn in 2002 was 5.0 percent higher. Prices in

2002 also exhibited higher month on month fluctuations compared to prices

in 2001 and 2000.

IV. STOCKS

A. PALAY/RICE

• The country’s total rice stock level stood at 2.76 million metric tons as of

December 1, 2002. It was 5.8 percent higher than its year ago level. This

was primarily influenced by the 20.2 percent increase in the government

(NFA) stock holdings.

• Compared to the previous month’s stock position, the December 1 stock

level was 10.1 percent higher. This was because all sectors posted increases

from 2.5 to 23.1 percent, indicative of good November palay harvest.


• At an estimated 26,400 metric tons daily requirement, the estimated total

rice stock was good for 104 days. By sector, households held an equivalent

of 53 days supply while commercial establishments and the government

held about 19 and 32 days supply, respectively.

B. CORN

• The December 1, 2002 national corn stock inventory was estimated at 241

thousand metric tons. This was 20.2 and 33.6 percent higher than the

previous month and year ago stock levels, respectively.

• The commercial sector reported increased stock levels while the households

reported a minimal drop (0.9%) from that of the previous month.

Noteworthy is the rise in commercial holdings by 43.9 percent (over last

month) and 58.0 percent (over last year).

• Around 44 percent of the total corn stocks were with the households. NFA

has no reported stocks for the period.

V. RAINFALL

• Cumulative rainfall from January to September 2002 was about 91 percent

of total precipitation in 2001 and 74 percent of normal rainfall.

• Rainfall deficiency further heightened in the last quarter of 2002 with

rainfall becoming more scant, amounting to only 62 percent of that in 2001

or about 54 percent of normal rainfall.


• Luzon received ample rain in the last quarter, amounting to 92 percent of the total

rain in 2001, while Visayas and Mindanao received only a little above 40.0

percent. Nonetheless, the whole country experienced way below to below normal

rainfall levels.

• Among regions, ARMM received the least level of precipitation in the fourth

quarter with only 33 percent of its total rainfall in 2001 and 36 percent of its

normal rainfall. The rest of Mindanao received about 40 to 60 percent of the rain

in 2001 or 39 to 71 percent of its normal rainfall. The Visayas regions, on the

other hand, received 39 to 43 percent of the rain in 2001, about 47 to 53 percent of

their normal rainfall levels.

• Except Southern Tagalog and Bicol, the rest of Luzon experienced more rainfall in

2002 than in 2001 but were still 41 to 61 percent of normal levels.

• For the whole of 2002, with the exception of NCR, the rest of the regions received

below to near normal rainfall level. The Visayas region received the least

precipitation of a little above 60.0 percent of its 2001 and its normal rainfall levels.

• Inadequate rainfall throughout the year affected the planting calendar and yield

levels of both palay and corn crops. Scant rainfall curbed farmers’ plantings,

causing big drops in palay area in second and third quarters. While palay crop

managed to recover in the last quarter, the corn crop experienced the whisk of El

Niño until the last quarter.

Table 1.0 PALAY: 2002 crop estimates compared to those in 2001 and 2002by quarter, Philippines

(UNITS: Production: '000 MT; Area Harvested: '000 Has; Yield/Ha: MT)

ITEM 2001 2000 PERCENT CHANGE

(1) (5) (6)

PRODUCTION JANUARY-DECEMBER 13,271 12,955 12,389 2.4 7.1 January-June 5,672 5,568 5,442 1.9 4.2 January-March 3,058 2,814 2,856 8.7 7.1 April-June 2,614 2,754 2,586 (5.1) 1.1 July-December 7,599 7,387 6,947 2.9 9.4 July-September 2,021 2,405 2,413 (16.0) (16.3) October-December 5,578 4,982 4,534 12.0 23.0

AREA HARVESTED JANUARY-DECEMBER 4,046 4,065 4,038 (0.5) 0.2 January-June 1,753 1,729 1,737 1.4 0.9 January-March 984 932 971 5.6 1.3 April-June 769 797 766 (3.5) 0.4 July-December 2,293 2,336 2,301 (1.8) (0.4) July-September 651 779 798 (16.4) (18.4) October-December 1,642 1,557 1,503 5.5 9.3

YIELD/HECTARE JANUARY-DECEMBER 3.28 3.19 3.07 2.8 6.8 January-June 3.24 3.22 3.13 0.6 3.5 January-March 3.11 3.02 2.94 3.0 5.8 April-June 3.40 3.46 3.38 (1.7) 0.6 July-December 3.31 3.16 3.02 4.8 9.6 July-September 3.10 3.09 3.02 0.3 2.7 October-December 3.40 3.20 3.02 6.3 12.6

NOTE: Yield per hectare and percentage changes were derived from rounded off figures.

(4)(3)

2002

(2)

2002/2001 2002/2000


Table 2.0 CORN: 2002 crop estimates compared to those in 2001 and 2002by quarter, Philippines


ITEM 2001 2000 PERCENT CHANGE

(1) (5) (6)

PRODUCTION JANUARY-DECEMBER 4,320 4,524 4,511 (4.5) (4.2) January-June 1,935 1,955 1,975 (1.0) (2.0) January-March 1,109 1,077 1,008 3.0 10.0 April-June 826 878 967 (5.9) (14.6) July-December 2,385 2,569 2,536 (7.2) (6.0) July-September 1,527 1,617 1,585 (5.6) (3.7) October-December 858 952 951 (9.9) (9.8)

AREA HARVESTED JANUARY-DECEMBER 2,396 2,487 2,510 (3.7) (4.5) January-June 963 966 1,004 (0.3) (4.1) January-March 539 541 540 (0.4) (0.2) April-June 424 425 464 (0.2) (8.6) July-December 1,433 1,521 1,506 (5.8) (4.9) July-September 905 949 903 (4.6) 0.2 October-December 528 572 603 (7.7) (12.4)

