resource magazine march/april 2015 engineering and technology

events calendarASABE CONFERENCES AND INTERNATIONAL MEETINGSTo receive more information about ASABE conferences and meetings,call ASABE at (800) 371-2723 or e-mail [email protected].

2015

May 3-5 ASABE 1st Climate Change Symposium—Adaptation and Mitigation. Chicago, Illinois, USA.

July 26-29 ASABE Annual International Meeting.New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.

Nov. 10-12 Irrigation Symposium.Long Beach, California, USA.

2016

July 17-20 ASABE Annual International Meeting.Orlando, Florida, USA.

ASABE ENDORSED EVENTS

2015

May 31- 2015 18th International Soil ConservationJune 5 Organization (ISCO). El Paso, Texas, USA.

July 5-8 CSBE Conference & Annual General Meeting.Edmonton, Alberta, Canada.

Oct. 23-26 2015 International Symposium on AnimalEnvironment and Welfare. Rongchang, China

This issue of Resource isthe final installment of atwo-part special focus:Feed the World in 2050.

In the November/December 2014magazine, Society members—John Schueller, Nicolas Kiggundu,Otto Doering, Bruce Dale—andaligned colleagues shared theirthoughts on how we need toengage to feed a projected 9+ bil-lion global population.

The critical thinking continueson these pages. ASABE members underscore that the chal-lenge involves a globally collaborative and interdisciplinaryendeavor, where ag and bio engineers will be engaged asgame changers. Linus Opara in South Africa, ChandraMadramootoo in Canada, Dick Godwin and SimonBlackmore in the U.K., Theodor Friedrich in Cuba, MarkusDemmel in Germany, Josse De Baerdemaeker in Belgium,and others from Australia, Brazil, Haiti, Switzerland, Taiwan,and the U.S.—all weigh in. Wherever I travel as your presi-dent, the greatest global challenge ever faced is constantly setbefore me. I am excited to see the dialogue continue andthank Tony Grift for his gracious overseeing as guest editor.

In light of this challenge and others, one of the mostimportant things we can do is inspire and engage the nextgeneration of engineers. As the organizational co-chair ofEngineers Week 2015, ASABE has had many responsibili-ties and diverse opportunities to serve during activities asso-

ciated with this premier event for promoting engineering. Ourmembers did an outstanding job filling needs for Future Cityjudging at the regional and national levels. They generouslycommitted to supporting Family Day and Introduce a Girl toEngineering Day. We can be proud of the exposure ASABEreceived, but most of all, we applaud Society members whoengaged in E-week to sustain and grow a dynamic engi-neering profession through outreach, education, celebra-tion, and volunteerism. Keep up the good work!

When this Resource hits your desk (or tablet or phone),ASABE members and staff will be in high gear planning forthe Annual International Meeting in New Orleans. The 2015AIM will bring many opportunities for members to engagewith each other—sharing technical progress across our pro-fession, learning more about enhancements of our impact onglobally relevant concerns, and becoming acquainted withimprovements of Society governance. I hope you are makingplans now to attend.

In closing, I want to encourage ASABE members aboutto take our inaugural spring Agricultural and BiologicalEngineering PE exam. Here’s to your success! Thanks tomembers of the PAKS committee, EOPD-414, and the PEI forengaging in resolving the content issues for the exam, writingand improving exam questions, and providing study guidesand review sessions for prospective takers. My hope is that thenew exam specifications and new time slot in the spring willhelp us stabilize our exam for many years to come.

Terry A. Howell Jr., [email protected]

from the President

Engaging Challenges

2 March/April 2015 RESOURCE

4 First Word: Does Hans Stand a Chance?Tony Grift, Guest Editor

5 New Farmers are Key to Feeding the World in 2050Krysta Harden

6 Managing the WHAT-IFS

K.C. Ting, P.E., and Kathryn C. Partlow

7 To Feed the World, We Must Save the Harvest

Umezuruike Linus Opara

8 Increasing Productivity through Cooperative Conservation

Jim Moseley

9 The Miracle of Double-Cropping in Tropical AgricultureMarcelo Duarte Monteiro, Peter Goldsmith, and Otávio Celidonio

10 Feed the World in 2050…and Nourish it, too

Maureen Mecozzi and Dyno Keatinge

11 Managing Water for Food Security

Chandra A. Madramootoo, P.Eng.

12 Rethinking Food Systems

Hans R. Herren

14 Feed the World? First Let’s Refocus Research

Jerry L. Hatfield

15 The Transdisciplinary Conundrum

Graeme Hammer

16 Three Paths to Pursue

Craig Gundersen

17 Some Thoughts from across the Pond

Dick Godwin

18 The Sustainable Intensification of CropProduction

Theodor Friedrich

19 Soil: The Key to Feeding the World

Don Erbach

20 Sustainability Starts with Research

Reza Ehsani

21 The Rise of Vertical Farms

Dickson Despommier

22 In a Word: Cooperation

Markus Demmel

23 Agricultural Technology Challenges for 2050

Josse De Baerdemaeker

24 Improving Agricultural Productivity in Developing Countries

Brian Boman and Jean Robert Estime

26 It’s not a Matter of If, but How

Jacob Bolson

27 Toward Robotic Agriculture

Simon Blackmore, CEng

28 Precision Agriculture and International Development

Sreekala Bajwa

29 Managing the Farm Microbial Ecosystem

Brian Aldridge

March/April 2015Vol. 22 No. 2

Magazine staff: Joseph C. Walker, Publisher,[email protected]; Sue Mitrovich, ManagingEditor, [email protected]; Glenn Laing,Technical Editor, [email protected];Melissa Miller, Professional Opportunitiesand Production Editor, [email protected];Consultants Listings, Sandy Rutter,[email protected].

Editorial Board: Chair Tony Grift, University ofIllinois at Urbana Champaign; Past Chair,Brian Steward, Iowa State University; BoardMembers Thomas Brumm, Iowa StateUniversity; Victor Duraj, University ofCalifornia, Davis; Israel Dunmde, Mount RoyalUniversity, Calgary; Timothy Mains, Universityof Tennessee; and Shane WIlliams, KuhnNorth America.

