responding to climate change in new york state, technical report published by the new york state...

7/23/2019 Responding to Climate Change in New York State, Technical Report published by the New York State Energy Rese

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New York State Energy Research and Development Authority

'JOBM3FQPSUNo. 11-18

Responding to Climate Changein New York StateTTechnical Reportechnical Report


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NYSERDAs Promise to New Yorkers:New Yorkers can count on NYSERDA orobjective, reliable, energy-related solutionsdelivered by accessible,dedicated proessionals.

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RESPONDINGTO CLIMATE CHANGE IN NEW YORKSTATE: THE CLIMAID INTEGRATED ASSESSMENTFOREFFECTIVE

CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATIONIN NEW YORKSTATEFinal Report

Editors

Cynthia Rosenzweig, William Solecki, Arthur DeGaetano, Megan O'Grady, Susan Hassol, and Paul Grabhorn

Team Leaders

Frank Buonaiuto Stephen A. Hammer

Radley Horton Klaus Jacob

Patrick L. Kinney Robin Leichenko

Andrew McDonald Lesley Patrick

Rebecca SchneiderDavid W. Wolfe

Layout and Graphics

Joshua Weybright Paul Grabhorn

Prepared for the NEW YORKSTATE ENERGY RESEARCHAND DEVELOPMENT AUTHORITY

Albany, NY

Amanda Stevens, Project Manager Mark Watson, Program Manager

Full Report may be found at www.nyserda.ny.gov

ISBN: 978-1-936842-00-1 [electronic]NYSERDA NYSERDA 10581 November 2011Report 11-18
http:///reader/full/www.nyserda.ny.govhttp:///reader/full/www.nyserda.ny.gov


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ii ClimAID

ClimAID Leadership TeamCynthia Rosenzweig (PI), NASA Goddard Institute forSpace Studies and Columbia University

William Solecki (PI), City University of New York, CUNYInstitute for Sustainable Cities (CUNY CISC)

Arthur DeGaetano (PI), Northeast Regional Climate Center,Department of Earth and Atmospheric Science, Cornell

UniversityAmanda Stevens (Project Manager), New York State EnergyResearch and Development Authority (NYSERDA)

Mark Watson (Program Manager, Environmental Research),New York State Energy Research and Development Authority(NYSERDA)

Megan OGrady (Project Manager), Columbia UniversityLesley Patrick (Project Manager), City University of New YorkSusan Hassol (Science Writer), Climate Communication, LLCPaul Grabhorn (Graphic Designer), Grabhorn Studio, Inc.

Josh Weybright (Graphic Designer), Graphic Sky, Inc.

ClimAID Teams

ClimateRadley Horton (Lead), Columbia UniversityDaniel Bader, Columbia UniversityArthur DeGaetano, Cornell UniversityCynthia Rosenzweig, Columbia UniversityLee Tryhorn, Cornell UniversityRichard Goldberg, Columbia University

Adaptation and VulnerabilityWilliam Solecki, City University of New YorkLee Tryhorn, Cornell University

Arthur DeGaetano, Cornell University

Equity and Environmental JusticeRobin Leichenko (Lead), Rutgers UniversityPeter Vancura, Rutgers UniversityAdelle Thomas, Rutgers University

EconomicsYehuda Klein (Lead), City University of New YorkRobin Leichenko, Rutgers UniversityDavid C. Major, Columbia UniversityMarta Panero, New York University

Water ResourcesRebecca Schneider (Sector Lead), Cornell UniversityAndrew McDonald (Sector Lead), New York State WaterResources Institute

Stephen Shaw, Cornell UniversitySusan Riha, Cornell UniversityLee Tryhorn, Cornell UniversityAllan Frei, City University of New YorkBurrell Montz, East Carolina University

Coastal ZonesFrank Buonaiuto (Sector Lead), City University of New YorkLesley Patrick (Sector Lead), City University of New YorkEllen Hartig, New York City Department of Parks andRecreation

Vivien Gornitz, Columbia UniversityJery Stedinger, Cornell UniversityJay Tanski, Cornell UniversityJohn Waldman, City University of New York

EcosystemsDavid W. Wolfe (Sector Lead), Cornell University

Jonathan Comstock, Cornell UniversityHolly Menninger, Cornell UniversityDavid Weinstein, Cornell UniversityKristi Sullivan, Cornell UniversityCliff Kraft, Cornell UniversityBrian Chabot, Cornell UniversityPaul Curtis, Cornell University

AgricultureDavid W. Wolfe (Sector Lead), Cornell UniversityJonathan Comstock, Cornell University

Alan Lakso, Cornell UniversityLarry Chase, Cornell UniversityWilliam Fry, Cornell UniversityCurt Petzoldt, Cornell University

EnergyStephen A. Hammer (Sector Lead), Massachusetts Instituteof Technology, formerly with Columbia University

Lily Parshall, formerly with Columbia University

TransportationKlaus Jacob (Sector Lead), Columbia UniversityGeorge Deodatis, Columbia University

John Atlas, formerly with Columbia UniversityMorgan Whitcomb, Columbia UniversityMadeleine Lopeman, Columbia UniversityOlga Markogiannaki, Columbia UniversityZackary Kennett, Columbia UniversityAurelie Morla, Columbia University

TelecommunicationsKlaus Jacob (Sector Lead), Columbia UniversityNicholas Maxemchuk, Columbia University

George Deodatis, Columbia UniversityAurelie Morla, Columbia UniversityEllen Schlossberg, Columbia UniversityImin Paung, Columbia UniversityMadeleine Lopeman, Columbia University

Public HealthPatrick L. Kinney (Sector Lead), Columbia UniversityPerry Sheffield, Mount Sinai School of MedicineRichard S. Ostfeld, Cary Institute of Ecosystem Studies

Jessie L. Carr, Columbia University


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iiiIntegrated Assessment for Effective Climate Change Adaptation Strategies in New York State

NOTICE

This report was prepared by Columbia University, the City University of New York, and Cornell University in thecourse of performing work contracted for and sponsored by the New York State Energy Research and DevelopmentAuthority (hereafter NYSERDA). The opinions expressed in this report do not necessarily reflect those ofNYSERDA or the State of New York, and reference to any specific product, service, process, or method does not

constitute an implied or expressed recommendation or endorsement of it. Further, NYSERDA, the State of NewYork, and the contractor make no warranties or representations, expressed or implied, as to the fitness for particularpurpose or merchantability of any product, apparatus, or service, or the usefulness, completeness, or accuracy of anyprocesses, methods, or other information contained, described, disclosed, or referred to in this report. NYSERDA,the State of New York, and the contractor make no representation that the use of any product, apparatus, process,method, or other information will not infringe privately owned rights and will assume no liability for any loss, injury,or damage resulting from, or occurring in connection with, the use of information contained, described, disclosed,or referred to in this report.

ABSTRACT

Climate change is already beginning to affect New York State, and these impacts are projected to grow. At the sametime, the state has the ability to develop adaptation strategies to prepare for and respond to climate risks now andin the future. The ClimAID assessment provides information on climate change impacts and adaptation for eightsectors in New York State: water resources, coastal zones, ecosystems, agriculture, energy, transportation,telecommunications, and public health. Observed climate trends and future climate projections were developed forseven regions across the state. Within each of the sectors, climate risks, vulnerabilities, and adaptation strategiesare identified. Integrating themes across all of the sectors are equity and environmental justice and economics.Case studies are used to examine specific vulnerabilities and potential adaptation strategies in each of the eightsectors. These case studies also illustrate the linkages among climate vulnerabilities, risks, and adaptation, anddemonstrate specific monitoring needs. Stakeholder participation was critical to the ClimAID assessment processto ensure relevance to decision makers across the state.

KEYWORDS

Climate change; adaptation; impacts; vulnerability; climate risk; sector impacts

Recommended Citation:Rosenzweig, C., W. Solecki, A. DeGaetano, M. O'Grady, S. Hassol, P. Grabhorn (Eds.). 2011. Responding to

Climate Change in New York State: The ClimAID Integrated Assessment for Effective Climate Change Adaptation.Technical Report. New York State Energy Research and Development Authority (NYSERDA), Albany, NewYork. www.nyserda.ny.gov
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iv ClimAID

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

It has been an honor to work with the New York State Energy Research and Development Authority (NYSERDA)and the stakeholders of New York State to assess vulnerability and adaptation capacity related to climate change.At NYSERDA, we thank Janet Joseph, Vice President for Technology and Strategic Planning, Mark Watson,Program Manager, and especially Amanda Stevens, the ClimAID Project Manager who guided the assessment on

a daily basis. Alan Belensz, formerly of the Climate Change Office of the NYS Department of EnvironmentalConservation, was a source of support throughout the ClimAID process. They are all exemplary civil servantscommitted to developing effective ways for the State to confront climate change challenges.

