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RETAILING IN INDIA RETAILING IN INDIA RETAILING IN INDIA Presentation by Shahnas A Syama K S Sobymol Devasia Sabitha Z.B

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  • RETAILING IN INDIARETAILING IN INDIAPresentation by Shahnas ASyama K SSobymol DevasiaSabitha Z.B

  • RetailingAccording to Philip Kotler retailing includes all the activities involved in selling goods or Services directly to final consumers for personal , Non business use.Every sale of Goods and Services to final consumer Food products, apparel, movie tickets; services from hair cutting to e-ticketing.

  • A retailer or retail store is any business enterprise whose sale volume comes primarily from retailing.A retailer may be defined, as a dealer or trader who sells goods in small quantities.Any Organization Selling to final consumer is retailing , whether they areA ManufacturerA WholesalerA Retailer

  • It does not matter how they sell or serve ( By)PersonMailTelephoneVending Machine orInternetOrWhere these are soldA storeA streetConsumers House

  • Retailing may be understood as the final step in the distribution of merchandise, for consumption by the end consumers.Retailers attempt to satisfy consumer needs by having the right merchandise, at the right price, at the right place, when the consumer wants it.Retailers are the final business in a distribution channel that links manufacturers to consumersIndian retail industry is the second largest employer in the country with almost 12million retail stores in India.

  • Characteristics of retailingIt offers direct interaction Sale volume is comparatively large in quantitiesCustomer serviceSales promotions are offered at this point onlyDifferent formsLocation and layout are critical factorsMore employment opportunities

  • Retailers TypesDepartment storesSpecialty storesConvenience storeDiscount storeOff-price retailerSuper store

  • Functions of RetailingSortingBreaking BulkHolding stockCommunicationsAssist small suppliersCustomer service

  • INDIAN RETAIL-BRIEF OVERVIEWThe Indian retail sector is highly fragmented with more than 90 per cent of its business being carried out by traditional family run small stores. This provides immense opportunity for large scale retailers to set-up their operations a slew of organized retail formats like departmental stores, hypermarkets, supermarkets and specialty stores are swiftly replacing the traditional formats dramatically altering the retailing landscape in India.

  • India is the third-most attractive retail market for global retailers among the 30 largest emerging markets, according to US consulting group AT Kearneys report published in June 2010

  • RETAIL-MARKET SIZEThe total retail sales in India will grow from US$ 395.96 billion in 2011 to US$ 785.12 billion by 2015Indian retail sector accounts for 22 per cent of the country's gross domestic product (GDP) and contributes to 8 per cent of the total employment.

  • Weekly MarketsVillage FairsMelas

    Convenience StoresMom and Pop/KiranasPDS OutletsKhadi StoresCooperativesExclusive Brand OutletsHyper/Super MarketsDepartment StoresShopping MallsTraditional/Pervasive Reach Government SupportedHistoric/Rural ReachModern Formats/ InternationalEvolution of Indian retailSource of EntertainmentNeighborhood Stores/ConvenienceAvailability/ Low Costs / DistributionShopping Experience/Efficiency

  • REASONS FOR THE GROWTHRobust economic growthHigh disposable income with the end-consumerRapid construction of organized retail infrastructure are key factors behind the forecast growth. Expansion in middle and upper class consumer baseGrowth potential in Indias tier-II and tier-III cities as well. The greater availability of personal credit and a growing vehicle population providing improved mobility also contribute to a trend towards annual retail sales growth of 12.2 per cent.

  • Indian Retail Buoyed by high GDP growthProjections of 8% sustainable real GDP growth rate till 2020 promise high growth potential for Indian RetailReal Growth RateSource :Central Statistical Organization (CS0)

  • India Experiencing Rapid Economic Growth 9.4% growth rate makes India the second fastest growing economy in the worldGDP (US$ bn) Real Growth Rate

    GDP no's

    26300.107

    9160.094

    9790.067

    10680.037

    23740.028

    43670.023

    132450.02

    GDP

    Growth rate

    Per Capita Income1

    2232003

    2460.1031390135

    2700.0975609756

    3020.1185185185

    3480.1523178808

    in bn

    Growth rate

    Forex Growth

    27.67906976742001-02

    38.5767441860.2824933687

    57.81395348840.3327433628

    72.13953488370.1985815603

    77.25581395350.0662251656

    103.86046511630.2561576355

    Foreign Exchange Reserves

    Growth Rate %

    Services Growth

    0.130.14

    0.0630.211

    0.0770.374

    0.2150.411

    0.5571.072

    2005-06

    2006-07

    Womens employment

    0.151

    0.152

    0.155

    0.159

    0.166

    Women's Employment-Urban

    Credit Cards

    10.12.04

    14.12.97

    17.33.9

    224.7

    (in Mn)

    Transaction (In bn)

    Sheet1

    GDPGrowth ratePrivate ConsumptionRetailRetail1313722.15590.85

    China2,63010.70%70.00%418.847303.303

    India9169.40%55.00%503.80412.20302.28201.52

    Russia9796.70%40.00%136.03198.952325

    Brazil1,0683.70%65.30%166.25219.894675

    UK2,3742.80%58.10%35.40%

    Japan4,3672.30%48.90%161.7

    US13,2452.00%65.00%

    Working Age Group

    India

    China

    Brazil607.1368839855

    Russia

    US795.0293336552

    UK

    Japan

    High Income Opportunities

    Sector wise Employment

    Self Employment

    Working Women(in bn)

    2001-022002-032003-042004-052005-062006-07

    Foreign Exchange Reserves27.738.657.872.177.3103.9

    28%33%20%7%26%

    Service SectorGrowth Rate %2005-062006-072005-062006-07

    Tourist Arrivals13%14%3.91 Mn4.43 Mn

    Passenger Cars Sales6.30%21.10%

    Commercial Vehicle Sales7.70%37.40%

    Domestic Air Passengers21.50%41.10%

    New Cell Phone Connections55.70%107.20%

    India

    Percentage urban (%)

