revised june 2007...

SPECIAL REPORT REVISED JUNE 2007

Preferred Blueprint Alternative

BlueprintAwards

The Sacramento Region Blue-print: Transportation/ Land UseStudy has received praise fromthroughout the state and nation:

One of the “Top 50” programsin Harvard University’s “Innova-tions in American Government”Competition, Kennedy School ofGovernment (2003)

The Governor’s Award forEnvironmental and EconomicLeadership (2003)

The Federal Highway Admin-istration/Federal Transit Adminis-tration Transportation PlanningExcellence Award (2004)

The American Institute ofArchitects California ChapterPresidential Citation (2004)

The Environmental Council ofSacramento (ECOS) Environmen-tal Leadership Award (2004)

U.S. Environmental ProtectionAgency—National Award forSmart Growth Achievement(2004)

American Leadership ForumMountain Valley Chapter - Thanksto You Award (2004)

Association of MetropolitanPlanning Organizations—National Award for OutstandingAchievement (2004)

Theapproval of thePreferred BlueprintScenario for 2050 bythe SACOGBoard

of Directors in December2004 marked a key step inthe Blueprint process, a three-year effort to engage the pub-lic and local governmentleaders in crafting a vision forthe Sacramento region’sfuture growth.The Project was initiated by

the SACOG Board of Directorsafter it viewed regional com-puter modeling results show-ing that current growth pat-terns and transportation invest-ment priorities would result insignificant increases in conges-tion in the future.A joint effort by SACOG

and its civic partner ValleyVision, the Blueprint Project isbringing together local offi-cials, civic groups, environ-mental advocates, the devel-opment community, businessleaders and the public in afirst-ever attempt to guidehow the region grows overthe next 50 years.Seeking broad input from

the ground up, SACOG andValley Vision in March 2003launched a series of 37 work-shops in neighborhoods, citiesand counties throughout theregion. By the time the work-shops and two RegionalForums had concluded in April2004, more than 5,000 partici-

pants had used the project’sinteractive modeling softwareto study how the region mightlook under different land usescenarios.Input from the workshops

helped create four distinctgrowth scenarios for furtherstudy, including a ‘Base Case’that shows how the regionwould look if growth patternsof the recent past continue.The four were the focal pointof the Regional Forum in April2004 that drew nearly 1,400people. Asked to select a pref-erence, Forum participantsoverwhelmingly rejected theBase Case in favor of alterna-tives providing for a greaterrange of housing choices, rein-vestment in already developedareas and closer integration ofjobs and housing.Following the Forum, a

1,300 person public opiniontelephone poll on growthissues in SACOG’s six-county

region was conducted bynoted pollster Wirthlin World-wide. City and county electedofficials in the region werethen invited to a first-everRegional Summit to discuss aDraft Preferred Blueprint Sce-nario and the results of theWirthlin Poll.The public opinion poll

found strong support for theBlueprint growth principles(found on pages 4–5 and 8–9of this special report) in all sixcounties of the SACOGregion. The elected officials atthe Summit also supportedthese growth principles.The Board’s approval of

the Blueprint as a voluntaryideology or framework forfuture growth in the region isonly the beginning.The next steps in the Blue-

print process are outlinedstarting on page 10 of thisspecial report.

PreferredBlueprint ScenarioMarksKeyMilestone in Process

The first-ever Regional Elected Officials Summit in October 2004.

2 SPECIAL REPORT: Preferred Blueprint Alternative JUNE 2007

Thestarting point forthe Blueprint Proj-ect is the Base CaseScenario, which

shows how the region woulddevelop through 2050 if pat-terns of the recent past con-tinue. Under the Base CaseScenario, growth would con-tinue outward into largelyrural areas and on the fringesof development. The PreferredBlueprint Scenario—theoption developed as an alter-native—takes a differentapproach. Built on the princi-ples of smart growth, itincludes a greater range ofhousing products, reinvest-

TheBaseCase and thePreferredBlueprint Scenario for 2025:

HowtheScenariosCompare

DEVELOPMENTBaseCaseScenario for 2050

What theBlueprint Maps

Show

TheBlueprint map(shown in compari-son to the base caseon this page, and in

detail in the center spread ofthis report) depicts a way forthe region to grow throughthe year 2050 in a mannergenerally consistent with thegrowth principles summarizedon page 4–5 and 8–9 of thisreport. The map is a result ofnumerous public workshopsand meetings with local staffand elected officials. The mapis intended to be interpretedand used as a concept-levelillustration of the growth prin-ciples. It was developed withparcel-level data and analysisto help ensure that the growthconcepts were being appliedin a realistic manner; however,it is not intended to be appliedor implemented in a literal,parcel-level manner.For example, the map

assumes certain levels andlocations of both “reinvest-ment,” i.e. additional develop-ment on already built parcels)and greenfield development,i.e. large-scale developmenton vacant land). The purposeof this mapping is to illustrate,generally, the amounts andlocations for these types ofgrowth. It is not intended toindicate that a specific parcelshould or should not be devel-oped in a particular manner.That level of planning is theresponsibility of local govern-ments, and is beyond thespecificity appropriate forregional-scale, long-term sce-nario planning.

