responses 326 to 554 326 - cornwall council · need of 11,200 units, leaving an immediate shortfall...

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Schedule of Further Significant Changes to the

Cornwall Local Plan – Strategic Policies Proposed Submission (March 2014) and

Schedule of Focused Changes (September 2014)

Representation Form

Consultation – 25th January to 5pm 7th March 2016

Representations can be submitted

by email to:

[email protected]

by post to:

Cornwall Council – Local Plans Team Carrick House St Clement Street Truro TR1 1EB

We are not consulting on the complete Cornwall Local Plan – Strategic Policies, this was done earlier in March 2014 and September 2014. We are consulting on the changes set out in this Schedule of Further Significant Changes proposed to those documents.

All representations should be submitted using this form. Please be as succinct as possible and use a separate box under ‘Question 4’ for each change on which you are commenting.

This form has two parts. Part A asks for your contact details and Part B asks questions for you to consider and gives you the opportunity to make comments.

326Responses 326 to 554

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Part A: Your personal details You must complete Part A for your representations to be accepted. The Council can not accept anonymous representations. Regulation 22 of the Town and Country Planning (Local Planning) (England) Regulations 2012, requires all representations received to be submitted to the Secretary of State. By completing this form and submitting it to the Council you are giving your consent to the processing of personal data by Cornwall Council and that any information received by the Council, including personal data, may be put into the public domain, including on the Council’s website. 1. Personal details. Name Organisation SW HARP Planning Consortium Address line 1 Address line 2 Address line 3 Address line 4 Postcode Telephone number Email address Preferred contact method Email Post 2. Agent details (if applicable). Name Organisation Tetlow King Planning Ltd Address line 1 Address line 2 Address line 3 Address line 4 Postcode Telephone number Email address Preferred contact method Email Q1 Do you wish to be notified of future stages in the Local Plan

including examination and adoption? Yes Part B: Your Representations

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Representations should only relate to the Schedule of Further Significant Changes to the Local Plan. Soundness Paragraph 182 of the National Planning Policy Framework sets out the consideration in relation to a plan being considered ‘sound’:

• Positively prepared • Justified • Effective • Consistent with national policy

Legal compliance For a Local Plan to be considered legally compliant, the following needs to be determined:

• Whether the Local Plan is detailed in the current Local Development Scheme and that the key stages have been followed,

• That community involvement has been carried out in accordance with the current Statement of Community Involvement

• Whether the Local Plan makes satisfactory regard to the Sustainable Community Strategy

• That the Local Plan complies with the Planning and Compulsory Purchase Act 2004 (as amended)

• That the Local Plan complies with the Town and Country Planning (Local Planning) (England) Regulations 2012

• That a Sustainability Appraisal report is published to accompany the Local Plan and is adequate

• That the Habitats Regulations Assessment is carried out in accordance with the Conservation of Habitats and Species Regulations (The Habitats Regulations) 2010

• That the Local Plan has regard to national planning policy • That Section 110 of the Localism Act 2011 (Duty to Co-operate) has

been complied with. Q2 A local planning authority should submit a plan for

examination which it considers to be ‘sound’. Do you consider the Schedule of Further Significant Changes to the Local Plan has met these tests?

Yes No Please specify the reasons below Please see attached letter

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Q3 Do you consider that the Schedule of Further Significant Changes to the Local Plan meets the legal and procedural requirements?

Yes No Please specify the reasons below Please see attached letter

Q4 Please provide any comments on the Further Significant

Changes to the Local Plan – Strategic Policies Please use a separate box for each change and state which number on the schedule your comment refers to. Any additional comments will need to adhere to the same format as set out below. Document Schedule Change Number Cornwall Local Plan – Strategic Policies

Please see attached letter Document Schedule Change Number Cornwall Local Plan – Strategic Policies

Document Schedule Change Number Cornwall Local Plan – Strategic Policies

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Q5 If your representation is seeking a change; do you wish to participate at the examination in public? Please select one option, if you do not select a preference we will assume you do not wish to attend.

No I do not wish to participate at the examination in public

Yes I wish to participate at the examination in public

X

If you select No, your written comments will still be considered by the independent Planning Inspector. Please note the Inspector will determine the most appropriate procedure to adopt to hear those who have indicated that they wish to participate at the oral part of the examination. There is no right to be heard at a hearing session and it is the Inspector who decides who should be heard. Signature S Lewis Date 2/3/16

If you require any assistance in completing this form or require any further explanation as to what is required please contact a member of the local planning team using the email address below or telephoning 01872 224283. Data Protection In complying with the Data Protection Act 1998 Cornwall Council confirms that it will process personal data gathered from this form only for the purposes relating to the consultation. Personal information will be added to the Council’s Local Plan consultation database and will be used to keep you informed of progress with the Local Plan and in order to consult with you further at each stage of the process to enable you to make future comments. Personal information will also be shared with the Government appointed planning inspector (from the Planning Inspectorate), who may wish to contact you to discuss your comments and concerns, prior to formal examination of the Local Plan and supporting documents. Submitting your comments We must receive all responses by 5pm on Monday 7th March 2016. Comments received after this time will not be recorded and will not be considered by the Council. We have set this deadline to ensure that all who wish to take part in this consultation have the same timescale within which to respond.

Chairman Directors R S J Tetlow MSc Dip Surv FRTPI FRICS FCIH FRSA S Hinsley BA (Hons) MRTPI J M Adams BA (Hons) BTP MRTPI Tetlow King Planning Limited J Sneddon BSc (Hons) MRTPI Registered Office Unit 2 Eclipse Office Park High Street Staple Hill Bristol BS16 5EL Registered in England No. 2165802 J Stacey BA (Hons) Dip TP MRTPI Government Approved Constructionline Registered No. 8559

Cornwall Council Date: 2 March 2016 Local Plans Team Carrick House Our Ref: SL M9/0108-13 St Clement Street Truro TR1 1EB

By email only: [email protected]

Dear Sirs RE: CONSULTATION ON PROPOSED FURTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE

CORNWALL LOCAL PLAN We represent the South West HARP Planning Consortium which includes all the leading Housing Association Registered Providers (HARPs) across the South West. Our clients’ principal concern is to optimise the provision of affordable housing and to ensure the evolution and preparation of consistent policies that help deliver the wider economic and social outcomes needed throughout the region. As significant developers and investors in local people, HARPs are well placed to contribute to local plan objectives and act as long term partners in the community. Change Number 15: Policy 2a – Key Targets Full Objectively Assessed Need The Plan increases the proposed housing trajectory to 52,500 new homes to 2030 as proposed by the Council’s own Full Objectively Assessed Need (FOAN) study which establishes a need for 52,263 dwellings. We have particular concerns about the level of affordable housing that has been included within the Council’s FOAN which we discuss below. Table 8 of the Council’s Full Objectively Assessed Need document sets out 1,500 affordable homes should be accounted for within its FOAN. This is an extraordinarily low figure when compared against the overall need for affordable housing as recognised in Table 7. A total need of 30,910 affordable homes has been identified, of which the Council expect to deliver just 19,869 affordable homes, leaving a shortfall of 11,041 affordable homes. This is a considerable gap between the forecasted affordable housing need included in the FOAN and the actual need identified in Table 7. In addition, the 1,500 affordable homes makes up just 2.9% of the Council’s projected FOAN. Paragraph 47 of the National Planning Policy Framework (NPPF) states that to “boost significantly” the supply of housing, Local Planning Authorities should “use their evidence base to ensure that their local plan meets the full, objectively assessed needs for market and affordable housing in the housing market area”. Through the calculation of 1,500 affordable homes within its FOAN, the Plan clearly does not meet the full objectively assessed need for affordable housing. Affordable Housing Delivery & Need in Cornwall Evidence shows that past affordable housing delivery has not been keeping up with need; completions since 2010 show that the Council has not been keeping up with its identified need of 2,240 affordable homes per annum (to make up the identified backlog), as shown in Figure 1. Over the years 2010/11 to 2014/15, a total of 4,130 affordable homes had been built against a cumulative need of 11,200 units, leaving an immediate shortfall of 7,070 affordable homes in 2015/16.

Unit 2 Eclipse Office Park High Street Staple Hill Bristol BS16 5EL

T: 0117 956 1916 E: [email protected] F: 0117 970 1293 W: www.tetlow-king.co.uk

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Other Factors impacting upon the need of Affordable Housing Funding from the HCA has been announced until March 2018, after which time there is no indication of further funding; Cornwall Council needs to work from an assumption that no funding will be available in order to maximise opportunities for delivery. The Council also needs to consider the implications of the extension of Right to Buy to Housing Association tenants. While the intention is that there will be one for one replacement of homes sold under the Right to Buy, the proposed extension could result in considerable housing stock losses in Cornwall without support from the Council for new supply. This needs to be enabled within a two to three year period of disposal, or the compensation received to re-provide homes will be lost. The Right to Buy may increase the overall need for new affordable housing supply. Alongside this, the proposed reforms to affordable housing in the emerging Housing and Planning Bill and NPPF (as set out in a consultation due to close in February 2016) could have significant implications for the figures of need for affordable housing. In particular, proposed changes to the NPPF relate to the delivery of affordable housing on brownfield sites and the proposed broadening of the definition of affordable housing. Though these changes have yet to be made clear these have the potential to significantly alter the range of tenures that could be delivered to meet local needs. Conclusions on Affordable Housing Need The Planning Practice Guidance (PPG) explicitly states that “an increase in the total housing figures included in the Local Plan should be considered where it could help deliver the required number of affordable homes”. In June 2015, the Inspector noted in his Preliminary Findings following the May 2015 hearings that in the existing evidence provided he could not see any “serious, objective consideration, as required by national guidance, as to the scope for further narrowing the gap between identifying need and expected delivery by some increase in market housing”. He added that “this is a matter the Council needs to consider afresh in light of [his] findings on need and delivery”. In light of the new evidence– which highlights a clear shortfall in the delivery of affordable housing in the past and future – it must be concluded that a significant uplift in the Council’s FOAN is necessary. We urge the Council to reconsider the affordable housing figure in its FOAN for new housing from 1,500 affordable homes, and consequently uplift the Local Plan’s overall housing target outlined in Policy 2a by a more substantial figure than currently proposed. This will be more appropriate through establishing an overall target for the delivery of affordable housing. We accept that it is difficult to meet the full scale of needs; however failure to do so will only further embed the significant shortfall in housing to meet local needs and exacerbate the existing challenge of affordability recognised across Cornwall. Change No. 25: Policy 3 Policy Guidance on Policies 8 and 9 The amendments to Policy 3 imply that a sequential approach is to be followed within the provision of affordable housing in the main towns. It sets out that development within the named towns within the policy would provide an appropriate level of affordable housing in accordance with the requirements of Policy 8 “and after requirements are met” this would be through the exceptions approach in Policy 9. This approach is not flexible enough to respond to meeting local needs, especially given the significant shortfall in the projected affordable housing supply. We recommend an amendment to the wording which does imply such a sequential approach, but one that allows for both to take place. Major Development in the AONB The proposed amendment to Policy 3 stating that “major development proposals will not be supported in the AONB” is inappropriate. There is no formal definition of “major development” in relation to development in the AONB in national planning policy. We note the appeal decision at Cogos Park, Mylor Bridge (reference APP/D0840/A/14/2218999, April 2015) for the development of 15 age-restricted dwellings which addressed the issue of major development in the Cornwall AONB. The

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Inspector stated that ‘major’ “should take on its natural meaning and address the development in its context” adding that in his view it is “reasonable to consider the scale of development against the capacity of the local area for development”. An even more recent decision at School Hill, Mevagissey (18 February 2016, reference APP/D0840/W/15/3139301) discussed whether the development of 12 dwellings on low-grade agricultural land in the AONB constituted ‘major’ development. The Inspector noted that “major development in the AONB is a matter of planning judgement for the decision maker”, adding:

“The proposal would result in the introduction of 12 new houses on the edge of the town. The site stands opposite and adjacent to existing built development. Having regard to the existing size of the town and the scale of the proposed development, as well as its relationship with the town and its location in the AONB, I conclude that this would not constitute major development when looked at either in the context of the town or in the context of the wider AONB. It is not therefore necessary for the appellant to demonstrate exceptional circumstances and public interest.” (Paragraph 17)

It is also relevant to note that the NPPF states that major development may be permissible in AONB:

“Planning Permission should be refused for major developments in these designated areas except in exceptional circumstances and where it can be demonstrated they are in the public interest. Consideration of such applications should include an assessment of: • the need for the development, including in terms of any national considerations, and the

impact of permitting it, or refusing it, upon the local economy; • the cost of, and scope for, developing elsewhere outside the designated area, or meeting

the need for it in some other way; and • any detrimental effect on the environment, the landscape and recreational opportunities,

and the extent to which that could be moderated.” (Paragraph 116) It would be more appropriate to reflect the NPPF in stating that major development will not normally be acceptable in the AONB, except in exceptional circumstances and where there is demonstrable public interest, for example in the delivery of much-needed affordable housing. Major development can be designed to ensure that they do not have a negative impact upon the AONB. Our clients are bringing forward schemes in the AONB with significant local support from parish councils and local communities. The Council’s explicit wording is contrary to Government policy, and unhelpful in bringing forward affordable housing to meet local needs that can help sustain rural communities in appropriate locations. In light of relevant appeal decisions and the policy set out in the NPPF we ask the sentence stating that “major development proposals will not be supported” to be removed, or amended to reflect Government policy. We also note an inconsistency in the Schedule of Changes at Change no. 68, which states that proposals for major development in the AONB will be ‘resisted’, differing from Change no. 25 in which proposals are “not supported”. There should be consistency between the policies. Change No. 44: New text after Paragraph 2.15 We support the inclusion concerning the provision of specialist housing for older people on larger schemes. The Private Rented Sector and Student Accommodation We note the inclusion of an additional paragraph concerning the Private Rented Sector (PRS) and Student Accommodation. This paragraph notes that the PRS “offers an alternative to social housing for those that cannot or have no desire to access home ownership” and adds that “new developments can offer opportunities to enhance the provision of good quality, affordable private rented accommodation of a size, tenure and price that will appeal to all residents of the local community, and help rebalance housing stock”.

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The Plan’s reference to “affordable private rented accommodation” is inappropriate. The High Court Case Oadby and Wigston Borough Council vs SoS for CLG and Bloor Homes Ltd (July 2015) confirmed that PRS does not fall within the definition of Affordable Housing. Affordable private rented accommodation is not an appropriate term to use within the context of the Local Plan; at Paragraph 9 of his judgement, Mr Justice Hickinbottom emphasised that PRS does not fall under the relevant definitions set out in the NPPF and the PPG. He added that “as the SHMA itself properly confirms, the benefit-subsidised private rented sector is not affordable housing, which has a particular definition” (Paragraph 34(ii)), and concluded:

“... Mr Leader submitted that the Inspector erred in disregarding the contribution to affordable housing made by the private rental sector. However, for the reasons I have given above ... private rental accommodation is not affordable housing: and the Inspector was entitled to ignore the fact that state-subsidised accommodation in the private rental sector might in practice keep people who would otherwise be accommodated in affordable housing off the streets”. (Paragraph 50)

In light of the above judgement, we urge the council to remove the reference to affordable private rented accommodation in the Local Plan. We note that the above reference to affordable private rented accommodation is repeated in the Council’s Full Objectively Assessed Need document. At the Council’s assessment of its Affordable Housing Need (Stage 1(f), page 22), the document states that:

“...a new affordable home is likely to free up an existing private rented property for another household. This does not deflect from the benefit of providing the affordable housing as different households will have different needs, but highlights that providing an uplift to meet affordable housing need will also provide additional capacity in the private rented sector as part of the overall housing stock.”

The above references to the Private Rented Sector are entirely inappropriate. There cannot be an assumption that more affordable housing will lead to a future provision of privately rented properties. Although guidance from the Planning Advisory Service (PAS) is clear on the ‘musical chairs’ effect, this does not take anything from the substantial shortfall in affordable housing supply which will still need to be met. The PRS is not an acceptable alternative for future affordable housing. People wishing to build their own homes We are concerned by the additional text about the reference to self-build plots being provided as part of the affordable housing provided by developers. It is likely that this type of product will appeal to, and be financially accessible to a minority of people looking for affordable housing. This policy should not reduce the overall level of affordable housing that is delivered to RPs on individual schemes, or be used by developers as a way of avoiding delivery of completed affordable homes. Change No. 60: Policy 8 – Affordable Housing Our Hearing Statement (respondent no. 326) on Issue 3 noted that the requirement in Policy 8 for intermediate housing to be available at first and subsequent occupation “at a price which is affordable to a typical local household” is excessive. We maintain this view as it is inconsistent with national planning policy, which requires only “provisions to remain at an affordable price for housing provision or for the subsidy to be recycled for alternative affordable housing provision”. This definition should be followed as it allows greater flexibility for affordable housing providers and also ensures those properties are mortgageable. Change No. 63: Rural Exception Sites We support the general amendments to this paragraph. We do however recommend that the policy should make clear that the inclusion of open market housing would not be acceptable if it results in an increase in the land value above what would be expected for a 100% affordable housing scheme.

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Representation Form



by email to:

[email protected]

by post to:





396

2

Part A: Your personal details You must complete Part A for your representations to be accepted. The Council can not accept anonymous representations. Regulation 22 of the Town and Country Planning (Local Planning) (England) Regulations 2012, requires all representations received to be submitted to the Secretary of State. By completing this form and submitting it to the Council you are giving your consent to the processing of personal data by Cornwall Council and that any information received by the Council, including personal data, may be put into the public domain, including on the Council’s website. 1. Personal details. Name Mark Buddle Organisation For and on behalf of the owners of land

to the rear of 26 New Road, Troon Address line 1 Address line 2 Address line 3 Address line 4 Postcode Telephone number Email address Preferred contact method Email Post 2. Agent details (if applicable). Name Organisation Address line 1 Address line 2 Address line 3 Address line 4 Postcode Telephone number Email address Preferred contact method Email Post Q1 Do you wish to be notified of future stages in the Local Plan

including examination and adoption? Yes No

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Part B: Your Representations Representations should only relate to the Schedule of Further Significant Changes to the Local Plan. Soundness Paragraph 182 of the National Planning Policy Framework sets out the consideration in relation to a plan being considered ‘sound’:













Yes No Please specify the reasons below

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Yes No Please specify the reasons below



Change Number 15, Policy 2a & Change Number 26, Table 1

In general, we support the increase in housing units identified within new Policy 2a and at Table 1. In particular, we support the increase in housing numbers in the residual area of CPR, but once again we still believe this figure falls short of the numbers required to support actual housing demand in this area. Furthermore, there should be a more dispersed strategy for the allocation of housing numbers between the towns of Camborne, Pool and Redruth and the larger villages within the network area (for example Troon). New housing is needed in larger villages to meet housing need and support the vitality and viability of the services offered in these areas. Document Schedule Change Number Cornwall Local Plan – Strategic Policies

Change Number 23, Para1.37

We do not support the fact that there will be a two year delay before the Council will prepare a site allocations document to support the delivery of the targets set out in the Local Plan. There is no guarantee that a Neighbourhood Plan will be produced and, therefore, good sensible planning should not be put on hold while the Council waits to see if a Neighbourhood Plan is produced. A site allocations document should be prepared as soon as the Local Plan is adopted and, if necessary, a Neighbourhood Plan should sit alongside both the Local Plan and a Site Allocations DPD. A delay of two years will actually result in a far greater delay as it will take at least a year (or more) to prepare and adopt a Site Allocations DPD. This

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could severely test the Council’s requirement to provide a 5 year land supply if no sites can realistically be brought forward within this timescale. Document Schedule Change Number Cornwall Local Plan – Strategic Policies

Change Number 58, Figure 2 and Change Number 60, Policy 8

We support the introduction of viability zones for determination of the appropriate affordable housing percentage. In particular, we support the recognition that the CPR area should have an affordable housing percentage of 25%. Q5 If your representation is seeking a change; do you wish to

participate at the examination in public? Please select one option, if you do not select a preference we will assume you do not wish to attend.



If you select No, your written comments will still be considered by the independent Planning Inspector. Please note the Inspector will determine the most appropriate procedure to adopt to hear those who have indicated that they wish to participate at the oral part of the examination. There is no right to be heard at a hearing session and it is the Inspector who decides who should be heard. Signature

Date 6.3.16

For and on behalf of the owners of land to the rear of 26 New Road, Troon

If you require any assistance in completing this form or require any further explanation as to what is required please contact a member of the local planning team using the email address below or telephoning 01872 224283. Data Protection In complying with the Data Protection Act 1998 Cornwall Council confirms that it will process personal data gathered from this form only for the purposes relating to the consultation. Personal information will be added to the Council’s Local Plan consultation database and will be used to keep you informed of progress with the Local Plan and in order to consult with you further at each stage of the process to enable you to make future comments.

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Personal information will also be shared with the Government appointed planning inspector (from the Planning Inspectorate), who may wish to contact you to discuss your comments and concerns, prior to formal examination of the Local Plan and supporting documents. Submitting your comments We must receive all responses by 5pm on Monday 7th March 2016. Comments received after this time will not be recorded and will not be considered by the Council. We have set this deadline to ensure that all who wish to take part in this consultation have the same timescale within which to respond.

1




Representation Form



by email to:

[email protected]

by post to:





426

2

Part A: Your personal details You must complete Part A for your representations to be accepted. The Council can not accept anonymous representations. Regulation 22 of the Town and Country Planning (Local Planning) (England) Regulations 2012, requires all representations received to be submitted to the Secretary of State. By completing this form and submitting it to the Council you are giving your consent to the processing of personal data by Cornwall Council and that any information received by the Council, including personal data, may be put into the public domain, including on the Council’s website. 1. Personal details. Name Sue Lemon – Clerk Organisation Calstock Parish Council Address line 1 Address line 2 Address line 3 Address line 4 Postcode Telephone number Email address Preferred contact method Email Post 2. Agent details (if applicable). Name Organisation Address line 1 Address line 2 Address line 3 Address line 4 Postcode Telephone number Email address Preferred contact method Email Post Q1 Do you wish to be notified of future stages in the Local Plan

including examination and adoption? Yes No

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Yes No Please specify the reasons below Calstock Parish Council considers the plan to be sound, as defined in your bullet points listed above.

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Q3 Do you consider that the Schedule of Further Significant

Changes to the Local Plan meets the legal and procedural requirements?

Yes No Please specify the reasons below We do not feel that the Parish Council is competent enough to comment on the legalities of the Local Plan



7 (and throughout)

For clarity, could the AONB be AONBs so that it is clear that it is referring to all AONBs in the county Document Schedule Change Number Cornwall Local Plan – Strategic Policies

8 (page 9)

To include sustainable tourism in the Tamar Valley as part of those listed Document Schedule Change Number Cornwall Local Plan – Strategic Policies

8 (page 10)

Calstock Parish Council considers the A390 to be an essential travel link connecting many towns and villages across the county and should be included in the roads identified. Also that the Tamar Valley Railway Line as far as Gunnislake should also be secured and included in the Plan. Document Schedule Change Number Cornwall Local Plan – Strategic Policies

10a (page 12)

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For clarity: change coast and land to coastal waters and land Document Schedule Change Number Cornwall Local Plan – Strategic Policies

13 (page 18)

We would like the Tamar Valley rail line to be identified specifically in the plan stressing its importance in supporting economic development in South East Cornwall by providing sustainable access for all to employment/economic opportunities in the Plymouth area, and a direct connection to the Penzance London main line. Document Schedule Change Number Cornwall Local Plan – Strategic Policies

46 (page 51)

Preferred wording would be: New housing development of 10 dwellings or more must [normally] include an appropriate mix of houses sizes…. Document Schedule Change Number Cornwall Local Plan – Strategic Policies

96 (page 84)

The catchment area for this policy should be widened to include any development that could or is likely to adversely affect an AQMA, i.e. so that it is not solely the AQMA zone that is included. Document Schedule Change Number Cornwall Local Plan – Strategic Policies

113b (page 96)

Remove the word ‘contaminated’ altogether from the sentence using despoiled, degraded, derelict and contaminated land provided that it is not of high environmental or historic value… The Parish Council feels that the best and safest way to deal with contaminated land is not to disturb it, unless the contamination is harmless in its scale or nature.

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We must receive all responses by 5pm on Monday 7th March 2016. Comments received after this time will not be recorded and will not be considered by the Council. We have set this deadline to ensure that all who wish to take part in this consultation have the same timescale within which to respond.

1




Representation Form



by email to:

[email protected]

by post to:





484

mailto:[email protected]

2

Part A: Your personal details You must complete Part A for your representations to be accepted. The Council can not accept anonymous representations. Regulation 22 of the Town and Country Planning (Local Planning) (England) Regulations 2012, requires all representations received to be submitted to the Secretary of State. By completing this form and submitting it to the Council you are giving your consent to the processing of personal data by Cornwall Council and that any information received by the Council, including personal data, may be put into the public domain, including on the Council’s website. 1. Personal details. Name W R & D P Rogers Organisation Address line 1 Address line 2 Address line 3 Address line 4 Postcode Telephone number Email address Preferred contact method Email Post √ 2. Agent details (if applicable). Name Not applicable Organisation Address line 1 Address line 2 Address line 3 Address line 4 Postcode Telephone number Email address Preferred contact method Email Post Q1 Do you wish to be notified of future stages in the Local Plan

including examination and adoption? Yes Yes No

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Yes

No X Please specify the reasons below Launceston development framework draft document has not been utilised within this document. Any reference to residential or residents has not been used within Energy preamble or Policy.

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Yes

No X Please specify the reasons below PP14 Launceston Community Network Key Fact-2007 Information requires updating



200

Agree subject to the draft LDF – as submitted – supports the deletion of KUE2 as an option for industrial use. Reason – The area of land does not adjoin the Pennygillam Industrial Estate. The unclassified road network cannot support industrial traffic without major road improvements. Residential properties already bare the brunt of noise and air pollution from the increasing traffic on the A30 thus development would be to the detriment and well being of residential properties. Document Schedule Change Number Cornwall Local Plan – Strategic Policies

201

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The draft LDF as already submitted to Cornwall council has not been followed through. Document Schedule Change Number Cornwall Local Plan – Strategic Policies

202


203


95

Object 2.62 states that the council will not be allocating sites for development but this appears contradictory to the wording of the Policy 15 Policy 15 supports the visual appearance of an area but omits any reference to residential properties and the quality and well being of residents within turbine areas. The same applies to non domestic solar panels installations. We see no reference to non domestic bio boiler installations in premises on industrial estates. Residential properties within close proximity to such installations should be safeguarded from air pollution. Such installations can and do cause air pollution due to lack of air quality control.

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Q5 If your representation is seeking a change; do you wish to




x

If you select No, your written comments will still be considered by the independent Planning Inspector. Please note the Inspector will determine the most appropriate procedure to adopt to hear those who have indicated that they wish to participate at the oral part of the examination. There is no right to be heard at a hearing session and it is the Inspector who decides who should be heard. Signature W.R & Mrs D P Rogers Date 6/3/2016 If you require any assistance in completing this form or require any further explanation as to what is required please contact a member of the local planning team using the email address below or telephoning 01872 224283. Data Protection In complying with the Data Protection Act 1998 Cornwall Council confirms that it will process personal data gathered from this form only for the purposes relating to the consultation. Personal information will be added to the Council’s Local Plan consultation database and will be used to keep you informed of progress with the Local Plan and in order to consult with you further at each stage of the process to enable you to make future comments. Personal information will also be shared with the Government appointed planning inspector (from the Planning Inspectorate), who may wish to contact you to discuss your comments and concerns, prior to formal examination of the Local Plan and supporting documents. Submitting your comments We must receive all responses by 5pm on Monday 7th March 2016. Comments received after this time will not be recorded and will not be considered by the Council. We have set this deadline to ensure that all who wish to take part in this consultation have the same timescale within which to respond.

1




Representation Form



by email to:

[email protected]

by post to:





497

2

Part A: Your personal details You must complete Part A for your representations to be accepted. The Council can not accept anonymous representations. Regulation 22 of the Town and Country Planning (Local Planning) (England) Regulations 2012, requires all representations received to be submitted to the Secretary of State. By completing this form and submitting it to the Council you are giving your consent to the processing of personal data by Cornwall Council and that any information received by the Council, including personal data, may be put into the public domain, including on the Council’s website. 1. Personal details. Name Cheryl Marriott Organisation Cornwall Wildlife Trust Address line 1 Address line 2 Address line 3 Address line 4 Postcode Telephone number Email address Preferred contact method

Email x Post

2. Agent details (if applicable). Name Organisation Address line 1 Address line 2 Address line 3 Address line 4 Postcode Telephone number Email address Preferred contact method Email Post Q1 Do you wish to be notified of future stages in the Local Plan

including examination and adoption? Yes x No

3














Yes No Please specify the reasons below We do not feel in a position to answer this since it goes beyond our recognised area of expertise.

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Yes No Please specify the reasons below We do not feel in a position to answer this since it goes beyond our recognised area of expertise.


Changes to the Local Plan – Strategic Policies Please use a separate box for each change and state which number on the schedule your comment refers to. Any additional comments will need to adhere to the same format as set out below. Document Schedule Change Number 13 Cornwall Local Plan – Strategic Policies

Pg 13 policy 2.3.lii

Text in document says: l. Optimising the economic opportunity and maximising existing linkages in mid-Cornwall by: i. supporting the role of Bodmin as a strategic employment location taking advantage of its position on the transport network; ii. identifying mixed use development to deliver the ecocommunity at West Carclaze / Baal and Par Docks, to help deliver an exemplar development that provides a showcase for sustainable, greener, low carbon living; Our comment: We refute the claim in ii. that the planned eco-community will deliver an exemplar development that is sustainable. The West Carclaze/Baal proposals include building on a site designated as a County Wildlife Site. Stating in a policy that this will be ‘sustainable’ pre-judges the detailed planning application. Many nature conservation organisations objected previously to the West Carclaze/Baal proposals as we did not think it was a sustainable development, nor in line with section 118 of the NPPF. We would like the extra detail added to be removed as it would seem to be pushing for economic development over environmental protection and enhancement, rather than it being a balanced, 3-pillar approach. Given the importance of Cornwall’s environment to the

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economy we feel this is setting a damaging precedent about the hierarchy of economic growth over environmental growth, which would be a backward step for Cornwall. Document Schedule Change Number 17 Cornwall Local Plan – Strategic Policies

Pg 25 Policy 3.2

Re. West Carclaze and Baal. It is still not clear to us whether this site can deliver a net gain for biodiversity, and whether the County Wildlife Site can be protected and enhanced as part of the development. Previous consultations suggest it is not a sustainable site for development. With this in mind we do not feel that it should be included here as if the development is a certainty. Material considerations and NPPF policies may not be met. Cornwall Council could be setting itself up to fail on the delivery of this site. Also there is no bullet point about enabling a net gain of biodiversity on the site, despite it being designated. Is there any contingency allocation for the 1,200 homes planned for West Carclaze and Baal? This is a risk to the deliverability of the housing allocation. Document Schedule Change Number 49 Cornwall Local Plan – Strategic Policies

Pg 121 2.103

Existing text reads with proposed changes reads as follows: Biodiversity and Geodiversity: Planning applications which have the potential to impact on biodiversity and geodiversity (including Sites of Importance for Nature Conservation (SINC), Local Nature Reserves (LNR), Regionally Important Geological/Geomorphological Sites (RIGs), and habitats of species of principal importance for biodiversity) will need to be accompanied by ecological which incorporates appropriate ecological surveys. which incorporate a biodiversity impact assessment, Ecological surveys need to describe describing the biodiversity interest of the site and the nature and extent of any impact of the proposed development, They should outline any mitigation measures and the steps to be taken to retain, incorporate, protect, enhance and where appropriate manage the biodiversity interest, as part of the proposals. Nomenclature of Local Sites is wrong (SINC and RIGS not been used in Cornwall for several years) and there are typos. Suggest following corrections:

6

Biodiversity and Geodiversity: Planning applications which have the potential to impact on biodiversity and geodiversity (including County Wildlife Sites (CWSs), Local Nature Reserves (LNR), County Geology Sites (CGSs) and habitats or species of principal importance for biodiversity) will need to be accompanied by ecological statements which incorporates appropriate ecological surveys and. which incorporate a biodiversity impact assessment,. Ecological surveys need to describe describing the biodiversity interest of the site and the nature and extent of any impact of the proposed development,. They should outline any mitigation measures and the steps to be taken to retain, incorporate, protect, enhance and where appropriate manage the biodiversity interest, as part of the proposals. Document Schedule Change Number 49 Cornwall Local Plan – Strategic Policies

Pg 122 Policy 23

Currently reads: a. b. features and locally designated sites of biological or geological interest (including Biodiversity Action Plan habitats and species, and soils SINCs and RIGS), are conserved, protected and enhanced and there is or full provision for their appropriate restoration, recreation and management, and that priority species are protected and recovered. Our comments: SINCs and RIGs are no longer used as terms in Cornwall, should be CWSs and CGSs. We strongly disagree with change of wording from ‘and there is’ to ‘or full’. This implies it is OK to destroy a site as long as it is later restored, the so-called ‘licence to trash’. We wish the wording to revert back to the previous version. No justification is given for the change and it is likely to contradict policies in the rest of the document, the NPPF and lead to other material considerations not being met. Document Schedule Change Number 53 Cornwall Local Plan – Strategic Policies

Pg 122 policy 2.109

In last paragraph, ‘providing buffers from development’ has been replaced with ‘providing sensitive responses to development. The justification says this is to improve clarity. We do not understand

7

what is meant by ‘sensitive responses to’ so feel this change has reduced clarity rather than improved and the change should not be made. Document Schedule Change Number Montoring plan Cornwall Local Plan – Strategic Policies

Page 183

Section 23.1- A whole indicator has been removed without explanation. We would suggest just using Local Sites for this indicator (CWSs and CGSs)to simplify it and make it more meaningful. We do not support complete removal as we feel this indicator is the most meaningful of those listed for policy 23. Document Schedule Change Number Cornwall Local Plan – Strategic Policies


8




If you select No, your written comments will still be considered by the independent Planning Inspector. Please note the Inspector will determine the most appropriate procedure to adopt to hear those who have indicated that they wish to participate at the oral part of the examination. There is no right to be heard at a hearing session and it is the Inspector who decides who should be heard. Signature Date


1




Representation Form



by email to:

[email protected]

by post to:





525

2

Part A: Your personal details You must complete Part A for your representations to be accepted. The Council can not accept anonymous representations. Regulation 22 of the Town and Country Planning (Local Planning) (England) Regulations 2012, requires all representations received to be submitted to the Secretary of State. By completing this form and submitting it to the Council you are giving your consent to the processing of personal data by Cornwall Council and that any information received by the Council, including personal data, may be put into the public domain, including on the Council’s website. 1. Personal details. Name Harold Tinworth Organisation CPRE Cornwall Address line 1 Address line 2 Address line 3 Address line 4 Postcode Telephone number Email address Preferred contact method Email X Post 2. Agent details (if applicable). Name Organisation Address line 1 Address line 2 Address line 3 Address line 4 Postcode Telephone number Email address Preferred contact method Email Post Q1 Do you wish to be notified of future stages in the Local Plan

including examination and adoption? Yes X No

3














Yes

No X Please specify the reasons below We believe that the plan as it currently stands is not ‘justified’ in positing an additional 52,500 houses for Cornwall as the methodology used to calculate this figure is flawed: Read http://www.cpre.org.uk/resources/housing-and-planning/housing/item/4145-smarter-shmas-a-review-of-objectively-assessed-need-in-england The council should actively challenge the Government and planning inspector on this point before adopting a local plan.

4

We also believe that the plan will not be effective in protecting our natural assets outside of designated areas as there is no robust brownfield first policy included. Furthermore, we think the over reliance on the Homechoice Housing Register fails to reflect the true need for affordable housing in Cornwall and a new study should be conducted. Q3 Do you consider that the Schedule of Further Significant


Yes No Please specify the reasons below No comment.



5

To include, at the end of the first sentence: “unless, or where these plans undermine or conflict with our commitment to sustainable development.” If Cornwall’s economic development strategy is to be closely modelled on that of the LEP then there should be a requirement for the LEP to become democratically accountable as to its use of public funds and decision-making. Document Schedule Change Number Cornwall Local Plan – Strategic Policies

7

We agree that designated areas need additional protection however care should be taken to avoid this being interpreted as meaning the rest of the county without designated status is therefore open for development.

5

Should include: “A target should be set for the amount of housing to be built on previously developed land – 65% of the total number of new housing units proposed in the Local Plan, which is 65% of 52,500, should be built on previously developed land.” Should include: “Cornwall Council will complete a full audit of all previously developed land in the county which will be reviewed on an annual basis to allow for the changing availability of land and buildings in this category. This will include an audit of previously developed land and buildings within urban areas for potential change of use. This audit will be published as part of a brownfield register. This annual register will also include an updated assessment of how the brownfield policy and target can be achieved and what steps and/or policy mechanisms the council will introduce to make brownfield land that is suitable for development ready for development e.g. infrastructure support, remediation etc. It will also clearly demonstrate what has been achieved in the previous year.” Should include: “Developers will be required to maximise previously developed land that is suitable – or can be made suitable - and build on these sites first, before permission to build on green field sites is considered.” Cornwall Council should develop and publish a set of ‘brownfield first’ proposals as a priority, and publish the methodology used to identify these sites as part of the brownfield register (above). The council should promote the availability of brownfield sites to developers. The council’s empty properties strategy should also be updated and incorporated into the Local Plan. Document Schedule Change Number Cornwall Local Plan – Strategic Policies

9

Wording needs to be adjusted to show that the council recognise that neighbourhood planning in Cornwall needs more support, beyond training workshops, to deliver. Whilst welcome, the workshops will not help overcome the lack of specialist knowledge or funding issues that parish and town councils are struggling with as they try to complete their neighbourhood plans. Cornwall Council cannot say that neighbourhood plans will ‘provide an appropriate planning framework within this strategic framework’ when there are currently only three approved neighbourhood plans in place. Document Schedule Change Number Cornwall Local Plan – Strategic Policies

10a

6

See response to schedule change number 7, above Document Schedule Change Number Cornwall Local Plan – Strategic Policies

15

We do not accept the methodology used to arrive at the figure of 52,500 homes. Please refer to the following: Cornwall Unitary Authority Examination in Public Local Plan 2011 to 2030; HS1.04 Issue 1; CPRE Cornwall re. Number 525 and, http://www.cpre.org.uk/resources/housing-and-planning/housing/item/4158-set-up-to-fail-why-housing-targets-based-on-flawed-numbers-threaten-our-countryside Document Schedule Change Number Cornwall Local Plan – Strategic Policies

17

Last paragraph needs more clarity. Currently it is not clear whether it means:

1. ‘Where Neighbourhood Plans have not been prepared’ development in that parish/Town council area will be monitored to see if it is meeting ‘required’ or ‘allocated’ development, or,

2. ‘Where Neighbourhood Plans have not been prepared’ development in the whole CNA will be monitored….


23

The council should set out and make proactively available details of what its ‘commitment to supporting the development of Neighbourhood Plans’ means. What are they providing parishes and town councils with? Without facilitating the development and delivery of neighbourhood plans more comprehensively it is wrong of Cornwall Council to impose development allocations onto parishes and towns. Cornwall Council should

7

invest in genuinely supporting parishes and towns to produce their neighbourhood plans – training and advice is only one strand. Expert planners, solicitors and others should be made available at low or no cost to ensure that all parishes and towns have a neighbourhood plan in place within the next two years so there is no ‘requirement’ for Cornwall Council to impose site allocations onto settlements. Document Schedule Change Number Cornwall Local Plan – Strategic Policies

40

Needs to reference the requirements to meet sustainable development criteria in this section. The phrase ‘flexibility is crucial for the delivery of economic growth’ should be removed as it infers that sustainable development requirements are flexible rather than necessary. Document Schedule Change Number Cornwall Local Plan – Strategic Policies

42

Migration rates and building rates are treated as interchangeable. Migration rates are difficult to measure and for Cornwall, should not depend on the relatively short growth years for measurement and projection. Document Schedule Change Number Cornwall Local Plan – Strategic Policies

43

Agree but also insert reference to the required use of Cornwall’s Design Guide for new developments. Document Schedule Change Number Cornwall Local Plan – Strategic Policies

44

This policy is reliant on neighbourhood plans helping to inform the types and mix of new housing which is a problem when there are only three

8

neighbourhood plans in existence within Cornwall. The council should commission research to accurately predict the true affordable need requirement in Cornwall, especially as there is little to no confidence in the current Homechoice Register approach. More up-to-date work such as that by Professor Glen Bramley should be considered. Document Schedule Change Number Cornwall Local Plan – Strategic Policies

61

It is not acceptable to extend settlement boundaries for local needs housing when there is no neighbourhood plan in place to determine what local needs housing numbers truly are. There should be a requirement for local needs surveys based on comprehensive consultation with a settlement’s inhabitants (not just with the parish or town council) for any proposal to extend a settlement’s boundaries if no neighbourhood plan is in place and the council should be required to demonstrate how it has worked with a settlement to support the development of a neighbourhood plan before bringing any proposal forward. Document Schedule Change Number Cornwall Local Plan – Strategic Policies

62

Refer to schedule change number 61 (above). Document Schedule Change Number Cornwall Local Plan – Strategic Policies

66

To reinsert the text “had community support” and make clear how this will be determined. This is important for settlements with no neighbourhood plan or the capability to deliver one, and without it’s inclusion it also makes a mockery of the neighbourhood planning process.

9


67

Further clarity and definition required as to what circumstances and local need will be under consideration here. Document Schedule Change Number Cornwall Local Plan – Strategic Policies

69

Re-insert point iii. Refer to schedule change number 44 (above). Document Schedule Change Number Cornwall Local Plan – Strategic Policies

73

This approach is in danger of enabling developers to build unsuitable housing that does not meet local need in areas that they would otherwise not be allowed to build within. There needs to be more safeguards built in to ensure that developer’s cannot continue to ‘cry-off’ on the level of affordable housing within a development because of a ‘change’ in costs of delivery, which amounts to a form of blackmail of the council. If a developer argues that the level of affordable housing agreed to is no longer viable then planning permission should be revoked and other options explored. Document Schedule Change Number Cornwall Local Plan – Strategic Policies

91

Point 6 should include a recognised standard for efficiency that new developments are meant to reach or it will not be possible to measure. New homes must be sustainable in the long-term and Cornwall should strive to deliver better than the accepted minimum standards on energy efficiency and heating. Again, good design principles must be adopted.

10


112

Refer to schedule change number 7 (above) Document Schedule Change Number Cornwall Local Plan – Strategic Policies

136

Delete point 7 on the basis that new developments cannot outweigh existing ecosystems and their needs. With the reality of climate change already altering our natural environment and causing loss of species and habitats, the council should prioritise protecting existing natural habitat and ecosystems intact and not place them under further pressure. Document Schedule Change Number Cornwall Local Plan – Strategic Policies

143

Point 3: council to provide evidence of how it believes ‘biodiversity off-setting’ works in practice and how it will monitor this to measure the long-term results of projects that secure this investment measured against the loss of the original site bio-diversity as projected into that timeframe.

1




Representation Form



by email to:

[email protected]

by post to:





527

2

Part A: Your personal details You must complete Part A for your representations to be accepted. The Council can not accept anonymous representations. Regulation 22 of the Town and Country Planning (Local Planning) (England) Regulations 2012, requires all representations received to be submitted to the Secretary of State. By completing this form and submitting it to the Council you are giving your consent to the processing of personal data by Cornwall Council and that any information received by the Council, including personal data, may be put into the public domain, including on the Council’s website. 1. Personal details. Name Mrs Julie Larter Organisation Pentewan Valley Parish Council Address line 1 Address line 2 Address line 3 Address line 4 Postcode Telephone number Email address Preferred contact method Email x Post 2. Agent details (if applicable). Name Organisation Address line 1 Address line 2 Address line 3 Address line 4 Postcode Telephone number Email address Preferred contact method Email Post Q1 Do you wish to be notified of future stages in the Local Plan

including examination and adoption? Yes Yes No

3














Yes Yes No Please specify the reasons below

4



Yes Yes No Please specify the reasons below



Policy 2

Page 16 – Spacial Strategy 4th and final sentence of the 1st paragraph we would like the words “seek to” removed and the sentence to read “Overall, development should meet the following objectives of the Plan for Cornwall” Document Schedule Change Number Cornwall Local Plan – Strategic Policies


5






7



X


If you select No, your written comments will still be considered by the independent Planning Inspector. Please note the Inspector will determine the most appropriate procedure to adopt to hear those who have indicated that they wish to participate at the oral part of the examination. There is no right to be heard at a hearing session and it is the Inspector who decides who should be heard. Signature Julie Larter Date 22/02/2016



Cornwall Local Plan – Strategic Policies Proposed Submission (March 2014) and Schedule

of Focused Changes (September 2014)

Representation Form



by email to:

[email protected]

by post to:





529

Part A: Your personal details You must complete Part A for your representations to be accepted. The Council can not accept anonymous representations. Regulation 22 of the Town and Country Planning (Local Planning) (England) Regulations 2012, requires all representations received to be submitted to the Secretary of State. By completing this form and submitting it to the Council you are giving your consent to the processing of personal data by Cornwall Council and that any information received by the Council, including personal data, may be put into the public domain, including on the Council’s website. 1. Personal details.

Name nick heather Organisation Address line 1 Address line 2 Address line 3 Address line 4 Postcode Telephone number Email address Preferred contact method Email Post 2. Agent details (if applicable).

Name Organisation Address line 1 Address line 2 Address line 3 Address line 4 Postcode Telephone number Email address Preferred contact method Email Post

Q1 Do you wish to be notified of future stages in the Local Plan including examination and adoption? Yes No Part B: Your Representations Representations should only relate to the Schedule of Further Significant Changes to the Local Plan. Soundness Paragraph 182 of the National Planning Policy Framework sets out the consideration in relation to a plan being considered ‘sound’: • Positively prepared • Justified • Effective • Consistent with national policy Legal compliance For a Local Plan to be considered legally compliant, the following needs to be determined: • Whether the Local Plan is detailed in the current Local Development Scheme and that the key stages have been followed, • That community involvement has been carried out in accordance with the current Statement of Community Involvement • Whether the Local Plan makes satisfactory regard to the Sustainable Community Strategy • That the Local Plan complies with the Planning and Compulsory Purchase Act 2004 (as amended) • That the Local Plan complies with the Town and Country Planning (Local Planning) (England) Regulations 2012 • That a Sustainability Appraisal report is published to accompany the Local Plan and is adequate • That the Habitats Regulations Assessment is carried out in accordance with the Conservation of Habitats and Species Regulations (The Habitats Regulations) 2010 • That the Local Plan has regard to national planning policy • That Section 110 of the Localism Act 2011 (Duty to Co-operate) has been complied with. Q2 A local planning authority should submit a plan for examination which it considers to be ‘sound’. Do you consider the Schedule of Further Significant Changes to the Local Plan has met these tests? No

Please specify the reasons below

See below Q3 Do you consider that the Schedule of Further Significant Changes to the Local Plan meets the legal and procedural requirements? Yes No Please specify the reasons below Q4 Please provide any comments on the Further Significant Changes to the Local Plan – Strategic Policies Please use a separate box for each change and state which number on the schedule your comment refers to. Any additional comments will need to adhere to the same format as set out below.


2a

I object to Policy 2a on the basis that development on this scale is completely unsustainable, and unsupported by reliable data. The environmental, ecological and cultural effects will be catastrophic, and the economic argument is not persusive.




X


If you select No, your written comments will still be considered by the independent Planning Inspector. Please note the Inspector will determine the most appropriate procedure to adopt to hear those who have indicated that they wish to participate at the oral part of the examination. There is no right to be heard at a hearing session and it is the Inspector who decides who should be heard.

Signature nick heather Date 07/03.16 If you require any assistance in completing this form or require any further explanation as to what is required please contact a member of the local planning team using the email address below or telephoning 01872 224283. Data Protection In complying with the Data Protection Act 1998 Cornwall Council confirms that it will process personal data gathered from this form only for the purposes relating to the consultation. Personal information will be added to the Council’s Local Plan consultation database and will be used to keep you informed of progress with the Local Plan and in order to consult with you further at each stage of the process to enable you to make future comments. Personal information will also be shared with the Government appointed planning inspector (from the Planning Inspectorate), who may wish to contact you to discuss your comments and concerns, prior to formal examination of the Local Plan and supporting documents. Submitting your comments We must receive all responses by 5pm on Monday 7th March 2016. Comments received after this time will not be recorded and will not be considered by the Council. We have set this deadline to ensure that all who wish to take part in this consultation have the same timescale within which to respond.



Schedule of Focused Changes (September2014)

Representation Form



by email to:

[email protected]

by post to:

Cornwall Council – Local Plans TeamCarrick HouseSt Clement StreetTruroTR1 1EB


All representations should be submitted using this form.Please be as succinct as possible and use a separate box under ‘Question 4’ for each change on which you are commenting.


