responding to climate change: constraints and adaptive capacity alan foreman esp seminar 4.6.10
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Assessing Adaptations Temporal perspective: –Current variability –Observed trends in past climate –Anticipatory modeling Other perspectivesTRANSCRIPT
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Responding to Climate Change: Constraints and Adaptive Capacity
Alan ForemanESP Seminar
4.6.10
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Current Adaptive Measures
• What is an ‘adaptation’?– Altering ‘decision environments’– Physical changes– Policy changes
• Reactive vs anticipatory
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Assessing Adaptations
• Temporal perspective: – Current variability– Observed trends in past climate– Anticipatory modeling
• Other perspectives
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Current Adaptations - Interannual variability
• ENSO– Improved forecasting and information
dissemination • Problems:
– Spatial uncertainties in forecasts
– Low awareness/coordination
– Social drivers
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Current Adaptations - Observed Past Trends
• Developing vs non-developing contexts
– OECD countries
– Developing countriesQuickTime™ and a
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http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg2/en/ch17
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Adapting for the Future• Usually adaptations for future events are triggered
by current extreme events– Heat waves– Implicit recognition of problems for public health
• Long lived infrastructure:– Developed countries– Sea level rise
• Policy:– Impact assessments– Water management plans
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http://msnbcmedia.msn
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Costs
• Difficulties in measuring cost/benefit– Costs can be quantified in monetary terms– Benefits are in terms of avoided climatic
impacts
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Adaptive Capacity
• General trends vs specific adaptations– Inter- and intra- regional variations
– Specific solutions
– Limitations• Diversity of impacts, options, and complexity of
adaptation processes• Errors in studies from assuming perfect adaptation
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Estimating Adaptive Capacity
• Economic development
• Technology
• Governance structures
• Social values, perceptions and customs
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Adaptive Capacity in Developing Nations
• Often context-specific
• Heterogenous within a locality– Age, class, gender, social status
• Temporal fluctuations– Current adaptive capacities can be altered by
policy directives, social trends, or violent conflict
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Limits to Adaptation
• Technological– Social context and decision making
– Technologically feasible vs. achievable
• Financial– Local communities
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Informational Barriers
• Knowledge does not always lead to implementation
• Perceptions of vulnerability and adaptive capacity differ
• Perceptions of risk differ– Not a ‘here-and-now’ problem
• Local social institutions
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Conclusions
• Adaptation is being undertaken in both developed and developing countries– Usually a response to already evident
climate change • Capacity for adaptation is dependent on
more than simple economic barriers • Emphasis on local understanding
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Questions
• How much can we depend on predictions of adaptive capacity?
• Is there an optimal course of action for adapting to climate change in developing countries, given the financial barriers that they may face?
• Can a solely response-based adaptation policy be avoided?
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