RETENTION, PROGRESSION & GRADUATION:DEGREE COMPLETION ANALYSIS AND

SIX-YEAR GRADUATION RATESTELL DIFFERENT STORIES

SAIR Award for Best Paper in 20072008 AIR Forum -- Session 709

Ed Rugg, Donna Hutcheson & Erik BoweEnterprise Information Management

Kennesaw State Universityhttp://vic.kennesaw.edu

THE SKY IS FALLING!THE SKY IS FALLING!THE SKY IS FALLING!THE SKY IS FALLING!

Education Trust Education Trust strikes an strikes an alarmist alarmist cord -- cord -- far too far too many entering many entering students fail to earn students fail to earn a baccalaureate a baccalaureate degree within six degree within six years, especially years, especially minorities.minorities.

USDOE AND STATE SYSTEMS USDOE AND STATE SYSTEMS USE 6YR GRADUATION RATEUSE 6YR GRADUATION RATE

FOR ACCOUNTABILITYFOR ACCOUNTABILITY But, Beware…But, Beware… This model for RPG in college is outdated This model for RPG in college is outdated Students and graduates go uncountedStudents and graduates go uncounted Misleading & misguided judgments ariseMisleading & misguided judgments arise Institutional productivity is short-changedInstitutional productivity is short-changed It perpetuates myths about college It perpetuates myths about college

attendance attendance

FLAWED ASSUMPTIONS FLAWED ASSUMPTIONS UNDERLIE THE SIX-YEAR UNDERLIE THE SIX-YEAR GRADUATION RATEGRADUATION RATE

Times have changed--Times have changed--the majority of the the majority of the today’s college students today’s college students exhibit nontraditional exhibit nontraditional attendance patterns attendance patterns and characteristicsand characteristics

NCES Study, 2002NCES Study, 2002

Key Finding: Three-fourths of Key Finding: Three-fourths of today’s college students are today’s college students are nontraditional to some degreenontraditional to some degree

… …So, why does USDOE put so much So, why does USDOE put so much stock in the traditional student stock in the traditional student model of the 6Yr Graduation Rate?model of the 6Yr Graduation Rate?

NONTRADITIONAL NONTRADITIONAL ATTENDANCE PATTERNS ATTENDANCE PATTERNS

ABOUND AT A METROPOLITAN ABOUND AT A METROPOLITAN UNIVERSITY LIKE KSUUNIVERSITY LIKE KSU

MOST NEW COLLEGE MOST NEW COLLEGE STUDENTS ENTER IN STUDENTS ENTER IN

THE FALLTHE FALL

ONLY 60% ofNew Students

Each Year Start in the Fall

At KSU

MOST NEW COLLEGE MOST NEW COLLEGE STUDENTS ENROLLSTUDENTS ENROLL

AS FRESHMEN AS FRESHMEN

At KSUTransfers

Outnumber New Freshmen

& Many Stopouts Re-enroll After 2yrs

FRESHMAN TO FRESHMAN TO SENIOR CLASSESSENIOR CLASSES

SHRINK FROM ATTRITION SHRINK FROM ATTRITION

More Seniors than Freshmen at KSUDespite Low Graduation Rates

TRADITIONAL FRESHMENTRADITIONAL FRESHMEN FOLLOW TRADITIONAL FOLLOW TRADITIONAL ATTENDANCE PATTERNSATTENDANCE PATTERNS

Traditional-age Freshmenat KSU Quickly Adopt Non-Traditional Characteristics

Majority is Nontraditional-Majority is Nontraditional-Age by the Sophomore Age by the Sophomore Classification at KSUClassification at KSU

Traditional Age Trads Nontrads Traditional Age Trads Nontrads

By ClassificationBy Classification

Freshman <20 70% 30%Freshman <20 70% 30%

Sophomore <21 44% 56%Sophomore <21 44% 56%

Junior <22 36% 64%Junior <22 36% 64%

Senior <24 34% 66%Senior <24 34% 66%

Progression Rates Are Progression Rates Are Surprisingly Slow at KSUSurprisingly Slow at KSU

Retained First-Time Full-TimeRetained First-Time Full-Time FreshmenFreshmen Average 13 Hours/Sem Average 13 Hours/Sem

so…so… Only 1/3 are Sophomores after 1 Only 1/3 are Sophomores after 1

yryr Only 1/4 are Juniors after 2 YrsOnly 1/4 are Juniors after 2 Yrs Only 1/5 are Seniors after 3 YrsOnly 1/5 are Seniors after 3 Yrs

RPG Distraction at KSU—RPG Distraction at KSU—Attractive Employment Attractive Employment Opportunities in AtlantaOpportunities in Atlanta

Three Times Three Times More KSU More KSU Freshmen Freshmen Work >20 Work >20 Hours Per Hours Per Week Than Week Than Natl PeersNatl Peers