SPECIAL REPORT: Preferred Blueprint Alternative JUNE 2007 3

Key to the Mapareas of existing andfuture development

green areas (e.g. open space,parks, wetlands, vernal pools,stream corridors, hardwoodstands)

agriculture and otherundeveloped lands

rivers, streamsand lakes

city boundaries

highways

county boundaries

Note: Some vernal pools in Yuba,Sutter and southwest Placer coun-ties are preserved, but are notshown on these maps.

Note: El Dorado County elected notto directly participate in this phaseof the Blueprint process due to on-going issues associated with theirGeneral Plan.

For detailed informationTo view the complete land usemaps, including where industry,homes, shopping and other useswould be located in the region,please go to www.sacregion-blueprint.org and click on “TheProject” tab at the top of the page.There you may view maps for eachcity and major county area in theregion and a variety of statisticaland narrative information aboutthe scenarios.

ment in already developedareas, protection of naturalresource areas from urbaniza-tion, and more transportationchoices. The maps belowdepict the differences betweenthe two scenarios.

How to read the mapsThe orange areas show

where current developmentexists, plus new buildings con-structed through 2050, andsome vacant land for futuregrowth. The green areas showa variety of types of undevel-oped areas, including landsprotected from development

through conservation ease-ments, parks, and naturalresources such as wetlands,vernal pools and hardwoodstands that are preserved in2050. The beige areas aremainly agricultural lands, butthey also include some landscurrently designated for devel-opment that remain undevel-oped in 2050.

How would life in 2050be different with eachscenario?The typical resident living

in a version of a future typicalof the “Base Case Scenario” in

2050 would probably live in ahouse on a fairly large lot in asubdivision with houses thatlook a lot like theirs. Theywould travel to work longerdistances than are typicaltoday, and arrive there muchmore slowly due to significantincreases in congestion. Tripsto shopping and entertain-ment would also be fairlylengthy and slow.Typical residents living in a

future typical of the PreferredBlueprint Scenario in 2050would probably live in ahouse on a smaller lot, in aneighborhood with somelarger houses and some

attached row houses, apart-ments and condominiums.They would drive to work, butthe trip would be shorter thantoday, and the time needed toget there would be about thesame as today. Sometimesthey might take the train orbus. Most of their shoppingand entertainment trips wouldstill be in a car, but the dis-tances would be shorter. Andsome of these shopping tripsmight be taken by walking orbiking down the block to avillage or town center that hasneighborhood stores withhousing on top of them, and asmall park or plaza.

DEVELOPMENTPreferredBlueprintScenario for 2050


In urbanized areas, development on infill or vacant lands, intensification of theuse of underutilized parcels (for example, more development on the site of alow-density retail strip shopping center), or redevelopment can make better useof existing public infrastructure. This can also include rehabilitation and reuseof historic buildings, denser clustering of buildings in suburban office parks,and joint use of existing public facilities such as schools and parking garages.

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Preferred Blueprint Scenario

Base Case Scenario

GROWTH THROUGH REINVESTMENT in 2050(in percent)

13% Housing 10% Jobs

0% Housing 0% Jobs

Under the Base Case Scenario, all new development would be on vacantland. The Blueprint Scenario suggests 13 percent of all new housing, and10 percent of all new jobs, would occur through reinvestment.

Use Existing Assets:

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100


Base Case Scenario

Existing

ALL HOUSING TYPES Existing Plus Growth in 2050(in percent)

63%

45%3%

5% 29%

35%

3%

68%5% 25%2%

17%

Rural Residential

Large-lotSingle-family

Small-lotSingle-family

AttachedHomes

Providing a variety of places where people can live—apartments, condomini-ums, townhouses, and single-family detached homes on varying lot sizes—creates opportunities for the variety of people who need them: families, singles,seniors, and people with special needs. This issue is of special concern for thepeople with very low-, low-, and moderate-income, often our teachers, otherpublic employees and professionals, as well as retail employees, service work-ers and other people for whom finding housing close to work is challenging. Byproviding a diversity of housing options, more people have a choice.