This report is the product of the work of the dedicated sector and integrating theme leaders and the team membersof ClimAID. We express our sincere thanks to each of them for their contributions.

We thank Megan OGrady and Lesley Patrick for their great work as the ClimAID Project Managers, without whomClimAID could not have completed its tasks in such a comprehensive way. We are grateful to Daniel Bader for histechnical climate expertise and for coordinating the finalization of the report. At the Goddard Institute for SpaceStudies and the Columbia Center for Climate Systems Research, we also thank Richard Goldberg and Jos Mendozafor their technical and graphics contributions. At the CUNY Institute for Sustainable Cities, we thank Michael

Brady, Kristen Grady, Bridget Ripley, Andrew Maroko, and Andrew Lynch for technical expertise as well. Thetechnical assistance provided by Brian Belcher at Cornell University is also appreciated.

It has been a tremendous experience to work with Susan Hassol and Paul Grabhorn, both national leaders incommunicating the science of climate change to a broad array of citizens.

We thank the expert reviewers of the ClimAID assessment, without whom the independent provision of soundscience for climate change adaptation cannot proceed.

Finally, we thank the many stakeholders who provided inputs and feedback to the ClimAID assessment. Theygenerously shared their knowledge so that New York State can respond effectively to changing climate conditions.

Cynthia Rosenzweig, NASA GISS and Columbia UniversityWilliam Solecki, Hunter College at City University of New YorkArthur DeGaetano, Cornell University


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Integrated Assessment for Effective Climate Change

Adaptation in New York State

Contents

Introduction........................................................................1Chapter 1. Climate Risks .................................................15

Chapter 2. Vulnerability and Adaptation ............... ...........49

Chapter 3. Equity and Economics ...................................61

Chapter 4. Water Resources............................................79

Chapter 5. Coastal Zones..............................................121

Chapter 6. Ecosystems..................................................163

Chapter 7. Agriculture....................................................217

Chapter 8. Energy............... ................. ................. .........255

Chapter 9. Transportation................. ................. ............299

Chapter 10. Telecommunications ...................... ............363

Chapter 11. Public Health..............................................397

Chapter 12. Conclusions and Recommendations.........439

Annex I. Expert Reviewers for the ClimAID Assessment

Annex II. New York State Adaptation Guidebook

Annex III. An Economic Analysis of Climate Change

Impacts and Adaptations in New York State


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ClimAID: Integrated Assessment for Effective Climate

Change Adaptation Strategies in New York State

Authors: Cynthia Rosenzweig, William Solecki, and Arthur DeGaetano

Contents

Introduction........................................................................2

Climate Change in New York State....................................3ClimAID Team, Meetings, and Reviews ................ .............3

Stakeholder Interactions....................................................4

Integrating Themes ............................................................4

Climate.......................................................................5

Vulnerability................................................................6

Adaptation ........................... ................. ................. ....6

Equity and Environmental Justice..............................7

Economics .................................................................8

Sectors...............................................................................8

Water Resources........................................................8

Coastal Zones............................................................9

Ecosystems ...............................................................9

Agriculture................... ................. ................. ...........10

Energy......................................................................10

Transportation..........................................................10

Telecommunications .......................... ................. .....11

Public Health............................................................11

Case Studies....................................................................11

Assessment Outcomes................ ................. ................. ..12

Appendix A. Project Advisory Committee Members .......12

Appendix B. Stakeholder Organizations Engaged in

ClimAID Assessment ..............................................13


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2 ClimAID

Introduction

New York State is already experiencing impacts as aresult of climate change, and impacts are projected toincrease with further warming. At the same time, thestate has great adaptive capacity to address them. From

the Great Lakes to Long Island Sound, from theAdirondacks to the Susquehanna Valley, climatechange will affect the people and resources of New YorkState. Risks associated with climate change includegreater incidence of heat stress caused by more frequentand intense heat waves; greater incidence of heavyrainfall events affecting food production, naturalecosystems, and water resources; and sea level riseleading to increased flooding in coastal areas. Climatechange may exacerbate existing stresses on the peopleand activities of New York State and, in some cases,might provide opportunities such as enhancement of its

water resources and agricultural potential. The goals ofthe Integrated Assessment for Effective ClimateChange Adaptation Strategies in New York State(ClimAID) are to provide New York State decision-makers with cutting-edge information on itsvulnerability to, as well as its ability to derive benefitsfrom, climate change and to facilitate the developmentof adaptation strategies informed by both localexperience and scientific knowledge. Further aims ofClimAID are to highlight areas related to climatechange and New York State that warrant additionalresearch and to identify data gaps and monitoring needs

in order to help guide future efforts.

Initiated in 2008, ClimAID is funded by the New YorkState Energy Research and Development Authority(NYSERDA) as part of its Environmental Monitoring,Evaluation, and Protection Program (EMEP). Theassessment proceeds from the acknowledgement thatthe unique combination of natural resources,

ecosystems, economic activities, and humanpopulation of New York State will not be immune tothe impacts of climate change, and that localcommunities and the State as a whole, therefore, needto plan for and adapt to these effects. Climate changeposes special challenges for New York State decision-makers related to the uncertainties inherent in futureclimate projections and the complex linkages amongclimate change, physical and biological systems, andsocioeconomic sectors.

Working interactively with stakeholders, the ClimAID

team focused on five integrating themes across a broadrange of key sectors (Figure 1). The five integratingthemes are climate, vulnerability, adaptation, equity andenvironmental justice, and economic costs associatedwith climate change impacts and adaptive measures, aswell as the benefits of avoiding impacts. The fiveintegrating themes were selected based on discussionswith NYSERDA and sector stakeholders about factorsof key relevance for responding to a changing climate inthe state. The eight sectors are Water Resources,Coastal Zones, Ecosystems, Agriculture, Energy,Transportation, Telecommunications, and Public

Health.

Figure 1 ClimAID integrating themes and sectors, illustrating Figure 2 Interactions of ClimAID assessment with otherthe interwoven fabric of climate change assessment climate change adaptation initiatives in New York State


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3Integrated Assessment for Effective Climate Change Adaptation Strategies in New York State

Progress in reducing vulnerability and building adaptivecapacity to respond to climate change depends onintegrating the best available local and scientificknowledge with lessons learned from previous andcurrent efforts. To that end, ClimAID built on keyfindings from prior assessments, and coordinated with

concurrent research and policy initiatives on climatechange adaptation, such as the Rising Waters project (aregional planning effort for the Hudson Valleyconvened by The Nature Conservancy and partners),1

the New York State Sea Level Rise Task Force convenedby the New York State Legislature,2 the New York CityClimate Change Adaptation Task Force led by theMayors Office of Long-Term Planning andSustainability of New York City,3 and the New York CityPanel on Climate Change (NPCC) convened by MayorBloomberg of New York City4 (Figure 2). The New YorkState Climate Action Council is preparing mitigation

and adaptation policy recommendations for theGovernors Office.5

Climate Change in New York State

Climate change is already affecting and will continue toaffect a broad set of activities across New York State. Itsgeographical and socioeconomic diversity means thatNew York State will experience a wide range of effects.There will be opportunities to explore new varieties,

new crops, and new markets associated with highertemperatures and longer growing seasons. New Yorksrelative wealth of water resources, if properly managed,can contribute to resilience and new economicopportunities. On the other hand, higher temperaturesand increased heat waves have the potential toincrease fatigue of materials in the water, energy,transportation, and telecommunications sectors; affectdrinking water supply; cause a greater frequency ofsummer heat stress on plants and animals; alter pestpopulations and habits; affect the distribution of keycrops such as apples, grapes, cabbage, and potatoes;cause reductions in dairy milk production; increaseenergy demand; and lead to more heat-related deathsand declines in air quality. Projected higher averageannual precipitation and frequency of heavyprecipitation events could also potentially increase therisks of several problems, including flash floods in urbanareas and hilly regions; higher pollutant levels in watersupplies; inundation of wastewater treatment plantsand other vulnerable development in floodplains;

saturated coastal lands and wetland habitats; floodedkey rail lines, roadways, and transportation hubs; andtravel delays. Sea level rise will increase risk of stormsurge-related flooding, enhance vulnerability of energyfacilities located in coastal areas, and threatentransportation and telecommunications facilities.