YIELD/HECTARE JANUARY-DECEMBER 1.80 1.82 1.80 (1.1) 0.0 January-June 2.01 2.02 1.97 (0.5) 2.0 January-March 2.06 1.99 1.87 3.5 10.2 April-June 1.95 2.07 2.08 (5.8) (6.3) July-December 1.66 1.69 1.68 (1.8) (1.2) July-September 1.69 1.70 1.76 (0.6) (4.0) October-December 1.63 1.66 1.58 (1.8) 3.2


2002/2001 2002/2000 (3) (4)(2)

2002


Table 3.0 PALAY: 2002 Crop estimates compared to those in 2001 and 2000by quarter, by farm type, Philippines


ITEM 2000

(1)

PRODUCTION JANUARY-DECEMBER 13,271 12,955 12,390 2.4 7.1 Irrigated 9,949 9,790 9,413 1.6 5.7 Rainfed 3,322 3,165 2,977 5.0 11.6 JANUARY-MARCH 3,058 2,814 2,856 8.7 7.1 Irrigated 2,371 2,155 2,213 10.0 7.1 Rainfed 687 659 643 4.2 6.8 APRIL-JUNE 2,614 2,754 2,586 (5.1) 1.1 Irrigated 2,311 2,454 2,296 (5.8) 0.7 Rainfed 303 300 290 1.0 4.5 JULY-SEPTEMBER 2,021 2,405 2,413 (16.0) (16.2) Irrigated 1,406 1,736 1,736 (19.0) (19.0) Rainfed 615 669 677 (8.1) (9.2) OCTOBER-DECEMBER 5,578 4,982 4,535 12.0 23.0 Irrigated 3,861 3,445 3,168 12.1 21.9 Rainfed 1,717 1,537 1,367 11.7 25.6

AREA HARVESTED JANUARY-DECEMBER 4,046 4,065 4,038 (0.5) 0.2 Irrigated 2,706 2,726 2,704 (0.7) 0.1 Rainfed 1,340 1,339 1,334 0.1 0.4 JANUARY-MARCH 984 932 971 5.6 1.3 Irrigated 664 611 640 8.7 3.8 Rainfed 320 321 331 (0.3) (3.3) APRIL-JUNE 769 797 766 (3.5) 0.4 Irrigated 622 655 626 (5.0) (0.6) Rainfed 147 142 140 3.5 5.0 JULY-SEPTEMBER 651 779 798 (16.4) (18.4) Irrigated 397 493 501 (19.5) (20.8) Rainfed 254 286 297 (11.2) (14.5) OCTOBER-DECEMBER 1,642 1,557 1,503 5.5 9.2 Irrigated 1,023 967 937 5.8 9.2 Rainfed 619 590 566 4.9 9.4

YIELD/HECTARE JANUARY-DECEMBER 3.28 3.19 3.07 2.8 6.8 Irrigated 3.68 3.59 3.48 2.5 5.7 Rainfed 2.48 2.36 2.23 5.1 11.2 JANUARY-MARCH 3.11 3.02 2.94 3.0 5.8 Irrigated 3.57 3.53 3.46 1.1 3.2 Rainfed 2.15 2.05 1.94 4.9 10.8 APRIL-JUNE 3.40 3.46 3.38 (1.7) 0.6 Irrigated 3.72 3.75 3.67 (0.8) 1.4 Rainfed 2.06 2.11 2.07 (2.4) (0.5) JULY-SEPTEMBER 3.10 3.09 3.02 0.3 2.6 Irrigated 3.54 3.52 3.47 0.6 2.0 Rainfed 2.42 2.34 2.28 3.4 6.1 OCTOBER-DECEMBER 3.40 3.20 3.02 6.3 12.6 Irrigated 3.77 3.56 3.38 5.9 11.5 Rainfed 2.77 2.61 2.42 6.1 14.5


2002/2001 2002/2000 2002 PERCENT CHANGE

(2)

2001

(5)(3) (4) (6)


Table 4.0 CORN: 2002 Crop estimates compared to those in 2001 and 2000by quarter, by crop type, Philippines


ITEM 2000 PERCENT CHANGE

(1)

PRODUCTION JANUARY-DECEMBER 4,320 4,524 4,511 (4.5) (4.2) White 1,797 1,917 1,890 (6.3) (4.9) Yellow 2,523 2,607 2,621 (3.2) (3.7) JANUARY-MARCH 1,109 1,077 1,008 3.0 10.0 White 345 394 394 (12.4) (12.4) Yellow 764 683 614 11.9 24.4 APRIL-JUNE 826 878 966 (5.9) (14.5) White 306 290 328 5.5 (6.7) Yellow 520 588 638 (11.6) (18.5) JULY-SEPTEMBER 1,527 1,617 1,585 (5.6) (3.7) White 642 705 619 (8.9) 3.7 Yellow 885 912 966 (3.0) (8.4) OCTOBER-DECEMBER 858 952 952 (9.9) (9.9) White 504 528 549 (4.5) (8.2) Yellow 354 424 403 (16.5) (12.2)

AREA HARVESTED JANUARY-DECEMBER 2,396 2,487 2,510 (3.7) (4.5) White 1,504 1,566 1,573 (4.0) (4.4) Yellow 892 921 937 (3.1) (4.8) JANUARY-MARCH 539 541 540 (0.4) (0.2) White 287 305 313 (5.9) (8.3) Yellow 252 236 227 6.8 11.0 APRIL-JUNE 424 425 464 (0.2) (8.6) White 237 230 247 3.0 (4.0) Yellow 187 195 217 (4.1) (13.8) JULY-SEPTEMBER 905 949 903 (4.6) 0.2 White 582 618 573 (5.8) 1.6 Yellow 323 331 330 (2.4) (2.1) OCTOBER-DECEMBER 528 572 603 (7.7) (12.4) White 398 413 440 (3.6) (9.5) Yellow 130 159 163 (18.2) (20.2)