Resource: Engineering & Technology for aSustainable World(ISSN 1076-3333) (USPS 009-560) is pub-lished six times per year—January/February,March/April, May/June, July/August,September/October, November/December—by the American Society of Agricultural andBiological Engineers (ASABE), 2950 NilesRoad, St. Joseph, MI 49085-9659, USA.

POSTMASTER: Send address changes toResource, 2950 Niles Road, St. Joseph, MI49085-9659, USA. Periodical postage is paidat St. Joseph, MI, USA, and additional postoffices.

SUBSCRIPTIONS: Contact ASABE orderdepartment, 269-932-7004.

COPYRIGHT 2015 by American Society ofAgricultural and Biological Engineers.

Permission to reprint articles available onrequest. Reprints can be ordered in largequantities for a fee. Contact Sandy Rutter,269-932-7004. Statements in this publicationrepresent individual opinions.

Resource: Engineering & Technology for aSustainable World and ASABE assume noresponsibility for statements and opinionsexpressed by contributors. Views advanced inthe editorials are those of the contributors anddo not necessarily represent the official posi-tion of ASABE.

ON THE COVER © 3ddock | Fotolia.com

American Society ofAgricultural and

Biological Engineers2950 Niles Road

St. Joseph, MI 49085-9659, USA269.429.0300, fax [email protected], www.asabe.org

engineering and technology for a sustainable world March/April 2015

FEATURES

24

5

20

10

15

DEPARTMENTS2 President’s Message

Events Calendar

30 Professional Listings

31 Last WordWe Will Feed the World in2050Lalit Verma

The November/December 2014 issue of Resource, “Feed the Worldin 2050—Part I” was intriguing. I thought I knew what povertymeant until I read Robert Zeigler’s article. I was thrilled to seeKen Quinn’s tribute to a true American hero—Norm Borlaug.

And I was honored that World Food Prize winner Mary Dell Chilton con-tributed to the first issue of this two-part series. This second issue has avariety of outstanding contributors as well, among them DeputyU.S.Secretary of Agriculture Krysta Harden. We are in great debt to our contributors.

In 2014, NASA funded a study to develop the Human and NatureDynamics (HANDY) model, which claims that “the process of rise-and-col-lapse [of societies] is actually a recurrent cycle foundthroughout history.” It turns out that “advanced, sophis-ticated, complex, and creative civilizations can be bothfragile and impermanent.” The HANDY model assertsthat resources, as they run out, become more expensive(as we are well aware), which devastates the poor butmerely annoys the rich, thereby dividing the haves andthe have-nots (nothing new there either). Furthermore—“Collapse can be avoided and population can reach equi-librium if the per capita rate of depletion of nature isreduced to a sustainable level, and if resources are dis-tributed in a reasonably equitable fashion”—if only themodel would tell us how to do that.

This is where I thank Otto Doering for his insightsin Part 1 on “A Truly Wicked Problem,” meaning aproblem that is not amenable to solution by scientificmethods. Given that we have volumes of data, powerfulcomputers, elaborate software models, and satellitesbeaming down more data all the time, what renders anyproblem truly wicked? I’m pretty sure it has to do withthe way we evolved.

Humans, like every other land animal, evolved fromfish. The next time you hiccup, remember that it’s essen-tially an atavistic amphibian mechanism for controlling the motion of gills.Similarly, the human brain started with the brain stem, a primitive neuralcord that guided the behavior of our reptilian ancestors. Not much thinkinggoes on there, as it mainly serves low-level functions such as breathing,swallowing, and sneezing. Later, the limbic system evolved, literally on topof the brain stem, giving us emotions such as lust, anger, fear, and jealousy.Subsequently, a large mammalian feature developed, called the neocortex,which is particularly large in Homo sapiens—the “wise man” (let’s call himHans). We like to think that our behavior is mainly controlled by our threepounds of neocortex, but that’s true only when we’re not starving or freez-ing, or being chased by a bear, or confronting a burglar.

With the neocortex, cultural evolution began. We developed feelingsof connectedness and community (watch my kid while I go gather sometubers), and soon we had learning, language, marriage, lawyers, econo-

mists, politicians, and armies. Now in 2015, we must ask our twitteringHans, together with his seven billion H. sapiens friends, to solve theproblem of feeding themselves in 2050. What is the probability of Hanssucceeding?

Otto Doering is quite right to imply that the problem of feeding ninebillion people is tangled up with perceived values, biases, culture, andpolitics, rendering it impossible to solve with traditional scientific meth-ods. Does that mean we should just let the future happen?

That seems to be exactly what we’re doing. We may have a three-pound neocortex, but our deeply rooted limbic system makes us bigoted,capricious, irrational, petty, and sometimes just stupid. Europeans started

two world wars that killed 80 million people and leftentire cities in ruins. Yet historians are still trying to fig-ure out why World War I happened, and WWI was themain motivation behind Hitler’s WWII. On this side ofthe pond, scientists like me still have to be careful withthe word “evolution” because it might offend someone.Recently, Australia imposed a CO2 tax that actuallyreduced emissions, but Prime Minister Tony Abbottrepealed it. In addition, Maurice Newman, chair ofAbbott’s business advisory council, claimed thatAustralia is ill prepared for global cooling! PerhapsRonald Reagan was right when he said: “The ninescariest words in the English language are: I’m from thegovernment and I’m here to help.” Unfortunately, gov-ernment doesn’t have a monopoly on ignorance.

Yes, we can feed the world in 2050 by doing moreof the same, but in doing so we will destroy any chanceof long-term sustainability. We will see a gradual butpersistent increase in food prices due to depletion ofresources and declining crop yields, and the poor willslowly become poorer, to the point of widespreadfamine. Saying that we would leave Earth a mess forfuture generations would be a misnomer; we would leave

her in a nearly ruined condition. We will have exhausted all fossil fuels,polluted our soils with nitrogen sucked from the sky, raised atmosphericCO2 to over 500 ppm (it increased from about 300 to 400 ppm in the firsthalf of the Age of Oil), raised sea levels enough to drown coastal ecosys-tems, and depleted the aquifers.

A few centuries from now, after a long slow decline punctuated bysudden shifts and outbreaks of violence, we will reach equilibrium of prob-ably one billion people. Those survivors will look back at the 21st centurythe way we look at the Roman Empire. “What on earth happened?” theywill ask. What happened is that Homo myopicus could not rise above itslimbic brain; our doom is written in our DNA. Eventually, future archeol-ogists will uncover a CD by R.E.M. with the song “It’s the end of the worldas we know it (And I feel fine).” Then maybe they’ll understand.