1

541

Part A: Your personal details

You must complete Part A for your representations to be accepted. The Council can not accept anonymous representations.

Regulation 22 of the Town and Country Planning (Local Planning) (England) Regulations 2012, requires all representations received to be submitted to the Secretary of State. By completing this form and submitting it to the Council you are giving your consent to the processing of personal data by Cornwall Council and that any information received by the Council, including personal data, may be put into the public domain, including on the Council’s website.

1. Personal details.

Name Peter WyperOrganisationAddress line 1Address line 2Address line 3Address line 4PostcodeTelephone numberEmail addressPreferred contact method Email yes Post

2. Agent details (if applicable).

NameOrganisationAddress line 1Address line 2Address line 3Address line 4PostcodeTelephone numberEmail addressPreferred contact method Email Post

Q1 Do you wish to be notified of future stages in the Local Plan including examination and adoption?

Yes

No No

2

Part B: Your Representations

Representations should only relate to the Schedule of Further Significant Changes to the Local Plan.

SoundnessParagraph 182 of the National Planning Policy Framework sets out the consideration in relation to a plan being considered ‘sound’:

Positively prepared Justified Effective Consistent with national policy

Legal complianceFor a Local Plan to be considered legally compliant, the following needs to be determined:

Whether the Local Plan is detailed in the current Local DevelopmentScheme and that the key stages have been followed,

That community involvement has been carried out in accordance with the current Statement of Community Involvement

Whether the Local Plan makes satisfactory regard to the Sustainable Community Strategy

That the Local Plan complies with the Planning and Compulsory Purchase Act 2004 (as amended)

That the Local Plan complies with the Town and Country Planning (Local Planning) (England) Regulations 2012

That a Sustainability Appraisal report is published to accompany theLocal Plan and is adequate

That the Habitats Regulations Assessment is carried out in accordance with the Conservation of Habitats and Species Regulations (The Habitats Regulations) 2010

That the Local Plan has regard to national planning policy That Section 110 of the Localism Act 2011 (Duty to Co-operate) has

been complied with.

Q2 A local planning authority should submit a plan for examination which it considers to be ‘sound’. Do you consider the Schedule of Further Significant Changes to the Local Plan has met these tests?

Yes

No No


Sustainability has been ignored. You propose 52000 houses while hospitals are on black alert on a regular basis, we pump raw sewerage into the sea, we effectively practise ethnic cleansing of coastal communities by turning the coastal belt into second homes and holidaylets. You have allowed the collective expertise of our Cornwall councillors and Planning Dept to be overruled by a Planning Inspector from Bristol. A truly shameful document that updates a version that should have been rejected.

3


Yes No


Q4 Please provide any comments on the Further Significant Changes to the Local Plan – Strategic Policies

Please use a separate box for each change and state which number on theschedule your comment refers to. Any additional comments will need to adhere to the same format as set out below.

Document Schedule Change NumberCornwall Local Plan – Strategic Policies


Document Schedule Change NumberCornwall Local Plan –

4

Strategic Policies





Document Schedule Change NumberCornwall Local Plan –

5

Strategic Policies

6



no


If you select No, your written comments will still be considered by the independent Planning Inspector. Please note the Inspector will determine the most appropriate procedure to adopt to hear those who have indicatedthat they wish to participate at the oral part of the examination. There is no right to be heard at a hearing session and it is the Inspector who decides who should be heard.

Signature Peter Wyper Date 7th March 2016

If you require any assistance in completing this form or require any further explanation as to what is required please contact a member of the local planning team using the email address below or telephoning 01872 224283.

Data Protection

In complying with the Data Protection Act 1998 Cornwall Council confirms that it will process personal data gathered from this form only for the purposes relating to the consultation.

Personal information will be added to the Council’s Local Plan consultation database and will be used to keep you informed of progress with the LocalPlan and in order to consult with you further at each stage of the process to enable you to make future comments.

Personal information will also be shared with the Government appointed planning inspector (from the Planning Inspectorate), who may wish to contact you to discuss your comments and concerns, prior to formal examination of the Local Plan and supporting documents.

Submitting your comments

We must receive all responses by 5pm on Monday 7th March 2016.Comments received after this time will not be recorded and will not be considered by the Council. We have set this deadline to ensure that all who wish to take part in this consultation have the same timescale within which to respond.

7

1

Schedule of Further Significant Changes

to the



Representation Form



by email to:

[email protected]

by post to: Cornwall Council – Local Plans Team

Carrick House St Clement Street

Truro TR1 1EB

We are not consulting on the complete Cornwall Local Plan – Strategic Policies, this was done earlier in March 2014 and

September 2014. We are consulting on the changes set out in this Schedule of Further Significant Changes proposed to those documents.

All representations should be submitted using this form.

Please be as succinct as possible and use a separate box under ‘Question 4’ for each change on which you are commenting.

This form has two parts. Part A asks for your contact details and Part B asks questions for you to consider and gives you the opportunity to make

comments.


jbrinkhoff

Typewritten Text

550

2


You must complete Part A for your representations to be accepted. The

Council can not accept anonymous representations. Regulation 22 of the Town and Country Planning (Local Planning)

(England) Regulations 2012, requires all representations received to be submitted to the Secretary of State. By completing this form and

submitting it to the Council you are giving your consent to the processing of personal data by Cornwall Council and that any information received by the Council, including personal data, may be put into the public domain,

including on the Council’s website.


Name Prepared on behalf of Taylor Wimpey c/o

Origin3

Organisation

Address line 1

Address line 2

Address line 3

Address line 4

Postcode

Telephone number

Email address

Preferred contact method Email Post


Name Colin Danks

Organisation Origin3 Limited

Address line 1

Address line 2

Address line 3

Address line 4

Postcode

Telephone number

Email address

Preferred contact method Email x Post

Q1 Do you wish to be notified of future stages in the Local Plan

including examination and adoption?

Yes x

No

3



Soundness Paragraph 182 of the National Planning Policy Framework sets out the

consideration in relation to a plan being considered ‘sound’: Positively prepared

Justified Effective Consistent with national policy

Legal compliance

For a Local Plan to be considered legally compliant, the following needs to be determined:

Whether the Local Plan is detailed in the current Local Development

Scheme and that the key stages have been followed, That community involvement has been carried out in accordance

with the current Statement of Community Involvement Whether the Local Plan makes satisfactory regard to the

Sustainable Community Strategy That the Local Plan complies with the Planning and Compulsory

Purchase Act 2004 (as amended)

That the Local Plan complies with the Town and Country Planning (Local Planning) (England) Regulations 2012

That a Sustainability Appraisal report is published to accompany the Local Plan and is adequate

That the Habitats Regulations Assessment is carried out in

accordance with the Conservation of Habitats and Species Regulations (The Habitats Regulations) 2010


been complied with.

Q2 A local planning authority should submit a plan for


Yes

No x


As detailed in full within our other representations to the Plan, the Plan as currently

drafted is considered to be unsound for its lack of adherence to national planning

policy in terms of assessing the needs for housing in combination with land for

economic development as well as failing to identify broad locations and specific sites

for growth.

4

The comments set out below provide Origin3’s response to the Further Significant

Changes on behalf of Taylor Wimpey in regard to their land interests within the

different Community Network Areas (CNAs) throughout Cornwall.

Q3 Do you consider that the Schedule of Further Significant Changes to the Local Plan meets the legal and procedural

requirements?

Yes

No x

Please specify the reasons below As stated above, the Plan does not seem to have had full regard to current National

Planning Policy, in particular Paragraphs 157, 47 and 161 of the NPPF.


Changes to the Local Plan – Strategic Policies

Please use a separate box for each change and state which number on the schedule your comment refers to. Any additional comments will need to

adhere to the same format as set out below.

Document Schedule Change Number

Cornwall Local Plan – Strategic Policies

15 + 26

The amendments to Table 1 serve to adjust the housing targets and distribution

across the CNAs to reflect the amended strategic housing target of 52,500 homes.

The proposed amendments to the distribution of the uplifted housing target across

the CNAs are derived from the Cornwall Local Plan Housing Distribution paper

(December 2015) which accompanies the Further Significant Changes to the Local

Plan.

Truro and Threemilestone CNA

For the Truro and Threemilestone CNA area there has been a 30% increase in the

housing requirement since the previous version of the Local Plan. This increase is

welcomed by Origin3, however, the level of uplift is questioned for the following

reasons.

Historically, there has been a significant housing shortage within the Truro and

Threemilestone CNA as identified in the Cornwall Local Plan Housing Distribution

document (December 2015). The CNA is identified as having a key economic role,

5

reflecting its existing service and retail role and importance in the health sector in

Cornwall. However, this success is reflected in the imbalance between the high

number of jobs in the CNA, and the significantly low number of residents due to a

historical shortage of housing within Truro. On the basis of this historic shortfall, it

can be argued that the Further Changes have failed to resolve the considerable

mismatch between the housing and employment requirements for the Truro and

Threemilestone CNA. Whilst the uplift in the housing requirement is welcomed, it is

questionable whether this goes far enough to promote Truro’s key role within the

LEP’s Economic Strategy for Cornwall. Notwithstanding this, based on the proposed

employment figures, the housing requirement falls short of ensuring current and

future employees will be able to find suitable and affordable accommodation within

the CNA over the lifetime of the Plan. Whilst it is acknowledged that a proportion of

new jobs would be taken up by existing residents who would not require additional

housing, this would not offset the imbalance between the proposed employment and

housing set out in the Further Changes.

This imbalance of growth between employment and housing availability will lead to

adverse effects including less housing choice for those trying to relocate to the

CNA as a result of employment in Truro. Should the economy continue to grow

as expected, this would place unrealistic pressure on the local housing market,

further widening the gap between affordability and income. As such, Truro and

Threemilestone has been identified as an area of high affordable housing need in the

Housing Distribution document (December 2015) and is located within Affordable

Housing Zone 3 in the Local Plan. On this basis, a further uplift above that suggested

in the Further Changes would be justified, as this would also include providing for

some additional growth that cannot be met in adjoining network areas to the north

and south.

Another effect of the historic shortage of housing within the CNA is the significant

amount of in-commuting into Truro from other areas of the CNA and beyond, due to

the lack of existing available housing in the city. Truro is the top commuter

destination in Cornwall with 14,000 people commuting to the city daily (Truro and the

Roseland Topic paper, March 2013). In addition, the Truro /Camborne -Redruth

/Falmouth - Penryn triangle generates nearly a third of all Travel To Work trips in

Cornwall (Truro and the Roseland Topic paper, March 2013). On this basis, a further

uplift than that suggested in the Further Changes would serve to further reduce the

levels of in-commuting in the CNA. The imbalance in growth currently demonstrated

in the Further Changes is not positively prepared and is therefore unsound.

Origin3 recognises that the Truro and Threemilestone CNA already has a

considerable number of existing commitments that have planning permission that

have either not come forward or are currently under construction. However, these

existing commitments will help to address the historic backlog of housing need within

the CNA but may fall short of addressing the future growth anticipated for Truro. In

addition, these sites will be constrained by existing infrastructure needs and

previously slow delivery rates. In consideration of the above, the Local plan needs to

amend the future housing requirement to rebalance housing and employment growth

and provide a higher uplift than currently proposed.

6

In terms of the direction of growth, it is recognised that there are environmental

constraints within the CNA that direct development towards Truro and the

Threemilestone area. The Cornwall Area of Outstanding Natural Beauty (AONB)

covers a third of the CNA, but is removed from the city allowing the majority of future

growth to be located here without any impact on the landscape designation. In

addition, past growth towards Threemilestone has protected the Truro ‘bowl’ and the

green hills around the city and this should continue to be protected. Origin3 welcome

continued growth in the Threemilestone area.

Penzance and West Penwith CNA Notwithstanding the increased minimum housing requirement for Cornwall and the

pro rata approach set out in the Housing Distribution document, the distribution of

housing to West Penwith CNA has remained unchanged from the previous version of

the Plan with a requirement of 2,150 dwellings allocated for Penzance with Newlyn,

Heamoor, Gulval and Longrock (hereafter referred to as ‘Penzance/Newlyn’) and a

target of 1,000 identified for residual parts of the CNA.

The housing distribution does not, however, correlate with the proposed increase in

employment floorspace for West Penwith from 25,300 sqm to a total of 32,166 sqm

(B1, B2 and B8 uses) as set out in Table 3 of the Plan. The employment increase

equates to an uplift of 27%. However an uplift in the housing requirement has not

been made since the previous version of the Plan with the reason given that this is

due to environmental constraints limiting further growth. However the evidence to

support this approach has not been adequately set out and explained with the Plan.

On this basis, as currently drafted, the housing distribution for West Penwith CNA is

not considered to be justified and has not been based on proportionate evidence.

Accordingly, the housing distribution for West Penwith CNA is not considered to be

‘sound’ in the context of paragraph 182 of the NPPF.

The Cornwall Local Plan Housing Distribution document (2015) sets out that within

the Council’s areas of focus for the Economic Strategy (which includes

Penzance/Newlyn) a higher than pro rata level of growth is expected for employment

and housing to align with their spatial strategy. Following the Housing Distribution

document’s approach, this would reflect an uplift in the housing requirement of at

least 20% above pro rata level (Section 2, page 2). Therefore this would equate to

an increased housing requirement for Penzance/Newlyn from 2,150 to at least 2,760

dwellings. As a result, the remaining requirement for Penzance/Newlyn should be

uplifted from 1,481 to at least 2,091 dwellings, taking into account existing

completions (2010–2015) and commitments.

Notwithstanding its growth area status in the Housing Distribution document, no uplift

has been made to reflect the Inspector’s clear recommendation for a 7% uplift to be

added to the overall housing OAN to account for holiday/second homes ownership,

as set out in his June 2015 Preliminary Findings report (paragraph 3.25). There is a

lack of evidence to justify why the Council has taken the decision not to uplift the

housing requirement for West Penwith CNA to reflect second home ownership,

particularly when second home ownership is higher in this CNA when compared to

the Cornwall average (as referenced in the West Penwith Place Based Topic Paper -

7

March 2013).

As evidenced in the Housing Distribution document (December 2015) it is stated that

where the capacity of CNAs is environmentally constrained, the equivalent pro rata

growth will need to be absorbed at other CNAs. Factors that are considered as

constraints for Penzance/Newlyn include the Area of Outstanding Natural Beauty

(AONB) as well as the need for coastal protection and preserving higher quality

agricultural land. This appears to form the basis of the Council’s justification for

suppressing further housing growth within this area which would otherwise normally

address second home ownership problems and support economic growth. Without

sufficiently addressing second home ownership and supporting the Economic

Strategy this is likely to lead to unsustainable planning outcomes for this area that

are inconsistent with the provisions of the NPPF (e.g Core Planning Principles at

paragraph 17).

Origin3 disagrees with this approach as the basis for potentially redistributing

housing identified for West Penwith CNA to other CNAs, specifically to Hayle and

Camborne-Pool-Redruth. Evidence in the Council’s latest Strategic Housing Land

Availability Assessment (SHLAA, January 2016 - Table 6.2.1, Appendix 6.2)

indicates that there are potentially sufficient suitable, available and achievable sites

capable of fully meeting the housing requirement for the Penzance/Newlyn CNA

without impacting on environmental constraints. NPPG guidance is clear that the

assessment of the suitability, availability and achievability of sites through the SHLAA

process will provide the information as to whether a site should be considered to be

deliverable, developable or not currently developable for housing (NPPG Paragraph:

029 Reference ID: 3-029-20140306). This process inherently takes into account the

identification of environmental constraints. For the remainder of the Plan period,

Table 6.2.1 of the 2016 SHLAA sets out that up to 1,915 homes could be provided at

Penzance/Newlyn.

This is a clear indication that the residual housing requirement for Penzance/Newlyn

could be fully met through these sites, or substantially met if the remaining

requirement is adjusted to 2,091 homes as explained above. Consequently, the

Council’s proposal that other CNAs should potentially absorb the unmet need due to

environmental constraint for this CNA is currently unfounded and cannot be justified.

The consequences of not uplifting the housing requirement for Penzance/Newlyn to

match the proposed economic uplift would be much more significant than at some at

the other CNAs and is a compounded problem.

Firstly, as noted above, holiday/second homes ownership is higher in West Penwith

CNA than the Cornwall average. As a consequence, the decision by the Council not

to add the 7% uplift to account for second homes ownership will limit future housing

supply thus increasing property prices and uplifting the entry level price for affordable

homes in West Penwith.

Secondly, in an area where delivery of affordable homes is suppressed by viability

constraints from the outset (Zone 4 – 30%) the impact of this problem would force

some people to seek accommodation elsewhere, which encourages unsustainable

8

commuting patterns for those travelling from other CNAs into West Penwith for work.

This increases the cost of travel to work for those priced out of the market and would

add to the problems of congestion caused by commuting, which has already been

identified as a local issue elsewhere such as at Truro along the A390 corridor.

Thirdly, the implications of not uplifting the housing requirement to match the

employment requirements will have a detrimental impact on the Council being able to

meet its economic strategy.

In summary, Origin3 considers the housing distribution for Penzance/Newlyn should

be uplifted so that it is proportionate to the uplift applied to other CNAs, with less

weight attributed to environmental constraints as a reason to restrict growth within

the West Penwith CNA. As the housing distribution for West Penwith CNA currently

stands, it lacks clarity and justification of the reasons why no uplift has been applied

to align with the economic strategy and to take account of second home ownership.

Accordingly, the proposed distribution to West Penwith CNA is not justified and

cannot therefore be considered ‘sound’ in the context of paragraph 182 of the NPPF.

Falmouth and Penryn CNA

Falmouth and Penryn are the focus for marine businesses with strategic deep water

access, and is also the base for the Combined University of Cornwall which is a

focus for Research and Development growth. This sector of employment is unique to

Cornwall and should be strengthened with a balanced opportunity for housing

growth. A higher uplift in housing provision could assist in achieving the targeted

economic growth set out in Cornwall’s Economic Strategy.

For the Falmouth and Penryn CNA, there has been an 8% increase in the additional

housing requirement, since the previous version of the Local Plan. However, the

proposed allocation of 2,800 homes has not been uplifted beyond its pro-rata

distribution level. Falmouth and Penryn are identified as areas of focus for growth in

the Council’s Economic Strategy in the Housing Distribution document (December

2015) and as such are expected to have an uplift of at least 20% of above pro-rata

level of growth, unless constrained by other factors. In addition, Falmouth and

Penryn is identified as an area of high affordable housing need, which would be

expected to be a focus of above pro-rata growth unless mitigated by other factors.

It is understood that growth at Falmouth is constrained by its physical setting and the

Cornwall AONB that lies to the south of the town. However, there is already the

opportunity for significant growth in the area located between Falmouth and Penryn

due to recent major road and community infrastructure improvements. Works began

in February 2015 to improve the Union Corner road junction adjacent to Falmouth

School, at north west Falmouth. These improvements will increase capacity at the

junction and improve safety on Falmouth Road, as well as contributing towards the

wider improvement scheme for Falmouth Community School, which is currently

undergoing expansion.

It is evident that existing and improved infrastructure should be used to direct future

housing when planning for growth. Therefore, it is questioned why the Local Plan is

9

seemingly taking a cautious approach to providing growth at Falmouth and Penryn,

when the improvements in infrastructure at North West Falmouth provide the

opportunity to be aspirational in terms of the provision of housing. It can be argued

that the current provision for housing set out in the Further Changes has not been

positively prepared and the Local Plan is therefore unsound.

Paragraph 8.3 states that, “in delivering the housing target for Falmouth and Penryn,

priority should be given to the utilisation of brownfield and urban sites; although it is

acknowledged that the urban capacity is limited due to the constrained nature of the

towns. Consequently, remaining growth will need to be provided on greenfield sites;

the identification of appropriate greenfield options will be established in the Cornwall

Strategic Allocations document.”

Origin3 has expressed objection to the lack of detail within the Local Plan; the Plan

fails to demonstrate how the employment, housing and retail requirements would be

fulfilled within the CNA through identification of broad locations for growth (in

accordance with paragraph 157 of the NPPF). This is important for a settlement such

as Falmouth which has several physical constraints. Moreover, the Council proposes

to delay consideration of site allocations to the preparation of the Site Allocations

DPD following adoption of the Local Plan. The Policy Messages section of the Plan

has the potential to provide detailed policy within a local context, in particular dealing

with the what, where, when and how questions which the Local Plan should be

addressing (Inspector’s Advice, August 2015) and which are largely absent from the

Plan. However, in the form currently drafted through the Further Changes, the Policy

Messages are ineffective and therefore unsound.

Origin3 welcomes the proposed increase in the employment floor space target for the

Falmouth-Penryn CNA. The proposed change represents an increase from 22,450

sq. m. to 25,750 sq. m. of employment floorspace. This responds positively to the

findings of the Economic Strategy Briefing Paper (January 2016) which supports

growth at Falmouth-Penryn as a location for maritime business (paragraph 36).

However, in light of Falmouth’s unique economy and importance for growth, there is

a concern that a low future provision of housing in this area could result in a similar

imbalance between employment and housing as Truro has suffered in recent years.

An imbalance of growth between employment space and future housing requirement

has several implications including less housing choice for those trying to relocate

within the CNA as a result of new employment, or enrolment in the university in

Falmouth. Should the economy continue to grow, this will place unrealistic

pressure on the local housing market, further widening the gap between

affordability and income. This imbalance in growth demonstrates that the plan is not

positively prepared and is therefore unsound.

Considering all of the above the above, it is questioned why the Local Plan is not

proposing a significant increase in target completion rates, in line with that expected

by the Economic Strategy. This is effectively placing a cap on the future economic

potential of the area, when Falmouth and Penryn has been identified as an area of

significant growth. As such, based on supporting evidence, the Local Plan is not

demonstrating an appropriate strategy for future housing development within the

Falmouth and Penryn CNA, when considered against the overall economic strategy

10

for Cornwall, and therefore the plan is not justified and is unsound.

Wadebridge and Padstow CNA Wadebridge has a role in acting as a local service centre for much of the surrounding

rural area. It is recommended in the Housing Distribution document (December 2015)

that a higher than pro-rata approach is taken for Wadebridge, and below pro-rata for

the remainder of the CNA, so that Wadebridge can absorb much of the additional

growth from the rural areas. The document advises that build rates will need to be

significantly increased in Wadebridge going forward to accommodate this absorption,

compared to past rates.

As such, there has been a 73% uplift from the pro-rata distribution for Wadebridge,

which Origin3 welcomes. This increase has taken into account absorption from the

surrounding rural areas, in line with the development strategy for the area. However,

there has only been a 10% increase in additional housing allocations, since the

previous version of the Local Plan, equating to 100 dwellings. When taking into

account the remaining requirement of 739 units from April 2015 to the end of the plan

period (set out in Policy 3 Table 1), and the 235 existing commitments, this equates

to a total of 974 future completions equating to a build rate of 64.9 completions per

year for the rest of the plan period.

In comparison, between April 2010 and April 2015, Wadebridge provided 25.2

completed units per year, a significant decrease from the 87 completed units per year

between 1991 and 2010 (Paragraph 13.0 Key Facts). As such, the overall completion

rate between 1991 and 2015 averages out at 77 completed units per year. These

past completion rates are considerably higher than the proposed future completion

rate set out in the Further Significant Changes document, which conflicts with the

recommendation set out in the Housing Distribution document (December 2015) to

significantly increase build rates in Wadebridge. It is evident that based on these past

trends, Wadebridge has consistently achieved higher rates of completions in the area

in the last 25 years than proposed through the Further Changes.

Therefore, it is questioned why the Local Plan is proposing a significant reduction in

target completion rates, effectively placing a cap on the future economic potential of

the area, when it is evident that the CNA can, and has in the past, supported a higher

level of residential development. As such, based on supporting evidence, the Local

Plan is not demonstrating an appropriate strategy for future housing development

within the Wadebridge CNA, when considered against the past completion rate, and

therefore the plan is not justified and is unsound.

Table 3 (formerly Table 2) increases employment floorspace provision from 8,000 to

circa 13,000 sq. m. over the plan period taking account of the availability of publicly

owned land for employment use. Origin3 supports the proposed uplift in the

employment floorspace targets for Wadebridge and Padstow CNA. The proposed

change indicates an increase from 8,000 sq. m. of employment floorspace to 6,667

sq. m. of office and a further 6,667 sq. m. of industrial employment. The proposed

change in employment provision responds positively to the findings of the Economic

Strategy Briefing Paper (paragraph 50) which advises that there is significant

potential within Wadebridge for pre-planning sites in public ownership to be brought

11

forward for employment use and therefore genuine capacity on deliverable sites

within the area to support an increase in employment provision.

Whilst the uplift in employment provision is welcomed, it is questionable whether the

proposed housing requirement goes far enough to address the imbalance between

the proposed employment growth and the decrease in the proposed completion rate.

This imbalance of growth between employment and housing availability could have

several implications including less housing choice for those trying to relocate to

Wadebridge as a result of employment growth. Wadebridge is already identified as

an area of high affordable housing need and is therefore expected to be a focus for

above pro-rata growth unless mitigated by other factors. The Wadebridge CNA is

also located within Affordable Housing Zone 4 in the Local Plan, indicating low

viability for the provision of affordable housing.

Should the economy continue to grow as expected, this will place unrealistic

pressure on the local housing market, further widening the gap between

affordability and income. On this basis, a further uplift above that suggested in the

Further Changes would be justified, as this would also include providing for some

additional growth to resolve Wadebridge’s affordability issues. The imbalance in

growth currently demonstrated in the Further Changes is not positively prepared and

is therefore unsound.

Newquay CNA The Newquay CNA is restricted for growth options other than at Newquay, due

mainly to a lack of suitable settlements to accommodate additional growth. On that

basis, the Housing Distribution document (December 2015) recommends a higher

than pro-rata approach for Newquay, and below pro-rata for the remainder of the

CNA. The proposed uplift of 94% in housing requirement for Newquay with Quintrell

Downs CNA is therefore welcomed. The proposed increase of 850 dwellings to this

CNA, since the previous version of the Local Plan, equates to a 17% share of the

total housing requirement uplift proposed in the Further Significant Changes to the

Local Plan. This is in line with Cornwall’s economic strategy which identifies

Newquay as an area for economic concentration with the provision of the Aerohub,

its major role as a tourist centre, and as an area of strategic opportunity to build

linkages between Newquay, the China Clay area, St Austell and Bodmin.

The increase in proposed employment floor space (B1, B2 and B8 uses only)

requirements equates to circa 22%, from the previous version of the Local Plan

compared with the increase in housing provision of circa 23%. As such, there is a

direct relationship between the uplift in the housing and employment requirements

and this is welcomed as a justified and effective approach to planning for growth in

Newquay.

However, as a settlement identified for significant growth that has no significant

environmental constraints, it could be questioned as to whether the housing provision

for Newquay as proposed in the Further Changes could be increased to

accommodate housing from neighbouring CNAs. Many of the surrounding CNAs,

such as St Agnes and Perranporth CNA and the Wadebridge and Padstow CNA

comprise landscape designations such as AONB, SSSIs and SACs restricting the

12

amount of land available for residential growth in these areas. It could be argued that

the proposed housing provision for the Newquay CNA could be increased further to

absorb some of this growth from landscape sensitive areas.

In addition, Origin3 has expressed objection to the lack of detail within the Local

Plan; the Plan fails to demonstrate how the employment, housing and retail

requirements would be fulfilled through identification of broad locations for growth at

Newquay. This is particularly important in a CNA with the majority of growth located

at one main settlement. Moreover, the Council proposes to delay consideration of

site allocations to the preparation of the Site Allocations DPD following adoption of

the Local Plan. The Policy Messages section of the Plan has the potential to provide

detailed policy within a local context, in particular dealing with the what, where, when

and how questions which the Local Plan should be addressing (Inspector’s Advice,

August 2015) and which are largely absent from the Plan. However, in the form

proposed through the Further Changes, the Policy Messages are ineffective and

therefore unsound.

In consideration of the above, the Local Plan should be amended to (at the

very least) identify large scale strategic allocations or growth areas for

Newquay. Without such amendments, the Local Plan is considered

inconsistent with the Framework. Paragraph 47 of the Framework requires the

preparation of local plans which meet the full objectively assessed needs of the

area, ‘including identifying key sites which are critical to the delivery of the housing

strategy over the plan period’. The Local Plan fails to satisfy these basic Local

Plan requirements and is therefore at present inconsistent with the Framework

and thus considered unsound.



182 (paragraph 13.2)

Origin3 supports the proposed additional text to paragraph 13.2 which recognises

Wadebridge as the main settlement within the CNA and promotes a comprehensive

and co-ordinated approach to the planning and development of the area. However,

these sentiments must be carried through to the other elements of the Plan through

the identification of broad locations for growth. Local Plans should be aspirational

but realistic, setting out opportunities for development and clear policies on what will

or will not be permitted and where (paragraph 154). The non-prescriptive approach

proposed through the Cornwall Local Plan is inconsistent with the NPPF in this

respect and provides no certainty of the extent of growth in key locations and

therefore it is not possible to understand the spatial implications for the proposed

housing and employment growth.

13

Q5 If your representation is seeking a change; do you wish to participate at the examination in public? Please select one option, if you do not select a preference we will assume you

do not wish to attend.

No I do not wish to participate at

the examination in public

Yes I wish to participate at the

examination in public

x

If you select No, your written comments will still be considered by the independent Planning Inspector. Please note the Inspector will determine the most appropriate procedure to adopt to hear those who have indicated

that they wish to participate at the oral part of the examination. There is no right to be heard at a hearing session and it is the Inspector who

decides who should be heard.

Signature

Date

07/03/16

If you require any assistance in completing this form or require any

further explanation as to what is required please contact a member of the local planning team using the email address below or telephoning 01872 224283.

Data Protection


Personal information will be added to the Council’s Local Plan consultation

database and will be used to keep you informed of progress with the Local Plan and in order to consult with you further at each stage of the process to enable you to make future comments.

Personal information will also be shared with the Government appointed

planning inspector (from the Planning Inspectorate), who may wish to contact you to discuss your comments and concerns, prior to formal examination of the Local Plan and supporting documents.

Submitting your comments

We must receive all responses by 5pm on Monday 7th March 2016. Comments received after this time will not be recorded and will not be considered by the Council. We have set this deadline to ensure that all

who wish to take part in this consultation have the same timescale within which to respond.

1

Schedule of Further Significant Changes

to the Cornwall Local Plan – Strategic Policies

Proposed Submission (March 2014) and Schedule of Focused Changes (September

2014)

Representation Form



by email to:

[email protected]

by post to:

Cornwall Council – Local Plans Team Carrick House St Clement Street

Truro TR1 1EB


September 2014. We are consulting on the changes set out in this Schedule of Further Significant Changes proposed to those

documents. All representations should be submitted using this form.



comments.


jbrinkhoff

Typewritten Text

Shared statement for 550, 595, 795

jbrinkhoff

Typewritten Text

2



Council can not accept anonymous representations.

Regulation 22 of the Town and Country Planning (Local Planning) (England) Regulations 2012, requires all representations received to be submitted to the Secretary of State. By completing this form and

submitting it to the Council you are giving your consent to the processing of personal data by Cornwall Council and that any information received by

the Council, including personal data, may be put into the public domain, including on the Council’s website.


Name Prepared on behalf of: Comparo, LXB

Properties, Taylor Wimpey c/o Origin3

Organisation

Address line 1

Address line 2

Address line 3

Address line 4

Postcode

Telephone number

Email address

Preferred contact method Email Post


Name Colin Danks

Organisation Origin3

Address line 1

Address line 2

Address line 3

Address line 4

Postcode

Telephone number

Email address

Preferred contact method Email x Post

Q1 Do you wish to be notified of future stages in the Local Plan including examination and adoption?

Yes x

No

3



Soundness

Paragraph 182 of the National Planning Policy Framework sets out the consideration in relation to a plan being considered ‘sound’:

Positively prepared

Justified Effective

Consistent with national policy


Whether the Local Plan is detailed in the current Local Development Scheme and that the key stages have been followed,

That community involvement has been carried out in accordance with the current Statement of Community Involvement

Whether the Local Plan makes satisfactory regard to the

Sustainable Community Strategy That the Local Plan complies with the Planning and Compulsory

Purchase Act 2004 (as amended) That the Local Plan complies with the Town and Country Planning

(Local Planning) (England) Regulations 2012

That a Sustainability Appraisal report is published to accompany the Local Plan and is adequate

That the Habitats Regulations Assessment is carried out in accordance with the Conservation of Habitats and Species Regulations (The Habitats Regulations) 2010



examination which it considers to be ‘sound’. Do you consider the Schedule of Further Significant Changes to the

Local Plan has met these tests?

Yes

No x


The changes that have been made to the Plan in relation to the uplifted housing numbers and clarifications of the Council’s Economic Strategy based on the further technical assessments are welcomed. However the relationships between housing land requirements, the distribution of the housing uplift between the CNAs, the Economic Strategy and employment land

4

requirements still remains unclear and requires further explanation for the Plan to be considered sound. Paragraph 47 of the NPPF states that “To boost significantly the supply of housing, local authorities should”:

“identify and update annually a supply of specific deliverable sites sufficient to provide five years’ worth of housing against their housing requirements with an additional buffer of 5% (moved forward from later in the plan period) to ensure choice and competition in the market for land.

identify a supply of specific, developable sites or broad locations for growth, for years 6-10 and, where possible, for years 11-15;”

Paragraph 157 of the NPPF states that “Crucially Local Plans should”:

“indicate broad locations for strategic development on a key diagram and land-use designations on a proposals map;

allocate sites to promote development and flexible use of land, bringing forward new land where necessary, and provide detail on form, scale, access and quantum of development where appropriate;”

We welcome the Council’s approach of identifying housing and floorspace targets for specific settlements however as currently drafted, the Plan does not appear to identify the broad locations or specific sites that will deliver the targets in line with the NPPF. The uplifted OAN takes account of the peer review work undertaken by Ash Futures (August 2015) in forecasting jobs and economic growth. However it doesn’t appear to clearly explain the interrelationship between the jobs forecasts and the employment land requirements (for all types of economic development, not only B class uses). The forecast jobs growth will clearly have implications for housing provision which will have a bearing on the amount of housing land that can be made available. Paragraph 161 of the NPPF states that local planning authorities should use the SHMA and SHLAA processes to assess (O3 emphasis): “The need for land or floorspace for economic development, including both the quantitative and qualitative needs for all foreseeable types of economic activity over the plan period, including retail and leisure development; The existing and future supply of land available for economic development and its sufficiency and suitability to meet the identified needs. Reviews of land available for economic development should be undertaken at the same time, or as combined with, Strategic Housing Land Availability Assessments and should include a reappraisal of the suitability of previously allocated land.”

Despite current national guidance, Council’s updated SHLAA (January 2016) only appears to cover housing and does not include assessment of land available for economic development. The methodology flow chart on page 14 of the SHLAA (based on 2014 DCLG Guidance) indicates that Stage 4 of the process should be “Assessment of development need for housing and economic development uses”. However this section of the updated assessment appears to be missing.

5

Q3 Do you consider that the Schedule of Further Significant Changes to the Local Plan meets the legal and procedural

requirements?

Yes

No x


As stated above and detailed further below, the Plan does not seem to have had full regard to current National Planning Policy, in particular Paragraphs 47, 157 and 161 of the NPPF.



Please use a separate box for each change and state which number on the

schedule your comment refers to. Any additional comments will need to adhere to the same format as set out below.



14

The amended text states that “The Plan aims to provide the space and conditions to

support approximately 38,000 jobs over the plan period”. However the Plan only

provides targets for B class floorspace which will only account for a proportion of

these jobs and their floorspace requirements. It is not clear how the target of 38,000

jobs translates spatially into the need for employment land and housing land and

particularly whether the amount of land being allocated through the Plan will be

sufficient to support these jobs forecasts.

The updated supporting text states that “In some areas, a surplus of available

employment space has been identified against these targets. In these areas careful

consideration will be given to the development of sites for non-employment use”.

It is assumed that the surpluses referred to are the negative residual requirement

figures within Table 3 (Local Plan Employment Floorspace Requirements 2010-30).

As detailed further at Change 39 below, the use of the negative residual requirement

figures in Table 3 remains confusing and could act as a deterrent to prospective

investment in economic activity in those areas with negative figures.

It also implies that in certain areas there is a surplus of brownfield land which could

be considered for alternative uses such as housing. It is not clear whether this

identification of surplus land has been factored into the assessment of land available

for housing. If a combined assessment process had been undertaken of land for both

housing and economic development (as recommended by paragraph 161 of the

NPPF) this could have been considered. The use of the negative figures is not

considered to be positive preparation of the Plan.

6



15

The provisions of the new Policy 2a (Key Targets) are welcomed in respect of the

proposed uplift in provision of employment floorspace to assist in the delivery of the

objectives of the Cornwall and LEP Economic Strategy. However, the strategy

continues to fails to align housing delivery with employment growth. Following

reassessment of the Local Plan’s Economic Strategy the Further Changes 2016 have

increased provision of employment to 38,000 full time jobs. Whilst Origin3 broadly

welcomes this proposed uplift in jobs creation, the balance between the targets for

housing growth and jobs growth remain unexplained. As proposed, the uplifted

housing targets still appear to be insufficient to meet the needs of new employees

and would effectively suppress the LEP’s Economic Strategy for Cornwall by

providing insufficient housing to meet needs. Examples of impacts that could arise if

the housing provision is unbalanced against the provision of employment land

include the following:

Should the economy continue to grow at the pace anticipated by Policy 2a, this

would place unrealistic pressure on the local housing market, further widening

the gap between affordability and income.

It would place even greater pressure on the need for affordable housing and

further prevent people entering in to the housing market and therefore further

increasing the number of concealed households.

There would be less housing choice for those trying to relocate within Cornwall

as a result of new employment.

Give rise to undesirable and unsustainable commuting patterns creating

congestion and increasing the cost of travel for workers.

In respect of the proposed employment provision, Policy 2a specifies a target based

on employment floorspace provision rather than employment land provision. The

provisions of the Local Plan will eventually need to be translated through to the

provision of Site Allocations including the identification of Strategic Employment

Sites. In the absence of employment land allocations within the Plan it is unclear at

present how the employment floorspace targets will be met through delivery across

Cornwall.

Indeed, as noted above, the amended Table 2 indicates an oversupply of

employment floorspace in certain areas of Cornwall. As currently drafted it is unclear

whether this implies a need to review the employment land provision within those

CNAs to release employment land for alternative uses. Conversely, there could

remain a need to allocate further employment land in locations more attractive to new

businesses seeking suitable land within the area. For clarity, further information

needs to be included within the Plan to establish the Council’s strategy for delivery of

employment land within the CNAs.

Whilst Origin3 broadly supports the uplift in employment growth, firm evidence of

7

demand from employers to locate in Cornwall is unavailable. It is therefore

questionable whether, in reality, the Economic Strategy can realistically be delivered.

Notwithstanding this, Cornwall’s future economic success is reliant on the

attractiveness of the location to new and existing businesses to expand existing

premises and locate new facilities within Cornwall. The provision of adequate

infrastructure to achieve connectivity by a range of transport modes and hi-tech

infrastructure is essential to create an attractive environment for businesses and

investors.

The values associated with employment provision are unlikely to be sufficiently high

to support delivery of new infrastructure. Moreover, the introduction of the

Community Infrastructure Levy within Cornwall following adoption of the Local Plan

would (as currently proposed by the Preliminary Draft Charging Schedule) apply a

zero rate of CIL to all B1, B2 and B8 uses. Therefore new employment proposals

would not be required to contribute towards any strategic infrastructure funding. The

delivery of adequate levels of housing is therefore vital to support the delivery of

strategic infrastructure to create an attractive environment for new businesses.

In respect of the housing target set by Policy 2a, the proposed text should be

amended to refer to “At least 52,500 homes….” to clarify that any exceedance of the

total housing target is acceptable providing development is delivered in a sustainable

manner.

For clarity, it would be useful if the summary table of targets could state ‘B1a

employment floorspace’ rather than ‘B1’ floorspace so that it is clear which use

classes fall within each category and to be consistent with bullet point 3. The targets

are based on the Employment Land Review (ELR) produced in 2010. It is noted that

the way in which the B class uses have been categorised is different in the ELR than

within the Plan itself. The Plan splits up B1a as ‘Office’ and then categorises all other

B’ uses as ‘Industrial’. However the ELR includes B1b space within the B1a category.

Given that Research and Development is one of the key sectors being promoted

through the Economic Strategy, it should be important for the Plan to be clear where

the needs of this sector will be met.

Note that paragraph 2.5 (p38 of the combined Plan) appears to refer to the previous

floorspace and jobs targets and should be updated to reflect the new Policy 2a

targets.


Cornwall Local Plan –

Strategic Policies

24

The changes to paragraph 1.41 seek to improve monitoring of housing delivery

across the CNAs to ensure adequate provision is achieved in the individual CNAs to

meet the established targets whilst maintaining a 5 year supply across Cornwall as a

whole.

At the recent planning appeal hearing for the housing scheme at Higher Newham

Cornwall (January 2016) Cornwall Council acknowledged that at the time it was not

able to demonstrate a 5 year supply of housing land based on the existing Local Plan

8

requirement. The shortfall in housing supply should be addressed through the

current 5 year period in accordance with the Sedgefield approach. The Local Plan

Inspector’s Preliminary Findings following the hearings in May 2015 confirmed that

the backlog of unmet affordable housing need would also need to be addressed

through the first five years whilst also meeting newly arising need. In order to meet

the affordable housing need alone would require delivery of 2,240 dwellings per

annum. This represents approximately 85% of the total annual requirement

proposed through these Further Changes.

Given the acknowledged existing shortfalls in supply of market and affordable

housing, the monitoring strategy outlined in paragraph 1.41 as amended is critical to

the delivery of housing over a sustained period. The housing trajectory set out at

Appendix 1 serves a crucial role in this regard to monitor the delivery of housing

against the Local Plan target. As amended, paragraph 1.41 advises that any

deficiency in supply should be accommodated within the CNA; working within the

targets for the individual network areas and town figures is critical to maintaining the

Local Plan strategy and distribution.

Origin3 supports the general principle of achieving the individual CNA targets and

addressing any shortfalls in delivery within the deficient CNAs to ensure the aims and

objectives of the Local Plan are met through the spatial strategy. This approach

effectively disregards any over-supply of housing in other CNAs and therefore

confirms the Council’s intention for the 52,500 target to be a minimum requirement,

rather than a ceiling figure. In this regard, the Council’s approach is to be welcomed.

However, this approach is reliant upon the proactive and rigorous monitoring of

housing delivery by the Council to ensure every effort is made to unlock development

sites within deficient CNAs. The policy provisions are inflexible with no alternative

strategy to resolve Cornwall-wide housing shortfalls if these are found to be

incapable of resolution within one or more deficient CNAs. Accordingly, there is a

clear risk that this approach could lead to a persistent under-delivery of housing

throughout the Plan period. Without positive action this could result in compounded

housing shortfalls within certain CNAs which cannot be remedied through the

monitoring provisions of the Local Plan thereby necessitating a full review of the

Local Plan and the associated spatial strategy and distribution. Provisions should be

included within paragraph 1.41 to make clear the steps the Council will take to

resolve housing shortfalls within specific CNAs and, if such steps are unsuccessful to

engage an early review of the Local Plan.



25

Origin3 supports the amendment to paragraph 1 of Policy 3 to clarify the strategic

development capability of the settlements listed within the policy. However, objection

is raised in respect of the new paragraph preceding paragraph 2 of the Policy. The

wording states that “Development within these named towns” will provide an

appropriate level of affordable housing in accordance with the requirements of Policy

9

8. Use of the word “within” indicates that there is an up to date settlement boundary

available for each of these named towns included as part of the Plan so that it would

be clear to an applicant whether their proposal is in fact within the town or outside it.

Reference should be made in the Plan to where these settlements boundaries can be

found. If however these boundaries are not available and are to be reviewed and

updated through future Plans, the policy should be reworded to say “at these named

towns” or similar.

Furthermore, the policy goes on to say “and after this requirement is met, through the

exceptions approach set out in Policy 9”. Objection is made to this text which

requires further clarification. The trigger mechanism for this provision is unclear; is

“this requirement” referring to the affordable housing requirement or the overall

housing requirement? Is this policy triggered when the requirement is met within the

requisite named town or only when it is met in full across the whole of Cornwall?

What mechanisms would be in place to monitor delivery against the relevant

requirement and notify developers and landowners when the provisions of Policy 9

would be engaged.

As outlined above, it is unclear what is regarded to be the relevant requirement for

the purposes of Policy 3. If it is referring to the strategic housing target, this should

be regarded as a minimum requirement, not a maximum ceiling figure and therefore

at no point should it be considered that the requirement has been met. If however

the affordable housing requirement is the relevant trigger, the Council’s Full

Objectively Assessed Need acknowledges that the affordable housing need for the

plan period would be for 30,910 dwellings. However, due to limitations upon delivery

of housing, total delivery of affordable housing is likely to be around 19,869

dwellings. Therefore, on the basis of the Council’s own evidence the affordable

housing “requirement” would not be met through this Local Plan and hence the

provisions of Policy 9 would not be triggered by the mechanism in Policy 3. In either

scenario, there is no basis upon which to anticipate that requirements will be met

through the Local Plan to justify a change in policy thereafter.

Policy 3 advises that in the event that the requirement is met, affordable housing

would be provided through the exceptions approach set out in Policy 9. Once more,

clarity is required on the intentions of this policy wording. It is assumed that Policy 9

would apply to all development proposals brought forward brought forward beyond

the built up areas of the named towns and would therefore raise affordable housing

requirements above 50%.

Origin3 has a number of concerns regarding this approach:

1. Policy 9 is a Rural Exceptions Sites policy. As drafted it applies to land adjacent

to existing built up areas of smaller towns, villages and hamlets whose primary

purpose is to provide affordable housing to meet local needs. The policy does

not apply to the named towns which, by definition, are capable of accommodating

development of a strategic scale.

2. Policy 9 does not comply with the NPPF definition of rural exception sites i.e.

“small sites used for affordable housing in perpetuity where sites would not

10

normally be used for housing.” No limitations are imposed through the policy to

limit the scale of development and provision is made for an element of market

housing to be included up to 50%. Whilst Origin3 does not object to the principle

of the inclusion of a market housing element, cross reference to Policy 9 within

Policy 3 effectively serves to impose a higher affordable housing requirement

upon sites which are brought forward after the “requirement” is met.

In reality, it is highly unlikely that the trigger within Policy 3 will be engaged. For the

reasons set out above, the Council acknowledges that it is unrealistic to expect

affordable housing needs to be met in full over the plan period. If the requirement

applies to the overall housing target, effective monitoring and phasing of the housing

supply should serve to ensure the housing target is not met in full until towards the

end of the plan period.

However, if the policy trigger was engaged Origin3 has fundamental concerns over

the potential implications for further housing delivery. The Viability Study – Refresh

(March 2015) prepared by Three Dragons concluded that whilst development is

generally viable and capable of providing some affordable housing, in most

circumstances the provision of 50% affordable housing would be unviable. The

Council has acknowledged this through the Further Changes to the Local Plan and

the amendments to the affordable housing requirements set out within Policy 8.

The provision of affordable housing as a developer obligation upon market housing

schemes is the most effective means of delivery of affordable housing. Therefore,

the Local Plan (in accordance with the NPPF’s requirement to boost housing supply)

should encourage delivery of market housing in order to meet local housing needs

including affordable housing needs. In order to maintain the viability of market

housing schemes at the main towns the affordable housing requirements established

through Policy 8 should be applied consistently to all relevant sites throughout the

plan period. Application of Policy 9 would be harmful to the viability of further

housing development and would therefore place a halt upon development pending a

Local Plan review.

For these reasons, the provisions of Policy 3 are unsound. The policy is not

positively prepared; it places a cap upon development which can be delivered under

the terms of Policy 8 for affordable housing delivery and applies a penalty to

subsequent developments which would be subject to the higher affordable housing

requirement of Policy 9. This would be harmful to the viability of housing schemes

and most likely stifle any further potential growth. Moreover the policy is inconsistent

with the NPPF’s intended role for rural exception sites and therefore in conflict with

national policy. For these reasons, it is recommended that reference to the

application of Policy 9 is deleted.



26

The amendments to Table 1 serve to adjust the housing targets and distribution

11

across the CNAs to reflect the amended strategic housing target of 52,500 homes.

On a general matter, the layout of the table would be improved by the subdivision of

sites with planning permission (not started) and sites under construction. By

disaggregating these figures, it would provide a clearer picture of the delivery of

housing across the CNAs, highlighting any areas with a high volume of undelivered

commitments.

The proposed amendments to the distribution of the uplift in the housing target

across the CNAs are derived from the Cornwall Local Plan Housing Distribution

paper (December 2015). This paper advises that the original distribution of housing

was based on a scale commensurate to the size of the individual settlements.