YIELD/HECTARE JANUARY-DECEMBER 1.80 1.82 1.80 (1.1) 0.0 White 1.19 1.22 1.20 (2.5) (0.8) Yellow 2.83 2.83 2.80 0.0 1.1 JANUARY-MARCH 2.06 1.99 1.87 3.5 10.2 White 1.20 1.29 1.26 (7.0) (4.8) Yellow 3.03 2.89 2.70 4.8 12.2 APRIL-JUNE 1.95 2.07 2.08 (5.8) (6.3) White 1.29 1.26 1.33 2.4 (3.0) Yellow 2.78 3.02 2.94 (7.9) (5.4) JULY-SEPTEMBER 1.69 1.70 1.76 (0.6) (4.0) White 1.10 1.14 1.08 (3.5) 1.9 Yellow 2.74 2.76 2.93 (0.7) (6.5) OCTOBER-DECEMBER 1.63 1.66 1.58 (1.8) 3.2 White 1.27 1.28 1.25 (0.8) 1.6 Yellow 2.72 2.67 2.47 1.9 10.1


2002/2000 (5) (6)

2002/2001 20012002

(2) (3) (4)


Table 5.0 PALAY/CORN: January-June 2003 crop forecastcompared to 2002 and 2001 estimates, by quarter, Philippines


ITEM PERCENT CHANGE

(1)

PALAYPRODUCTION January-June 5,597 5,672 5,568 (1.3) 0.5 January-March 3,209 3,058 2,814 4.9 14.0 April-June 2,388 2,614 2,754 (8.6) (13.3)

AREA HARVESTED January-June 1,665 1,753 1,729 (5.0) (3.7) January-March 972 984 932 (1.2) 4.3 April-June 693 769 797 (9.9) (13.0)

YIELD/HECTARE January-June 3.36 3.24 3.22 3.7 4.3 January-March 3.30 3.11 3.02 6.1 9.3 April-June 3.45 3.40 3.46 1.5 (0.3)

CORNPRODUCTION January-June 2,095 1,935 1,955 8.3 7.2 January-March 1,346 1,109 1,077 21.4 25.0 April-June 749 826 878 (9.3) (14.7)

AREA HARVESTED January-June 974 963 966 1.1 0.8 January-March 591 539 541 9.6 9.2 April-June 383 424 425 (9.7) (9.9)

YIELD/HECTARE January-June 2.15 2.01 2.02 7.0 6.4 January-March 2.28 2.06 1.99 10.7 14.6 April-June 1.96 1.95 2.07 0.5 (5.3)


2003 Frcst/2002(6)(5)

2003 Frcst/20012001

(4)

20022003Forecast

(3)(2)


Table 6.0 PALAY: 2002 and 2001 Crop estimates by quarter, by region, Philippines

REGION2002 2001 2002 2001 2002 2001 2002 2001 2002 2001

PRODUCTION (M.T.)PHILIPPINES 3,058,094 2,813,930 2,614,275 2,753,901 2,020,796 2,405,187 5,577,488 4,981,852 13,270,653 12,954,870 CAR 34,012 43,222 92,444 93,234 27,943 33,234 149,956 144,605 304,355 314,295 Ilocos 185,352 198,163 53,718 72,749 73,823 97,903 909,399 858,412 1,222,292 1,227,227 Cagayan Valley 477,061 422,635 598,478 617,152 136,867 262,229 495,169 508,180 1,707,575 1,810,196 Central Luzon 331,507 286,097 603,363 654,126 64,139 98,006 1,241,370 1,135,608 2,240,379 2,173,837 Southern Tagalog-A 75,925 91,680 106,467 106,986 42,856 59,520 152,265 137,814 377,513 396,000 Southern Tagalog-B 157,490 149,523 135,060 148,802 97,085 92,931 409,992 354,713 799,627 745,969 Bicol 186,212 161,086 178,402 156,154 140,272 140,399 251,922 239,648 756,808 697,287 Western Visayas 501,052 445,902 144,093 156,101 465,817 552,001 621,640 435,527 1,732,602 1,589,531 Central Visayas 77,537 70,943 32,652 38,808 19,750 22,348 88,785 93,093 218,724 225,192 Eastern Visayas 201,497 191,740 126,015 111,832 99,964 92,392 194,959 169,931 622,435 565,895 Zamboanga Peninsula 116,737 89,283 63,954 63,408 185,278 154,888 139,148 123,501 505,117 431,080 Northern Mindanao 114,655 112,051 119,989 150,658 79,768 93,523 218,096 175,544 532,508 531,776 Davao Region 123,262 112,744 69,165 76,424 106,962 102,417 140,763 110,856 440,152 402,441 Socsksargen 355,701 329,854 92,804 109,374 279,772 399,094 332,639 224,898 1,060,916 1,063,220 A R M M 56,481 67,091 72,010 58,537 156,708 173,428 137,381 145,503 422,580 444,559 Caraga 63,613 41,916 125,661 139,556 43,792 30,874 94,004 124,019 327,070 336,365

AREA HARVESTED (Ha)PHILIPPINES 984,299 932,225 768,901 796,871 651,144 779,519 1,641,974 1,556,826 4,046,318 4,065,441 CAR 9,956 13,056 27,039 24,815 12,473 14,297 46,763 45,849 96,231 98,017 Ilocos 53,519 52,398 16,840 19,102 20,310 26,271 263,459 255,020 354,128 352,791 Cagayan Valley 131,210 127,359 162,333 157,022 37,368 74,178 130,003 140,370 460,914 498,929 Central Luzon 81,021 70,609 133,899 149,151 17,071 24,809 322,885 313,401 554,876 557,970 Southern Tagalog-A 26,751 28,974 30,949 30,233 14,853 21,689 51,815 47,835 124,368 128,731 Southern Tagalog-B 54,741 53,432 43,291 46,217 35,165 35,293 121,681 120,078 254,878 255,020 Bicol 68,404 65,990 53,891 60,650 49,263 52,922 104,413 106,355 275,971 285,917 Western Visayas 186,871 166,688 50,895 56,677 145,390 181,471 201,751 154,397 584,907 559,233 Central Visayas 37,312 34,036 14,967 17,165 6,934 8,035 37,305 39,236 96,518 98,472 Eastern Visayas 85,971 90,619 42,404 40,833 36,040 35,598 63,841 62,274 228,256 229,324 Zamboanga Peninsula 35,687 31,859 19,962 21,000 55,201 53,151 41,016 42,436 151,866 148,446 Northern Mindanao 31,466 29,614 36,217 41,307 23,888 28,403 53,376 46,883 144,947 146,207 Davao Region 31,569 29,298 21,443 23,608 25,640 26,003 33,067 27,047 111,719 105,956 Socsksargen 105,081 97,139 32,004 34,345 83,181 115,656 94,366 67,748 314,632 314,888 A R M M 22,815 25,410 35,318 24,364 71,254 69,515 44,686 45,596 174,073 164,885 Caraga 21,925 15,744 47,449 50,382 17,113 12,228 31,547 42,301 118,034 120,655