    1995-2015

    UrbanRural

    199526.673.4

    200027.772.3

    200528.771.3

    201030.369.7

    201532.267.8

    Women's Employment-Urban

    1983-8415.10%

    1987-8815.20%

    1993-9415.50%

    1999-0015.90%

    2005-0616.60%400804.6604651163

    Credit Cards(in Mn)Transaction (In bn)7.44.543255814

    200410.12.04

    2005142.97

    2006173.9

    2007224.7

    Per Capita Income Growth

    in bnGrowth rate

    200322320032004200520062007

    200424610%223246270302348

    200527010%10%10%12%15%

    200630212%

    200734815%

    Sheet1

    1995

    Working Population

    0

    0

    2000

    Share of Wallet

    GDP

    Sheet2

    0.49495064360.51306690310.5284556653

    0.58816552820.60294026250.5954064559

    0.54009773540.54961252780.5493172989

    0.64194035340.61483915110.5984832943

    0.55315395240.54722569120.536677882

    0.51282549210.50654396020.5212929082

    2005

    2010

    2015

    Sheet3

    % of PFCE

    Category2002-032003-042004-052005-062006-07

    Food, Beverages & Groceries43%42%40%39%39%

    Personal Care & Other Goods5%5%5%6%6%

    Clothing & Footwear5%5%5%5%5%

    Furniture, Furnishing, Appliances etc,3%3%4%4%4%

    Recreation & Cultural Services2%2%2%2%2%

    Education2%2%2%2%2%

    Rent, Fuel & Power13%13%12%12%11%

    Medical Care & Health Services6%6%6%7%7%

    Transport14%15%15%17%18%

    Telecommunication1%2%2%2%2%

    Other Misc Services5%6%7%6%5%

    100%100%100%100%100%

    GDP476

    Share of PFCE58.10%

    PFCE277

    Food, Beverages & Groceries108

    Personal Care & Other Goods15

    Clothing & Footwear13

    Furniture, Furnishing, Appliances etc,10

    Recreation & Cultural Services5

    Education5

    Rent, Fuel & Power32

    Medical Care & Health Services19

    Transport50

    Telecommunication6

    Other Misc Services14

    277

    Sheet3

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    2002-03

    Sheet4

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    2006-07

    -241046125455350060

    25-29940674899045078

    30-34829784319239786

    35-39734003819935201

    40-44651963391931277

    45-49570402963927400

    50-54487772522623550

    55-5935403

    YearAgeBoth sexes combinedMaleFemale

    20000-41272926636160931

    9-May1237156474958967

    14-Oct1150115999255019

    15-191058215515550666

    20-24955534981245741

    25-29845544413540419

    30-34749563919235764

    35-39667853497431811

    40-44587933080527988

    45-49509062660624300

    50-54377171934018377

    55-59310491572415324

    60-64262081294413264

    65-6919976975410223

    70-741367666906986

    75-79815139444208

    80-84409219542138

    85-891484710774

    90-94410200209

    95-99753937

    100+1165

    727398

    20050-41268946613660758

    9-May1244946511859376

    14-Oct1227556426758488

    15-191141265955454572

    20-241046125455350060

    25-29940674899045078

    30-34829784319239786

    35-39734003819935201

    40-44651963391931277

    45-49570402963927400

    50-54487772522623550

    55-59354031791317490

    60-64282061402014186

    65-69226891092111768

    70-741608776008487

    75-79985846635195

    80-84504223772665

    85-8920659781087

    90-94579283296

    95-991186157

    100+1697

    20100-41265566590960647

    9-May1245526507659476

    14-Oct1237016471158990

    15-191219866387258114

    20-241130715901054061

    25-291032345376849466

    30-34924594800844451

    35-39813394213239206

    40-44717313707834653

    45-49633663268730679

    50-54548242818426640

    55-59460112347922532

    60-64324141609616318

    65-69246741195412720

    70-741853586329903

    75-791184053986442

    80-84625928783381

    85-89261312181395

    90-94824397427

    95-991688682

    100+251411

    20150-41248766498359893

    9-May1246246501059614

    14-Oct1238866472359163

    15-191230506436558686

    20-241210706338157689

    25-291118535829953553

    30-341017485285148897

    35-39908704697943891

    40-44797014103438667

    45-49699343586834065

    50-54611563123029925

    55-59520002638725613

    60-64424332126421169

    65-69286551387814777

    70-7420420958010840

    75-791389462397655

    80-84769934024297

    85-89332315051817

    90-941066502564

    95-99242121121

    100+351916

    India

    Working Population Break Up

    YearAgeBothsexescombinedMaleFemaleIndiaChinaBrazilRussiaUSUK

    20000-41272926636160931127292127292200549%59%54%64%55%51%

    5-91237156474958967123715123715201051%60%55%61%55%51%

    10-141151159992551911511115011201553%60%55%60%54%52%

    15-191058215515550666105821105821

    20-249555349812457419555395553

    25-298455444135404198455484554

    30-347495639192357647495674956

    35-396678534974318116678566785

    40-445879330805279885879358793

    45-495090626606243005090650906

    50-543771719340183773771737717

    55-5931491572415324314931049

    60-642620812944132642620826208

    65-69199769754102231997619976

    70-7413676669069861367613676

    75-7981513944420881518151

    80-84492195421384924092

    85-89148471077414841484

    90-94410200209410200410

    95-99753937753975

    100+116511611

    1046235

    50031348%

    20050-41268946613660758126894126894

    9-May1244946511859376124494124494

    14-Oct1227556426758488122755122755

    15-191141265955454572114126114126

    20-24104612545535060104612104612

    25-299467489904578946794067

    30-348297843192397868297882978

    35-397340038199352017340073400

    40-446519633919312776519665196

    45-4957402963927400574057040

    50-544877725226235504877748777

    55-593540317913174903540335403

    60-64282061420141862820628206

    65-692268910921117682268922689

    70-74168776008487168716087

    75-7998584663519598589858

    80-84542237726655425042

    85-892659781872652065

    90-94579283296579283579

    95-99118615711861118

    100+169716916

    1134402

    56147349%

    20100-41265566590960647126556126556

    9-May124552657659476124552124552

    14-Oct1237016471158990123701123701

    15-191219866387258114121986121986

    20-24113715910546111371113071

    25-291032345376849466103234103234

    30-3492459488444519245992459

    35-398133942132392068133981339

    40-44717313778346537173171731

    45-496336632687306796336663366

    50-545482428184266405482454824

    55-5946112347922532461146011

    60-64324141696163183241432414

    65-692467411954127202467424674

    70-7418535863299031853518535

    75-7911840539864421184011840

    80-8462592878338162596259

    85-8926131218139526132613

    90-94824397427824397824

    95-99168868216886168

    100+251411251425

    1220182

    62603551%

    20150-41248766498359893124876124876

    9-May124624651059614124624124624

    14-Oct1238866472359163123886123886

    15-1912350643655868612350123050

    20-2412170633815768912170121070

    25-291118535829953553111853111853

    30-341017485285148897101748101748

    35-399087046979438919087090870

    40-44797014134386677970179701

    45-49699343586834656993469934

    50-546115631230299256115661156

    55-59520263872561352052000

    60-644243321264211694243342433

    65-692865513878147772865528655

    70-74204209580108402042020420

    75-7913894623976551389413894

    80-8476993402429776997699

    85-8933231505181733233323

    90-941665025641661066

    95-99242121121242121242

    100+351916351935

    1302535

    68833253%

    China

    YearAgeBothsexescombinedMaleFemale

    20050-48528745859394288528785287

    9-May9550650900446069550695506

    14-Oct1029795432848651102979102979

    15-19117961330556791179110079

    20-241003745247547899100374100374

    25-299573049205465259573095730

    30-341201176163058487120117120117

    35-3912580642316084912580125080

    40-4410347528565019210347103047

    45-498177242132396408177281772

    50-548284842212406368284882848

    55-595920530455287505920559205

    60-64435612246321984356143561

    65-6937431886918175374337043

    70-742921414333148812921429214

    75-7918803873610671880318803

    80-84105542485807105510055

    85-89448151425344484048

    90-941873497381871087

    95-991954914619549195

    100+1941519419

    1306049

    76817359%

    20100-4855456803932685585005

    9-May8482945614392148482984829

    14-Oct9525650747445099525695256

    15-191026445412048524102644102644

    20-241163306089755433116330116330

    25-299951851930475889951899518

    30-349483848639462009483894838

    35-3911937609235811511937119037

    40-441236576328460374123657123657

    45-491014385180549633101438101438

    50-547997940993389877997979979

    55-5980844049739587808480084

    60-645595528452275045595555955

    65-69395832031195523958339583

    70-743147715557159203147731477

    75-792240510512118932240522405

    80-8412240533869031224012240

    85-895248245320352485248

    90-94163456017416341634

    95-993169322331693316

    100+3993039939

    1351512

    81488160%

    20150-48777347126406478777387773

    9-May8458745455391328458784587

    14-Oct8463345495391398463384633

    15-199496650566443999496694966

    20-2410261537514831010261102061

    25-291154696035255118115469115469

    30-349867851397472819867898678

    35-3994104810345907941094010

    40-44117785609757688117785117785

    45-491218996214159757121899121899

    50-549940550520488859940599405

    55-59774753942638507747577475

    60-647595837967379917595875958

    65-695116125530256315116151161

    70-743398416689172953398433984

    75-792449711576129212449724497

    80-8414927656383651492714927

    85-8965902631395965906590

    90-942189771141821892189

    95-99489151338489151489

    100+651748651765

    1388601

    82678260%

    Brazil

    YearAgeBothsexescombinedMaleFemale

    20050-4184392048839184318043

    9-May17343883285111734317343

    14-Oct16609844381661660916609

    15-1917394881885771739417394

    20-241795495788971795417954

    25-291626287681861626216262

    30-341433073872921433014330

    35-3913351653168201335113351

    40-4412734619465401273412734

    45-4910677515455231067710677

    50-5487954213458287958795

    55-5968043224358068046804

    60-64575236727085755075

    65-6941481893225541484148

    70-7429481308163929482948

    75-792148923122521482148

    80-84124751972812471247

    85-89630254376630254630

    90-942519915125199251

    95-99722844722872

    100+166916616

    186831

    10090754%

    20100-41809186881418018000

    9-May17958915588021795817958

    14-Oct17306881184951730617306

    15-1916521838481361652116521

    20-2417216869185251721617216

    25-2917741890188401774117741

    30-34165079248126165016050

    35-3914118689172271411814118

    40-4413105636767381310513105

    45-4912422599364291242212422

    50-5410323493453891032310323

    55-5983883966442283888388

    60-6463602962339863606360

    65-6946092102250746094609

    70-74360215942836023602

    75-792392120137323922392

    80-84158565093515851585

    85-89808320488808320808

    90-94343131211343131343

    95-99108416710841108

    100+271116271127

    198982

    10936355%

    20150-417437890085361743717437

    9-May17924914287821792417924

    14-Oct17923913587881792317923

    15-1917226875784691722617226

    20-241636982778931636916369

    25-29173385578476173317033

    30-3417535875187831753517535

    35-391583677758611583615836

    40-4413880673271481388013880

    45-4912810617666331281012810

    50-54124057546286124012040

    55-5998804663521698809880

    60-6478773663421578777877

    65-6958122648316458125812

    70-74438178522524384038

    75-7929601257170429602960

    80-84179272716517921792

    85-891444056391441044

    90-94444166279444166444

    95-99148549514854148

    100+401525401540

    210048

    11538355%

    Russia

    YearAgeBothsexescombinedMaleFemale

    20050-4765362934367657065

    9-May65073333317365076507

    14-Oct81734176399681738173

    15-1912926152594112921292

    20-2412438628161571243812438

    25-29111455025512111411014

    30-3410300512951711030010300

    35-3995054691481495059505

    40-4411421552558971142111421

    45-49123056636367123012030

    50-5410621483857831062110621

    55-5981463571457581468146

    60-6447991936286347994799

    65-6975922844474875927592

    70-7448101651315948104810

    75-7944341297313644344434

    80-841998420157819981998

    85-89682126556682126682

    90-942804423628044280

    95-994153641541

    100+303303

    133151

    8547564%

    20100-474663835363174667466

    9-May748361734307487048

    14-Oct64993327317264996499

    15-19817141694281718171

    20-2412256855941122512025

    25-2912288614561431228812288

    30-3410824533954851082410824

    35-39106149325129106110061

    40-4491974443475491979197

    45-4910896511657801089610896

    50-541126358761761126311263

    55-5997194193552697199719

    60-6472412950429072417241

    65-69494149625984944094

    70-746862194686866086

    75-793490139245134903490

    80-84273768824927372737

    85-89946168778946168946

    90-942123318021233212

    95-995174451751

    100+414414

    140318

    8627361%

    20150-471813689349271817181

    9-May74473822362574477447

    14-Oct741361234297417041

    15-1965073326318165076507

    20-248155414141481558155

    25-2911875595459211187511875

    30-3412405944697124012040

    35-3910540511154291054010540

    40-449718465856097189718

    45-4987784115466387788778

    50-5410223460756161022310223

    55-5910352443359191035210352

    60-6486933490520386938693

    65-6962352311392362356235

    70-743321177224433213321

    75-7944861288319844864486

    80-842204562164122042204

    85-89132728214513271327

    90-943114526531145311

    95-994153641541

    100+515515

    136480

    8168160%

    US

    YearAgeBothsexescombinedMaleFemale

    20050-4205941055310412059420594

    9-May202541037798772025420254

    14-Oct215691146105232156921569

    15-192171811129105892171821718

    20-2421411074710294214121041

    25-29201311021599162013120131

    30-34203511026610842035120351

    35-392118010606105742118021180

    40-442298211426115562298222982

    45-492268611174115122268622686

    50-54202499924103252024920249

    55-5917241835088921724117241

    60-64139962446855139913099

    65-6910157473754201015710157

    70-7485243832469285248524

    75-7974443167427874447444

    80-8456022174342856025602

    85-893199182211631993199

    90-94135336498913531353

    95-993947731739477394

    100+781068781078

    299846

    16586155%

    20100-42145810996104622145821458

    9-May2090310712101912090320903

    14-Oct2091610716102002091620916

    15-192251611542109742251622516

    20-24226211157011512262122621

    25-292192311140107822192321923

    30-342081410517102972081420814

    35-392062610365102612062620626

    40-442120110574106272120121201

    45-492283111309115232283122831

    50-542240110980114212240122401

    55-59197909621101691979019790

    60-6416544791286331654416544

    65-6912252572365291225212252

    70-74913741335491379137

    75-797194389410571947194

    80-8456562235342056565656

    85-8936401257238336403640

    90-941659465119416591659

    95-99508102405508102508

    100+101138810113101

    314691

    17220755%

    20150-42199511271107242199521995

    9-May2174311142106012174321743

    14-Oct215161126104902151621516

    15-192179611177106192179621796

    20-242335211950114022335223352

    25-292343311930115032343323433

    30-342254411412111312254422544

    35-3921601060310457216021060

    40-442064310334103092064320643

    45-4921731047110602217321073

    50-542255511119114362255522555

    55-592191410659112552191421914

    60-64193391459888193319033

    65-6915528728882401552815528

    70-741187534653118711087

    75-7977823371441177827782

    80-8455342214332055345534

    85-8937341319241437343734

    90-941924553137119241924

    95-99635134501635134635

    100+1321811413218132

    329013

    17657454%

    UK

    YearAgeBothsexescombinedMaleFemale

    20050-434461765168134463446

    9-May35491819173035493549

    14-Oct38311967186438313831

    15-193970236193539703970

    20-2438711965190638713871

    25-2937171858185837173717

    30-34416627229441664166

    35-3946392297234246394639

    40-4446342293234146344634

    45-494271992235427427

    50-5436761819185736763676

    55-5939191931198839193919

    60-6431161524159231163116

    65-6927161306141127162716

    70-742332182125023322332

    75-791951838111219511951

    80-84147756391414771477

    85-89759242517759759

    90-9434487257344344

    95-999217759292

    100+132111313

    56645

    2904951%

    20100-436241857176736243624

    9-May34481766168234483448

    14-Oct35761836174135763576

    15-193920216190439203920

    20-24411521072741154115

    25-294152331982415415

    30-3438151904191138153815

    35-394203290211342034203

    40-4446292292233746294629

    45-4946012273232846014601

    50-543972196021239723972

    55-5935871765182235873587

    60-6437721840193237723772

    65-6929321412152129322932

    70-7424531148130424532453

    75-79196287019219621962

    80-84146758588114671467

    85-89926315612926926

    90-9436799268367367

    95-991142392114114

    100+182161818

    57916

    2933751%

    20150-436841887179736843684

    9-May36271858176936273627

    14-Oct34761783169234763476

    15-1936661885178136663666

    20-244662881977466466

    25-294260217528442604260

    30-34411427923541144114

    35-3938541924193138543854

    40-444197287211041974197

    45-4945992274232545994599

    50-5445442240230445444544

    55-5938831906197738833883

    60-6434611687177434613461

    65-6935631712185135633563

    70-7426641250141326642664

    75-792839341149283283

    80-84149661887814961496

    85-89940336604940940

    90-94462133328462462

    95-9912727100127127

    100+243202424

    57390

    2991752%

    Purnendu Kumar:

