results-based monitoring and evaluation in bank projects

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Results-based Monitoring and Evaluation in Bank projects

HD Learning Week. November 6, 2006Jody Zall Kusek & Mohamed Khatouri

World Bank

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Session I- Overview of Results-Based Management Concepts

Traditional Management

ApproachFocused mainly on inputs and activities.

Results-Based Management Approach

Focus on the results obtained rather than just on the inputs used or the activities conducted.

Managing for results. Use the information to improve decision making and steer development interventions towards clearly defined goals.

Results agenda. Focus on development outcomes to be achieved by Bank operations, which requires high quality project design and supervision.

1. Better indicators + Monitoring = Better results

2. High quality Project design (specific focus on outcomes) + High quality implementation = Better results

Which statement is accurate ?

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• Socio- economic context:

Results statement should reflect local needs and priorities

Critical factors for defining results to be achieved

• Resources: Level of resources will impact on what can realistically be achieved

• Local Capacity: Existing skills, leadership, and management capacity will impact on what can be implemented to achieve expected results

• Timetable: Results framework must identify the results (changes) to be achieved in the life of the program


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Principles of Management for Development Results*Principles of Management for Development Results*

Tools for performance measurement to increase the effectiveness of development interventions

* Roundtable on Managing for Results in 2004

1. Focusing the dialogue on results at

all phases of the development process

2. Aligning programming, M&E

with results

5. Using results information for

learning and decision making

4. Managing for, not by, results

3. Keeping measurement &

reporting simple & cost-effective

Results-based M&E


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Ensuring accountability

Improving internal management

Marketing successes

• Results are more important than processes: provide evidence that the program is producing longer term benefits.

• Focusing interventions/reallocating inputs to achieve results. Programs focused are better able to demonstrate results over time.

• Capturing lessons-learned: Showing general program Showing general program progress progress & sharing practices and innovations.

• Preoccupation with results is a global issue : demonstrate results against money spent

Why is Results-Based M&E Important?

• Secure political & public support: “If you can demonstrate results, you can win public support “

• Better reporting: Programs have effective M&E system develop results-oriented reporting

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Regular collection and reporting of information to track whether actual results are being achieved as planned

Clarifies program objectives

Link inputs and activities to results to be achieved

Translates results to be achieved into performance indicators

Periodically collect data on the indicators and compare actual results with target

Reports progress and alerts management to problems in implementation

Indicator

Year

30%

40%

50%

1 2 3 4 5

20 %

Monitor

ing

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Analyses why intended results were or were not achieved

Explores unintended results

Assesses causal contributions of activities to results and validate hypothesis Examines implementation processes

Analytical efforts to answer specific questions about performance of a program activities.

Oriented to answering WHY? And HOW?

Provides lessons learned and recommendations for improvement

With

project

With out

project

Indicator

Year

30%

40%

50%

1 2 3 4 5

15 %

Evaluation


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Outcomes Outputs

Long-term, widespread improvement in society

Effects or behavior changes resulting from program outputs

Products and services to be used to simulate the achievement of results

Utilization of resources to generate products and services

Resources committed to program activities

ImplementationResults

Long-term Goal

(Impact) Activities Inputs

PLANING FOR RESULTS Attribution Gap

Traditional M&E

Results-based M&E


Results Building Blocs

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Social Protection and labor

Increased coverage of crop-insurance programs

Increased % of

vulnerable population

using saftey net programs

Increased population

is food secure

Health

Doctors hired

Health workers trained

Increased use of health clinics

Improved maternal mortality

Education

Teachers trained

Text Books provided

Increased student

completion rates

Increase literacy rates

Examples of Results Chain

Long-Term Goal

(Impact)

Outcomes

Outputs


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1. Information is available for parents about the importance of breast feeding