YIELD/ HA (M.T.)PHILIPPINES 3.11 3.02 3.40 3.46 3.10 3.09 3.40 3.20 3.28 3.19 CAR 3.42 3.31 3.42 3.76 2.24 2.32 3.21 3.15 3.16 3.21 Ilocos 3.46 3.78 3.19 3.81 3.63 3.73 3.45 3.37 3.45 3.48 Cagayan Valley 3.64 3.32 3.69 3.93 3.66 3.54 3.81 3.62 3.70 3.63 Central Luzon 4.09 4.05 4.51 4.39 3.76 3.95 3.84 3.62 4.04 3.90 Southern Tagalog-A 2.84 3.16 3.44 3.54 2.89 2.74 2.94 2.88 3.04 3.08 Southern Tagalog-B 2.88 2.80 3.12 3.22 2.76 2.63 3.37 2.95 3.14 2.93 Bicol 2.72 2.44 3.31 2.57 2.85 2.65 2.41 2.25 2.74 2.44 Western Visayas 2.68 2.68 2.83 2.75 3.20 3.04 3.08 2.82 2.96 2.84 Central Visayas 2.08 2.08 2.18 2.26 2.85 2.78 2.38 2.37 2.27 2.29 Eastern Visayas 2.34 2.12 2.97 2.74 2.77 2.60 3.05 2.73 2.73 2.47 Zamboanga Peninsula 3.27 2.80 3.20 3.02 3.36 2.91 3.39 2.91 3.33 2.90 Northern Mindanao 3.64 3.78 3.31 3.65 3.34 3.29 4.09 3.74 3.67 3.64 Davao Region 3.90 3.85 3.23 3.24 4.17 3.94 4.26 4.10 3.94 3.80 Socsksargen 3.39 3.40 2.90 3.18 3.36 3.45 3.52 3.32 3.37 3.38 A R M M 2.48 2.64 2.04 2.40 2.20 2.49 3.07 3.19 2.43 2.70 Caraga 2.90 2.66 2.65 2.77 2.56 2.52 2.98 2.93 2.77 2.79

JULY-SEPTEMBER JANUARY-DECEMBEROCTOBER-DECEMBERJANUARY-MARCH APRIL-JUNE


Table 7.0 CORN: 2002 and 2001 Crop estimates by quarter, by region, Philippines

REGION2002 2001 2002 2001 2002 2001 2002 2001 2002 2001

PRODUCTION (M.T.)PHILIPPINES 1,108,830 1,077,219 825,909 878,030 1,526,373 1,617,197 858,150 952,566 4,319,262 4,525,012 CAR 40,172 45,079 12,129 11,742 34,239 34,889 7,071 1,842 93,611 93,552 Ilocos 96,321 81,729 68,017 85,881 14,288 12,251 3,435 2,805 182,061 182,666 Cagayan Valley 312,571 281,564 195,012 229,731 267,088 344,465 57,740 51,417 832,411 907,177 Central Luzon 65,769 47,916 49,922 60,785 5,340 5,024 1,515 340 122,546 114,065 Southern Tagalog-A 5,879 5,317 9,836 9,324 14,546 15,117 11,048 12,539 41,309 42,297 Southern Tagalog-B 15,563 11,374 12,912 15,946 29,384 26,799 4,146 4,636 62,005 58,755 Bicol 16,834 10,159 18,258 15,665 32,053 30,212 6,818 6,806 73,963 62,842 Western Visayas 22,660 16,150 9,088 12,151 46,383 37,094 8,934 10,145 87,065 75,540 Central Visayas 23,348 16,957 7,110 7,932 104,193 100,391 32,309 28,731 166,960 154,011 Eastern Visayas 4,863 4,761 18,096 17,800 13,853 13,606 12,839 11,358 49,651 47,525 Zamboanga Peninsula 16,504 18,735 16,992 23,481 56,796 56,285 44,780 35,808 135,072 134,309 Northern Mindanao 170,993 170,416 63,867 82,935 358,132 350,485 108,219 194,897 701,211 798,733 Davao Region 28,562 22,302 31,394 24,611 54,587 49,226 67,404 52,267 181,947 148,406 Socsksargen 150,422 135,442 134,491 154,249 300,633 293,531 299,509 335,820 885,055 919,042 A R M M 135,534 205,978 165,785 119,195 175,170 222,058 159,863 171,114 636,352 718,345 Caraga 2,835 3,340 13,000 6,602 19,688 25,764 32,520 32,041 68,043 67,747