Subsequent adjustments to the figures are made to reflect areas of higher than

average housing need and those areas which are recognised through the Economic

Strategy as key locations for new employment growth. Where this results in an

uplifted housing requirement for a particular named town or CNA the constraints to

development are taken into account to ascertain whether this uplift can be

accommodated. Where settlements are particularly constrained, the equivalent level

of growth is intended to be provided elsewhere, i.e. at another named settlement

within the CNA, within a neighbouring CNA or finally within the strategic Travel to

Work Area.

Whilst this represents a logical approach to the distribution of housing, it is unclear

from the evidence how these factors have been translated through to the proposed

distribution as set out within Table 1 in the Plan, as amended.

For example, the Housing Distribution Paper sets out ‘Growth Factors’ for each of the

CNAs based on affordable housing need, Economic Strategy focus and previous

delivery. It then indicates where these factors would require an uplift in delivery or

where affordable housing needs are above the pro-rata figure for both the named

settlement and the CNA. However, the paper does not provide an overall conclusion

on the uplift requirements for the individual CNAs. Moreover, in cases where the

named town or CNA is constrained and considered incapable of accommodating the

uplift in housing, it is not clear how this uplift is then transferred to other CNAs.

For example, the West Penwith growth factors support an uplift in housing supply,

however the Council considers that the constraints at Penzance would preclude any

such uplift. It is noted that this is contrary to earlier evidence that demonstrates that

Penzance does in fact have capacity to accommodate growth. The statement is

therefore unqualified and does not provide a sound basis for shifting the need

elsewhere. The paper advises that this unquantified unmet growth would effectively

be reprovided in Camborne, Pool and Redruth by making best use of urban capacity

and brownfield development opportunities in the area. However, there is no

reference within the Camborne, Pool and Redruth section of the paper to the area

accommodating the unmet need of Penzance. In the absence of a precise figure for

the unmet growth at each of the CNAs, it is not possible to interpret the Council’s

assumptions to understand:

1. Whether the Council has undertaken a robust assessment of the residual

12

capacity of the CNA or named town to accommodate the uplift in growth;

2. Whether the identified unmet growth for constrained CNAs has been captured

through the uplift in provision at a neighbouring CNA or within the Travel to Work

Area.

In the absence of these figures, the Council’s distribution strategy and proposed uplift

in housing targets for the CNAs lack transparency and justification. Accordingly, the

proposed distribution, as currently drafted is considered to be unsound.



27

Origin3 supports the amendments to paragraph 1.43 which serve to clarify Truro’s

important role as an economic and service centre and to maintain its role at the top of

the retail hierarchy.



Strategic Policies

32

The new paragraph after Policy 4 refers to the capacity for convenience and

comparison retail provision in each town within the Plan, as detailed within the new

Table 2 (Change 33). The figures indicate that the anticipated qualitative floorspace

capacity for each town has been exceeded for the period up to at least 2019 (with the

exception of Truro only which has a modest capacity of 95 sq. m. net sales area in

2014). These results are heavily caveated by the Council, recognising the figures

represent a snapshot in time; some commitments may not be delivered and other

permissions are in the pipeline. Given these provisos, it is questionable whether the

new Table 2 serves any useful purpose within a Local Plan which may be in place for

the next 15 years.



33

See comments above in respect of Schedule Change 32.



Strategic Policies

34

The Local Plan does not propose to be prescriptive in terms of the location or nature

of most employment space in order to provide flexibility to adopt to changing markets

through the growing economy. This amendment is proposed to provide clarity,

however, in the absence of any direction on the location, scale or nature of

13

employment allocations the Local Plan fails to meet the NPPF’s objectives for plan-

making.

The NPPF requires Local Plans to be revised in whole or in part to respond flexibly to

changing circumstances (paragraph 153). Local Plans should be aspirational but

realistic, setting out opportunities for development and “clear policies on what will or

will not be permitted and where” (paragraph 154). The non-prescriptive approach

proposed through the Cornwall Local Plan is inconsistent with the NPPF in this

respect and provides no certainty of the extent of growth in key locations and

therefore it is not possible to understand the spatial implications for the proposed

housing and employment growth.

For these reasons, the amended paragraph is unsound and inconsistent with national

policy and ineffective.



38

The definition of “Strategic Employment Sites” is welcomed (p39 of the combined

plan). However it also includes mention of “a number of other sites that offer the

potential to attract specific sectors” and that “these sites will be protected for a

specific type of employment use rather than form part of the general employment

land portfolio”.

The plan currently provides no definitive list of which existing employment sites will

be considered by the Council to be ‘strategic employment sites’ within the CNAs. A

list of the strategic sites for each CNA could sit well within the economy section for

each CNA with a caveat that these will be further reviewed through future plans.

It is not clear in practice how the specific sector sites would be restricted to certain

types of uses given that changes of use are considered permitted development in

many scenarios. It could also be overly prescriptive rather allowing economic clusters

to naturally evolve. Presumably the policies related to this are intended to be

included within future Site Allocations plans.

NB: this new paragraph needs a number in the plan.



Strategic Policies

39

The split between ‘Office’ and ‘Industrial’ within this updated table appears to be

overly simplistic. To prevent misinterpretation the land use classes considered to be

included within each category should be restated here.

As noted above, the use of negative residual requirements is confusing and could act

14

as a growth constraint and deterrent to prospective new employers considering

investing in those areas which have an over-supply figure.

It would be useful if this table of floorspace targets could be linked in the explanatory

text to the CNA profile sections to show how the floorspace targets support the

delivery of the economic strategies for each area.

It is noted that the policy targets have been removed for the individual CNAs;

however an overview of the employment/ economic strategy that the floorspace

distribution has been based on would be a way of showcasing the economic vision

for each area. For example if a large amount of office/industrial growth is targeted in

Table 3 then the CNA profile could provide a more qualitative description of what

types of uses would be encouraged for that area to support that CNAs particular

needs.



40

The changes to point 4 of Policy 5: Jobs and Skills are welcomed. The new point 4

states that “existing strategic employment land and buildings will be safeguarded”.

However as noted above, there is no clear list within the Plan of which employment

land or buildings are considered by the Council to be strategic.

Furthermore it is not clear how the “loss of economic performance of the site or

location” would be assessed in practice. This could relate to number of jobs but

equally it could relate to land value or viability. It is not clear what information an

applicant would need to supply in this scenario and therefore this policy, as currently

drafted. is not considered to be positively prepared or effective. (Please note updated

point 4 needs numbering in the combined plan).



59

The proposed amendment to Policy 8 states that “Developments must provide the

target levels of affordable housing…” The scope to negotiate an alternative

affordable housing contribution is limited by Policy 8 to a variation to the proposed

mix of affordable housing products rather than a reduction in the overall contribution.

The policy, as currently drafted, is unduly rigid, providing no flexibility to take account

of the site viability and abnormal development costs which may warrant a reduced

affordable housing contribution. Unless this flexibility is reintroduced into the policy,

there is a risk that its provisions would constrain and delay affordable housing and

market housing delivery where developers are unable to agree an appropriate

contribution with the Council to enable schemes to proceed in a viable manner.

15



60

As recommended by the Inspector, the Council has revised the % for each zone to

more closely align with the Viability Study Refresh (Three Dragons Study, March

2015). The proposals for zone 1 (50%), zone 2 (40%) and zone 3 (35%) and zone 4

(30%) are all in accordance with the Viability Study's recommendations. The only

slight departure is for zone 5 for which the study recommends only 20% affordable

housing due to the viability issues in this zone. Despite this recommendation the

Council still proposes to achieve 25% affordable housing.

We welcome the amendments, but recommend a further reduction in zone 5 to

provide greater certainty to the viability and deliverability of housing schemes in this

area. Moreover, the viability study has taken into account scheme viability to

contribute towards CIL once introduced. Unless this is factored in at the plan-making

stage, it is likely to have a negative impact upon the level of CIL which an Inspector

can regard as appropriate to maintain scheme viability across Cornwall. Inspectors

are required to test that the levels of CIL proposed are appropriate for schemes

throughout the Council's area to ensure that the imposition of CIL would not have

an adverse impact upon the viability of development schemes, notwithstanding the

potential for variation in the profit margin/build costs/property/land values in different

areas of the County.

For these reasons, it is recommended that the Council reduce the affordable housing

target for zone 5 to 20% and consider an uplift in the OAN to address the 5%

difference to maximise the tolerance of development schemes across the County to

the imposition of CIL and therefore maximise the funding which can be secured

towards strategic infrastructure, whilst continuing to meet local housing needs.



147-224

The Inspector’s Advice on Other Matters (July 2015) provided guidance and advice

on the Policy Messages for Places covering the CNAs. He advised that substantial

changes to the Plan following submission could only be brought about where the

Inspector recommends a change as being necessary for soundness; changes cannot

be initiated simply to achieve a more concise plan. Deletion of the whole of the

Policy Messages for Places could be recommended by the Inspector if it served as

an effective remedy to achieve a sound plan and due consideration had been given

to any representations on the proposed deletion.

The Inspector had highlighted areas of unsoundness within the Policy Messages

where strategic housing and employment figures to which the Inspector has raised

concerns are repeated in this part of the Plan. In these instances, the Inspector has

indicated that it may be sufficient to deal with matters through the strategic policies.

Amendment to these parts of the Policy Messages would be necessary to achieve as

16

a sound plan as a minimum.

Notwithstanding the Inspector’s advice, the Council has sought to delete the majority

but not all of the Policy Messages. It appears that text has been deleted where it is

considered by the Council to duplicate the provisions of the rest of the Plan. The

residual text is disjointed, fragmented and fails to provide a full picture of the local

context for the CNAs. A significant amount of information has been now been

removed from the CNA sections and as such there are now different levels of detail

and content for each CNA.

It would be useful if a consistent level of information is provided for each CNA. In

particular the employment/economic strategies for each CNA could be set out within

these sections which would help with explaining how the employment floorspace

targets will translate into supporting the economic visions for each area. Broad

locations for growth and sites which are considered to be strategic within each CNA

could be listed for each area. These changes would bring the Plan more in line with

national planning policy as well as make more positively prepared, justified and

effective.

17

Q5 If your representation is seeking a change; do you wish to






x

If you select No, your written comments will still be considered by the independent Planning Inspector. Please note the Inspector will determine

the most appropriate procedure to adopt to hear those who have indicated that they wish to participate at the oral part of the examination. There is no right to be heard at a hearing session and it is the Inspector who


Signature

Date 07/03/16


further explanation as to what is required please contact a member of the local planning team using the email address below or telephoning 01872

224283. Data Protection


Personal information will be added to the Council’s Local Plan consultation

database and will be used to keep you informed of progress with the Local Plan and in order to consult with you further at each stage of the process

to enable you to make future comments. Personal information will also be shared with the Government appointed

planning inspector (from the Planning Inspectorate), who may wish to contact you to discuss your comments and concerns, prior to formal

examination of the Local Plan and supporting documents. Submitting your comments

We must receive all responses by 5pm on Monday 7th March 2016. Comments received after this time will not be recorded and will not be considered by the Council. We have set this deadline to ensure that all

who wish to take part in this consultation have the same timescale within which to respond.

1



Schedule of Focused Changes (September

2014)

Representation Form



by email to:

[email protected]

by post to:

Cornwall Council – Local Plans Team


Truro TR1 1EB


September 2014. We are consulting on the changes set out in this Schedule of Further Significant Changes proposed to those documents.

All representations should be submitted using this form.



comments.

552

2



Council can not accept anonymous representations.

Regulation 22 of the Town and Country Planning (Local Planning)

(England) Regulations 2012, requires all representations received to be submitted to the Secretary of State. By completing this form and

submitting it to the Council you are giving your consent to the processing of personal data by Cornwall Council and that any information received by the Council, including personal data, may be put into the public domain,

including on the Council’s website.


Name Hautot Developments Ltd

Organisation C G Fry & Son Ltd

Address line 1

Address line 2

Address line 3

Address line 4

Postcode

Telephone number

Email address

Preferred contact method Email � Post �


Name Alex Bullock (on behalf of companies

identified above)

Organisation WYG

Address line 1

Address line 2

Address line 3

Address line 4

Postcode

Telephone number

Email address

Preferred contact method Email X Post �

Q1 Do you wish to be notified of future stages in the Local Plan

including examination and adoption?

Yes XNo �

3



Soundness Paragraph 182 of the National Planning Policy Framework sets out the

consideration in relation to a plan being considered ‘sound’: • Positively prepared

• Justified • Effective • Consistent with national policy

Legal compliance

For a Local Plan to be considered legally compliant, the following needs to be determined:

• Whether the Local Plan is detailed in the current Local Development

Scheme and that the key stages have been followed, • That community involvement has been carried out in accordance

with the current Statement of Community Involvement • Whether the Local Plan makes satisfactory regard to the

Sustainable Community Strategy • That the Local Plan complies with the Planning and Compulsory

Purchase Act 2004 (as amended)



• That the Habitats Regulations Assessment is carried out in

accordance with the Conservation of Habitats and Species Regulations (The Habitats Regulations) 2010


been complied with.

Q2 A local planning authority should submit a plan for


Yes �

No X Please specify the reasons below

Please see enclosed response

4



Yes �

No X Please specify the reasons below

Please see enclosed letter



Please use a separate box for each change and state which number on the

schedule your comment refers to. Any additional comments will need to adhere to the same format as set out below.



Please see enclosed letter



Strategic Policies



5









Strategic Policies



7

Q5 If your representation is seeking a change; do you wish to participate at the examination in public? Please select one option, if you do not select a preference we will assume you

do not wish to attend.





X

If you select No, your written comments will still be considered by the independent Planning Inspector. Please note the Inspector will determine the most appropriate procedure to adopt to hear those who have indicated

that they wish to participate at the oral part of the examination. There is no right to be heard at a hearing session and it is the Inspector who


Signature Date 04/03/2016


further explanation as to what is required please contact a member of the local planning team using the email address below or telephoning 01872

224283. Data Protection

In complying with the Data Protection Act 1998 Cornwall Council confirms that it will process personal data gathered from this form only for the

purposes relating to the consultation. Personal information will be added to the Council’s Local Plan consultation

database and will be used to keep you informed of progress with the Local Plan and in order to consult with you further at each stage of the process

to enable you to make future comments. Personal information will also be shared with the Government appointed

planning inspector (from the Planning Inspectorate), who may wish to contact you to discuss your comments and concerns, prior to formal

examination of the Local Plan and supporting documents. Submitting your comments

We must receive all responses by 5pm on Monday 7th March 2016. Comments received after this time will not be recorded and will not be

considered by the Council. We have set this deadline to ensure that all who wish to take part in this consultation have the same timescale within which to respond.

Hawkridge House, Chelston Business Park, Wellington, Somerset TA21 8YA

Tel: +44 (0)1823 666 150 Fax: +44 (0)1823 666 631 Email: [email protected] www.wyg.com WYG Environment Planning Transport Limited. Registered in England & Wales Number: 3050297 Registered Office: Arndale Court, Headingley, Leeds, LS6 2UJ

Ref: AJB/A073342

Email:

4th March 2016

Local Plans Team

Cornwall Council


Truro Cornwall

TR1 1EB

Dear Sir/Madam

SCHEDULE OF FURTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE CORNWALL LOCAL PLAN: STRATEGIC POLICIES – CONSULTATION 25th JANUARY TO 7th MARCH 2016

On behalf of our clients, Hautot Developments Ltd & C G Fry & Son Ltd, we have been instructed to make

representations on Cornwall Council’s (the Council) proposed amendments to Cornwall Local Plan: Strategic

Policies. Our comments focus on the following policies:

• Policy 2a: Key targets

• Policy 3: Role and function of places

• Policy 6: Housing mix

• Policy 8: Affordable housing

• Policy 14: Development standards and the associated supporting text

Policy 2a: Key targets

This is a new policy and sets out the minimum housing targets for the identified Community Network Areas

(CNA). We note that this policy also proposes an increase from 47,500 homes to 52,500 over the plan

period. We welcome this uplift but still consider it may well fall short of the full Objectively Assessed Needs

(OAN) for Cornwall in line with our earlier representations.

The increase to 52,500 sees an increase to the amount of development assigned to the Newquay and St

Columb CAN to 4,800. Whilst this increase is welcomed we consider that there may well be scope for

further increases in this location should it be found that the overall OAN be higher than 52,500. Newquay

in particular is a highly sustainable location which is to be



provided with enhanced infrastructure (through the delivery of the NSR) and will likely see additional

employment growth associated with the Aerohub and associated industries. We therefore are of the view

that Newquay could easily accommodate further housing.

Policy 3: Role and function of places

We welcome the identification of a larger geographical area in relation to Newquay through the inclusion of

the ‘Quintrell Downs’. This is particularly important given the location of the Newquay Growth Area and

best reflects the likely direction of growth in this location.

Policy 6: Housing Mix

We note that Policy 6 has now been amended to include two additional provisions on larger development

sites over 100 units. These are:

• For sites of 100+ units the requirement for at least 5% of the total plots to be serviced as

self/custom build plots; and

• For sites of 200+ dwellings to provide additional specialised housing (including extra care) where

there is demand to meet defined specialist needs.

Whilst we have no particular aversion to the provision of self-build plots, we consider that this amendment

has been introduced at a late stage and remain unconvinced that there is sufficient evidence to justify its

inclusion. We would suggest that in a similar manner to the specialised housing, the 5% self-build plot

provision should only be required where there is sufficient local demand to necessitate on-site provision.

Policy 8: Affordable Housing

Policy 8 has been amended to re-classify Newquay (in Zone 3) from needing to provide 40% affordable

housing to 35%. Whilst we welcome this amendment given our understanding of land values within

Newquay we believe that there would be merit for a further reduction below 35%.

Policy 14: Development Standards

We object to the proposed amendments to Policy 14 for the following key reasons:

1. Not currently nationally adopted standards

2. Lack of local evidence to justify local deficiency



3. Conflict with National Planning Policy

4. Viability impacts

5. Housebuilder standards

Context

The proposed amendments see a new criterion 1 being inserted which reads as follows:

“Sufficient internal space in housing for everyday activities and to enable flexibility and adaptability by

meeting nationally described space standards;”

The nationally described space standards are referenced in paragraph 2.53 which cites the ‘Technical

housing standards – nationally described space standard (March 2015).

At the time of writing the Planning and Housing Bill 2015-16 is still working its way through the

parliamentary process (currently at the third reading stage in the House of Lords) and as such the clauses

contained within the Bill remain in draft. The current version contains Clause 50 – Minimum space

standards for new dwellings which proposes to amend Part M of the Building Regulations to incorporate

those nationally described space standards as described above.

Objection

1. Not currently nationally adopted standards

As noted above the Planning and Housing Bill has not yet received Royal Assent, therefore clauses

contained within the Bill remain draft with no certainty that they will be delivered into law. This raises two

inter related issues.

Firstly, Clause 50 as currently drafted proposes to make amendments to Part M of the Building Regulations.

Should this be the case then there is no requirement for planning policies to seek to control matters which

are controlled via other legislation.

Secondly, it is considered premature, given the status of the Bill and Clause 50, to seek to impose controls

which have no legal or any other status i.e. said standards are not yet enforceable.



2. Lack of local evidence to justify local deficiency

In proposing this amendment the Council has provided no evidence to suggest that the existing housing

stock in the district is deficient or to suggest that the housing market is failing to deliver a range of house

types and sizes to meet identified and evidence local needs. There is no evidence to conclude that control

over dwelling sizes is required and this policy amendment is therefore not justified.

3. Conflict with National Planning Policy

Paragraph 50 of the National Planning Policy Framework (NPPF) states that in order to deliver a wide

choice of high quality homes, local planning authorities should “identify the size, type, tenure and range of

housing in particular locations, reflecting local demand.” We consider that the Council has made no such

assessment to support draft Policy 14.

4. Viability impacts

In making this amendment the Council has not considered the viability impacts of the standards upon

returns for affordable and open market homes. The standards proposed by the amendments to Policy 14

exceed the current Homes and Communities Agency standards that are currently used for affordable

housing construction and funding calculations.

The provision of additional floorspace would increase build cost with no matched receipt for them the sale

of affordable dwellings from Registered Providers (RPs). This would compound the substantial negative

effect of reduced receipts from RPs already experienced as a response to recent changes to national policy

such as the 1% reduction in social rent income.

5. Housebuilder standards

We are aware that the proposed minimum dwelling sizes would exceed most housebuilders standard house

types, however this would not lead to an equivalent increase in open market sales value. Policy 14 will

undoubtedly have an impact upon the viability and delivery of affordable and open market housing that has

not been tested through appropriate evidence by the Council.



Based on these reasons and in accordance with Paragraph 182 of the NPPF, that requires that planning

policies to be prepared positively, justified, effective and consistent with national policy, we consider that

the proposed amendment to Policy 14 should be deleted. We are broadly supportive of the other policies

discussed in this consultation response subject to the appropriate demonstration of an adequate evidence

base to support those changes.

Yours sincerely

Alex Bullock Senior Planner For and on behalf of WYG

March 2016

Cornwall Local Plan Strategic Policies: Consultation on schedule of further significant

changes Representations on behalf of Linden Homes

554

554

Cornwall Local Plan Strategic Policies: Consultation on schedule of further significant changes Representations on behalf of Linden Homes

2

1.0 Introduction

1.1 These representations are submitted on behalf of Linden Homes.

1.2 Linden Homes has several land interests in Cornwall, including an option agreement in

respect of 1.7 hectares of land at Swanpool Road on the southern edge of Falmouth.

1.3 Linden Homes has made representations at each of the previous consultation stages in

respect of the preparation of the Cornwall Local Plan Strategic Policies document and so

welcomes the opportunity to comment upon the schedule of further significant changes

which are proposed in response to the findings of the Local Plan Inspector in his letter

dated 11 June 2015 which followed hearings held in May 2015.

1.4 Linden’s previous representations expressed concern that the level of growth being

proposed by the Council would not facilitate the step change in housing delivery over the

next 20 years that the suite of evidence base papers had made clear would be needed to

ensure that the current and future housing needs of Cornwall are met fall well short of

delivering the number of affordable homes that are required. They also advocated a

directing a greater proportion of the required growth towards the larger settlements, thus

reflecting national policy and sustainability objectives. Finally, Linden’s previous

representations objected to the proposed affordable housing targets which were not

justified by or consistent with the relevant evidence base underpinning them.

2.0 Comments on the schedule of further significant changes

2.1 The significant changes proposed include the following:

1. an increase to the overall housing target to 52,500 following a reassessment of the

Full Objectively Assessed Need for Cornwall;

2. distribution of this new target to meet need across Cornwall;

3. revised affordable housing percentages;

4. provide additional detail on European Special Areas of Conservation;


3

1. Overall Housing Target

2.2 Linden Homes has recently commissioned NLP to undertake its own objective assessment

of Cornwall’s housing needs to assist in the consideration of a Section 78 appeal. In light of

the Local Plan Inspector’s concerns, as expressed in his letter of 11 June 2015, in respect of

the Council’s objective assessment of housing needs, NLP’s assessment is attached as

Appendix 1 of these representations in order that it can also assist the Local Plan Inspector

in respect of the examination of the Plan.

2.3 The Council contends that its revised assessment includes updated demographic

projections, an assessment of the impact of market signals, the economic strategies and

job projections, the need for affordable homes, the impact of second and holiday homes,

and how the Plan supports the needs of particular groups. However, we are concerned

that, as it has consistently sought to do throughout its preparation of the Plan, the Council

is continuing to propose a constrained housing requirement representing the minimum it

considers can be justified, rather than what is actually required to meet the substantial

need.

2.4 The Council’s revised housing target of 52,500 is significantly less than the range of

between 58,508 and 66,214 dwellings which the NLP assessment concludes is appropriate

but also conservative. The NLP assessment concludes that a demographic-led scenario

would not provide a sufficient level of population to support expected levels of economic

growth, contribute towards the delivery of affordable housing or respond to evidence of

market pressure. It advocates that significant adjustments are therefore required to reflect

these considerations and that an upward adjustment above demographic-led needs is

appropriate and would also help to deliver affordable housing and support economic

growth.

2.5 On this basis, Linden Homes objects to the Council’s proposed revised housing target which

it considers is not consistent with national policy, specifically paragraph 47 of the NPPF

which requires that the supply of housing is boosted significantly and paragraph 19 of the


4

NPPF, which seeks to ensure the planning system does everything it can to support

sustainable economic growth.

2. Distribution of housing

2.6 As is mentioned above, Linden Homes objected to the dispersed approach to development

in Cornwall set out in the submitted version of the Plan. In principle, we would support an

upwards adjustment in the main towns and villages.

2.7 However, we consider that the proposed changes do not go far enough to properly reflect

the economic strategies and the demand for affordable housing in some of the main

towns.

2.8 In Falmouth and Penryn, the proposed housing allocation has only increased from 2,600

dwellings to be delivered by 2030 to 2,800. This is despite the Council’s evidence base

paper entitled Growth Factors – Falmouth and Penryn Community Network Area (CNA) -

published in 2012, stating that the population of the area could grow by around 12,000

over the next twenty years if current trends continue and a significant number of new

homes will need to be provided to accommodate this increase in population. The number

of new households in the area is forecast to grow by over 6,500 over the same period and

many of these households will require additional homes to be built.

2.9 The Growth Factors document also sets out that there is a need for almost 1,200 additional

affordable homes to be provided over the next ten years to accommodate those already in

housing need within the area. The Council’s Housing Team confirmed in response to a

planning application in 2015 that in Falmouth alone, the Cornwall housing register, known

as Cornwall Homechoice, had 972 applicants in housing need meeting the Falmouth local

connection criteria.

2.10 Part of the reason for this significant need is that there has been only a 14% increase in

dwelling numbers between 1991-2010 compared with an average of 20% across Cornwall.

This has equated to 125 new dwellings per annum being delivered in the area. The area has


5

experienced lower levels of growth than on average and the predicted level of population

growth indicates that it is likely to be an area that will need to significantly increase its

current level of development to meet future demand for housing.

2.11 The Growth Factors document sets out that about 1.5% of Falmouth’s dwellings were

registered as empty properties in 2011 - Cornwall average 1.7% (2011) - and 8.6% of

properties were registered as second homes – Cornwall average 10.7%. These figures

indicate that a low proportion of dwellings remain vacant in the town and that there is a

lower than average level of competition from other types of dwelling occupiers i.e. most

dwellings are used by permanent residents.

2.12 Economic growth in Falmouth is focussed on providing for marine businesses and building

on the benefits of proximity to Falmouth University. There is also a good balance in the

population between working age people and the more dependent younger and older age

groups.

2.13 The area is clearly therefore one where the Council’s own evidence is that the economic

and affordable housing need would justify a greater uplift than is now proposed and we

consider that the Plan should seek to achieve this.

3. Revised Affordable housing percentages

2.14 We support the proposed changes to the affordable housing targets of 50% in Zone 1, 40%

in Zone 2, 35% in Zone 3, 30% in Zone 4 and 25% in Zone 5 as recommended by the Local

Plan Inspector in his preliminary findings and by Linden in its previous representations.

2.15 These revised targets now reflect the relevant evidence base underpinning them.

4. Provide additional detail on European Special Areas of Conservation

2.16 In respect of revised draft Policy 23a, the wording should be reviewed and revised so that

it is clearer that developer contributions will not be sought to establish a better evidence

base as this is not mitigation. Development proposals either have an effect or not.


6

Developers should not have to pay a contribution to find out if a proposal will have an

impact, only to mitigate against an impact where it will have one.

2.17 Where it is unclear whether there would be an effect or not, the precautionary principle

could be applied in circumstances where there may be an absence of evidence. However,

this should trigger a need for mitigation, not for further evidence-base gathering.

2.18 Policy 23 states under 4(b) that there should be no net loss and a net gain in biodiversity.

However, under ‘Mitigation’, it states ‘wherever possible, biodiversity enhancement (i.e.

gain) should also be provided’. We consider that the wording of the policy should be much

clearer on exactly what it is requiring.

3.0 Summary/Conclusions

3.1 The key points arising from these representations can be summarised as follows:

Linden Homes objects to the Council’s proposed revised housing target of 52,500

which it considers does not represent the full objectively assessed need.

Linden Homes supports the NLP housing needs assessment, attached as Appendix

1, which concludes that a figure of between 58,508 and 66,214 dwellings would be

more appropriate, albeit still conservative.

Linden Homes objects to the revised distribution of housing which still doesn’t

focus enough growth within the main towns. Falmouth is clearly a town where the

economic and affordable housing need would justify a greater uplift than is now

proposed and the Plan should seek to achieve this.

Linden Homes supports the revised affordable housing targets as recommended by

the Local Plan Inspector in his preliminary findings and by Linden in its previous


7

representations as these now reflect the relevant evidence base underpinning

them.

Linden Homes considers that the wording of revised polices 23a and 23 requires

further review.


8

Appendix 1

Land to the south of St Georges Road, Hayle Objective Assessment of Housing Need in Cornwall Linden Homes South West

February 2016

APP/D0840/W/15/3006077

PA14/09315

Nathaniel Lichfield & Partners

Helmont House

Churchill Way

Cardiff CF10 2HE

nlpplanning.com

© Nathaniel Lichfield & Partners Ltd 2016. Trading as Nathaniel Lichfield & Partners.

All Rights Reserved.

Registered Office:

14 Regent's Wharf

All Saints Street

London N1 9RL

All plans within this document produced by NLP are based upon Ordnance Survey mapping with the permission

of Her Majesty’s Stationery Office. © Crown Copyright reserved. Licence number AL50684A

Land to the south of St Georges Road, Hayle : Objective Assessment of Housing Need in Cornwall

10737655v5

Contents

1.0 Introduction 1

HEaDROOM .................................................................................................... 1

Structure .......................................................................................................... 2

2.0 Legal and Planning Background 3

3.0 Cornwall Local Plan 5

4.0 Approach to Assessment 9

ONS 2012-based Sub National Population Projections .................................... 9

CLG 2012-based Sub National Household Projections .................................. 11

Mid Year Estimates ........................................................................................ 13

5.0 Objective Assessment of Housing Need 15

Summary of Assumptions .............................................................................. 16

6.0 Demographic Scenarios 21

Scenario A: 2012-based Sub-National Population and Household Projections

...................................................................................................................... 21

Scenario B: Long Term Migration Trends ....................................................... 22

Summary ....................................................................................................... 24

7.0 Economic Scenarios 26

Scenario C: Experian ..................................................................................... 26

Scenario D: LEP Employment Growth ........................................................... 28

Summary ....................................................................................................... 30

8.0 Affordable Housing Scenario 31

9.0 Summary of Scenarios 33

Scenario Analysis .......................................................................................... 33

Conclusion ..................................................................................................... 39

10.0 Taking Account of Market Signals 40

House Prices ................................................................................................. 41

Affordability .................................................................................................... 43

Rental Values ................................................................................................ 44

Overcrowding ................................................................................................. 45

Rate of Development ..................................................................................... 46

Affordable Housing ........................................................................................ 47

:

10737655v5

Synthesis of Market Signals ........................................................................... 49

11.0 Distribution within Cornwall 50

12.0 Conclusion 53

Objectively assessed need for housing .......................................................... 54

Starting point – demographic needs ............................................................... 54

Do market signals indicate the need for an upwards adjustment to purely

demographic led needs? ................................................................................ 56

Is there a need to increase housing supply to meet the economic potential of

Cornwall? ....................................................................................................... 57

Is there a need to increase housing supply to aid the delivery of affordable

housing? ........................................................................................................ 58

Conclusion on full objectively assessed housing need ................................... 59


10737655v5

Figures

Figure 4.1 Components of population change in Cornwall, 2012-2030 ........................... 11

Figure 4.2 Net Internal, Internal and Total Migration in Cornwall, 2004/5-2013/14 ......... 14

Figure 10.1 House Prices Indices - Cornwall and England, 1995-2014 ............................ 42

Figure 10.2 Average House Prices in Cornwall and England ........................................... 42

Figure 10.3 Affordability Ratio in Cornwall and England ................................................... 44

Figure 10.4 Rental prices in Cornwall and England .......................................................... 45

Figure 12.1 NLP HEaDROOM Analytical Framework for Assessing Housing Requirements

...................................................................................................................... 61

Tables

Table 3.1 Output of updated modelling by Edge Analytics – household growth, 2012-

2035 ................................................................................................................ 5

Table 3.2 Dwelling implications associated with updated modelling by Edge Analytics,

2012-2035 ....................................................................................................... 6

Table 4.1 Comparison of 2011-based interim SNHP and 2012 SNHP Sensitivity Test 1

between 2012 and 2021 – Cornwall .............................................................. 12

Table 4.2 Net Internal, Internal and Total Migration in Cornwall, 2004/5-2013/14 .......... 14

Table 5.1 Population, Housing and Employment Change, Cornwall: 2010-14................ 16

Table 5.2 Unemployment rate in Cornwall, 2004-2014 .................................................. 17

Table 5.3 Commuting Ratios for Cornwall ...................................................................... 18

Table 5.4 Second homes and vacant dwellings in Cornwall, 2011-2014 ........................ 19

Table 6.1 Summary of 2012-based SNPP/SNHP Scenario ............................................ 21

Table 6.2 Headship Sensitivity Test for 2012-based SNPP/SNHP Scenario .................. 22

Table 6.3 Summary of Long Term Migration Trend Scenario ......................................... 22

Table 6.4 Headship Sensitivity Test for 10 year Migration Trend Scenario .................... 23

Table 6.5 UPC Sensitivity Test for 10 year Migration Trend Scenario ............................ 24

Table 6.6 UPC and Headship Sensitivity Test for 10 year Migration Trend Scenario ..... 24

Table 7.1 Summary of Experian-based Jobs Scenario .................................................. 27

Table 7.2 Headship Sensitivity Test for Experian Scenario ............................................ 27

Table 7.3 Summary of LEP-based Jobs Scenario .......................................................... 28

Table 7.4 Headship Sensitivity Test for LEP Scenario ................................................... 29

Table 7.5 Continuation of LEP Strategy Scenario .......................................................... 29

Table 7.6 Headship Sensitivity / Continuation of LEP Strategy Scenario ....................... 29

Table 8.1 Main settlements by price zone ...................................................................... 31

Table 9.1 Summary of Demographic Scenarios ............................................................. 33

Table 9.2 Summary of Economic Scenarios ................................................................. 33

Table 9.3 Demographic profile of population change ..................................................... 38

Table 9.4 Natural change associated with different scenarios ........................................ 38

:

10737655v5

Table 10.1 House Price change in Cornwall and England ............................................... 43

Table 10.2 Affordability Ratio Data .................................................................................. 44

Table 10.3 Overcrowded households in Cornwall and England ....................................... 46

Table 10.4 Dwelling completions in Cornwall UA from 2001/02 to 2013/14 ...................... 47

Table 10.5 Affordable housing completions from 2003/04 to 2013/14 .............................. 48

Table 12.1 Summary of Demographic Scenarios ............................................................. 53

Table 12.2 Summary of Economic Scenarios ................................................................. 54

Table 13.1 Experian Employment Forecasts for Cornwall ................................................ 91


10737655v5

Appendices

Appendix 1 HEaDROOM Framework

Appendix 2 Legal and Policy Background

Appendix 3 PopGroup Output Sheets

Appendix 4 Experian Business Strategies Employment Projections for Cornwall


10737655v5 P1

1.0 Introduction

1.1 This report has been prepared by Nathaniel Lichfield and Partners (NLP) on

behalf of Linden Homes South West. It considers the housing need for

Cornwall over the period from 2010 to 2030 and concludes by demonstrating

that the full objectively assessed housing need (FOAN) for Cornwall over this

period is between 58,508 and 66,214 dwellings (2,925 to 3,311 dpa).

1.2 The report has been prepared to assist the Inspector into the appeal that has

been made by Linden Homes South West against the failure of Cornwall

Council to determine a planning application for 222 dwellings, associated

public open space and the provision of land to facilitate the expansion of

Penpol Primary School. However, it does not address any site specific matters

and should be read in conjunction with the planning evidence of Mr Upton.

HEaDROOM

1.3 The analysis set out within this report is based upon NLP’s bespoke framework

for objectively assessing local housing requirements, HEaDROOM (so called

because of the Housing, Economic and Demographic factors that feed into it).

Since July 2010, it has been used by developers and Local Authorities to

quantify the local housing need in over 200 locations.

1.4 HEaDROOM has:

1 Formed the evidence base of Local Plans which have subsequently been

found sound (including in Ribble Valley and East Hampshire);

2 Been used to successfully support the case of developers and

landowners at Local Plan Examinations (including at South

Worcestershire and Eastleigh); and,

3 Informed successful appeal cases (including in North Tyneside,

Winchester and Central Bedfordshire).

1.5 A summary of the HEaDROOM approach is set out in Appendix 1.


10737655v5 P2

Structure

1.6 This report is structured as follows:

- Section 2 provides the policy and legal background to the

consideration of the housing requirement by this inquiry;

- Section 3 reviews the approach that has been taken by Cornwall

Council in respect of its emerging Local Plan and focuses in

particular upon the Inspector’s preliminary findings;

- Section 4 provides an overview of the approach that has been

taken to the assessment of housing needs;

- Sections 5 to 9 provides an objective assessment of the need for

housing in Cornwall;

- Section 10 contains an assessment of market indicators;

- Section 11 considers the distribution of the housing need across

Cornwall; and,

- Section 12 sets out a summary and conclusions.

1.7 A more detailed legal and planning policy background is set out in Appendix 2.


10737655v5 P3

2.0 Legal and Planning Background

2.1 Before considering what the FOAN is for Cornwall and the impact of this upon

the housing supply position, it is important to understand the relevant policy

and legal judgments that relate to these aspects and dictate the manner in

which matters must be considered. Appendix 2 provides a detailed overview of

the relevant High Court and Court of Appeal Judgments and appeal decisions,

but a summary is set out below.

2.2 Applying the National Planning Policy Framework (NPPF) and Planning

Practice Guidance (PPG) requires the following steps to be taken in order to

arrive at a robustly evidenced and objective assessment of housing need:

a The starting point is for Local Plans to meet the full objectively assessed

development needs of their area (NPPF 16, 17, 47, 156 and 158). Plan

makers should not apply constraints to the overall assessment of need

(PPG 2a-004). This should be viewed within the context of the NPPF

requirement for local planning authorities to “boost significantly the

supply of housing” (NPPF 47).

b An objective assessment of housing need must be a level of housing

delivery that meets the needs associated with population and household

growth, addresses the needs for all types of housing, including

affordable, and caters for housing demand (NPPF 159).

c Housing projections published by DCLG should provide the starting point

to any estimation of housing need but adjustments should be made to

reflect economic trends and market signals (PPG 2a-015 and 020).

d Consideration should also be given to the likely level of future growth in

employment. Particular consideration should be given to the scale and

location of new housing where the labour force supply is less than

projected job growth (PPG 2a-018).

e Where an authority is unable to meet its objectively assessed

development needs, it must be demonstrated under the statutory duty-to-

cooperate that the unmet need is to be met in another local authority

area in order to fully meet development requirements across housing

market areas (NPPF 179 and 182).


10737655v5 P4

2.3 In addition, the Courts and Planning Inspectors have determined that:

a Consideration of the housing need position is necessary in the

determination of any proposal for residential development in order to

understand whether a 5 year supply exists or not.

b Local planning authorities must have a clear understanding of the

housing needs for their administrative area and the housing market area

(HMA) as a whole.

c A distinction exists between FOAN (policy off) and Housing

Requirements (policy on).

d The FOAN should not be based upon a constrained figure.

e Consideration of constraints is only acceptable when assessing the

ability of an area to satisfy the FOAN but this should be dealt with

through the Local Plan process.

f The “policy-on” exercise that is undertaken as part of the assessment of

housing requirements does not have any bearing upon the FOAN but

rather upon the extent to which those needs can be satisfied.

g Assessment of the FOAN as part of a planning application or s.78 appeal

would not prejudice or undermine the emerging Local Plan process.

h Where there is no Local Plan, the housing requirement for a local

authority for the purposes of paragraph 47 is the FOAN.

i In assessing the FOAN for any area, economic considerations, migration

trends, second homes and vacancy rates should all be taken into

account. Judgments are required in respect of these matters but such

judgments do not constitute policy decisions.

j Rather than the inclusion of employment trends being policy-on, quite the

opposite is true such that failing to accommodate the additional workers

drawn to an area by increased employment opportunities would be a

policy-on decision which would affect adjoining authorities.

k Consideration should be given to the need for affordable housing in

seeking to ascertain the FOAN, but such needs do not have to be met in

full when determining the FOAN.


10737655v5 P5

3.0 Cornwall Local Plan

3.1 The Cornwall Local Plan: Strategic Policies Document was submitted to the

Secretary of State on 6 February 2015 and covers the period from 2010 to

2030. It provides for 47,500 dwellings (2,300 dpa). This figure was set out

within the Strategic Housing Market Needs Assessment (SHMNA, July 2013)

and based on the 2010 based Sub National Population Projections (SNPP)

and the application of a 3% vacancy rate.

3.2 Updated analysis was undertaken by Edge Analytics in March 2015, taking

account of the 2012 based SNPP and Sub National Household Projections

(SNHP), as well as a series of past trend based scenarios (5 year and 17 year

based scenarios) and the 2008 based SNHP. It identified the following levels of

household change between 2012 and 2035:

Table 3.1 Output of updated modelling by Edge Analytics – household growth, 2012-2035

2012 SNHP 2008 SNHP

2012 SNPP 50,471 52,905

5 year trend 45,319 47,639

17 year trend 54,473 57,081

Source: Cornwall Population and Household Forecasts, Edge Analytics, March 2015

3.3 The analysis undertaken by Edge Analytics did not convert households to

dwellings nor consider economic alignment issues, although it did recommend

that the Council consider further analysis of the link between future

demographic change and forecasts of economic growth, as recommended by

the PPG. Given the time period considered by Edge Analytics and scope of its

work (which also did not include any assessment of market signals or

affordable housing need), the report did not make any recommendations on

the FOAN for Cornwall over the Local Plan period.

3.4 Application of the 3% rate for vacancies proposed by the Local Plan and the

10% rate for vacancies and second homes, as advocated by the Inspector

would result in the following levels of housing need between 2012 and 2035:


10737655v5 P6

Table 3.2 Dwelling implications associated with updated modelling by Edge Analytics, 2012-2035

2012 SNHP 2008 SNHP

3% Vacancy 10% Vacancy / Second Homes

3% Vacancy 10% Vacancy / Second Homes

2012 SNPP 51,985

(2,260 dpa)

55,518

(2,413 dpa)

54,492

(2,369 dpa)

58,196

(2,530 dpa)

5 year trend 46,679

(2,030 dpa)

49,851

(2,167 dpa)

49,068

(2,133 dpa)

52,403

(2,278 dpa)

17 year trend 56,107

(2,439 dpa)

59,920

(2,605 dpa)

58,793

(2,556 dpa)

62,789

(2,730 dpa)

Source: Cornwall Population and Household Forecasts, Edge Analytics, March 2015

3.5 The Local Plan examination started on 18 May 2015 and the Inspector issued

his preliminary findings (dated 5 June 2015) after the first week of hearings. He

recommended the suspension of the examination to allow for additional work to

be undertaken.

3.6 The Inspector emphasised the policy requirement to consider an uplift in

response to market signals and affordable housing need, ensure alignment

between employment growth and housing supply, and the importance of

ensuring that adequate consideration is given to holiday and second homes in

converting figures for the future change in households to an indication of

dwelling need.

3.7 As to his specific comments relating to these (and other) matters:

a The Inspector accepted in paragraph 3.3 that “Cornwall is sufficiently

aligned with a single housing market area for housing needs to be

considered on a Cornwall-only basis”.

b He concluded that the work undertaken by Edge Analytics relied upon

more robust data than was available for use in the SHMNA, but noted

that it did not consider the Plan period in full and required additional work

to be undertaken to assess the housing growth between 2010 and 2012

so that the full Plan period could be covered.

c The Inspector noted issues associated with short term trend based

projections being overly influenced by trends experienced during the

recession and concluded that a 10 to 12 year trend would be reasonable;

this conclusion effectively rules out the PG5yr scenario that was

assessed by Edge Analytics.


10737655v5 P7

d The Inspector noted that the headship rates contained within the 2012-

based SNHP are higher than those contained within the 2011-based

SNHP headship rates but still incorporate some recessionary effects. In

response to this, he advocated an approach that applied a blended

approach which took account of the 2008-based rates, albeit that he

acknowledged that there is now no basis to rely upon the 2008-based

rates in isolation.

e Instead of advocating a specific uplift upon the demographic baseline to

take account of market signals (as he did in Eastleigh), Inspector

Emmerson questioned the deliverability of any uplift large enough to

make a significant difference to market signals. However, he did state

that the Council should consider whether an uplift to the demographic

projection is required to achieve alignment between housing and

economic growth. In paragraph 3.14 he stated that “it would be counter-

productive for the success of [the LEP economic] strategy if population

growth and the resulting increase in the workforce was out of step with

the strategy”. Paragraph 3.27 goes on to state that “the Council will need

to demonstrate that there will be a suitable alignment between economic

development, job and workforce growth and the housing requirement”.

f In respect of employment growth, Paragraph 3.27 of the Inspector’s

Preliminary Findings states that the past high rate of job growth in

Cornwall neither took account of the LEP’s economic strategy nor

overcame the structural weaknesses in the economy. He stated that he

endorsed the LEP strategy and “do(es) not consider that reliance on past

trends or the economic projections in the SHMNA are an appropriate

basis for assessing the housing requirement”.

g In respect of affordable housing, the Inspector acknowledged the very

high level of need identified in the SHMNA and noted that expected

delivery is likely to be below the Council’s calculation of need over the

Plan period. He went on to indicate that he “cannot see in evidence any

serious, objective consideration, as required by national guidance, as to

the scope for further narrowing the gap between identified need and

expected delivery by some increase in market housing” (Paragraph

3.19). However, he went on to accept that national guidance “does not

automatically require a mechanistic increase in the overall housing


10737655v5 P8

requirement to achieve all affordable housing needs based on the

proportion required from market sites”. Therefore whilst the Inspector did

not necessarily advocate that the FOAN for Cornwall should

automatically be increased to the level that would be required to meet the

affordable housing need, he was concerned that it had not been

adequately incorporated into the Council’s assessment of its FOAN over

the Plan period.

h The Inspector expressed concern that inadequate account had been

given to second / holiday homes in the conversion of the household

projections to a dwelling need figure. Whilst acknowledging that the PPG

does not identify second / holiday homes as ‘need’, the acquisition of

properties for such purposes could remove them from the stock available

for the needs which had been assessed and so he concluded that an

allowance should be made for second / holiday homes. This is in line with

standard practice in assessing FOAN. The Inspector suggested that a

7% allowance should be applied for second / holiday homes, in addition

to a 3% vacancy rate.

3.8 The Inspector clearly had significant concerns about the housing requirement

set out in the draft Local Plan such that he required a substantial amount of

additional work to be undertaken prior to the resumption of the examination. In

the light of his conclusions, the figure of 47,500 dwellings can be afforded no

weight as an indication of the FOAN for Cornwall. The Council has effectively

acknowledged this in its Rule 6 Statement for this appeal; paragraph 5.15

states that “there are credible arguments to be had that point to a higher

objectively assessed need. Therefore, in the absence of a tested objectively

assessed housing need, on balance we are currently unable to say whether or

not we have a five year supply and therefore paragraph 49 of the NPPF should

prevail”.

3.9 This adds to the conclusions of Inspector Emmerson and helps to emphasises

the value of this evidence which provides a robust indication of the FOAN in

Cornwall and thereby helps to quantify the Council’s housing land position. The

fact that the Council has accepted that paragraph 49 (and therefore paragraph

14) of the NPPF should be invoked clearly demonstrates its concern regarding

the fragility of the housing land position within Cornwall.


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4.0 Approach to Assessment

4.1 As set out in Section 2, the NPPF requires local planning authorities to apply

up-to-date and relevant evidence in order to establish their housing

requirement figures. For this reason, in seeking to identify the objectively

assessed housing requirement, consideration must be given to the key recent

data sets relating to population and household formation, which have a direct

bearing upon future housing needs. Of particular relevance in this regard are:

a The ONS 2012-based Sub National Population Projections (SNPP)

(released 29 May 2014) which provide updated population projections at

a district level and supersede the previous 2011-based Interim SNPP

(released in 2013); and,

b The CLG 2012-based Sub National Household Projections (SNHP)

(released 27 February 2015) which provide updated Government

projections of household formation both nationally and at a local authority

level, including revised household representative rates underpinning the

projections. These supersede the previous 2011-based Interim SNHP

(released in 2013).

4.2 Consideration should also be given to the latest Mid Year Sub National

Population Estimates (2012, 2013 and 2014-based) (MYE) which post-date the

SNPP.