2. Children in Local Community healthier

3. Fewer children are having diarrhea diseases

4. Mothers Parents breast feeding rather than using formula

5. New funds available to implement a health project to reduce babies mortality rates

6. Implement information campaigns on the importance of breast feeding

Example of Results Chain (Health Sector)

Identify the sequence of inputs, activities, outputs, outcomes, and impacts

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Responsive to Responsive to information management and policy making of government institutions at the central and local level

M&E M&E capacity in placecapacity in place for collecting, for collecting, analyzing, and reporting performance analyzing, and reporting performance informationinformation

Built around Built around reporting requirementsreporting requirements

Active Active involvement of customersinvolvement of customers and and partners (planning, conducting, reviewing, partners (planning, conducting, reviewing, & interpreting performance information)& interpreting performance information)

Fully Fully integrated into integrated into the government’s existing management systemsmanagement systems at the central and local level

Critical Elements of an Effective M&E SystemCritical Elements of an Effective M&E System


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Country’s National Poverty Reduction Strategy (PRSP) Provides a central framework for donor coordination

PRSP Strategic

GoalsOutcomes

Country Assistance Country Assistance Strategy (CAS) to Strategy (CAS) to support the national support the national development development strategystrategy

CAS

Operationalize Operationalize the CASthe CAS

AAA

Policy Dialogue

Operations Projects/Programs

Align Align Projects Projects and and Programs Programs Results Results with with CAS & CAS & PRSP PRSP ResultsResults

Design Logic of Bank OperationsDesign Logic of Bank Operations


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Exercise 1. Develop Results Building Blocs

Assignment

• Break out into groups of 4-5 persons

• Each group should develop a results building bloc (inputs, outputs, outcomes, & impacts) for at least 2 programs. Spend no more than 15 minutes per program

• Select one case to report on in the plenary session.


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Session II- Development of Results Framework

• Identifies the Program Development Objective (PDO) and Intermediate Outcomes which are critical to achieve it

Program’s strategy for achieving specific objective

• Illustrates the development hypothesis and the cause & effect relationships linking all levels of a program’s objectives

(IF a and b happen THEN c should happen)

• Building consensus and ownership

An effective tool for:

• Strategic clarity and planning & managing for results

• Effective communication

Results Framework

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Reduction in the child mortality

1. 1. Determine the key Determine the key

development hypothesis development hypothesis

& its contribution to & its contribution to

higher order impactshigher order impacts

THEN incidence of preventable disease will be

reduced

Causal ChainCausal Chain

Hypothesis. Results are caused by some interventions

IF… THEN IF we build health centers THEN local population will use them to for health services

IF we train teachers on new pedagogic skills THEN teachers will use these skills to improve the quality of education

IF expand child immunizations

Design with clear logicDesign with clear logic

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2. 2. Develop a hierarchy of objectives showing the causal linkagesDevelop a hierarchy of objectives showing the causal linkages

Reduction in Child Mortality

Expanded health care system

Improved nutrition

Provide Funds

Incidence of preventable

disease reduced

Increased immunizations

Increased family health practices

Expand facilities

Public awarenes

s

3. 3. Determine what is possible in the operation (program or project)Determine what is possible in the operation (program or project)

Vaccines availabilit

y

DESIGN. Project success depends on the development of the right activities & assumptions

IMPLEMENTATION. Each part of the results chain has a role to play in achieving the Project Development Objective

Design with clear logic (Cont.)Design with clear logic (Cont.)


Enhance regulations

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Program Development Objective (PDO)

The PDO describes the effect that the program’s outputs will have on the beneficiaries in terms of changed behavior or improved performance. It defines the program’s success.

The PDO outcomes are one step beyond the products of the activities.

At the close of the program, what problem has been solved for the key recipient of the program outputs ?

PDO example: “To achieve improved, expanded, sustainable utilization of basic social and economic services and to support a governance system where local government and communities can gradually become mutually accountable.

Is the PDO precise ?