AREA HARVESTED (Ha)PHILIPPINES 539,592 540,552 423,605 424,867 904,523 949,315 527,736 571,854 2,395,456 2,486,588 CAR 12,587 13,052 3,200 3,213 14,853 16,126 2,314 667 32,954 33,058 Ilocos 25,922 21,693 19,592 23,353 5,950 5,250 1,405 1,294 52,869 51,590 Cagayan Valley 95,360 91,900 63,546 67,945 98,405 118,822 16,251 14,718 273,562 293,385 Central Luzon 15,625 12,792 13,742 15,416 3,654 3,435 718 198 33,739 31,841 Southern Tagalog-A 4,904 4,743 7,720 7,893 13,782 13,352 8,997 10,532 35,403 36,520 Southern Tagalog-B 6,532 6,205 6,347 6,597 15,465 14,913 2,974 3,375 31,318 31,090 Bicol 21,395 15,400 14,019 13,890 47,749 49,606 5,266 5,633 88,429 84,529 Western Visayas 19,765 17,615 8,112 10,493 39,651 35,648 9,912 11,311 77,440 75,067 Central Visayas 42,263 30,896 14,514 14,568 130,883 140,842 54,173 52,132 241,833 238,438 Eastern Visayas 7,354 7,344 20,247 20,485 14,845 14,858 14,969 15,000 57,415 57,687 Zamboanga Peninsula 22,839 24,861 22,595 30,471 73,526 70,883 57,195 49,046 176,155 175,261 Northern Mindanao 88,573 90,671 39,820 41,925 154,250 153,409 57,064 91,928 339,707 377,933 Davao Region 35,950 30,076 28,823 30,871 59,403 55,075 65,406 61,195 189,582 177,217 Socsksargen 76,958 74,646 70,233 75,915 139,889 137,816 146,299 156,771 433,379 445,148 A R M M 60,633 95,063 80,130 55,357 76,928 100,865 62,623 78,757 280,314 330,042 Caraga 2,932 3,595 10,965 6,475 15,290 18,415 22,170 19,297 51,357 47,782

YIELD/HA (MT)PHILIPPINES 2.05 1.99 1.95 2.07 1.69 1.70 1.63 1.67 1.80 1.82 CAR 3.19 3.45 3.79 3.65 2.31 2.16 3.06 2.76 2.84 2.83 Ilocos 3.72 3.77 3.47 3.68 2.40 2.33 2.44 2.17 3.44 3.54 Cagayan Valley 3.28 3.06 3.07 3.38 2.71 2.90 3.55 3.49 3.04 3.09 Central Luzon 4.21 3.75 3.63 3.94 1.46 1.46 2.11 1.72 3.63 3.58 Southern Tagalog-A 1.20 1.12 1.27 1.18 1.06 1.13 1.23 1.19 1.17 1.16 Southern Tagalog-B 2.38 1.83 2.03 2.42 1.90 1.80 1.39 1.37 1.98 1.89 Bicol 0.79 0.66 1.30 1.13 0.67 0.61 1.29 1.21 0.84 0.74 Western Visayas 1.15 0.92 1.12 1.16 1.17 1.04 0.90 0.90 1.12 1.01 Central Visayas 0.55 0.55 0.49 0.54 0.80 0.71 0.60 0.55 0.69 0.65 Eastern Visayas 0.66 0.65 0.89 0.87 0.93 0.92 0.86 0.76 0.86 0.82 Zamboanga Peninsula 0.72 0.75 0.75 0.77 0.77 0.79 0.78 0.73 0.77 0.77 Northern Mindanao 1.93 1.88 1.60 1.98 2.32 2.28 1.90 2.12 2.06 2.11 Davao Region 0.79 0.74 1.09 0.80 0.92 0.89 1.03 0.85 0.96 0.84 Socsksargen 1.95 1.81 1.91 2.03 2.15 2.13 2.05 2.14 2.04 2.06 A R M M 2.24 2.17 2.07 2.15 2.28 2.20 2.55 2.17 2.27 2.18 Caraga 0.97 0.93 1.19 1.02 1.29 1.40 1.47 1.66 1.32 1.42

JANUARY-DECEMBERJANUARY-MARCH APRIL-JUNE OCTOBER-DECEMBERJULY-SEPTEMBER


Table 8.0 PALAY: January-June 2003 crop forecasts compared to 2002 estimates, by region

REGION 2003 2002 2003 2002 2003 2002Jan03 Frcst Jan Frcst Jan Frcst

PRODUCTION (M.T.)PHILIPPINES 3,209,230 3,058,094 2,387,468 2,614,275 5,596,698 5,672,369 CAR 28,467 34,012 101,000 92,444 129,467 126,456 Ilocos 185,964 185,352 42,892 53,718 228,856 239,070 Cagayan Valley 584,974 477,061 475,255 598,478 1,060,229 1,075,539 Central Luzon 372,771 331,507 544,994 603,363 917,765 934,870 Southern Tagalog-A 83,027 75,925 98,808 106,467 181,835 182,392 Southern Tagalog-B 170,597 157,490 139,822 135,060 310,419 292,550 Bicol 211,686 186,212 137,264 178,402 348,950 364,614 Western Visayas 508,441 501,052 102,864 144,093 611,305 645,145 Central Visayas 52,565 77,537 18,541 32,652 71,106 110,189 Eastern Visayas 219,628 201,497 134,543 126,015 354,171 327,512 Zamboanga Peninsula 107,888 116,737 65,740 63,954 173,628 180,691 Northern Mindanao 116,625 114,655 113,184 119,989 229,809 234,644 Davao Region 128,369 123,262 76,151 69,165 204,520 192,427 Socsksargen 319,155 355,701 131,709 92,804 450,864 448,505 A R M M 67,297 56,481 81,340 72,010 148,637 128,491 Caraga 51,776 63,613 123,361 125,661 175,137 189,274

AREA HARVESTED (Ha)PHILIPPINES 971,824 984,299 692,910 768,901 1,664,734 1,753,200 CAR 9,049 9,956 28,463 27,039 37,512 36,995 Ilocos 52,439 53,519 12,176 16,840 64,615 70,359 Cagayan Valley 151,241 131,210 124,346 162,333 275,587 293,543 Central Luzon 89,254 81,021 123,268 133,899 212,522 214,920 Southern Tagalog-A 27,911 26,751 29,433 30,949 57,344 57,700 Southern Tagalog-B 57,143 54,741 42,505 43,291 99,648 98,032 Bicol 73,665 68,404 49,345 53,891 123,010 122,295 Western Visayas 182,973 186,871 37,766 50,895 220,739 237,766 Central Visayas 20,356 37,312 7,163 14,967 27,519 52,279 Eastern Visayas 85,932 85,971 42,435 42,404 128,367 128,375 Zamboanga Peninsula 32,077 35,687 20,043 19,962 52,120 55,649 Northern Mindanao 31,318 31,466 31,798 36,217 63,116 67,683 Davao Region 30,439 31,569 22,394 21,443 52,833 53,012 Socsksargen 86,913 105,081 38,758 32,004 125,671 137,085 A R M M 21,586 22,815 35,087 35,318 56,673 58,133 Caraga 19,528 21,925 47,930 47,449 67,458 69,374