  • Led by Growth in Services Sector% Increase in growth over the previous year Services sector adding to GDP in a significant manner

    GDP no's

    1361.44186046510.107

    476.74418604650.092

    438.9767441860.067

    435.90697674420.037

    1199.25581395350.028

    2236.32558139540.023

    6986.79069767440.02

    GDP

    Growth rate

    Per Capita Income1

    223

    246

    270

    302

    348

    in bn

    Forex Growth

    27.6790697674

    38.576744186

    57.8139534884

    72.1395348837

    77.2558139535

    103.8604651163

    Foreign Exchange Reserves

    Services Growth

    0.130.14

    0.0630.211

    0.0770.374

    0.2150.411

    0.5571.072

    2005-06

    2006-07

    55%

    21%

    7%

    6%

    21%

    37%

    41%

    107%

    Womens employment

    0.151

    0.152

    0.155

    0.159

    0.166

    Women's Employment-Urban

    Credit Cards

    10.12.04

    14.12.97

    17.33.9

    224.7

    (in Mn)

    Transaction (In bn)

    Sheet1

    GDPGrowth ratePrivate ConsumptionRetailRetail1313722.15590.85

    China1,36110.70%70.00%418.847303.303

    India4779.20%55.00%262.21214.53157.33104.88

    Russia4396.70%40.00%70.80198.952325

    Brazil4363.70%65.30%86.53219.894675

    UK1,1992.80%58.10%35.40%

    Japan2,2362.30%48.90%161.7

    US6,9872.00%65.00%

    Working Age Group

    India

    China

    Brazil607.1368839855

    Russia

    US795.0293336552

    UK

    Japan

    High Income Opportunities

    Sector wise Employment

    Self Employment

    Working Women(in bn)

    2001-022002-032003-042004-052005-062006-07

    Foreign Exchange Reserves27.738.657.872.177.3103.9

    28%33%20%7%26%

    Service SectorGrowth Rate %2005-062006-072005-062006-07

    Tourist Arrivals13%14%3.91 Mn4.43 Mn

    Passenger Cars Sales6.30%21.10%

    Commercial Vehicle Sales7.70%37.40%

    Domestic Air Passengers21.50%41.10%

    New Cell Phone Connections55.70%107.20%

    India

    Percentage urban (%)

