REVIEW OF CURRENT STATUS OF THE AGRICULTURE SECTOR IN

ZIMBABWE

INTER-AGENCY CONSULTATION MEETING ON USER INTERFACE PLATFORM (UIP),

AGRICULTURE, FOOD SECURITY AND WATER SECTORS OF THE GLOBAL FRAMEWORK FOR CLIMATE SERVICES, FAO, ROME, ITALY, 26 -

28 SEPTEMBER 2011

BARNABAS CHIPINDU, DEPARTMENT OF PHYSICS, UNIVERSITY OF ZIMBABWE

PRESENTATION OUTLINE

INTRODUCTION

CROP PRODUCTION

LIVESTOCK PRODUCTION

CLIMATE SERVICES

CONCLUSION

INTRODUCTION

Agriculture is the backbone of Zimbabwe's economy

The sector provides employment for large number of the population

Agriculture provides about 60 percent of all raw materials for industry

INTRODUCTION CONT.

The country receives most of during summer months (November to March)

A considerable potential exists for the production of irrigated crops during dry months in areas where stored water supplies are available

INTRODUCTION CONT.

Recent droughts have caused the agricultural sector to experience crop failure and livestock losses

Rain-fed crop production is also affected by climate variability and change while winter crop production is affected by frost

INTRODUCTION CONT.Agriculture Sector has undergone significant transformation in recent years as a result of land redistribution programme

Categories of practitioners in the agriculture sector : communal, A1, A2, old resettled (OR), small-scale commercial farmers (SSCF) and large-scale commercial farmers (LSCF) and more recently peri-urban

CROP PRODUCTION 

Most crops experienced a decline during the period 2000 to 2004, with a marked decrease in 2008 but there were increases in production of some crops such as maize and groundnuts, in 2005, 2006, 2007 and 2009

CROP PRODUCTION

CROP PRODUCTION

Wheat production has decreased almost six times during the period 2000 to 2009 due to lack of financial supportBarley production in 2009 was more than double that in 2000, a factor which may be attributed to market forcesPotato production steadily increased from 2000 to 2008 before decreasing slightly in 2009

CROP PRODUCTION CONT.

• Potato production steadily increased from 2000 to 2008 before decreasing slightly in 2009

• Sweet potato production increased slightly while tea production shows no significant change

• Sugarcane production was steady from 2000 to 2004, decreased in 2005 and 2006 before becoming steady for the remainder of the period

CROP PRODUCTION (TONNES) ESTIMATESCrop Area

(ha)Area (ha)

Change (%)

Production (Mt)

Production (Mt)

Change (%)

Yield (t/ha)

Yield (t/ha)

Change (%)

  2009/10 2010/11   2009/10 2010/11   2009/11 2010/11  

Banana 4 000 4 000 0 180 000 180 000 0 20 20 0

Cabbage 4 989 5 300 6 149 670 159 000 6 30 30 0

Citrus 3 000 3 000 0 60 000 60 000 0 20 20 0

Coffee 900 900 0 2 700 2 700 0 3 3 0

Cotton 338 270 379 689 12 260 000 220 219 -15  0.77 0.58  -15

Finger Millet 54 371 63 287 16 12 403 16 627 34 0.23 0.31 35

Groundnuts 424 532 426 806 0.5 186 214 230 475 24 0.44 0.54 23

Maize 1 803542 2 096 035 16 1 327 572 1 451 629 9 0.81 0.82 1.2

Onion 4 020 4 200 4 120 600 168 000 39 30 40 33

Pearl Millet 189 643 164 895 -13 49 840 44 666 -10 0.26 0.31 19

Irish Potato 3 200 3 800 19 86 400 110 200 28 27 29 7

Sorgum 386 584 304 693 -21 131 644 94 789 -28 0.34 0.38 12

Soybean 48 010 60 124 25 70 256 84 173 20 1.46 1.40 -4

Sugar beans 30715 26 778 -13 17 200 13 121 -24 0.46 0.49 7

Sugar cane 36 174 38 000 5 2 338 300 2 565 000 10 64.6 67.5 5

Tea 3 500 3 500 0 10 500 10 500 0 3 3 0

Tobacco 100 287 148 160 48 123 400 177 792 44 1.23 1.20 -2

Tomato 6 200 6 500 5 217 000 260 000 20 35 40 14

CROP PRODUCTION CONT.

• Production of most crops increased during the 2010/11 cropping season when compared with the 2009/10 season

• Significant increases were registered by tobacco (44 %) onion (39%), finger millet (34%) and Irish potato (28%)

• Production of cotton, pearl millet, sorgum, sugar beans and sunflower declined with sorgum experiencing the largest decline of 28 percent

CROP PRODUCTION CONT.

Positive increases in crop production were achieved despite the 2010/11 season being not ideal for cropping

There was too much rainfall in January 2011 resulting in water logging, nutrient leaching, and poor weed control

The wet spell was followed by a prolonged dry spell from the end of January to the end of March 2011

CROP PRODUCTION CONT.