YIELD/ HA (M.T.)PHILIPPINES 3.30 3.11 3.45 3.40 3.36 3.24 CAR 3.15 3.42 3.55 3.42 3.45 3.42 Ilocos 3.55 3.46 3.52 3.19 3.54 3.40 Cagayan Valley 3.87 3.64 3.82 3.69 3.85 3.66 Central Luzon 4.18 4.09 4.42 4.51 4.32 4.35 Southern Tagalog-A 2.97 2.84 3.36 3.44 3.17 3.16 Southern Tagalog-B 2.99 2.88 3.29 3.12 3.12 2.98 Bicol 2.87 2.72 2.78 3.31 2.84 2.98 Western Visayas 2.78 2.68 2.72 2.83 2.77 2.71 Central Visayas 2.58 2.08 2.59 2.18 2.58 2.11 Eastern Visayas 2.56 2.34 3.17 2.97 2.76 2.55 Zamboanga Peninsula 3.36 3.27 3.28 3.20 3.33 3.25 Northern Mindanao 3.72 3.64 3.56 3.31 3.64 3.47 Davao Region 4.22 3.90 3.40 3.23 3.87 3.63 Socsksargen 3.67 3.39 3.40 2.90 3.59 3.27 A R M M 3.12 2.48 2.32 2.04 2.62 2.21 Caraga 2.65 2.90 2.57 2.65 2.60 2.73

APRIL-JUNE 2003 JANUARY-JUNE 2003JANUARY-MARCH 2003


Table 9.0 CORN: January-June 2003 crop forecasts compared to 2002 estimates, by region

REGION 2003 2002 2003 2002 2003 2002Jan03 Frcst Jan Frcst Jan Frcst

PRODUCTION (M.T.)PHILIPPINES 1,345,657 1,108,830 748,796 825,909 2,094,453 1,934,739 CAR 36,238 40,172 12,773 12,129 49,011 52,301 Ilocos 105,561 96,321 68,540 68,017 174,101 164,338 Cagayan Valley 473,315 312,571 121,022 195,012 594,337 507,583 Central Luzon 83,047 65,769 46,009 49,922 129,056 115,691 Southern Tagalog-A 6,695 5,879 9,392 9,836 16,087 15,715 Southern Tagalog-B 15,787 15,563 13,113 12,912 28,900 28,475 Bicol 15,165 16,834 15,121 18,258 30,286 35,092 Western Visayas 30,976 22,660 6,819 9,088 37,795 31,748 Central Visayas 21,975 23,348 5,305 7,110 27,280 30,458 Eastern Visayas 5,498 4,863 18,060 18,096 23,558 22,959 Zamboanga Peninsula 19,417 16,504 17,991 16,992 37,408 33,496 Northern Mindanao 184,044 170,993 74,490 63,867 258,534 234,860 Davao Region 33,921 28,562 39,306 31,394 73,227 59,956 Socsksargen 149,469 150,422 128,840 134,491 278,309 284,913 A R M M 157,530 135,534 162,806 165,785 320,336 301,319 Caraga 7,019 2,835 9,209 13,000 16,228 15,835

AREA HARVESTED (Ha)PHILIPPINES 591,020 539,592 382,783 423,605 973,803 963,197 CAR 11,303 12,587 3,624 3,200 14,927 15,787 Ilocos 27,165 25,922 18,928 19,592 46,093 45,514 Cagayan Valley 129,395 95,360 35,174 63,546 164,569 158,906 Central Luzon 19,532 15,625 12,144 13,742 31,676 29,367 Southern Tagalog-A 5,635 4,904 7,631 7,720 13,266 12,624 Southern Tagalog-B 6,396 6,532 6,389 6,347 12,785 12,879 Bicol 18,094 21,395 12,273 14,019 30,367 35,414 Western Visayas 23,014 19,765 6,581 8,112 29,595 27,877 Central Visayas 38,771 42,263 9,535 14,514 48,306 56,777 Eastern Visayas 7,376 7,354 20,179 20,247 27,555 27,601 Zamboanga Peninsula 22,386 22,839 23,648 22,595 46,034 45,434 Northern Mindanao 99,789 88,573 39,786 39,820 139,575 128,393 Davao Region 32,954 35,950 34,747 28,823 67,701 64,773 Socsksargen 76,765 76,958 63,760 70,233 140,525 147,191 A R M M 66,435 60,633 80,474 80,130 146,909 140,763 Caraga 6,010 2,932 7,910 10,965 13,920 13,897

YIELD/ HA (M.T.)PHILIPPINES 2.28 2.05 1.96 1.95 2.15 2.01 CAR 3.21 3.19 3.52 3.79 3.28 3.31 Ilocos 3.89 3.72 3.62 3.47 3.78 3.61 Cagayan Valley 3.66 3.28 3.44 3.07 3.61 3.19 Central Luzon 4.25 4.21 3.79 3.63 4.07 3.94 Southern Tagalog-A 1.19 1.20 1.23 1.27 1.21 1.24 Southern Tagalog-B 2.47 2.38 2.05 2.03 2.26 2.21 Bicol 0.84 0.79 1.23 1.30 1.00 0.99 Western Visayas 1.35 1.15 1.04 1.12 1.28 1.14 Central Visayas 0.57 0.55 0.56 0.49 0.56 0.54 Eastern Visayas 0.75 0.66 0.89 0.89 0.85 0.83 Zamboanga Peninsula 0.87 0.72 0.76 0.75 0.81 0.74 Northern Mindanao 1.84 1.93 1.87 1.60 1.85 1.83 Davao Region 1.03 0.79 1.13 1.09 1.08 0.93 Socsksargen 1.95 1.95 2.02 1.91 1.98 1.94 A R M M 2.37 2.24 2.02 2.07 2.18 2.14 Caraga 1.17 0.97 1.16 1.19 1.17 1.14