A CALL FOR A CALL FOR MORE INCLUSIVE MORE INCLUSIVE ANALYSIS THAN ANALYSIS THAN THE SIX-YEAR THE SIX-YEAR GRADUATION GRADUATION

RATERATECAN PROVIDECAN PROVIDE

DEGREE COMPLETION ANALYSIS DEGREE COMPLETION ANALYSIS YIELDS DIFFERENT AND YIELDS DIFFERENT AND

STRONGER RESULTS THAN SIX-STRONGER RESULTS THAN SIX-YEAR GRADUATION RATESYEAR GRADUATION RATES

6Yr Grad Rates track specific cohorts from the entrance of the pipeline, ignoring all other student groups

(input and process)

DEGREE COMPLETION ANALYSIS DEGREE COMPLETION ANALYSIS YIELDS DIFFERENT AND YIELDS DIFFERENT AND

STRONGER RESULTS THAN SIX-STRONGER RESULTS THAN SIX-YEAR GRADUATION RATESYEAR GRADUATION RATES

Degree CompletionDegree Completion

Analysis focuses on allAnalysis focuses on all

degrees coming out ofdegrees coming out of

the pipeline andthe pipeline and

disaggregating outputsdisaggregating outputs

DIFFERENT STORIESDIFFERENT STORIES

6Yr Rates: Only 400 graduated 6Yr Rates: Only 400 graduated from each cohort of 1,200 FT/FT from each cohort of 1,200 FT/FT Freshmen in recent yearsFreshmen in recent years

Deg Comp Anal: Five times as Deg Comp Anal: Five times as many, 2200, received bachelor’s many, 2200, received bachelor’s degrees from KSU in recent degrees from KSU in recent yearsyears

DIFFERENT STORIESDIFFERENT STORIES

6Yr Rate: No credit to KSU 6Yr Rate: No credit to KSU for degree productivity for degree productivity associated with associated with undergraduate transfers.undergraduate transfers.

Deg Comp Anal: Two-thirds Deg Comp Anal: Two-thirds of KSU’s bachelor degrees of KSU’s bachelor degrees went to students who went to students who transferred to KSU—average transferred to KSU—average age was 29 (nontraditional)age was 29 (nontraditional)

DIFFERENT STORIESDIFFERENT STORIES 6Yr Rate: Only graduates who 6Yr Rate: Only graduates who

started as full-time freshmen and started as full-time freshmen and who completed in 6 years count, who completed in 6 years count, implying that others dropped outimplying that others dropped out

Deg Comp Anal: Of the bachelor Deg Comp Anal: Of the bachelor graduates who started at KSU as graduates who started at KSU as freshmen, 20% took longer than 6 freshmen, 20% took longer than 6 years to complete their degrees, years to complete their degrees, and their average age was 31 and their average age was 31 (nontrads)(nontrads)

*** DIFFERENT STORIES ****** DIFFERENT STORIES ***

6Yr Rate: Less than one-third of 6Yr Rate: Less than one-third of KSU’s most traditional FT/FT KSU’s most traditional FT/FT Freshmen graduate in 6 years Freshmen graduate in 6 years

Deg Comp Anal: Almost one-half Deg Comp Anal: Almost one-half of KSU’s bachelor’s graduates of KSU’s bachelor’s graduates are traditional-age, finishing are traditional-age, finishing college(s) in six years or lesscollege(s) in six years or less

*** DIFFERENT STORIES ****** DIFFERENT STORIES *** 6Yr Rate: Graduation rates are 6Yr Rate: Graduation rates are

often lower for minority than often lower for minority than majority freshmenmajority freshmen

Deg Comp Anal: Representation Deg Comp Anal: Representation of minority and majority groups of minority and majority groups at graduation closely match their at graduation closely match their representation in the representation in the undergraduate student bodyundergraduate student body

Shouldn’t We Be More Shouldn’t We Be More Concerned About…Concerned About…

All degrees conferredAll degrees conferred that contribute to a more that contribute to a more educated workforce?educated workforce?

Instead of the few degrees Instead of the few degrees that a narrowly defined and that a narrowly defined and unrepresentative group of unrepresentative group of college students earns in 6 college students earns in 6 years? years?

Degree Completion Degree Completion AnalysisAnalysis

More InclusiveMore InclusiveMore InformativeMore InformativeMore AccurateMore AccurateMore PositiveMore PositiveMore MeaningfulMore Meaningful

Let’s Tell Our Full StoryLet’s Tell Our Full StoryStart a MovementStart a Movement

Conduct Conduct

aa

DegreeDegree

CompletionCompletion

AnalysisAnalysis

HUDDLE UP!HUDDLE UP!

What Would What Would Be a Useful Be a Useful

Replacement Replacement for the 6Yr for the 6Yr Graduation Graduation

Rate?Rate?

THANK YOU!THANK YOU!

QUESTIONS AND QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS ?COMMENTS ?

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