ONS 2012-based Sub National Population Projections

4.3 The 2012-based SNPP project the population of all local authorities in England

over the period from 2012 to 2037 and are based on the assumption that the

demographic trends (births, deaths and in/out migration) that were experienced

between 2007 and 2012 will continue in the future. As such, they draw upon

trends that were experienced during a time of economic downturn.

4.4 The projections do not take account of planned and emerging policies that are

yet to take place and no allowance is made for potential future improvements

in the national or local economy.


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4.5 The 2012-based SNPP represent a “full” set of projections, which draw upon

an updated set of underlying fertility, mortality and migration trends. The SNPP

are consistent with the 2012-based national population projections and take

account of information from the 2011 Census. They differ from the 2011-based

interim SNPP which did not update fertility, mortality or migration rates from

those used in the 2010-based projections and which, because of the lower

quality of data used in them, only covered a 10 year period (2011-2021).

4.6 The 2012-based SNPP anticipate that the population of Cornwall 78,900

between 2012 and 2030 (+14.7%), equivalent to 4,383 persons per annum.

4.7 The majority of this growth is amongst persons aged 65 and over. The 2012-

based SNPP anticipate an increase of 45% of persons within this cohort

between 2012 and 2030 in Cornwall, compared to a 2.5% increase in the

number of persons aged between 20 and 64 over the same period. The

increase in the number of persons aged 65 and older (3,033 persons per

annum) is projected to be over seven times the increase in the number of

persons aged between 20 and 64 (420 persons per annum).

4.8 A consequence of the ageing population is that natural change is expected to

make only a very limited contribution to the overall population change in

Cornwall. The SNPP anticipates that the population will increase by just 521

persons between 2012 and 2030 as a result of natural change (29 pa). It is

expected that the number of deaths will exceed the number of births after

2026.

4.9 Migration is therefore expected to represent the dominant component of

population change over the period to 2030, and over 96% of net migration to

Cornwall will comprise movements from elsewhere in the UK. Between 2012

and 2030, domestic migration is expected to account for an additional 75,765

people in Cornwall, compared to 2,594 as a result of international migration.


10737655v5 P11

Figure 4.1 Components of population change in Cornwall, 2012-2030

Source: 2012-based SNPP

4.10 The 2012-based SNPP anticipates a level of population growth that is 13.0%

below the 2011-based interim SNPP over the period from 2012 to 2021:

1 2011-based interim SNPP: 46,535 additional persons between 2012 and

2021 (5,171 p.a.);

2 2012-based SNPP: 40,500 additional persons between 2012 and 2021

(4,500 p.a.).

CLG 2012-based Sub National Household Projections

4.11 The CLG household projections are trend based and identify the change in the

number of households that would be expected in the event that the levels of

change that have been experienced in the past were to continue in the future.

4.12 The 2012-based SNHP draw upon on longer term trends since 1971 but the

methodology applied by CLG means that they have a greater reliance upon

trends experienced over the last 10 years than to those experienced over the

longer term. The implication of this “recency bias” is that the latest household

projections continue to be affected by the recently observed trends during the

period of suppressed household formation which are associated with the

impacts of the economic downturn, constrained mortgage finance and past

housing under-supply, as well as the preceding time of increasing

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unaffordability which also served to suppress household formation1. They do

not take any account of the impact of future government or local policies,

changing economic conditions or other factors that might have an impact upon

demographic behaviour or household consumption.

4.13 The 2012-based SNHP anticipates an additional 40,912 households in

Cornwall between 2012 and 2030. This represents a 17.6% increase,

equivalent to 2,273 households per annum.

4.14 The 2012-based SNHP anticipates a level of population growth that is 3.8%

below the 2011-based interim SNPP over the period from 2012 to 2021:

1 2011-based interim SNHP: 21,719 additional households between 2012

and 2021 (2,413 p.a.);

2 2012-based SNHP: 20,892 additional households between 2012 and

2021 (2,321 p.a.).

4.15 The relative scale of the difference between the 2011 and 2012-based

population and household projections highlights that the household headship

rates associated with the 2012-based projections are higher than those

associated with the 2011-based projections. This is further demonstrated by

Sensitivity Test 1 that was undertaken by DCLG and which sets out the

household projections using 2011-based population and 2012-based

household formation between 2012 and 2021. This therefore provides a direct

comparison with the 2011-based interim SNHP. It shows that the latest

headship rates would result in a level of household growth that is 12.6% higher

than that associated with the 2011-based interim rates when tested against the

same population projections in Cornwall:

Table 4.1 Comparison of 2011-based interim SNHP and 2012 SNHP Sensitivity Test 1 between 2012 and

2021 – Cornwall

2012 Households

2021 Households

Change % Change

2011-based interim

SNHP 233,521 255,240

21,719

(2,413 p.a.) 9.3%

Sensitivity Test 1

(2012 SNHP) 233,463 257,919

24,456

(2,717 p.a.) 10.5%

Difference -58 +2,679 +2,737

(+304 p.a.) 12.6%

Source: CLG Live Table 429a / 2011-based interim SNHP

1 This is explained on Page 19 of the Household Projections 2012-based: Methodological Report.


10737655v5 P13

4.16 The implication of this is to highlight the extent to which the 2012-based SNHP,

which consider a longer time period and are regarded as being more robust,

draw upon higher household formation rates. However, the 2012-based

projections do continue to draw upon trends that were experienced during both

the recession and the immediately preceding period of increasing housing

market pressures. The implication of this is that they project forwards

constrained levels of household formation and in order to assess how many

new houses will actually be required in Cornwall over the Local Plan period, it

is appropriate to consider the extent to which household formation rates might

be expected to increase in the future as they move towards the levels identified

in the 2008-based projections.

Mid Year Estimates

4.17 ONS’s most recent estimates of population change are contained within the

Mid-Year Estimates (MYE) Series 2001-2011 (revised following the 2011

Census) and the subsequent 2012, 2013 and 2014 releases.

Natural Change

4.18 Over the past ten years, there has been a negative natural change in Cornwall

with the number of deaths exceeding the number of births by an average of

460 p.a. Between 2004/5-2008/9 and 2008/9-2012/13, the number of births in

Cornwall increased by 10% whilst the number of deaths decreased by 1.4%,

such that natural change increased from -759 p.a. to -163 p.a.

Migration

4.19 Over the last ten years, net internal migration in Cornwall has averaged 4,268

p.a. and net international migration has averaged 272 p.a., meaning total net

migration of 4,540 per annum. The averages for the past 5 years show a lower

level of overall migration (4,352 p.a.) but almost double the level of

international migration (508 p.a.) and a correspondingly lower level of internal

migration (3,844 p.a.). This difference reflects the fact that average

international migration fell by 93% between 2004/5-2008/9 and 2008/9-

2012/13.

4.20 The identified migration trends over the last ten years are shown in Table 4.2

and Figure 4.2.


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Table 4.2 Net Internal, Internal and Total Migration in Cornwall, 2004/5-2013/14

2004/5 – 2008/9 200910 – 2013/14 2004/5 – 2013/14

Net internal 4,692 3,844 4,268

Net international 36 508 272

Net migration 4,728 4,352 4,540

Source: ONS Mid Year Estimates

Figure 4.2 Net Internal, Internal and Total Migration in Cornwall, 2004/5-2013/14

Source: ONS Mid Year Estimates

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5.0 Objective Assessment of Housing Need

5.1 A number of scenarios have been tested, using the HEaDROOM framework, to

establish the need for housing in Cornwall. This is based on different

demographic, economic and housing related factors, as detailed below:

Demographic Scenarios

a Scenario A: 2012-based Sub National Population Projections – based on

the 2012-based SNPP, which takes account of the results of the 2011

Census, but updated to reflect the latest mid year population estimates;

and,

b Scenario B: Long Term Migration Trends – based on past migration

trends as observed over the last 10 years in Cornwall.

A sensitivity has been applied to each of these scenarios to test the

implications of a “partial catch up” in household formation rates (see

Paragraph 6.22). A further sensitivity to Scenario B considers the

implications of applying 50% of the unattributable population change

component.

Economic Scenarios

c Scenario C: Experian Forecast – based on forecasts of annual job growth

(between 2014 and 2030) prepared by Experian Business Strategies in

September 2015; and,

d Scenario D: LEP Objectives – based on the annual growth objectives set

out in the LEP economic strategy (3,052 jobs between 2014 and 2020),

followed by forecasts of annual job growth prepared by Experian

Business Strategies for 2020 to 2030.

A sensitivity has been applied to each of these scenarios to test the

implications of a “partial catch up” in household formation rates (see

Paragraph 6.22). A further sensitivity to Scenario D considers the

implications of the continuation of the annual growth objectives set out in

the LEP economic strategy throughout the Local Plan period to 2030.


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Housing Scenario

e Scenario E: Affordable Housing – considers the housing delivery that

would be required to achieve the level of affordable housing need in

Cornwall, as considered by the Local Plan Inspector.

Summary of Assumptions

5.2 The following key assumptions have informed the assessment of all the

scenarios contained within this report.

Base Year

5.3 A base year of 2010 has been adopted to reflect the start of the Cornwall

Central Local Plan period. The population figures for this year have been taken

from the 2010-based Mid-Year Estimates, which were revised in light of the

2011 Census.

5.4 The latest (2012-based) population and household projections cover the period

from 2012 to 2037 and can be used to inform the housing requirement for that

period. However, Mid Year Population Estimates have been published for 2013

and 2014 and the PPG states that consideration should be given to the latest

demographic data. Given that the Cornwall Local Plan will cover the period

from 2010 to 2030, it is necessary to adjust the SNPP/SNHP-based figures to

achieve a robust indication of housing need over the full 20-year period. This

requires a back-dating exercise to be undertaken.

5.5 The back-dating has been considered through an analysis of the change

between 2010 and 2014, based upon a demographic approach taking account

of the results of the 2012-based SNPP and the 2010 to 2014 Mid Year

Estimates.

5.6 This approach assumes the following changes between 2010 and 2014:

Table 5.1 Population, Housing and Employment Change, Cornwall: 2010-14

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Change

Population 529,794 533,760 537,914 541,319 545,335 15,541

Dwellings 252,134 253,682 255,904 257,958 260,157 8,023

Employment 205,500 206,000 204,600 206,300 208,253 2,753

Source: NLP Analysis of PopGroup Outputs


10737655v5 P17

5.7 This approach to back-dating is considered to be appropriate and robust but it

does underestimate the housing need associated with employment-led

scenarios.

Fertility and Mortality Rates

5.8 NLP has applied the Total Fertility Rates (TFR) and Standard Mortality Rates

(SMR) taken from the 2012-based SNPP for the period from 2012.

Unemployment

5.9 The unemployment rate uses an International Labour Organisation (ILO) base

definition using data from the ONS Annual Population Survey estimate of

economically active people aged over 16 that are not in employment. The

unemployment rates between 2004 and 2014 are set out below:

Table 5.2 Unemployment rate in Cornwall, 2004-2014

Unemployment Rate

2004 4.6%

2005 4.0%

2006 3.4%

2007 5.1%

2008 5.6%

2009 5.5%

2010 9.0%

2011 4.9%

2012 5.5%

2013 5.4%

2014 4.9%

Average 2004-8 4.5%

Average 2004-14 5.3%

Source: ONS Annual Population Survey

5.10 A gradual reduction in unemployment to the past (2004-2008) rate is assumed

on the basis that as the economy grows out of recession unemployment will fall

back to a similar rate as seen during this period. This is projected to happen

over the period to 2030, by which time it is assumed the unemployment rate

will return to 4.5%.

Commuting Patterns

5.11 A standard net commuting rate is inferred through the modelling using a

Labour Force ratio which is worked out using the formula:


10737655v5 P18

(A) Number of employed workers living in area ÷ (B) Number of workers who

work in the area (number of jobs).

5.12 NLP has calculated this figure for 2010, 2011, 2012 and 2013 using APS and

BRES data, reflecting the known labour force and number of jobs in those

years, as summarised below:

Table 5.3 Commuting Ratios for Cornwall

Year No. Employed

Residents

No. Workers in area

Commuting Ratio

2010 237,055 208,200 1.14

2011 244,692 206,000 1.19

2012 236,723 204,600 1.16

2013 245,865 206,200 1.19

Source: APS / Experian Business Strategies Ltd

5.13 Because the APS/BRES data for the number of workers in Cornwall in 2014 is

only currently available as provisional data and is therefore subject to change,

NLP has not applied this information. Instead, we have tested on the basis of a

continuation of the 2013 commuting rate over the modelling period.

Economic Activity

5.14 NLP has applied age and gender specific economic activity rates. The basis for

these rates is the 2011 Census, but they have been adjusted to take account

of the 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013 and 2014 Annual Population Survey and

thereby reflect the known number of economically active people in Cornwall in

those years.

5.15 NLP has then applied the following rates of change to these base rates:

a For age groups 16-24, rates are projected to reach the ONS Labour

Force Projections (LFP) by 2020, and then held constant.

b For ages 25-69, the ONS LFP growth rates are applied, and held

constant post 2020.

c In older age groups, an adjustment has been made to take account of

higher economic activity than projected in the LFP. Rates for 70-74 year

olds are projected to reach a mid-point between the ONS LFP and a

linear trend based on 2001-2011 growth, then held constant. For those

aged 75 and older, the 70-74 growth rate is applied.


10737655v5 P19

d Further adjustments have been made for males and females age 65-69

to take into account of changes in Statutory Pension Age in 2018-2020

and 2026-2028.

Second Homes / Vacancy Rates

5.16 In line with accepted practice, NLP has applied an allowance for vacant and

second homes to the number of households in order to identify the future level

of housing that will be required.

5.17 NLP has applied a total rate of 8.91% to account for second homes and

vacancies. This is based upon an assessment of Council Tax Base (CTB) Data

over the previous 4 years (2011-14), as set out below.

Table 5.4 Second homes and vacant dwellings in Cornwall, 2011-2014

Second Homes

Vacant Dwelling

Second / Vacant

Total Dwellings

Rate

2011 14078 9326 23404 253817 9.2%

2012 14457 8924 23381 256368 9.1%

2013 14318 8327 22645 258422 8.8%

2014 14253 8094 22347 261092 8.6%

Average 14277 8668 22944 257425 8.91%

Source: DCLG Council Tax Base (CTB) Data

5.18 NLP has kept these rates constant over the projection period. It is recognised

that the figure that has been applied in this analysis is lower than that endorsed

by the Local Plan Inspector but it is considered that the figure set out above

nevertheless represents a reliable indication of the level of vacant and second

homes in Cornwall, based upon a robust data source.

Population not in Households

5.19 The population not in households (i.e. in institutional accommodation) is taken

from the CLG 2012-based household projections. These are used as absolute

numbers up to age 74, and above this age the numbers are converted into a

percentage which is applied to the population. This allows for changes in the

elderly population in institutional care where there is a change in the population

over age 75. NLP has not assumed any change from the levels identified by

CLG.


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Headship Rates

5.20 The core scenarios that NLP has modelled apply the household headship rates

derived from the 2012-based SNHP.

5.21 However, the 2012-based SNHP are based upon past trends and, although

they consider trends from the early 1970s, the projections suffer from a

recency bias. The figures have therefore been affected by the conditions that

were experienced during the recession, as well as the effects of rapid house

price increase in the early 2000s. It is reasonable to assume that rates of

household formation and average household size will reflect a change in line

with long term trends as the economy strengthens and peoples’ circumstances

improve, resulting in improved confidence and a greater propensity to form

new households.

5.22 NLP has tested this change through a sensitivity to the various scenarios. This

applies the 2012 SNHP household formation rates for a period of 5 years (until

2017 to allow for the full return to pre-recession trends) and then assumes that

headship rates in the 15-34 age cohorts will return to a level in line with longer

term trends, such that by 2033, half of the difference between the 2008-based

and 2012-based projections is made up. This test results in the average

household size declining at a slightly faster rate than the baseline 2012

projection, as a higher proportion of younger people form households.

Research by NHPAU2 found that cohorts who are less able to access home

ownership earlier in their housing career due to ‘boom’ or ‘recession’ factors

impacting on affordability are nevertheless able to ‘catch-up’ – 80% of the gap

at the age of 30 is ‘caught-up’ by the age of 40. This finding supports the

resumption towards long term household formation trends.

2 NHPAU (2010) How do Housing Price Booms and Busts Affect Home Ownership for Different Birth Cohorts?


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6.0 Demographic Scenarios

6.1 NLP has tested two scenarios to consider the number of houses that would be

required in Cornwall if past levels of demographic change were repeated in the

future.

Scenario A: 2012-based Sub-National Population and Household Projections

6.2 This baseline scenario mirrors the demographic change for Cornwall projected

by the 2012-based SNPP, albeit that NLP has taken account of the Mid Year

Estimate population figures for 2013 and 2014. The assessment of the

household and dwelling implications of the projections apply headship and

household composition trends contained within the 2012-based SNHP.

6.3 The headline changes are shown below:

Table 6.1 Summary of 2012-based SNPP/SNHP Scenario

Category 2010 2030 Change (2010-2030)

Annual

Population 529,794 616,796 87,002 4,350

Households 229,669 274,017 44,348 2,217

Dwellings 252,134 300,820 48,686 2,434

Indigenous Labour Force 268,242 276,365 8,123 406

Jobs supported at existing

jobs density ratio 205,500 221,364 15,864 793


6.4 Under this scenario, the total population of Cornwall is projected to rise by

87,002 people between 2010 and 2030. This would result in an additional

44,348 households and taking account of housing vacancy rates, an

additional 48,686 dwellings would be required to accommodate these

additional households (2,434 dpa).

6.5 Applying age specific economic activity rates to the projected population shows

that this scenario would result in an additional 8,123 people in the indigenous

labour force over the Plan period. By applying the ratio of workers to jobs, this

result would support 15,864 jobs between 2010 and 2030.


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Scenario Ai: Partial Catch-up Sensitivity Test

6.6 A sensitivity test has been applied whereby the 2012-based headship rates are

adjusted so that, after 2017, the headship rates of males and females in the

15-34 age group will increase in line with longer term trends such that by 2033,

50% of the difference between the 2008-based rates and the 2012-based rates

will have been made up. Other age groups are projected to remain the same

as in the 2012-based headship rates.

6.7 The results for the Partial Catch-up sensitivity scenario are as follows:

Table 6.2 Headship Sensitivity Test for 2012-based SNPP/SNHP Scenario

Overall level of

change (2010-2030)

Annual change

Population 87,002 4,350

Dwellings 50,903 2,545

Jobs supported at

existing jobs density

ratio

15,864 793


Scenario B: Long Term Migration Trends

6.8 This scenario represents the housing and economic implications of the

projected demographic shift based on the average migration trends in Cornwall

over the last 10 years (2005-2014).


Table 6.3 Summary of Long Term Migration Trend Scenario

Category 2010 2030 Change (2010-2030)

Annual

Population 529,794 630,160 100,366 5,018

Households 229,669 274,538 44,869 2,243

Dwellings 252,134 301,392 49,258 2,463

Indigenous Labour Force 268,242 289,355 21,113 1,056


jobs density ratio 205,500 231,768 26,268 1,313


6.10 This scenario indicates that Cornwall would experience an increase a

population increase of 100,366 between 2010 and 2030. This would result in

an additional 44,869 and an additional 49,258 dwellings would be required

to accommodate these additional households (2,463 dpa).


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6.11 Applying age specific economic activity rates to the projected population shows

that this scenario would result in an additional 21,113 people in the indigenous

labour force over the Plan period. By applying the ratio of workers to jobs, this

result would support 26,268 additional jobs between 2010 and 2030.

Scenario Bi: Partial Catch-up Sensitivity Test

6.12 This sensitivity replicates Ai for the long term migration trend scenario. The

results are as follows:

Table 6.4 Headship Sensitivity Test for 10 year Migration Trend Scenario

Overall level of

change (2010-2030)

Annual change



Jobs supported at


ratio

26,268 1,313


Scenario Bii(a): Unattributable Population Growth Sensitivity Test

6.13 The updated MYE data for the period up to 2011 includes an additional ‘other

unattributable’ component. This represents an unexplained adjustment to

population each year within the series. At the national level ONS attributes

approximately half of the errors in the MYE series to inaccuracies in the 2001

Census and the other half to inaccuracies in the methodology for estimating

migration used by ONS3.

6.14 The ONS report ‘2012- based Subnational Population Projections for England -

Report on Unattributable Population Change’ (January 2014)4 identifies that no

adjustment has been made for unattributable population change within the

2012-based SNPP. This is because the unattributable population change for

England is within the confidence interval for international migration estimates.

3 http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/guide-method/method-quality/specific/population-and- migration/population-statistics-research-unit--

psru-/examining-the-difference-between-the-rolled- forward-mid-2011-population-estimates-and-2011-census-based-myes.pdf -

Page 3.

4 http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/about-ons/get-involved/consultations/consultations/consultation-on-the- 2012-based-subnational-

population-projections-for-england/snpp-consult-upc.pdf.


10737655v5 P24

6.15 However, following the approach taken by the Cornwall Local Plan Inspector,

NLP has tested the implications of applying 50% of the ‘other unattributable’

component to the assessment of population change. In accordance with the

Inspector’s conclusion, this adjustment has been applied to international

migration.

6.16 The average figure for UPC between 2005 and 2014 was -787 and so 50% of

this figure has been applied5. The results for the UPC sensitivity scenario are

as follows:

Table 6.5 UPC Sensitivity Test for 10 year Migration Trend Scenario

Overall level of

change (2010-2030)

Annual change



Jobs supported at


ratio

22,693 1,135


Scenario Bii(b): Partial Catch-up and Unattributable Population Growth Sensitivity Test

6.17 The implications of applying the partial catch-up headship rates to the 50%

UPC sensitivity for Cornwall are set out below:

Table 6.6 UPC and Headship Sensitivity Test for 10 year Migration Trend Scenario

Overall level of

change (2010-2030)

Annual change



Jobs supported at


ratio

22,693 1,135


Summary

6.18 The demographic scenarios that are set out above give rise to a need for

between 2,303 and 2,589 dwellings per annum. These figures represent a

range of -3% to +9% around the housing requirement figure that was identified

within the emerging Cornwall Local Plan (2,375 dpa) and found to be

inadequate by the Local Plan Inspector. In considering the relationship

5 This assessment is based on the assumption that UPC is zero for the years 2012, 2013 and 2014.


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between these figures and the Local Plan housing requirement figure, it is

important to recognise that these demographic scenarios have not taken any

account of the economic growth aspirations for Cornwall – a reality that is

evident from the fact that the maximum level of employment growth supported

by the demographic scenarios is 26,300 jobs between 2010 and 2030. This is

very substantially below the level of growth that has been forecast by Experian

Business Strategies and sought by the Cornwall Local Enterprise Partnership.


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7.0 Economic Scenarios

7.1 Ensuring a sufficient number of homes within easy access of employment

opportunities represents a central facet of an efficiently functioning economy. It

can help to minimise housing market pressures and unsustainable levels of

commuting (and therefore congestion and carbon emissions). If the objective of

employment growth is to be realised, then it will generally need to be supported

by an adequate supply of suitable housing. The NPPF highlights this by stating

that planning should "do everything it can" to support economic growth and

requires local planning authorities to ensure alignment between their

employment and housing (and other) policies and proposals.

7.2 This approach is consistent with the PPG which states that demographic

trends should be applied just as a starting point when assessing the FOAN. It

goes on to state that consideration should be given to the likely change in job

numbers when determining future housing need.

7.3 Given the importance of taking account of economic considerations in order to

ensure consistency with the NPPF and the PPG, NLP has tested the level of

housing that would be needed to support the levels of employment growth

anticipated by Experian Business Strategies over the period to 2030 and set

out in Cornwall LEP’s Strategic Economic Plan in relation to the period

between 2014 and 2020. The LEP strategy was specifically endorsed by the

Local Plan Inspector, although it is not known what level of employment growth

the LEP anticipate after 2020.

Scenario C: Experian

7.4 A set of economic forecasts was obtained from Experian Business Strategies.

These were compiled in September 2015 using Experian UK’s Regional

Planning Service (RPS) and provide forecasts to 20316. As set out in

paragraphs 5.3 to 5.7, the demographic-led approach to backdating that NLP

has applied indicates a very low level of employment growth between 2010

and 2014 (2,753 jobs, equivalent to 688 jobs p.a.). This serves to constrain the

level of population and housing change associated with this scenario.

6 Appendix 4


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7.5 The modelling applies the past jobs growth figures from Experian to cover the

year from 2014 to 2015 (1,850 jobs) and then the average level of employment

growth between 2015 and 2030 (1,908 jobs p.a.).

7.6 These figures do not make any allowance for policy objectives or local

aspirations (i.e. each represents a policy-off forecast). This scenario simply

considers the implications of delivering this level of employment growth in

Cornwall.


Table 7.1 Summary of Experian-based Jobs Scenario

Category 2010 2030 Change (2010-2030)

Annual

Population 529,794 646,046 116,270 5,814

Households 229,669 280,553 50,885 2,544

Dwellings 252,134 307,996 55,862 2,793






116,270 people between 2010 and 2030. This equates to an additional 50,885

households over the same period and an additional 55,862 dwellings would

be required to accommodate these additional households (2,793 dpa).

Scenario Ci: Partial Catch-up Sensitivity Test

7.9 This sensitivity replicates Ai in terms of the headship rates that have been

applied. The results are as follows:

Table 7.2 Headship Sensitivity Test for Experian Scenario

Overall level of

change (2010-2030)

Annual change



Jobs supported at


ratio

33,223 1,661



10737655v5 P28

Scenario D: LEP Employment Growth

7.10 The Cornwall LEP’s Strategic Economic Plan (SEP) sets out the objectives for

future growth across Cornwall between 2014 and 2020. It comprises three

strategic priorities relating to the future economy, business growth and

ensuring that the conditions are in place to deliver future growth. This includes

the provision of adequate infrastructure and sufficient new homes to

accommodate those working within the local economy.

7.11 The SEP identifies a number of headline results which it seeks to achieve by

2020. This includes investment in 18,313 new additional jobs. Again, NLP has

applied a demographic led approach to change between 2010 and 2014 and

then modelled the LEP figure for the period between 2014 and 2020 (3,052

jobs p.a.). NLP has then applied the average level of employment growth

between 2020 and 2030 identified by Experian Business Strategies (1,943 jobs

p.a.). In this respect, this scenario may be viewed as less ambitious than might

otherwise have been the case, as it assumes a 36% reduction in employment

growth after the end of the SEP period.


Table 7.3 Summary of LEP-based Jobs Scenario

Category 2010 2030 Change (2010-2030)

Annual

Population 529,794 664,177 134,383 6,719

Households 229,669 287,486 57,817 2,891

Dwellings 252,134 315,606 63,472 3,174






134,383 people between 2010 and 2030. This equates to an additional 57,817

households over the same period and an additional 63,472 dwellings would

be required to accommodate these additional households (3,174 dpa).

Scenario Di: Partial Catch-up Sensitivity Test

7.14 This sensitivity again replicates Ai in terms of the headship rates that have

been applied. The results are as follows:


10737655v5 P29

Table 7.4 Headship Sensitivity Test for LEP Scenario

Overall level of

change (2010-2030)

Annual change



Jobs supported at


ratio

40,495 2,025


Scenario Dii(a): Continuation of LEP Strategy Sensitivity Test

7.15 As set out in Section 3, the Local Plan Examination Inspector specifically

endorsed the LEP strategy and stated that a reliance on past trends or

economic projections would not represent an appropriate basis for assessing

the housing requirement going forwards. He has asked the Council to provide

an “explicit explanation of the Council’s/plan’s economic strategy beyond 2020

(which is the period covered by the current LEP strategy)” (paragraph 4.13).

Although the economic strategy after 2020 is unknown, for the purposes of this

sensitivity test, NLP has considered the implications of a continuation of the

level of growth anticipated by the SEP (3,052 jobs p.a.) over the period to

2030. The results for this sensitivity scenario are as follows:

Table 7.5 Continuation of LEP Strategy Scenario

Overall level of

change (2010-2030)

Annual change



Jobs supported at


ratio

51,585 2,579


Scenario Dii(a): Partial Catch-up and Continuation of LEP Strategy Sensitivity Test

7.16 The implications of applying the partial catch-up headship rates to this

sensitivity are set out below:

Table 7.6 Headship Sensitivity / Continuation of LEP Strategy Scenario

Overall level of

change (2010-2030)

Annual change



Jobs supported at 51,585 2,579


10737655v5 P30

Overall level of

change (2010-2030)

Annual change


ratio


Summary

7.17 This analysis has shown that between 2,793 and 3,828 dwellings would be

needed in Cornwall each year in order to align with the level of employment

growth planned for by the LEP and forecast by Experian Business Strategies.


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8.0 Affordable Housing Scenario

8.1 In paragraph 3.16 of his preliminary findings, the Local Plan Examination

Inspector accepted that the affordable housing requirement for Cornwall is

30,912 dwellings over the Plan period. Taking account of backlog (926 dpa),

he identified an annual requirement of 2,240 dpa for first 5 years and 1,314

dpa thereafter.

8.2 Policy 8 of the emerging Local Plan requires 50% of all new homes in zones 1

and 2 to be provided as affordable housing and 40% in zones 3, 4 and 5.

However, save for zone 1, the Housing Strategic Viability Appraisal Final

Report (September 2012) and Viability Study Refresh (March 2015) found that

these figures were unviable. Paragraph 5.6 of the Inspector’s report noted that:

“The detailed assumptions in the Viability Study Refresh were not seriously

challenged. Most parties at the hearing seeking a change to the proportions in

policy 8 advocated, or would accept, changes to reflect the findings of the

study as summarised on p5 of the Study and set out more fully in Table 7.1.

These are Zone 1, 50%; zone 2, 40%; zones 3, 35%; and zone 4, 30%. Zone 5

has very weak values and Table 7.1 indicates that no affordable housing can

be provided, but 20% is suggested in the Study to try and capture those sites

with some viability to deliver affordable housing”.

8.3 In paragraph 5.10, the Inspector concludes that the Viability Study Refresh

contains the “only comprehensive and up to date evidence on which to

recommend alternative targets to make the plan sound” although for zone 5 he

suggests that “an appropriate balance between aspiration and realism is in the

order of 25%, provided that for all other zones the percentages are as

recommended in the Study”.

8.4 Table 3.3 of the Viability Study Refresh sets out the main settlements by price

zone as follows:

Table 8.1 Main settlements by price zone

Zone Category A settlements Category B settlements Category C settlements

1 Rock with Tredrizzick

Gerrans/ Portscatho

Fowey

2 St Ives Padstow

St Merryn/ Shop


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Zone Category A settlements Category B settlements Category C settlements

Constantine

3 Falmouth and Penryn

Truro with Threemilestone

Newquay

Mevagissey

Lostwithiel

Marazion

4 Bodmin

Penzance

Launceston,

Bude with Stratton and Poughill

Saltash

Hayle

Wadebridge

Callington, Camelford,

Newlyn, Perranporth,

St. Columb Major,

Boscastle, Porthleven,

Heamoor, St Blazey/Par

St Just, Mullion,

St Agnes, Tintagel,

Gunnislake,

Kilkhampton, Looe,

Torpoint

5 Camborne with Pool

Illogan and Redruth

St Austell

Helston

Liskeard

Indian Queens with St Columb Rd

& Fraddon

Delabole

Source: Viability Study Refresh (March 2015) (ID.01.CC.3.2). Table 3.3

8.5 It is not possible to achieve a direct correlation between the price zones that

have been identified for the purposes of the viability analysis and the

Community Network Areas (CNA) because some of the CNAs include

settlements within more than one price zones. However, it is noted that zones

4 and 5 include many of the larger settlements and areas within which the

Local Plan sought to focus a large proportion of Cornwall’s future housing

growth.

8.6 Applying a simple average of the five different affordable housing requirements

gives a figure of 36%. Assuming that this was the average level of affordable

housing delivery achieved across Cornwall, then the total housing requirement

would need to be 85,867 to ensure that 30,912 affordable homes could be

provided. It is likely that this underestimates the true level of housing delivery

that would be required to meet the affordable housing need because there will

not be an equal number of new houses delivered in each of the five price

zones; instead a disproportionately high number of houses will be provided in

zones 3, 4 and 5.

8.7 For the purposes of comparison, were an overall average of 30% affordable

housing to be achieved in Cornwall (the average of the requirements for zones

3, 4 and 5), a total of 103,040 new homes would be required to meet the

identified level of affordable housing need.


10737655v5 P33

9.0 Summary of Scenarios

9.1 The scenarios outlined above present a range of different housing outcomes

based on their principal drivers. The outputs are summarised in Tables 9.1 and

9.2.

Table 9.1 Summary of Demographic Scenarios

A: 2012 SNPP / SNHP

Ai: SNPP / SNHP PRR

B: Long Term Migration

Bi: LT Migration PRR

Bii(a): LT Migration 50% UPC

Bii(b): LT Migration 50% UPC PRR

Population change 87,002 100,366 92,758

Household change 44,348 46,368 44,869 47,165 41,951 44,188

Dwellings change 48,686 50,903 49,258 51,779 46,055 48,510

Dwellings p.a. 2,434 2,545 2,463 2,589 2,303 2,426

Labour Force 8,123 21,113 16,649

Jobs 15,864 26,268 22,693

Jobs p.a. 793 1,313 1,135

Source: NLP Analysis using PopGroup demographic model

Table 9.2 Summary of Economic Scenarios

C: Experian Forecast

Ci: Experian PRR

D: SEP Strategy

Di:SEP PRR

Dii (a): Continuation of SEP

Dii (b): Continuation of SEP PRR




Dwellings p.a. 2,793 2,925 3,174 3,311 3,681 3,829

Labour Force 29,796 38,874 52,720

Jobs 33,223 40,495 51,585

Jobs p.a. 1,661 2,025 2,579


Scenario Analysis

9.2 Other than Bii(a), all of the scenarios that have been tested result in a level of

housing need that is greater than that proposed by the draft Cornwall Local

Plan. Scenario Bii(a) is based on the application of 50% of UPC and, because

of the uncertainties associated with this, cannot be viewed as a reasonable

basis for the determination of future housing need.

9.3 Significantly, the fact that the SNPP/SNHP Baseline Scenario (A) generates a

housing need that is above that set out in the draft Local Plan demonstrates


10737655v5 P34

that the Council’s strategy failed to take account of the latest official projections

and therefore failed to comply with the requirements of the PPG.

9.4 It is noted that Cornwall Council did appoint Edge Analytics to undertake an

assessment of the latest projections but NLP would question to value of this

exercise given that it:

a Did not consider the Plan period;

b Did not pay any regard to potential levels of economic growth or market

signals;

c Did not provide an indication of the FOAN for housing; and,

d Did not result in any change to the housing requirement contained within

the draft Local Plan or the proposed strategy for Cornwall.

Alignment with employment growth

9.5 Paragraph 2.5 of the Cornwall LP Strategic Policies (proposed submission

version, March 2014) includes the marked deletion of a target of “over 50,000

jobs” such that the plan now simply reads “to support the delivery of jobs”. The

previous target of 50,000 jobs over the Plan period equates to 2,500 jobs each

year. This is above the level of employment change associated with Scenarios

C and D, but below the level assumed by Sensitivity Dii (continuation of LEP

strategy). It should be noted that the annual target of 2,500 jobs p.a. is also

below the target contained within the SEP.

9.6 At the Local Plan examination, the Inspector posed a question in relation to the

lack of a jobs target within the Plan. In its Matter Statement7 the Council stated

that:

7 Cornwall Local Plan EiP May 2015, HS2.CC. Issue 2.


10737655v5 P35

“A jobs target, based on simplistic projections, would not reflect the

approach of Cornwall’s economic strategy or investment programs that

seek improved productivity as a major component of the economic

growth. The synergy of the Local Plan and the SEP is predicated on an

infrastructure, including labour market, and growth strategy focused on

economic opportunity rather than a formulaic approach to the numbers of

jobs to be delivered. … a Local Plan ‘target’ would not add to the

decision making process. The Plan’s role is to enable the conditions for

development including the provision of a clear intention to increase GDP.

A more connected and productive economy will generate economic

growth, as will an increasing number of jobs. It is the value per job and

added value through supply and expenditure that grows the economy.”

9.7 It is difficult to align this position against the requirements of paragraph 158 of

the NPPF which states that strategies for housing and employment should be

integrated. The Inspector clearly did not accept the Council’s justification of its

approach and indicated that the fact that the plan is not jobs-led “has resulted

in a lack of clarity”. As a result, he has required the preparation of a “clear

explanation of the Council’s expectations for job change/growth over the plan

period” (paragraph 4.13).

9.8 Although the Local Plan does not contain any employment target, paragraph

4.13 of the Inspector’s preliminary findings goes on to state:

“As explained orally at the hearing by the Council, fulfilment of some of the

aims of the economic strategy (eg lowering the rate of unemployment,

increasing the economic activity rate; a proportion of part-time workers moving

to full time jobs etc) and age-related changes to employment could collectively

require an additional 30-50,000 jobs. In as much as these are expectations, or

the positive consequences of achieving the strategy, the Council needs to

demonstrate that the plan enables the necessary scale of employment

/economic development to occur. This assessment will need to take into

account the workforce arising from the reassessment of the housing

requirement”.

9.9 It is not clear what evidence underpins this level of employment growth, but

NLP would make the following points:


10737655v5 P36

a The lower end of that range (30,000 jobs) represents a substantial

deviation from the target that was contained within an early draft of the

Local Plan; the upper end of that range (50,000 jobs) reflects the

previous target.

b The figure of 30,000 jobs over 20 years (1,500 p.a.) would appear to

conflict with the figure of 18,313 jobs for the 6 year period between 2014

and 2020, as contained within the SEP (3,052 jobs p.a.) which the Local

Plan Inspector specifically endorsed.

c This range aligns with the employment figures contained within NLP’s

scenarios C and D, even though these might be viewed as conservative

on the grounds that:

i Experian Business Strategies record an average growth of 4,291

jobs p.a. between 2000 and 2010;

ii Both the Experian forecast and the SEP strategy anticipate a lower

level of annual employment growth than has been seen in the past;

and,

iii In the absence of any clarity regarding the economic strategy after

2020, the approach that has been applied (a reversion to Experian

forecasts) would anticipate a significant reduction in employment

growth after the end of the SEP period, which would not reflect the

aspirations for the area.

d NLP’s final sensitivity (continuation of LEP targets) is broadly aligned with

the upper end of the range identified by the Council at the examination

and previously contained within the draft Local Plan. However, given that

there is no certainty about the LEP’s aspirations after 2020, it is not

proposed to apply this figure as a basis for the FOAN.

e All of demographic scenarios would result in a level of employment

growth that is below the range presented to the examination.

9.10 In a number of locations, notably South Worcestershire and Aylesbury Vale,

Inspectors have concluded that local plans should increase their housing

targets above demographic trend-based approaches in order to better align

with economic growth potential. The same approach should similarly be

applied in this case, meaning that the economic-led scenarios should be


10737655v5 P37

applied on the basis that there is considerable justification for a FOAN figure

which is greater than the starting point demographic-led needs.

Demographic structure

9.11 The relationship between the population growth, level of employment that

would be supported and, because of difference in household formation rates

between different age cohorts, the associated level of housing need depends

upon the age profile of the population, as well as the total population change.

9.12 Reflecting recent trends in terms of a reduced level of inward migration of

working age persons due to factors such as the availability of jobs and

affordability of housing, the baseline scenario anticipates a limited increase in

the number of persons of working age. This also has an effect in terms of a

limited increase in the number of children. As set out in Table 9.3, the baseline

scenario assumes that the recent trend of an ageing population will continue

over the Local Plan period.

9.13 The other demographic scenarios also only anticipate a small increase in the

number of persons of working age people which again has an impact upon the

change in the number of people under the age of 18. As shown in Table 9.4,

these trends are reflected in the levels of natural change associated with each

scenario. The economic scenarios anticipate larger increase in working

population which also translates to higher number of births and greater level of

natural change.

9.14 The ageing population within Cornwall has an important impact upon the

population and housing growth required to reflect future employment creation.

This is because even though economic activity rates are increasing amongst

older persons, an ageing population will contain fewer workers (because

activity rates are lower amongst older persons than younger age cohorts). The

implication of this is that job vacancies will emerge as people retire and as new

positions are created. This results in a need for more workers to move into the

area and for more homes to accommodate them when compared to past

trends.


10737655v5 P38

Table 9.3 Demographic profile of population change

SNPP / SHNP

Long Term

Migration

LT Migration

50% UPC

Experian LEP SEP Continuation of LEP

0-17 16,584

(16.2%)

24,913

(24.3%)

23,100

(22.5%)

28,661

(27.9%)

33,702

(32.8%)

39,269

(38.2%)

18-59/64 6,441

(2.2%)

24,361

(8.3%)

19,108

(6.5%)

34,456

(11.8%)

44,791

(15.4%)

61,033

(20.9%)

60/65+ 63,977

(47.3%)

51,092

(37.8%)

50,549

(37.5%)

53,154

(39.3%)

55,889

(41.3%)

58,860

(43.5%)

Total 87,002

(16.4%)

100,366

(18.9%)

92,575

(17.5%)

116,271

(21.9%)

134,382

(23.4%)

159,162

(30.0%)


Table 9.4 Natural change associated with different scenarios

SNPP / SHNP

Long Term

Migration

LT Migration

50% UPC

Experian LEP SEP Continuation of LEP

Natural

Change

414 11,910 10,593 13,578 17,004 19,209


Partial catch-up scenarios

9.15 The results of the partial catch-up scenarios (Scenarios Ai, Bi, Bii(b), Ci, Di and

Dii(b)) indicate a higher level of housing need than those utilising the headship

rates included in the 2012-based SNHP. This reflects the reality that the

recession had a substantial impact on the ability of individuals to form

households.

9.16 It is important to recognise that the economy has improved substantially since

the end of the recession. As a result, household formation is increasing and the

property market is starting to move again. Therefore, NLP considers that the

assessment of housing need for Cornwall should include an appropriate

adjustment to the headship rates contained in the 2012-based SNHP, and the

“partial catch-up” approach fulfils this requirement. Therefore, in NLP’s view

the partial catch-up scenarios present a more robust set of results than the

initial scenarios.

Affordable housing

9.17 Paragraph 47 of the NPPF requires consideration to be given to the FOAN

needs for market and affordable housing and so it is appropriate to test the

overall level of housing provision that would be necessary to ensure delivery of


10737655v5 P39

the identified affordable housing need. Such a scenario would be based upon

the assumption that the level of affordable housing identified in the relevant

policy would be achieved.

9.18 The level of affordable housing need that was accepted by the Local Plan

Inspector creates potential further upward pressure on the FOAN. However, in

line with the judgment of Dove J in the King’s Lynn and West Norfolk HCJ, a

distinction should be drawn between giving consideration to making an upward

adjustment (which is required) and applying an automatic increase to the

FOAN (which is not appropriate). This distinction was recognised by the Local

Plan Inspector, and although NLP has considered the general level of housing

that would be needed to meet the identified need for affordable housing, it is

not suggested that the FOAN should be increased to meet that higher figure in

full.

Conclusion

9.19 By their nature, demographic scenarios are backwards looking: they reveal

what will happen if the conditions that were experienced in the past were to be

replicated. At a time following a deep recession, this raises fundamental

questions regarding their ability to accurately reflect future need. The same is

true with the 2012-based SNHP headship rates which draw upon past trends

which have been shaped by specific economic and housing market

circumstances.

9.20 By contrast, economic scenarios draw upon forward-looking projections and

provide a basis for ensuring policy alignment whereby sufficient housing is

provided to reflect the future needs of the economy. For this reason, they are

to be preferred. However, for the reasons set out above, it is not suggested

that a further uplift (above the economic-led scenarios) should be applied in

order to satisfy the identified affordable housing need.

9.21 It is therefore concluded that the OAN for Cornwall equates to between

58,508 and 66,214 dwellings between 2010 and 2030 (2,925 – 3,311 dpa).


10737655v5 P40

10.0 Taking Account of Market Signals

10.1 The NPPF sets out the central land-use planning principles that should

underpin both plan-making and decision-taking. It outlines twelve core

principles of planning that should be taken account of, including the role of

market signals in effectively informing planning decisions. Paragraph 17 states

that:

“Plans should take account of market signals, such as land prices and housing

affordability, and set out a clear strategy for allocating sufficient land which is

suitable for development in their area, taking account of the needs of the

residential and business communities”

10.2 The PPG indicates that once an assessment of need based upon household

projections is established, this should be adjusted to reflect appropriate market

signals and indicators of the balance between the demand for and supply of

housing. The guidance explicitly sets out six market signals:

a Land prices;

b House prices;

c Rental values;

d Affordability

e Rate of development; and,

f Overcrowding/Homelessness

10.3 It goes on to indicate that appropriate comparison of these should be made

with upward adjustment being made where such market signals indicate an

imbalance in supply and demand and a need to increase housing supply to

meet demand and tackle affordability issues:

“This includes comparison with longer term trends (both in absolute levels and

rates of change) in the housing market area; similar demographic and

economic areas; and nationally. Divergence under any of these circumstances

will require upwards adjustment to planned housing numbers compared to

ones based solely on household projections.


10737655v5 P41

“In areas where an upward adjustment is required, plan makers should set this

adjustment at a level that is reasonable. The more significant the affordability

constraints (as reflected in rising prices and rents, and worsening affordability

ratio) and the stronger other indicators of high demand (e.g. the differential

between land prices), the larger the improvement in affordability needed and,

therefore, the larger the additional supply response should be.” (ID 2a-020-

20140306: emphasis added)

10.4 The guidance sets out a clear and logical ‘test’ for the circumstances in which

FOAN will be increased above demographic-led projections.

10.5 In the context of the NPPF and the PPG, NLP has reviewed the housing

market signals in order to assess the extent to which they indicate an

imbalance between supply and demand in Cornwall and therefore indicate that

an upwards adjustment should be made over the demographic-led baseline

already identified.

10.6 The PPG requires market signals to be assessed against comparators and so

NLP has compared Cornwall against the national average levels. Due to the

formation of Cornwall as a unitary authority in 2008, some data is not readily

available over the longer term.

House Prices

10.7 The PPG identifies that longer term changes in house prices may indicate an

imbalance between the demand for and supply of housing. Although it

suggests using mix-adjusted prices, these are not available at a local authority

level on a consistent basis.

10.8 Figure 10.1 shows the house price indices for the housing market area and

England since 1995. It indicates that house prices in Cornwall have increased

by 3.35 times between 1995 and 2014, compared to an increase of 2.79 times

in England.


10737655v5 P42

Figure 10.1 House Prices Indices - Cornwall and England, 1995-2014

Source: Land Registry

10.9 Figure 10.2 shows the average house prices since 1995. It indicates that

house prices in Cornwall were closely aligned with the national average until

2002, but have been above national average since that time, standing at

£183,600 in 2014 compared to £173,500 in England.

Figure 10.2 Average House Prices in Cornwall and England


100

150

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England Cornwall


10737655v5 P43

10.10 In 2014, Cornwall was ranked the 166th most expensive local authority to live in

England, within the top half of all local authorities.

10.11 Table 10.1 shows that over the last 19 years house prices in Cornwall have

risen faster than England in absolute and relative terms.

Table 10.1 House Price change in Cornwall and England

1995 2014 Absolute change

Percentage change

Cornwall UA £55,500 £184,000 +£128,500 +231.5%

England £61,500 £173,500 +£112,000 +182.1%


Affordability

10.12 The PPG identifies that assessing affordability involves comparisons between

the cost of housing and ability to pay. The indicators for this are lower quartile

house prices and lower quartile earnings, which together form an affordability

ratio which can be tracked over time. The affordability ratio is another indicator

of housing supply not keeping pace with demand. As house prices increase in

the absence of wage growth, affordability ratios worsen.

10.13 The data shows that the affordability in Cornwall has been significantly and

consistently higher than that of England, at 8.78 in 2014 compared to 6.88 in

England.


10737655v5 P44

Figure 10.3 Affordability Ratio in Cornwall and England

Sources: Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings (ONS); Land Registry.

Table 10.2 Affordability Ratio Data

1999 2014 Absolute change

% Change

Cornwall 4.47 8.78 4.31 96%

England 3.68 6.88 3.20 87%

Source: CLG Live Table 586/Land Registry

10.14 The affordability ratio highlights a significant constraint on people being able to

access housing in the local area and is indicative of housing market stress,

with house price increases far outstripping rising earnings. Putting these

figures into context, Cornwall was ranked as the 121st least affordable local

authority (out of 326) in 2014. The severity of this market signal demonstrates

that housing delivery will need to be increased to meet an assessment of

demand.

Rental Values

10.15 High and increasing costs of private rents are another indicator of housing

market stress. Although data for this is only available for 2011 to 2015, clear

trends are still apparent within Cornwall.