    1995-2015

    UrbanRural

    199526.673.4

    200027.772.3

    200528.771.3

    201030.369.7

    201532.267.8

    Women's Employment-Urban

    1983-8415.10%

    1987-8815.20%

    1993-9415.50%

    1999-0015.90%

    2005-0616.60%400804.6604651163

    Credit Cards(in Mn)Transaction (In bn)7.44.543255814

    200410.12.04

    2005142.97

    2006173.9

    2007224.7

    Per Capita Income Growth

    in bnGrowth rate

    2002-0322320032004200520062007

    2003-0424610%223246270302348

    2004-0527010%10%10%12%15%

    2005-0630212%

    2006-0734815%

    Sheet1

    0

    0

    1995

    Working Population

    0

    0

    2000

    Share of Wallet

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    GDP

    Sheet2

    0.49495064360.51306690310.5284556653

    0.58816552820.60294026250.5954064559

    0.54009773540.54961252780.5493172989

    0.64194035340.61483915110.5984832943

    0.55315395240.54722569120.536677882

    0.51282549210.50654396020.5212929082

    2005

    2010

    2015

    Sheet3

    % of PFCE

    Category2002-032003-042004-052005-062006-07

    Food, Beverages & Groceries43%42%40%39%39%

    Personal Care & Other Goods5%5%5%6%6%

    Clothing & Footwear5%5%5%5%5%

    Furniture, Furnishing, Appliances etc,3%3%4%4%4%

    Recreation & Cultural Services2%2%2%2%2%

    Education2%2%2%2%2%

    Rent, Fuel & Power13%13%12%12%11%

    Medical Care & Health Services6%6%6%7%7%

    Transport14%15%15%17%18%

    Telecommunication1%2%2%2%2%

    Other Misc Services5%6%7%6%5%

    100%100%100%100%100%

    GDP476

    Share of PFCE58.10%

    PFCE277

    Food, Beverages & Groceries108

    Personal Care & Other Goods15

    Clothing & Footwear13

    Furniture, Furnishing, Appliances etc,10

    Recreation & Cultural Services5

    Education5

    Rent, Fuel & Power32

    Medical Care & Health Services19

    Transport50

    Telecommunication6

    Other Misc Services14

    277

    Sheet3

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    2002-03

    Sheet4

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    2006-07

    -241046125455350060

    25-29940674899045078

    30-34829784319239786

    35-39734003819935201

    40-44651963391931277

    45-49570402963927400

    50-54487772522623550

    55-5935403

    YearAgeBoth sexes combinedMaleFemale

    20000-41272926636160931

    9-May1237156474958967

    14-Oct1150115999255019

    15-191058215515550666

    20-24955534981245741

    25-29845544413540419

    30-34749563919235764

    35-39667853497431811

    40-44587933080527988

    45-49509062660624300

    50-54377171934018377

    55-59310491572415324

    60-64262081294413264

    65-6919976975410223

    70-741367666906986

    75-79815139444208

    80-84409219542138

    85-891484710774

    90-94410200209

    95-99753937

    100+1165

    727398

    20050-41268946613660758

    9-May1244946511859376

    14-Oct1227556426758488

    15-191141265955454572

    20-241046125455350060

    25-29940674899045078

    30-34829784319239786

    35-39734003819935201

    40-44651963391931277

    45-49570402963927400

    50-54487772522623550

    55-59354031791317490

    60-64282061402014186

    65-69226891092111768

    70-741608776008487

    75-79985846635195

    80-84504223772665

    85-8920659781087

    90-94579283296

    95-991186157

    100+1697

    20100-41265566590960647

    9-May1245526507659476

    14-Oct1237016471158990

    15-191219866387258114

    20-241130715901054061

    25-291032345376849466

    30-34924594800844451

    35-39813394213239206

    40-44717313707834653

    45-49633663268730679

    50-54548242818426640

    55-59460112347922532

    60-64324141609616318

    65-69246741195412720

    70-741853586329903

    75-791184053986442

    80-84625928783381

    85-89261312181395

    90-94824397427

    95-991688682

    100+251411

    20150-41248766498359893

    9-May1246246501059614

    14-Oct1238866472359163

    15-191230506436558686

    20-241210706338157689

    25-291118535829953553

    30-341017485285148897

    35-39908704697943891

    40-44797014103438667

    45-49699343586834065

    50-54611563123029925

    55-59520002638725613

    60-64424332126421169

    65-69286551387814777

    70-7420420958010840

    75-791389462397655

    80-84769934024297

    85-89332315051817

    90-941066502564

    95-99242121121

    100+351916

    India

    Working Population Break Up

    YearAgeBothsexescombinedMaleFemaleIndiaChinaBrazilRussiaUSUK

    20000-41272926636160931127292127292200549%59%54%64%55%51%

    5-91237156474958967123715123715201051%60%55%61%55%51%

    10-141151159992551911511115011201553%60%55%60%54%52%

    15-191058215515550666105821105821

    20-249555349812457419555395553

    25-298455444135404198455484554

    30-347495639192357647495674956

    35-396678534974318116678566785

    40-445879330805279885879358793

    45-495090626606243005090650906

    50-543771719340183773771737717

    55-5931491572415324314931049

    60-642620812944132642620826208

    65-69199769754102231997619976

    70-7413676669069861367613676

    75-7981513944420881518151

    80-84492195421384924092

    85-89148471077414841484

    90-94410200209410200410

    95-99753937753975

    100+116511611

    1046235

    50031348%

    20050-41268946613660758126894126894

    9-May1244946511859376124494124494

    14-Oct1227556426758488122755122755

    15-191141265955454572114126114126

    20-24104612545535060104612104612

    25-299467489904578946794067

    30-348297843192397868297882978

    35-397340038199352017340073400

    40-446519633919312776519665196

    45-4957402963927400574057040

    50-544877725226235504877748777

    55-593540317913174903540335403

    60-64282061420141862820628206

    65-692268910921117682268922689

    70-74168776008487168716087

    75-7998584663519598589858

    80-84542237726655425042

    85-892659781872652065

    90-94579283296579283579

    95-99118615711861118

    100+169716916

    1134402

    56147349%

    20100-41265566590960647126556126556

    9-May124552657659476124552124552

    14-Oct1237016471158990123701123701

    15-191219866387258114121986121986

    20-24113715910546111371113071

    25-291032345376849466103234103234

    30-3492459488444519245992459

    35-398133942132392068133981339

    40-44717313778346537173171731

    45-496336632687306796336663366

    50-545482428184266405482454824

    55-5946112347922532461146011

    60-64324141696163183241432414

    65-692467411954127202467424674

    70-7418535863299031853518535

    75-7911840539864421184011840

    80-8462592878338162596259

    85-8926131218139526132613

    90-94824397427824397824

    95-99168868216886168

    100+251411251425

    1220182

    62603551%

    20150-41248766498359893124876124876

    9-May124624651059614124624124624

    14-Oct1238866472359163123886123886

    15-1912350643655868612350123050

    20-2412170633815768912170121070

    25-291118535829953553111853111853

    30-341017485285148897101748101748

    35-399087046979438919087090870

    40-44797014134386677970179701

    45-49699343586834656993469934

    50-546115631230299256115661156

    55-59520263872561352052000

    60-644243321264211694243342433

    65-692865513878147772865528655

    70-74204209580108402042020420

    75-7913894623976551389413894

    80-8476993402429776997699

    85-8933231505181733233323

    90-941665025641661066

    95-99242121121242121242

    100+351916351935

    1302535

    68833253%

    China

    YearAgeBothsexescombinedMaleFemale

    20050-48528745859394288528785287

    9-May9550650900446069550695506

    14-Oct1029795432848651102979102979

    15-19117961330556791179110079

    20-241003745247547899100374100374

    25-299573049205465259573095730

    30-341201176163058487120117120117

    35-3912580642316084912580125080

    40-4410347528565019210347103047

    45-498177242132396408177281772

    50-548284842212406368284882848

    55-595920530455287505920559205

    60-64435612246321984356143561

    65-6937431886918175374337043

    70-742921414333148812921429214

    75-7918803873610671880318803

    80-84105542485807105510055

    85-89448151425344484048

    90-941873497381871087

    95-991954914619549195

    100+1941519419

    1306049

    76817359%

    20100-4855456803932685585005

    9-May8482945614392148482984829

    14-Oct9525650747445099525695256

    15-191026445412048524102644102644

    20-241163306089755433116330116330

    25-299951851930475889951899518

    30-349483848639462009483894838

    35-3911937609235811511937119037

    40-441236576328460374123657123657

    45-491014385180549633101438101438

    50-547997940993389877997979979

    55-5980844049739587808480084

    60-645595528452275045595555955

    65-69395832031195523958339583

    70-743147715557159203147731477

    75-792240510512118932240522405

    80-8412240533869031224012240

    85-895248245320352485248

    90-94163456017416341634

    95-993169322331693316

    100+3993039939

    1351512

    81488160%

    20150-48777347126406478777387773

    9-May8458745455391328458784587

    14-Oct8463345495391398463384633

    15-199496650566443999496694966

    20-2410261537514831010261102061

    25-291154696035255118115469115469

    30-349867851397472819867898678

    35-3994104810345907941094010

    40-44117785609757688117785117785

    45-491218996214159757121899121899

    50-549940550520488859940599405

    55-59774753942638507747577475

    60-647595837967379917595875958

    65-695116125530256315116151161

    70-743398416689172953398433984

    75-792449711576129212449724497

    80-8414927656383651492714927

    85-8965902631395965906590

    90-942189771141821892189

    95-99489151338489151489

    100+651748651765

    1388601

    82678260%

    Brazil

    YearAgeBothsexescombinedMaleFemale

    20050-4184392048839184318043

    9-May17343883285111734317343

    14-Oct16609844381661660916609

    15-1917394881885771739417394

    20-241795495788971795417954

    25-291626287681861626216262

    30-341433073872921433014330

    35-3913351653168201335113351

    40-4412734619465401273412734

    45-4910677515455231067710677

    50-5487954213458287958795

    55-5968043224358068046804

    60-64575236727085755075

    65-6941481893225541484148

    70-7429481308163929482948

    75-792148923122521482148

    80-84124751972812471247

    85-89630254376630254630

    90-942519915125199251

    95-99722844722872

    100+166916616

    186831

    10090754%

    20100-41809186881418018000

    9-May17958915588021795817958

    14-Oct17306881184951730617306

    15-1916521838481361652116521

    20-2417216869185251721617216

    25-2917741890188401774117741

    30-34165079248126165016050

    35-3914118689172271411814118

    40-4413105636767381310513105

    45-4912422599364291242212422

    50-5410323493453891032310323

    55-5983883966442283888388

    60-6463602962339863606360

    65-6946092102250746094609

    70-74360215942836023602

    75-792392120137323922392

    80-84158565093515851585

    85-89808320488808320808

    90-94343131211343131343

    95-99108416710841108

    100+271116271127

    198982

    10936355%

    20150-417437890085361743717437

    9-May17924914287821792417924

    14-Oct17923913587881792317923

    15-1917226875784691722617226

    20-241636982778931636916369

    25-29173385578476173317033

    30-3417535875187831753517535

    35-391583677758611583615836

    40-4413880673271481388013880

    45-4912810617666331281012810

    50-54124057546286124012040

    55-5998804663521698809880

    60-6478773663421578777877

    65-6958122648316458125812

    70-74438178522524384038

    75-7929601257170429602960

    80-84179272716517921792

    85-891444056391441044

    90-94444166279444166444

    95-99148549514854148

    100+401525401540

    210048

    11538355%

    Russia

    YearAgeBothsexescombinedMaleFemale

    20050-4765362934367657065

    9-May65073333317365076507

    14-Oct81734176399681738173

    15-1912926152594112921292

    20-2412438628161571243812438

    25-29111455025512111411014

    30-3410300512951711030010300

    35-3995054691481495059505

    40-4411421552558971142111421

    45-49123056636367123012030

    50-5410621483857831062110621

    55-5981463571457581468146

    60-6447991936286347994799

    65-6975922844474875927592

    70-7448101651315948104810

    75-7944341297313644344434

    80-841998420157819981998

    85-89682126556682126682

    90-942804423628044280

    95-994153641541

    100+303303

    133151

    8547564%

    20100-474663835363174667466

    9-May748361734307487048

    14-Oct64993327317264996499

    15-19817141694281718171

    20-2412256855941122512025

    25-2912288614561431228812288

    30-3410824533954851082410824

    35-39106149325129106110061

    40-4491974443475491979197

    45-4910896511657801089610896

    50-541126358761761126311263

    55-5997194193552697199719

    60-6472412950429072417241

    65-69494149625984944094

    70-746862194686866086

    75-793490139245134903490

    80-84273768824927372737

    85-89946168778946168946

    90-942123318021233212

    95-995174451751

    100+414414

    140318

    8627361%

    20150-471813689349271817181

    9-May74473822362574477447

    14-Oct741361234297417041

    15-1965073326318165076507

    20-248155414141481558155

    25-2911875595459211187511875

    30-3412405944697124012040

    35-3910540511154291054010540

    40-449718465856097189718

    45-4987784115466387788778

    50-5410223460756161022310223

    55-5910352443359191035210352

    60-6486933490520386938693

    65-6962352311392362356235

    70-743321177224433213321

    75-7944861288319844864486

    80-842204562164122042204

    85-89132728214513271327

    90-943114526531145311

    95-994153641541

    100+515515

    136480

    8168160%

    US

    YearAgeBothsexescombinedMaleFemale

    20050-4205941055310412059420594

    9-May202541037798772025420254

    14-Oct215691146105232156921569

    15-192171811129105892171821718

    20-2421411074710294214121041

    25-29201311021599162013120131

    30-34203511026610842035120351

    35-392118010606105742118021180

    40-442298211426115562298222982

    45-492268611174115122268622686

    50-54202499924103252024920249

    55-5917241835088921724117241

    60-64139962446855139913099

    65-6910157473754201015710157

    70-7485243832469285248524

    75-7974443167427874447444

    80-8456022174342856025602

    85-893199182211631993199

    90-94135336498913531353

    95-993947731739477394

    100+781068781078

    299846

    16586155%

    20100-42145810996104622145821458

    9-May2090310712101912090320903

    14-Oct2091610716102002091620916

    15-192251611542109742251622516

    20-24226211157011512262122621

    25-292192311140107822192321923

    30-342081410517102972081420814

    35-392062610365102612062620626

    40-442120110574106272120121201

    45-492283111309115232283122831

    50-542240110980114212240122401

    55-59197909621101691979019790

    60-6416544791286331654416544

    65-6912252572365291225212252

    70-74913741335491379137

    75-797194389410571947194

    80-8456562235342056565656

    85-8936401257238336403640

    90-941659465119416591659

    95-99508102405508102508

    100+101138810113101

    314691

    17220755%

    20150-42199511271107242199521995

    9-May2174311142106012174321743

    14-Oct215161126104902151621516

    15-192179611177106192179621796

    20-242335211950114022335223352

    25-292343311930115032343323433

    30-342254411412111312254422544

    35-3921601060310457216021060

    40-442064310334103092064320643

    45-4921731047110602217321073

    50-542255511119114362255522555

    55-592191410659112552191421914

    60-64193391459888193319033

    65-6915528728882401552815528

    70-741187534653118711087

    75-7977823371441177827782

    80-8455342214332055345534

    85-8937341319241437343734

    90-941924553137119241924

    95-99635134501635134635

    100+1321811413218132

    329013

    17657454%

    UK

    YearAgeBothsexescombinedMaleFemale

    20050-434461765168134463446

    9-May35491819173035493549

    14-Oct38311967186438313831

    15-193970236193539703970

    20-2438711965190638713871

    25-2937171858185837173717

    30-34416627229441664166

    35-3946392297234246394639

    40-4446342293234146344634

    45-494271992235427427

    50-5436761819185736763676

    55-5939191931198839193919

    60-6431161524159231163116

    65-6927161306141127162716

    70-742332182125023322332

    75-791951838111219511951

    80-84147756391414771477

    85-89759242517759759

    90-9434487257344344

    95-999217759292

    100+132111313

    56645

    2904951%

    20100-436241857176736243624

    9-May34481766168234483448

    14-Oct35761836174135763576

    15-193920216190439203920

    20-24411521072741154115

    25-294152331982415415

    30-3438151904191138153815

    35-394203290211342034203

    40-4446292292233746294629

    45-4946012273232846014601

    50-543972196021239723972

    55-5935871765182235873587

    60-6437721840193237723772

    65-6929321412152129322932

    70-7424531148130424532453

    75-79196287019219621962

    80-84146758588114671467

    85-89926315612926926

    90-9436799268367367

    95-991142392114114

    100+182161818

    57916

    2933751%

    20150-436841887179736843684

    9-May36271858176936273627

    14-Oct34761783169234763476

    15-1936661885178136663666

    20-244662881977466466

    25-294260217528442604260

    30-34411427923541144114

    35-3938541924193138543854

    40-444197287211041974197

    45-4945992274232545994599

    50-5445442240230445444544

    55-5938831906197738833883

    60-6434611687177434613461

    65-6935631712185135633563

    70-7426641250141326642664

    75-792839341149283283

    80-84149661887814961496

    85-89940336604940940

    90-94462133328462462

    95-9912727100127127

    100+243202424

    57390

    2991752%

    Purnendu Kumar:

  • Driven from Consumption Throughout the 1.1 Billion Population5-7 millionSuper Rich70 80 millionAfford Cars, Private Healthcare & Foreign travel250 - 300 million

    Afford goods like Refrigerators , Scooters & Colour TVs600-700 million (Generally Rural)Afford simple industrial products e.g. bicycles , radios , textilesPoverty Line = income less than $ 1/day Source: McKinsey, 60 % of Indias population are under 24 years

  • With High Private ConsumptionGDP US$ 935 billionPrivate ConsumptionUS$ 580 Billion(62%)Public Spending and Capital FormationUS$ 355 Billion (38%)Retail US$ 342 Billion(59%)Non RetailUS$ 238 Billion(41%)Urban (5,100 towns) US$ 154 Billion(45%)Rural (6,27,000 villages)US$ 188 Billion(55%)Modern retail US$ 12 billion 8% of urban retail spendsModern retail NegligibleFoodApparelBeveragesFootwearConsumer durablesAppliancesStationeryKitchen utensilsFurnitureFurnishingsSports goodsHealth & BeautyPersonal CareJewelleryTimingTransport CommunicationRecreationCultural ServicesEducationRentUtilitiesOther ServicesSource: Central Statistical Organization (CS0) and Technopak Analysis Conversion rate: 1 US$ = 40.86 Rs.