Across the varied geography of New York State, manyindividuals, households, communities, and firms are atrisk of experiencing climate change impacts. Some willbe especially vulnerable to specific impacts due to theirlocation and lack of resources.

ClimAID Team, Meetings, and Reviews

Because New York is large and diverse, special

emphasis in ClimAID was placed on integration andcoordination so that climate change impacts andpotential responses could be addressed coherentlyacross the geographic regions and the multidimensionalsectors of the state.

The ClimAID team was made up of university andresearch scientists who are specialists in climate changescience, impacts, and adaptation. Researchers cameprimarily, but not exclusively, from Columbia University,Cornell University, and Hunter College of the CityUniversity of New York (See front matter for list of

ClimAID team members). The team was organized intogroups that addressed the five integrating themes andthe eight sectors.

Approximately every six months over the periodNovember 2008 to June 2010, ClimAID team membersgathered from around the state for face-to-facemeetings. The kickoff meeting was held in Albany inthe fall of 2008 to present the scope of work, identifysectors and stakeholders, and set priorities. The secondmeeting was held early in 2009 at Cornell Universityand focused on initial findings, overall emergingmessaging, and identifying common themes. The thirdmeeting was again held in Albany in the fall of 2009and provided a further update of the findings. The finalClimAID meeting was held at Hunter College CUNYto discuss the major conclusions. The team also heldregular teleconferences, approximately every two weeksin the beginning and then once a month. Theintegrating theme groups interacted directly with eachof the sector groups throughout the process.


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4 ClimAID

A Project Advisory Committee, convened byNYSERDA, was made up of experts from the sectorscovered by ClimAID (Appendix A). The committeemet approximately every six months to review draftmaterials and to advise on the overall scope anddirection of the assessment.

Besides the Project Advisory Committee reviews,external reviews were conducted for the sector chaptersin the early summer 2009 and early in 2010. Eachchapter was reviewed by multiple outside experts inrelevant fields (see Annex I).

Stakeholder Interactions

To ensure that the information provided by ClimAID

was relevant to the climate-related decisions made bypractitioners, stakeholder interactions were a key part ofthe process (Figure 3). Working with NYSERDA andthe Project Advisory Committee, the sector leadersidentified relevant stakeholders from the public sphere(e.g., state and local agencies), nonprofit organizations(e.g., non-governmental community and environmentalgroups), private-sector entities (e.g., businesses), andacademic institutions for each of the sectors, andorganized the stakeholder interactions. (For a list ofstakeholder organizations by sector, see Appendix B andthe sector chapters).

Figure 3 ClimAID sector stakeholder process

While each sector developed its own stakeholderprocess, sectors generally convened sector-specificstakeholder meetings in the first four-month period ofClimAID; developed, administered, and analyzed asurvey to a wider group of sector stakeholders; formeda focus group of key stakeholders for ongoing discussion

and advice throughout the assessment; and held a finalstakeholder meeting in the third four-month period topresent preliminary results and get feedback on draftconclusions and recommendations. See sector chaptersfor fuller descriptions of stakeholder interactions.

Integrating Themes

ClimAID developed five key themes to integrate acrossthe eight sectors: climate, vulnerability, adaptation,

equity and environmental justice, and economics.

Sector Case Study Title

Susquehanna River Flooding, June 2006*Water Resources

Orange County Water Supply Planning

1-in-100-Year Flood and Environmental Justice*Coastal Zones Modeling Climate Change Impacts in the Hudson River Estuary

Salt Marsh Change at New York City Parks and Implications of Accelerated Sea Level Rise

HemlockCascading Effects of Climate Change on Wildlife and HabitatCreative Approaches to Monitoring and Adaptive ManagementNew Yorks Invasive Species Program as a Model

EcosystemsMaple Syrup IndustryAdaptation to Climate Change ImpactsBrook TroutReduction in Habitat Due to Warming Summers*

Frost Damage on GrapesPotato Late Blight

AgricultureDroughtDairy Heat Stress*

Impact of Climate Change on New York State HydropowerEnergy

Climate Change-Induced Heat Wave in New York City*

Transportation Future Coastal Storm Impacts on Transportation in the New York Metropolitan Region*

Telecommunications Winter Storm in Central, Western, and Northern New York*

Heat-related Mortality Among People Age 65 and Older*Ozone and Respiratory Diseases

Public HealthExtreme Storm and Precipitation EventsWest Nile Virus

*In-depth case study including economic and environmental justice analysis

Table 1 Case studies by sector


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A group of ClimAID scientists focused on each of thesethemes, working with the sectors to ensure broadcoordination across the assessment. Case studies ofspecific impacts and/or locations were selected for eachof the sectors that provided special analysis of the fivethemes (Table 1). See chapters 1, 2, and 3 for detailed

descriptions of the concepts and methods used in theintegrating themes.

Climate

The Climate group analyzed both past and futureclimate in New York State (see Climate, Chapter 1).Climate observations from across New York Stateobtained from the NOAA Northeast Regional ClimateCenter were used to analyze trends in key variables andthus to answer the question, Is climate changing in

New York State? The Climate group also developed aset of climate change scenarios for New York State to

facilitate the assessment of potential impacts underfuture conditions. The group assessed the degree towhich current-generation climate models are able toreplicate observed climate and climate trends over thepast several decades in New York State and analyzedthe relevant results for New York State of regional

climate models and statistical downscaling. As part ofthis effort, results were analyzed from the NorthAmerican Regional Climate Change AssessmentProgram (NARCCAP), which is conducting acoordinated set of current and future regional climatemodel simulations. The Climate group assessed globaland regional climate model simulations on the basis ofthe availability of climate change simulations, spatialand temporal resolution, selection of climate variables,and accuracy in representing New York State climate.

The Climate group developed a set of climate change

projections for New York State as a whole and for sevenclimate regions within the state based on 16 global

Figure 4 Climate regions of New York State


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6 ClimAID

climate models and three emission scenarios (Figure 4).The outcomes are presented as model-basedprobabilities or uncertainty envelopes6 around theprojections. Because extreme climate events areassociated with the greatest risks, the Climate groupalso developed model-based probabilities of the future

occurrence of extreme events (e.g., heat waves,droughts, and floods) in New York State. The Climategroup associated confidence levels with the projections,using a rating based on that employed by theIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change FourthAssessment Report (AR4) (IPCC, 2007). These ratings(e.g., extremely likely, very likely) are based on thecorrespondence between observations and climatemodel projections, agreement among climate models,and expert judgment.

For sea level rise, the Climate group developed a set of

projections for the coastal area of New York State andconducted a historical analysis of current and historicalstorm damage on its infrastructure systems. The sealevel rise projections were based on global climatemodels and methods with the addition of a rapid ice-melt scenario that takes into account currentaccelerated rates of ice melt in Greenland andAntarctica and documented rates of melting inpaleoclimate records. The Climate group also analyzedtide gauge records, historical storms, future climatemodel simulations, and storm surge model simulationsto assess the potential for changes in the spatial and

temporal distribution of coastal storms (hurricanes andnoreasters) for the state.

Working with each of the sectors, the Climate groupdefined specific climate hazards as identified bystakeholders and produced tailored products for use inthe sector assessments. Based on the vulnerabilitiesidentified for each sector, the Climate group identifiedand developed a set of climate hazard indicators thatcould be monitored to track current climate trends andvariability, and enable comparisons to historical dataand future scenarios. These climate hazard indicatorswill help inform the development of appropriateadaptation programs and policies.

Throughout the assessment, the Climate grouppresented uncertainties surrounding climate modelingin general and in downscaling to regional levels withinthe state in particular, highlighting data gaps andmonitoring needs, and indicating areas that requirefurther research related to climate hazard and risk

analysis, modeling uncertainty, and downscaling in NewYork State.

Vulnerability

The ClimAID Vulnerability group identified both near-term and longer-term climate vulnerabilities for NewYork State (see Vulnerability and Adaptation, Chapter2). To ensure that the assessment was aimed at the mostpressing near-term climate impacts, the sectors workedwith stakeholders to target vulnerabilities that currentlyaffect the state, such as heat waves, floods, droughts, andcoastal and inland flooding. The assessment alsoidentified future climate vulnerabilities in order toprovide information that will enable the state to takeearly action to reduce the possibility of catastrophic orlarge-scale climate impacts and/or to take full advantage

of climate change opportunities.