10.16 In the 12 months to Q1 2015, the median monthly rent in Cornwall was £625.

This is higher than England (£600). Cornwall has higher rents, higher absolute

0.00

2.00

4.00

6.00

8.00

10.00

12.00

1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013Aff

ord

abilit

y R

ati

o:

LQ

House P

rice t

o L

Q

Earn

ings

Cornwall UA England


10737655v5 P45

increases and higher rates of increases compared to England, highlighting the

housing market pressure of private rents in the housing market area. This is

shown in Figure 10.4.

Figure 10.4 Rental prices in Cornwall and England

Source: Valuation Office Agency Private Rental Market Statistics

Overcrowding

10.17 Overcrowding, shared households and homelessness are further indicators

there is unmet housing need in an area. The PPG suggest that long term

increases in the number of these types of households may indicate that

planned housing needs must be increased to account for these.

10.18 The 2011 Census includes detailed data on household occupancy. A standard

formula is applied to a given household to determine the number of rooms they

need; a negative rating indicates a household has fewer rooms than required

(i.e. overcrowding) whilst a positive number implies they have more rooms than

required.

10.19 Table 10.3 shows the percentage of households in Cornwall and England

which are considered to be living in overcrowded accommodation. This is

taken from the 2001 and 2011 Censuses, which use a method based on the

number of people in a household and their relationship to each to determine

how many bedrooms are required.

£0

£100

£200

£300

£400

£500

£600

£700

Q2 2011 Q1 2015 Q2 2011 Q1 2015

Cornwall UA England

Media

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Table 10.3 Overcrowded households in Cornwall and England

2001 2011 Change

% Households

Overcrowded

% Households

Overcrowded

Rank (out of

326)

Cornwall 5.0% 5.8% 145 +0.8 (+14.7%)

England 7.1% 8.7% ~ +1.6 (+22.6%)

Source: Census 2001 and 2011

10.20 Overcrowding is a less significant issue in Cornwall than elsewhere in the

country. In 2011, 5.8% of households were overcrowded; this represented a

14.7% increase between 2001 and 2011, compared to a national average

increase of 22.6% to 8.7%. The increase in overcrowding in Cornwall is

indicative of a shortage of housing but it is ranked as the 145th least

overcrowded authority in England.

Rate of Development

10.21 The rate of development is intended to be a supply-side indicator of previous

under-delivery and the extent to which a backlog of need might have emerged.

One way to overcome the difficulties of dealing with a backlog of housing need

is to compare past completions against the relevant housing requirement for

that period, assuming that this housing requirement was a reasonable and fully

tested basis for that period in order to meet development requirements. This

provides an indicator of the extent to which there may have been previous

unmet needs. With regards to past undersupply of development the PPG sets

out that:

“If the historic rate of development shows that actual supply falls below

planned supply, future supply should be increased to reflect the likelihood of

under-delivery of a plan”. (ID 2a-019-2014036).

10.22 Net housing completions in Cornwall have fluctuated over time but have

averaged 2,412 net new dwellings per annum between 2001/2 and 2013/14.

The emerging Local Plan has set a housing target of 2,375 dwellings per

annum for Cornwall between 2010 and 2030, although this has been criticised

by the Local Plan Inspector and is now subject to further work by the Council.

As has been demonstrated in this report, NLP does not consider this to

represent the FOAN for Cornwall. We would also challenge Cornwall Council’s

application of the emerging Local Plan requirement to assess housing delivery

from 2001/2 – 9 years before the start of the Plan period. It would be preferable


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to apply the Structure Plan target of 1,970 dpa, although we would express a

concern that this lower figure may not have adequately reflected the actual

need for housing across Cornwall.

10.23 During the past 5 years, net housing completions in Cornwall have averaged

2,243 net new dwellings per annum. During this period there has therefore

been an average undersupply of 132 dwellings against the draft Local Plan

requirement of 2,375 dpa.

Table 10.4 Dwelling completions in Cornwall UA from 2001/02 to 2013/14

Completions (net)

Local Plan Requirement

Surplus/Shortfall Cumulative

2001/02 2,485 2,375 109 +109

2002/03 2,635 2,375 260 +369

2003/04 2,171 2,375 -204 +165

2004/05 2,470 2,375 +95 +260

2005/06 2,057 2,375 -318 -58

2006/07 2,504 2,375 +129 +71

2007/08 3,122 2,375 +747 +818

2008/09 2,705 2,375 +330 +1,148

2009/10 2,483 2,375 +108 +1,256

2010/11 2,060 2,375 -315 +941

2011/12 2,375 2,375 0 +941

2012/13 2,256 2,375 -119 +822

2013/14 2,040 2,375 -335 +487

Total 31,363 30,875 +487

Source: Housing Land Availability report 2013-14

Affordable Housing

10.24 One of the key objectives of the Council’s housing policies is to ensure the

needs of all sections of the community, including those in need of affordable

housing, are met.

10.25 The stock of affordable housing has increased steadily over the last 10 years in

Cornwall but this increase has not been sufficient to meet demand and has

fallen substantially below the target contained within the emerging Local Plan

of 50% in zones 1 and 2 and 40% in zones 3, 4 and 5. The average level of

affordable housing delivery has also fallen below the 36% and 30% rates that

NLP has tested in Section 8.


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Table 10.5 Affordable housing completions from 2003/04 to 2013/14

Affordable Housing Completions (net)

Affordable Housing as % of completions

2001/02 235 9.46%

2002/03 268 10.16%

2003/04 283 12.96%

2004/05 368 14.75%

2005/06 395 18.95%

2006/07 358 13.71%

2007/08 708 22.27%

2008/09 738 25.65%

2009/10 788 31.86%

2010/11 660 32.03%

2011/12 718 30.23%

2012/13 652 28.62%

2013/14 594 29.11%

Total 6,262 28.9%

Source: Housing Land Availability report 2013-14

10.26 The Council recognises that there is a relatively high level of unmet need for

affordable housing in the area. As of 2013, there were 5,480 households in

Cornwall classified as in need of affordable homes. It is estimated that the

stock of affordable housing will be insufficient to meet people’s needs. The

total arising need for affordable housing was 2,656 households and the annual

supply of affordable housing amounts to 1,342 houses, leaving a net new need

of 1,314 affordable houses per annum8.

10.27 There also exists a shortfall in Affordable Housing in Cornwall, amounting in a

backlog of affordable housing of 926 dwellings which needs to be made up

over the next 5 years. This results in a total affordable housing need of 30,912

dwellings which equates to an annual need of 2,240 dpa over the next 5 years,

followed by an annual need of 1,314 dpa thereafter.

10.28 In addition, as at 1 April 2014 there were 26,915 households in Cornwall who

have expressed a requirement for affordable housing on the housing waiting

list9. With house prices beginning to rise there is no reason to suggest that the

affordability of market housing will improve significantly in the short term to

reduce the number of households on the housing waiting lists without

intervention.

8 Cornwall SHMNA Overview Report October 2013 Part 2 / Affordable Housing Briefing Note 2: Tables 6 and 7

9 Source: DCLG Total households on the housing waiting list at 1st April


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Synthesis of Market Signals

10.29 As is clear from preceding analysis, market signals do point towards serious –

and increasing – pressure across Cornwall. It faces particularly significant

challenges with regards to affordability and a failure to match demand with

supply. This is causing problems in terms of pushing up house prices and

rental values, increasing affordability pressures and thereby generating

increasingly adverse outcomes for people who still need to access the housing

market.

10.30 The above analysis thus shows that there is considerable pressure across the

housing market area, meaning that an upwards adjustment to need is

necessary compared to that based upon demographic-led needs. Although we

recognise that the Local Plan Inspector concluded that no uplift should be

made in response to market signals, there is a real concerned that this would

fail to address the challenges that exist within the local housing market. NLP

agrees with the Inspector that a large increase is likely to be necessary to

make a substantial difference to the market pressures. It is noted that in

Eastleigh, Inspector Emmerson concluded that an uplift of 10% “would be

compatible with the ‘modest’ pressure of market signals”, whilst the Inspector

at Canterbury concluded that a 20% uplift would be appropriate to reflect more

severe market pressures.

10.31 NLP consider that an uplift of this order above the baseline scenario would be

appropriate. This would point towards a housing need of 58,000 to 61,000.

This evidence of market signals also underlines the importance of applying

economic-led, rather than just demographic-led, scenarios of housing need,

and it is noted that the conclusions set out in Section 9 in respect of the

employment-led align with this level of housing need.


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11.0 Distribution within Cornwall

11.1 The NPPF requires FOAN to be assessed at HMA level. The issue of FOAN

within a Local Authority Area and HMA level was considered by Hickinbottom J

in the Oadby and Wigston HCJ. Paragraph 35 of the Judgment states that the

assessment of the housing land supply cannot be undertaken at an HMA level

as part of a Section 78 Inquiry process:

“…In a development control context, a local planning authority could not

realistically demonstrate such a thing on a HMA-wide basis, which would

require consideration of both housing needs and supply stocks across the

whole HMA…”

11.2 In this case, however, the Local Plan Inspector has accepted that “Cornwall is

sufficiently aligned with a single housing market area for housing needs to be

considered on a Cornwall-only basis”. It is therefore not necessary on this

occasion to consider the FOAN separately for the HMA and the local authority

area as they are one and the same thing.

11.3 Paragraph 47 of the NPPF requires a five year supply of housing land to be

identified at a local authority level, rather than across a wider HMA or at a sub-

district level. In spite of its size, the housing land position in Cornwall must be

assessed across Cornwall as a whole.

11.4 However, notwithstanding this, the Council has sought to demonstrate the

distribution of future housing development across different Community Network

Areas (CNA). In the light of this, it is perhaps helpful to consider the potential

level of housing that might be required within the Hayle and St Ives CNA, albeit

that it is important to note that the distribution of housing raises policy issues

and so goes beyond the scope of a consideration of the FOAN.

11.5 Cornwall Council’s Housing Growth and Distribution Paper (January 2012)

indicated that:

a The population of the Hayle and St Ives CNA equated to 4.8% of total for

Cornwall; and,

b The dwelling stock within the Hayle and St Ives CNA equated to 5.2% of

the total for Cornwall.


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11.6 The Hayle and St Ives CNA summary, contained in Appendix 1 of the Housing

Growth and Distribution Paper indicated that the preferred approach for Hayle

was for “higher level of growth to support regeneration objectives”. This would

appear to support a level of future housing growth above the proportion of

existing population and housing stock and to this end, the Hayle and St Ives

CNA was to accommodate 2,900 out of 48,000 dwellings, equivalent to 6% of

the total level of housing that was proposed for Cornwall as a whole at that

time.

11.7 Policy PP2 of the draft Cornwall Local Plan made provision for 2,750 new

homes in the Hayle and St Ives CNA, equivalent to 5.8% of the 47,500

dwellings for which it made provision across Cornwall. This figure was to be

distributed across the CNA as follows:

a The provision of around 1,400 dwellings in Hayle in the period up to 2030

to be phased in relation to infrastructure requirements;

b The provision of around 1,000 dwellings in St Ives in the period up to

2030; and,

c The provision of around 350 dwellings in the remainder of the CNA in the

period up to 2030.

11.8 The Local Plan Inspector accepted that the baseline approach to the

distribution of housing growth across the Community Network Areas would be

the application of a pro-rata apportionment of the existing position. He

indicated that where the allocation to a CNA varies materially from this, a clear

explanation would be required. The intended regeneration aims for Hayle might

be used to justify a deviation from the current position, although the level of

growth that was proposed for the Hayle and St Ives CNA cannot realistically be

viewed as being “materially different” to the baseline position.

11.9 This report has established that the FOAN for Cornwall is between 58,508 and

66,214 dwellings between 2010 and 2030. Based on the distribution proposed

by the Local Plan, the housing need for the CNA should therefore be between

3,393 and 3,840 dwellings over the Local Plan period (170 – 192 dpa).

11.10 Based on the existing population and dwelling stock, the housing need for the

CNA should be:


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a Population-led (4.8%): between 2,810 and 3,180 dwellings between 2010

and 2030 (140 – 159 dpa); and

b Housing-led (5.2%): between 3,040 and 3,445 dwellings between 2010

and 2030 (152 – 172 dpa).

11.11 It is important to emphasie that this calculation is not intended to inform any

assessment of need within the CNA, it is does provide a general indication of

the likely scale of growth that the Hayle St Ives CNA might be required to

accommodate over the Local Plan period. Against this context, the proposed

development would constitute the equivalent of between 1.2 and 1.6 years’

local housing supply.


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12.0 Conclusion

12.1 This report has considered the FOAN for Cornwall over the period from 2010 to

2030, taking account of official population and household projections, together

with employment forecasts.

12.2 Drawing upon the policy contained within the NPPF and the guidance set out in

the PPG, this report has demonstrated the importance of ensuring that:

a There is an adequate supply of housing within Cornwall in the future;

b Housing and employment policies are aligned; and,

c Adequate consideration is given to market signals in seeking to identify

the FOAN.

12.3 In preparing this evidence, NLP has tested the demographic, economic and

housing implications of the following scenarios:

a 2012-based Sub National Population Projections / Sub National

Household Projections (baseline);

b Mid Year Population Estimates (Long Term Migration) Scenario; and,

c Employment-led scenarios (Experian and LEP employment growth).

12.4 In each case, the implications of the household formation rates set out within

the 2012-based SNHP have been tested alongside a partial return to the long

term trend amongst the 15-34 age cohort.

12.5 NLP has also considered the implications of meeting the identified level of

affordable housing need in full.

12.6 The implications of each of these scenarios are set out below:

Table 12.1 Summary of Demographic Scenarios

A: 2012 SNPP / SNHP

Ai: SNPP / SNHP PRR








Dwellings p.a. 2,434 2,545 2,463 2,589 2,303 2,426

Labour Force 8,123 21,113 16,649


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A: 2012 SNPP / SNHP

Ai: SNPP / SNHP PRR





Jobs 15,864 26,268 22,693

Jobs p.a. 793 1,313 1,135


Table 12.2 Summary of Economic Scenarios

C: Experian Forecast

Ci: Experian PRR

D: SEP Strategy

Di:SEP PRR

Dii (a): Contination of SEP

Dii (b): Contination of SEP PRR




Dwellings p.a. 2,793 2,925 3,174 3,311 3,681 3,829

Labour Force 29,796 38,874 52,720

Jobs 33,223 40,495 51,585

Jobs p.a. 1,661 2,025 2,579


Objectively assessed need for housing

12.7 The NPPF states that the FOAN for housing must meet household and

population projections, taking account of migration and demographic change

(the demographic-led scenarios) and employment change (the economic-led

scenarios), as well as market signals and the need for affordable housing.

12.8 This analysis identifies that an appropriate figure for the FOAN for Cornwall

equates to between 58,508 and 66,214 dwellings between 2010 and 2030

(2,925 – 3,311 dpa). These figures have been determined in accordance with

the requirements of the NPPF and the PPG.

Starting point – demographic needs

12.9 The 2012-based SNPP/SNHP scenario provides an assessment of the housing

need arising from the most recent household and population projections.

These projections indicate a demographic-led need of 48,686 dwellings

between 2010 and 2030 (2,434 dpa).

12.10 This figure is slightly higher than the requirement for 47,500 dwellings

contained within the draft Local Plan. However, it represents only a starting

point in the assessment of housing need for Cornwall, which should be

adjusted to reflect economic trends and market signals (PPG ID: 2a-015-


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20140306 and 2a-020-20140306). The demographic structure of this

population change in Section 9 (paragraphs 9.11 to 9.14 and Table 9.3)

indicates that this scenario would exacerbate the impacts of an ageing

population. The limited increase in working age people would fail to support the

level of job growth anticipated by the LEP and endorsed by the Cornwall Local

Plan Inspector.

12.11 In order to take account of the fact that the 2012-based SNHP have been

heavily influenced by the recession, NLP has applied an increase in headship

rates amongst the 15-34 age groups in line with longer term trends. This

approach indicates a higher level of housing need, which is considered to be

appropriate because it takes proper account of the likelihood that household

formation rates (and hence, the demand for housing) will increase as the

economy improves and people become more able to realise their housing

ambitions rather than being forced into concealed households. By adjusting the

household formation rates using this approach, the housing need associated

with the 2012-based SNPP/SNHP scenario, the number of dwellings required

over the Plan period is increased to 50,903.

12.12 The importance of ensuring that the housing requirement reflects the expected

future increase in household formation rates leads towards the clear

conclusion that the “partial catch-up” scenarios should be applied in preference

to the scenarios which apply headship rates derived from the 2012-based

SNHP, which suffer from a “recency bias” and which effectively perpetuate the

conditions that have characterised the recent past.

12.13 The long term migration scenario (Scenario B) applies the average 10-year

migration trends for Cornwall from the most up-to-date ONS Mid-Year

Estimates, for the years 2004/05 to 2013/14. Given that the SNPP figures

would have been affected by the conditions experienced during the recession,

this long term trend is considered to provide a preferable and more reliable

indication of the likely level of future population change in Cornwall. This

scenario indicates a need for 49,258 dwellings using the SNHP headship rates

or 51,779 using the partial catch-up approach for the 15-34 age groups, as

described above. This approach would support almost double the number of

additional jobs in Cornwall compared to the SNPP/SNHP scenarios, although


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there is still a large difference between this level of employment growth and

that anticipated by the LEP.

12.14 UPC remains a matter of considerable debate, but it is significant that ONS did

not make any allowance for UPC in the 2012 SNPP. The inclusion of UPC

within the modelling indicates that there will be a higher increase in population

but a lower need for housing than the SNPP/SNHP scenario. This disparity is

due to differences in the age profile of people moving into the area and the

implications in terms of natural change and household formation. However,

given the uncertainties associated with UPC, it is not considered that it would

be appropriate to adjust the baseline to reflect this sensitivity.

12.15 The NPPF espouses government priorities relating to economic growth and

achieving an increase in housing completions. Accepting the level of housing

need indicated by the demographic scenarios would result in an imbalance

between proposed housing delivery and the anticipated level of employment

growth. This approach would conflict with NPPF paragraph 158 in terms of

making sure that housing and employment strategies are integrated.

12.16 The level of population growth indicated by the demographic-led scenarios

would fail to provide the number of workers that would be required to fill the

anticipated number of new jobs. This approach also does not account for the

fact that the population is ageing and so will support fewer jobs in future.

Therefore, there will be a need for additional working age people to move into

the area in order to fill both existing and newly forming jobs.

Do market signals indicate the need for an upwards adjustment to purely demographic led needs?

12.17 The market indicators assessed in Chapter 10 show that there are significant

imbalances between the demand for and supply of housing in Cornwall. This

analysis indicates pressure on the housing market, which will not be addressed

by providing only for the level of growth produced by the continuation of

demographic trends. A response is clearly required through an adjustment to

the demographic-based scenarios, in line with the guidance set out in the PPG.


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Is there a need to increase housing supply to meet the economic potential of Cornwall?

12.18 Reflecting the requirements of paragraph 19 of the NPPF, Cornwall should do

“everything (it) can to support sustainable economic growth”. Both of the

employment-led scenarios in this assessment indicate there would need to be

an increase in housing to align with economic growth over the Plan period.

12.19 Basing the housing requirement figure in Cornwall on the employment

forecasts would ensure an aligned strategy, as required by NPPF paragraph

158. This approach would also reflect government priorities relating to

supporting economic growth through the planning system, as expressed in the

NPPF (paragraphs 18-19).

12.20 Whilst, unhelpfully, the draft Local Plan does not include an employment target,

the Local Plan Inspector has requested that the Council provides this figure.

The Inspector has endorsed the level of employment indicated by the LEP

strategy, but this strategy only covers the period until 2020.

12.21 At the Local Plan Examination, the Council indicated orally that an additional

30,000 to 50,000 jobs would be required in order to fulfil the aims of its

economic strategy. The 50,000 jobs figure had previously been included in the

Local Plan but has since been taken out. However, this range of growth

reflects the increase in employment modelled in scenarios C and D in this

report.

12.22 The employment-led scenarios presented in this analysis provide the following

advantages over the demographic-led scenarios:

a The employment-led scenarios are forward-looking and represent a

positive approach to planning, in terms of supporting a specified level of

economic growth; meanwhile, a demographic-led approach is backward-

looking as it bases the assessment of future need on past trends only.

b They provide alignment with anticipated employment growth and support

the achievement of LEP objectives.

c They offer a greater ability to attract and retain employment by helping to

maintain an appropriate workforce; this is an important consideration,


10737655v5 P58

given the geographical location of Cornwall, due to the long distances

involved for in-commuters, particularly for Hayle.

d The results of these scenarios provide a more balanced demographic

structure, which is a more sustainable outcome for local communities.

e Applying an employment-led approach would not exacerbate market

signals; however, it is not expected that the delivery of this level of

housing would be sufficient to reduce house prices in the area or

increase affordability.

f An increased level of housing overall would enable the provision of a

higher level of affordable housing, albeit that the employment-led

scenarios would not be sufficient to address the identified level of

affordable housing need in full.

12.23 As such, there is considerable justification for an FOAN figure which is greater

than the starting point of the demographic-led needs.

Is there a need to increase housing supply to aid the delivery of affordable housing?

12.24 The Local Plan Inspector has accepted a level of affordable housing need of

30,912 dwellings in Cornwall over the Plan period but noted that the Council

has failed to consider how it might be addressed. The failure to adequately

respond to affordable housing needs is a fundamental shortcoming,

particularly in the context of the findings of Inspector Emmerson in relation to

the Eastleigh Local Plan10

:

“The failure of the Council to recognise the true scale of need for affordable

housing and therefore the consequential failure to consider how it might be

addressed is a serious shortcoming” (paragraph 33).

12.25 In order to meet the identified level of affordable housing need in full, the

overall housing requirement would need to be substantially higher. In this case,

the housing requirement would exceed that indicated by the economic-led

scenarios.

10

Eastleigh Borough Local Plan 2011-2029 Examination. Inspector’s Preliminary Conclusions on housing need and supply and

economic growth. 28 November 2014.Core Document H.8


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12.26 Although Local Plans are not required to meet their affordable housing needs

in full, a high level of affordable housing need indicates that an uplift should be

applied to the demographic baseline figure to contribute toward addressing this

need. The Council has not applied such an uplift. Given that the economic

scenarios indicate a need for homes that is significantly higher than the

demographic scenarios, it is considered that this level of provision would help

to contribute towards helping to meet affordable housing needs, and therefore

no further uplift is necessary.

12.27 The evidence on affordable housing need in Cornwall further demonstrates the

need to deviate from the demographic-led scenario. However, in this case we

have not applied a further increase beyond that included in the employment

scenarios.

Conclusion on full objectively assessed housing need

12.28 This assessment indicates that the demographic-led scenarios would not

provide a sufficient level of population to support expected levels of economic

growth, contribute towards the delivery of affordable housing or respond to

evidence of market pressure. Significant adjustments are therefore required to

reflect these considerations.

12.29 As such, an upward adjustment above demographic-led needs is appropriate.

In this context, and reflecting the scale of difference between dwelling need

under each scenario, NLP considers that an economic-led figure of

between 58,508 and 66,214 dwellings would be appropriate for Cornwall

between 2010 and 2030 (2,925 – 3,311 dpa).

12.30 These figures represent a conservative assessment of need, particularly due to

uncertainty in the level of job growth expected from 2020 to 2030; therefore,

the number of homes needed to meet the LEP’s economic objectives could be

higher.

12.31 This approach allows for the improvement of negatively performing market

signals through the provision of additional supply, as well as helping to deliver

affordable housing and support economic growth. Using these figures to inform

the Development Strategy would ensure compliance with paragraph 47 of the


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NPPF by significantly boosting the supply of housing. It would also reflect

paragraph 19 of the NPPF, which seeks to ensure the planning system does

everything it can to support sustainable economic growth.


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Appendix 1 HEaDROOM Framework

Figure 12.1 NLP HEaDROOM Analytical Framework for Assessing Housing Requirements


10737655v5

Appendix 2 Legal and Policy Background


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13.0 Legal and Planning Policy Background

13.1 This section sets out a number of legal and policy background issues that are

relevant to the determination of FOAN.

National Planning Policy Framework (March 2012)

13.2 The National Planning Policy Framework (NPPF) sets out the Government’s

planning policies for England and is centred around a presumption in favour of

sustainable development “which should be seen as a golden thread running

through both plan-making and decision-taking” (Paragraph 14). This requires

local planning authorities to positively seek opportunities to meet the

development needs of their area. To this end, Local Plans are required to meet

objectively assessed needs, with sufficient flexibility to adapt to rapid change.

13.3 The NPPF contains a set of core land-use planning principles which underpin

plan-making and decision-taking. These include driving and supporting

sustainable economic development to deliver homes, business units and

thriving local places. In order to achieve this objective, paragraph 17 requires

“every effort” to be made to identify and then meet the housing, business and

other development needs of the area, and to respond positively to wider

opportunities for growth. In seeking to quantify such requirements,

consideration is also to be given to market signals, such as land prices and

housing affordability.

13.4 Paragraph 47 contains the requirement for Local Planning Authorities to “boost

significantly the supply of housing” by using the evidence base to “ensure that

their Local Plan meets the full, objectively assessed needs for market and

affordable housing”.

13.5 This is further emphasised in the tests of soundness with which all Local Plans

must comply. In addition to being justified and representing the most

appropriate strategy, based on proportionate evidence, they must be:

“Positively prepared… based on a strategy which seeks to meet objectively

assessed development and infrastructure requirements, including meeting

unmet requirements from neighbouring authorities where it is reasonable to do

so…” (Paragraph 182).


P68

13.6 In identifying the objectively assessed level of need, Paragraph 158 requires

local planning authorities to apply “adequate, up-to-date and relevant

evidence” and “ensure that their assessment and strategies for housing,

employment and other uses are integrated, and that they take full account of

relevant market and economic signals”.

13.7 Considering the evidence required to underpin a local housing requirement,

including the need to assess full housing needs, Paragraph 159 states that

Local Planning Authorities should:

"Prepare a Strategic Housing Market Assessment to assess their full housing

needs… identify the scale and mix of housing and the range of tenures that the

local population is likely to need over the plan period which;

• Meets household and population projections, taking account of migration

and demographic change;

• Addresses the needs for all types of housing, including affordable

housing… ; and,

• Caters for housing demand and the scale of housing supply necessary to

meet this demand."

Planning Practice Guidance (March 2014)

13.8 The Planning Practice Guidance (PPG) was launched in March 2014 and has

been subsequently updated in part. It contains the most up to date evidence on

how full objectively assessed needs should be assessed.

13.9 The PPG requires the assessment of development needs to be proportionate

and based only upon a consideration of future scenarios that could reasonably

be expected to occur. However, it should also be based on facts and unbiased

evidence, and plan makers should not apply constraints to the overall

assessment of need:

“The assessment of development needs is an objective assessment of need

based on facts and unbiased evidence. Plan makers should not apply

constraints to the overall assessment of need, such as limitations imposed by

the supply of land for new development, historic under performance

infrastructure or environmental constraints. However, these considerations will

need to be addressed when bringing evidence bases together to identify

specific policies within development plans” (2a-004-20140306; NLP emphasis).


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13.10 Although the Guidance states that household projections published biennially

by the DCLG should provide the starting point for an estimation of housing

need this does not mean that they represent the end point in this process. The

PPG recognises that such projections are trend based and do not attempt to

predict the impact of future government policies, changing economic

circumstances or other factors that might impact upon demographic behaviour.

As such, the household projection-based estimate of housing need may

require adjustment to reflect factors affecting local demography and household

formation rates which are not captured in past trends:

“Household projections published by the Department for Communities and

Local Government should provide the starting point estimate of overall housing

need.

“The household projections are produced by applying projected household

representative rates to the population projections published by the Office for

National Statistics. Projected household representative rates are based on

trends observed in Census and Labour Force Survey data.

“The household projections are trend based, i.e. they provide the household

levels and structures that would result if the assumptions based on previous

demographic trends in the population and rates of household formation were to

be realised in practice. They do not attempt to predict the impact that future

government policies, changing economic circumstances or other factors might

have on demographic behaviour.

“The household projection-based estimate of housing need may require

adjustment to reflect factors affecting local demography and household

formation rates which are not captured in past trends. For example, formation

rates may have been suppressed historically by under-supply and worsening

affordability of housing. The assessment will therefore need to reflect the

consequences of past under delivery of housing. As household projections do

not reflect unmet housing need, local planning authorities should take a view

based on available evidence of the extent to which household formation rates

are or have been constrained by supply” (2a-015-20140306; NLP emphasis).

13.11 The PPG requires local needs assessments to be informed by the latest

available information “wherever possible” and specifies that “the 2012-2037

Household Projections were published on 27 February 2015, and are the most


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up-to-date estimate of future household growth” (2a-016-20150227). It goes on

to state that:

“The household projections produced by the Department for Communities and

Local Government are statistically robust and are based on nationally

consistent assumptions. However, plan makers may consider sensitivity

testing, specific to their local circumstances, based on alternative assumptions

in relation to the underlying demographic projections and household formation

rates. Account should also be taken of the most recent demographic evidence

including the latest Office of National Statistics population estimates.

“Any local changes would need to be clearly explained and justified on the

basis of established sources of robust evidence” (2a-017-20140306; NLP

emphasis).

13.12 The PPG recognises the direct link that exists between economic and housing

growth and states that plan makers should make an assessment of the likely

growth in job numbers based on past trends or employment forecasts. Where

the supply of working age population (labour force supply) is less than the

projected job growth, plan makers are required to consider how the location of

housing and infrastructure might help to reduce unsustainable commuting

patterns and improve the resilience of local businesses. As part of this, it might

also be appropriate to consider increasing the local housing numbers:

“Plan makers should make an assessment of the likely growth in job numbers

based on past trends and/or economic forecasts as appropriate and also

having regard to the growth of the working age population in the housing

market area. Any cross-boundary migration assumptions, particularly where

one area decides to assume a lower internal migration figure than the housing

market area figures suggest, will need to be agreed with the other relevant

local planning authority under the duty to cooperate. Failure to do so will mean

that there would be an increase in unmet housing need.

“Where the supply of working age population (labour force supply) is less than

the projected job growth, this will result in unsustainable commuting patterns …

and could reduce the resilience of local businesses. In such circumstances,

plan makers will need to consider how the location of new housing or

infrastructure development could help address these” (2a-018-20140306; NLP

emphasis).


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13.13 Finally, the PPG recognises the importance of giving due consideration to

appropriate market signals, as well as other market indicators of the balance

between the demand for and supply of dwellings. Housing prices are seen as

one of the key indicators of this and affordability is also another key measure.

The PPG makes clear that these matters need to be dealt with through the

provision of more housing to address the imbalance. It states that any

adjustment that is made to reflect market signals should be reasonable and

proportionate but does not provide any guidance on what level of adjustment to

make in any given situation:

“The housing need number suggested by household projections (the starting

point) should be adjusted to reflect appropriate market signals, as well as other

market indicators of the balance between the demand for and supply of

dwellings. Prices or rents rising faster than the national/local average may well

indicate particular market undersupply relative to demand” (2a-019-20140306).

“Appropriate comparisons of indicators should be made. This includes

comparison with longer term trends (both in absolute levels and rates of

change) in the: housing market area; similar demographic and economic

areas; and nationally. Divergence under any of these circumstances will

require upward adjustment to planned housing numbers compared to ones

based solely on household projections. Volatility in some indicators requires

care to be taken: in these cases rolling average comparisons may be helpful to

identify persistent changes and trends.

“In areas where an upward adjustment is required, plan makers should set this

adjustment at a level that is reasonable. The more significant the affordability

constraints (as reflected in rising prices and rents, and worsening affordability

ratio) and the stronger other indicators of high demand (e.g. the differential

between land prices), the larger the improvement in affordability needed and,

therefore, the larger the additional supply response should be.


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“Market signals are affected by a number of economic factors, and plan

makers should not attempt to estimate the precise impact of an increase in

housing supply. Rather they should increase planned supply by an amount

that, on reasonable assumptions and consistent with principles of sustainable

development, could be expected to improve affordability, and monitor the

response of the market over the plan period” (2a-020-20140306; NLP

emphasis).

13.14 An understanding of the FOAN for housing should also take account of the

need for affordable housing. The PPG provides specific guidance on the

assessment of affordable housing, stating that:

“Plan makers working with relevant colleagues within their local authority (e.g.

housing, health and social care departments) will need to estimate the number

of households and projected households who lack their own housing or live in

unsuitable housing and who cannot afford to meet their housing needs in the

market.

“This calculation involves adding together the current unmet housing need and

the projected future housing need and then subtracting this from the current

supply of affordable housing stock” (2a-022-20140306).

13.15 It goes on to state that:

“The total affordable housing need should then be considered in the context of

its likely delivery as a proportion of mixed market and affordable housing

developments, given the probable percentage of affordable housing to be

delivered by market housing led developments. An increase in the total

housing figures included in the local plan should be considered where it could

help deliver the required number of affordable homes” (2a-029-20140306; NLP

emphasis).

13.16 It is against this policy context that the housing requirement for Cornwall must

be considered, with the key consideration being whether full objectively

assessed development needs are to be met for the local authority area (which

has been found to comprise a complete Housing Market Area).


10737655v5

High Court and Court of Appeal Judgments

13.17 Identifying the objectively assessed need for housing in Cornwall is important

to this inquiry as it will have a direct impact upon the assessment of whether

the Council has a five year housing supply.

13.18 The question of what housing requirement figure to apply when considering

whether a five year housing supply can be demonstrated has occupied a large

amount of time at numerous planning inquiries and High Court cases. Three

alternative potential approaches can be identified from a review of recent

cases:

a The evidence base of the RS or emerging RS;

b The figure proposed by the local authority in an emerging Plan; and,

c The result of a recent assessment of full objectively assessed need.

13.19 The outcome of these cases has been to emphasise the importance of

providing robust evidence on the FOAN in order to inform any consideration of

the housing land position within a particular local authority area.

High Court Judgment: Stratford on Avon11 (July 2013)

13.20 The Secretary of State’s appeal decision for a large site at Shottery on the

edge of Stratford upon Avon was the subject of a High Court Challenge on the

grounds that, in determining the housing requirement for the Plan period, the

Inspector (and Secretary of State) had undermined the role of the Council. In

rejecting this claim, the Judge stated that:

a The Inspector was required to consider the housing need in order to

adequately assess the housing supply position:

“Of course, an assessment of future housing requirements is essential for

the purposes of the development plan. But, equally, the housing

requirement position must be considered when a planning application is

made for housing development” (Paragraph 37).

11

Stratford on Avon District Council v Secretary of State for Communities and Local Government and J S Bloor (Tewkesbury)

Limited, Hallam Land Management Limited and RASE (Residents Against Shottery Expansion) (2013). EWHC 2074.


P74

“…the Inspector had to determine the housing supply issue … That

necessarily meant determining what the housing requirements and

supply were at the time of his report” (Paragraph 38).

b This process would not undermine the role of the Local Plan process or

the Local Plan examination Inspector:

“However, in coming to that necessary assessment in the context of a

specific planning application/appeal, the Inspector was of course not

binding the Council as to the relevant housing requirement so far as the

development plan (now, in the form of the Council’s Core Strategy) was

concerned” (Paragraph 39).

“Equally, in deciding on the housing requirement for the district on the

evidence before him and for the purposes of the particular planning

application he was considering, the Inspector was not seeking to (and did

not in fact) bind the Council, or another inspector or the Secretary of

State, as to the housing requirement in other applications and appeals”

(Paragraph 42).

High Court and Court of Appeal Judgments: St Albans and Hunston Properties12,13 (August and November 2013)

Reliance on Figures contained within Regional Strategy

13.21 The housing requirement for five year supply calculations was commonly

based on the evidence base for an adopted or emerging Regional Strategy for

a considerable period of time after the Government’s announcements

regarding the revocation of Regional Strategies. Even following the formal

revocation of individual regional strategies, Inspectors and the Secretary of

State were content to apply the evidence that underpinned the relevant RS.

However, the Hunston decision cast serious doubt on this approach in

circumstances where the decision maker is presented with evidence of full,

objectively assessed need. The High Court found that the Inspector had erred

in law by favouring the housing requirement contained within the East of

England Regional Strategy when the Appellant had presented more up-to-date

evidence of full objective assessment of needs, as required by the NPPF,

albeit that what the Appellants did was nothing more than present the 2008

12

Hunston Properties v Secretary of State for CLG and St Albans City and District Council (2013). EWHC 2678. 13

R v City and District of St Albans (2013). EWCA Civ 1610.


10737655v5

household projections which do not define the full objectively assessed need

as set out in the PPG. It was, however, the evidence which was before the

Inspector and far more up to date than the figure from the revoked RS, which

the Court of Appeal was firm in rejecting. Paragraph 25 of the Court of Appeal

Judgements states:

“I am not persuaded that the inspector was entitled to use a housing

requirement figure derived from a revoked plan, even as a proxy for what the

local plan process may produce eventually”.

Constrained Approach to Establishing FOAN

13.22 The unacceptability of assessing the five year housing supply on the basis of a

constrained housing requirement figure was specifically discussed in the

Hunston Judgment:

“I do not see how it can be open to a LPA or Inspector to reach a conclusion as

to whether that very special circumstances had been made out by reference to

a figure that does not even purport to reflect the full objectively assessed

needs for market and affordable housing applicable at the time the figure was

arrived at … A figure that takes account of constraints should not have any role

to play in assessing an assertion by an applicant in the position of HPL that an

actual housing requirement has not been met..

“I consider the reasoning of the inspector in Planning Appeal

X1165/A/11/2165846 to be entirely convincing. As the inspector in that appeal

said in Paragraph 47 of that Decision ‘…constraints do not bear upon the

actual need for dwellings … the stage at which growth constraints should be

taken into account is when assessing how the identified need can be

addressed … they cannot reasonably be used … simply to reduce the number

of dwellings calculated as necessary to meet housing need’. In reality this is

precisely the course of action adopted by the Inspector in this case” (HCJ

Paragraph 28).

13.23 It was for this reason that the appeal succeeded and the decision of the

Inspector to dismiss the s.78 appeal was quashed.

13.24 The Court of Appeal Judgment supported this view by recognising that the

qualification set out in Paragraph 47(1) of the NPPF relates to the extent to


P76

which the Local Plan should meet the FOAN, rather than relating specifically to

housing needs themselves:

“The words in paragraph 47(1), ‘as far as is consistent with the policies set out

in this Framework’ remind one that the Framework is to be read as a whole,

but their specific role in that sub-paragraph seems to me to be related to the

approach to be adopted in producing the Local Plan. If one looks at what is

said in that sub-paragraph, it is advising local planning authorities

‘to ensure that their Local Plan meets the full, objectively

assessed need for market and affordable housing in the

housing market area, as far as is consistent with the policies set

out in this Framework’.

“That qualification contained in the last clause quoted is not qualifying housing

needs. It is qualifying the extent to which the Local Plan should go to meet

those needs. The needs assessment, objectively arrived at, is not affected in

advance of the production of the Local Plan which will then set the

requirement figure” (CAJ Paragraph 25; NLP emphasis).

13.25 This is important in highlighting that the FOAN is not to be the subject of

qualification or adjustment, but rather that consideration of consistency with

other policies in the framework may affect the extent to which it can be

satisfied.

13.26 However, at Paragraph 26 of the Court of Appeal Judgement, Sir David Keene

underlined that the second stage of the analysis (i.e. the assessment of

constraints) should only take place as part of a Local Plan process rather than

as a s.78 appeal:

“…it is not for an inspector on a s.78 appeal to seek to carry out some sort of

local plan process as part of determining the appeal, so as to arrive at a

constrained housing requirement figure. An inspector in that situation is not in a

position to carry out such an exercise in a proper fashion, since it is impossible

for any rounded assessment similar to the local plan process to be done. That

process is an elaborate one involving many parties who are not present at or

involved in the s.78 appeal”.


10737655v5

13.27 The implication of the Hunston Judgment for this appeal is that, in considering

the FOAN for Cornwall (which then informs an understanding of the housing

supply position), a constrained figure must not be applied.

High Court Judgment: South Northamptonshire Council and Barwood Land and Estates Ltd14 (March 2014)

13.28 The Hunston decision was subsequently considered in the South

Northamptonshire HCJ. In this case, Ouseley J emphasised that because “the

revoked RSS housing figure for St Albans had been constrained by policy

considerations, notably the extensive Green Belt” (Paragraph 23) it was

entirely appropriate that it should not be used for the purposes of Paragraph 47

of the NPPF.

13.29 Paragraph 34 of the Judgment states that:

“Hunston did not decide that a revoked RSS was expunged from history. It

decided that the policies of a revoked RSS, and the same would be true of an

out of date Plan, in the application of paragraph 47 NPPF, could not be used to

affect the full objective assessment of housing needs”.

13.30 The Judge concluded that an RSS or any other plan would be unlawfully relied

upon if the housing requirement contained within it was constrained by supply-

side matters.

High Court and Court of Appeal Judgements: Gallagher Homes Ltd and Lioncourt Homes Ltd15,16 (April 2014 and December 2014)

13.31 By way of background, the Solihull Local Plan (SLP) proposed a housing

provision of 11,000 dwellings between 2006 and 2028. This was based upon

the West Midlands RSS Phase 2 Revision Draft figure as amended, although

the Council also considered the implications of more recent 2008 and 2011-

based household projections and the 2009 SHMA.

13.32 Neither the SLP nor the Inspector’s Report identified a specific figure for the

objectively assessed housing need. However, the Council submitted that it was

not necessary to identify such a figure and that, on proper analysis of the

14

South Northamptonshire Council v Secretary of State for CLG and Barwood Land and Estates Ltd (2014). EWHC 573. 15

Gallagher Homes Ltd and Lioncourt Homes Ltd v Solihull Metropolitan Borough Council (2014). EWHC 1283. 16

R v Solihull Metropolitan Borough Council (2014). EWCA Civ 1610.


P78

Inspector’s Report, the substantive requirements of the NPPF (including those

of paragraphs 47 and 159) were satisfied.

13.33 The Council also submitted that the RS figure had taken account of the

evidence of housing need as well as constraining policy factors, including

those relating to urban renaissance, the Green Belt and the wish to maintain

the high quality environment in Solihull.

13.34 As no significant changes had occurred since that time in respect of policy,

demographic trends or other factors that relate to housing need and in these

circumstances, the Council claimed that the requirements of the NPPF had

been satisfied.

13.35 The High Court rejected the Council’s case and concluded that the Inspector

has erred in law as a result of “a failure to grapple with the issue of full

objectively assessed housing need, with which the NPPF required him, in

some way, to deal” (HCJ Paragraph 76).

13.36 In Paragraph 80 of the HCJ, the Hickinbottom J notes that “for a plan to be

sound, it needs to address and seek to meet full, objectively assessed housing

needs for market and affordable housing in the housing market area, unless

(and only to the extent that) any adverse impacts of doing so would

significantly and demonstrably outweigh the benefits, when assessed against

the policies in the NPPF taken as a whole”. He went on to conclude that the

Inspector “appears to have confused policy off ‘housing needs’ with policy on

housing requirement targets17” (HCJ Paragraph 81).

13.37 The Judgment noted that Hunston emphasised the difference between full

objectively assessed housing need and any policy-on, housing requirement

figure fixed by the Local Plan. The distinction between these is set out in

Paragraph 91 of the HCJ:

17

In Paragraph 37, the Judge defines an Objective Assessment of Need for Housing as specifically “leaving aside policy considerations”. The Judge noted that it is closely linked to the relevant household projection, but is not necessarily the same. In

the same paragraph, he defines housing requirements as “the figure which reflects, not only the assessed need for housing, but also any policy considerations that might require that figure to be manipulated to determine the actual housing target for an area”. Such considerations might include Green Belt or Areas of Outstanding Natural Beauty, or policy decisions to discourage

particular migration reflected in demographic trends. To this end, the housing requirement figure is defined as “a ‘policy on’ figure for housing requirement”.


10737655v5

“In the context of the first bullet point in paragraph 47, policy matters and other

constraining factors qualify, not the full objectively assessed housing needs,

but rather the extent to which the authority should meet those needs on the

basis of other NPPF policies that may, significantly and demonstrably,

outweigh the benefits of such housing provision. It confirms that, in plan-

making, full objectively assessed housing needs are not only a material

consideration, but a consideration of particular standing with a particular role to

play” (NLP emphasis).

13.38 In Paragraph 94 of the HCJ, Hickinbottom J recognises that Paragraph 47

requires a two-stage process comprising:

a Full housing needs to be objectively assessed; and then,

b A distinct assessment made as to whether (and, if so, to what extent)

other policies dictate or justify constraint.

13.39 He goes on to recognise that “the larger the need, the more pressure will or

might be applied to infringe on other inconsistent policies. The balancing

exercise required by paragraph 47 cannot be performed without being

informed by the actual full housing need”. The significance of this balancing

exercise is such that it could only be undertaken as part of the Local Plan

preparation process.

13.40 Because the second stage of this process can only be undertaken as part of

the Local Plan process, Paragraph 88 states:

“Where there is no Local Plan, then the housing requirement for a local

authority for the purposes of paragraph 47 is the full, objectively assessed

need”.

13.41 Paragraph 16 of the CAJ described the introduction of the two-step approach

contained within Paragraph 47 of the NPPF as constituting a “radical change”:

“The previous policy’s methodology was essentially the striking of a balance.

By contrast paragraph 47 required the OAN to be made first, and to be given

effect in the Local Plan save only to the extent that that would be inconsistent

with other NPPF policies. … The two-step approach is by no means barren or

technical. It means that housing need is clearly and cleanly ascertained”.


P80

13.42 Not only did the requirement for local planning authorities “to ensure that their

Local Plans meet the full, objectively assessed needs” (NPPF Paragraph 47,

cited in CAJ Paragraph 14) constitute a significant change in approach, when

compared to that contained within PPG3, but so too did “the requirement in

paragraph 47 to ‘boost’ housing supply ‘significantly’ … and the treatment of

soundness in NPPF paragraph 182” (CAJ Paragraph 14).

High Court Judgment: SatNam Millennium and Warrington Borough Council18 (February 2015)

13.43 At the heart of this case was the failure of Warrington Borough Council to

“provide an appropriate level of housing development in Warrington over the

plan period of 2007 – 2007” (Paragraph 5). Paragraph 12 summarises this

claim as follows:

“The Defendant and the Inspector misdirected themselves in law and policy, by

failing to meet the critical requirement that the Local Plan should identify and

address the full, objectively assessed needs for market and affordable

housing”.

Assessing FOAN across a Housing Market Area

13.44 In Paragraph 25 of the HCJ, Stewart J notes that “the authorities do not yet

deal with whether the OAN must be of the individual LPA or the HMA, if the

HMA crosses administrative boundaries”. However, it goes on to distil the

Statutory Framework and the NPPF as follows:

“(i) The LPA’s statutory duty is and must be in relation to their area. Thus the

primary duty of the LPA is to assess the needs of the LPA area.

“(ii) Para 47 of the NPPF requires the Local Plan to meet the full OAN in the

HMA.

“(iii) The LPA has to have the clear understanding of their area housing needs,

but in assessing these needs, is required to prepare an SHMA which may

cross boundaries.”

13.45 The implication of this is the requirement for a Local Authority to understand

the housing needs for its administrative area and the HMA as a whole. In this

18

SatNam Millennium v Warrington Borough Council (2015). EWHC 370.


10737655v5

case, the local authority area and HMA have been accepted by the Local Plan

Inspector as being analogous.

Affordable Housing

13.46 In respect of affordable housing, Stewart J concluded that there had not been

compliance with the requirements of Paragraph 47 and 159 of the NPPF. In

Paragraph 43 of the HCJ he clarified the approach that should be taken by

Local Planning Authorities in seeking to establish its affordable housing need,

as follows:

a The need for affordable housing should be identified;

b Having identified the FOAN for affordable housing, it should then be

considered in the context of its likely delivery, as a proportion of the total

mixed market/affordable housing development;

c An increase in the total housing figures included in the Local Plan should

be considered where it could help deliver the required number of

affordable homes; and,

d The Local Plan should then meet the FOAN for affordable housing,

subject only to the constraints referred to in paragraphs 14 and 47 of the

NPPF.

High Court Judgment: Oadby and Wigston19 (July 2015)

13.47 This case, which was brought by the Borough Council, relates to the decision

of a planning inspector to allow an appeal against the refusal of planning

permission for 150 dwellings. The basis of the Council’s case was that the

inspector erred in this assessment of the FOAN for housing. In dismissing the

case, Hickinbottom J supported the Inspector’s conclusion that the Strategic

Housing Market Assessment (SHMA) was policy-on because (amongst other

reasons) it applied specific policy choices in relation to the distribution of

housing throughout the HMA. Paragraphs 32 and 33 state:

19

Oadby and Wigston Borough Council v Secretary of State for Communities and Local Government and Bloor Homes Ltd

(2015). EWHC 1879.