  • About US $530 Billion Retail Market by 2012GDP* US$ 1,450 billionPrivate ConsumptionUS$ 870 Billion(60%)Public Spending and Capital FormationUS$ 580 Billion (40%)RetailUS$ 530 Billion(61%)Non RetailUS$ 340 Billion(39%)UrbanUS$ 252 Billion(47.5%)RuralUS$ 278 Billion(52.5%)Modern retail US$ 78 billion 31% of urban retail spendsModern retail US$ 9 billion 3% of rural retail spendsSource: Technopak Analysis *All figures are in nominal terms after taking into account inflation

    *

    Which Makes Indian Retail an Attractive MarketIndia tops the Global Retail Development Index

  • ORGANISED v/s UNORGANISEDThe Indian retail market, over the last decade, has been increasingly leaning towards organized retailing formats. The pattern in domestic retailing is altering in the favor of organized modern retailing, a big change from the traditional plethora of unorganized family-owned businesses. Rapid urbanization, changes in shopping pattern, demographic dividend and pro-active measures by the Government are abetting the growth of the retail sector in India.

  • Organised retail in India is expected to increase from 5 per cent of the total market in 2008 to 14 - 18 per cent of the total retail market and reach US$ 450 billion by 2015

    According to a report titled 'India Organised Retail Market 2010', published by Knight Frank India, during 2010-12 around 55 million square feet (sq ft) of retail space will be ready in Mumbai, national capital region (NCR), Bengaluru, Kolkata, Chennai, Hyderabad and Pune. Besides, between 2010 and 2012, the organised retail real estate stock will grow from the existing 41 million sq ft to 95 million sq ft.Driven by the growth of organised retail coupled with changing consumer habits, food retail sector in India is set to be more than double to US$ 150 billion by 2025.

  • Organized Retailing in India (2006)

    Organized retailINR 28,000 croreClothing, Textiles &Fashion accessories39%Footwear9%Jewellery & Watches7%Mobile handsets & accessories3%Health & Beauty (including services)2%Food & Grocery18%Durables13%Books, Music & Gifts3%Home3%

  • *

    Modern Retail Organized ChannelsThe share of organized retail is less than 3% of the total retail market The size of modern retail is about US$ 8 Billion and has grown by 35% CAGR in last five years

    *

    .. but Rapid Transformation is AnticipatedAnd may reach a share of 25% by 2017

    Chart2

    34212

    373.46417.832

    407.82268826.498352

    445.34237529639.376551072

    486.313873823258.513554893

    53087

    800200

    Total Retail

    Organized Retail

    US$ Billion

    Current Size & Future Projections for Indian Retail Market

    Investments-New

    to be updated - 16 Jan 2007

    Retail Investment Scenario

    Note:Investment to include Debt + Equity

    US$ 145Rs

    US$ 1 Million4.5Rs / Crores

    Serial #NameFormatLevelSize of Investment by 2011BasisForeign

    1Reliance6,00027,0000%0

    2Kumar Birla3,00013,5000%0

    3Bharti - Walmart7,00031,50050%3500

    4ITC2,0009,0000

    5TescoF&GL11,0004,500100%1000

    6CarrefourF&GL11,0004,500100%1000

    7MetroF&GL11,0004,500021,000

    8Future Group5002,2500

    9IkeaSpL15002,250100%500

    10Oil Majors (Reliance, HP, IOC etc)2,0009,0000

    11Ratan Tata + Partners1,5006,7500

    12DS Group2501,1250

    13Godrej - Aadhar + NB2501,1250

    14M&M2501,1250

    15Shoppers Stop2501,1250

    16Spencers / RPG2501,1250

    17WatsonsSpL22501,125100%250

    18Essar2009000

    19Trent2009000

    20Apollo Pharmacy1004500

    21Heritage1004500

    22Landmark - Lifestyle1004500

    23Nilgiri's1004500

    24ShopriteF&GL31004500

    25Subhiksha1004500

    26Trinethra - Fabmall1004500

    27Vishal Megamart1004500

    28Arvind Brands502250

    29Macdonald'sF&BL1502250

    30Madura Garments502250

    31Planet Sports (Various formats)502250

    32Raymond502250

    33VLCC502250

    34Yum!F&BL1502250

    35Barista251130

    36Benetton251130

    37Caf Coffee Day251130

    38CostaF&BL2251130

    39Dollar StoreF&GL3251130

    40eBay251130

    41Fabindia251130

    42Globus251130

    43Guardian251130

    44Lifeken251130

    45Marico (Kaya)251130

    46Medicine Shoppe251130

    47Next251130

    48Nike251130

    49Reebok - Adidas251130

    50SparF&GL3251130

    51Titan / Tanishq251130

    52Viveks251130

    53Others2,0009,0000

    54Jumbo502250

    55

    56

    57

    58

    59

    60

    Total31,050139,7256,250

    Assuming investments by global retailers40%12,420

    13000

    Invest

    Investment pattern

    % Of Players following a particulr investment patternYear 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5Year 6Year 7Year 8

    45%10%20%25%15%10%10%10%100%

    35%15%25%20%15%10%10%5%100%

    20%15%25%25%20%10%5%100%

    100%

    Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5Year 6Year 7Year 8

    5%9%11%7%5%5%5%0%

    0%5%9%7%5%4%4%2%

    0%0%3%5%5%4%2%1%

    Overall Investment Pattern5%14%23%19%15%12%10%3%

    75%25%

    USD Bn investments31,05023,3657,685

    Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5Year 6

    Birla Investment Pattern7%20%34%23%9%7%100%

    146.2447.1742.5515.5198.3165.82215.4

    RelianceYear 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5Year 6Year 7Year 8Year 9Year 10Year 11

    Rs. Cr.30,465101.3993.45836.67806.53593.51165.4813.93062.14185.81997.0486.8422.6

    USD Mn6,770Cum.1094.77279006996931.3633087414737.876164891618331.379197844519496.73933710220310.667495419823372.79192760227558.637452498529555.651779880430042.443577558130465.0029154612

    100%3%19%26%12%4%3%10%14%7%2%1%

    66%33%

    Projections

    20072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020

    Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5Year 6Year 7Year 8Year 9Year 10

    1Likely Roll Out of Investments5%14%23%19%15%12%10%3%

    10.0450.14250.230.18750.14750.120.10.0275

    2Sales Multiple In 4th year of operations4.5

    Five Year's Average3.2

    Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5Year 6Year 7Year 8Year 9Year 10

    2.32.93.444.65.35.96.67.48.5

    3Growth rate % year on year20%15%15%15%15%12%12%12%15%

    25%18%18%

    AInvestments likely to be made by all players (domestic + foreign)US $ b31.051.44.47.15.84.63.73.10.9

    2nd Wave of Investments1.13.65.84.73.73.02.5

    81%25.0

    BLikely Revenue for the above investmentsUS $ b3.214.334.054.775.898.0121.3142.0161.9183.4

    From 2nd wave of investments2.611.527.444.161.0

    TOTAL REVENUES3.214.334.054.775.8100.6132.8169.4205.9244.4

    growth342%139%61%39%33%32%28%22%19%

    CExisting Modern Retail SizeUS $ b1213.415.116.918.921.123.726.529.733.337.3

    (growing @ 12%)12.0%12.0%12%

    1531711912142400%

    DTotal Modern Retail Market SizeUS $ b121729517497124.2159.4199.1239.2281.7

    CAGR till 201152%1828426497

    CAGR till 201539.3%16.723.332.445.262.987.7122.1170.1237.0330.1

    CAGR till 202031.3%543

    200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172020

    ETotal Retail Market (US $ b)Total Retail34237340844548653059065873381680089199311061232

    Organized Retail121826395987124159199239200167140117547

    Growth49%49%49%49%49%43%28%25%20%-16%18%

    11.9%11.4%11.4%

    F% Share of Total Retail4%4%7%11%15%18%21%24%27%29%35%44%

    4Investments likely to be made by top 5 playersUS $ b19.00.92.74.43.62.82.31.90.50.00.0

    61%

    5Likely Revenue for the above investmentsUS $ b2.08.720.833.546.459.974.386.999.0112.2

    45%53%41%

    9%12%

    6Cumulative RevenueUS $ b2.010.731.565.0111.4171.4245.6332.5431.5543.8

    4Investments likely to be made by the foreign playersUS $ b12.40.61.82.92.31.81.51.20.30.00.0

    40%

    5Likely Revenue for the above investmentsUS $ b1.35.713.621.930.334.939.143.849.056.4

    31%

    6Cumulative RevenueUS $ b1.37.020.642.572.8107.7146.8190.5239.5295.9

    7Cumulative COGS (% Of Revenue)75%1.05.215.531.954.680.8110.1142.9179.6221.9

    8Cumulative Local Sourcing (% COGS)50%0.52.67.715.927.340.455.071.489.8111.0

    9Calculation for Valuation

    Ratio of Sales to Market Cap139.0643.7549.0056.35

    Debt :Equity50%19.521.924.528.2

    Proposed % Of Equity Dilution30%5.866.567.358.45

    Share of FII out of this equity70%4.104.595.155.92

    10Employment Creation

    10a.Retail

    Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5Year 6Year 7Year 8Year 9Year 10

    Sales per sqft (From AVB)Rs per sqft10000

    Space Requiredm sqft136157176197221254

    Conversion of US $ to Rs45

    Front end employeeSpace per employee4000.30.40.40.50.60.6

    Back end employees( Branch/Warehouse)30%0.10.10.10.10.20.2

    Totalmillion0.40.50.60.60.70.8

    Total - Modern Retail1.41.82.32.93.54.1

    Check

    Employees Cost as % of sales4%1.21.41.61.82.02.3

    Cost per employee per annum Rs

    Sales70%146315

    Regional office and Branch10%445673

    Warehouse/ Logistics20%129102

    172808

    Validated from AVB Business Plan (Rs. 15,000 per month per employee)

    Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5Year 6Year 7Year 8Year 9Year 10

    Employees required0.320.360.410.460.510.59

    10b.Employment because of incremental Export

    Export Value per yearUS $ b1.04.310.216.422.726.229.332.836.842.3

    Employee Cost as % of Sales15%0.10.61.52.53.43.94.44.95.56.3

    Cost per employee155,4780.991.141.271.421.601.83

    Assuming high Attrition rate

    11Cess CalculationYear 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5Year 6Year 7Year 8Year 9Year 10

    Total Retail marketUS $ b300426650

    Total Investments in RetailUS $ b31

    Revenue for modern formatsUS $ b3.214.334.054.775.887.297.7109.4122.5140.9

    % Share of modern format1%18%22%

    Assuming Share which qualifies for cess85%2.712.128.946.564.474.183.093.0104.1119.7

    Proposed Cess Charged1%0.030.120.290.470.640.740.830.931.041.20

    CumulativeUS $ b0.00.10.40.91.52.33.14.05.16.3

    Projections

    1

    Incremental Export Potential - Cumulative (US $ Bn)

    Graphs

    Share of modern retail4%16%28%

    Anil Rajpal:Based on Ratio of Store staff to Sales Manager and other senior members

    Anil Rajpal:Based on Ratio of Store staff to Sales Manager and other senior members

    Total Retail

    Organized Retail

    Years (2011, 2015, 2020)

    US$ Bn

    Indian Retail Projections

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    Graphs

    33612

    375.98416.670442

    420.72609629.3205855

    470.79250142450.90810025

    526.816809093573.61406732

    589.508009375696.9689399484

    1011.3830344046281.7169527488

    Total Retail

    Organized Retail

    US$ Billion

    Current Size & Future Projections for Indian Retail Market

    DataSheet

    27th December 2006Total Investments25Bn $60-65% will go to F&G

    Domestic1560-65%

    Emp. Elasticity for Retail Industry0.8Foreign10

    Overall CAGR13%11.9%31%No. of retail players40

    Cum OrgYearGDPRetailCAGR - Org RetailOrg Ret% RetailCAGR - ManpowerManpowerRetailOrganizedForeignShareF&G Retail