Top photo courtesy of NASA GSFC.


Tony Grift, Guest EditorASABE Member

Associate ProfessorDepartment of Agricultural and Biological Engineering

University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign,

[email protected]

Feed the World in 2050Does Hans Stand a Chance?

first word

From a young age, I knew that in order tofeed the world, we needed people wholove the land to take care of it. I grew upon a peanut farm in southwest Georgia,

where I learned about the value of hard workand dedication to the land. From working withthe soybean industry to being named CEO ofthe National Association of ConservationDistricts and now in my role as USDA’s deputysecretary, I have dedicated my career to mytwin passions: agriculture and conservation.

Our nation’s farmers and ranchers havealways cared deeply about the land, but farmingas a profession has evolved tremendously overthe past 50 years. Technology and innovationhave paved the path for a successful agricul-tural sector, but more work remains. USDAcontinues to support all farmers and ranchersby helping them grow their businesses, promot-ing a strong rural economy and fostering eco-nomic growth worldwide. But at the end of theday, the most critical question of all becomes“Who will farm next?”

As deputy secretary, I have made it my mis-sion to give those interested in working the landany and all opportunities to do so. But in order tofeed nine billion people by 2050, we must securethe next generation of farmers and ranchers andgive them the tools they need to succeed.

For example, new farmers often cite accessto land and capital as their biggest barriers, soUSDA has created a one-stop shop for all newfarmer and rancher resources: www.usda.gov/newfarmers. This website is aimed at providingthose who are just getting started with a break-down of USDA programs and new farmer sto-ries that showcase the varying opportunities thatexist on the farm or ranch.

The face of agriculture is more diversethan ever before, and our programs and poli-cies must reflect this change. We are seeing anincreasing number of women, veterans,minorities, and immigrants choosing agricul-ture as their profession. From the field toresearch labs to board rooms across the country,there are more opportunities in agriculture thanever before.

It has been estimated that it will take asmuch innovation in agriculture in the next40 years as in the preceding 10,000 years to beable to feed a growing population. USDA

researchers are hard at work in locations acrossthe country developing new ideas and makingdata available to scientists all over the world inthe hopes of expanding our understanding andincreasing our efficiency in food production.

This past summer, I saw firsthand how theFeed Enhancement for Ethiopian Development(FEED) project, an activity supported byUSDA’s Food for Progress program, has

boosted milk production through better feedingpractices and farm management in Africa.Thanks to the FEED project, a young woman isrunning a largely self-sustaining farm that isemploying members of the local community.

A thriving agricultural economy plays acrucial role in food security. But as we take onthe challenges of feeding a growing global pop-ulation, it is equally critical that we deal withthe impacts of a changing climate. We haveseen firsthand the impact of increasingly severedroughts, floods, extreme temperatures, andother dramatic weather patterns. As the impactsof climate change become more prevalent,farmers and ranchers around the world willneed new tools and techniques to protect theirbottom line and ensure global food security.That is why in September, the United States,along with several of its partner countries at theUnited Nations, launched the Global Alliance

for Climate Smart Agriculture, an effort aimedat charting a more sustainable path to world-wide food security.

In the United States, farmers and ranchersare working to mitigate the impacts of climatechange by employing cutting-edge conserva-tion practices on their operations. The 2014Farm Bill provides more conservation fundingthan ever before. Going beyond the traditional

scope of government support, initiatives likethe Regional Conservation PartnershipProgram are bringing new partners to the tablewhen it comes to protecting our most preciousnatural resource: the land.

Our farmers and ranchers are incredibleenvironmental stewards, and we must continuethis legacy for generations to come. The futureof agriculture is bright, but it is up to all of usto recruit a new and diverse set of farmers andranchers in order to feed our growing worldpopulation.

KKrryyssttaa HHaarrddeenn was sworn in as DeputySecretary of USDA on August 12, 2013, after unanimous U.S. Senate confirmation. She helps lead the department, focusing onstrengthening the American agricultural economy and revitalizing rural communities.

Top photo © Fotolotti | Dreamstime.Mid-page photo courtesy of USDA.

RESOURCE March/April 2015 5

New Farmers are Key to Feeding the World in 2050Krysta Harden

USDA Deputy Secretary Krysta Harden with dairy farm owner Yetemwork Tilahun on Tilahun’s farmnear the city of Mojo, about 50 miles south of Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, in August 2014.

Creating a world with no hunger and withabundant energy, a healthy environ-ment, and resilient families and com-munities is the grand challenge we face.

Hunger is a solvable problem, and it is the rootcause of many multi-faceted, multi-scale prob-lems. Great strides have been made in hungerabatement. We believe the next step is to create acomprehensive, worldwide approach, called theworld hunger abatement task (WHAT), that willbuild on current knowledge and integrate thatknowledge in order to maximize its benefit. Thisintegration of knowledge can be achievedthrough the development of intelligent food sys-tems (IFS) that use a science-based approach tocoordinate food production, processing, and dis-tribution with sustainability and resourcemanagement.

The ProblemThe complexity of our food

systems is a major obstacle to conquering hunger. Food systemsare locally operated but globallyconnected; they encompass abroad range of physical, chemical,biological, and sociological activi-ties; and they are influenced bytime-varying, site-specific, andinterdependent variables. The com-ponents of food systems include:

• Production, which includes theactivities associated with the growth,maintenance, and harvest of plants andanimals.

• Processing and manufacturing, includingpost-harvest activities of food preparation,value-added products, and energy production.

• Distribution and utilization, whichincludes transportation, marketing, andconsumption.

• Finishing and maintenance, including thesustainable recovery and utilization of co-products, waste, and other materials.Given our limited resources, each compo-

nent must be both environmentally and eco-nomically sustainable for successfuladaptation. Impressive advances have resultedfrom research in specific areas (i.e., makingone component work better). However, a majoreffort is needed to make all the components

work together by understanding their intercon-nections, investigating the tradeoffs, and pro-viding decision support for optimization at thesystem level.

The SolutionAn information system consisting of

effective content and efficient delivery willempower farmers, manufacturers, consumers,and policy makers in their decision making.Fortunately, a variety of information technolo-gies are already available that can empower IFSplanning, design, management, and operation.