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“In his decision letter, the Inspector clearly accepted Mr Taylor’s submission

that the housing requirement range of 80-100 dpa was policy on, substantially

for the reasons given by Mr Taylor. In particular, the Inspector considered that,

even if the SHMA figures were policy off for the HMA looked at as a whole,

they were policy on for the Council looked at individually – because the

distribution of the identified need across the HMA would be a policy on

decision, and there was no evidence that the apportionment had been agreed

or tested at a local plan examination” (paragraph 30 of his decision letter).

“Although the SHMA purports to be policy off, I agree with the Inspector’s

conclusion that it is policy on, for the reasons put forward by Mr Taylor.”

13.48 Hickinbottom J explained his view in paragraph 34 in relation to the

assessment of the housing need required to reflect anticipated economic

growth and affordable housing. He concluded that the local authority (through

its SHMA) had unlawfully adopted a policy-on approach by failing to reflect the

implications of employment growth within its assessment of housing need and

failing to satisfy the identified affordable housing requirement:

“i) For an authority to decide not to accommodate additional workers drawn to

its area by increased employment opportunities is clearly a policy on decision

which affects adjacent authorities who would be expected to house those

additional commuting workers, unless there was evidence (accepted by the

inspector or other planning decision-maker) that in fact the increase in

employment in the borough would not increase the overall accommodation

needs. In the absence of such evidence, or a development plan or any form of

agreement between the authorities to the effect that adjacent authorities agree

to increase their housing accommodation accordingly, the decision-maker is

entitled to allow for provision to house those additional workers. To decide not

to do so on the basis that they will be accommodated in adjacent authorities is

a policy on decision.

ii) … insofar as the Council relied upon adjacent authorities to provide

affordable accommodation, that is a policy on decision for the same reasons as

set out above. … it becomes policy on as soon as the Council takes a course

of not providing sufficient affordable housing to satisfy the FOAN for that type

of housing and allowing the private sector market to take up the shortfall. (NLP

emphasis)


10737655v5

High Court Judgment: Kings Lynn and West Norfolk20 (July 2015)

13.49 This case, which was brought by the Borough Council of King’s Lynn and West

Norfolk following the grant of planning permission at appeal for 40 dwellings,

centres around the key issues of what the correct FOAN should be and

whether it should include an allowance for a high level of vacancies/second

homes.

13.50 The Council argued that, in accepting Elm Park Holdings’ adjustments to the

FOAN for vacancies and second homes, the inspector had unlawfully adopted

a policy-on approach. However, Dove J concluded that the assessing of FOAN

requires analysis of statistical and econometric data and trends and that

judgments are to be made in respect of such data. He described the

Inspector’s judgment to take account of the existing extent of vacancy and

second homes and to project it forwards as “precisely the kind of statistical

judgement which is involved in determining the FOAN and the Inspector was

right to countenance it” (paragraph 39). He went on in paragraph 40 to state

that whilst “it will be open to the claimant to impose a policy in the second

stage to arrest or reverse the number of vacancies or affordable homes in

their planned housing stock and that could potentially lead to a reduction in

housing requirements … taking account of the existing extent of vacancy and

second homes and projecting it forwards is clearly part of the statistical

assessment of housing needs and part and parcel of the FOAN equation at

the first stage”.

13.51 By way of background to this conclusion, Dove J stated in paragraph 31 that

notwithstanding the reference by Sir David Keene in the Hunston CAJ to the

requirement figure “constraining” need, “when a housing figure passes through

the lens of policy it may increase as well as decrease … All these policies are

environmental or socio-economic in their nature and they are policies which

are not associated with the calculation of the FOAN.” (Paragraph 31).

13.52 In seeking to understand how to arrive at a FOAN, Dove J states that it is

important to consider paragraph 47 of the NPPF alongside paragraph 159,

20

Borough Council of Kings Lynn and West Norfolk v Secretary of State for Communities and Local Government and Elm Park

Holdings Ltd. (2015). EWHC 2464.


P84

such that FOAN is the product of the SHMA as required by paragraph 159 of

the NPPF. The SHMA must identify the scale and mix of housing to:

a Meet household and population projections, taking account of migration

and demographic change. Dove J describes this as “a statistical exercise

involving a range of relevant data for which there is no one set

methodology, but which will involve elements of judgment” (paragraph

b Address the need for all types of housing, including affordable housing.

13.53 In respect of (b), paragraph 35 states that:

“The Framework makes clear these needs should be addressed in

determining the FOAN, but neither the Framework nor the PPG suggest that

they have to be met in full when determining the FOAN. This is no doubt

because in practice very often the calculation of unmet affordable housing

need will produce a figure which the planning authority has little or no prospect

of delivering in practice.”

13.54 Referring to the PPG (ID 2a-208-20140306), Dove J states that:

“This consideration of an increase to help deliver the required number of

affordable homes, rather than an instruction that the requirement be met in

total, is consistent with the policy in paragraph 159 of the Framework requiring

that the SHMA "addresses" these needs in determining the FOAN. They

should have an important influence increasing the derived FOAN since they

are significant factors in providing for housing needs within an area”

(Paragraph 36; NLP emphasis).

13.55 He then goes further and explicitly contradicts the judgment of Hickinbottom J

at Oadby and Wigston judgement on the issue:

“Insofar as Hickinbottom J … might be taken in paragraph 34(ii) of his

judgment to be suggesting that in determining the FOAN, the total need for

affordable housing must be met in full by its inclusion in the FOAN I would

respectfully disagree. Such a suggestion is not warranted by the Framework or

the PPG for the reasons which I have just set out.” (Paragraph 37; NLP

emphasis).


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Appeal Decisions

Appeal Decision: Offenham, Worcestershire21 (February 2014)

13.56 The issue of whether the objectively assessed housing need should take

account of any constraints was further considered by the Inspector into an

appeal at Offenham, Worcestershire:

“The (Hunston) CAJ also stated that the time to move away from the full and

objectively assessed need to a more constrained figure was during the

production of the Local Plan. In view of the emerging SWDP and its

Examination, it would therefore be inappropriate for me to consider whether the

housing figure for Wychavon should be constrained in relation to this appeal”

(Paragraph 22).

13.57 This decision clearly states that in advance of the Local Plan being adopted, it

is not appropriate to take account of any constraints when assessing the

objectively assessed needs for housing.

Appeal Decision: Land at Pulley Lane, Newland Road and Primsland Way, Droitwich Spa22 (July 2014)

13.58 The Hunston judgement was considered further at two conjoined appeals for a

total of 765 dwellings at Droitwich Spa. This considered the approach that

should be taken in relation to the establishment of the “policy off” FOAN and

“policy on” housing requirements. Most importantly, it sets out the conclusion

that it is entirely proper for the FOAN to take account of factors such as

migration, economic trends, second homes and vacancies. This follows the

advice contained within the PPG:

21

Land between Leasowes Road and Laurels Road, Offenham, Worcestershire (PINS Ref No: APP/H1840/A/13/2203924 ) (7

February 2014). 22

Land at Pulley Lane, Newland Road and Primsland Way, Droitwich Spa (APP/H1840/A/13/2199085) and Land north of Pulley

Lane, Newland Road and Primsland Way, Droitwich Spa (PINS Ref No: APP/H1840/A/13/2199426) (2 July 2014).


P86

“In my view it is concerned with a proper understanding of how to determine

full objectively assessed need in circumstances where, as here, there is a

policy vacuum. It requires the identification of a “policy off” figure. Policy is the

“varnish” which the Court of Appeal refers to: the application of “varnish” is

what happens in the forward planning process but is an exercise which cannot

be assessed in the context of a s78 appeal. The Council’s case that

“unvarnished” means arriving at a figure which doesn’t take into account

migration or economic considerations is neither consistent with the judgment,

nor is it consistent with planning practice for deriving a figure for objectively

assessed need to which constraint policies are then applied. Plainly the

Council’s approach is incorrect. Clearly, where the judgement refers to

‘unvarnished’ figures (paragraph 29) it means environmental or other policy

constraints. There is nothing in the judgement which suggests that it is not

perfectly proper to take into account migration, economic considerations,

second homes and vacancies” (Paragraph 8.45; NLP emphasis).

Appeal Decision: Land South of Cirencester Road, Fairford (September 2014)23

13.59 Reflecting the position expressed by the Inspector (and confirmed by the

Secretary of State) in the Pulley Lane Inquiries, the Inspector at the Fairford

Inquiry recognised the role of economic factors in the assessment of the FOAN

for Cotswold District:

“The Council has not provided a figure for OAN which takes account of

employment trends. The Council argues that the advice in the PPG does not

require local planning authorities to increase their figure for OAN to reflect

employment considerations, but only to consider how the location of new

housing or infrastructure development could help address the problems arising

from such considerations. I disagree. In my view, the PPG requires

employment trends to be reflected in the OAN, as they are likely to affect the

need for housing. They are not “policy on” considerations but part of the

elements that go towards reaching a “policy off” OAN, before the application of

policy considerations. There is no evidence that the Council’s figures reflect

employment considerations” (Paragraph 19; NLP emphasis).

23

Land South of Cirencester Road, Fairford (PINS Ref No: APP/F1610/A/14/2213318) (22 September 2014).


10737655v5

Appeal Decision: Land off Sadberge Road, Middleton St George, Darlington (January 2015)24

13.60 Recognising that the housing requirement for Darlington in the adopted Core

Strategy was derived from the North East Regional Plan, which had since been

revoked, the Inspector noted that the Council did not make an assessment of

the Borough’s FOAN at the time that it prepared the Core Strategy and had not

done so since. In the absence of an objective assessment of housing

requirements, the Inspector concluded that the Council is “[unable to]

demonstrate a five year supply of deliverable housing sites, regardless of the

amount and quality of the data on the supply side”. (Paragraph 18).

13.61 In paragraph 19, the Inspector noted that the Council commissioned a

Strategic Housing Market Assessment in 2012 but that it did not “adjust the

household projections to allow for economic growth rates or assess the result

in the context of market signals”. Moreover, whilst the Core Strategy seeks to

facilitate economic growth, the local working age population is expected to

decline. The Inspector note that “in such circumstances, it is reasonable to

expect there to be net inward migration and for the additional households that

this would bring to Darlington, to require the provision of additional dwellings”

(paragraph 19). He went on to state in paragraph 20 that the Council “has a

responsibility to plan properly” for the future increase in inward migration

“particularly when it is clearly promoting a growth agenda”.

Appeal Decision: New Street, Weedon Bec, Northamptonshire (June 2015)25

13.62 In this case, the Inspector concluded that the Council had a 5 year housing

supply but that:

“the numbers in the JCS are not intended to be a maximum and the aim of

policy in NPPF 47 is to boost significantly the supply of housing. It follows that

just because the Council can meet its targets does not mean that more

housing should necessarily be refused. Rather the scheme would help the

Council achieve what it recognises to be a challenging trajectory”.

24

Land off Sadberge Road, Middleton St George, Darlington, County Durham (PINS Ref No: APP/N1350/A/14/2217552) (12

January 2015). 25

New Street, Weedon Bec, Northamptonshire (PINS Ref No: APP/Y2810/A/14/2228921) (12 June 2015).


P88

He went on to state that affordable housing “should be afforded substantial

weight regardless of HLS” (paragraph 57), such that this became a determining

factor in his decision to allow the appeal.


10737655v5

Appendix 3 PopGroup Output Sheets

Population Estimates and Forecasts Cornwall Scenario A: 2012-based SNPP/SNHP (Baseline)

Components of Population Change Cornwall

Year beginning July 1st …………..

2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30

Births

Male 2,776 2,949 2,839 2,904 2,934 2,975 2,996 3,003 3,025 3,039 3,049 3,054 3,058 3,063 3,065 3,067 3,068 3,071 3,075 3,079

Female 2,630 2,794 2,690 2,751 2,780 2,819 2,838 2,845 2,866 2,879 2,889 2,894 2,897 2,901 2,904 2,906 2,907 2,910 2,913 2,917

All Births 5,407 5,743 5,529 5,655 5,713 5,794 5,834 5,848 5,890 5,918 5,938 5,948 5,955 5,964 5,969 5,972 5,975 5,981 5,988 5,996

TFR 1.92 2.02 1.95 2.00 2.02 1.99 1.98 1.97 1.97 1.97 1.97 1.97 1.97 1.97 1.97 1.97 1.97 1.97 1.97 1.97

Births input

Deaths

Male 2,704 2,635 2,797 2,696 2,692 2,715 2,738 2,754 2,778 2,802 2,836 2,866 2,901 2,943 2,988 3,037 3,088 3,142 3,195 3,251

Female 3,007 2,911 3,048 2,876 2,858 2,834 2,849 2,851 2,859 2,863 2,871 2,892 2,914 2,939 2,970 3,006 3,051 3,098 3,150 3,201

All deaths 5,711 5,547 5,845 5,572 5,550 5,550 5,587 5,605 5,637 5,665 5,707 5,757 5,815 5,882 5,958 6,043 6,139 6,240 6,345 6,451

SMR: males 103.2 98.3 101.5 95.2 92.5 90.2 88.2 86.0 84.0 82.1 80.4 78.7 77.1 75.7 74.5 73.3 72.2 71.2 70.2 69.3

SMR: females 105.0 100.0 103.2 96.8 94.6 91.0 89.5 87.7 86.0 84.1 82.2 80.7 79.1 77.7 76.3 75.0 73.8 72.7 71.6 70.6

SMR: persons 104.1 99.2 102.4 96.0 93.6 90.6 88.9 86.9 85.0 83.1 81.3 79.7 78.1 76.7 75.4 74.1 73.0 71.9 70.9 69.9

Expectation of life: males 79.1 79.7 79.4 80.1 80.4 80.7 81.0 81.3 81.6 81.8 82.1 82.4 82.6 82.8 83.0 83.2 83.4 83.6 83.8 84.0

Expectation of life: females 82.9 83.4 83.1 83.7 84.0 84.3 84.5 84.7 84.9 85.1 85.4 85.5 85.7 85.9 86.1 86.3 86.5 86.6 86.8 87.0

Expectation of life: persons 81.1 81.6 81.3 82.0 82.3 82.7 82.9 83.1 83.3 83.6 83.8 84.0 84.3 84.5 84.6 84.8 85.0 85.2 85.4 85.6

Deaths input

In-migration from the UK

Male 10,085 9,914 10,253 10,292 10,351 10,410 10,454 10,492 10,522 10,542 10,559 10,581 10,614 10,651 10,702 10,765 10,828 10,890 10,951 11,018

Female 10,733 10,532 10,989 10,998 11,035 11,085 11,106 11,121 11,131 11,127 11,123 11,126 11,142 11,169 11,221 11,287 11,360 11,423 11,490 11,559

All 20,818 20,446 21,243 21,290 21,387 21,494 21,560 21,613 21,654 21,669 21,682 21,707 21,756 21,819 21,923 22,052 22,187 22,313 22,441 22,577

SMigR: males 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3

SMigR: females 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3

Migrants input * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *

Out-migration to the UK

Male 7,984 7,823 8,138 8,225 8,319 8,388 8,439 8,488 8,512 8,528 8,525 8,540 8,559 8,582 8,631 8,693 8,744 8,812 8,880 8,973

Female 8,497 8,391 8,736 8,802 8,889 8,959 8,985 8,998 9,009 8,989 8,970 8,962 8,977 9,005 9,054 9,113 9,177 9,247 9,330 9,421

All 16,481 16,214 16,875 17,028 17,208 17,346 17,424 17,486 17,521 17,517 17,495 17,502 17,536 17,587 17,685 17,806 17,921 18,059 18,210 18,395

SMigR: males 32.4 31.4 32.4 32.5 32.7 32.4 32.3 32.3 32.2 32.1 32.0 31.9 31.8 31.8 31.8 31.8 31.8 31.8 31.8 31.9

SMigR: females 33.2 32.3 33.5 33.7 33.8 33.6 33.5 33.3 33.3 33.1 33.0 32.9 32.8 32.8 32.8 32.8 32.8 32.7 32.7 32.8

Migrants input * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *

In-migration from Overseas

Male 1,244 1,367 1,333 1,283 2,081 1,137 1,101 1,108 1,086 1,086 1,091 1,092 1,092 1,096 1,097 1,099 1,103 1,104 1,104 1,104

Female 1,431 1,456 1,138 1,263 2,058 959 930 933 910 908 907 904 904 906 904 902 905 908 909 911

All 2,676 2,822 2,471 2,545 4,140 2,096 2,031 2,041 1,996 1,994 1,997 1,996 1,996 2,002 2,001 2,001 2,008 2,012 2,012 2,015

Migrants input * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *

Out-migration to Overseas

Male 1,543 1,562 1,448 1,602 1,490 1,039 1,036 1,035 1,036 1,036 1,038 1,039 1,039 1,043 1,043 1,046 1,050 1,052 1,052 1,053

Female 1,200 1,535 1,669 1,273 1,268 838 834 831 827 824 823 820 820 822 820 818 820 824 824 827

All 2,743 3,097 3,117 2,875 2,758 1,877 1,870 1,867 1,863 1,860 1,861 1,859 1,859 1,865 1,863 1,864 1,870 1,876 1,877 1,880

SMigR: males 114.6 114.8 106.1 116.9 108.6 74.1 73.3 72.8 72.4 72.1 72.1 72.0 71.9 72.1 72.0 71.9 72.0 71.7 71.3 71.0

SMigR: females 111.3 140.5 152.3 116.1 115.6 74.7 73.8 73.2 72.5 72.2 72.1 71.8 71.9 72.2 71.9 71.7 71.7 71.7 71.4 71.3

Migrants input * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *

Migration - Net Flows

UK +4,337 +4,232 +4,368 +4,263 +4,179 +4,148 +4,136 +4,127 +4,133 +4,152 +4,186 +4,205 +4,220 +4,232 +4,238 +4,246 +4,266 +4,254 +4,231 +4,182 +84,334 +4,217

Overseas -67 -274 -646 -330 +1,381 +219 +161 +175 +133 +134 +136 +137 +138 +138 +138 +137 +138 +136 +136 +135 +2,253 +113

Summary of population change

Natural change -304 +196 -316 +83 +164 +244 +247 +243 +254 +253 +231 +191 +140 +82 +11 -71 -163 -259 -357 -455 +414 +21

Net migration +4,270 +3,958 +3,721 +3,933 +5,560 +4,367 +4,297 +4,302 +4,266 +4,286 +4,322 +4,342 +4,358 +4,370 +4,376 +4,383 +4,404 +4,390 +4,366 +4,317 +173,589 +8,679

Net change +3,966 +4,154 +3,405 +4,016 +5,724 +4,611 +4,544 +4,545 +4,519 +4,539 +4,553 +4,533 +4,498 +4,452 +4,387 +4,312 +4,241 +4,131 +4,010 +3,862 +87,206 +4,360

Crude Birth Rate /000 10.17 10.72 10.25 10.41 10.42 10.47 10.46 10.40 10.39 10.35 10.31 10.24 10.18 10.11 10.05 9.98 9.91 9.86 9.80 9.75

Crude Death Rate /000 10.74 10.35 10.83 10.25 10.12 10.03 10.01 9.96 9.94 9.91 9.91 9.92 9.94 9.98 10.03 10.10 10.19 10.28 10.39 10.49

Crude Net Migration Rate /000 8.03 7.39 6.90 7.24 10.14 7.89 7.70 7.65 7.52 7.50 7.50 7.48 7.45 7.41 7.37 7.32 7.31 7.23 7.15 7.02

Summary of Population estimates/forecasts

Population at mid-year

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030

0-4 27,010 27,565 28,255 28,860 29,156 29,534 29,698 29,755 30,060 30,277 30,462 30,593 30,695 30,787 30,847 30,886 30,911 30,928 30,943 30,958 30,977 3,967 198

5-10 31,730 31,683 32,429 33,140 34,126 34,800 35,843 36,676 37,083 37,633 38,088 38,560 38,734 38,783 39,105 39,326 39,506 39,625 39,713 39,790 39,832 8,102 405

11-15 31,002 30,727 30,116 29,292 28,744 28,099 27,942 28,367 29,203 29,956 30,721 31,439 32,144 32,789 33,196 33,595 33,987 34,121 34,150 34,427 34,616 3,614 181

16-17 12,940 12,641 12,735 12,926 12,846 12,574 12,309 11,880 11,433 11,283 11,483 11,731 12,175 12,718 12,920 13,051 13,226 13,605 14,057 13,956 13,841 901 45

18-59Female, 64Male 291,774 292,821 292,071 291,672 291,798 294,505 295,582 296,437 296,965 297,231 297,362 297,436 297,353 297,236 297,185 297,411 297,302 297,428 297,504 297,731 298,215 6,441 322

60/65 -74 82,244 84,421 87,494 89,922 92,074 93,370 95,030 96,222 96,857 96,959 96,997 97,002 95,556 95,264 95,702 96,482 97,912 99,443 100,970 102,647 104,322 22,078 1,104

75-84 37,545 37,981 38,590 39,079 39,784 40,581 41,102 42,108 43,813 46,104 48,104 50,237 54,008 56,671 58,833 60,550 62,016 62,841 63,252 63,248 63,051 25,506 1,275

85+ 15,549 15,921 16,224 16,428 16,807 17,595 18,163 18,769 19,344 19,835 20,601 21,374 22,238 23,152 24,064 24,939 25,694 26,802 28,335 30,177 31,942 16,393 820

Total 529,794 533,760 537,914 541,319 545,335 551,059 555,670 560,214 564,759 569,278 573,817 578,370 582,903 587,401 591,853 596,240 600,552 604,793 608,924 612,934 616,796 87,002 4,350

Dependency ratios, mean age and sex ratio

0-15 / 16-65 0.27 0.27 0.28 0.28 0.28 0.28 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.31

65+ / 16-65 0.35 0.36 0.37 0.39 0.40 0.41 0.41 0.42 0.43 0.44 0.44 0.45 0.46 0.46 0.47 0.48 0.49 0.50 0.51 0.52 0.53

0-15 and 65+ / 16-65 0.62 0.63 0.65 0.67 0.68 0.69 0.70 0.71 0.72 0.73 0.74 0.75 0.76 0.77 0.78 0.79 0.80 0.81 0.82 0.83 0.84

Median age males 43.1 43.2 43.5 43.8 44.0 44.0 44.2 44.3 44.4 44.5 44.5 44.4 44.4 44.3 44.3 44.4 44.5 44.5 44.5 44.5 44.5

Median age females 45.2 45.4 45.7 45.9 46.2 46.3 46.6 46.8 47.0 47.3 47.5 47.7 47.8 47.9 48.0 48.0 48.0 48.0 48.0 48.1 48.2

Sex ratio males /100 females 94.0 93.9 94.1 94.3 94.3 94.4 94.5 94.6 94.7 94.7 94.8 94.8 94.9 94.9 95.0 95.0 95.1 95.1 95.1 95.2 95.2

Households

Number of Households 229,669 231,079 233,103 234,974 236,977 239,720 242,149 244,550 246,933 249,320 251,631 253,993 256,286 258,540 260,825 263,049 265,350 267,629 269,806 271,955 274,017 44,348 2,217

Change in Households

over previous year +1,410 +2,024 +1,871 +2,004 +2,743 +2,429 +2,401 +2,383 +2,386 +2,311 +2,362 +2,292 +2,254 +2,286 +2,224 +2,301 +2,279 +2,177 +2,149 +2,062

Number of Dwellings 252,134 253,682 255,904 257,958 260,157 263,169 265,835 268,471 271,087 273,707 276,244 278,838 281,354 283,829 286,338 288,779 291,305 293,807 296,197 298,556 300,820 48,686 2,434

Change in Dwellings over

previous year +1,548 +2,222 +2,054 +2,200 +3,011 +2,666 +2,636 +2,616 +2,620 +2,538 +2,593 +2,517 +2,474 +2,509 +2,441 +2,526 +2,502 +2,390 +2,359 +2,264

Labour Force

Number of Labour Force 268,242 257,300 250,500 259,900 260,981 263,794 265,460 266,647 267,789 269,389 271,021 271,640 271,909 272,160 272,432 272,859 273,369 274,317 275,199 275,702 276,365 8,123 406

Change in Labour Force

over previous year +1,230 -6,800 +9,400 +1,081 +2,813 +1,666 +1,187 +1,141 +1,601 +1,632 +619 +269 +251 +272 +427 +509 +948 +882 +503 +663

Number of Jobs 205,500 206,000 204,600 206,300 208,253 210,497 211,827 212,829 213,795 215,128 216,486 217,036 217,307 217,563 217,836 218,233 218,696 219,510 220,273 220,732 221,364 15,864 793

Change in Jobs over

previous year +3,371 -1,400 +1,700 +1,953 +2,244 +1,330 +1,002 +966 +1,333 +1,359 +550 +271 +256 +273 +397 +463 +814 +762 +459 +632

This report was compiled from a forecast produced on 15/10/2015 using POPGROUP software developed by Bradford Council, the University of Manchester and Andelin Associates

Population Estimates and Forecasts Cornwall Scenario Ai: Partial Catch-up Sensitivity Test for 2012-based SNPP/SNHP



2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30

Births

Male 2,776 2,949 2,839 2,904 2,934 2,975 2,996 3,003 3,025 3,039 3,049 3,054 3,058 3,063 3,065 3,067 3,068 3,071 3,075 3,079

Female 2,630 2,794 2,690 2,751 2,780 2,819 2,838 2,845 2,866 2,879 2,889 2,894 2,897 2,901 2,904 2,906 2,907 2,910 2,913 2,917

All Births 5,407 5,743 5,529 5,655 5,713 5,794 5,834 5,848 5,890 5,918 5,938 5,948 5,955 5,964 5,969 5,972 5,975 5,981 5,988 5,996

TFR 1.92 2.02 1.95 2.00 2.02 1.99 1.98 1.97 1.97 1.97 1.97 1.97 1.97 1.97 1.97 1.97 1.97 1.97 1.97 1.97

Births input

Deaths

Male 2,704 2,635 2,797 2,696 2,692 2,715 2,738 2,754 2,778 2,802 2,836 2,866 2,901 2,943 2,988 3,037 3,088 3,142 3,195 3,251

Female 3,007 2,911 3,048 2,876 2,858 2,834 2,849 2,851 2,859 2,863 2,871 2,892 2,914 2,939 2,970 3,006 3,051 3,098 3,150 3,201

All deaths 5,711 5,547 5,845 5,572 5,550 5,550 5,587 5,605 5,637 5,665 5,707 5,757 5,815 5,882 5,958 6,043 6,139 6,240 6,345 6,451

SMR: males 103.2 98.3 101.5 95.2 92.5 90.2 88.2 86.0 84.0 82.1 80.4 78.7 77.1 75.7 74.5 73.3 72.2 71.2 70.2 69.3

SMR: females 105.0 100.0 103.2 96.8 94.6 91.0 89.5 87.7 86.0 84.1 82.2 80.7 79.1 77.7 76.3 75.0 73.8 72.7 71.6 70.6

SMR: persons 104.1 99.2 102.4 96.0 93.6 90.6 88.9 86.9 85.0 83.1 81.3 79.7 78.1 76.7 75.4 74.1 73.0 71.9 70.9 69.9




Deaths input


Male 10,085 9,914 10,253 10,292 10,351 10,410 10,454 10,492 10,522 10,542 10,559 10,581 10,614 10,651 10,702 10,765 10,828 10,890 10,951 11,018

Female 10,733 10,532 10,989 10,998 11,035 11,085 11,106 11,121 11,131 11,127 11,123 11,126 11,142 11,169 11,221 11,287 11,360 11,423 11,490 11,559

All 20,818 20,446 21,243 21,290 21,387 21,494 21,560 21,613 21,654 21,669 21,682 21,707 21,756 21,819 21,923 22,052 22,187 22,313 22,441 22,577

SMigR: males 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3

SMigR: females 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3

Migrants input * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *


Male 7,984 7,823 8,138 8,225 8,319 8,388 8,439 8,488 8,512 8,528 8,525 8,540 8,559 8,582 8,631 8,693 8,744 8,812 8,880 8,973

Female 8,497 8,391 8,736 8,802 8,889 8,959 8,985 8,998 9,009 8,989 8,970 8,962 8,977 9,005 9,054 9,113 9,177 9,247 9,330 9,421

All 16,481 16,214 16,875 17,028 17,208 17,346 17,424 17,486 17,521 17,517 17,495 17,502 17,536 17,587 17,685 17,806 17,921 18,059 18,210 18,395

SMigR: males 32.4 31.4 32.4 32.5 32.7 32.4 32.3 32.3 32.2 32.1 32.0 31.9 31.8 31.8 31.8 31.8 31.8 31.8 31.8 31.9

SMigR: females 33.2 32.3 33.5 33.7 33.8 33.6 33.5 33.3 33.3 33.1 33.0 32.9 32.8 32.8 32.8 32.8 32.8 32.7 32.7 32.8

Migrants input * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *


Male 1,244 1,367 1,333 1,283 2,081 1,137 1,101 1,108 1,086 1,086 1,091 1,092 1,092 1,096 1,097 1,099 1,103 1,104 1,104 1,104

Female 1,431 1,456 1,138 1,263 2,058 959 930 933 910 908 907 904 904 906 904 902 905 908 909 911

All 2,676 2,822 2,471 2,545 4,140 2,096 2,031 2,041 1,996 1,994 1,997 1,996 1,996 2,002 2,001 2,001 2,008 2,012 2,012 2,015

Migrants input * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *


Male 1,543 1,562 1,448 1,602 1,490 1,039 1,036 1,035 1,036 1,036 1,038 1,039 1,039 1,043 1,043 1,046 1,050 1,052 1,052 1,053

Female 1,200 1,535 1,669 1,273 1,268 838 834 831 827 824 823 820 820 822 820 818 820 824 824 827

All 2,743 3,097 3,117 2,875 2,758 1,877 1,870 1,867 1,863 1,860 1,861 1,859 1,859 1,865 1,863 1,864 1,870 1,876 1,877 1,880

SMigR: males 114.6 114.8 106.1 116.9 108.6 74.1 73.3 72.8 72.4 72.1 72.1 72.0 71.9 72.1 72.0 71.9 72.0 71.7 71.3 71.0

SMigR: females 111.3 140.5 152.3 116.1 115.6 74.7 73.8 73.2 72.5 72.2 72.1 71.8 71.9 72.2 71.9 71.7 71.7 71.7 71.4 71.3

Migrants input * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *


UK +4,337 +4,232 +4,368 +4,263 +4,179 +4,148 +4,136 +4,127 +4,133 +4,152 +4,186 +4,205 +4,220 +4,232 +4,238 +4,246 +4,266 +4,254 +4,231 +4,182 +84,334 +4,217

Overseas -67 -274 -646 -330 +1,381 +219 +161 +175 +133 +134 +136 +137 +138 +138 +138 +137 +138 +136 +136 +135 +2,253 +113


Natural change -304 +196 -316 +83 +164 +244 +247 +243 +254 +253 +231 +191 +140 +82 +11 -71 -163 -259 -357 -455 +414 +21

Net migration +4,270 +3,958 +3,721 +3,933 +5,560 +4,367 +4,297 +4,302 +4,266 +4,286 +4,322 +4,342 +4,358 +4,370 +4,376 +4,383 +4,404 +4,390 +4,366 +4,317 +86,587 +4,329

Net change +3,966 +4,154 +3,405 +4,016 +5,724 +4,611 +4,544 +4,545 +4,519 +4,539 +4,553 +4,533 +4,498 +4,452 +4,387 +4,312 +4,241 +4,131 +4,010 +3,862 +87,002 +4,350

Crude Birth Rate /000 10.17 10.72 10.25 10.41 10.42 10.47 10.46 10.40 10.39 10.35 10.31 10.24 10.18 10.11 10.05 9.98 9.91 9.86 9.80 9.75

Crude Death Rate /000 10.74 10.35 10.83 10.25 10.12 10.03 10.01 9.96 9.94 9.91 9.91 9.92 9.94 9.98 10.03 10.10 10.19 10.28 10.39 10.49




2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030

0-4 27,010 27,565 28,255 28,860 29,156 29,534 29,698 29,755 30,060 30,277 30,462 30,593 30,695 30,787 30,847 30,886 30,911 30,928 30,943 30,958 30,977 3,967 198

5-10 31,730 31,683 32,429 33,140 34,126 34,800 35,843 36,676 37,083 37,633 38,088 38,560 38,734 38,783 39,105 39,326 39,506 39,625 39,713 39,790 39,832 8,102 405

11-15 31,002 30,727 30,116 29,292 28,744 28,099 27,942 28,367 29,203 29,956 30,721 31,439 32,144 32,789 33,196 33,595 33,987 34,121 34,150 34,427 34,616 3,614 181

16-17 12,940 12,641 12,735 12,926 12,846 12,574 12,309 11,880 11,433 11,283 11,483 11,731 12,175 12,718 12,920 13,051 13,226 13,605 14,057 13,956 13,841 901 45

18-59Female, 64Male 291,774 292,821 292,071 291,672 291,798 294,505 295,582 296,437 296,965 297,231 297,362 297,436 297,353 297,236 297,185 297,411 297,302 297,428 297,504 297,731 298,215 6,441 322

60/65 -74 82,244 84,421 87,494 89,922 92,074 93,370 95,030 96,222 96,857 96,959 96,997 97,002 95,556 95,264 95,702 96,482 97,912 99,443 100,970 102,647 104,322 22,078 1,104

75-84 37,545 37,981 38,590 39,079 39,784 40,581 41,102 42,108 43,813 46,104 48,104 50,237 54,008 56,671 58,833 60,550 62,016 62,841 63,252 63,248 63,051 25,506 1,275

85+ 15,549 15,921 16,224 16,428 16,807 17,595 18,163 18,769 19,344 19,835 20,601 21,374 22,238 23,152 24,064 24,939 25,694 26,802 28,335 30,177 31,942 16,393 820

Total 529,794 533,760 537,914 541,319 545,335 551,059 555,670 560,214 564,759 569,278 573,817 578,370 582,903 587,401 591,853 596,240 600,552 604,793 608,924 612,934 616,796 87,002 4,350


0-15 / 16-65 0.27 0.27 0.28 0.28 0.28 0.28 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.31

65+ / 16-65 0.35 0.36 0.37 0.39 0.40 0.41 0.41 0.42 0.43 0.44 0.44 0.45 0.46 0.46 0.47 0.48 0.49 0.50 0.51 0.52 0.53

0-15 and 65+ / 16-65 0.62 0.63 0.65 0.67 0.68 0.69 0.70 0.71 0.72 0.73 0.74 0.75 0.76 0.77 0.78 0.79 0.80 0.81 0.82 0.83 0.84

Median age males 43.1 43.2 43.5 43.8 44.0 44.0 44.2 44.3 44.4 44.5 44.5 44.4 44.4 44.3 44.3 44.4 44.5 44.5 44.5 44.5 44.5



Households


Change in Households over

previous year +1,410 +2,024 +1,871 +2,004 +2,743 +2,429 +2,401 +2,527 +2,538 +2,462 +2,514 +2,455 +2,421 +2,460 +2,381 +2,453 +2,426 +2,327 +2,301 +2,220



previous year +1,548 +2,222 +2,054 +2,200 +3,011 +2,666 +2,636 +2,774 +2,787 +2,702 +2,760 +2,696 +2,658 +2,701 +2,614 +2,693 +2,663 +2,555 +2,526 +2,438

Labour Force


Change in Labour Force over

previous year -10,942 -6,800 +9,400 +1,081 +2,813 +1,666 +1,187 +1,141 +1,601 +1,632 +619 +269 +251 +272 +427 +509 +948 +882 +503 +663

Number of Jobs 205,500 206,000 204,600 206,300 208,253 210,497 211,827 212,829 213,795 215,128 216,486 217,036 217,307 217,563 217,836 218,233 218,696 219,510 220,273 220,732 221,364 15,864 793

Change in Jobs over previous

year +500 -1,400 +1,700 +1,953 +2,244 +1,330 +1,002 +966 +1,333 +1,359 +550 +271 +256 +273 +397 +463 +814 +762 +459 +632


Population Estimates and Forecasts Cornwall Scenario B: Long Term Migration Trends



2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30

Births

Male 2,776 2,949 2,859 2,925 2,957 2,988 3,053 3,102 3,165 3,219 3,266 3,306 3,341 3,374 3,403 3,428 3,451 3,472 3,492 3,512

Female 2,630 2,794 2,708 2,772 2,802 2,831 2,892 2,939 2,999 3,050 3,094 3,132 3,165 3,197 3,224 3,248 3,269 3,289 3,308 3,327

All Births 5,407 5,743 5,567 5,697 5,759 5,819 5,945 6,041 6,164 6,269 6,360 6,437 6,507 6,571 6,627 6,677 6,720 6,761 6,801 6,839

TFR 1.92 2.02 1.95 2.00 2.02 1.99 1.98 1.97 1.97 1.97 1.97 1.97 1.97 1.97 1.97 1.97 1.97 1.97 1.97 1.97

Births input

Deaths

Male 2,704 2,635 2,797 2,696 2,692 2,683 2,686 2,685 2,695 2,707 2,728 2,747 2,771 2,803 2,838 2,877 2,918 2,962 3,005 3,051

Female 3,007 2,911 3,048 2,876 2,858 2,779 2,777 2,765 2,762 2,756 2,756 2,768 2,783 2,801 2,823 2,853 2,889 2,928 2,970 3,011

All deaths 5,711 5,547 5,845 5,572 5,550 5,463 5,463 5,450 5,457 5,463 5,484 5,515 5,555 5,603 5,661 5,730 5,807 5,889 5,975 6,063

SMR: males 103.2 98.3 101.5 95.2 92.5 90.2 88.2 86.0 84.0 82.1 80.4 78.7 77.1 75.7 74.5 73.3 72.2 71.2 70.2 69.3

SMR: females 105.0 100.0 103.2 96.8 94.6 91.0 89.5 87.7 86.0 84.1 82.2 80.7 79.1 77.7 76.3 75.0 73.8 72.7 71.6 70.6

SMR: persons 104.1 99.2 102.4 96.0 93.6 90.6 88.9 86.9 85.0 83.1 81.3 79.7 78.1 76.7 75.4 74.1 73.0 71.9 70.9 69.9




Deaths input


Male 10,085 9,914 10,186 10,200 10,216 10,232 10,247 10,262 10,274 10,286 10,300 10,312 10,322 10,329 10,334 10,335 10,335 10,334 10,332 10,332

Female 10,733 10,532 10,782 10,768 10,752 10,736 10,721 10,706 10,694 10,682 10,668 10,656 10,646 10,639 10,634 10,633 10,633 10,634 10,636 10,636

All 20,818 20,446 20,968 20,968 20,968 20,968 20,968 20,968 20,968 20,968 20,968 20,968 20,968 20,968 20,968 20,968 20,968 20,968 20,968 20,968

SMigR: males 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3

SMigR: females 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3

Migrants input * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *


Male 7,984 7,823 8,074 8,099 8,101 8,092 8,098 8,108 8,116 8,137 8,146 8,158 8,164 8,170 8,171 8,176 8,170 8,171 8,171 8,174

Female 8,497 8,391 8,626 8,601 8,599 8,608 8,602 8,592 8,584 8,563 8,554 8,542 8,536 8,530 8,529 8,524 8,530 8,529 8,529 8,526

All 16,481 16,214 16,700 16,700 16,700 16,700 16,700 16,700 16,700 16,700 16,700 16,700 16,700 16,700 16,700 16,700 16,700 16,700 16,700 16,700

SMigR: males 32.4 31.4 32.2 32.0 31.9 31.3 30.9 30.5 30.2 29.9 29.7 29.5 29.3 29.0 28.8 28.5 28.2 27.9 27.6 27.3

SMigR: females 33.2 32.3 33.1 32.9 32.7 32.3 31.8 31.5 31.2 30.9 30.6 30.4 30.2 29.9 29.6 29.3 29.0 28.7 28.4 28.1

Migrants input * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *


Male 1,244 1,367 1,614 1,605 1,173 1,173 1,173 1,173 1,173 1,173 1,173 1,173 1,173 1,173 1,173 1,173 1,173 1,173 1,173 1,173

Female 1,431 1,456 1,440 1,735 968 968 968 968 968 968 968 968 968 968 968 968 968 968 968 968

All 2,676 2,822 3,055 3,340 2,141 2,141 2,141 2,141 2,141 2,141 2,141 2,141 2,141 2,141 2,141 2,141 2,141 2,141 2,141 2,141

Migrants input * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *


Male 1,543 1,562 1,746 1,980 1,040 1,039 1,038 1,037 1,037 1,037 1,038 1,038 1,039 1,040 1,041 1,042 1,042 1,043 1,044 1,044

Female 1,200 1,535 1,893 1,738 828 829 830 831 831 831 830 830 829 828 827 826 826 825 824 824

All 2,743 3,097 3,639 3,717 1,868 1,868 1,868 1,868 1,868 1,868 1,868 1,868 1,868 1,868 1,868 1,868 1,868 1,868 1,868 1,868

SMigR: males 114.6 114.8 128.0 144.5 75.8 74.2 72.9 71.7 70.7 69.9 69.3 68.7 68.3 67.9 67.5 67.1 66.6 66.1 65.5 64.9

SMigR: females 111.3 140.5 172.7 158.4 75.5 74.1 72.9 71.8 70.9 70.2 69.6 69.1 68.7 68.3 67.9 67.5 67.0 66.4 65.8 65.2

Migrants input * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *


UK +4,337 +4,232 +4,268 +4,268 +4,268 +4,268 +4,268 +4,268 +4,268 +4,268 +4,268 +4,268 +4,268 +4,268 +4,268 +4,268 +4,268 +4,268 +4,268 +4,268 +85,393 +4,270

Overseas -67 -274 -585 -377 +273 +273 +273 +273 +273 +273 +273 +273 +273 +273 +273 +273 +273 +273 +273 +273 +3,064 +153


Natural change -304 +196 -278 +125 +209 +357 +482 +591 +707 +806 +876 +922 +952 +968 +966 +947 +913 +872 +826 +777

Net migration +4,270 +3,958 +3,683 +3,891 +4,541 +4,541 +4,541 +4,541 +4,541 +4,541 +4,541 +4,541 +4,541 +4,541 +4,541 +4,541 +4,541 +4,541 +4,541 +4,541 +88,457 +4,423

Net change +3,966 +4,154 +3,405 +4,016 +4,750 +4,898 +5,023 +5,132 +5,248 +5,347 +5,417 +5,463 +5,493 +5,509 +5,507 +5,488 +5,454 +5,413 +5,367 +5,318 +100,366 +5,018

Crude Birth Rate /000 10.17 10.72 10.32 10.49 10.51 10.53 10.66 10.74 10.86 10.94 10.99 11.02 11.04 11.05 11.04 11.02 10.99 10.96 10.93 10.90

Crude Death Rate /000 10.74 10.35 10.83 10.25 10.13 9.89 9.80 9.69 9.61 9.53 9.48 9.45 9.42 9.42 9.43 9.46 9.50 9.55 9.60 9.66




2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030

0-4 27,010 27,565 28,255 28,860 29,156 29,664 29,861 30,118 30,505 31,189 31,683 32,193 32,654 33,084 33,460 33,790 34,081 34,337 34,567 34,777 34,974 7,964 398

5-10 31,730 31,683 32,429 33,140 34,126 34,885 35,958 36,787 37,359 37,869 38,458 39,025 39,346 39,672 40,160 40,882 41,415 41,943 42,414 42,851 43,229 11,499 575

11-15 31,002 30,727 30,116 29,292 28,744 28,266 28,074 28,409 29,186 29,860 30,585 31,311 32,080 32,704 33,358 33,676 34,166 34,368 34,595 34,967 35,566 4,564 228

16-17 12,940 12,641 12,735 12,926 12,846 12,550 12,264 11,872 11,470 11,259 11,418 11,667 12,076 12,621 12,762 12,871 13,136 13,570 13,997 14,018 13,826 886 44

18-59Female, 64Male 291,774 292,821 292,071 291,672 291,798 294,070 296,157 298,058 299,693 301,138 302,469 303,734 304,859 305,978 307,154 308,664 309,773 311,150 312,569 314,214 316,135 24,361 1,218

60/65 -74 82,244 84,421 87,494 89,922 92,074 93,153 94,316 94,998 95,046 94,620 94,153 93,578 91,578 90,751 90,649 90,927 91,829 92,896 93,985 95,203 96,449 14,205 710

75-84 37,545 37,981 38,590 39,079 39,784 40,423 40,886 41,868 43,554 45,754 47,589 49,586 53,196 55,664 57,614 59,060 60,279 60,841 60,938 60,679 60,227 22,682 1,134

85+ 15,549 15,921 16,224 16,428 16,807 17,074 17,466 17,895 18,324 18,697 19,378 20,054 20,823 21,630 22,457 23,252 23,929 24,958 26,411 28,134 29,754 14,205 710

Total 529,794 533,760 537,914 541,319 545,335 550,085 554,982 560,005 565,137 570,385 575,732 581,149 586,612 592,105 597,614 603,121 608,609 614,063 619,475 624,842 630,160 100,366 5,018


0-15 / 16-65 0.27 0.27 0.28 0.28 0.28 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.30 0.30 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.32

65+ / 16-65 0.35 0.36 0.37 0.39 0.40 0.40 0.41 0.41 0.42 0.42 0.42 0.43 0.43 0.44 0.44 0.44 0.45 0.45 0.46 0.46 0.47

0-15 and 65+ / 16-65 0.62 0.63 0.65 0.67 0.68 0.69 0.70 0.70 0.71 0.72 0.73 0.73 0.74 0.75 0.75 0.76 0.77 0.77 0.78 0.79 0.79

Median age males 43.1 43.2 43.5 43.8 44.0 44.0 43.9 43.8 43.7 43.5 43.2 42.9 42.7 42.5 42.4 42.3 42.1 42.0 41.9 41.8 41.7



Households



previous year +1,410 +2,024 +1,871 +2,004 +1,991 +2,210 +2,307 +2,343 +2,410 +2,362 +2,429 +2,397 +2,369 +2,414 +2,376 +2,464 +2,453 +2,354 +2,361 +2,321



previous year +1,548 +2,222 +2,054 +2,200 +2,186 +2,426 +2,532 +2,572 +2,646 +2,593 +2,666 +2,631 +2,601 +2,650 +2,608 +2,705 +2,693 +2,585 +2,592 +2,548

Labour Force

Number of Labour Force 268,242 257,300 250,500 259,900 260,981 263,331 265,751 267,711 269,635 272,040 274,499 275,978 277,123 278,234 279,408 280,785 282,264 284,141 286,041 287,550 289,355 21,113 1,056


previous year +1,230 -6,800 +9,400 +1,081 +2,350 +2,420 +1,960 +1,923 +2,405 +2,459 +1,479 +1,146 +1,111 +1,174 +1,377 +1,479 +1,877 +1,900 +1,508 +1,805

Number of Jobs 205,500 206,000 204,600 206,300 208,253 210,128 212,060 213,678 215,268 217,244 219,264 220,501 221,474 222,418 223,413 224,572 225,812 227,372 228,951 230,217 231,768 26,268 1,313


year +3,371 -1,400 +1,700 +1,953 +1,875 +1,931 +1,618 +1,590 +1,976 +2,020 +1,238 +972 +945 +995 +1,158 +1,240 +1,560 +1,579 +1,266 +1,551


Population Estimates and Forecasts Cornwall Scenario Bi: Partial Catch-up Sensitivity Test for Long Term Migration Trends



2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30

Births

Male 2,776 2,949 2,859 2,925 2,957 2,988 3,053 3,102 3,165 3,219 3,266 3,306 3,341 3,374 3,403 3,428 3,451 3,472 3,492 3,512

Female 2,630 2,794 2,708 2,772 2,802 2,831 2,892 2,939 2,999 3,050 3,094 3,132 3,165 3,197 3,224 3,248 3,269 3,289 3,308 3,327

All Births 5,407 5,743 5,567 5,697 5,759 5,819 5,945 6,041 6,164 6,269 6,360 6,437 6,507 6,571 6,627 6,677 6,720 6,761 6,801 6,839

TFR 1.92 2.02 1.95 2.00 2.02 1.99 1.98 1.97 1.97 1.97 1.97 1.97 1.97 1.97 1.97 1.97 1.97 1.97 1.97 1.97

Births input

Deaths

Male 2,704 2,635 2,797 2,696 2,692 2,683 2,686 2,685 2,695 2,707 2,728 2,747 2,771 2,803 2,838 2,877 2,918 2,962 3,005 3,051

Female 3,007 2,911 3,048 2,876 2,858 2,779 2,777 2,765 2,762 2,756 2,756 2,768 2,783 2,801 2,823 2,853 2,889 2,928 2,970 3,011

All deaths 5,711 5,547 5,845 5,572 5,550 5,463 5,463 5,450 5,457 5,463 5,484 5,515 5,555 5,603 5,661 5,730 5,807 5,889 5,975 6,063