Housing Choiceand Diversity:

BLUEPRINT SCENARIO PERFORMANCE ON SMART GROWTH PRINCIPLES

Under the Base Case, in 2050 over two-thirds ofour region’s housing would be single-family homes on large

lots. Under the Blueprint Scenario, most housing would still be detachedsingle-family, but about 17 percent would be single-family homes on small lots. Forattached homes, the Base Case projects one-quarter of all homes in that category.

Under Blueprint, that number would rise to 35 percent.


Creating environments that are more compactly built and thatuse space in an efficient but aesthetic manner can encouragemore walking, biking, and public transit use, and shortenauto trips

0 175 350 525 700


Base Case Scenario

ADDITIONAL URBANIZED LAND Through 2050(in square miles)

304 sm

661 sm

Under the Base Case, new development would need an additional 661 squaremiles of land by 2050. In the Blueprint Scenario, 304 square miles of new landwould be needed for urban uses.

This principle encourages the incorporation of public-use open space (such asparks, town squares, trails, and greenbelts) within development projects, overand above state requirements. It also includes wildlife and plant habitat preser-vation, agricultural preservation and promotion of environment-friendly prac-tices such as energy efficient design, water conservation and stormwater man-agement, and shade trees to reduce the ground temperatures in the summer. Inaddition to conserving resources and protecting species, this principle improvesoverall quality of life by providing places for everyone to enjoy the outdoorswith family outings and by creating a sense of open space.

0 50 100 150 200


Base Case Scenario

AGRICULTURAL LANDCONVERTED TO URBAN USES (in square miles)

102 sm

166 sm

The Base Case would convert 166 square miles of agricultural land intourban uses. With the Blueprint Scenario, 102 square miles would be con-verted from agricultural to urban uses.

Natural ResourcesConservation:

Compact Development:

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Residential “Building” TypesRural ResidentialSingle-family, Large-lotSingle-family, Small-lotAttached Residential

Non-Urban “Land Use” TypesAgricultureForestOpen SpaceParksWater

Residential “Place” TypesMedium-density, Mixed ResidentialHigh-density, Mixed Residential

Mixed-Use “Place” TypesLow-density, Mixed-use Center or CorridorMedium-density, Mixed-use Center or CorridorHigh-density, Mixed-use Center or CorridorEmployment-focus, Mixed-use Center or Corridor

Vacant Urban-designated Lands (2050)

Vacant Rural Residential Lands (2050)

Employment “Building” TypesRetailOfficeIndustrialPublic

Note: El Dorado County electednot to directly participate in thisphase of the Blueprint process dueto on-going issues associated withtheir General Plan.

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7PreferredBlueprintScenario for 2050


0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100


Base Case Scenario

PEOPLE LIVING IN AREAS WITH GOODOR EXCELLENT PEDESTRIAN FEATURES (in percent, 2050)

34%

69%

In the Base Case, 34 percent of people would live in pedestrian-friendlyneighborhoods. In the Blueprint Scenario, in 2050 that number would rise to69 percent.

The design details of any land use development—such as the relationship tothe street, setbacks, placement of garages, sidewalks, landscaping, the aes-thetics of building design, and the design of the public right-of-way (the side-walks, connected streets and paths, bike lanes, the width of streets)—are allfactors that can influence the attractiveness of living in a compact develop-ment and facilitate the ease of walking and biking to work or neighborhoodservices. Good site and architectural design is an important factor in creating asense of community and a sense of place.

Design for Quality:

Well planned and designed mixed use developments encompass all of the ele-ments of the other growth principles. Buildings homes and shops, entertainment,office and even light industrial uses near each other create active, vital neighbor-hoods, or villages. This mixture of uses can be either in a vertical arrangement(mixed in one building) or horizontal (with a combination of uses in close proximi-ty). These types of projects function as local activity centers, contributing to asense of community, where people tend to walk or bike to destinations and inter-act more with each other. Separated land uses, on the other hand, lead to more,and longer, automobile trips because of the distance between uses. Mixed land

uses can occur at many scales. Examples include: a hous-ing project located near an employment center, a

small shopping center located within a res-idential neighborhood, and a buildingwith ground floor retail and apartments

or condominiums on theupper floor(s).

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100


Base Case Scenario

PEOPLE LIVING IN AREAS WITH GOOD MIX OF JOBS AND HOUSING(in percent, 2050)

26%

53%

Under the Base Case scenario, 26 percent of people would live in communi-ties with a good, or balanced, mix of land uses by 2050. In the BlueprintScenario, 53 percent would live in balanced communities.