In order to build an IFS, we propose thedevelopment of a concurrent analysis platform(CAP). The purpose of a CAP is to integrateinformation and knowledge related to the sys-tem under study from various sources, performsystems analysis, evaluate systems-level per-formance, and deliver the results of the analysisbased on the most current information. Thefour key elements of a CAP are:

• System scope and objectives, with varyingdegrees of criticality.

• Resources (including human, information,physical, and financial, among others),with varying levels of implementationreadiness.

• Mission scenarios describing site-specific,initial, and boundary conditions.

• An action plan providing support for deci-sion making.Implementing a CAP requires the involve-

ment of stakeholders, like you, to build threekey information, knowledge, and wisdom(IKW) empowered elements: domain informat-ics to gather information, modeling and analysistools to process the information, and decisionsupport systems to present the information. The

outcome is a comprehensive systems analysisand integrated cyber environment that helps

the CAP users (including researchers,managers, farmers, policy makers, etc.)

identify technological, social, eco-nomic, and policy barriers, evaluatenovel solutions, and provide region-specific recommendations.

The proposed solutions will beevaluated using multiple criteria,such as quality of life and incomeimprovement, costs, resource

requirements, environmental impact,economic competitiveness, and

regional sustainability. Tradeoffs amongthese performance measures will also be

quantified. This framework is applicable toany geographic region and any food system.Building an IFS will allow us to consider all theknowledge currently available, identify areaswhere knowledge is lacking, adapt the systemas technology evolves, use real outcomes tocreate better solutions, and ultimately feed theworld in 2050.

AASSAABBEE FFeellllooww KK.. CC.. TTiinngg,, PP..EE..,, Professor andHead, Department of Agricultural andBiological Engineering, University of Illinois atUrbana-Champaign, USA; [email protected].

KKaatthhrryynn CC.. PPaarrttllooww,, Research Communicationand Grant Development Specialist, College ofAgricultural, Consumer and EnvironmentalSciences, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, USA; [email protected].

Top photo by SSccootttt BBaauueerr,, courtesy of USDA-ARS.Mid-page illustration by the authors.


Managing the WHAT-IFSK. C. Ting, P.E., and Kathryn C. Partlow

Establishing a World Hunger Abatement Task (WHAT) to Build Intelligent Food Systems (IFS)

The IFS approach considers the entire scope ofthe food system at the local, regional, andglobal scale.

Ihave been involved in agriculture all mylife, from subsistence farming with my par-ents in our rural village in eastern Nigeria toan international academic career in Africa,

New Zealand, Asia, and the Middle East. As achild, I began working on our family farm assoon as my hands were strong enough. Becausewe ate mostly what we grew, I learned what itmeans to produce a crop and save the harvest.

The global food insecurity that we facetoday is far more complex than the food insecu-rity that I experienced as a child. In addition towars and nutritional deficiencies, the globalfood system is confronted by factors that limitour capacity to produce food sustainably, suchas climate change. Additional factors are therapidly growing urban population, especially insub-Saharan Africa and Southeast Asia; therapid decline of finite natural resources, such asarable land, fresh water, and fossil energy; andthe negative impacts on our ecosystem.

First we need to engageThese challenges demand urgent and sus-

tained action from our political leadership. Butthey also call for agricultural and biologicalengineers to engage, as ASABE PresidentTerry Howell put it recently, with “colleaguesand thought leaders from around the world.”One way that we can engage is by leading theeffort to save the harvest by reducingpostharvest losses. More than a century ago,confronted with the looming catastrophe ofinsufficient food production, our forebearsresponded by expanding agricultural engineer-ing education and research, which producedradical new technologies. As recognized by ourpeers in other professions, we led the way inharnessing the tremendous power of mecha-nization, transforming agriculture into anengine of economic development.

Since then, the global food system hasbeen neglected, and it’s time for agriculturaland biological engineers to take the lead again.Now we need to save what we already grow.Over 30% of all food (equivalent to 1.3 billiontonnes) never becomes nutrition because it islost during handling and processing, or dis-carded during preparation and consumption. Inthe mid-1970s, a seminal report by the U.S.National Academy of Sciences found that the

average level of postharvest losses (~33%) wassimilar in both developing and developed coun-tries. While most losses were closer to the farmin developing countries, losses were higherdownstream, at the consumer level, in devel-oped countries.

A more recent study by the FAO showedthat the magnitude of losses has not changed.This report also showed that total food wastagewas higher in developed countries than indeveloping countries. Losses of fresh producewere particularly high and can reach 40%depending on the value chain.

Saving what we already growWe now know that intensive agriculture,

which thwarted the Malthusian apocalypse, is amajor contributor to climate change and envi-ronmental degradation. Most of the productionincreases of the past century were mainly dueto increases in cultivated area, which ofteninvolved deforestation and resulted in loss oftopsoil and biodiversity. And we know thatagriculture is not an efficient converter ofresource inputs. Some crops require more thanfour times as much fresh water as their unitweight at harvest. It is not surprising that agri-culture accounts for up to 70% of total freshwater use in regions that depend on irrigation.

In addition, the rate of yield increase ofmajor crops has continued to decline during thepast century. In Europe, North America, andAsia, where high-yielding varieties of wheat,rice, and corn (in combination with other tech-nologies) created the Green Revolution, yieldshave stagnated, implying a “yield ceiling.”While developments in biotechnology haveshown promise in breaking through the yieldceiling, they are not a panacea. Instead, savingwhat is already produced offers an immediateentry point for our strategy to feed the world in2050. Reducing postharvest losses is a worthygoal, but losses can never be zero. Therefore,determining the critical levels of waste thatwarrant technological intervention is impor-tant, along with designing and disseminatingcost-effective tools to reduce waste and identifythe weak links in the value chain.

To enhance the capacity and competitive-ness of the South African agricultural industryin particular and Africa in general, the South

African Research Chair in PostharvestTechnology was set up in 2009 at StellenboschUniversity under the Research Chairs Initiative(SARChI) of the South African Department ofScience and Technology and the NationalResearch Foundation. Through private-publicpartnerships and continent-wide networks,SARChI Postharvest Technology has developedmulti-disciplinary research in engineering andscience, with students enrolled from variouscountries in Africa. Short-term training projectshave also been implemented to improvepostharvest management in African countries,including research internships for postgraduatestudents from around the world. In addition, theChair has contributed to high-level panels andpolicy initiatives to improve postharvest tech-nology at national, continental, and global lev-els. Through these kinds of practical,collaborative efforts, we can apply the uniqueskills of agricultural and biological engineers toreduce postharvest losses, save the harvest, andfeed the world.