Increased tobacco production can be attributed to increased cropped area in response to high tobacco selling prices offered the previous season

MAIZE PRODUCTION

Maize production increased by 9%

Increase to larger hectarage and better yields in the high potential maize producing areas

The high potential maize producing areas did not experience the prolonged dry spell

LIVESTOCK NUMBERS

Species Number

Cattle 5 156 753

Sheep 502 205

Goats 3 072 850

Pigs 258 091

Donkeys 371 795

TOTAL 9 361 694

LIVESTOCK PRODUCTION

Calving rates stood at 45% in April 2011 which is an increase of 10% when compared to 2010

The national average cattle mortality was 4.4% which is slightly above the acceptable 3%

The pig sow herd was 7 000 in 2009 and increased to 12 000 in 2010

THERE WAS A 26% DECLINE IN THE NUMBER OF GOATS IN 2010 COMPARED TO 2009

THIS WAS PROBABLY DUE TO INCREASED MARKET DEMAND

SHEEP POPULATION DECREASED FROM 2001 TO 2007 BEFORE STARTING TO INCREASE  

LIVESTOCK PRODUCTION

PIG PRODUCTION DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY FROM 2 000 DUE STOCK FEED SHORTAGES

THE NATIONAL COMMERCIAL SOW HERD DECLINED FROM 14 000 IN 2000 TO 9 000 IN 2004, RECOVERED TO ABOVE 16 000 SOW UNITS IN 2007, DECLINED IN 2009 TO ABOUT 7 000 AND THEN RECOVERED TO 12000

PIG PRODUCTION

THE PRODUCTION OF POULTRY AND POULTRY PRODUCTS HAS BEEN STEADILY INCREASING SINCE 2007

DAY OLD BROILER CHICK PRODUCTION WAS ABOUT 2 MILLION PER MONTH IN 2011

POULTRY PRODUCTION

DAIRY HERD DECREASED FROM 97 460 IN 1995 TO 25 000 IN 2009

THE DAIRY HERD INCREASED TO 28 000 IN 2010

MILK PRODUCTION DECREASED MARKEDLY FROM 1995 TO 2010

DAIRY PRODUCTION

THE DECLINE IS MILK PRODUCTION HAS BEEN ATTRIBUTED TO SHORTAGES OF ANIMAL FEED, LOW PRICES PAID FOR MILK PRODUCTION AND IMPORTS OF CHEAPER MILK AND MILK PRODUCTS FROM THE REGION

DAIRY PRODUCTION

SHORT-RANGE WEATHER FORECAST (UP TO THREE DAYS)

TEN-DAY WEATHER FORECASTS

SEASONAL WEATHER FORECASTS FROST PREDICTION DURING THE COLD SEASON,

 

CLIMATE SERVICES FOR AGRICULTURE

FIRE – DANGER ESTIMATES DURING THE DRY SEASON EARLY WARNING OF EXTREME WEATHER

CLIMATE SERVICES FOR AGRICULTURE

ZONE 4: NORTH-EASTERN HALF ZIMBABWE. INCREASED CHANCES OF NORMAL TO BELOW-NORMAL RAINFALL ZONE 5: SOUTH-WESTERN HALF OF ZIMBABWE. INCREASED CHANCES OF NORMAL TO BELOW-NORMAL RAINFALL

SEASONAL WEATHER FORECAST (OND 2011)

ZONE 4: NORTHERN HALF OF ZIMBABWE. INCREASED CHANCES OF ABOVE NORMAL TO NORMAL RAINFALL ZONE 5: SOUTHERN HALF OF ZIMBABWE. INCREASED CHANCES OF ABOVE NORMAL TO NORMAL RAINFALL

SEASONAL WEATHER FORECAST (JFM 2012)

THE NUMBERS FOR EACH ZONE INDICATE THE PROBABILITIES OF RAINFALL IN EACH OF THE THREE CATEGORIES, BELOW-NORMAL, NORMAL AND ABOVE-NORMAL.

SEASONAL WEATHER FORECAST

THE TOP NUMBER INDICATES THE PROBABILITY OF RAINFALL OCCURRING IN THE ABOVE-NORMAL CATEGORY, THE MIDDLE NUMBER IS FOR NORMAL AND THE BOTTOM NUMBER IS FOR BELOW-NORMAL

SEASONAL WEATHER FORECAST

DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURAL EXTENSION (AGRITEX) DOWNSCALES THE SEASONAL WEATHER FORECAST AND ADVISES FARMERS ON CROPPING PATTERNS AND LIVESTOCK NUMBERS

OTHER SERVICES

DURING THE GROWING SEASON THE NATIONAL EARLY WARNING UNIT WITHIN AGRITEX IN CONSULTATION WITH THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES DEPARTMENT PRODUCES AND DISTRIBUTES THE CROP AND LIVESTOCK SITUATION REPORT TO STAKEHOLDERS

OTHER SERVICES

CROP AND ANIMAL PRODUCTION IS AFFECTED BY CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND CHANGE

PROVISION OF CLIMATE SERVICES IN A TIMELY MANNER CAN ASSIST THE AGRICULTURAL SECTOR TO INCREASE PRODUCTION

CONCLUSION

A MAJOR CHALLENGE IS THE PRODUCTION OF HIGH QUALITY CLIMATE PRODUCTS AND TIMELY PROVISION CLIMATE SERVICES TO USERS THAT ARE MOST THAT ARE MOST VULNERABLE TO AND HAVE THE LEAST ADAPTIVE CAPABILITY OF THE NEGATIVE IMPACTS OF THE WEATHER AND CLIMATE

CONCLUSION

THANK YOU, GRAZIE