Based on published literature and salience for New YorkState stakeholders, the Vulnerability group broughtforward a range of criteria for identifying the climatechange vulnerabilities in each sector. Key vulnerabilitycriteria related to climate impacts in New York Stateinclude the following:

magnitude timing (e.g., seasonality) persistence and reversibility

likelihood (based on estimates of uncertainty) distributional aspects within a region or among

socioeconomic groups importance of the at-risk systems thresholds or trigger points that could exacerbate

the change

Through stakeholder interactions, analysis of previousstudies, and case studies, the ClimAID assessment thenevaluated how these and related criteria affect potentialvulnerabilities in each sector. In communication withstakeholders, ClimAID then compiled a set of potentialvulnerabilities related to climate change, highlightingthose with higher impacts for New York State.

Adaptation

The ClimAID Adaptation group identified, developed,and assessed adaptation strategies for the eight sectorsincluded in the assessment (see Chapter 2,


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Vulnerability and Adaptation). Developing climatechange adaptation strategies requires input from abreadth of academic disciplines as well as stakeholderexperience to ensure that recommendations are bothscientifically valid and practically sound. For each sectorand in direct response to the climate hazards, key

vulnerabilities, and stakeholder priorities identified inthe assessment, the Adaptation group worked with thesector teams and stakeholders first to catalog existingadaptation practices already in place and then todevelop and assess potential adaptation strategies to theexpected climate impacts. The Adaptation group usedempirical, quantitative, and qualitative methods, takinginto account the relevant issues in each sector. Tofurther expand the range of options, the group alsoconducted a benchmark study examining adaptationstrategies such as health-alert systems already beingimplemented in other regions of the United States and

the world.

The Adaptation group categorized existing andpotential adaptations with respect to variousmechanisms (see Table 2).

The potential for synergistic or unintendedconsequences of adaptation strategies was consideredas part of the assessment process.

The Adaptation group also identified research gaps,data requirements, and monitoring needs in the area of

climate change adaptation to help guide future researchefforts in New York State. Of particular interest was theidentification of existing linkages between climatescience and existing and potential policy adjustments,as well as opportunities to enhance these science-policylinkages through the identification of co-benefits andother conditions. Co-benefits are positive effects thatadaptation actions can have on mitigating climatechange (e.g., reduction of greenhouse gas emissions) or

AdaptationDefinitions

MechanismBehavior, management/operations, infrastructure/physical

Type component, risk-sharing, and policy (including institutionaland legal)

Administrative Private vs. public; governance scale local/municipal,group county, state, national

Level of effort Incremental action, paradigm shift

Years to implementation, speed of implementation (near-Timing

term/long-term)

Scale Widespread, clustered, isolated/unique

Table 2Adaptation mechanisms and definitions

on improving other aspects of the lives of New YorkState citizens. An example of a mitigation co-benefit isthe establishment of green roofs that keep residentscooler while reducing the use of air conditioners,thereby reducing fossil fuel emissions at power plants.An example of a co-benefit with other aspects is the

upgrading of combined sewer and stormwater systemsto reduce current pollution, while helping to prepare forfuture climate change impacts.

Equity and Environmental Justice

The equity and environmental justice component ofClimAID involves three types of parallel efforts: 1)development of equity and environmental justiceassessments for each sector, based on a review ofbackground literature in these areas, 2) participation in

sector case studies, and 3) attention to participation ofa broad range of groups or representatives in the sectormeetings with stakeholders (see Equity andEconomics, Chapter 3).

For the selected case studies, the Equity andEnvironmental Justice group explored criticalenvironmental justice issues with respect to intensityand extent of impacts and vulnerability and thepotential for unintended consequences of adaptation.Both distributional and procedural aspects of equity andenvironmental justice were included in the assessment.

In terms of distribution of climate hazards, there is anemphasis on identification of situations where particulargroups may be systematically disadvantaged, either interms of differences in vulnerability or capacity to adaptto climate change or in terms of the impacts of policiessurrounding adaptation. Concerning distributionalissues, the analysis is focused on inequalities invulnerability to climate change, capacity to adapt toclimate change, and effects of adaptation policies.

In terms of procedural elements, key considerationsinclude incorporation of equity issues in adaptationdiscussions and policies, mechanisms for participationamong a broad range of societal groups in futureadaptation planning and policy efforts, andincorporation of equity and environmental justicestakeholders (such as associations of elderly, disabled,and health-compromisedfor example, those sufferingfrom asthmapeople; low-income groups; farmworkers; and small business owners) in climatevulnerability and adaptation assessments.


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8 ClimAID

These distributional and procedural definitions ofequity and environmental justice are used throughoutClimAID. The broader aims include consideration ofpotential inequalities associated with climate changealong both traditional lines that have been identifiedwithin the environmental justice literature (e.g.,

underprivileged, minority groups), as well as along newlines that may emerge under an altered climatic regime(e.g., different-sized firms) or may result from theimplementation of adaptation policies and plans.

Economics

The Economics group broadly surveyed the economicvalue of each of the eight ClimAID sectors as well asthe potential damages and adaptation costs associatedwith climate change impacts. They also carried out a

detailed economic assessment for a selected casestudy in each of the sectors regarding the monetarycosts of climate change impacts and adaptation (seeChapter 3, Equity and Economics). The goal was toevaluate the economic costs associated with theimpacts of and adaptations to climate change that arelikely to affect the different sectors of the New YorkState economy. Where possible, variations in costswere calculated across time and space. Measures ofeconomic impact reviewed in the analysis includedhuman welfare losses incurred due to healthcarecosts, lost income and wage differentials, and

productivity and consumer losses.

The economic analysis builds on the impacts andadaptation information in each of the sectors as well aseconomic data from New York State and analyses of thecosts of impacts and adaptation strategies elsewhere.Methods included interviews, risk-based assessment ofkey impacts of climate change on sectors, and theframework of cost-benefit analysis (recognizing itssignificant limitations in evaluating adaptation toclimate change) to provide an overview of the costs ofimpacts and adaptation strategies.

For a selected case study in each sector, the Economicsgroup worked with the sector groups and stakeholdersto create a short list of potential impacts andadaptation strategies. The Economics group thenranked these impacts and strategies based on thepotential costs and benefits (as avoided impacts fromthe vulnerability assessment) associated with each. Costand benefit estimates were derived from standard

pricing protocols and discount rate measures. For theselected case studies, the Economics group conductedeconomic analyses for different time horizons dependingon the sector adaptations under consideration: short-term (i.e., actions within the next five years),medium-term (i.e., actions within the next five to 15

years), and long-term (i.e., actions to be taken beyond15 years) responses. The Economics group, whenpossible, included the expected lifetimes (e.g., forcapital-intensive infrastructure), amortization times(often linked to bonds that public entities use to financepublic projects), and discount rates.

Sectors

ClimAID assessed how Water Resources, Coastal

Zones, Ecosystems, Agriculture, Energy, Transportation,Telecommunications, and Public Health in New YorkState are currently affected by climate, how they maybe affected by future climate change, and how they mayadapt. Stakeholders provided key information aboutclimate-related decisions for each sector. Each sectorchapter begins with a description of the sector followedby sections that present the five integrating themes ofclimate hazards, vulnerabilities, adaptation, equity andenvironmental justice, and economics specific to thesector. A key focus of each sector chapter is ahighlighted case study with in-depth analysis of

potential adaptation strategies for a major climatehazard related to the sector. Case studies of other keyclimate vulnerabilities and adaptation methods areincluded in the sector chapters as well. An Appendixto each sector chapter describes how stakeholders wereengaged in the assessment.

Water Resources

Water resources are dependent on multiple interactingclimate factors, including air temperature and thetiming and quantity of snow, rainfall, and evaporation.The Water Resources sector emphasizes in Chapter 4that water resources in New York State are alreadysubject to numerous human-induced stresses and thesepressures are likely to increase over the coming decades.

Potential vulnerabilities for water resources and relatedinfrastructure described in Chapter 4 include flooding,increase in duration and/or frequency of dry periods


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affecting drinking water supplies in systems with lowstorage relative to demand, changes in demand forcommercial and agricultural water related in part toclimate-related factors, and declines in water qualitydue to higher water temperatures and decreased streamflows in summer. There may be enhanced opportunities

for New York State as a potentially water-rich area infuture climate conditions.

Examples of adaptation strategies for water resourcesdetailed by the Water Resources sector for floodsinclude 1) development of cost-effective stormwatermanagement infrastructure that enhances naturalhydrologic processes (infiltration into soils, recharginggroundwater, evaporation) and slows the movementof stormwater instead of rapidly conveying it towaterbodies, and 2) consideration of phasedwithdrawal of infrastructure from high-risk, flood-

prone areas. For water supplies, adaptation strategiesinclude establishment of guidelines for systematicmanagement of water supplies under drought andimplementation of an automatic gauging and reportingnetwork to provide improved early-warning systemsfor supply shortages. For non-potable water supplies,the chapter suggests mechanisms for bettercoordination of water use in shared water bodies, thedevelopment of a public online system for tracingwater usage across the state, establishment ofminimum flow requirements for water withdrawals,and the preparation of a statewide water plan.