AASSAABBEE MMeemmbbeerr UUmmeezzuurruuiikkee LLiinnuuss OOppaarraa,,Distinguished Professor and DST/NRF South African Research Chair in PostharvestTechnology, Faculty of AgriSciences,Stellenbosch University, Stellenbosch, South Africa; [email protected].

Top photo by KKeeiitthh WWeelllleerr, courtesy of USDA-ARS.Top inset photo © Sjankauskas | Dreamstime.


We need to save what we already grow.

To Feed the World, We Must Save the HarvestUmezuruike Linus Opara

In 1977, the soil in my Indiana communityhad been slowly degraded and could notperform at peak productivity. Yet our yieldswere increasing due to new technologies—

better seeds, low-cost fertilizer relative to grainprice, chemicals that cleaned the fields of pests.As a result, we hardly noticed the productivitydecline. However, we had removed a significantamount of the “building blocks” of soil forma-tion, what soil technicians called organic matter.That slow and subtle change, hardly perceptiblefrom year to year, was beginning to limit cropperformance.

We discovered this discouraging state ofaffairs when a new crop advisor arrived on thescene. He first helped us to see the problem,and then he led us to the tools and practices weneeded to restore the natural quality of ourland. Soon our productivity increased, due tonew technology as well as the soil resource.This new concept became the mission for thewhole community.

This is the learning process in farmingcommunities. When improved soil manage-ment is combined with new technologies toyield improved crop performance, local farm-ers see the progress and become part of theeffort. Wider participation leads to improve-ment in other areas of public interest—thingslike water quality and wildlife habitat. In ourcase, we created a network of over 100 opera-tions in three counties, all working together toimprove soil quality. Managing our farm oper-ations and the watershed in which we all livedas systems—connecting yields, soil health,organic matter, water quality, and croplandresilience—was good for us as farmers andvery good for the rest of society.

Cooperative conservation provides anexcellent model for farmers and ranchers any-where who are working to meet the long-termfood, feed, fuel, and fiber needs of a growingpopulation. The key is to have local leadershipguiding all aspects of productivity, rather thanjust following the technology trail, as we did inthe decades after WWII. In fact, farmers andranchers who work the land are the only mem-bers of the food production system who canchange the way we align productivity, prof-itability, and high-quality natural resource man-agement. If we are going to feed 9 billion

people in 2050, we must fully utilize the soilresource, as well as new technology as itemerges, to improve productivity.

AGree asks farmers and ranchers of alltypes to weigh in on the challenge. We alsoconvene supply chain leaders, researchers,health experts, nutrition experts, internationalpolicy experts, and representatives from con-servation and environmental organizations.Together, these thought leaders challenge eachother to articulate collaborative means bywhich the food and agriculture system can meetthe challenges of the 21st century. Our sensiblesolutions for making cooperative conservationa reality on a broader scale include:

• Companies interested in sustainablesourcing should reward producers whoare actively engaged in collaborativeconservation. Companies should recog-nize producers who actually demonstratecontinuous, measurable sustainabilityimprovements, rather than assigning one-size-fits-all checklists.

• Agricultural groups should encouragelocal producers to spearhead coopera-tive conservation projects in their com-munities. Agencies should providetraining and professional developmentopportunities to give representatives andtechnical staff the skills needed to facili-tate these projects.

• Cooperative conservation requires time,experimentation, and adaptive manage-ment to get off the ground. To encourageproducers to engage in these initiatives,agencies should provide actively engaged

producers with regulatory certaintythrough safe harbor agreements.

• We need stronger public funding foragricultural research that supports pro-ductivity and environmental goalssimultaneously. Efforts like cooperativeconservation can inspire applicableresearch and provide a ready audience forits implementation.

• Government funding related to naturalresource management should be shiftedto support producer-led cooperativeconservation projects. The newly formedRegional Conservation PartnershipProgram, which funds landscape-scaleefforts, is a good step in this direction.

• Feeding the world while conserving nat-ural resources must be a global effort.International development initiativesshould empower producers to increasetheir yields sustainably. Cross-culturalexchange of successful conservation andproductivity strategies, including coopera-tive conservation, can benefit the globalcommunity.These recommendations will guide

AGree’s advocacy for policy change and action.Our efforts will help advance on-the-groundprojects that refine the cooperative conserva-tion model and test the model in areas wherefarmers and ranchers face unique challenges.The lessons learned from these efforts willshape our advocacy for longer-term policyaction to build the model across the U.S.

We have already seen cooperative conser-vation work in communities across the countryand around the world. I’ve seen it succeed in myown area. Having tried the top-down approachfor 30 years in U.S. farm policy, our goal is toinvest in a different approach, and then hold itup to government and private sector leaders as ashining example of what works, finally makingit a reality on a broader scale. With that accom-plished, we can ensure healthy landscapes andfood security for generations to come.

JJiimm MMoosseelleeyy is Co-chair of AGree, formerDeputy Secretary of the USDA, and owner of afarm focused on grain and vegetable produc-tion; www.foodandagpolicy.org.

Top photo by SSccootttt BBaauueerr,, courtesy of USDA-ARS.Bottom photo courtesy of AAGGrreeee.

Increasing Productivity through Cooperative ConservationJim Moseley

AGree leaders gather to learn about land conservation on a farm in eastern Kansas.


Until the early 1970s, Brazil was alarge importer of food. Now thiscountry has the largest agriculturaltrade surplus in the world.

According to the FAO, agricultural productionin Brazil has grown by more than 500% in thelast 50 years, increasing from 2.9% of worldoutput to 10.1%. The interesting thing is thatthis agricultural revolution in Brazil canbecome even greater due to new productiontechnologies, as well as the large areas ofpotential agricultural land that are currentlyunderused as low-yield pastures.