Mixed UseDevelopments:

BLUEPRINT SCENARIO PERFORMANCE ON SMART GROWTH PRINCIPLES


0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100


Base Case Scenario

Existing

DAILY VEHICLE MINUTES OF TRAVEL(per household per day)

64 minutes

81 minutes

67 minutes

0 10 20 30 40 50


Base Case Scenario

Existing

VEHICLE MILES TRAVELED(per household per day)

41.9

47.2

34.9

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Draft Preferred Blueprint Scenario

Base Case Scenario

Existing

TYPE OF TRIPS(in percent)

0.8%

3.3%

5.5%

12.9%

93.7%

1.1% 6.9%92%

Auto Transit Wal k or Bike

83.9%

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100


Base Case Scenario

PER CAPITA CARBON DIOXIDE AND SMALL PARTICULATES EMISSIONS (from vehicles 2050)

100%

85%

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100


Base Case Scenario

GROWTH NEAR TRANSIT Within walking distance of 15-minute or better transit service

5% Jobs 2% Housing

41% Jobs 38% Housing

Developments should be designed to encourage people to sometimeswalk, ride bicycles, ride the bus, ride light rail, take the train or carpool.Use of Blueprint growth concepts for land use and right-of-way designwill encourage use of these modes of travel and the remaining auto tripswill be, on average, shorter.

Total time devoted to travel per household per day declines from81 minutes to 67 minutes.

The number of vehicle miles traveled per day per household declinesfrom 47.2 miles to 34.9 miles.

In the Base Case, 2 percent of new housing and 5 percent of new jobsare located within walking distance of 15-minute bus or train service.In the Blueprint Scenario, those figures rise to 38 percent of newhouses and 41 percent of new jobs.

With the Blueprint Scenario, per capita, there would be14 percent less carbon dioxide (greenhouse gas) and particulates (relat-ed to asthma) compared to the Base Case.

The Blueprint Scenario reduces the number of trips taken by car by about10 percent. These trips are shifted to transit, walking or biking.

Provide TransportationChoices:

NextSteps for theBlueprintProject

This section outlines what is expectedto occur in the future using the data, analysis andgrowth concepts that have been developed through

the Blueprint process to date.


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Sacramento

West Sacramento

Davis

Woodland

Elk Grove

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Marysville

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P L A C E RC O U N T Y

E L D O R A D OC O U N T Y

S A C R A M E N T O C O U N T Y

Y O L O C O U N T Y

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Y U B A C O U N T Y

Yuba City

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Winters

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Roseville

RocklinLoomis

CitrusHeights

RanchoCordova

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Placerville

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TRAFFIC CONGESTIONBaseCaseScenario for 2050

Key to the TrafficCongestion Maps

Traffic approachingcapacityTraffic exceedscapacity

SACOG will work with itsmember cities and counties to:

Maintain and enhance theregional database, research andmodeling tools and makethem available for use on anon-going basis.

Continue to implement theCommunity Design Programin order to provide incentivesfor capital and planning proj-ects that are consistent withBlueprint.

Provide technical assistanceto local governments and thedevelopment community todevelop plans and designprojects that are consistentwith Blueprint.

Develop a tool-box of BestPlanning and DevelopmentPractices that are consistentwith Blueprint (e.g. modelcodes, Guidebook for usingBlueprint principles to pro-mote neighborhood livabil-ity, street design guidelines,on-line tutorials and manualfor using the PLACE3S soft-ware, model educational andcitizen involvement prac-tices, etc.).

Track and publicize localplanning and developmentactions consistent with Blue-print, and consider imple-menting a Blueprint awards orcertification system.


Prepare a 2035 growth fore-cast and land use allocation thatrepresents the best estimate ofwhat type of development ismost likely to occur, takinginto consideration past andprojected market, demo-graphic and regulatory trendsand consideration of actionslocal governments have takenand any future actions theyindicate they are likely to taketo help support Blueprintgrowth principles (see follow-ing “Notes” for further details).

Develop and implement aBenchmarking system to occuron a regular basis to track theextent to which the region is

growing in ways that improvethe transportation system andair quality, and are consistentwith Blueprint. Examples of

topics to be monitoredincluded, but are not limitedto: transportation system per-formance (e.g. congestion,

travel times, trip distances,types of trips), type andamount of housing con-structed, air emissions, mix ofland uses, and amount of newland devoted to urbanization.The system must take intoaccount local differences, mar-ket and regulatory considera-tions, and the fact that manyaspects of Blueprint will needto be phased in over time.