    12200693033052%124%42%200630016555%

    3020071051369185%0.3620073.46819%

    5820081188413287%0.51200810.11536%

    10020091342462429%0.72200921.57351%

    164201015165176412%1.02201042729.52846%

    262201117135799717%1.4520117535.99137%337,500

    3832012193664525%12219%20%1.74201241.3896534%

    5352013218871915221%2.08201346.35640830%3375

    7262014247280019024%2.50201450.992048827%

    9632015279489218%23827%3.00201563756.0912536824%

    12442016315799328028%3.60201661.70037904822%

    157520173567110733130%4.32201741%% retail40%

    196520184031123339132%5.19201812601681.3

    242620194555137346134%6.222019GDP growth7.50%8%9.30%9.50%

    297020205147153054436%7.472020CHINA PWC

    11.4%30%Rmb billion20002001200220032004

    Total Retail34153760420345845395

    Exchange9.70%10.10%11.80%9.10%17.70%13.20%

    55967.633589888Growth rates8.047USD424467522570670

    Anil's estimates2006330124%Organized12%20%

    include20115319418%50.9258108612134.0872374798

    inflation201568819528%CAGR27%132

    2020101134434%

    RealNominal

    RetailGrowthGDPgrowth% retailGDP nomgrowth% retail% retailNew RetailOrganizedPenetrationPenetrationTARGET

    200633093035%93035%35%326124%4%4%

    201157911.9%13668.0%42%171313%34%35%6009416%16%20%116

    201589211.4%18598.0%48%279413%32%35%97817918%20%30%268

    2020153011.4%27328.0%56%514713%30%35%180234419%22%36%551

    5%inflation

    OrganizedPenetration

    Anil's2006330124%

    estimates201155611.0%9417%

    201581410.0%17922%

    202012539%34427%

    SCENARIOS

    Retail-India-LATEST-V3

    PROJECTIONS (INDIA):80411331721

    300427637

    Current prices, USD Bn

    200620112015

    GDP93017132794

    CAGR:13.00%13.00%

    Retail330579892

    % of GDP35%34%32%

    CAGR:11.90%11.40%

    USD BnRetailUrbanRuralTop 150 cities

    2006330149182111

    Share:45%55%

    2015892446446334

    Share:50%50%

    Retail sales in top 150 cities =75%of urban market8%2006201020152020

    930126518592732

    CALCULATIONS:

    (USD Bn)2006

    330(Total Retail Sales)

    111(Top 150 cities retail sales)

    Real Growth Rate of RetailTop 150 citiesTotal Retail Market

    2011Share of top 50 players2011Share of top 50 playersAll figures in current prices

    6%14956%44219%

    7%15653%46318%

    8%16451%48517%

    9%17149%50816%

    10%17946%53116%

    11%18844%55615%

    12%19642%58214%

    13%20541%60814%

    14%21439%63513%Top 150 cities (9% real growth rate of retail)

    15%22437%66413%Year 2011ShareUSD Bn.Rs. Cr.(1USD = INR 45)

    16%23436%69312%Share of top 528%49219,265

    17%24434%72412%Share of next 4520%35155,5543618Rs. Cr. per player

    18%25533%75511%Share of top 5049%83374,819

    19%26631%78711%

    20%27730%82110%Total for 150 cities171788276

    Over Next Five Years (USD Bn)

    Top 50 PlayersTop 5 PlayersTotalTop 50Top 5

    Investment30.019

    Urban share of investment96%96%

    Top 150 cities share of urban75%75%

    Investment in Top 150 cities2214

    Turnover:Investment ratio3.53.5

    Additional Turnover - Top 5075.647.9

    Turnover from Existing Operations5.00.55

    Existing Turnover grown at 9% CAGR7.70.85

    2011 Turnover - Top 50 (new + exist)8349

    Curret market share of top 50

    in top 150 cities:4%

    Retail-India-LATEST-V3

    000

    000

    000

    GDP

    Retail

    US$ Billion

    GDP and Retail Projections for India

    CRISIL

    2005-62006-72010-11

    284.0222222222307.3111111111419.6222222222

    8.40%8.30%8.40%

    11.777777777815.044444444439.9333333333

    SharePenetration

    F&B951074%9318%1%

    Clothing11909%19537%16%

    CD6225%10620%17%

    Home3883%346%9%

    Jewelrt5494%346%6%

    Beauty2812%102%4%

    Footwear1341%448%33%

    Books1071%143%13%

    12781530

    Private Label SizeAAAAAAB+BCDAAAAAAB+

    Total size12Bn $2010

    Sales/ yr (Rs cr)Sales/ yr (Rs cr)Sales/ yr (Rs cr)Sales/ yr (Rs cr)Sales/ yr (Rs cr)Sales/ yr (Rs cr)Sales/ yr (Rs cr)Sales/ yr (Rs cr)Sales/ yr (Rs cr)Sales/ yr (Rs cr)Sales/ yr (Rs cr)

    Category shareSizePrivate LabelRs. Crore%

    Food & Grocery25%3.0179%1065937.533.7533.753021.616.210.832.72.72.4194.425%

    Consumer Durables22%2.6230%35414036363211.28.45.60000169.222%

    FMCG& Personal Care & Beauty3%0.3135%4944.54.054.053.61.080.810.540.450.4050.4050.3620.253%

    Apparel and Accessories9%1.1375%38141816.216.214.43.62.71.8000072.99%

    Home Furnishing + Dcor4%0.4975%165787.27.26.41.280.960.64000031.684%

    Pharmacy0%0.0620%500.80.720.720.640.320.240.1600003.60%

    Footwear3%0.3075%10174.54.054.053.61.441.080.72000019.443%

    Furniture13%1.5190%61032421.621.619.24.83.62.4000097.213%

    43.63.63.20.640.480.320.20.180.180.1616.562%

    43.63.63.20.640.480.32000015.842%

    1513.513.5120000000547%

    10.90.90.80.40.30.200004.51%

    1.21.081.080.960.240.180.120.150.1350.1350.125.41%

    54.54.541.61.20.80.50.450.450.423.43%

    21.81.81.60.80.60.4000091%

    Comparison of Private Label with Branded Players65.45.44.81.61.20.8000025.23%

    Private LabelBranded Market Leader2.42.162.161.921.280.960.64000011.521%

    F&G10659growth rate177.9160.11160.11142.3252.5239.3926.264.33.873.873.44774.09100%

    Consumer Durables3541800010%11713LG2006

    FMCG & Personal Care494100011%1870Nirma/Colgate2004

    Apparel & Accessories381420020%415Levis2004

    Home Furnishing & Dcor1657112025%3418bombay dyeing2005

    Pharmacy5036012%634apollo

    Footwear10177345%937bata2005

    Furniture610380025%1953godrej2006

    2010 Market Size

    Brand LeaderOwn Label

    Consumer Durables120003500

    FMCG & Personal Care1800500

    Apparel & Accessories4004000

    Home Furnishings35001500

    Pharmacy65050

    Footwear9001000

    Furniture20006000

    CRISIL

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    Brand Leader

    Own Label

    Estimated Turnover (Rs. Crore)

    Comparison of Own Label Leader with Brand Leader - 2010

    China

    ParameterChinaIndiaChina

    199620032005199620032006CAGR

    Per capita GDP (USD)6751,109710225400400.9512.32962248.6%

    Size of retail market (USD billion)2254002157.50%17%20%

    Share of organised trade (per cent)7-8~17< 416.8756868102.522%

    102.8

    Table 2New CAGR20%

    CountryShare of organised trade (per cent) (2003)Rmb billion20002001200220032004PWC

    India4Total Retail34153760420345845395

    China17Exchange9.70%10.10%11.80%9.10%17.70%13.20%

    Poland208.047USD424467522570670

    Indonesia30Organized12%20%

    Russia3350.9258108612134.0872374798

    Brazil35CAGR27%132

    Thailand40

    Malaysia55E&Y20042005e

    USA85Rmb bn54006000

    USD bn628

    199520012005e

    Rmb bn199436004608

    USD bn435

    80.50%28%

    CAGR12.80%

    Access AsiaForecasts

    19951996199719981999200020012002200320042005

    Rmb bn1986.62395.52644.82827.53023.13318.93586.83832.44089.84347.14604.5

    growth27%20%10.40%6.90%6.90%9.80%8.10%6.80%6.70%6.30%5.90%

    USD bn246.9297.7328.7351.4375.7412.4445.7476.3508.2540.2572.2

    5%20%

    12.3CAGR25.0%114.4

    115.0

    Access AsiaPWCForecast

    19951996199719981999200020012002200320042005

    Rmb bn1986.62395.52644.82827.53023.1341537604203458453956042.4

    growth27%20%10.40%6.90%6.90%9.70%10.10%11.80%9.10%17.70%12%

    USD bn246.9297.7328.7351.4375.7424467522570670751

    5%20%

    12.3CAGR28.5%150.2

    151.5

    Thailand200220032004

    THB bn233.5259.8263.4

    Total539475776060528

    Groc318503387735267

    Mod Groc219582404126423

    69%71%75%

    Retail-India-V2

    PROJECTIONS (INDIA):80411331721

    300427637

    Current prices, USD Bn

    200620102015

    GDP93013101974

    CAGR:8.95%8.72%

    Retail330470701

    % of GDP35%36%36%

    CAGR:9.23%8.33%

    USD BnRetailUrbanRuralTop 150 cities

    2006330149182111

    Share:45%55%

    2015701350350263

    Share:50%50%

    Retail sales in top 150 cities =75%of urban market8%2006201020152020

    930126518592732

    CALCULATIONS:

    (USD Bn)2006

    330(Total Retail Sales)

    111(Top 150 cities retail sales)

    Real Growth Rate of RetailTop 150 citiesTotal Retail Market

    2011Share of top 50 players2011Share of top 50 playersAll figures in current prices

    6%14956%44219%

    7%15653%46318%

    8%16451%48517%

    9%17149%50816%

    10%17946%53116%

    11%18844%55615%

    12%19642%58214%

    13%20541%60814%

    14%21439%63513%Top 150 cities (9% real growth rate of retail)

    15%22437%66413%Year 2011ShareUSD Bn.Rs. Cr.(1USD = INR 45)

    16%23436%69312%Share of top 528%49219,265

    17%24434%72412%Share of next 4520%35155,5543618Rs. Cr. per player

    18%25533%75511%Share of top 5049%83374,819

    19%26631%78711%

    20%27730%82110%Total for 150 cities171788276

    Over Next Five Years (USD Bn)