SMR: males 103.2 98.3 101.5 95.2 92.5 90.2 88.2 86.0 84.0 82.1 80.4 78.7 77.1 75.7 74.5 73.3 72.2 71.2 70.2 69.3

SMR: females 105.0 100.0 103.2 96.8 94.6 91.0 89.5 87.7 86.0 84.1 82.2 80.7 79.1 77.7 76.3 75.0 73.8 72.7 71.6 70.6

SMR: persons 104.1 99.2 102.4 96.0 93.6 90.6 88.9 86.9 85.0 83.1 81.3 79.7 78.1 76.7 75.4 74.1 73.0 71.9 70.9 69.9




Deaths input


Male 10,085 9,914 10,186 10,200 10,216 10,232 10,247 10,262 10,274 10,286 10,300 10,312 10,322 10,329 10,334 10,335 10,335 10,334 10,332 10,332

Female 10,733 10,532 10,782 10,768 10,752 10,736 10,721 10,706 10,694 10,682 10,668 10,656 10,646 10,639 10,634 10,633 10,633 10,634 10,636 10,636

All 20,818 20,446 20,968 20,968 20,968 20,968 20,968 20,968 20,968 20,968 20,968 20,968 20,968 20,968 20,968 20,968 20,968 20,968 20,968 20,968

SMigR: males 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3

SMigR: females 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3

Migrants input * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *


Male 7,984 7,823 8,074 8,099 8,101 8,092 8,098 8,108 8,116 8,137 8,146 8,158 8,164 8,170 8,171 8,176 8,170 8,171 8,171 8,174

Female 8,497 8,391 8,626 8,601 8,599 8,608 8,602 8,592 8,584 8,563 8,554 8,542 8,536 8,530 8,529 8,524 8,530 8,529 8,529 8,526

All 16,481 16,214 16,700 16,700 16,700 16,700 16,700 16,700 16,700 16,700 16,700 16,700 16,700 16,700 16,700 16,700 16,700 16,700 16,700 16,700

SMigR: males 32.4 31.4 32.2 32.0 31.9 31.3 30.9 30.5 30.2 29.9 29.7 29.5 29.3 29.0 28.8 28.5 28.2 27.9 27.6 27.3

SMigR: females 33.2 32.3 33.1 32.9 32.7 32.3 31.8 31.5 31.2 30.9 30.6 30.4 30.2 29.9 29.6 29.3 29.0 28.7 28.4 28.1

Migrants input * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *


Male 1,244 1,367 1,614 1,605 1,173 1,173 1,173 1,173 1,173 1,173 1,173 1,173 1,173 1,173 1,173 1,173 1,173 1,173 1,173 1,173

Female 1,431 1,456 1,440 1,735 968 968 968 968 968 968 968 968 968 968 968 968 968 968 968 968

All 2,676 2,822 3,055 3,340 2,141 2,141 2,141 2,141 2,141 2,141 2,141 2,141 2,141 2,141 2,141 2,141 2,141 2,141 2,141 2,141

Migrants input * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *


Male 1,543 1,562 1,746 1,980 1,040 1,039 1,038 1,037 1,037 1,037 1,038 1,038 1,039 1,040 1,041 1,042 1,042 1,043 1,044 1,044

Female 1,200 1,535 1,893 1,738 828 829 830 831 831 831 830 830 829 828 827 826 826 825 824 824

All 2,743 3,097 3,639 3,717 1,868 1,868 1,868 1,868 1,868 1,868 1,868 1,868 1,868 1,868 1,868 1,868 1,868 1,868 1,868 1,868

SMigR: males 114.6 114.8 128.0 144.5 75.8 74.2 72.9 71.7 70.7 69.9 69.3 68.7 68.3 67.9 67.5 67.1 66.6 66.1 65.5 64.9

SMigR: females 111.3 140.5 172.7 158.4 75.5 74.1 72.9 71.8 70.9 70.2 69.6 69.1 68.7 68.3 67.9 67.5 67.0 66.4 65.8 65.2

Migrants input * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *


UK +4,337 +4,232 +4,268 +4,268 +4,268 +4,268 +4,268 +4,268 +4,268 +4,268 +4,268 +4,268 +4,268 +4,268 +4,268 +4,268 +4,268 +4,268 +4,268 +4,268 +85,393 +4,270

Overseas -67 -274 -585 -377 +273 +273 +273 +273 +273 +273 +273 +273 +273 +273 +273 +273 +273 +273 +273 +273 +3,064 +153


Natural change -304 +196 -278 +125 +209 +357 +482 +591 +707 +806 +876 +922 +952 +968 +966 +947 +913 +872 +826 +777 +11,909 +595

Net migration +4,270 +3,958 +3,683 +3,891 +4,541 +4,541 +4,541 +4,541 +4,541 +4,541 +4,541 +4,541 +4,541 +4,541 +4,541 +4,541 +4,541 +4,541 +4,541 +4,541 +88,457 +4,423

Net change +3,966 +4,154 +3,405 +4,016 +4,750 +4,898 +5,023 +5,132 +5,248 +5,347 +5,417 +5,463 +5,493 +5,509 +5,507 +5,488 +5,454 +5,413 +5,367 +5,318 +100,366 +5,018

Crude Birth Rate /000 10.17 10.72 10.32 10.49 10.51 10.53 10.66 10.74 10.86 10.94 10.99 11.02 11.04 11.05 11.04 11.02 10.99 10.96 10.93 10.90

Crude Death Rate /000 10.74 10.35 10.83 10.25 10.13 9.89 9.80 9.69 9.61 9.53 9.48 9.45 9.42 9.42 9.43 9.46 9.50 9.55 9.60 9.66




2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030

0-4 27,010 27,565 28,255 28,860 29,156 29,664 29,861 30,118 30,505 31,189 31,683 32,193 32,654 33,084 33,460 33,790 34,081 34,337 34,567 34,777 34,974 7,964 398

5-10 31,730 31,683 32,429 33,140 34,126 34,885 35,958 36,787 37,359 37,869 38,458 39,025 39,346 39,672 40,160 40,882 41,415 41,943 42,414 42,851 43,229 11,499 575

11-15 31,002 30,727 30,116 29,292 28,744 28,266 28,074 28,409 29,186 29,860 30,585 31,311 32,080 32,704 33,358 33,676 34,166 34,368 34,595 34,967 35,566 4,564 228

16-17 12,940 12,641 12,735 12,926 12,846 12,550 12,264 11,872 11,470 11,259 11,418 11,667 12,076 12,621 12,762 12,871 13,136 13,570 13,997 14,018 13,826 886 44

18-59Female, 64Male 291,774 292,821 292,071 291,672 291,798 294,070 296,157 298,058 299,693 301,138 302,469 303,734 304,859 305,978 307,154 308,664 309,773 311,150 312,569 314,214 316,135 24,361 1,218

60/65 -74 82,244 84,421 87,494 89,922 92,074 93,153 94,316 94,998 95,046 94,620 94,153 93,578 91,578 90,751 90,649 90,927 91,829 92,896 93,985 95,203 96,449 14,205 710

75-84 37,545 37,981 38,590 39,079 39,784 40,423 40,886 41,868 43,554 45,754 47,589 49,586 53,196 55,664 57,614 59,060 60,279 60,841 60,938 60,679 60,227 22,682 1,134

85+ 15,549 15,921 16,224 16,428 16,807 17,074 17,466 17,895 18,324 18,697 19,378 20,054 20,823 21,630 22,457 23,252 23,929 24,958 26,411 28,134 29,754 14,205 710

Total 529,794 533,760 537,914 541,319 545,335 550,085 554,982 560,005 565,137 570,385 575,732 581,149 586,612 592,105 597,614 603,121 608,609 614,063 619,475 624,842 630,160 100,366 5,018


0-15 / 16-65 0.27 0.27 0.28 0.28 0.28 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.30 0.30 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.32

65+ / 16-65 0.35 0.36 0.37 0.39 0.40 0.40 0.41 0.41 0.42 0.42 0.42 0.43 0.43 0.44 0.44 0.44 0.45 0.45 0.46 0.46 0.47

0-15 and 65+ / 16-65 0.62 0.63 0.65 0.67 0.68 0.69 0.70 0.70 0.71 0.72 0.73 0.73 0.74 0.75 0.75 0.76 0.77 0.77 0.78 0.79 0.79

Median age males 43.1 43.2 43.5 43.8 44.0 44.0 43.9 43.8 43.7 43.5 43.2 42.9 42.7 42.5 42.4 42.3 42.1 42.0 41.9 41.8 41.7



Households



previous year +1,410 +2,024 +1,871 +2,004 +1,991 +2,210 +2,307 +2,493 +2,573 +2,527 +2,598 +2,580 +2,558 +2,613 +2,561 +2,643 +2,626 +2,530 +2,539 +2,507



previous year +1,548 +2,222 +2,054 +2,200 +2,186 +2,426 +2,532 +2,737 +2,825 +2,774 +2,852 +2,833 +2,809 +2,869 +2,811 +2,902 +2,883 +2,777 +2,787 +2,752

Labour Force



previous year +1,230 -6,800 +9,400 +1,081 +2,350 +2,420 +1,960 +1,923 +2,405 +2,459 +1,479 +1,146 +1,111 +1,174 +1,377 +1,479 +1,877 +1,900 +1,508 +1,805

Number of Jobs 205,500 206,000 204,600 206,300 208,253 210,128 212,060 213,678 215,268 217,244 219,264 220,501 221,474 222,418 223,413 224,572 225,812 227,372 228,951 230,217 231,768 26,268 1,313


year +3,371 -1,400 +1,700 +1,953 +1,875 +1,931 +1,618 +1,590 +1,976 +2,020 +1,238 +972 +945 +995 +1,158 +1,240 +1,560 +1,579 +1,266 +1,551


Population Estimates and Forecasts Cornwall Scenario Bii(a): Unattributable Population Growth Sensitivity for Long Term Migration



2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30

Births

Male 2,776 2,949 2,856 2,922 2,954 2,979 3,037 3,080 3,137 3,185 3,226 3,261 3,291 3,319 3,343 3,364 3,382 3,399 3,416 3,432

Female 2,630 2,794 2,705 2,769 2,799 2,822 2,877 2,918 2,972 3,018 3,057 3,089 3,118 3,145 3,167 3,187 3,204 3,220 3,236 3,252

All Births 5,407 5,743 5,561 5,691 5,753 5,801 5,914 5,999 6,110 6,203 6,283 6,350 6,409 6,464 6,510 6,551 6,586 6,619 6,652 6,684

TFR 1.92 2.02 1.95 2.00 2.02 1.99 1.98 1.97 1.97 1.97 1.97 1.97 1.97 1.97 1.97 1.97 1.97 1.97 1.97 1.97

Births input

Deaths

Male 2,704 2,635 2,797 2,696 2,692 2,683 2,685 2,684 2,693 2,705 2,726 2,744 2,768 2,798 2,833 2,871 2,911 2,954 2,997 3,042

Female 3,007 2,911 3,048 2,876 2,858 2,779 2,776 2,765 2,761 2,755 2,754 2,766 2,781 2,798 2,820 2,849 2,884 2,922 2,963 3,004

All deaths 5,711 5,547 5,845 5,572 5,550 5,462 5,462 5,449 5,455 5,460 5,480 5,510 5,548 5,596 5,652 5,720 5,795 5,876 5,960 6,046

SMR: males 103.2 98.3 101.5 95.2 92.5 90.2 88.2 86.0 84.0 82.1 80.4 78.7 77.1 75.7 74.5 73.3 72.2 71.2 70.2 69.3

SMR: females 105.0 100.0 103.2 96.8 94.6 91.0 89.5 87.7 86.0 84.1 82.2 80.7 79.1 77.7 76.3 75.0 73.8 72.7 71.6 70.6

SMR: persons 104.1 99.2 102.4 96.0 93.6 90.6 88.9 86.9 85.0 83.1 81.3 79.7 78.1 76.7 75.4 74.1 73.0 71.9 70.9 69.9




Deaths input


Male 10,085 9,914 10,186 10,200 10,216 10,232 10,247 10,262 10,275 10,286 10,300 10,312 10,322 10,329 10,334 10,335 10,335 10,334 10,332 10,332

Female 10,733 10,532 10,782 10,768 10,752 10,736 10,721 10,706 10,693 10,682 10,668 10,656 10,646 10,639 10,634 10,633 10,633 10,634 10,636 10,636

All 20,818 20,446 20,968 20,968 20,968 20,968 20,968 20,968 20,968 20,968 20,968 20,968 20,968 20,968 20,968 20,968 20,968 20,968 20,968 20,968

SMigR: males 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3

SMigR: females 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3

Migrants input * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *


Male 7,984 7,823 8,074 8,099 8,101 8,092 8,097 8,106 8,113 8,133 8,142 8,153 8,158 8,164 8,164 8,169 8,163 8,163 8,163 8,165

Female 8,497 8,391 8,626 8,601 8,599 8,608 8,603 8,594 8,587 8,567 8,558 8,547 8,542 8,536 8,536 8,531 8,537 8,537 8,537 8,535

All 16,481 16,214 16,700 16,700 16,700 16,700 16,700 16,700 16,700 16,700 16,700 16,700 16,700 16,700 16,700 16,700 16,700 16,700 16,700 16,700

SMigR: males 32.4 31.4 32.2 32.0 31.9 31.4 31.0 30.6 30.3 30.1 29.9 29.8 29.6 29.4 29.1 28.9 28.6 28.4 28.1 27.8

SMigR: females 33.2 32.3 33.1 32.9 32.7 32.3 31.9 31.6 31.3 31.1 30.9 30.7 30.5 30.2 30.0 29.7 29.4 29.1 28.8 28.5

Migrants input * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *


Male 1,244 1,367 1,558 1,554 957 957 957 957 957 957 957 957 957 957 957 957 957 957 957 957

Female 1,431 1,456 1,417 1,703 790 790 790 790 790 790 790 790 790 790 790 790 790 790 790 790

All 2,676 2,822 2,975 3,258 1,747 1,747 1,747 1,747 1,747 1,747 1,747 1,747 1,747 1,747 1,747 1,747 1,747 1,747 1,747 1,747

Migrants input * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *


Male 1,543 1,562 1,687 1,926 1,040 1,039 1,037 1,037 1,037 1,037 1,038 1,038 1,038 1,039 1,040 1,041 1,041 1,042 1,043 1,043

Female 1,200 1,535 1,867 1,703 828 829 831 831 831 831 830 830 830 829 828 827 827 826 825 825

All 2,743 3,097 3,554 3,629 1,868 1,868 1,868 1,868 1,868 1,868 1,868 1,868 1,868 1,868 1,868 1,868 1,868 1,868 1,868 1,868

SMigR: males 114.6 114.8 123.6 140.6 75.8 74.4 73.1 72.1 71.2 70.5 70.0 69.5 69.2 68.9 68.5 68.2 67.7 67.3 66.7 66.2

SMigR: females 111.3 140.5 170.3 155.2 75.5 74.3 73.2 72.2 71.4 70.8 70.3 69.9 69.6 69.3 68.9 68.5 68.1 67.6 67.0 66.4

Migrants input * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *


UK +4,337 +4,232 +4,268 +4,268 +4,268 +4,268 +4,268 +4,268 +4,268 +4,268 +4,268 +4,268 +4,268 +4,268 +4,268 +4,268 +4,268 +4,268 +4,268 +4,268 +85,393 +4,270

Overseas -67 -274 -579 -371 -121 -121 -121 -121 -121 -121 -121 -121 -121 -121 -121 -121 -121 -121 -121 -121 -3,228 -161


Natural change -304 +196 -284 +119 +203 +339 +453 +550 +655 +743 +803 +840 +860 +868 +858 +831 +790 +743 +692 +637 +10,593 +530

Net migration +4,270 +3,958 +3,689 +3,897 +4,147 +4,147 +4,147 +4,147 +4,147 +4,147 +4,147 +4,147 +4,147 +4,147 +4,147 +4,147 +4,147 +4,147 +4,147 +4,147 +82,165 +4,108

Net change +3,966 +4,154 +3,405 +4,016 +4,350 +4,486 +4,600 +4,697 +4,802 +4,890 +4,950 +4,987 +5,007 +5,015 +5,005 +4,978 +4,937 +4,890 +4,839 +4,784 +92,758 +4,638

Crude Birth Rate /000 10.17 10.72 10.31 10.47 10.51 10.51 10.63 10.69 10.80 10.87 10.91 10.94 10.94 10.94 10.93 10.91 10.88 10.84 10.81 10.78

Crude Death Rate /000 10.74 10.35 10.83 10.25 10.14 9.90 9.81 9.71 9.64 9.57 9.52 9.49 9.47 9.47 9.49 9.52 9.57 9.63 9.69 9.75




2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030

0-4 27,010 27,565 28,255 28,860 29,156 29,644 29,811 30,028 30,367 30,995 31,432 31,885 32,290 32,667 32,991 33,272 33,515 33,726 33,914 34,084 34,244 7,234 362

5-10 31,730 31,683 32,429 33,140 34,126 34,874 35,934 36,748 37,303 37,795 38,359 38,892 39,169 39,445 39,876 40,533 41,001 41,465 41,874 42,250 42,570 10,840 542

11-15 31,002 30,727 30,116 29,292 28,744 28,257 28,056 28,383 29,149 29,813 30,525 31,239 31,993 32,602 33,239 33,538 34,005 34,176 34,364 34,692 35,239 4,237 212

16-17 12,940 12,641 12,735 12,926 12,846 12,540 12,247 11,849 11,444 11,228 11,383 11,628 12,032 12,571 12,707 12,811 13,070 13,496 13,915 13,929 13,729 789 39

18-59Female, 64Male 291,774 292,821 292,071 291,672 291,798 293,729 295,477 297,040 298,339 299,450 300,450 301,388 302,186 302,981 303,833 305,019 305,807 306,863 307,960 309,284 310,882 19,108 955

60/65 -74 82,244 84,421 87,494 89,922 92,074 93,145 94,298 94,968 95,000 94,558 94,073 93,478 91,458 90,609 90,484 90,737 91,613 92,651 93,710 94,895 96,107 13,863 693

75-84 37,545 37,981 38,590 39,079 39,784 40,421 40,883 41,862 43,544 45,739 47,567 49,556 53,156 55,613 57,551 58,984 60,189 60,738 60,820 60,546 60,080 22,535 1,127

85+ 15,549 15,921 16,224 16,428 16,807 17,074 17,465 17,893 18,321 18,692 19,371 20,045 20,812 21,615 22,438 23,229 23,902 24,925 26,372 28,088 29,700 14,151 708

Total 529,794 533,760 537,914 541,319 545,335 549,685 554,171 558,770 563,467 568,270 573,160 578,110 583,097 588,104 593,119 598,124 603,102 608,039 612,929 617,767 622,552 92,758 4,638


0-15 / 16-65 0.27 0.27 0.28 0.28 0.28 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.30 0.30 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.32

65+ / 16-65 0.35 0.36 0.37 0.39 0.40 0.40 0.41 0.41 0.42 0.42 0.43 0.43 0.44 0.44 0.44 0.45 0.45 0.46 0.46 0.47 0.48

0-15 and 65+ / 16-65 0.62 0.63 0.65 0.67 0.68 0.69 0.70 0.70 0.71 0.72 0.73 0.74 0.74 0.75 0.76 0.77 0.77 0.78 0.78 0.79 0.80

Median age males 43.1 43.2 43.5 43.8 44.0 44.0 44.0 43.9 43.8 43.6 43.4 43.1 42.9 42.7 42.6 42.5 42.4 42.2 42.1 42.1 42.0



Households



previous year +1,410 +2,024 +1,871 +2,004 +1,856 +2,064 +2,151 +2,179 +2,240 +2,185 +2,247 +2,210 +2,179 +2,220 +2,179 +2,264 +2,251 +2,150 +2,155 +2,113



previous year +1,548 +2,222 +2,054 +2,200 +2,037 +2,266 +2,362 +2,392 +2,459 +2,399 +2,466 +2,427 +2,392 +2,437 +2,392 +2,486 +2,471 +2,361 +2,365 +2,320

Labour Force



previous year +1,230 -6,800 +9,400 +1,081 +2,074 +2,141 +1,680 +1,643 +2,124 +2,178 +1,199 +867 +832 +896 +1,099 +1,201 +1,599 +1,622 +1,230 +1,525

Number of Jobs 205,500 206,000 204,600 206,300 208,253 209,908 211,616 213,011 214,377 216,128 217,923 218,937 219,686 220,407 221,180 222,116 223,134 224,470 225,825 226,868 228,193 22,693 1,135


year +3,371 -1,400 +1,700 +1,953 +1,655 +1,709 +1,395 +1,366 +1,751 +1,795 +1,014 +749 +722 +773 +936 +1,018 +1,336 +1,355 +1,042 +1,325


Population Estimates and Forecasts Scenario Bii(b): Partial Catch-up and Unattributable Population Growth Sensitivity for Long Term Migration



2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30

Births

Male 2,776 2,949 2,856 2,922 2,954 2,979 3,037 3,080 3,137 3,185 3,226 3,261 3,291 3,319 3,343 3,364 3,382 3,399 3,416 3,432

Female 2,630 2,794 2,705 2,769 2,799 2,822 2,877 2,918 2,972 3,018 3,057 3,089 3,118 3,145 3,167 3,187 3,204 3,220 3,236 3,252

All Births 5,407 5,743 5,561 5,691 5,753 5,801 5,914 5,999 6,110 6,203 6,283 6,350 6,409 6,464 6,510 6,551 6,586 6,619 6,652 6,684

TFR 1.92 2.02 1.95 2.00 2.02 1.99 1.98 1.97 1.97 1.97 1.97 1.97 1.97 1.97 1.97 1.97 1.97 1.97 1.97 1.97

Births input

Deaths

Male 2,704 2,635 2,797 2,696 2,692 2,683 2,685 2,684 2,693 2,705 2,726 2,744 2,768 2,798 2,833 2,871 2,911 2,954 2,997 3,042

Female 3,007 2,911 3,048 2,876 2,858 2,779 2,776 2,765 2,761 2,755 2,754 2,766 2,781 2,798 2,820 2,849 2,884 2,922 2,963 3,004

All deaths 5,711 5,547 5,845 5,572 5,550 5,462 5,462 5,449 5,455 5,460 5,480 5,510 5,548 5,596 5,652 5,720 5,795 5,876 5,960 6,046

SMR: males 103.2 98.3 101.5 95.2 92.5 90.2 88.2 86.0 84.0 82.1 80.4 78.7 77.1 75.7 74.5 73.3 72.2 71.2 70.2 69.3

SMR: females 105.0 100.0 103.2 96.8 94.6 91.0 89.5 87.7 86.0 84.1 82.2 80.7 79.1 77.7 76.3 75.0 73.8 72.7 71.6 70.6

SMR: persons 104.1 99.2 102.4 96.0 93.6 90.6 88.9 86.9 85.0 83.1 81.3 79.7 78.1 76.7 75.4 74.1 73.0 71.9 70.9 69.9




Deaths input


Male 10,085 9,914 10,186 10,200 10,216 10,232 10,247 10,262 10,275 10,286 10,300 10,312 10,322 10,329 10,334 10,335 10,335 10,334 10,332 10,332

Female 10,733 10,532 10,782 10,768 10,752 10,736 10,721 10,706 10,693 10,682 10,668 10,656 10,646 10,639 10,634 10,633 10,633 10,634 10,636 10,636

All 20,818 20,446 20,968 20,968 20,968 20,968 20,968 20,968 20,968 20,968 20,968 20,968 20,968 20,968 20,968 20,968 20,968 20,968 20,968 20,968

SMigR: males 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3

SMigR: females 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3

Migrants input * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *


Male 7,984 7,823 8,074 8,099 8,101 8,092 8,097 8,106 8,113 8,133 8,142 8,153 8,158 8,164 8,164 8,169 8,163 8,163 8,163 8,165

Female 8,497 8,391 8,626 8,601 8,599 8,608 8,603 8,594 8,587 8,567 8,558 8,547 8,542 8,536 8,536 8,531 8,537 8,537 8,537 8,535

All 16,481 16,214 16,700 16,700 16,700 16,700 16,700 16,700 16,700 16,700 16,700 16,700 16,700 16,700 16,700 16,700 16,700 16,700 16,700 16,700

SMigR: males 32.4 31.4 32.2 32.0 31.9 31.4 31.0 30.6 30.3 30.1 29.9 29.8 29.6 29.4 29.1 28.9 28.6 28.4 28.1 27.8

SMigR: females 33.2 32.3 33.1 32.9 32.7 32.3 31.9 31.6 31.3 31.1 30.9 30.7 30.5 30.2 30.0 29.7 29.4 29.1 28.8 28.5

Migrants input * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *


Male 1,244 1,367 1,558 1,554 957 957 957 957 957 957 957 957 957 957 957 957 957 957 957 957

Female 1,431 1,456 1,417 1,703 790 790 790 790 790 790 790 790 790 790 790 790 790 790 790 790

All 2,676 2,822 2,975 3,258 1,747 1,747 1,747 1,747 1,747 1,747 1,747 1,747 1,747 1,747 1,747 1,747 1,747 1,747 1,747 1,747

Migrants input * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *


Male 1,543 1,562 1,687 1,926 1,040 1,039 1,037 1,037 1,037 1,037 1,038 1,038 1,038 1,039 1,040 1,041 1,041 1,042 1,043 1,043

Female 1,200 1,535 1,867 1,703 828 829 831 831 831 831 830 830 830 829 828 827 827 826 825 825

All 2,743 3,097 3,554 3,629 1,868 1,868 1,868 1,868 1,868 1,868 1,868 1,868 1,868 1,868 1,868 1,868 1,868 1,868 1,868 1,868

SMigR: males 114.6 114.8 123.6 140.6 75.8 74.4 73.1 72.1 71.2 70.5 70.0 69.5 69.2 68.9 68.5 68.2 67.7 67.3 66.7 66.2

SMigR: females 111.3 140.5 170.3 155.2 75.5 74.3 73.2 72.2 71.4 70.8 70.3 69.9 69.6 69.3 68.9 68.5 68.1 67.6 67.0 66.4

Migrants input * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *


UK +4,337 +4,232 +4,268 +4,268 +4,268 +4,268 +4,268 +4,268 +4,268 +4,268 +4,268 +4,268 +4,268 +4,268 +4,268 +4,268 +4,268 +4,268 +4,268 +4,268 +85,393 +4,270

Overseas -67 -274 -579 -371 -121 -121 -121 -121 -121 -121 -121 -121 -121 -121 -121 -121 -121 -121 -121 -121 -3,228 -161


Natural change -304 +196 -284 +119 +203 +339 +453 +550 +655 +743 +803 +840 +860 +868 +858 +831 +790 +743 +692 +637 +10,593 +530

Net migration +4,270 +3,958 +3,689 +3,897 +4,147 +4,147 +4,147 +4,147 +4,147 +4,147 +4,147 +4,147 +4,147 +4,147 +4,147 +4,147 +4,147 +4,147 +4,147 +4,147 +82,165 +4,108

Net change +3,966 +4,154 +3,405 +4,016 +4,350 +4,486 +4,600 +4,697 +4,802 +4,890 +4,950 +4,987 +5,007 +5,015 +5,005 +4,978 +4,937 +4,890 +4,839 +4,784 +92,758 +4,638

Crude Birth Rate /000 10.17 10.72 10.31 10.47 10.51 10.51 10.63 10.69 10.80 10.87 10.91 10.94 10.94 10.94 10.93 10.91 10.88 10.84 10.81 10.78

Crude Death Rate /000 10.74 10.35 10.83 10.25 10.14 9.90 9.81 9.71 9.64 9.57 9.52 9.49 9.47 9.47 9.49 9.52 9.57 9.63 9.69 9.75




2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030

0-4 27,010 27,565 28,255 28,860 29,156 29,644 29,811 30,028 30,367 30,995 31,432 31,885 32,290 32,667 32,991 33,272 33,515 33,726 33,914 34,084 34,244 7,234 362

5-10 31,730 31,683 32,429 33,140 34,126 34,874 35,934 36,748 37,303 37,795 38,359 38,892 39,169 39,445 39,876 40,533 41,001 41,465 41,874 42,250 42,570 10,840 542

11-15 31,002 30,727 30,116 29,292 28,744 28,257 28,056 28,383 29,149 29,813 30,525 31,239 31,993 32,602 33,239 33,538 34,005 34,176 34,364 34,692 35,239 4,237 212

16-17 12,940 12,641 12,735 12,926 12,846 12,540 12,247 11,849 11,444 11,228 11,383 11,628 12,032 12,571 12,707 12,811 13,070 13,496 13,915 13,929 13,729 789 39

18-59Female, 64Male 291,774 292,821 292,071 291,672 291,798 293,729 295,477 297,040 298,339 299,450 300,450 301,388 302,186 302,981 303,833 305,019 305,807 306,863 307,960 309,284 310,882 19,108 955

60/65 -74 82,244 84,421 87,494 89,922 92,074 93,145 94,298 94,968 95,000 94,558 94,073 93,478 91,458 90,609 90,484 90,737 91,613 92,651 93,710 94,895 96,107 13,863 693

75-84 37,545 37,981 38,590 39,079 39,784 40,421 40,883 41,862 43,544 45,739 47,567 49,556 53,156 55,613 57,551 58,984 60,189 60,738 60,820 60,546 60,080 22,535 1,127

85+ 15,549 15,921 16,224 16,428 16,807 17,074 17,465 17,893 18,321 18,692 19,371 20,045 20,812 21,615 22,438 23,229 23,902 24,925 26,372 28,088 29,700 14,151 708

Total 529,794 533,760 537,914 541,319 545,335 549,685 554,171 558,770 563,467 568,270 573,160 578,110 583,097 588,104 593,119 598,124 603,102 608,039 612,929 617,767 622,552 92,758 4,638


0-15 / 16-65 0.27 0.27 0.28 0.28 0.28 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.30 0.30 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.32

65+ / 16-65 0.35 0.36 0.37 0.39 0.40 0.40 0.41 0.41 0.42 0.42 0.43 0.43 0.44 0.44 0.44 0.45 0.45 0.46 0.46 0.47 0.48

0-15 and 65+ / 16-65 0.62 0.63 0.65 0.67 0.68 0.69 0.70 0.70 0.71 0.72 0.73 0.74 0.74 0.75 0.76 0.77 0.77 0.78 0.78 0.79 0.80

Median age males 43.1 43.2 43.5 43.8 44.0 44.0 44.0 43.9 43.8 43.6 43.4 43.1 42.9 42.7 42.6 42.5 42.4 42.2 42.1 42.1 42.0



Households



previous year +1,410 +2,024 +1,871 +2,004 +1,856 +2,064 +2,151 +2,328 +2,400 +2,347 +2,413 +2,390 +2,363 +2,414 +2,359 +2,438 +2,419 +2,320 +2,326 +2,293



previous year +1,548 +2,222 +2,054 +2,200 +2,037 +2,266 +2,362 +2,555 +2,635 +2,577 +2,649 +2,624 +2,595 +2,651 +2,589 +2,676 +2,655 +2,547 +2,554 +2,517

Labour Force



previous year +1,230 -6,800 +9,400 +1,081 +2,074 +2,141 +1,680 +1,643 +2,124 +2,178 +1,199 +867 +832 +896 +1,099 +1,201 +1,599 +1,622 +1,230 +1,525

Number of Jobs 205,500 206,000 204,600 206,300 208,253 209,908 211,616 213,011 214,377 216,128 217,923 218,937 219,686 220,407 221,180 222,116 223,134 224,470 225,825 226,868 228,193 22,693 1,135


year +3,371 -1,400 +1,700 +1,953 +1,655 +1,709 +1,395 +1,366 +1,751 +1,795 +1,014 +749 +722 +773 +936 +1,018 +1,336 +1,355 +1,042 +1,325


Population Estimates and Forecasts Cornwall Scenario C: Experian-based Employment Change



2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30

Births

Male 2,776 2,949 2,859 2,925 2,957 2,987 3,051 3,109 3,181 3,232 3,276 3,334 3,395 3,454 3,507 3,551 3,589 3,617 3,643 3,677

Female 2,630 2,794 2,708 2,772 2,802 2,830 2,891 2,945 3,013 3,062 3,104 3,159 3,217 3,272 3,322 3,364 3,401 3,427 3,452 3,483

All Births 5,407 5,743 5,567 5,697 5,759 5,818 5,942 6,054 6,194 6,295 6,380 6,493 6,612 6,727 6,829 6,915 6,990 7,044 7,095 7,160

TFR 1.92 2.02 1.95 2.00 2.02 1.99 1.98 1.97 1.97 1.97 1.97 1.97 1.97 1.97 1.97 1.97 1.97 1.97 1.97 1.97

Births input

Deaths

Male 2,704 2,635 2,797 2,696 2,692 2,683 2,686 2,686 2,697 2,709 2,730 2,751 2,779 2,815 2,854 2,897 2,941 2,987 3,033 3,083

Female 3,007 2,911 3,048 2,876 2,858 2,779 2,776 2,766 2,764 2,758 2,757 2,773 2,791 2,812 2,839 2,872 2,911 2,952 2,996 3,041

All deaths 5,711 5,547 5,845 5,572 5,550 5,462 5,462 5,452 5,461 5,467 5,487 5,524 5,570 5,627 5,693 5,768 5,852 5,939 6,029 6,124

SMR: males 103.2 98.3 101.5 95.2 92.5 90.2 88.2 86.0 84.0 82.1 80.4 78.7 77.1 75.7 74.5 73.3 72.2 71.2 70.2 69.3

SMR: females 105.0 100.0 103.2 96.8 94.6 91.0 89.5 87.7 86.0 84.1 82.2 80.7 79.1 77.7 76.3 75.0 73.8 72.7 71.6 70.6

SMR: persons 104.1 99.2 102.4 96.0 93.6 90.6 88.9 86.9 85.0 83.1 81.3 79.7 78.1 76.7 75.4 74.1 73.0 71.9 70.9 69.9




Deaths input


Male 10,085 9,914 10,186 10,200 10,203 10,220 10,393 10,419 10,236 10,230 10,643 10,783 10,804 10,787 10,712 10,674 10,508 10,501 10,663 10,509

Female 10,733 10,532 10,782 10,768 10,738 10,724 10,874 10,870 10,653 10,624 11,023 11,142 11,144 11,110 11,023 10,981 10,811 10,806 10,976 10,819

All 20,818 20,446 20,968 20,968 20,942 20,945 21,268 21,289 20,889 20,854 21,665 21,926 21,949 21,897 21,734 21,654 21,319 21,307 21,639 21,328

SMigR: males 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3

SMigR: females 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3

Migrants input * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *


Male 7,984 7,823 8,074 8,099 8,113 8,104 7,953 7,950 8,151 8,190 7,805 7,686 7,676 7,704 7,783 7,827 7,987 7,996 7,836 7,990

Female 8,497 8,391 8,626 8,601 8,613 8,619 8,448 8,429 8,628 8,624 8,197 8,057 8,043 8,067 8,150 8,186 8,362 8,365 8,193 8,350

All 16,481 16,214 16,700 16,700 16,726 16,723 16,400 16,379 16,779 16,814 16,003 15,742 15,719 15,771 15,934 16,014 16,349 16,361 16,029 16,340

SMigR: males 32.4 31.4 32.2 32.0 31.9 31.3 30.3 29.8 30.2 30.0 28.4 27.6 27.2 26.9 26.8 26.6 26.8 26.6 25.7 25.9

SMigR: females 33.2 32.3 33.1 32.9 32.8 32.3 31.3 30.8 31.2 31.0 29.3 28.5 28.1 27.8 27.7 27.4 27.6 27.3 26.5 26.6

Migrants input * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *


Male 1,244 1,367 1,614 1,605 1,173 1,173 1,173 1,173 1,173 1,173 1,173 1,173 1,173 1,173 1,173 1,173 1,173 1,173 1,173 1,173

Female 1,431 1,456 1,440 1,735 968 968 968 968 968 968 968 968 968 968 968 968 968 968 968 968

All 2,676 2,822 3,055 3,340 2,141 2,141 2,141 2,141 2,141 2,141 2,141 2,141 2,141 2,141 2,141 2,141 2,141 2,141 2,141 2,141

Migrants input * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *


Male 1,543 1,562 1,746 1,980 1,040 1,039 1,038 1,037 1,037 1,037 1,038 1,038 1,038 1,039 1,040 1,040 1,041 1,042 1,042 1,043

Female 1,200 1,535 1,893 1,738 828 829 830 831 831 831 830 830 830 829 828 828 827 826 826 825

All 2,743 3,097 3,639 3,717 1,868 1,868 1,868 1,868 1,868 1,868 1,868 1,868 1,868 1,868 1,868 1,868 1,868 1,868 1,868 1,868

SMigR: males 114.6 114.8 128.0 144.5 75.8 74.2 72.9 71.6 70.4 69.6 69.1 68.2 67.4 66.5 65.8 65.1 64.4 63.8 63.2 62.4

SMigR: females 111.3 140.5 172.7 158.4 75.5 74.1 72.9 71.7 70.6 69.9 69.4 68.6 67.8 67.0 66.2 65.4 64.8 64.2 63.5 62.7

Migrants input * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *


UK +4,337 +4,232 +4,268 +4,268 +4,216 +4,221 +4,867 +4,910 +4,111 +4,039 +5,663 +6,183 +6,229 +6,127 +5,801 +5,641 +4,970 +4,946 +5,611 +4,987 +99,628 +4,981

Overseas -67 -274 -585 -377 +273 +273 +273 +273 +273 +273 +273 +273 +273 +273 +273 +273 +273 +273 +273 +273 +3,064 +153


Natural change -304 +196 -278 +125 +209 +355 +480 +602 +733 +828 +892 +969 +1,041 +1,100 +1,137 +1,147 +1,138 +1,105 +1,066 +1,036 +13,578 +679

Net migration +4,270 +3,958 +3,683 +3,891 +4,489 +4,494 +5,140 +5,183 +4,384 +4,312 +5,936 +6,456 +6,502 +6,400 +6,074 +5,914 +5,243 +5,219 +5,884 +5,260 +102,692 +5,135

Net change +3,966 +4,154 +3,405 +4,016 +4,697 +4,850 +5,620 +5,785 +5,117 +5,140 +6,828 +7,426 +7,543 +7,499 +7,211 +7,061 +6,381 +6,325 +6,950 +6,296 +116,270 +5,814

Crude Birth Rate /000 10.17 10.72 10.32 10.49 10.51 10.53 10.65 10.75 10.89 10.97 11.00 11.06 11.12 11.17 11.21 11.22 11.21 11.19 11.15 11.14

Crude Death Rate /000 10.74 10.35 10.83 10.25 10.13 9.89 9.79 9.68 9.60 9.52 9.46 9.41 9.37 9.35 9.34 9.36 9.39 9.43 9.48 9.53




2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030

0-4 27,010 27,565 28,255 28,860 29,156 29,661 29,855 30,144 30,578 31,271 31,765 32,368 32,976 33,578 34,136 34,650 35,130 35,530 35,880 36,226 36,513 9,503 475

5-10 31,730 31,683 32,429 33,140 34,126 34,883 35,952 36,811 37,417 37,925 38,508 39,149 39,575 40,025 40,649 41,499 42,152 42,785 43,379 43,984 44,507 12,777 639

11-15 31,002 30,727 30,116 29,292 28,744 28,265 28,071 28,423 29,220 29,893 30,613 31,386 32,222 32,920 33,650 34,039 34,601 34,856 35,134 35,589 36,265 5,263 263

16-17 12,940 12,641 12,735 12,926 12,846 12,549 12,263 11,878 11,483 11,269 11,427 11,695 12,127 12,698 12,867 12,999 13,288 13,738 14,186 14,235 14,058 1,118 56

18-59Female, 64Male 291,774 292,821 292,071 291,672 291,798 294,030 296,082 298,440 300,558 301,872 303,021 305,330 307,874 310,425 312,935 315,525 317,585 319,409 321,259 323,836 326,230 34,456 1,723

60/65 -74 82,244 84,421 87,494 89,922 92,074 93,150 94,310 95,027 95,115 94,687 94,212 93,721 91,841 91,146 91,182 91,590 92,623 93,789 94,979 96,339 97,693 15,449 772

75-84 37,545 37,981 38,590 39,079 39,784 40,422 40,884 41,878 43,578 45,778 47,609 49,640 53,305 55,834 57,847 59,352 60,632 61,237 61,376 61,175 60,767 23,222 1,161

85+ 15,549 15,921 16,224 16,428 16,807 17,074 17,465 17,901 18,338 18,709 19,388 20,082 20,879 21,715 22,574 23,397 24,101 25,149 26,624 28,384 30,032 14,483 724

Total 529,794 533,760 537,914 541,319 545,335 550,032 554,882 560,502 566,287 571,404 576,544 583,372 590,798 598,341 605,841 613,051 620,112 626,493 632,818 639,768 646,064 116,270 5,814


0-15 / 16-65 0.27 0.27 0.28 0.28 0.28 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.30 0.30 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.32

65+ / 16-65 0.35 0.36 0.37 0.39 0.40 0.40 0.41 0.41 0.42 0.42 0.42 0.43 0.43 0.43 0.44 0.44 0.44 0.45 0.45 0.46 0.46

0-15 and 65+ / 16-65 0.62 0.63 0.65 0.67 0.68 0.69 0.70 0.70 0.71 0.72 0.73 0.73 0.74 0.74 0.75 0.75 0.76 0.76 0.77 0.78 0.78

Median age males 43.1 43.2 43.5 43.8 44.0 44.0 43.9 43.8 43.7 43.4 43.2 42.8 42.5 42.3 42.1 41.9 41.7 41.6 41.5 41.4 41.3



Labour Force



previous year +1,230 -6,800 +9,400 +1,081 +2,318 +2,391 +2,322 +2,321 +2,320 +2,319 +2,318 +2,317 +2,315 +2,314 +2,313 +2,312 +2,311 +2,309 +2,308 +2,247

Number of supply units 205,500 206,000 204,600 206,300 208,253 210,103 212,011 213,919 215,827 217,735 219,643 221,551 223,459 225,367 227,275 229,183 231,091 232,999 234,907 236,815 238,723 33,223 1,661

Change in over previous

year +3,371 -1,400 +1,700 +1,953 +1,850 +1,908 +1,908 +1,908 +1,908 +1,908 +1,908 +1,908 +1,908 +1,908 +1,908 +1,908 +1,908 +1,908 +1,908 +1,908

Households



previous year +1,410 +2,024 +1,871 +2,004 +1,973 +2,193 +2,509 +2,575 +2,380 +2,297 +2,920 +3,102 +3,126 +3,163 +3,027 +3,071 +2,839 +2,727 +2,960 +2,714


Change in Dwellings +1,548 +2,222 +2,054 +2,200 +2,166 +2,408 +2,755 +2,827 +2,613 +2,522 +3,205 +3,406 +3,432 +3,472 +3,323 +3,372 +3,116 +2,993 +3,250 +2,979


Population Estimates and Forecasts Cornwall Scenario Ci: Partial Catch-up Sensitivity for Experian Employment Change



2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30

Births

Male 2,776 2,949 2,859 2,925 2,957 2,987 3,051 3,109 3,181 3,232 3,276 3,334 3,395 3,454 3,507 3,551 3,589 3,617 3,643 3,677

Female 2,630 2,794 2,708 2,772 2,802 2,830 2,891 2,945 3,013 3,062 3,104 3,159 3,217 3,272 3,322 3,364 3,401 3,427 3,452 3,483

All Births 5,407 5,743 5,567 5,697 5,759 5,818 5,942 6,054 6,194 6,295 6,380 6,493 6,612 6,727 6,829 6,915 6,990 7,044 7,095 7,160

TFR 1.92 2.02 1.95 2.00 2.02 1.99 1.98 1.97 1.97 1.97 1.97 1.97 1.97 1.97 1.97 1.97 1.97 1.97 1.97 1.97

Births input

Deaths

Male 2,704 2,635 2,797 2,696 2,692 2,683 2,686 2,686 2,697 2,709 2,730 2,751 2,779 2,815 2,854 2,897 2,941 2,987 3,033 3,083

Female 3,007 2,911 3,048 2,876 2,858 2,779 2,776 2,766 2,764 2,758 2,757 2,773 2,791 2,812 2,839 2,872 2,911 2,952 2,996 3,041

All deaths 5,711 5,547 5,845 5,572 5,550 5,462 5,462 5,452 5,461 5,467 5,487 5,524 5,570 5,627 5,693 5,768 5,852 5,939 6,029 6,124

SMR: males 103.2 98.3 101.5 95.2 92.5 90.2 88.2 86.0 84.0 82.1 80.4 78.7 77.1 75.7 74.5 73.3 72.2 71.2 70.2 69.3

SMR: females 105.0 100.0 103.2 96.8 94.6 91.0 89.5 87.7 86.0 84.1 82.2 80.7 79.1 77.7 76.3 75.0 73.8 72.7 71.6 70.6

SMR: persons 104.1 99.2 102.4 96.0 93.6 90.6 88.9 86.9 85.0 83.1 81.3 79.7 78.1 76.7 75.4 74.1 73.0 71.9 70.9 69.9




Deaths input


Male 10,085 9,914 10,186 10,200 10,203 10,220 10,393 10,419 10,236 10,230 10,643 10,783 10,804 10,787 10,712 10,674 10,508 10,501 10,663 10,509

Female 10,733 10,532 10,782 10,768 10,738 10,724 10,874 10,870 10,653 10,624 11,023 11,142 11,144 11,110 11,023 10,981 10,811 10,806 10,976 10,819

All 20,818 20,446 20,968 20,968 20,942 20,945 21,268 21,289 20,889 20,854 21,665 21,926 21,949 21,897 21,734 21,654 21,319 21,307 21,639 21,328

SMigR: males 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3

SMigR: females 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3

Migrants input * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *


Male 7,984 7,823 8,074 8,099 8,113 8,104 7,953 7,950 8,151 8,190 7,805 7,686 7,676 7,704 7,783 7,827 7,987 7,996 7,836 7,990

Female 8,497 8,391 8,626 8,601 8,613 8,619 8,448 8,429 8,628 8,624 8,197 8,057 8,043 8,067 8,150 8,186 8,362 8,365 8,193 8,350

All 16,481 16,214 16,700 16,700 16,726 16,723 16,400 16,379 16,779 16,814 16,003 15,742 15,719 15,771 15,934 16,014 16,349 16,361 16,029 16,340

SMigR: males 32.4 31.4 32.2 32.0 31.9 31.3 30.3 29.8 30.2 30.0 28.4 27.6 27.2 26.9 26.8 26.6 26.8 26.6 25.7 25.9

SMigR: females 33.2 32.3 33.1 32.9 32.8 32.3 31.3 30.8 31.2 31.0 29.3 28.5 28.1 27.8 27.7 27.4 27.6 27.3 26.5 26.6

Migrants input * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *


Male 1,244 1,367 1,614 1,605 1,173 1,173 1,173 1,173 1,173 1,173 1,173 1,173 1,173 1,173 1,173 1,173 1,173 1,173 1,173 1,173

Female 1,431 1,456 1,440 1,735 968 968 968 968 968 968 968 968 968 968 968 968 968 968 968 968

All 2,676 2,822 3,055 3,340 2,141 2,141 2,141 2,141 2,141 2,141 2,141 2,141 2,141 2,141 2,141 2,141 2,141 2,141 2,141 2,141

Migrants input * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *


Male 1,543 1,562 1,746 1,980 1,040 1,039 1,038 1,037 1,037 1,037 1,038 1,038 1,038 1,039 1,040 1,040 1,041 1,042 1,042 1,043

Female 1,200 1,535 1,893 1,738 828 829 830 831 831 831 830 830 830 829 828 828 827 826 826 825

All 2,743 3,097 3,639 3,717 1,868 1,868 1,868 1,868 1,868 1,868 1,868 1,868 1,868 1,868 1,868 1,868 1,868 1,868 1,868 1,868

SMigR: males 114.6 114.8 128.0 144.5 75.8 74.2 72.9 71.6 70.4 69.6 69.1 68.2 67.4 66.5 65.8 65.1 64.4 63.8 63.2 62.4

SMigR: females 111.3 140.5 172.7 158.4 75.5 74.1 72.9 71.7 70.6 69.9 69.4 68.6 67.8 67.0 66.2 65.4 64.8 64.2 63.5 62.7

Migrants input * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *


UK +4,337 +4,232 +4,268 +4,268 +4,216 +4,221 +4,867 +4,910 +4,111 +4,039 +5,663 +6,183 +6,229 +6,127 +5,801 +5,641 +4,970 +4,946 +5,611 +4,987 +99,628 +4,981

Overseas -67 -274 -585 -377 +273 +273 +273 +273 +273 +273 +273 +273 +273 +273 +273 +273 +273 +273 +273 +273 +3,064 +153


Natural change -304 +196 -278 +125 +209 +355 +480 +602 +733 +828 +892 +969 +1,041 +1,100 +1,137 +1,147 +1,138 +1,105 +1,066 +1,036 +13,578 +679