Focus on the outcome that the project can directly influence, given its duration, resources, and approach

Focus on the expected outcome for the primary beneficiaries

Keep the PDO statement clear, precise, and stated as realistic results— not overly broad or too ambitious

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Example 1: To provide grant financing to educate “at risk” groups in the risks of HIV/AIDS.

Example 2: To increase the awareness of the dangers of HIV/AIDS of “at risk” groups.

Which outcome example describe what is going to be transformed?

PDO Outcomes. Capture single outcome by outcome statement

Example: PDO objectiveTo expand access and improve quality of primary education throughout the country.

Outcomes to be achieved ?

……………… ………………

Program Development Objective (Cont.)


Focus on what is going to be transformed (not what is going to be done)

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Avoid selection of too many indicators Avoid selection of too many indicators Less is Less is Better!Better!

Work with stakeholdersWork with stakeholders and technical experts to and technical experts to determine which indicators are most importantdetermine which indicators are most important

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Information about indicators should be Information about indicators should be easy to easy to gathergather and useful for management decisions and useful for management decisions

Performance indicators should be Performance indicators should be identified at all identified at all levelslevels of results chain. of results chain.

IndicatorIndicator: A variable that provides accurate and : A variable that provides accurate and reliable evidence about the achievement of a reliable evidence about the achievement of a specific result specific result

o ““What gets measured gets doneWhat gets measured gets done””o ““If you don’t measure results, you If you don’t measure results, you

can’t tell success from failure”can’t tell success from failure”

Performance Performance IndicatorsIndicators


20208

SpecificSpecific: : measure as closely as possible what is intended to measure

MMeasurableeasurable:: clear and unambiguous about what is measured

Outcome Indicator

Parents insure that 1.Increased utilization of clinics

Children get treatment for 2. Increased use of malaria

Malaria drugs

Which indicator is more specific ?

2. % of health centers with availability of drugs

1. % of health centers without stock out of drugs x, y & z for more than a week at a time Which indicator is

measurable ?

Performance indicators should bePerformance indicators should be

SMARTSMART::SSpecific; pecific; MMeasurable; easurable; AAttributable; ttributable; RRealistic; ealistic; TTargetedargeted

Criteria for Selecting Good IndicatorsCriteria for Selecting Good Indicators


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2. HIV prevalence among the total

population

1. HIV prevalence among 15-24 year old pregnant

women

1. Percent increase in employment

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RealisticRealistic: : data obtained at reasonable cost with enough frequency Which

indicator is more realistic?

TargetedTargeted: : it should be specific about the targeted population/area

2. Percent increase in employment of graduate of technical training center X in the first year after completion of training.

Which indicator is targeted ?

1. Life expectancy

Attributable: attributable to the project’s or program’s efforts

2. % of children fully immunized at 1 yearWhich indicator is attributable ?

Criteria for Selecting Good Indicators (Cont.)Criteria for Selecting Good Indicators (Cont.)


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PDO Outcomes Outcomes Indicators

Intermediate Outcomes by Component

Intermediate Outcome Indicators

• Increased coverage of clinics providing immuniatio

PDO: Increased use of health facilities

• Improved quality of doctors/nurses

• % of under 5 yr covered by DPT immunization

Component I- Extension of Quality Health Services • % of facilities without 7-day

stock outs of essential drugs (List of essential drugs defined)

• Sustained availability of essential drugs

Component II. Development of Human resources

• Reduced shortage of human resources

• % of facilities with minimum staffing norms (List of minimum staffing defined)

• % of health deliveries carried out in public health facilities (%)


EXAMPLE

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DefinitionDefinition.. Clear and precise definition of Clear and precise definition of what will be measured and unity of what will be measured and unity of measure.measure.