    Top 50 PlayersTop 5 PlayersTotalTop 50Top 5

    Investment30.019

    Urban share of investment96%96%

    Top 150 cities share of urban75%75%

    Investment in Top 150 cities2214

    Turnover:Investment ratio3.53.5

    Additional Turnover - Top 5075.647.9

    Turnover from Existing Operations5.00.55

    Existing Turnover grown at 9% CAGR7.70.85

    2011 Turnover - Top 50 (new + exist)8349

    Curret market share of top 50

    in top 150 cities:4%

    Retail-India-V2

    000

    000

    000

    GDP

    Retail

    US$ Billion

    GDP and Retail Projections for India

    Retail-India-V1

    PROJECTIONS (INDIA):80411331721

    300427637

    Current prices, USD Bn

    200620102015

    GDP93013101974

    CAGR:8.95%8.72%

    Retail330442640

    % of GDP35%34%32%

    CAGR:7.60%7.60%

    USD BnRetailUrbanRuralTop 150 cities

    2006330149182111

    Share:45%55%

    2015640320320240

    Share:50%50%

    Retail sales in top 150 cities =75%of urban market

    CALCULATIONS:

    (USD Bn)2006

    330(Total Retail Sales)

    111(Top 150 cities retail sales)

    Real Growth Rate of RetailTop 150 citiesTotal Retail Market

    2011Share of top 50 players2011Share of top 50 playersAll figures in current prices

    6%14956%44219%

    7%15653%46318%

    8%16451%48517%

    9%17149%50816%

    10%17946%53116%

    11%18844%55615%

    12%19642%58214%

    13%20541%60814%

    14%21439%63513%Top 150 cities (9% real growth rate of retail)

    15%22437%66413%Year 2011ShareUSD Bn.Rs. Cr.(1USD = INR 45)

    16%23436%69312%Share of top 528%49219,265

    17%24434%72412%Share of next 4520%35155,5543618Rs. Cr. per player

    18%25533%75511%Share of top 5049%83374,819

    19%26631%78711%

    20%27730%82110%Total for 150 cities171788276

    Over Next Five Years (USD Bn)

    Top 50 PlayersTop 5 PlayersTotalTop 50Top 5

    Investment30.019

    Urban share of investment96%96%

    Top 150 cities share of urban75%75%

    Investment in Top 150 cities2214

    Turnover:Investment ratio3.53.5

    Additional Turnover - Top 5075.647.9

    Turnover from Existing Operations5.00.55

    Existing Turnover grown at 9% CAGR7.70.85

    2011 Turnover - Top 50 (new + exist)8349

    Curret market share of top 50

    in top 150 cities:4%

    Retail-India-V1

    000

    000

    000

    GDP

    Retail

    US$ Billion

    GDP and Retail Projections for India

    Investment-Players

    30th July 2006

    Retail Investment Scenario

    Note:Investment to include Debt + Equity

    US$ 145Rs

    US$ 1 Million4.5Rs / Crores

    Serial #NameBusinessSize of Investment by 2011CumulativeCurrent Turnover

    (US$ Million)(Rs / Crores)(US$ Million)(Rs / Crores)

    1Reliance6,00027,000--

    2Bharti - Tesco2,0009,000--

    3ITC2,0009,0004502023

    4Wal-Mart2,0009,000--

    5Carrefour1,0004,50013,000--

    6Kumar Birla1,0004,500--

    7Metro1,0004,50015,000100450

    8Future Group5002,250549.55555555562473

    9Ikea5002,250-100-450

    10Oil Majors (Reliance, HP, IOC etc)5002,250Top 54502023

    11Ratan Tata + Partners5002,250

    12DS Group2501,125

    13Godrej - Aadhar + NB2501,125

    14M&M2501,125

    15Shoppers Stop2501,125

    16Spencers / RPG2501,125

    17Watsons2501,125

    18Essar200900

    19Trent200900

    20Apollo Pharmacy100450

    21Heritage100450

    22Landmark - Lifestyle100450

    23Nilgiri's100450

    24Shoprite100450

    25Subhiksha100450

    26Trinethra - Fabmall100450

    27Vishal Megamart100450

    28Arvind Brands50225

    29Macdonald's50225

    30Madura Garments50225

    31Planet Sports (Various formats)50225

    32Raymond50225

    33VLCC50225

    34Yum!50225

    35Barista25113

    36Benetton25113

    37Caf Coffee Day25113

    38Costa25113

    39Dollar Store25113

    40eBay25113

    41Fabindia25113

    42Globus25113

    43Guardian25113

    44Lifeken25113

    45Marico (Kaya)25113

    46Medicine Shoppe25113

    47Next25113

    48Nike25113

    49Reebok - Adidas25113

    50Spar25113

    51Titan / Tanishq2511320,450

    52Viveks25113

    53Others3,00013,500

    54

    55

    56

    57

    58

    59

    60

    Total23,500105,750

    Rs. Cr.USD Mn

    20052005

    ITC Turnover169023,756

    ITC - FMCG - Others1014.00225

    ITC Lifestyle Retail27060

    E-Choupal1753390

    Total Retailing2023450

    Wills LS150stores

    Avg Store Size2000

    sales/sq.ft.9000

    Sales270

    Retail-India

    PROJECTIONS (INDIA):

    Current prices, USD Bn

    200620102015

    GDP80411331721

    CAGR:8.95%8.72%

    Retail300427637300427637

    % of GDP37%38%37%9.23%8.33%

    CAGR:9.23%8.33%

    USD BnRetailUrbanRuralTop 150 cities

    2006300135165101.25

    Share:45%55%

    2015637318.5318.5238.9

    Share:50%50%

    Retail sales in top 150 cities =75%of urban market

    CALCULATIONS:

    (USD Bn)2006

    300(Total Retail Sales)

    101.3(Top 150 cities retail sales)

    Real Growth Rate of RetailTop 150 citiesTotal Retail Market

    2011Share of top 50 players2011Share of top 50 playersAll figures in current prices

    6%13542%40114%

    7%14240%42114%

    8%14938%44113%

    9%15637%46212%

    10%16335%48312%

    11%17134%50611%

    12%17832%52911%

    13%18731%55310%

    14%19529%57810%Top 150 cities (9% real growth rate of retail)

    15%20428%6039%Year 2011USD Bn.Rs. Cr.(1USD = INR 45)

    16%21327%6309%Share of top 521%32.1144,390

    17%22226%6589%Share of next 4516%25.1113,0132628Rs. Cr. per player

    18%23225%6868%Share of top 5037%57.2257,403

    19%24224%7168%

    20%25223%7468%Total for 150 cities156716614

    Over Next Five Years (USD Bn)

    Top 50 PlayersTop 5 Players

    Investment20.513

    Urban share of investment92%92%

    Top 150 cities share of urban75%75%

    Investment in Top 150 cities14.19.0

    Turnover:Investment ratio3.53.5

    Additional Turnover - Top 5049.531.4

    Turnover from Existing Operations5.00.45

    Existing Turnover grown at 9% CAGR7.70.69

    2011 Turnover - Top 50 (new + exist)57.232.1

    Curret market share of top 50

    in top 150 cities:5%

    Retail-India (2)

    PROJECTIONS (INDIA):

    Current prices, USD Bn

    200620102015

    GDP80411331721

    CAGR:8.95%8.72%

    Retail300427637

    % of GDP37%38%37%

    CAGR:9.23%8.33%

    USD BnRetailUrbanRuralTop 150 cities

    2006300135165101.25

    Share:45%55%

    2015637318.5318.5238.9

    Share:50%50%

    Retail sales in top 150 cities =75%of urban market

    CALCULATIONS:

    (USD Bn)2006

    300(Total Retail Sales)

    101.3(Top 150 cities retail sales)

    Real Growth Rate of RetailTop 150 citiesTotal Retail Market

    2011Share of top 50 players2011Share of top 50 playersAll figures in current prices

    6%13542%40114%

    7%14240%42114%

    8%14938%44113%

    9%15637%46212%

    10%16335%48312%

    11%17134%50611%

    12%17832%52911%

    13%18731%55310%

    14%19529%57810%Top 150 cities (9% real growth rate of retail)

    15%20428%6039%Year 2011USD Bn.Rs. Cr.(1USD = INR 45)

    16%21327%6309%Share of top 724%37.1166,818

    17%22226%6589%Share of next 4313%20.190,5852107Rs. Cr. per player

    18%23225%6868%Share of top 5037%57.2257,403

    19%24224%7168%

    20%25223%7468%Total for 150 cities156716614

    Over Next Five Years (USD Bn)

    Top 50 PlayersTop 7 Players

    Investment20.515

    Urban share of investment92%92%

    Top 150 cities share of urban75%75%

    Investment in Top 150 cities14.110.4

    Turnover:Investment ratio3.53.5

    Additional Turnover - Top 5049.536.2

    Turnover from Existing Operations5.00.55

    Existing Turnover grown at 9% CAGR7.70.85

    2011 Turnover - Top 50 (new + exist)57.237.1

    Curret market share of top 50

    in top 150 cities:5%

    India-Graphs

    PROJECTIONS (INDIA):

    Current prices, USD Bn

    200620102015

    GDP80411331721

    Retail300427637

    Current prices, USD Bn

    RetailUrbanRuralTop 150 cities

    2006300135165101.25

    2015637318.5318.5238.9

    Retail sales in top 150 cities =75%of urban market

    India-Graphs

    00

    00

    00

    GDP

    Retail

    USD Bn

    India - GDP & Retail (current prices)

    Retail-China

    0000

    0000

    Retail

    Urban

    Rural

    Top 150 cities

    USD Bn

    Break-up of Retail Sector - India (current prices)

    Urban-Rural China

    CHINA (GRDI 2005 - A T Kearney)Gross fixedGFI real

    (USD Bn) (Figures from 2005 to 2010 are estimates)Nom GDPreal growthnom growthinvestment% yoy

    YEARRetail sales NomGrowth in RetailNom GDPGrowth in GDP11998.40%32.90%9.50%

    2001454117613258.30%9.5%33.60%12.40%

    20024948.8%12718.1%14549.10%8.9%34.80%13.60%

    20035368.5%141211.1%164110%11.4%37.70%19.80%

    200462817.2%165317.1%193210.10%15.1%39%15.10%

    20056706.7%17858.0%22289.90%13.3%43.40%14%Forecasts

    200675412.5%19288.0%25859.40%13.8%42%13%

    200784812.5%20828.0%29178.50%11.4%42.50%14%

    200895512.6%22498.0%(% GDP)

    2009107412.5%24298.0%

    2010120912.6%26238.0%

    CAGR9.20%10.20%

    (Source: Worldbank, IMFWorld Economic Outook Database, Access Asia,Nominal Growth in RetailNominal Growth in GDP

    China Statistics Bureau and A. T. Kearney analysis)20029%8%

    20039%11%

    CHINA (PWC Report on Retail - From Beijing to Budapest 2005/2006)200417%17%

    (RMB Bn)20057%8%

    YEARRetail Sales -NomGrowth - NominalGrowth-Real200613%8%

    200034159.7%200712%8%

    2001376010.1%200813%8%

    2002420311.8%200912%8%

    200345849.1%201013%8%

    2004539517.7%10.20%1079

    (Source: Ministry of Commerce, China)

    CHINA - TOP 30 (E&Y presentation)

    A highly segmented market

    Top 30 retailers in China generated RMB384.6 billion in 2004 (up 33% from 2003)

    These retailers:

    Comprise 7.1% of total retail sales in China

    Operate 13,801 outlets (23.8% increase from 2004)

    Include eight foreign retailers that represented more than 22% of sales and 25% of the top 30 total outlets