In regard to water quality, adaptation strategiesevaluated in the chapter include design modificationsto insure that regulatory requirements are met undercurrent and future climate conditions; research andmonitoring are needed to understand impacts of low-flows and higher temperatures on water quality, andpotential changes to nutrient, sediment, and pathogenpollution in a changing climate.

Coastal Zones

The Coastal Zones sector in the ClimAID assessmentfocused on the regions close to the ocean, rather than onthe coastal areas of the Great Lakes. Climate changevulnerabilities related to the Great Lakes are discussed inClimate Risks (Chapter 1), Water Resources (Chapter4), Ecosystems (Chapter 6), Energy (Chapter 8),Transportation (Chapter 9), and Telecommunications(Chapter 10). Climate hazards related to coastal zones

encompass the distinct but related factors of sea levelrise, coastal storms, increasing coastal watertemperatures, and changes in precipitation patterns.These hazards are likely to occur in combination. Ashighlighted in Chapter 5, coastal zones in New YorkState are already stressed by high levels of development,

which tend to reduce groundwater recharge and degradewater quality in the region.

Potential vulnerabilities for coastal zones described inthe Coastal Zones sector in Chapter 5 include morefrequent coastal flooding over larger areas duringstorms, increased shoreline erosion leading to alterationof the coastline, changes in the location of the salt frontin the Hudson River estuary, loss of coastal wetlands,and changes in fish and shellfish populations.

Examples of adaptation strategies for coastal zones

detailed in Chapter 5 include incorporating climatechange and sea level rise information into land-useplanning (for instance, setback zones requiring that newcoastal development be a minimum distance from theshore). Other adaptation strategies include preparationof a detailed inventory of shoreline assets located in at-risk areas; acquiring of open coastal land for stormprotection, recreation, and ecosystems; development ofdesign criteria for new infrastructure; design of retrofitand/or relocation options for existing infrastructure thatare more flexible to changing conditions and periodicreassessment; creation of a dynamic framework for

updating policy guidelines given the moving target ofclimate change; and establishment of a network ofstakeholders and volunteers to assist in monitoring forsea level rise response and coordinating outreach andeducation efforts. Key tasks for climate changeadaptation in the coastal zones are to monitor coastalhazard zones over time in order to determine optimaltiming of adaptation measures and to coordinate effortsacross the state.

Ecosystems

Climate hazards of particular relevance as detailed bythe Ecosystems sector are warmer winter temperatures,increased frequency of summer heat stress, increasedfrequency of heavy rainfall events, and increasedfrequency of late summer droughts.

Chapter 6 characterizes the potential vulnerabilities ofnatural ecosystems to climate changes as the loss of


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10 ClimAID

spruce/fir forests in the Adirondacks and major shifts intree species composition across the state, the loss ofhemlock stands as a result of the wooly adelgid insectpest expanding its range northward, the effects oncoldwater fish with repercussions for sport fishing, andthe impacts on ski and snowmobile businesses.

Examples of adaptation strategies presented in Chapter6 for ecosystem management include creation ofmigration corridors, reduction of human impacts inparticularly vulnerable areas, and creation of moreprotected areas.

Agriculture

The Agriculture sector describes the climate changehazards of particular relevance in Chapter 7. These

include warmer summer temperatures and longergrowing seasons, increased frequency of summer heatstress and warmer winters, reduced snow cover,increased frequency of late-summer droughts, andincreased frequency of heavy rainfall events.

Chapter 7 characterizes the potential vulnerabilitiesfor agriculture as increased insects and diseases,heightened weed pressure, and the effects of excesswater and drought. Key agricultural industries in thestate that may be affected include dairy andlivestock (via heat stress effects on productivity and

changes in feed availability and prices), and poorspring bloom and yields of apples and othertemperate fruit crops because of inadequate winterchill hours.

Examples of on-farm adaptation strategies described inthe chapter for dairy and livestock industries includediet and feeding management; use of fans, sprinklers,and other cooling systems; and enhancement ofcooling capacity in housing facilities. For crops, on-farm adaptations include shifting planting dates;diversification of crop varieties and crops; chemical andnon-chemical control of insects, disease, and weeds;expanded irrigation capacity and other capitalinvestments; and freeze and frost protection forperennial fruit crops. Chapter 7 explores adaptationstrategies beyond the farm through such mechanisms asinformation delivery/extension systems, locallyavailable design and planning assistance, disaster-riskmanagement and insurance, financial assistance, andpolicy and regulatory decisions.

Energy

Climate hazards of particular relevance described by theEnergy sector in Chapter 8 include anticipated changesin heating and cooling degree days; changes inhydrology affecting hydropower potential, including

increased flooding along the coasts and in rivers anddeclines in streamflow; higher water temperatures; iceand snow storms; and wind. Based on the climatechange projections, the Energy chapter evaluated theimplications of changing loads on energy systemoperations in different parts of the state.

The energy sector explored climate vulnerabilities forelectricity generation, transmission, and distribution.Potential vulnerabilities for energy supply includeimpacts on thermoelectric power generation and powerdistribution, impacts on natural gas distribution

infrastructure, and impacts on renewable powergeneration. Potential vulnerabilities for energy demandinclude changes in total demand, seasonal variability,and peak demand.

Examples of adaptation strategies for the Energy sectordescribed in Chapter 8 include changes in powerdispatch rules to de-emphasize the use of vulnerablesystem assets; establishment of larger incentives topromote energy efficiency in order to reduce energydemand during extreme heat events and associatedpeak load demands; strategies to promote the more

rapid deployment of distributed generation technologies(including solar, on-site combined heat and powertechnology, etc.) to both reduce demand on the gridand reduce site-specific system vulnerabilities;construction of additional power generation capacity tooffset anticipated periodic losses in hydropoweravailability; changes in flood protection land-usepractices to site power generation capacity in areas lessvulnerable to flooding or extreme weather events; andrequirements that utilities begin upgrading theirtransmission and distribution systems to prepare fordemand growth associated with changing temperaturelevels around the state.

Transportation

Climate hazards of particular relevance totransportation include warmer summer and wintertemperatures, increased precipitation, decreasedsnowfall, sea level rise, increased likelihood of heat


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waves, increased likelihood of coastal and inlandfloods, changes in extreme events includinghurricanes and noreasters, and potential changes inwind speed and patterns and associated changes inwave climate.

Examples of potential vulnerabilities for transportationfrom Chapter 9 include increased stress on materialsfrom increased temperatures and precipitation,increased coastal flooding risks due to sea level rise andstorm surges, increased inland flooding from moreintense precipitation events (especially in urban andhilly areas), and potential impacts of saltwater intrusionon coastal infrastructure.

Examples of adaptation strategies for theTransportation sector described in Chapter 9 relate tocoastal hazards, heat hazards, precipitation hazards,

and winter storms including snow and ice. Strategiesexplored include raising the level of new criticalinfrastructure and essential service sites; includingclimate change adaptation knowledge when retrofittingolder infrastructure; switching to more durablematerials; changing land-use planning mechanisms;and creating increased resilience through flexibleadaptation pathways in operations, management, andpolicy decisions.

Telecommunications

Climate hazards related to telecommunicationsdescribed in Chapter 10 are extreme temperatures, heatwaves, and intense precipitation; sea level rise, coastalfloods, and storms; and ice storms. The primaryvulnerability brought forward is communicationsoutages caused by these climate hazards.

Adaptation strategies presented by theTelecommunications sector in Chapter 10 include treetrimming to avoid damage to existing wires, switchingfrom aboveground to belowground infrastructure, theuse of fiber optics rather than wires, and wirelesssystems instead of land lines. A general adaptiveprinciple in the sector is to increase redundancy via theuse of generators and backup solar-powered batterybanks. Other useful adaptation strategies includerelocation of central offices away from floodplains anddiversification of telecommunications media, e.g., thecontinued development of high-speed broadband andwireless services throughout the state.

Public Health

Climate hazards described by the Public Health sectorin Chapter 11 include increasing temperature(especially heatwaves), extreme precipitation andflooding events, and changing patterns of monthly

temperatures and precipitation.