APRIL-JUNE 2003 JANUARY-JUNE 2003JANUARY-MARCH 2003


ITEM

Farmgate 8.47 8.17 8.83 January 8.08 8.00 8.25 February 8.61 8.12 8.43 March 8.66 8.30 8.58 April 8.84 8.25 8.83 May 8.87 8.35 9.11 June 8.93 8.69 9.62 July 9.01 8.64 9.52 August 8.77 8.14 9.74 September 8.23 7.89 8.64 October 7.96 7.79 8.28 November 7.79 7.76 8.40 December 7.88 8.05 8.55

Wholesale 17.77 17.60 18.14 January 17.38 17.59 17.50 February 17.57 17.54 17.59 March 17.64 17.55 17.71 April 17.62 17.51 17.66 May 17.75 17.48 17.75 June 17.86 17.65 18.04 July 18.13 17.89 18.55 August 18.31 18.00 19.31 September 18.16 17.78 19.28 October 17.74 17.45 18.37 November 17.56 17.37 17.98 December 17.51 17.44 17.90

Retail 19.45 19.43 19.96 January 19.00 19.37 19.30 February 19.12 19.36 19.38 March 19.22 19.36 19.38 April 19.21 19.29 19.40 May 19.27 19.33 19.47 June 19.38 19.45 19.68 July 19.74 19.64 20.14 August 19.99 19.68 21.00 September 19.96 19.57 21.31 October 19.64 19.47 20.55 November 19.48 19.30 20.02 December 19.37 19.31 19.94

P/ - Preliminary.

2000 2001 2002 P/

Table 10.0 PALAY/RICE : Monthly prevailing prices, Philippines, 2000-2002

(Peso per kilogram)

7.00

7.50

8.00

8.50

9.00

9.50

10.00

10.50

J F M A M J J A S O N D

PE

SO

PE

R K

G

2000

2001

2002

17.00

17.50

18.00

18.50

19.00

19.50

20.00


PE

SO

PE

R K

G2000

2001

2002

18.50

19.00

19.50

20.00

20.50

21.00

21.50

22.00


PE

SO

PE

R K

G

2000

2001

2002


ITEM

FARMGATE- Yellow 6.47 6.61 6.71 January 7.49 6.85 6.32 February 8.19 7.03 6.59 March 6.88 7.12 6.36 April 6.81 7.22 6.60 May 6.94 7.05 6.76 June 5.57 6.56 6.59 July 5.49 6.36 6.44 August 5.42 6.22 6.71 September 5.76 6.14 6.33 October 6.09 6.34 7.16 November 6.37 6.31 7.07 December 6.65 6.08 7.53

White 6.97 6.94 7.05 January 6.75 6.76 6.52 February 7.78 7.09 7.50 March 7.45 7.65 7.66 April 7.74 8.18 7.34 May 7.80 7.53 7.40 June 7.03 6.59 7.13 July 6.29 7.11 7.10 August 6.30 6.14 6.85 September 6.65 6.88 6.57 October 6.74 6.10 6.77 November 6.74 7.01 7.10 December 6.40 6.19 6.71

WHOLESALE - Yellow 9.22 9.43 8.85 January 9.65 9.73 9.28 February 9.85 9.75 8.85 March 9.32 9.74 9.38 April 9.46 9.53 8.76 May 9.35 9.49 8.65 June 9.38 9.43 9.06 July 8.74 9.40 9.30 August 8.68 9.27 8.76 September 8.74 9.10 8.62 October 9.07 9.19 8.14 November 8.99 9.14 9.05 December 9.36 9.42 8.40

White 7.91 7.50 7.90 January 7.51 7.61 7.53 February 8.07 7.71 7.89 March 8.30 7.89 8.59 April 8.30 8.05 9.00 May 8.27 8.16 8.54 June 8.02 7.79 7.64 July 7.60 7.12 7.32 August 7.60 7.16 8.26 September 7.85 7.14 7.50 October 7.73 7.23 7.35 November 7.76 7.07 7.74 December 7.89 7.08 7.48

P/ - Preliminary.

2000 2001 2002 P/

Table 11.0 CORN: Monthly prevailing prices, Philippines, 2000-2002

(Peso per kilogram)

5.00

5.50

6.00

6.50

7.00

7.50

8.00

8.50


PE

SO

PE

R K

G

2000

2001

2002

5.50

6.00

6.50

7.00

7.50

8.00

8.50


PE

SO

PE

R K

G

2000

2001

2002

7.00

7.50

8.00

8.50

9.00

9.50

10.00

10.50

11.00


PE

SO

PE

R K

G

2000 2001 2002

6.50

7.00

7.50

8.00

8.50

9.00

9.50


PE

SO

PE

R K

G

2000

2001

2002


A. Rice Stock

ITEM

Total Stock 2,755.2 2,503.1 2,604.4 10.1 5.8 Household 1,395.2 1,361.2 1,365.2 2.5 2.2 Commercial * 501.0 443.8 524.5 12.9 (4.5) NFA * 859.0 698.1 714.7 23.1 20.2

* - NFA data P/ - Preliminary.

B. Corn Stock('000 MT)

ITEM

Total Stock1/240.7 200.3 180.2 20.2 33.6

Household 105.3 106.2 94.5 (0.9) 11.4 Commercial * 135.4 94.1 85.7 43.9 58.0 NFA * - - - - -

* - NFA data P/ - Preliminary.1/ - Excludes corn stock held by commercial livestock and poultry producers and corn mixed in feed stock.

