Responding to Climate Change in the Chesapeake

BayPaula Jasinski

NOAA Chesapeake Bay OfficeNovember 2009

Overview

NOAA’s Role in Climate Change

Executive Order 13508 and Responding to Climate Change in the Chesapeake Bay Region

How can MACOORA assist in our efforts?

NOAA’s Role in Climate

Helping society understand, plan for, and respond to climate variability and change, focusing on 3 major themes:

Climate Observations and Monitoring to describe and understand the state of the climate system through integrated observations, monitoring, data stewardship;

Climate Research and Modeling to understand and predict climate variability and change in timeframes ranging from weeks to a century; and

Climate Information Services to improve the ability of society to plan and respond to climate variability and climate change.

Climate Projections for the Mid-Atlantic Region

Parameter 2030 2095 Confidence in Projection

Carbon dioxide (change ppmv)

+20 to +30 +50 to +120 Very high

Sea level (inches)

+4 to +12 +15 to +40 High

Temperature (0F change)

+1.8 to +2.7 +4.9 to +9.5 High

Precipitation (% change)

-1 to +8 +6 to +24 Medium

Runoff (% change)

-2 to +6 -4 to +27 Low

Temp and precipitation ranges from Hadley and CCC models for NE US

Runoff prediction for Susquehanna River Basin using water balance model forced with the CCC and Hadley models

Impacts to Bay Living Resources

Northward migration of species

Strong sensitivity of SAV to flow and temperature

Temperature-O2 synergistic impact on fish/shellfish

Over-wintering impacts positive (juvenile survival) and negative (pathogens)

Complex response of trophic interactions (e.g., bloom timing)

Coastal habitat inundation and increased salinity regimes

And more

Human HealthIncreased and prolonged heat wavesAdvantageous for disease & vectorsWater supply and contaminationSeptic system inundation

EconomicsFisheries, $1 B/yearTourism, $17 B/ year, including eco-tourism

~$1BAgriculture, $55 B/yearCoastal Vulnerability, $BillionsWaning Insurance Coverage

Socio-Economic Impact Examples

Chesapeake Inundation Prediction System

Tools like CIPS provide emergency managers and other planners the information they need to protect property and lives.

Increase access to this type of planning tool and include additional climate information

E.O. 13508 on Chesapeake Bay Restoration and Protection, signed May 12, 2009

The first-ever presidential directive on the Bay and the first environmental Executive Order by President Obama.

Established a Federal Leadership Committee, chaired by EPA, and with senior representatives from the departments of Agriculture, Commerce, Defense, Homeland Security, Interior and Transportation.

Calls for strategies to address water quality, public access, landscape conservation, climate change, scientific monitoring and the protection of living resources. Watershed wide in scope.

http://ExecutiveOrder.ChesapeakeBay.Net

Seven Topical 202 Reports (a) define the next generation of tools and actions to restore water

quality... and describe the changes to be made to regulations, programs, and policies ... (EPA)

(b) target resources ... including resources under the Food Security Act of 1985 as amended, the Clean Water Act, and other laws; (USDA)

(c) strengthen storm water management practices at Federal facilities and on Federal lands and develop storm water best practices guidance; (EPA)

(d) assess the impacts of a changing climate ...and develop a strategy for adapting natural resource programs and public infrastructure (DoC and DoI)

(e) expand public access to waters and open spaces ... and conserve landscapes and ecosystems ... (DoI and DoD)

(f) strengthen scientific support for decision-making... including expanded environmental research and monitoring and observing systems; (DoC and DoI)

(g) develop focused and coordinated habitat and research activities that protect and restore living resources and water quality ... (DoC and DoI)

Draft Major Federal Initiatives1. REDUCING POLLUTION AND RESTORING WATER QUALITY - EPA

2. CHESAPEAKE FARMS AND FORESTS FOR THE 21ST CENTURY-USDA

3. CHESAPEAKE TREASURED LANDSCAPE INITIATIVE-DOI WITH USDA, NOAA AND DOD

4. RESTORING HABITATS AND SUSTAINING SPECIES-NOAA AND DOI WITH EPA, USACE, DOD, AND USDA FOREST SERVICE

5. COORDINATE TOOLS AND SCIENCE FOR STRATEGIC DECISION-MAKING- DOI, NOAA WITH EPA, USACE, DOD, AND USDA

6. ADAPTING TO CLIMATE CHANGE- NOAA, DOI WITH EPA, DOD, AND USDA

7. FEDERAL LEADERSHIP BY EXAMPLE- DOD& EPA

8. PLANNING FOR LIVABLE COMMUNITIES-US DOT &EPA

203 STRATEGY TO BE FINALIZED BY MAY 2010

1. Coordinate climate change science and adaptation activities throughout the watershed, closely tying into existing regional federal climate programs. This effort will:

Establish a framework to support a concerted watershed-wide climate effort and integrate climate change concerns with Chesapeake Bay partners.

Assess vulnerability of human communities and habitats for fish and wildlife to sea-level rise and changing conditions in the watershed and develop policy, guidance, and tools to maintain resilience and sustainability of lands and habitats.

Monitor and assess ecosystem responses to climate change to document the effectiveness of adaptation strategies and prepare a research needs assessment to ensure critical information gaps are identified and targeted.

Adapting to Climate Change

Adapting to Climate Change

2. Implement climate change adaptation on federal lands and within federal agencies and programs.

Protect critical habitats and species through conservation and restoration, including pilot projects for adaptation response plans, targeted acquisition plans, development of incentives for conservation of critical habitats and species, and targeting federal conservation and restoration.

Establish adaptation guidance for federal programs, federally managed lands and federally financed state, local, and private lands and implement actions on highly vulnerable lands.

Enough Observations?

1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 201013

13.5

14

14.5

15

15.5

16

16.5

17

17.5

18

year

Tem

pera

ture

( C

)

VIMS pier

CBL pierBay average

Source: Climate Change and the Chesapeake Bay; STAC 2008

Long Term Temperature Data From Two Stations

How MACOORA Can HelpHelp address existing uncertainties including:

Are we monitoring climate change parameters in the right frequency, density, time series, and making that data available?

Are we detecting changes in water quality associated with increasing temperatures, sea levels, or precipitation changes?

What is the impact of sea-level rise on salinity and suspended solids?

What is CO2 variability in Bay and impacts on water chemistry ?

And by taking available data to develop tools that further our understanding of climate impacts

SummaryNOAA is a lead federal agency in

increasing our nation’s understanding of climate change, as well as developing decision support tools to guide responses;

Executive Order is a new driver in the Chesapeake Bay region and ensures that federal partners will collaborate on responding to climate change within the region;

Long-term regional observations are critical to enhance our ability to understand and respond to climate changes.