Vulnerabilities for public health detailed in Chapter 11include illness and death associated with more frequentand severe heat waves. Cold-related death is projectedto decrease, although increases in heat-related death areprojected to outweigh reductions in cold-related death.Vulnerabilities related to climate change also includeillness and death associated with ozone and fine-particleair pollution, asthma and other respiratory diseasesincluding allergies associated with altered pollen andmold seasons, cardiovascular disease, and infectious

diseases. Climate plays a strong role in the emergenceand/or changing distributions of vector-borne diseases,such as those spread by mosquitoes and ticks.

Examples of adaptation strategies for public health fromChapter 11 include integrating specific informationabout climate-related vulnerabilities into ongoingprograms of public health surveillance, prevention, andresponse, rather than developing new programs to dealwith unique challenges; developing scenarios thatintegrate climate forecasts into planning around heatemergencies and heat-warning systems; and integrating

climate forecasts into ongoing planning for air quality.

Case Studies

Case studies were done for each of the ClimAID sectors(Table 1) and are found at the ends of the chapters.Some of these served in particular as a crosscuttingelement across the sectors and as a way to highlightconcrete climate change adaptation challenges andopportunities across the state. For these in-depth casestudies, the ClimAID sectors identified, with input fromstakeholders, high-priority vulnerabilities in each sector.The in-depth case studies targeted those areas,communities, subpopulations, or sub-sectors thatexperience frequent climate impacts under currentclimate conditions. The aim was to identify usefulclimate adaptation strategies, taking into accountuncertainties in future climate projections. Through thecase studies, the ClimAID team identified and


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12

illustrated the linkages connecting climate hazards,vulnerabilities, adaptation strategies, equity andenvironmental justice, and economics. Specificmonitoring needs were identified as well.

Assessment Outcomes

The ClimAID assessment identified key climate changevulnerabilities and presented potential adaptationstrategies for eight sectors in New York State. Theassessment developed a coordinated set of climatechange scenarios for the state as a whole and for sevenregions within the state. This information contributedto the New York State Climate Action Council (CAC)process through the creation of a generalized set ofadaptation guidelines and sector templates (see Table3 and Annexes I and II for a description of the CACadaptation process and the ClimAID Climate Change

Adaptation Guidebook and sector templates). FurtherClimAID economic analyses that contributed to theCAC process are included in Annex III of this report.

The generalized set of guidelines described in theguidebook could be used by practitioners around thestate to develop flexible yet prioritized responses to therisks of climate change. The guidebook provides astakeholder guide to climate change adaptation,including a series of steps that can help to guide theprocess of considering how to assess vulnerabilities andestablish adaptation plans within an organization.

These were developed and tested as part of theactivities of the Climate Action Council AdaptationTechnical Working Group. Such decision-supporttools aid development of science-based adaptationstrategies and describe a coordinated approach to thedevelopment of effective adaptations among andacross sectors. In some cases, climate change mightprovide opportunities to the state; these were broughtforward as well.

ClimAID

Another ClimAID outcome is the identification ofinformation gaps and research needs developed inconjunction with stakeholders and decision-makers.The ClimAID data, climate change projections, reports,and findings are publicly available on the Internet.

A key lesson of the ClimAID assessment is that such acoordinated approach is useful in dealing with thechallenges and opportunities inherent in climatechange and the complexities of integrating adaptationinto the myriad of New York State activities.

Appendix A. Project AdvisoryCommittee Members

Name Affiliation

Jim Austin NYS Department of Public Service

Alan Belensz NYS Department of Environmental Conservation

New York City Office of Long-Term Planning andAdam Freed

Sustainability

John Kahabka New York Power Authority

Naresh Kumar Electric Power Research Institute

U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Clean AirJason Lynch

Markets

Lisa Moore Environmental Defense Fund

Christina Palmero NYS Department of Public Service

Barry Pendergrass NYS Department of State

Ron Rausch NYS Department of Agriculture and Markets

Patricia Reixinger NYS Department of Environmental Conservation

Victoria Simon New York Power Authority

James Wolf Consultant

John Zamurs NYS Department of Transportation

Review and assess existing climate stress conditions. Clarify goals and identify intersections of climate t rends and changes with respect to achieving goals.

Compare with climate trends and change projections for New York State. How will these affect particular sectors?

Characterize adaptation strategies for operations and management, infrastructure, and policies for thresholds and ranges of key climate variables (e.g., temperature,sea level, storm surge, and precipitation) needed to maintain resilience.

Evaluate potential adaptation strategies (cost/benefit, environmental impacts) for management, infrastructure, and policy in the short, medium, and long terms;assess effectiveness and costs relative to benefits accrued; evaluate human capacity to respond or implement the strategies.

Prioritize flexible adaptation pathways (over decades).

Review climate trends and scenarios (at regular intervals).

Table 3 Climate change adaptation assessment guidelines (see ClimAID Climate Change Adaptation Guidebook, Annex II,for full description)


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Appendix B. Stakeholder OrganizationsEngaged in ClimAID Assessment (seeSector Chapters for complete lists)

Water Resources

NYS Department of Environmental Conservation,NYS Department of Health, NYC Department ofEnvironmental Protection, county and local water andsewer departments, U.S. Geological Survey, U.S. ArmyCorps of Engineers, Delaware River BasinCommission, NYS Soil and Water ConservationCommittee, Cornell Cooperative Extension,Susquehanna River Basin Commission, Directors ofLake Associations, American Wildlife ConservationFoundation, American Public Works Association,Federation of NYS Solid Waste Association, NY Forest

Owners Association, Ontario Dune Coalition,Director of State Wetland Managers and StateFloodplain, municipal engineers, town planners,watershed council program managers, privateengineering consultants.

Coastal Zones

NY District of U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, NYSDepartment of State, NYS Department ofTransportation, NYS Emergency Management Office,

NYC Department of Environmental Protection,Metropolitan Transportation Authority, The NatureConservancy, the Port Authority of New York and New

Jersey, NYC Office of Emergency Management, FEMARegion II, National Park Service, Stony BrookUniversity, Suffolk and Nassau Counties, NYCDepartment of Parks and Recreation, DEC HudsonRiver Estuary Program and NYS Climate ChangeOffice, New York Sea Grant Extension, NYC ClimateChange Adaptation Task Force, NYC Panel on ClimateChange, NYS Sea Level Rise Task Force.

Ecosystems

NYS Department of Environmental Conservation; U.S.Geological Survey; U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service;Cornell Cooperative Extension; The NatureConservancy; National Wildlife Federation; AudubonNew York; Wildlife Conservation Society; AdirondackMountain Club; NY Forest Landowners Association;

Empire State Forest Products Association; OlympicRegional Development Authority; land, fish, andwildlife managers; maple growers.

Agriculture

Cornell Cooperative Extension, Cornell Integrated PestManagement Program, NYS Department ofAgriculture and Markets, U.S. Department ofAgriculture, Finger Lakes Grape Growers Association,Sweet Corn Grower Association, crop consultants,individual farmer collaborators.

Energy

Electric Power Research Institute, New York State

Energy Research and Development Authority, NewYork State Department of Public Service, New YorkState Independent System Operator, Alliance forClean Energy New York, Cogentrix, Con Edison,Dynegy, FirstLight Power, Suez GDF, National Grid,NRG Energy, NY Power Authority, TransCanada,Ravenswood, USPowerGen, Environmental EnergyAlliance of NY, AES, Long Island Power Authority,NYS Department of Environmental Conservation,New York City Mayors Office of Long-Term Planningand Sustainability.

Transportation

NYS Department of Transportation, MetropolitanTransportation Authority, Port Authority of New Yorkand New Jersey, Amtrak, U. S. Army Corps ofEngineers, CSX Corporation, NYS EmergencyManagement Office, NJ TRANSIT.

Telecommunications

Verizon, AT&T, Sprint Nextel, T-Mobile, UPS, FedEx,Time-Warner Cable, Federal CommunicationsCommission, Cablevision, CTANY, National Grid,New York City Mayors Office, Department ofHomeland Security, NYS Emergency ManagementOffice, NYC Office of Emergency Management, NYSDepartment of Environmental Conservation, Sea LevelRise Task Force, NYS Department of Public Service,NYS Energy Research and Development Authority.


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14 ClimAID

Public Health

NYS Department of Health; NYS Department ofEnvironmental Conservation; NYC Department ofHealth and Mental Hygiene; U.S. EnvironmentalProtection Agency Region II; U.S. Centers of Disease

Control; National Oceanic and AtmosphericAdministration; city, State, and federal governmentalagencies in the areas of environment, health, planning,and emergency management; non-governmentalenvironmental organizations; academic institutionswith research interests in public health and climatechange; environmental justice organizations; clinicalhealth sector organizations.

