retac producer update 10-19-17.pptx [read-only] · 2017. 10. 17. · coal producer update barb...
TRANSCRIPT
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Surface Transportation BoardRETACCoal Producer UpdateBarb Porter, VP Logistics & Market OptimizationArch Coal Sales Company, Inc.October 19th, 2017
1
-
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
2013 2014 2015 2016 2016 YTD Sept 2017 YTD Sept
MILLION TONS
U.S. Production by Basin
CAPP NAPP ILB PRB Other
Source: Energy Information Administration (EIA)
2
-
858.0 851.6
738.4
677.3
299.4 315.1
66.0 66.1 59.7 52.326.4 24.7
0.0
100.0
200.0
300.0
400.0
500.0
600.0
700.0
800.0
900.0
1000.0
2013 2014 2015 2016 2016 YTD June 2017 YTD June
MILLION TONS
U.S Domestic Coal Demand
Power Generation Met/Industrial
Source: Energy Information Administration (EIA)
3
-
51.2
35.4
27.6
18.9
9.9
24.6
65.7
61.6
46.0
40.9
26.5
35.0
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
2013 2014 2015 2016 2016 YTD Aug 2017 YTD Aug
MILLION TONS
Coal Export Demand
Thermal Met
Source: US Census
4
-
$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
$60
$70
$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
$120
$140
$160
$180
THER
MAL
EXP
ORT
PRICES ($/SHORT
TON)
MET
EXP
ORT
PRICES ($/SHORT
TON)
U.S. Coal Export Prices
Met Export Prices Thermal Export Prices
Source: US Census
5
-
6
$6
$7
$8
$9
$10
$11
$12
$13
$14
$15
$30
$50
$70
$90
$110
$130
$150
Jan‐11
Jan‐12
Jan‐13
Jan‐14
Jan‐15
Jan‐16
Jan‐17
Jan‐18
PRB Prices
API2 and
CSX
Pric
es
Thermal U.S. and International Coal Prices
Prompt Month API‐2 $/mt Prompt Month CSX 12,500 $/st Prompt Month PRB 8800 $/st
-
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
Jan‐11 Jan‐12 Jan‐13 Jan‐14 Jan‐15 Jan‐16 Jan‐17 Jan‐18
MILLION TONS
U.S. Total Electric Power Sector Coal Stocks
7
-
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
4.00
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
$/MMBT
U
Monthly Avg Prompt Month Henry Hub Price
2015 2016 2017
Source: Energy Information Administration (EIA)
8
-
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
Jan‐16 Jan‐17 Jan‐18
BCF
U.S. Natural Gas Storage
East Storage Midwest Storage Mountain Storage Pacific Storage South Central Storage 5‐Year Avg
9