Review for exam II—fall 2013

October 16, 2013

Format for exam

• 30 -- 40 multiple choice• 3 sets of discussion questions

• Identical in format to previous exam

Bring…/Don’t Bring…

• Bring…– Scantron sheet– Pencil, eraser, calculator

• Don’t Bring…– Paper– PDAs, Pocket PC’s, tablets, – Programmable, high memory storage devices

We Covered:

• Burns Chs 4, 7, 8• Schwalbe 3, 4, 6• {will not test you on Burns ch 8 on this

exam}

Estimation

• Weakest link• History database• By analogy• Use models • Top down—uses…..XXXXXXX??• Bottom up – uses…..XXX??• Reconciliation of top down and bottom up

Parkinson’s Law

• What is it??

The length of timeTo do a task

Fills up the timeAllotted for it

ProcessesPMBOK Guide 4th Edition

Project Integration Management - Develop Project Charter - Develop Project Management Plan - Direct and Manage Project Execution - Monitor and Control Project Work - Perform Integrated Change Control - Close Project or Phase

Project Scope Management - Collect Requirements - Define Scope - Create WBS - Verify Scope - Control Scope

Project Time Management - Define Activities - Sequence Activities - Estimate Activity Resources - Estimate Activity Durations - Develop Schedule - Control Schedule

More Processes

Project Cost Management - Estimate Costs - Determine Budget - Control Costs

Project Quality Management - Plan Quality - Perform Quality Assurance - Perform Quality Control

Project Human Resource Management - Develop Human Resource Plan - Acquire Project Team - Develop Project Team - Manage Project Team

What are the processes that make up the cost management

knowledge area?• Estimate Costs• Determine Budget• Control Costs

What are the processes that make up the quality management

knowledge area?• Plan Quality• Perform Quality Assurance• Perform Quality Control

Methodologies

• Waterfall – Document-driven—CASE tools• Spiral—risk-driven—invented by Barry Bhoem• RAD—superior to SAD• Agile/Iterative—increasingly popular

– Scrum– RUP

Process Map

Waterfall

Iterative

Low CeremonyHigh CeremonyLittle Doc, light process discipline

Heavy Doc, heavy process discipline, CCB

Risk Driven, Continuous integration and testing

Few risks, late integration and testing

The Waterfall StaircaseDefinition of Requirements

Analysis

Design

Construction

System IntegrationTesting

Acceptance Testing

Implementation

Operation

Figure 2-3. Spiral Model of Software Dev.

What is the homegound for Waterfall?

• Stable requirements – few changes• Large monolithic app—can’t be broken up• Difficult development

– Mathematical algorithms– Compliers– Database engines– Artificial intelligence apps

Home Ground for Agile

• Unstable/unknown requirements• Rapid technological change• An environment accommodative of change• An environment conducive to learning

• The latter two are accommodated together

The Transform Model

• Did it work?

NO!!!

Writing a specification was not different from coding

We also covered

•Probabilistic PERT (formulas will be given to you)– Each task (activity) requires three time

estimates – Optimistic, Most likely, Pessimistic

•Crashing

Further comments

• Burns 6-13: Almost all of you did this wrong—you did not follow my solution in class, nor did you follow the solution provided in Chapter 6 of Burns

Further Recitation• What is meant by feasibility?• What are three kinds of feasibility?

– General, economic (financial), technical• What is meant by a risky decision?

– State probabilities are KNOWN– Upside only, downside only, or both

• What is meant by an uncertain decision?• How can decision theory help us make

better project decisions?

Know MS Project Navigation

• What tool is used to specify subordination?• What tool is used to link tasks sequentially?• What tool is used to assign resources?• How do you enter resources and their hourly

rates?• How do you show COST on the Entry table?• How do you specify durations?• What enables you to see ES, EF, LS, LF, Slack

Topics--Chapter 6

• Must understand what Bayesian revision does for you

• Will have to do analyses exactly like that in Chapter 6– DMUU—Decision Making under Uncertainty– DMUR—Decision Making under Risk

Decision Making under Uncertainty

• Choose alternatives—must be mutually exclusive

• Choose states—must be mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive

• For each alternative/state pair specify a payoff

• What are the decision criteria? They are based on the DM’s attitude toward the situation—pessimist, optimist, regretist, etc

To solve a problem like 6-10, you must

• Do both DMUU and DMUR• Recall that EPPI and EVPI are not decision

criteria, like EV* (maximal expected value) and ER* (minimal expected regret)

To solve a problem like 6-12 or 6-13, you must

• First, solve the decision problem without any additional information– Determine the optimal choice– Compute EPPI and EVPI

• Second, perform Bayesian revision• Third, solve decision problem assuming a positive

predictor state (consultant predicts SUCCESS)• Fourth, solve decision problem assuming a negative

predictor state (consultant predicts FAILURE)• Compute EPSI and EVSI

Remember…

• EPPI = expected payoff of perfect information is not a decision criterion … tells us the payoff of perfect information

• EVPI = EPPI – EV*(WITHOUT ADD’TL INFORMATION) … tells us how

much perfect information would be valued

• EVPI = expected value of PERFECT information• EPSI = expected payoff of sample information• EVSI = EPSI – EV*(WITHOUT ADD’TL INFORMATION)

• EVSI = expected value of sample information… tells us how much sample information would be valued—how much we might be willing to pay for additional information