1 http://www.nature.org/wherewework/northamerica/states / newyork/science/art23583.html2 http://www.dec.ny.gov/energy/45202.html 3 http://www.nyc.gov/html/planyc2030/html/plan/climate_task-force.shtml 4 http://www.nyas.org/Publications/Annals/Default.aspx 5 http://nyclimatechange.us/InterimReport.cfm6 The model-based probabilities do not encompass the full range of potential climate changes, since future greenhouse gas emissions may

be higher than the emissions scenarios used in their construction.
http://www.nature.org/wherewework/northamerica/stateshttp://www.dec.ny.gov/energy/45202.htmlhttp://www.nyc.gov/html/planyc2030/html/plan/climate_task-force.shtmlhttp://www.nyas.org/Publications/Annals/Default.aspxhttp://nyclimatechange.us/InterimReport.cfmhttp://www.nature.org/wherewework/northamerica/stateshttp://www.dec.ny.gov/energy/45202.htmlhttp://www.nyc.gov/html/planyc2030/html/plan/climate_task-force.shtmlhttp://www.nyas.org/Publications/Annals/Default.aspxhttp://nyclimatechange.us/InterimReport.cfm


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Chapter 1

Climate Risks

Authors: Radley Horton,1,2

Daniel Bader,2

Lee Tryhorn,3

Art DeGaetano,3

and Cynthia Rosenzweig2,4

1 Integrating Theme Lead2 Columbia University Earth Institute Center for Climate Systems Research3 Cornell University Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences4 NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies

Contents

Introduction......................................................................16

1.1 Climate Change in New York State........... .................17 Research....................... ................. ................. ...........371.2 Observed Climate ............... ................. ................. .....18 References......... ................. ................. ................. ...........38

1.2.1 Average Temperature and Precipitation.......... ..18 Appendix A. Uncertainty, Likelihoods, and Projection of

1.2.2 Sea Level Rise............ ................. ................. .....19 Extreme Events................ ................. ................. ........39

1.2.3 Snowfall................... ................. ................. ........19 Appendix B. Indicators and Monitoring................ ...........42

1.2.4 Extreme Events ............... ................. .................19 Appendix C. Regional Climate Models................. ...........43

1.2.5 Historical Analysis................. ................. ...........21 Appendix D. Statistical Downscaling in the ClimAID

1.3 Climate Projections............. ................. ................. .....23 Assessment ............... ................. ................. ..............47

1.3.1 Climate Model Validation ....................... ...........24

1.3.2 Projection Methods...........................................27

1.3.3 Average Annual Changes .................................30

1.3.4 Changes in Extreme Events ................ ..............33

1.4 Conclusions and Recommendations for Future


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16 ClimAID

Introduction

This chapter describes New York States climate and theclimate changes the state is likely to face during thiscentury. The chapter contains: 1) an overview;2) observed climate trends in means and extremes;

3) global climate model (GCM) validation, methods,and projections (based on long-term average changes,extreme events, and qualitative descriptions); and4) conclusions and recommended areas for furtherresearch. To facilitate the linking of climateinformation to impacts in the eight ClimAID sectors,the state is divided into seven regions. Threeappendices describe the projection methods, outlinea proposed program for monitoring and indicators,and summarize the possible role of furtherdownscaling climate model simulations for futureassessments.

The climate hazards described in this chapter shouldbe monitored and assessed on a regular basis. Forplanning purposes, the ClimAID projections focus onthe 21st century. Although projections for thefollowing centuries are characterized by even largeruncertainties and are beyond most currentinfrastructure planning horizons, they are brieflydiscussed in Appendix A because climate change is amulti-century concern.

Observed Climate Trends

Annual temperatures have been rising throughoutthe state since the start of the 20th century. State-average temperatures have increased byapproximately 0.6F per decade since 1970, withwinter warming exceeding 1.1F per decade.

Since 1900, there has been no discernable trendin annual precipitation, which is characterized bylarge interannual and interdecadal variability.

Sea level along New Yorks coastline has risen byapproximately 1 foot since 1900.

Intense precipitation events (heavy downpours)have increased in recent decades.

Climate Projections

These are the key climate projections for mean changesand changes in extreme events.

Mean Changes

Mean temperature increase is extremely likely thiscentury. Climate models with a range of greenhousegas emissions scenarios indicate that temperaturesacross New York State1 may increase 1.53.0F by

the 2020s,2

3.05.5F by the 2050s and 4.09.0F bythe 2080s.

While most climate models project a small increase inannual precipitation, interannual and interdecadalvariability are expected to continue to be larger thanthe trends associated with human activities. Projectedprecipitation increases are largest in winter, and smalldecreases may occur in late summer/early fall.

Rising sea levels are extremely likely this century.Sea level rise projections for the coast and tidalHudson River based on GCM methods are 15inches by the 2020s, 512 inches by the 2050s, and

823 inches by the 2080s. There is a possibility that sea level rise may exceed

projections based on GCM methods, if the meltingof the Greenland and West Antarctic Ice Sheetscontinues to accelerate. A rapid ice melt scenario,based on observed rates of melting and paleoclimaterecords, yields sea level rise of 3755 inches by the2080s.

Changes in Extreme Events3

Extreme heat events are very likely to increase andextreme cold events are very likely to decreasethroughout New York State.

Intense precipitation events are likely to increase.Short-duration warm season droughts will morelikely than not become more common.

Coastal flooding associated with sea level rise is verylikely to increase.

A Note on Potential Changes in Climate Variability

Climate variability refers to temporal fluctuations aboutthe mean at daily, seasonal, annual, and decadaltimescales. The quantitative projection methods inClimAID generally assume climate variability will remainunchanged as long-term average conditions shift. As aresult of changing long-term averages alone, some types ofextreme events are projected to become more frequent,longer, and intense (e.g., heat events), while events at theother extreme (e.g., cold events) are projected to decrease.


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17Chapter 1 Climate Risks

In the case of brief intense rain events (for which onlyqualitative projections can be provided), both the meanand variability are projected to increase, based on acombination of climate model simulations, theoreticalunderstanding, and observed trends. Both heavyprecipitation events and warm season droughts (which

depend on several climate variables) are projected tobecome more frequent and intense during this century.Whether extreme multi-year droughts will becomemore frequent and intense than at present is a questionthat is not fully answerable today. Historicalobservations of large interannual precipitationvariability suggest that extreme drought at a variety oftimescales will continue to be a risk for the regionduring the 21st century.

1.1 Climate Change in New York State

Global average temperatures and sea levels have beenincreasing for the last century and have beenaccompanied by other changes in the Earths climate.As these trends continue, climate change isincreasingly being recognized as a major globalconcern. An international panel of leading climatescientists, the Intergovernmental Panel on ClimateChange (IPCC), was formed in 1988 by the WorldMeteorological Organization and the United NationsEnvironment Programme to provide objective and up

to-date information regarding the changing climate. Inits 2007 Fourth Assessment Report, the IPCC statesthat there is a greater than 90 percent chance thatrising global average temperatures, observed since1750, are primarily due to human activities. As hadbeen predicted in the 1800s (Ramanathan andVogelman, 1997; Charlson, 1998), the principal driverof climate change over the past century has beenincreasing levels of atmospheric greenhouse gasesassociated with fossil-fuel combustion, changing land-use practices, and other human activities. Atmosphericconcentrations of the greenhouse gas carbon dioxideare now more than one-third higher than in preindustrial times. Concentrations of other importantgreenhouse gases, including methane and nitrousoxide, have increased as well (Trenberth et al., 2007).Largely as a result of work done by the IPCC and theUnited Nations Framework Convention on ClimateChange (UNFCCC), efforts to mitigate the severity ofclimate change by limiting levels of greenhouse gasemissions are under way globally.

Some impacts from climate change are inevitable,because warming attributed to greenhouse gas forcingmechanisms is already influencing other climateprocesses, some of which occur over a long period oftime. Responses to climate change have grownbeyond a focus on mitigation to include adaptation

measures in an effort to minimize the current impactsof climate change and to prepare for unavoidablefuture impacts. Each ClimAID sector used theclimate-hazard information described in this chapterto advance understanding of climate change impactswithin the state, with the goal of helping to minimizethe harmful consequences of climate change andleverage the benefits.

New York State was divided into seven regions for thisassessment (Figure 1.1). The geographic regions aregrouped together based on a variety of factors, including

type of climate and ecosystems, watersheds, anddominant types of agricultural and economic activities.The broad geographical regions are: Western New Yorkand the Great Lakes Plain, Catskill Mountains and theWest Hudson River Valley, the Southern Tier, thecoastal plain composed of the New York Citymetropolitan area and Long Island, the East Hudsonand Mohawk River Valleys, the Tug Hill Plateau, andthe Adirondack Mountains.