Net migration +4,270 +3,958 +3,683 +3,891 +4,489 +4,494 +5,140 +5,183 +4,384 +4,312 +5,936 +6,456 +6,502 +6,400 +6,074 +5,914 +5,243 +5,219 +5,884 +5,260 +102,692 +5,135

Net change +3,966 +4,154 +3,405 +4,016 +4,697 +4,850 +5,620 +5,785 +5,117 +5,140 +6,828 +7,426 +7,543 +7,499 +7,211 +7,061 +6,381 +6,325 +6,950 +6,296 +116,270 +5,814

Crude Birth Rate /000 10.17 10.72 10.32 10.49 10.51 10.53 10.65 10.75 10.89 10.97 11.00 11.06 11.12 11.17 11.21 11.22 11.21 11.19 11.15 11.14

Crude Death Rate /000 10.74 10.35 10.83 10.25 10.13 9.89 9.79 9.68 9.60 9.52 9.46 9.41 9.37 9.35 9.34 9.36 9.39 9.43 9.48 9.53




2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030

0-4 27,010 27,565 28,255 28,860 29,156 29,661 29,855 30,144 30,578 31,271 31,765 32,368 32,976 33,578 34,136 34,650 35,130 35,530 35,880 36,226 36,513 9,503 475

5-10 31,730 31,683 32,429 33,140 34,126 34,883 35,952 36,811 37,417 37,925 38,508 39,149 39,575 40,025 40,649 41,499 42,152 42,785 43,379 43,984 44,507 12,777 639

11-15 31,002 30,727 30,116 29,292 28,744 28,265 28,071 28,423 29,220 29,893 30,613 31,386 32,222 32,920 33,650 34,039 34,601 34,856 35,134 35,589 36,265 5,263 263

16-17 12,940 12,641 12,735 12,926 12,846 12,549 12,263 11,878 11,483 11,269 11,427 11,695 12,127 12,698 12,867 12,999 13,288 13,738 14,186 14,235 14,058 1,118 56

18-59Female, 64Male 291,774 292,821 292,071 291,672 291,798 294,030 296,082 298,440 300,558 301,872 303,021 305,330 307,874 310,425 312,935 315,525 317,585 319,409 321,259 323,836 326,230 34,456 1,723

60/65 -74 82,244 84,421 87,494 89,922 92,074 93,150 94,310 95,027 95,115 94,687 94,212 93,721 91,841 91,146 91,182 91,590 92,623 93,789 94,979 96,339 97,693 15,449 772

75-84 37,545 37,981 38,590 39,079 39,784 40,422 40,884 41,878 43,578 45,778 47,609 49,640 53,305 55,834 57,847 59,352 60,632 61,237 61,376 61,175 60,767 23,222 1,161

85+ 15,549 15,921 16,224 16,428 16,807 17,074 17,465 17,901 18,338 18,709 19,388 20,082 20,879 21,715 22,574 23,397 24,101 25,149 26,624 28,384 30,032 14,483 724

Total 529,794 533,760 537,914 541,319 545,335 550,032 554,882 560,502 566,287 571,404 576,544 583,372 590,798 598,341 605,841 613,051 620,112 626,493 632,818 639,768 646,064 116,270 5,814


0-15 / 16-65 0.27 0.27 0.28 0.28 0.28 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.30 0.30 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.32

65+ / 16-65 0.35 0.36 0.37 0.39 0.40 0.40 0.41 0.41 0.42 0.42 0.42 0.43 0.43 0.43 0.44 0.44 0.44 0.45 0.45 0.46 0.46

0-15 and 65+ / 16-65 0.62 0.63 0.65 0.67 0.68 0.69 0.70 0.70 0.71 0.72 0.73 0.73 0.74 0.74 0.75 0.75 0.76 0.76 0.77 0.78 0.78

Median age males 43.1 43.2 43.5 43.8 44.0 44.0 43.9 43.8 43.7 43.4 43.2 42.8 42.5 42.3 42.1 41.9 41.7 41.6 41.5 41.4 41.3



Labour Force



previous year +1,230 -6,800 +9,400 +1,081 +2,318 +2,391 +2,322 +2,321 +2,320 +2,319 +2,318 +2,317 +2,315 +2,314 +2,313 +2,312 +2,311 +2,309 +2,308 +2,247


Change in over previous year +3,371 -1,400 +1,700 +1,953 +1,850 +1,908 +1,908 +1,908 +1,908 +1,908 +1,908 +1,908 +1,908 +1,908 +1,908 +1,908 +1,908 +1,908 +1,908 +1,908

Households


Change in User Defined over

previous year +1,410 +2,024 +1,871 +2,004 +1,973 +2,193 +2,509 +2,726 +2,543 +2,462 +3,093 +3,293 +3,326 +3,376 +3,225 +3,265 +3,023 +2,913 +3,154 +2,911


Change in over previous year +1,548 +2,222 +2,054 +2,200 +2,166 +2,408 +2,755 +2,992 +2,792 +2,703 +3,396 +3,616 +3,652 +3,706 +3,540 +3,584 +3,318 +3,198 +3,463 +3,196


Population Estimates and Forecasts Cornwall Scenario D: LEP Employment Growth



2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30

Births

Male 2,776 2,949 2,859 2,925 2,957 3,021 3,116 3,204 3,308 3,390 3,463 3,519 3,578 3,634 3,682 3,722 3,755 3,776 3,796 3,822

Female 2,630 2,794 2,708 2,772 2,802 2,862 2,952 3,036 3,134 3,212 3,281 3,334 3,389 3,442 3,489 3,526 3,557 3,578 3,596 3,621

All Births 5,407 5,743 5,567 5,697 5,759 5,883 6,068 6,240 6,441 6,601 6,744 6,853 6,967 7,076 7,171 7,248 7,312 7,354 7,391 7,443

TFR 1.92 2.02 1.95 2.00 2.02 1.99 1.98 1.97 1.97 1.97 1.97 1.97 1.97 1.97 1.97 1.97 1.97 1.97 1.97 1.97

Births input

Deaths

Male 2,704 2,635 2,797 2,696 2,692 2,688 2,695 2,700 2,716 2,732 2,759 2,781 2,811 2,847 2,888 2,932 2,978 3,026 3,073 3,125

Female 3,007 2,911 3,048 2,876 2,858 2,784 2,785 2,780 2,783 2,781 2,785 2,802 2,821 2,843 2,871 2,905 2,946 2,988 3,033 3,080

All deaths 5,711 5,547 5,845 5,572 5,550 5,472 5,480 5,479 5,498 5,514 5,544 5,583 5,632 5,691 5,759 5,838 5,924 6,014 6,106 6,204

SMR: males 103.2 98.3 101.5 95.2 92.5 90.2 88.2 86.0 84.0 82.1 80.4 78.7 77.1 75.7 74.5 73.3 72.2 71.2 70.2 69.3

SMR: females 105.0 100.0 103.2 96.8 94.6 91.0 89.5 87.7 86.0 84.1 82.2 80.7 79.1 77.7 76.3 75.0 73.8 72.7 71.6 70.6

SMR: persons 104.1 99.2 102.4 96.0 93.6 90.6 88.9 86.9 85.0 83.1 81.3 79.7 78.1 76.7 75.4 74.1 73.0 71.9 70.9 69.9




Deaths input


Male 10,085 9,914 10,186 10,200 10,809 10,782 10,954 10,982 10,800 10,795 10,650 10,805 10,829 10,811 10,734 10,693 10,524 10,515 10,678 10,519

Female 10,733 10,532 10,782 10,768 11,376 11,313 11,461 11,458 11,240 11,210 11,029 11,164 11,169 11,134 11,046 11,001 10,828 10,821 10,991 10,829

All 20,818 20,446 20,968 20,968 22,185 22,095 22,415 22,439 22,040 22,005 21,679 21,970 21,998 21,946 21,779 21,694 21,352 21,336 21,669 21,349

SMigR: males 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3

SMigR: females 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3

Migrants input * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *


Male 7,984 7,823 8,074 8,099 7,510 7,538 7,384 7,376 7,574 7,611 7,780 7,653 7,646 7,678 7,762 7,809 7,973 7,985 7,824 7,983

Female 8,497 8,391 8,626 8,601 7,973 8,035 7,869 7,852 8,054 8,052 8,209 8,045 8,024 8,044 8,127 8,165 8,343 8,347 8,175 8,336

All 16,481 16,214 16,700 16,700 15,483 15,573 15,253 15,229 15,628 15,663 15,989 15,698 15,670 15,722 15,889 15,974 16,316 16,332 15,999 16,319

SMigR: males 32.4 31.4 32.2 32.0 29.5 28.9 27.7 27.1 27.3 27.0 27.2 26.5 26.1 25.9 25.9 25.7 25.9 25.7 24.9 25.1

SMigR: females 33.2 32.3 33.1 32.9 30.3 29.9 28.7 28.0 28.3 27.9 28.2 27.4 27.0 26.7 26.7 26.5 26.7 26.4 25.6 25.7

Migrants input * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *


Male 1,244 1,367 1,614 1,605 1,173 1,173 1,173 1,173 1,173 1,173 1,173 1,173 1,173 1,173 1,173 1,173 1,173 1,173 1,173 1,173

Female 1,431 1,456 1,440 1,735 968 968 968 968 968 968 968 968 968 968 968 968 968 968 968 968

All 2,676 2,822 3,055 3,340 2,141 2,141 2,141 2,141 2,141 2,141 2,141 2,141 2,141 2,141 2,141 2,141 2,141 2,141 2,141 2,141

Migrants input * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *


Male 1,543 1,562 1,746 1,980 1,040 1,038 1,036 1,035 1,035 1,035 1,036 1,036 1,037 1,038 1,038 1,039 1,040 1,041 1,042 1,042

Female 1,200 1,535 1,893 1,738 828 830 832 833 833 833 832 832 831 830 830 829 828 827 826 826

All 2,743 3,097 3,639 3,717 1,868 1,868 1,868 1,868 1,868 1,868 1,868 1,868 1,868 1,868 1,868 1,868 1,868 1,868 1,868 1,868

SMigR: males 114.6 114.8 128.0 144.5 75.8 73.5 71.6 69.7 68.1 66.9 65.9 65.2 64.5 63.8 63.2 62.6 62.0 61.6 61.1 60.4

SMigR: females 111.3 140.5 172.7 158.4 75.5 73.4 71.6 69.8 68.2 67.1 66.2 65.6 64.9 64.3 63.6 63.0 62.5 62.0 61.4 60.7

Migrants input * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *


UK +4,337 +4,232 +4,268 +4,268 +6,703 +6,521 +7,162 +7,211 +6,411 +6,342 +5,690 +6,271 +6,327 +6,224 +5,890 +5,720 +5,035 +5,003 +5,669 +5,029 +114,315 +5,716

Overseas -67 -274 -585 -377 +273 +273 +273 +273 +273 +273 +273 +273 +273 +273 +273 +273 +273 +273 +273 +273 +3,064 +153


Natural change -304 +196 -278 +125 +209 +411 +588 +761 +943 +1,088 +1,200 +1,270 +1,335 +1,385 +1,412 +1,410 +1,388 +1,340 +1,285 +1,239 +17,004 +850

Net migration +4,270 +3,958 +3,683 +3,891 +6,976 +6,794 +7,435 +7,484 +6,684 +6,615 +5,963 +6,544 +6,600 +6,497 +6,163 +5,993 +5,308 +5,276 +5,942 +5,302 +117,379 +5,869

Net change +3,966 +4,154 +3,405 +4,016 +7,185 +7,206 +8,023 +8,245 +7,627 +7,703 +7,163 +7,814 +7,935 +7,882 +7,575 +7,403 +6,696 +6,617 +7,227 +6,541 +134,383 +6,719

Crude Birth Rate /000 10.17 10.72 10.32 10.49 10.49 10.58 10.76 10.91 11.11 11.24 11.34 11.38 11.42 11.45 11.46 11.44 11.42 11.36 11.30 11.26

Crude Death Rate /000 10.74 10.35 10.83 10.25 10.11 9.84 9.72 9.58 9.48 9.39 9.32 9.27 9.23 9.21 9.20 9.22 9.25 9.29 9.34 9.39




2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030

0-4 27,010 27,565 28,255 28,860 29,156 29,807 30,177 30,676 31,349 32,313 33,104 33,863 34,586 35,265 35,863 36,381 36,830 37,191 37,496 37,791 38,021 11,011 551

5-10 31,730 31,683 32,429 33,140 34,126 35,002 36,198 37,195 37,951 38,620 39,375 40,111 40,651 41,233 42,005 43,018 43,844 44,609 45,297 45,960 46,507 14,777 739

11-15 31,002 30,727 30,116 29,292 28,744 28,335 28,212 28,641 29,526 30,298 31,125 31,943 32,828 33,576 34,357 34,794 35,407 35,731 36,098 36,662 37,462 6,460 323

16-17 12,940 12,641 12,735 12,926 12,846 12,584 12,322 11,963 11,595 11,407 11,598 11,874 12,323 12,915 13,098 13,246 13,551 14,023 14,493 14,558 14,394 1,454 73

18-59Female, 64Male 291,774 292,821 292,071 291,672 291,798 295,925 299,708 303,772 307,579 310,561 313,356 315,581 318,096 320,638 323,155 325,758 327,831 329,668 331,534 334,142 336,565 44,791 2,240

60/65 -74 82,244 84,421 87,494 89,922 92,074 93,296 94,608 95,488 95,750 95,503 95,220 94,797 92,969 92,334 92,431 92,902 94,002 95,234 96,487 97,908 99,321 17,077 854

75-84 37,545 37,981 38,590 39,079 39,784 40,470 40,981 42,029 43,790 46,062 47,973 50,043 53,766 56,346 58,412 59,964 61,289 61,932 62,106 61,936 61,554 24,009 1,200

85+ 15,549 15,921 16,224 16,428 16,807 17,101 17,520 17,985 18,453 18,857 19,571 20,275 21,081 21,927 22,796 23,629 24,342 25,403 26,897 28,680 30,352 14,803 740

Total 529,794 533,760 537,914 541,319 545,335 552,520 559,725 567,749 575,993 583,620 591,323 598,486 606,300 614,235 622,117 629,692 637,095 643,791 650,408 657,635 664,177 134,383 6,719


0-15 / 16-65 0.27 0.27 0.28 0.28 0.28 0.28 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.33

65+ / 16-65 0.35 0.36 0.37 0.39 0.40 0.40 0.41 0.41 0.41 0.41 0.41 0.42 0.42 0.42 0.43 0.43 0.43 0.44 0.44 0.45 0.45

0-15 and 65+ / 16-65 0.62 0.63 0.65 0.67 0.68 0.69 0.69 0.70 0.70 0.71 0.72 0.72 0.73 0.73 0.74 0.75 0.75 0.76 0.77 0.77 0.78

Median age males 43.1 43.2 43.5 43.8 44.0 43.9 43.7 43.6 43.3 42.9 42.6 42.2 42.0 41.8 41.6 41.4 41.2 41.1 41.1 41.0 41.0



Labour Force



previous year +1,230 -6,800 +9,400 +1,081 +3,825 +3,825 +3,755 +3,753 +3,751 +3,749 +2,359 +2,358 +2,357 +2,356 +2,355 +2,353 +2,352 +2,351 +2,350 +2,286



year +3,371 -1,400 +1,700 +1,953 +3,052 +3,052 +3,052 +3,052 +3,052 +3,052 +1,943 +1,943 +1,943 +1,943 +1,943 +1,943 +1,943 +1,943 +1,943 +1,943

Households



previous year +1,410 +2,024 +1,871 +2,004 +2,818 +3,034 +3,387 +3,489 +3,322 +3,270 +3,136 +3,306 +3,313 +3,334 +3,185 +3,219 +2,967 +2,844 +3,072 +2,815



previous year +1,548 +2,222 +2,054 +2,200 +3,093 +3,331 +3,719 +3,830 +3,647 +3,589 +3,443 +3,629 +3,637 +3,660 +3,496 +3,534 +3,257 +3,122 +3,372 +3,091


Population Estimates and Forecasts Cornwall Scenario Di: Partial Catch-up Sensitivity for LEP Employment Growth



2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30

Births

Male 2,776 2,949 2,859 2,925 2,957 3,021 3,116 3,204 3,308 3,390 3,463 3,519 3,578 3,634 3,682 3,722 3,755 3,776 3,796 3,822

Female 2,630 2,794 2,708 2,772 2,802 2,862 2,952 3,036 3,134 3,212 3,281 3,334 3,389 3,442 3,489 3,526 3,557 3,578 3,596 3,621

All Births 5,407 5,743 5,567 5,697 5,759 5,883 6,068 6,240 6,441 6,601 6,744 6,853 6,967 7,076 7,171 7,248 7,312 7,354 7,391 7,443

TFR 1.92 2.02 1.95 2.00 2.02 1.99 1.98 1.97 1.97 1.97 1.97 1.97 1.97 1.97 1.97 1.97 1.97 1.97 1.97 1.97

Births input

Deaths

Male 2,704 2,635 2,797 2,696 2,692 2,688 2,695 2,700 2,716 2,732 2,759 2,781 2,811 2,847 2,888 2,932 2,978 3,026 3,073 3,125

Female 3,007 2,911 3,048 2,876 2,858 2,784 2,785 2,780 2,783 2,781 2,785 2,802 2,821 2,843 2,871 2,905 2,946 2,988 3,033 3,080

All deaths 5,711 5,547 5,845 5,572 5,550 5,472 5,480 5,479 5,498 5,514 5,544 5,583 5,632 5,691 5,759 5,838 5,924 6,014 6,106 6,204

SMR: males 103.2 98.3 101.5 95.2 92.5 90.2 88.2 86.0 84.0 82.1 80.4 78.7 77.1 75.7 74.5 73.3 72.2 71.2 70.2 69.3

SMR: females 105.0 100.0 103.2 96.8 94.6 91.0 89.5 87.7 86.0 84.1 82.2 80.7 79.1 77.7 76.3 75.0 73.8 72.7 71.6 70.6

SMR: persons 104.1 99.2 102.4 96.0 93.6 90.6 88.9 86.9 85.0 83.1 81.3 79.7 78.1 76.7 75.4 74.1 73.0 71.9 70.9 69.9




Deaths input


Male 10,085 9,914 10,186 10,200 10,809 10,782 10,954 10,982 10,800 10,795 10,650 10,805 10,829 10,811 10,734 10,693 10,524 10,515 10,678 10,519

Female 10,733 10,532 10,782 10,768 11,376 11,313 11,461 11,458 11,240 11,210 11,029 11,164 11,169 11,134 11,046 11,001 10,828 10,821 10,991 10,829

All 20,818 20,446 20,968 20,968 22,185 22,095 22,415 22,439 22,040 22,005 21,679 21,970 21,998 21,946 21,779 21,694 21,352 21,336 21,669 21,349

SMigR: males 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3

SMigR: females 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3

Migrants input * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *


Male 7,984 7,823 8,074 8,099 7,510 7,538 7,384 7,376 7,574 7,611 7,780 7,653 7,646 7,678 7,762 7,809 7,973 7,985 7,824 7,983

Female 8,497 8,391 8,626 8,601 7,973 8,035 7,869 7,852 8,054 8,052 8,209 8,045 8,024 8,044 8,127 8,165 8,343 8,347 8,175 8,336

All 16,481 16,214 16,700 16,700 15,483 15,573 15,253 15,229 15,628 15,663 15,989 15,698 15,670 15,722 15,889 15,974 16,316 16,332 15,999 16,319

SMigR: males 32.4 31.4 32.2 32.0 29.5 28.9 27.7 27.1 27.3 27.0 27.2 26.5 26.1 25.9 25.9 25.7 25.9 25.7 24.9 25.1

SMigR: females 33.2 32.3 33.1 32.9 30.3 29.9 28.7 28.0 28.3 27.9 28.2 27.4 27.0 26.7 26.7 26.5 26.7 26.4 25.6 25.7

Migrants input * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *


Male 1,244 1,367 1,614 1,605 1,173 1,173 1,173 1,173 1,173 1,173 1,173 1,173 1,173 1,173 1,173 1,173 1,173 1,173 1,173 1,173

Female 1,431 1,456 1,440 1,735 968 968 968 968 968 968 968 968 968 968 968 968 968 968 968 968

All 2,676 2,822 3,055 3,340 2,141 2,141 2,141 2,141 2,141 2,141 2,141 2,141 2,141 2,141 2,141 2,141 2,141 2,141 2,141 2,141

Migrants input * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *


Male 1,543 1,562 1,746 1,980 1,040 1,038 1,036 1,035 1,035 1,035 1,036 1,036 1,037 1,038 1,038 1,039 1,040 1,041 1,042 1,042

Female 1,200 1,535 1,893 1,738 828 830 832 833 833 833 832 832 831 830 830 829 828 827 826 826

All 2,743 3,097 3,639 3,717 1,868 1,868 1,868 1,868 1,868 1,868 1,868 1,868 1,868 1,868 1,868 1,868 1,868 1,868 1,868 1,868

SMigR: males 114.6 114.8 128.0 144.5 75.8 73.5 71.6 69.7 68.1 66.9 65.9 65.2 64.5 63.8 63.2 62.6 62.0 61.6 61.1 60.4

SMigR: females 111.3 140.5 172.7 158.4 75.5 73.4 71.6 69.8 68.2 67.1 66.2 65.6 64.9 64.3 63.6 63.0 62.5 62.0 61.4 60.7

Migrants input * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *


UK +4,337 +4,232 +4,268 +4,268 +6,703 +6,521 +7,162 +7,211 +6,411 +6,342 +5,690 +6,271 +6,327 +6,224 +5,890 +5,720 +5,035 +5,003 +5,669 +5,029 +114,315 +5,716

Overseas -67 -274 -585 -377 +273 +273 +273 +273 +273 +273 +273 +273 +273 +273 +273 +273 +273 +273 +273 +273 +3,064 +153


Natural change -304 +196 -278 +125 +209 +411 +588 +761 +943 +1,088 +1,200 +1,270 +1,335 +1,385 +1,412 +1,410 +1,388 +1,340 +1,285 +1,239 +17,004 +850

Net migration +4,270 +3,958 +3,683 +3,891 +6,976 +6,794 +7,435 +7,484 +6,684 +6,615 +5,963 +6,544 +6,600 +6,497 +6,163 +5,993 +5,308 +5,276 +5,942 +5,302 +117,379 +5,869

Net change +3,966 +4,154 +3,405 +4,016 +7,185 +7,206 +8,023 +8,245 +7,627 +7,703 +7,163 +7,814 +7,935 +7,882 +7,575 +7,403 +6,696 +6,617 +7,227 +6,541 +134,383 +6,719

Crude Birth Rate /000 10.17 10.72 10.32 10.49 10.49 10.58 10.76 10.91 11.11 11.24 11.34 11.38 11.42 11.45 11.46 11.44 11.42 11.36 11.30 11.26

Crude Death Rate /000 10.74 10.35 10.83 10.25 10.11 9.84 9.72 9.58 9.48 9.39 9.32 9.27 9.23 9.21 9.20 9.22 9.25 9.29 9.34 9.39




2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030

0-4 27,010 27,565 28,255 28,860 29,156 29,807 30,177 30,676 31,349 32,313 33,104 33,863 34,586 35,265 35,863 36,381 36,830 37,191 37,496 37,791 38,021 11,011 551

5-10 31,730 31,683 32,429 33,140 34,126 35,002 36,198 37,195 37,951 38,620 39,375 40,111 40,651 41,233 42,005 43,018 43,844 44,609 45,297 45,960 46,507 14,777 739

11-15 31,002 30,727 30,116 29,292 28,744 28,335 28,212 28,641 29,526 30,298 31,125 31,943 32,828 33,576 34,357 34,794 35,407 35,731 36,098 36,662 37,462 6,460 323

16-17 12,940 12,641 12,735 12,926 12,846 12,584 12,322 11,963 11,595 11,407 11,598 11,874 12,323 12,915 13,098 13,246 13,551 14,023 14,493 14,558 14,394 1,454 73

18-59Female, 64Male 291,774 292,821 292,071 291,672 291,798 295,925 299,708 303,772 307,579 310,561 313,356 315,581 318,096 320,638 323,155 325,758 327,831 329,668 331,534 334,142 336,565 44,791 2,240

60/65 -74 82,244 84,421 87,494 89,922 92,074 93,296 94,608 95,488 95,750 95,503 95,220 94,797 92,969 92,334 92,431 92,902 94,002 95,234 96,487 97,908 99,321 17,077 854

75-84 37,545 37,981 38,590 39,079 39,784 40,470 40,981 42,029 43,790 46,062 47,973 50,043 53,766 56,346 58,412 59,964 61,289 61,932 62,106 61,936 61,554 24,009 1,200

85+ 15,549 15,921 16,224 16,428 16,807 17,101 17,520 17,985 18,453 18,857 19,571 20,275 21,081 21,927 22,796 23,629 24,342 25,403 26,897 28,680 30,352 14,803 740

Total 529,794 533,760 537,914 541,319 545,335 552,520 559,725 567,749 575,993 583,620 591,323 598,486 606,300 614,235 622,117 629,692 637,095 643,791 650,408 657,635 664,177 134,383 6,719


0-15 / 16-65 0.27 0.27 0.28 0.28 0.28 0.28 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.33

65+ / 16-65 0.35 0.36 0.37 0.39 0.40 0.40 0.41 0.41 0.41 0.41 0.41 0.42 0.42 0.42 0.43 0.43 0.43 0.44 0.44 0.45 0.45

0-15 and 65+ / 16-65 0.62 0.63 0.65 0.67 0.68 0.69 0.69 0.70 0.70 0.71 0.72 0.72 0.73 0.73 0.74 0.75 0.75 0.76 0.77 0.77 0.78

Median age males 43.1 43.2 43.5 43.8 44.0 43.9 43.7 43.6 43.3 42.9 42.6 42.2 42.0 41.8 41.6 41.4 41.2 41.1 41.1 41.0 41.0



Labour Force



previous year +1,230 -6,800 +9,400 +1,081 +3,825 +3,825 +3,755 +3,753 +3,751 +3,749 +2,359 +2,358 +2,357 +2,356 +2,355 +2,353 +2,352 +2,351 +2,350 +2,286



Households



previous year +1,410 +2,024 +1,871 +2,004 +2,818 +3,034 +3,387 +3,645 +3,495 +3,446 +3,319 +3,507 +3,522 +3,556 +3,390 +3,418 +3,155 +3,032 +3,267 +3,014



previous year +1,548 +2,222 +2,054 +2,200 +3,093 +3,331 +3,719 +4,002 +3,836 +3,783 +3,644 +3,850 +3,867 +3,903 +3,722 +3,753 +3,464 +3,329 +3,587 +3,309


Population Estimates and Forecasts Cornwall Scenario Dii(a): Continuation of LEP Strategy Sensitivity Test



2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30

Births

Male 2,776 2,949 2,859 2,925 2,957 3,021 3,116 3,204 3,308 3,390 3,463 3,550 3,639 3,726 3,804 3,873 3,935 3,984 4,030 4,083

Female 2,630 2,794 2,708 2,772 2,802 2,862 2,952 3,036 3,134 3,212 3,281 3,363 3,448 3,530 3,604 3,670 3,728 3,775 3,818 3,868

All Births 5,407 5,743 5,567 5,697 5,759 5,883 6,068 6,240 6,441 6,601 6,744 6,913 7,087 7,255 7,409 7,543 7,663 7,759 7,849 7,951

TFR 1.92 2.02 1.95 2.00 2.02 1.99 1.98 1.97 1.97 1.97 1.97 1.97 1.97 1.97 1.97 1.97 1.97 1.97 1.97 1.97

Births input

Deaths

Male 2,704 2,635 2,797 2,696 2,692 2,688 2,695 2,700 2,716 2,732 2,759 2,785 2,819 2,860 2,906 2,955 3,006 3,059 3,112 3,169

Female 3,007 2,911 3,048 2,876 2,858 2,784 2,785 2,780 2,783 2,781 2,785 2,806 2,829 2,856 2,888 2,927 2,972 3,019 3,070 3,122

All deaths 5,711 5,547 5,845 5,572 5,550 5,472 5,480 5,479 5,498 5,514 5,544 5,591 5,649 5,716 5,794 5,882 5,978 6,078 6,181 6,291

SMR: males 103.2 98.3 101.5 95.2 92.5 90.2 88.2 86.0 84.0 82.1 80.4 78.7 77.1 75.7 74.5 73.3 72.2 71.2 70.2 69.3

SMR: females 105.0 100.0 103.2 96.8 94.6 91.0 89.5 87.7 86.0 84.1 82.2 80.7 79.1 77.7 76.3 75.0 73.8 72.7 71.6 70.6

SMR: persons 104.1 99.2 102.4 96.0 93.6 90.6 88.9 86.9 85.0 83.1 81.3 79.7 78.1 76.7 75.4 74.1 73.0 71.9 70.9 69.9




Deaths input


Male 10,085 9,914 10,186 10,200 10,809 10,782 10,954 10,982 10,800 10,795 11,211 11,357 11,380 11,365 11,291 11,251 11,080 11,071 11,236 11,076

Female 10,733 10,532 10,782 10,768 11,376 11,313 11,461 11,458 11,240 11,210 11,611 11,734 11,738 11,705 11,618 11,574 11,399 11,393 11,565 11,402

All 20,818 20,446 20,968 20,968 22,185 22,095 22,415 22,439 22,040 22,005 22,822 23,091 23,118 23,070 22,909 22,825 22,479 22,464 22,801 22,477

SMigR: males 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3

SMigR: females 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3

Migrants input * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *


Male 7,984 7,823 8,074 8,099 7,510 7,538 7,384 7,376 7,574 7,611 7,224 7,101 7,090 7,117 7,196 7,242 7,407 7,418 7,255 7,416

Female 8,497 8,391 8,626 8,601 7,973 8,035 7,869 7,852 8,054 8,052 7,622 7,477 7,460 7,481 7,563 7,601 7,782 7,786 7,611 7,774

All 16,481 16,214 16,700 16,700 15,483 15,573 15,253 15,229 15,628 15,663 14,846 14,577 14,550 14,598 14,759 14,843 15,189 15,204 14,867 15,191

SMigR: males 32.4 31.4 32.2 32.0 29.5 28.9 27.7 27.1 27.3 27.0 25.3 24.4 23.9 23.6 23.4 23.2 23.3 23.0 22.1 22.2

SMigR: females 33.2 32.3 33.1 32.9 30.3 29.9 28.7 28.0 28.3 27.9 26.1 25.2 24.7 24.4 24.2 23.9 24.1 23.7 22.8 22.9

Migrants input * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *


Male 1,244 1,367 1,614 1,605 1,173 1,173 1,173 1,173 1,173 1,173 1,173 1,173 1,173 1,173 1,173 1,173 1,173 1,173 1,173 1,173

Female 1,431 1,456 1,440 1,735 968 968 968 968 968 968 968 968 968 968 968 968 968 968 968 968

All 2,676 2,822 3,055 3,340 2,141 2,141 2,141 2,141 2,141 2,141 2,141 2,141 2,141 2,141 2,141 2,141 2,141 2,141 2,141 2,141

Migrants input * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *


Male 1,543 1,562 1,746 1,980 1,040 1,038 1,036 1,035 1,035 1,035 1,036 1,035 1,036 1,036 1,037 1,038 1,038 1,039 1,039 1,040

Female 1,200 1,535 1,893 1,738 828 830 832 833 833 833 832 833 832 832 831 830 830 829 829 828

All 2,743 3,097 3,639 3,717 1,868 1,868 1,868 1,868 1,868 1,868 1,868 1,868 1,868 1,868 1,868 1,868 1,868 1,868 1,868 1,868

SMigR: males 114.6 114.8 128.0 144.5 75.8 73.5 71.6 69.7 68.1 66.9 65.9 64.7 63.5 62.4 61.4 60.5 59.6 58.8 58.0 57.1

SMigR: females 111.3 140.5 172.7 158.4 75.5 73.4 71.6 69.8 68.2 67.1 66.2 65.1 63.9 62.8 61.8 60.9 60.0 59.2 58.4 57.4

Migrants input * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *


UK +4,337 +4,232 +4,268 +4,268 +6,703 +6,521 +7,162 +7,211 +6,411 +6,342 +7,976 +8,513 +8,569 +8,472 +8,150 +7,982 +7,290 +7,261 +7,934 +7,287 +136,890 +6,845

Overseas -67 -274 -585 -377 +273 +273 +273 +273 +273 +273 +273 +273 +273 +273 +273 +273 +273 +273 +273 +273 +3,064 +153


Natural change -304 +196 -278 +125 +209 +411 +588 +761 +943 +1,088 +1,200 +1,322 +1,438 +1,539 +1,615 +1,662 +1,685 +1,681 +1,667 +1,660 +19,209 +960

Net migration +4,270 +3,958 +3,683 +3,891 +6,976 +6,794 +7,435 +7,484 +6,684 +6,615 +8,249 +8,786 +8,842 +8,745 +8,423 +8,255 +7,563 +7,534 +8,207 +7,560 +139,954 +6,998

Net change +3,966 +4,154 +3,405 +4,016 +7,185 +7,206 +8,023 +8,245 +7,627 +7,703 +9,449 +10,109 +10,280 +10,284 +10,038 +9,917 +9,248 +9,215 +9,875 +9,220 +159,164 +7,958

Crude Birth Rate /000 10.17 10.72 10.32 10.49 10.49 10.58 10.76 10.91 11.11 11.24 11.31 11.41 11.50 11.58 11.64 11.67 11.68 11.66 11.63 11.62

Crude Death Rate /000 10.74 10.35 10.83 10.25 10.11 9.84 9.72 9.58 9.48 9.39 9.30 9.23 9.17 9.13 9.10 9.10 9.11 9.14 9.16 9.19




2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030

0-4 27,010 27,565 28,255 28,860 29,156 29,807 30,177 30,676 31,349 32,313 33,104 34,000 34,897 35,784 36,618 37,399 38,136 38,779 39,360 39,924 40,413 13,403 670

5-10 31,730 31,683 32,429 33,140 34,126 35,002 36,198 37,195 37,951 38,620 39,375 40,226 40,890 41,606 42,526 43,701 44,697 45,666 46,590 47,516 48,348 16,618 831

11-15 31,002 30,727 30,116 29,292 28,744 28,335 28,212 28,641 29,526 30,298 31,125 32,012 32,974 33,805 34,675 35,208 35,923 36,354 36,834 37,521 38,457 7,455 373

16-17 12,940 12,641 12,735 12,926 12,846 12,584 12,322 11,963 11,595 11,407 11,598 11,903 12,377 12,998 13,214 13,393 13,731 14,242 14,755 14,860 14,733 1,793 90

18-59Female, 64Male 291,774 292,821 292,071 291,672 291,798 295,925 299,708 303,772 307,579 310,561 313,356 317,307 321,490 325,677 329,821 334,047 337,728 341,156 344,606 348,801 352,807 61,033 3,052

60/65 -74 82,244 84,421 87,494 89,922 92,074 93,296 94,608 95,488 95,750 95,503 95,220 94,928 93,237 92,749 93,007 93,651 94,939 96,371 97,834 99,477 101,118 18,874 944

75-84 37,545 37,981 38,590 39,079 39,784 40,470 40,981 42,029 43,790 46,062 47,973 50,094 53,876 56,522 58,659 60,289 61,697 62,426 62,687 62,604 62,314 24,769 1,238

85+ 15,549 15,921 16,224 16,428 16,807 17,101 17,520 17,985 18,453 18,857 19,571 20,303 21,140 22,020 22,925 23,796 24,549 25,653 27,197 29,035 30,766 15,217 761

Total 529,794 533,760 537,914 541,319 545,335 552,520 559,725 567,749 575,993 583,620 591,323 600,772 610,881 621,161 631,445 641,483 651,400 660,648 669,863 679,738 688,958 159,164 7,958


0-15 / 16-65 0.27 0.27 0.28 0.28 0.28 0.28 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.33

65+ / 16-65 0.35 0.36 0.37 0.39 0.40 0.40 0.41 0.41 0.41 0.41 0.41 0.42 0.42 0.42 0.42 0.42 0.43 0.43 0.43 0.44 0.44

0-15 and 65+ / 16-65 0.62 0.63 0.65 0.67 0.68 0.69 0.69 0.70 0.70 0.71 0.72 0.72 0.72 0.73 0.73 0.74 0.74 0.75 0.75 0.76 0.77

Median age males 43.1 43.2 43.5 43.8 44.0 43.9 43.7 43.6 43.3 42.9 42.6 42.1 41.8 41.5 41.3 41.0 40.8 40.6 40.5 40.4 40.3



Labour Force



previous year +1,230 -6,800 +9,400 +1,081 +3,825 +3,825 +3,755 +3,753 +3,751 +3,749 +3,747 +3,745 +3,744 +3,742 +3,740 +3,738 +3,736 +3,734 +3,732 +3,665



Households



previous year +1,410 +2,024 +1,871 +2,004 +2,818 +3,034 +3,387 +3,489 +3,322 +3,270 +3,928 +4,135 +4,177 +4,231 +4,108 +4,169 +3,939 +3,834 +4,081 +3,832



previous year +1,548 +2,222 +2,054 +2,200 +3,093 +3,331 +3,719 +3,830 +3,647 +3,589 +4,312 +4,539 +4,586 +4,645 +4,509 +4,577 +4,324 +4,209 +4,480 +4,207


Population Estimates and Forecasts Cornwall Scenario Dii(b): Partial Catch-up and Continuation of LEP Strategy Sensitivity Test



2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30

Births

Male 2,776 2,949 2,859 2,925 2,957 3,021 3,116 3,204 3,308 3,390 3,463 3,550 3,639 3,726 3,804 3,873 3,935 3,984 4,030 4,083

Female 2,630 2,794 2,708 2,772 2,802 2,862 2,952 3,036 3,134 3,212 3,281 3,363 3,448 3,530 3,604 3,670 3,728 3,775 3,818 3,868

All Births 5,407 5,743 5,567 5,697 5,759 5,883 6,068 6,240 6,441 6,601 6,744 6,913 7,087 7,255 7,409 7,543 7,663 7,759 7,849 7,951

TFR 1.92 2.02 1.95 2.00 2.02 1.99 1.98 1.97 1.97 1.97 1.97 1.97 1.97 1.97 1.97 1.97 1.97 1.97 1.97 1.97

Births input

Deaths

Male 2,704 2,635 2,797 2,696 2,692 2,688 2,695 2,700 2,716 2,732 2,759 2,785 2,819 2,860 2,906 2,955 3,006 3,059 3,112 3,169

Female 3,007 2,911 3,048 2,876 2,858 2,784 2,785 2,780 2,783 2,781 2,785 2,806 2,829 2,856 2,888 2,927 2,972 3,019 3,070 3,122

All deaths 5,711 5,547 5,845 5,572 5,550 5,472 5,480 5,479 5,498 5,514 5,544 5,591 5,649 5,716 5,794 5,882 5,978 6,078 6,181 6,291

SMR: males 103.2 98.3 101.5 95.2 92.5 90.2 88.2 86.0 84.0 82.1 80.4 78.7 77.1 75.7 74.5 73.3 72.2 71.2 70.2 69.3

SMR: females 105.0 100.0 103.2 96.8 94.6 91.0 89.5 87.7 86.0 84.1 82.2 80.7 79.1 77.7 76.3 75.0 73.8 72.7 71.6 70.6

SMR: persons 104.1 99.2 102.4 96.0 93.6 90.6 88.9 86.9 85.0 83.1 81.3 79.7 78.1 76.7 75.4 74.1 73.0 71.9 70.9 69.9




Deaths input


Male 10,085 9,914 10,186 10,200 10,809 10,782 10,954 10,982 10,800 10,795 11,211 11,357 11,380 11,365 11,291 11,251 11,080 11,071 11,236 11,076

Female 10,733 10,532 10,782 10,768 11,376 11,313 11,461 11,458 11,240 11,210 11,611 11,734 11,738 11,705 11,618 11,574 11,399 11,393 11,565 11,402

All 20,818 20,446 20,968 20,968 22,185 22,095 22,415 22,439 22,040 22,005 22,822 23,091 23,118 23,070 22,909 22,825 22,479 22,464 22,801 22,477

SMigR: males 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3

SMigR: females 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3

Migrants input * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *


Male 7,984 7,823 8,074 8,099 7,510 7,538 7,384 7,376 7,574 7,611 7,224 7,101 7,090 7,117 7,196 7,242 7,407 7,418 7,255 7,416

Female 8,497 8,391 8,626 8,601 7,973 8,035 7,869 7,852 8,054 8,052 7,622 7,477 7,460 7,481 7,563 7,601 7,782 7,786 7,611 7,774

All 16,481 16,214 16,700 16,700 15,483 15,573 15,253 15,229 15,628 15,663 14,846 14,577 14,550 14,598 14,759 14,843 15,189 15,204 14,867 15,191

SMigR: males 32.4 31.4 32.2 32.0 29.5 28.9 27.7 27.1 27.3 27.0 25.3 24.4 23.9 23.6 23.4 23.2 23.3 23.0 22.1 22.2

SMigR: females 33.2 32.3 33.1 32.9 30.3 29.9 28.7 28.0 28.3 27.9 26.1 25.2 24.7 24.4 24.2 23.9 24.1 23.7 22.8 22.9

Migrants input * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *


Male 1,244 1,367 1,614 1,605 1,173 1,173 1,173 1,173 1,173 1,173 1,173 1,173 1,173 1,173 1,173 1,173 1,173 1,173 1,173 1,173

Female 1,431 1,456 1,440 1,735 968 968 968 968 968 968 968 968 968 968 968 968 968 968 968 968

All 2,676 2,822 3,055 3,340 2,141 2,141 2,141 2,141 2,141 2,141 2,141 2,141 2,141 2,141 2,141 2,141 2,141 2,141 2,141 2,141

Migrants input * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *


Male 1,543 1,562 1,746 1,980 1,040 1,038 1,036 1,035 1,035 1,035 1,036 1,035 1,036 1,036 1,037 1,038 1,038 1,039 1,039 1,040

Female 1,200 1,535 1,893 1,738 828 830 832 833 833 833 832 833 832 832 831 830 830 829 829 828

All 2,743 3,097 3,639 3,717 1,868 1,868 1,868 1,868 1,868 1,868 1,868 1,868 1,868 1,868 1,868 1,868 1,868 1,868 1,868 1,868

SMigR: males 114.6 114.8 128.0 144.5 75.8 73.5 71.6 69.7 68.1 66.9 65.9 64.7 63.5 62.4 61.4 60.5 59.6 58.8 58.0 57.1

SMigR: females 111.3 140.5 172.7 158.4 75.5 73.4 71.6 69.8 68.2 67.1 66.2 65.1 63.9 62.8 61.8 60.9 60.0 59.2 58.4 57.4

Migrants input * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *


UK +4,337 +4,232 +4,268 +4,268 +6,703 +6,521 +7,162 +7,211 +6,411 +6,342 +7,976 +8,513 +8,569 +8,472 +8,150 +7,982 +7,290 +7,261 +7,934 +7,287 +136,890 +6,845

Overseas -67 -274 -585 -377 +273 +273 +273 +273 +273 +273 +273 +273 +273 +273 +273 +273 +273 +273 +273 +273 +3,064 +153


Natural change -304 +196 -278 +125 +209 +411 +588 +761 +943 +1,088 +1,200 +1,322 +1,438 +1,539 +1,615 +1,662 +1,685 +1,681 +1,667 +1,660 +19,209 +960

Net migration +4,270 +3,958 +3,683 +3,891 +6,976 +6,794 +7,435 +7,484 +6,684 +6,615 +8,249 +8,786 +8,842 +8,745 +8,423 +8,255 +7,563 +7,534 +8,207 +7,560 +139,954 +6,998

Net change +3,966 +4,154 +3,405 +4,016 +7,185 +7,206 +8,023 +8,245 +7,627 +7,703 +9,449 +10,109 +10,280 +10,284 +10,038 +9,917 +9,248 +9,215 +9,875 +9,220 +159,164 +7,958

Crude Birth Rate /000 10.17 10.72 10.32 10.49 10.49 10.58 10.76 10.91 11.11 11.24 11.31 11.41 11.50 11.58 11.64 11.67 11.68 11.66 11.63 11.62

Crude Death Rate /000 10.74 10.35 10.83 10.25 10.11 9.84 9.72 9.58 9.48 9.39 9.30 9.23 9.17 9.13 9.10 9.10 9.11 9.14 9.16 9.19




2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030

0-4 27,010 27,565 28,255 28,860 29,156 29,807 30,177 30,676 31,349 32,313 33,104 34,000 34,897 35,784 36,618 37,399 38,136 38,779 39,360 39,924 40,413 13,403 670

5-10 31,730 31,683 32,429 33,140 34,126 35,002 36,198 37,195 37,951 38,620 39,375 40,226 40,890 41,606 42,526 43,701 44,697 45,666 46,590 47,516 48,348 16,618 831

11-15 31,002 30,727 30,116 29,292 28,744 28,335 28,212 28,641 29,526 30,298 31,125 32,012 32,974 33,805 34,675 35,208 35,923 36,354 36,834 37,521 38,457 7,455 373

16-17 12,940 12,641 12,735 12,926 12,846 12,584 12,322 11,963 11,595 11,407 11,598 11,903 12,377 12,998 13,214 13,393 13,731 14,242 14,755 14,860 14,733 1,793 90

18-59Female, 64Male 291,774 292,821 292,071 291,672 291,798 295,925 299,708 303,772 307,579 310,561 313,356 317,307 321,490 325,677 329,821 334,047 337,728 341,156 344,606 348,801 352,807 61,033 3,052

60/65 -74 82,244 84,421 87,494 89,922 92,074 93,296 94,608 95,488 95,750 95,503 95,220 94,928 93,237 92,749 93,007 93,651 94,939 96,371 97,834 99,477 101,118 18,874 944

75-84 37,545 37,981 38,590 39,079 39,784 40,470 40,981 42,029 43,790 46,062 47,973 50,094 53,876 56,522 58,659 60,289 61,697 62,426 62,687 62,604 62,314 24,769 1,238

85+ 15,549 15,921 16,224 16,428 16,807 17,101 17,520 17,985 18,453 18,857 19,571 20,303 21,140 22,020 22,925 23,796 24,549 25,653 27,197 29,035 30,766 15,217 761

Total 529,794 533,760 537,914 541,319 545,335 552,520 559,725 567,749 575,993 583,620 591,323 600,772 610,881 621,161 631,445 641,483 651,400 660,648 669,863 679,738 688,958 159,164 7,958


0-15 / 16-65 0.27 0.27 0.28 0.28 0.28 0.28 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.33

65+ / 16-65 0.35 0.36 0.37 0.39 0.40 0.40 0.41 0.41 0.41 0.41 0.41 0.42 0.42 0.42 0.42 0.42 0.43 0.43 0.43 0.44 0.44

0-15 and 65+ / 16-65 0.62 0.63 0.65 0.67 0.68 0.69 0.69 0.70 0.70 0.71 0.72 0.72 0.72 0.73 0.73 0.74 0.74 0.75 0.75 0.76 0.77

Median age males 43.1 43.2 43.5 43.8 44.0 43.9 43.7 43.6 43.3 42.9 42.6 42.1 41.8 41.5 41.3 41.0 40.8 40.6 40.5 40.4 40.3



Labour Force



previous year +1,230 -6,800 +9,400 +1,081 +3,825 +3,825 +3,755 +3,753 +3,751 +3,749 +3,747 +3,745 +3,744 +3,742 +3,740 +3,738 +3,736 +3,734 +3,732 +3,665



year +3,371 -1,400 +1,700 +1,953 +3,052 +3,052 +3,052 +3,052 +3,052 +3,052 +3,052 +3,052 +3,052 +3,052 +3,052 +3,052 +3,052 +3,052 +3,052 +3,052

Households



previous year +1,410 +2,024 +1,871 +2,004 +2,818 +3,034 +3,387 +3,645 +3,495 +3,446 +4,117 +4,345 +4,399 +4,469 +4,332 +4,390 +4,150 +4,048 +4,304 +4,061



previous year +1,548 +2,222 +2,054 +2,200 +3,093 +3,331 +3,719 +4,002 +3,836 +3,783 +4,520 +4,770 +4,830 +4,907 +4,756 +4,819 +4,556 +4,444 +4,725 +4,458



10737655v5

Appendix 4 Experian Business Strategies Employment Projections for

Cornwall

Table 13.1 Experian Employment Forecasts for Cornwall

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2030 2015-30 change Average change p.a. (2015-30)

Employment (number of jobs) 237,550 238,830 237,550 243,100 253,720 255,570 284,190 28,620 1,908

Source: Experian Business Strategies, March 2015 publication


P2

responses 326 to 554 326 - cornwall council · need of 11,200 units, leaving an immediate shortfall...

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