Conduct a study of otheractions that could be taken toreduce barriers and takeadvantage of opportunities to

Blueprint Next Steps…continued on page 12

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West Sacramento

Davis

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Elk Grove

Galt

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Marysville

Wheatland

P L A C E RC O U N T Y

E L D O R A D OC O U N T Y

S A C R A M E N T O C O U N T Y

Y O L O C O U N T Y

S U T T E R C O U N T Y

Y U B A C O U N T Y

Yuba City

Live Oak

Winters

Folsom

Colfax

LincolnAuburn

Roseville

RocklinLoomis

CitrusHeights

RanchoCordova

S

Placerville

510 0 10 miles

TRAFFIC CONGESTIONPreferredBlueprintScenario for 2050

Participants at the Yolo County Blueprint workshop review growth alternatives.


1415 “L” Street, Suite 300 • Sacramento, CA 95816 • tel 916.321.9000 • fax 916.321.9551 • tdd 916.321.9550

Sacramento Area Council of Governments • Valley Vision

Each time SACOGadopts an MTP itmust first adopt a25- to 30-year

growth forecast for theregion, and a land use allo-cation that specifies its bestestimate of the most likelyplaces where that growthwill occur (i.e. how muchand what type of growth willgo to each city and countyover the next 25-30 years).These same choices must bemade to support the nextcomprehensive MTP update;however, in order to con-sider changes to future landuse patterns that may occuras the result of the BlueprintMap and Growth Principles amore detailed and explicitprocess will be necessary.This is important becauseBlueprint project researchclearly shows that changes tolocal land use patterns couldachieve significant benefits to

the region’s transportationsystem and air quality. Inorder to take credit for thesetransportation and air qualitybenefits, it must be shownthat the changes to the landuse pattern are more likelyto occur than a continuationof the past land use patterns.To help create the 2035

land use map and allocationfor the next comprehensiveMTP update, SACOG askedeach local government todevelop an individualizedstrategy for determininghow—or if—it would pursueactions, over time, that helpto achieve the planning prin-ciples in the Blueprint Sce-nario as planning and growthdecisions are made. SACOGstaff provided technical assis-tance to support these efforts.Each jurisdiction was askedto pass a resolution in sup-port of a growth allocationand accompanying 2035 map

for their jurisdiction thatreflect their jurisdiction’sneeds and interests. Eachjurisdiction, at its choice,could also elect to include aspart of the resolution a state-ment of what actions theywill agree in principle to pur-sue that are supportive ofimplementing the growthallocation and the 2035 Map.The list of supportive

actions is different for eachjurisdiction. Examples oftypes of actions included are:adoption of guidelines thatcould be used to considerBlueprint principles in a vari-ety of local planning deci-sions, changes to decision-making procedures, consider-ation of General Plan andimplementing code amend-ments, identifying opportuni-ties to encourage reinvest-ment, and using the regionaldatabase and modeling toolsin community planning

processes. It is expected thatthese actions will be phasedin over several years, and thatthe local governments willmake the final decisions onwhat specific changes toadopt after completing typicallocal planning processes,including citizen participation.

Notes onPreparation of 2035 LandUseAllocation fortheNextMetropolitan TransportationPlan

implement Blueprint growthprinciples. Recommendationsfor possible action will be for-warded to the SACOG Board

of Directors as opportunitiesare identified. It is expectedthat this study would include,but not be limited to: stateissues such as CEQA, con-struction defect liability andprevailing wage reform;

amendments to standards,guidelines and decisionprocesses in local codes; sys-tems to manage the supply ofland for urban developmentthrough multi-jurisdictionalcooperation that ensure anadequate and reliable supplyof land for housing and otheruses, reduce upward pressureson land prices, preserve natu-ral resources and farmlandand encourage infill and rein-vestment; and methods forproviding green and openspace throughout the region.

Update the Blueprint Con-ceptual Map and GrowthPrinciples regularly toinclude new and better infor-

mation and knowledge. Thiswill occur annually wheneverfeasible, and no less fre-quently than the updatecycle for the MetropolitanTransportation Plan.

Blueprint Next Steps…continued from page 11

CONTACTINFORMATION

A. J. TendickPublic Information [email protected]

Kacey LizonProject [email protected]

Over 1,400 area residents participated inthe 2004 Regional Forum and made rec-ommendations on Blueprint scenarios.

The first-ever Regional Elected Officials Summit.

revised june 2007...

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