Critical AssumptionsCritical Assumptions.. External factors that could External factors that could significantly affect the achievement of the program significantly affect the achievement of the program results targetsresults targets

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Baseline & TargetsBaseline & Targets Baseline. Value of the indicator at the beginning of the program. Used as a point of comparison when measuring progress toward a specific result

Target values. The intended value of the indicator at the end of a specified point in time, against which actual results will be measured

Data Acquisition MethodData Acquisition Method.. Data source, Data source, frequency/schedule, and responsibility for its collectionfrequency/schedule, and responsibility for its collection

Data Analysis & Reporting MethodData Analysis & Reporting Method.. Frequency/schedule, Analysis method, and responsibility of Frequency/schedule, Analysis method, and responsibility of reporting.reporting.

Each Indicator must have a M&E Each Indicator must have a M&E planplan


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Indicators

(Definition % unit)

Base Line & Target Values (/Year)

BL 1 2 3 4

Data Collection & Reporting

Frequency/Schedule

Instrument (Method)

Responsible Party

• % of health deliveries carried out in public health facilities (%):

25 28 30 35 40 Annually (June)

Routine administrative records

Ministry of Health

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Example of a M&E plan for one indicator


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Impacts

InterventionsInterventions

High level outcomes

Processes, Policies, & OutputsExample:

Provide essential obstetrical health services

Example: Reduced maternal mortality

Intermediate outcomes which the program is expect to influence directly through its defined interventions during the program period.

Intermediate Outcomes

Ways to Improve the development of Results Ways to Improve the development of Results FrameworksFrameworks

Example: Birth attended by skilled staff


2626 Health services provided ( Heath workers trained, Health facilities built & rehabilitated, Pharmaceutical drugs purchased)

Health services provided ( Heath workers trained, Health facilities built & rehabilitated, Pharmaceutical drugs purchased)

Reduced Maternal Mortality

Example: Health Sector

Hygiene and

sanitation practices

Increased use of maternal health

services

Improved access to family planning

Increased adoption of prevention methods

Availability of ITNs

Provision of

contracep-tives and

counseling to women and youth

Increased coverage

of Antenatal, new born, emergency obstetric,

& post-natal care

Improved Communi-

cation networks

& ambulance

s

Information

on family planning available


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Key Informant Interviews

Community Interviews Review of

official records

One-Time Survey

PanelSurveys

Impact Evaluation

(Experimental Design)

Census

Statistical Emphasis

Rigor/Difficulty (Cost/Time/skills)

Focus Group

Interviews

Formal M

ethods

Rapid Appraisal

MethodsDirect

Observation

Validity Reliability Credibility

Choice

depends

1. Issue to be examined 2. Quality of the information needed 3. Time frame in which information is

needed4. Cost

Data Collection Methods


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Key Steps for planning an

Evaluation 1. Clarify the evaluation purpose and

audience2. Identify the evaluation questions

3. Select appropriate methods based on the questions to

answer

a. What % of women using health facilities?

b. Why didn’t more parents send their kids to school?

c. Did the CDD project contribute to the increase in income of local communities?

Example. Which data collection method is more appropriate in providing an answer to each of the following questions?

4. Prepare data collection and analysis

plan


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Design/PAD

• Develop the results framework with SMART indicators

• Develop the M&E plan with baselines & targets

PCN

• Develop causal chain

• Define appropriate PDO and outcomes to be achieved

Completion (ICR)

• Review and validate the causal chain

• Report on the Project outcomes

Implementation (ISR)

- Report on outputs & outcomes

- Adjust project design (as necessary to achieve outcomes)

Focus on outcomes all phase of the project Focus on outcomes all phase of the project cyclecycle


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Assignment Break out into groups of 4-5 person

Review the quality of the PDO statement and its corresponding outcome indicators for 2 projects

Report on one case in the plenary session

Exercise 2.Exercise 2. Assess the quality of the Project Assess the quality of the Project Development Objectives (PDO) & outcome Development Objectives (PDO) & outcome indicators of selected projects indicators of selected projects


results-based monitoring and evaluation in bank projects

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