According to CONAB, Brazil’s naturalresource agency, in 1976 the center-west regionof the country, known for the vast tropicalsavanna called the cerrado, was responsible for12% of national grain output, while the south-ern region, with a temperate climate, wasresponsible for 59%. The agricultural map ofBrazil began to change in the 1970s with theuse of technologies such as lime application foracid correction of the cerrado soils. These newtechnologies and adapted seed allowed farmingto spread into the center-west, which becameBrazil’s new farming frontier, currently produc-ing almost 40% of Brazil’s total grain output.

While the first crop to be planted in thecerrado was rice, real agricultural develop-ment occurred with the improvement and con-solidation of soybean farming. The expansionof soybeans coincided with a worldwideincrease in the demand for protein without theuse of expensive and energy-intensive nitro-gen fertilizers. Soybeans became the mainsource of protein for animal feed around theworld. Currently, Brazil is the world’s secondlargest soybean producer and should becomethe largest in the next few years due to thelarge areas of pastureland that are still avail-able for cultivation.

Brazil is the world’s fifth largest countryin terms of territory, with a total area of851 million ha, of which 534 million ha areprotected, 60 million ha are used for agricul-

ture, and 198 million ha are used for pasture.Brazil could double its agricultural area with-out affecting the conservation of forest areas byconverting just a third of its pasturelands. Thisis why the FAO and the World Bank considerBrazil to have the largest potential for agricul-tural expansion in the world.

As well as horizontal growth, Brazilianagriculture has also increased its yields perhectare. An important innovation is takingplace in the cerrado region: a double-croppingsystem called safrinha. Because of the seven toeight months of rain each year, with stable tem-peratures all year round, successive crops canbe grown in a single year. The safrinha systeminvolves planting corn as a second crop soonafter the soybean harvest in the months ofJanuary to March. The corn then is harvestedfrom June to August of the same year. Bothcrops are produced without irrigation. MatoGrosso, which lies between -10° and -15° southlatitude, has become Brazil’s leading soybeanproducing state. Meanwhile, the production ofsecond-crop corn in Mato Grosso has grown inthe last ten years and is now 63% as large as thesoybean crop. The increase in second-crop cornproduction has been greater than 12% a year,and more than 335% in the last ten years. In2012, second-crop corn production surpassedfirst-crop corn.

Double-cropping of soybeans and cornhas placed Brazil in a position of importancein terms of protein and oil yields per hectare.According to an analysis by the University ofIllinois, the safrinha system out-yields temper-ate zones in energy, protein, and oil productionper hectare. The only exception is the energyyield per hectare of the double-cropping sys-tem, which is 24% less in Brazil than in Illinoisdue to Brazil’s lower corn yields.

At 64% of Midwest U.S. yields, cornyields in the tropics have not reached their fullpotential. Over the last few decades, geneticimprovements in corn have focused mainly onproduction in temperate zones, which have longdays and short, cool nights. However, new

research efforts for tropical corn have alreadygenerated good results. Corn productivity inMato Grosso has been growing by 5% a yearand while the current yield is more than 6 metric tons per hectare, some producers aredoubling this in certain areas.

According to the same University ofIllinois study, the world’s tropical agriculturalregions (between 15° north and -15° south lati-tudes) produce a combined total of 85 millionha of soybeans and corn annually. If the double-cropping system is replicated suc-cessfully in other countries in Latin America,Africa, and Asia, without increasing theplanted area, these low-latitude countriescould meet 47% of the growing energydemand, 67% of the protein demand, and70% of the additional vegetable oil demandby 2050.

Of the more than 9 billion people who willinhabit the Earth in 2050, about 53% will livein tropical countries. As a result, the impor-tance of these regions for agricultural produc-tion will be even greater. Brazil and the other28 tropical countries will certainly make largecontributions to the increase in food productionby 2050. The question is if all these countrieswill be able to adapt this promising productionmodel to their own particular situations.

MMaarrcceelloo DDuuaarrttee MMoonntteeiirroo,, Executive Director,Mato Grosso State Soybean and CornGrowers Association (APROSOJA), Brazil;[email protected].

PPeetteerr GGoollddssmmiitthh,, Director, Food andAgribusiness Program, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, USA; [email protected].

OOttáávviioo CCeelliiddoonniioo,, Executive Director, MatoGrosso Agricultural Economics Institute (IMEA),Brazil; [email protected].

Top photos by DDoouugg WWiillssoonn and PPeeggggyy GGrreebb,courtesy of USDA-ARS.


The Miracle of Double-Cropping in Tropical AgricultureMarcelo Duarte Monteiro, Peter Goldsmith, and Otávio Celidonio

If basic sustenance was the goal of agricul-ture in the past, improved nutrition must bean equivalent priority for the future. TheWorld Vegetable Center seeks to overcome

malnutrition and poverty and facilitate goodhealth in the rural and urban poor by increasingthe production, quality, consumption, and prof-itability of nutritious vegetables. We promotegood agricultural practices, work with partnersto create opportunities for employment, andemphasize effective postharvest value additionand marketing mechanisms. The WorldVegetable Center is the only not-for-profitinternational agricultural research center thathas a worldwide and exclusive mandate forvegetable research and development.

Founded in 1971 as the Asian VegetableResearch and Development Center (AVRDC),the Center’s global operations now cover sub-Saharan Africa, East and Southeast Asia, SouthAsia, Central and West Asia and North Africa,Oceania, and Central America. Agronomicpractices that conserve water and protect cropsand effective integrated pest management pack-ages are disseminated to farmers in the devel-oping world. To reduce food losses, the Centerresearches methods to maintain postharvestquality all along the vegetable value chain.

Vegetable species with tolerance to flood-ing, drought, heat, and other environmentalstresses, and with the ability to maintain yieldsin more marginal environments, are identifiedto serve as sources for public and private veg-etable breeding programs. The Center alsoseeks out suitable germplasm capable of thriv-ing under conditions of climatic uncertainty.

AVRDC plant breeders focus on open- andself-pollinated vegetable crops. We selectglobal and traditional vegetables with enhancednutrient density and production characteristicsappropriate for small-scale producers. TheCenter encourages diversity in vegetable crop-ping to reduce farmers’ risk and increase theirresilience. Furthermore, we promote widediversity in diets—an important component ofa healthy life.