Climate analysis was conducted on data from 22meteorological observing stations (Figure 1.1; Table

1.1a). These stations were selected based on acombination of factors, including length of record,relative absence of missing data and consistency ofstation observing procedure, and the need for an even

Figure 1.1 ClimAID climate regions. Circles represent

meteorological stations used for the climate analysis


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18

spatial distribution of stations throughout the regionsand state.

Global climate model-based quantitative projections areprovided within each region for:

temperature, precipitation, sea level rise (coastal and Hudson Valley regions

only), and extreme events.

The potential for changes in other variables is alsodescribed, although in a more qualitative mannerbecause quantitative information for them is eitherunavailable or considered less reliable. These variablesinclude:

heat indices, frozen precipitation,

Station LocationNYSERDA

regionData

sourceLength ofcoverage

Timescale

Buffalo/NiagaraInternational Airport

Buffalo Region 1 COOP 19702008 Daily

RochesterInternational Airport

Rochester Region 1 COOP 19702008 Daily

Geneva ResearchFarm

Geneva Region 1 COOP 19702008 Daily

Fredonia Fredonia Region 1 COOP 19702008 Daily

Mohonk Lake Mohonk Lake Region 2 COOP 19702008 Daily

Port Jervis Port Jervis Region 2 COOP 19702008 Daily

Walton Walton Region 2 COOP 19702008 Daily

Binghamton LinkField

Binghamton Region 3 COOP 19702008 Daily

Cooperstown Cooperstown Region 3 COOP 19702008 Daily

Elmira Elmira Region 3 COOP 19702008 Daily

Bridgehampton Bridgehampton Region 4 COOP 19702008 Daily

Central Park New York Region 4 COOP 19702008 Daily

Riverhead ResearchFarm

Riverhead Region 4 COOP 19702008 Daily

Region 5 COOP 19702008 Daily

Region 5 COOP 19702008 Daily

Utica - OneidaCountry Airport

Utica Region 5 COOP 19702008 Daily

Hudson Correctional Hudson Region 5 COOP 19702008 Daily

Boonville 4 SSW Boonville Region 6 COOP 19702008 Daily

Watertown Watertown Region 6 COOP 19702008 Daily

Indian Lake 2 SW Indian Lake Region 7 COOP 19702008 Daily

Peru 2 WSW Peru Region 7 COOP 19702008 Daily

Wanakena RangerSchool

Wankena Region 7 COOP 19702008 Daily

Saratoga Springs 4 S Saratoga Springs

Yorktown Heights 1 W Yorktown Heights

Table 1.1a The 22 New York State stations used in regionalbaseline averages and extreme events

ClimAID

lightning, intense precipitation of short duration, and storms (hurricanes, noreasters, and associated wind

events).

1.2 Observed Climate

This section describes New York States mean climate,trends, and key extreme events since 1900. The climateand weather that New York State has experiencedhistorically provides a context for assessing the climatechanges for the rest of this century (Section 1.3.3 andSection 1.3.4).

1.2.1 Average Temperature and

Precipitation

New York States climate can be described as humidcontinental. The average annual temperature variesfrom about 40F in the Adirondacks to about 55F inthe New York City metropolitan area (Figure 1.2). Thewettest parts of the stateincluding parts of theAdirondacks and Catskills, the Tug Hill Plateau, andportions of the New York City metropolitan areaaverage approximately 50 inches of precipitation per

year (Figure 1.3). Parts of western New York arerelatively dry, averaging about 30 inches of precipitation

per year. In all regions, precipitation is relativelyconsistent in all seasons, although droughts and floodsare nevertheless not uncommon.

Source: Northeast Regional Climate Center

Figure 1.2 Normal average temperature in New York State


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19Chapter 1 Climate Risks

1.2.2 Sea Level Rise

Prior to the Industrial Revolution, sea level had beenrising along the East Coast of the United States atrates of 0.34 to 0.43 inches per decade (Gehrels, et al.,2005; Donnelly et al., 2004), primarily because of

regional subsidence (sinking) as the Earths crustcontinues to slowly re-adjust to the melting of the icesheets since the end of the last ice age. Since theIndustrial Revolution, regional sea level has beenrising more rapidly than over the last thousand years(Holgate and Woodworth, 2004). Currently, rates ofsea level rise on New York States coastlines haveranged across the region from 0.86 to 1.5 inches perdecade, averaging 1.2 inches per decade since 1900.Sea level rise rates over this time period, measured bytide gauges, include both the effects of global warmingsince the onset of the Industrial Revolution and the

residual crustal adjustments to the removal of the icesheets. Most of the observed current climate-relatedrise in sea level over the past century can be attributedto expansion of the oceans as they warm, althoughmelting of glaciers and ice sheets may become thedominant contributor to sea level rise during thiscentury (Church et al., 2008).

1.2.3 Snowfall

New York State averages more than 40 inches per year

of snow. Snowfall varies regionally, based ontopography and the proximity to large lakes and theAtlantic Ocean (Figure 1.4). Maximum seasonal

snowfall is more than 175 inches in parts of theAdirondacks and Tug Hill Plateau, as well as in thewesternmost parts of the state. The warming influenceof the Atlantic keeps snow in the New Yorkmetropolitan region and Long Island below 36 inchesper year. Heavy snow squalls frequently occur near the

Great Lakes, generating as much as 48 inches of snowin a single storm. In southern parts of the state,snowfall amounts occasionally exceed 20 inches duringnoreasters. New York City, for example, experiencessnow storms that exceed 20 inches about once every30 years (New York State Climate Office, 2003).

1.2.4 Extreme Events

New York State is affected by extremes of heat and cold,intense rainfall and snow, and coastal flooding caused by

tropical storms and noreasters. Due to the largeregional variations in the states climate, no singleextreme event metric is appropriate for the entire state.For example, in the northern parts of the state 0F maybe an appropriate metric for some stakeholderapplications, whereas 32F is more appropriate in thesouthern coastal plain, where maritime air from theAtlantic Ocean moderates temperatures.

Extreme Temperature and Heat Waves

Extreme hot days and heat waves are thus defined inseveral ways to reflect the diversity of conditionsexperienced across New York State:

Source: Northeast Regional Climate Center Source: Northeast Regional Climate Center

Figure 1.3 Normal average precipitation in New York State Figure 1.4 Normal average snowfall in New York State


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20 ClimAID

Individual days with maximum temperatures at orabove 90F

Individual days with maximum temperatures at orabove 95F

Heat waves, defined as three consecutive days withmaximum temperatures above 90F

Extreme cold days are also defined to reflect the statesregional climate variations:

Individual days with minimum temperatures at orbelow 32F

Individual days with minimum temperatures at orbelow 0F

In all locations, the number of extreme events from yearto year is highly variable. For example, in 2002, Port

Jervis experienced temperatures of 90F or higher on 31

different days; in 2004 days with temperatures of 90For higher only occurred four times.

Extreme Precipitation and Flooding

Throughout New York State, heavy rainfall can lead toflooding in all seasons. Urban areas (due toimpermeable surfaces, including roads and buildings),steep slopes, and low-lying areas are particularlyvulnerable. In much of central and northern New YorkState, flooding is most frequent in spring, when rains

and rapid snowmelt lead to runoff. Ice jams sometimescontribute to serious flooding in very localized areasduring spring and winter as well. Farther south, inlandfloods are more frequent during the summer.

Across the state, mechanisms responsible for producingheavy rainfall vary and are generally more common nearthe coasts. Intense precipitation can be associated withsmall-scale thunderstorms, most common in thewarmer months. Large-scale coastal storms (see CoastalStorms), including cold/cool-season noreasters (whichcan produce snow and ice in addition to rain) andwarm-season tropical cyclones, can also produceintense precipitation.

Another extreme precipitation event experienced inregions of New York State is lake-enhanced snowevents. These snowfall events, which can last anywherefrom an hour to a few days, affect places downwind ofthe Great Lakes (and, to a lesser extent, the FingerLakes) in western New York. Parts of Western New York

(including Buffalo) receive snowfall from Lake Erie,while the Tug Hill region (including Watertown andOswego) experiences snowfall from Lake Ontario.Lake-enhanced snowfall is localized; areas within milesof each other can experience large differences insnowfall totals. For example, an October 2006 lake-

effect snow event produced as much as 2 feet of snow inparts of the Buffalo metropolitan area, while just 20miles away, Niagara Falls received approximately

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