    E&Y PRESENTATION

    Source: Xinhua News, 8 Feb 2005

    Note: 1USD = RMB 8.28

    2004 Sales - In Billions

    USD

    RMB

    2.0

    16.2

    5. Carrefour (China)

    2.7

    22.1

    4. Suning Appliances

    2.8

    23.1

    3. DalianDashang Group

    2.9

    23.9

    2. Beijing Gome

    8.2

    67.6

    1. Bailian Group

    Urban-Rural China

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    Nominal Growth in Retail

    Nominal Growth in GDP

    Sheet1

    CHINA - RETAIL SALES BY HABITATION 1995-2001

    RMB billion, current prices

    1995199619971998199920002001

    Urban1072.21290.21475.91610.31736.71928.92033.1

    % growth38.020.314.49.17.811.15.4

    Rural914.51105.31168.81217.21286.41389.91553.7

    % growth16.220.95.74.15.78.011.8

    Total1986.72395.52644.72827.53023.13318.83586.8

    % growth20.610.46.96.99.88.1

    As % of Total Retail Sales

    Urban54.053.955.857.057.458.156.7

    Rural46.046.144.243.042.641.943.3

    Base Year 1999-2000New EstimatesExisting estimates at TechnopakROUGHRevised Estimates

    2005-062005-06US$ Bn% share2005-062005-06

    FBT63139275%FBT76923163.2%76923163%212FBT65%FBT76923161%FBT76923165%

    Clothing579367%Apparel939457.7%939458%26Apparel7%Clothing939458%Apparel939458%

    Footwear83561%Footwear104610.9%104611%3Footwear2%Footwear104611%Footwear104611%

    repairsFur, Furn16480.2%Furnishings16210.1%4050.03%0.11Furnishings1%FF, CDIT599985%Furnishings30000.3%

    Furniture0.0%12160.10%0.34Furniture3%Furniture90001%

    CD & IT310514%CDIT583774.8%583775%16CDIT5%CDIT479984%

    servicesMedical care & health services27412.53%Medical Care & Health Services13548311.1%13548311%37Medical Care & Health Services3%Medical67741.55%Medical Care & Health Services677426%

    Recreation & cultural services18510.2%Recreation22970.2%22970.2%1Recreation0.60%Recreation376123%Recreation36650.3%

    Personal care375884%Personal Care593674.9%593675%16Personal Care5%Personal carePersonal Care822157%

    Jewellery & Watches260013%Jewellery & Watches518834.3%518834%14Jewellery & Watches5%Jewellery & Watches568715%

    Others171472%Others353152.9%353153%10Others4%Others21350617%Others339473%

    84038312179801217980100%336101%1252494.5100%1178074.82081792

    Total PFCE12662942072079207207920720792072079

    %66%59%59%%60%57%

    GDP1792292

    PFCE%71%

    2006-0740.86

    Rs. Crore$Bn9%30

    GDP374347291613%44

    PFCE232733157062%45%55%22%74

    Retail1373125.2933659%UrbanRural27%91

    Non-Retail95420623441%15118531%104

    33%111

    2005-06Rs. Crore35%118

    GDP3250932

    PFCE206463863.51%

    @ Provisional Estimates

    1999-002000-012001-022002-032003-042004-05@2005-06** Quick Estimates

    GDP1786525192541521001872265304254941828559333250932

    PFCE1257541134641814663531545126171345018737292072079

    %70.39%69.93%69.82%68.21%67.21%65.61%63.74%

    Market size US$ billion 2006% Share 2006Growth rate (2006-11)Market size US$ billion 2011% Share 2011Growth rate (2011-16)Market size US$ billion 2016% Share 2016

    Food, Beverages & Tobacco21263%10%34258%8%51251%

    Personal Care165%14%325%12%565%

    Apparel268%15%529%12%929%

    Footwear31%11%51%12%91%

    Furniture & Furnishings0.40.1%16%0.90%16%20%

    CDIT165%17%356%16%747%

    Jewellery & Watches144%14%285%13%515%

    Medical Care & Health Services3711%13%6912%16%14514%

    Recreation10.2%13%10.2%24%30.3%

    Others103%19%234%24%687%

    TOTAL336100%11.9%590100%11.4%1012100%

    AgricultureIndustryServices

    2003-0422.20%26.80%51%

    2004-0538.80%19.50%41.70%

    AgricultureIndustryServices

    2005-0618.327.654.1

    2004-0518.827.553.7

    2003-0420.926.153

    2002-0320.926.552.6

    2004-05@

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    RECENT TRENDS

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    Recent TrendsExperimentation with formats: Retailing in India is still evolving and the sector is witnessing a series of experiments across the country with new formats being tested out. Ex. Quasi-mall, sub-urban discount stores, Cash and carry etc.

    Store design : Biggest challenge for organized retailing to create a customer-pull environment that increases the amount of impulse shopping. Research shows that the chances of senses dictating sales are upto 10-15%. Retail chains like MusicWorld, Baristas, Piramyd and Globus are laying major emphasis & investing heavily in store design.

    Emergence of discount stores: They are expected to spearhead the organized retailing revolution. Stores trying to emulate the model of Wal-Mart. Ex. Big Bazaar, Bombay Bazaar, RPGs.

    Unorganized retailing is getting organized: To meet the challenges of organized retailing such as large Cineplex's, and malls, which are backed by the corporate house such as 'Ansals' and 'PVR the unorganized sector is getting organized. 25 stores in Delhi under the banner of Provision mart are joining hands to combine monthly buying. Bombay Bazaar and Efoodmart formed which are aggregations of Kiranas.Recent changes:

    Unorganized : Vast majority of the twelve million stores are small "father and son" outlets

    Fragmented : Mostly small individually owned businesses, average size of outlet equals 50 s.q. ft. Though India has the highest number of retail outlets per capita in the world, the retail space per capita at 2 s.q. ft per person is amongst the lowest. Rural bias: Nearly two thirds of the stores are located in rural areas. Rural retail industry has typically two forms: "Haats" and Melas". Haats are the weekly markets : serve groups of 10-50 villages and sell day-to-day necessities. Melas are larger in size and more sophisticated in terms of the goods sold (like TVs)

    Traditionally three factors have plagued the retail industry:

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    Retail Market not limited to metros but widely across IndiaThe classic skimming strategy in the metros is not longer sufficient100 cities strategyOver 250 large size shopping malls are currently under constructionLeading cities 2030 are forecasted to beMumbaiNew DelhiChandigarh

  • AADHARFuture Group and Godrej Agrovet's joint venture (JV) in rural retailing, 'Aadhar', is all set for a revamp. The alliance operates stores in Gujarat, Maharashtra, Haryana and Punjab and mainly sells wheat and paddy apart from daily need products. The company also provides farmers with solutions to problems regarding their agricultural output, which includes what kind of crop can they plant and when, along with techno-commercial suggestions to help them give a better output.

    RURAL RETAILING

  • Champion Agro LtdRajkot based Champion Agro Ltd is planning to come up with single window shopping facility for farmers. The company already has 35 agri-retailing outlets in the Saurashtra region, and is expected to open around 400 outlets at a taluka level across Gujarat by 2016. It will open 50 new outlets by the end of 2011with an investment of US$ 3.3 million. The overall investment planned is between US$ 66.7 US$ 88.94 million.

  • ACIL Cotton Industries Vadodara based ACIL Cotton Industries is all set to come up with around 40 outlets of 'ACIL Krishi Store' in Gujarat. Of these, four outlets got operational in April - May 2011. As for 2011, ACIL has decided to focus on the Gujarat market. ACIL stores will sell all types of seeds, fungicides, fertilisers, micronutrients.

  • OTHER VENTURESMarico is using mobile technology innovatively to arm its field representatives in their procurement process. The IT team at Marico developed a mobile-based application for Nokia 5235 series handsets. The company gave these GPS-enabled phones to 120 of its field representatives, with mapped routes.

  • Hindustan Unilever Ltd (HUL) is experimenting with tablet PCs in its attempt to increase its rural reach. It has been able to reach to 500,000 outlets in a years time. According to Nitin Paranjape, managing director, HUL, We put all the villages on an IT map. The name of the village, its total strength, nearest distributors available, whether it has a school, a hospital, a primary health centre, all of this was mapped. We used this information to determine the opportunity the village presented to us.

  • Global Heavyweights in Indian Retailing

    Joint VenturesProduct RangeRetail FormatsBharti-Walmart (with $2.5 Billion investment by Bharti)Food & grocery, electronics & appliances, clothing & footwear, furniture & furnishing, household articles. Hypermarkets, Supermarkets and ConvenienceCarrefour-LandmarkFood and groceries, FMCG, apparel and electronics HypermarketsHome Retail Group plc - Shopper's Stop Ltd and Hypercity Retail India Private Ltd Franchising the Argos concept under the terms of the arrangement, Argos will be providing its brand, catalogue and multi-channel expertise and IT support Multi Channel propositionsTata-WoolworthsSourcing agreement for Consumer durables and Foods under brand name CROMAMulti brand retail chainStaples Inc Pantaloon RetailGlobal Sourcing of Office equipments across various businessesCash and carryRelianceFood & grocery, electronics & appliances, clothing & footwear, furniture & furnishing, household articles.Multi format and Multi CategoryBirlaFood & grocery, electronics & appliances, clothing & footwear, furniture & furnishing, household articles.Convenience and Supermarket

  • FDI in RetailAt present, the government allows 51% foreign direct investment in a single-brand retail venture while 100% is permitted in wholesale cash-and-carry. Under single-brand retailing a store can stock goods that have the same brand. In the wholesale cash-and-carry route, which most foreign retailers use, there is restriction on sale to individuals. These stores are only permitted to sell to outfits such as restaurants and kirana stores

  • FDI in RetailForeign direct investment (FDI) inflows between April 2000 and December 2010, in single-brand retail trading, stood at US$ 66.69 million, according to the Department of Industrial Policy and Promotion (DIPP).

  • FDI in Multi Brand RetailingIndia's multi-brand retail sector, is estimated to be worth $28 billion (Rs 125,000 crore) according to a Boston Consulting Group (BCG) study.The government is likely to permit foreign direct investment (FDI) in the multi-brand retail sector from April 2012.

  • The government prepared a draft in July 2011, which says 49 per cent FDI in multi-brand retail will be allowed in a phased manner which will be effective from the next financial year i.e. April 2012.The Committee of Secretaries (CoS) headed by Cabinet secretary Ajit Kumar Seth met on July 22 to finalise the blueprint of the proposal for political clearance. One of the major outcome of the discussion is raising 49% to 51%.

  • According to the the economic advisor to the Prime Minister, Kaushik Basu , the government will allow FDI in three phases. In the first phase, foreign multi-brand retail chains will be allowed in the metros Delhi, Mumbai, Kolkata and Chennai. In the second phase other metros like Bangalore, Hyderabad and Pune will be included. The draft has laid out strict norms such as earmarking 40 per cent investment for backend infrastructure, such as cold storage, soil testing labs and seed farming, for prospective entrants.

  • The move has paved the much-required way for international retailer like Bentonville, Arkansas-based Wal-Mart Stores Inc. and Paris-based Carrefour SA to open their retail stores through strategic partnerships. According to Business Monitor Intern