The AVRDC Genebank is the world’s pre-mier collection of tropical and subtropical veg-etable genetic resources in the public domain;its seed, knowledge, and information are acces-sible to all. The Center places vegetable

germplasm with new, desirable traitssuch as resistance to viruses, fungaland bacterial diseases, and insects inthe public domain under the aus-pices of the International Treaty onPlant Genetic Resources for Foodand Agriculture (ITPGRFA), thusensuring access for both the publicand private sectors.

The Center produces seed kits ofwell-adapted, nutritious vegetablesappropriate for households, schools,prisons, and hospital gardens for peo-ple to grow their own crops. Havingaccess to own-grown vegetablesthroughout the year is especiallybeneficial for women, children, andthe elderly, who are most in need ofthe nutrients that vegetables sup-ply. The Center’s home garden kits kick-startentrepreneurship on a small scale, and they canbe the first step for families to grow themselvesout of poverty. The kits are also provided to dis-aster victims through relief agencies. With good-quality seed, victims of natural disasters cangrow vegetables on small areas of land and thusquickly add nutrients to their diet.

Over the past 40 years, AVRDC has trainedmany thousands of NARES, NGO, and privatesector personnel, and we will continue this train-ing in the future. A substantial number of agricul-tural and horticultural scientists, nutritionists,crop protection specialists, and development prac-titioners will receive training tailored to their dis-ciplines and locales, and the public sector capacityfor plant breeding and seed production will beincreased and made more functional worldwide.

Integrated action in research, capacitydevelopment, and positive policy creation todeliver sustainable agricultural intensification atthe landscape scale is required if food and nutri-tional security is to be attained through small-holder agriculture and other rural enterprises.Farmers, extension systems, universities andnational research institutes, NGOs, the privatesector, and international agencies such as theUnited Nations FAO, the Consultative Group forInternational Agricultural Research (CGIAR),and the Association of International Researchand Development Centers for Agriculture(AIRCA) need to work together to help commu-nities move from poverty to prosperity.

Most importantly, we need to get awayfrom the simplistic “Green Revolution” way ofthinking and ensure that all dimensions of agri-cultural research and development receiveappropriate, balanced, and stable investment.The old policy of allocating the lion’s shareof resources principally to staple cerealsmust change to encompass a broader spec-trum of crops and to reflect our deeperunderstanding of the role of nutrition inhealth. In addition, all scientific disciplinesrequire support, even those that may be lesspopular than the currently favored biotechnolo-gies. More emphasis is needed on applied dis-ciplines, such as plant breeding, agronomy, pestmanagement, and home economics, now andinto the future.

Managing to feed the world in 2050 is onething; however, if we fail to nourish it at thesame time, we will have placed the well-beingof a large proportion of the world’s populationat significant risk of sub-optimal health andreduced quality of life. We must seek to abolishnot only hunger, but malnutrition as well.

MMaauurreeeenn MMeeccoozzzzii,, Head of Communications,and DDyynnoo KKeeaattiinnggee,, Director General,AVRDC—The World Vegetable Center,Shanhua, Taiwan; [email protected] and [email protected].

Top photo © Danymages | Dreamstime.Mid-page photo courtesy of AAVVRRDDCC——TThheeWWoorrlldd VVeeggeettaabbllee CCeenntteerr.

Feed the World in 2050…and Nourish it, tooMaureen Mecozzi and Dyno Keatinge

We must abolish not only hunger, but malnutrition as well.


It is sometimes remarked that the world is inthe midst of several interconnected crises—a food crisis, a water crisis, and an energycrisis. All of these crises are magnified and

compounded by the effects of a changing cli-mate and the more frequent occurrences offloods and low rainfall in several parts of theworld. World hunger and malnutrition willregrettably increase if we fail to conserve ourprecious and fragile land and water resources,and better manage the energy inputs to the agri-cultural system. Agricultural and biologicalengineers are well positioned to find solutionsto these global problems. Sustainable manage-ment of natural resources, development ofbioenergy systems, and the use of biologicallyengineered systems to mitigate the impacts ofclimate change are at the heart of the solutions.

The world population is expected toincrease to about 9 billion by 2050, and theUnited Nations FAO projects that world foodsupplies will have to at least double to meet theincreased demand. In some regions, such asSoutheast Asia, food supplies may have toincrease by as much as 75%. The land base forincreasing food production is limited, particularlyin the developing world, and further land expan-sion will lead to deforestation, soil erosion, andloss of soil organic matter. Destruction of savan-nah lands will also negatively impact biodiver-sity. There is already concern in North Americaand Europe that the drainage of sensitive wet-lands for agriculture not only alters hydrologicregimes but also destroys waterfowl habitats aswell as important vegetative and aquatic species.

Many parts of the world, including the U.S.,the Middle East and North Africa, and the semi-arid tropics of India, China, Africa, and CentralAmerica, are already facing severe waterscarcity. Crop production in these regions is lim-ited by low and unpredictable rainfall. Cropyields are often too low to provide householdfood and nutrition security, let alone augmenthousehold income through the sale of surpluscommodities. Continual depletion of both sur-face water and groundwater, due to a combina-tion of high consumptive use and low rechargerates, puts both rainfed and irrigated crop pro-duction in jeopardy.

New water management technologiesand more efficient delivery and on-farmwater systems will be at the heart of the solu-tions to global food security.

On a global scale, irrigation water useaccounts for just over 70% of total freshwaterwithdrawals. There is also a growing use ofgroundwater for irrigation in areas where sur-face water does not exist or is scarce. The coun-tries with the largest areas under groundwaterirrigation are India (39 Mha), China (19 Mha),and the U.S. (17 Mha). However, given con-cerns about the sustainability of large irrigationwater withdrawals, in light of competing eco-nomic and environmental demands for water,and rainfall variability due to climate change, itis essential that the irrigation sector developmore innovative techniques to conserve water,and use less water to produce more biomass.

There are 1500 Mha of cropland globally,of which about 300 Mha are irrigated, with the

remainder being rain-fed. It is remarkablethat these 300 Mha ofirrigated land, about20% of global crop-land, produce approx-imately 40% of theworld’s food. Theimportance of irri-gated agriculture forfood security is there-fore well demon-strated. In order toimprove the perform-ance of irrigation sys-

tems, the major push is toward improved canaldelivery systems, moving from a supply-drivenirrigation network to a demand-driven systemwith gated controls, and also pipeline con-veyance systems in some cases. At the fieldscale, where possible, there are conversionsfrom flood and surface irrigation to drip sys-tems, and low-energy, low-pressure application(LEPA) sprinklers. Another recent innovation isthe implementation of precision irrigation, inwhich water application is matched to soil type,crop type, and crop growth stage.