Dec/Nov

NOV. 1, 2002 DEC. 1, 2001 Dec/Nov December

P/ 2002

DEC. 1, 2002P/ P/ 2002 2002/2001

Table 12.0 Rice/Corn: December 1, 2002 stock inventory, Philippines

2002/2001P/

PERCENTAGE CHANGE

('000 MT)

PERCENTAGE CHANGENOV. 1, 2002 DecemberDEC. 1, 2002 DEC. 1, 2001

-

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

Household Commercial NFA

Th

ou

sa

nd

Me

tric

to

ns

This Month Last Month Last Year

Figure 1. Rice stock as of December 1, 2002 compared with those of last month and previous year

-

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

Household Commercial NFA

Th

ou

sa

nd

Me

tric

to

ns This Month

Last Month

Last Year

Figure 2. Corn stock as of December 1, 2002 compared with those of last month and previous year


20

01

20

02

NO

RM

AL

20

01

20

02

NO

RM

AL

20

01

20

02

NO

RM

AL

PH

ILIP

PIN

ES

26,5

49.5

2

4,2

33

.3

32

,79

0.7

91

74

1

0,9

39

.0

6,80

5.0

12

,51

1.3

62

54

3

7,4

88

.5

31

,03

8.3

4

5,3

02

.0

83

69

Lu

zon

14,5

18.4

1

2,3

91

.3

16

,15

9.7

85

77

4,

101.

0

3,

766.

0

6,

540.

3

92

58

1

8,6

19

.4

16

,15

7.3

2

2,7

00

.0

87

71

NC

R1,5

15.0

2,0

58.0

1,8

10.0

136

114

290.0

324.0

532.0

112

61

1,8

05.0

2,3

82.0

2,3

42.0

132

102

C

AR

2,2

97.4

1,4

47.1

2,0

83.0

63

69

118.0

222.0

579.0

188

38

2,4

15.4

1,6

69.1

2,6

62.0

69

63

Iloco

s2,3

14.0

2,0

63.0

2,3

80.1

89

87

56.0

193.0

465.9

345

41

2,3

70.0

2,2

56.0

2,8

46.0

95

79

Cagaya

n V

alle

y1,6

42.0

1,1

42.0

1,5

96.0

70

72

432.0

461.0

866.0

107

53

2,0

74.0

1,6

03.0

2,4

62.0

77

65

Ce

ntr

al L

uzo

n1

,91

9.0

1,8

31.1

2,2

22.6

95

82

201.0

207.0

484.4

103

43

2,1

20.0

2,0

38.1

2,7

07.0

96

75

So

. T

ag

alo

g3

,14

0.0

2,6

15.1

3,9

32.0

83

67

1,8

64.0

1,5

52.0

2,2

65.0

83

69

5,0

04.0

4,1

67.1

6,1

97.0

83

67

Bic

ol

1,6

91.0

1,2

35.0

2,1

36.0

73

58

1,1

40.0

807.0

1,3

48.0

71

60

2,8

31.0

2,0

42.0

3,4

84.0

72

59

Vis

ayas

4,16

4.2

3,32

9.0

4,98

1.0

80

67

2,89

6.0

1,21

3.0

2,43

2.0

42

50

7,06

0.2

4,54

2.0

7,41

3.0

64

61

W.

Vis

aya

s1

,21

1.2

928.0

1,5

71.0

77

59

674.0

262.0

554.0

39

47

1,8

85.2

1,1

90.0

2,1

25.0

63

56

C. V

isaya

s884.0

743.0

1,2

95.0

84

57

734.0

310.0

585.0

42

53

1,6

18.0

1,0

53.0

1,8

80.0

65

56

E. V

isaya

s2,0

69.0

1,6

58.0

2,1

15.0

80

78

1,4

88.0

641.0

1,2

93.0

43

50

3,5

57.0

2,2

99.0

3,4

08.0

65

67

Min

dan

ao7,

866.

9

8,

513.

0

1

1,6

50

.0

108

73

3,94

2.0

1,82

6.0

3,53

9.0

46

52

11

,80

8.9

1

0,3

39

.0

15

,18

9.0

88

68

W

. M

ind

an

ao

1,2

49

.0

1,2

77.0

1,7

36.0

102

74

748.0

302.0

775.0

40

39

1,9

97.0

1,5

79.0

2,5

11.0

79

63

No

. M

ind

an

ao

1,3

70

.9

1,5

47.0

2,1

51.0

113

72

616.0

291.0

577.0

47

50

1,9

86.9

1,8

38.0

2,7

28.0

93

67

So

. M

ind

an

ao

1,2

75

.0

1,2

98.0

2,0

16.0

102

64

516.0

310.0

435.0

60

71

1,7

91.0

1,6

08.0

2,4

51.0

90

66

C.

Min

da

na

o1

,08

8.0

1,2

18.0

1,5

23.0

112

80

509.0

213.0

444.0

42

48

1,5

97.0

1,4

31.0

1,9

67.0

90

73

AR

MM

943.0

1,0

69.0

1,4

22.0

113

75

469.0

153.0

425.0

33

36

1,4

12.0

1,2

22.0

1,8

47.0

87

66

Ca

rag

a1

,94

1.0

2,1

04.0

2,8

02.0

108

75

1,0

84.0

557.0

883.0

51

63

3,0

25.0

2,6

61.0

3,6

85.0

88

72

* -

B

ase

d o

n 1

96

1-1

99

0 r

ain

fall

ave

rag

e.

% of

'01

% of

Nor

m

Tab

le 1

3.0

Act

ual

VS

No

rmal

cu

mu

lati

ve d

ecad

al r

ain

fall

Jan

uar

y-S

epte

mb

er a

nd

Oct

ob

er-D

ecem

ber

200

1 an

d 2

002,

by

reg

ion

, Ph

ilip

pin

es

(Mill

ime

ter)

RE

GIO

NJA

NU

AR

Y-S

EP

TE

MB

ER

OC

TO

BE

R-D

EC

EM

BE

RJA

NU

AR

Y-D

EC

EM

BE

R20

02 R

ain

as

20

02

Ra

in a

s2

00

2 R

ain

as

% of

Nor

m%

of '0

1%

of '0

1%

of N

orm

Mo

nth

ly C

um

ula

tive

Rai

nfa

ll V

S N

orm

al R

ain

fall

2001

an

d 2

002,

Ph

ilip

pin

es

-

1,0

00

2,0

00

3,0

00

4,0

00

5,0

00

6,0

00

7,0

00

'01J

F

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

D'02

J

F

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

D

Millimeter

NO

RM

AL

20

01

-20

02

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