The current evolutionary stage in center-pivot systems is variable-rate irrigation (VRI),in which management zones are defined byseveral parameters, including soil physical andchemical properties, land elevation, and farm-ing practices. Using solenoid valves and elec-tronic controllers, the application rate can bevaried by management zone. The travel time ofthe pivot can also be regulated to vary the appli-cation by management zone. One benefit ofVRI is that low elevations in the field are notoverirrigated and higher elevations are notunderirrigated. Consequently, salinity andwaterlogging are better controlled. More uni-form crop yields can be achieved, and there isless leaching of agrochemicals to the ground-water. The improved irrigation uniformitymade possible with VRI leads to water savings.

There is also potential to achieve furthersavings through the use of soil water sensors tobetter schedule irrigation applications. The goalis to use soil water and crop canopy sensors tomonitor water stress in plants, and then inputthese data into climate and crop growth modelsto predict irrigation requirements on a real-timebasis. Water savings in the range of 25% to 30%could be achieved through the implementationof the technologies that have been describedhere, and these technologies already exist.

AASSAABBEE FFeellllooww CChhaannddrraa AA.. MMaaddrraammoooottoooo,,P.Eng., James McGill Professor of Bioresource Engineering and Dean, Faculty of Agricultural and EnvironmentalSciences, McGill University, Montreal, Canada;[email protected].

Top photo by JJaacckk DDyykkiinnggaa,, courtesy of USDA-ARS.Bottom photo by the author.

Managing Water for Food SecurityChandra A. Madramootoo, P.Eng.

Precision irrigation technology in Lethbridge, Alberta, Canada.



Rethinking Food SystemsHans R. Herren

Knowledge dissemination in a form appropriate to smallholders is key to lifting the rural population of developing countries out of hunger and poverty.The Farmer Communication Programme in East Africa is addressing farmers though various channels to ensure that the messages reach their target.

The dominant narrative for nourishingthe world in 2050 tends to focus on theneed to double production in order tokeep up with current population projec-

tions of 9 billion people, as well as changingconsumption patterns. While intensive agricul-ture has delivered impressive yield increases inthe past, the focus on yield maximization hasexhausted its resource base for the long run,with an estimated 1.9 billion ha of land alreadyaffected by degradation, at an annual cost of$40 billion. In our work with key actors in agri-cultural development from the field to the pol-icy levels, Biovision Foundation and theMillennium Institute aim to move beyond thisreductionist narrative by building on the para-digmatic shift of the International Assessmentof Agricultural Knowledge, Science, andTechnology for Development (IAASTD), whichoutlines that business as usual, i.e., the GreenRevolution model, is no longer an option.

Supported by the UNEP’s 2011 GreenEconomy Report (www.unep.org/greenecon-omy/GreenEconomyReport/tabid/29846/Default.aspx), agro-ecological approaches in particu-lar are predicted to produce higher and morestable yields, better soil quality, and ultimatelymore calories, while significantly reducingwater use, land under cultivation, deforestation,and contribution to climate change. The reportused the Millennium Institute’s Threshold 21model (www.millennium-institute.org/inte-grated_planning/tools/T21/index.html), a sys-tem dynamics tool for describing and analyzingcomplex systems in support of integrateddevelopment planning.

Currently, 842 million people are suffer-ing from hunger—even though we alreadyproduce twice the number of calories neces-sary to feed the world’s population. At thesame time, obesity has doubled since 1980, andan estimated 1.4 billion adults are overweight.As a result, future pathways to nourish theworld by 2050 need to consider the complexi-ties of our food systems: who should producewhich food where and how?

Food system analyses reveal that largeefficiency gains can be obtained from produc-tion to consumption. On-farm losses amount to40% of total losses in developing countries,while household and municipal consumption

account for up to 50% of total losses in devel-oped countries. These losses of global caloriesare aggravated by changing consumption pat-terns—particularly meat-based diets reliant onanimal feed—and by channeling food crops tobiofuel production. Therefore, what we needare sustainable solutions to address pre-har-vest and post-harvest losses in developingcountries while simultaneously decreasingwaste in the global north.

To address these challenges, we are work-ing with national governments in three coun-tries (Ethiopia, Kenya, and Senegal) tointroduce system dynamics modeling and sce-nario approaches to support multi-stakeholderassessments of their agriculture and food sys-tems. These pilot programs are aimed at devel-oping guidelines for country-led assessments ofagriculture and food systems, as recommendedby the Rio+20 summit, which emphasized theneed for sustainable agricultural policies toimprove food security and eradicate hungerwith regard to the challenges of climate change,natural resource limitations, and changingdemand. These activities will also inform theSustainable Development Goals (SDGs) up to2030 that are now being developed.

In the framework of our systemicapproach to development, we are also workingwith scientists and smallholder farmers in EastAfrica to establish sustainable and innovativeproduction alternatives. With our long-termpartners, such as the International Centre ofInsect Physiology and Ecology (icipe) in Kenyaand national research organizations, we havesuccessfully implemented projects that show-case how knowledge-intensive solutions dra-matically improve farmers’ yields and income.

One example is the Push-Pull method,adopted by over 90,000 farmers in East Africa(www.push-pull.net). It builds on intercroppingcorn with Desmodium as a nitrogen-fixinglegume, which repels pests and eliminatesStriga, while the volatiles of a border crop, suchas Napier grass, attract the pests. Additional ben-efits include control of soil erosion andincreased soil fertility, fodder, and dairy produc-tion. Push-Pull is an exemplary agro-ecologicalapproach, the more so when included in agro-forestry systems and extended beyond corn.Yields are easily doubled or even tripled with

such systems without additional off-farm inputs,while the crop’s resilience in the face of weatherextremes and pests is significantly improved.

We also ensure that such knowledge-inten-sive innovations are disseminated to farmersvia the Farmer Communication Program(including the Infonet platform, www.infonet-biovision.org). As a complementing element inthe circle from research to field testing and dis-semination, we also bring these achievementsinto the policy development area for evidence-based decision-making.

Despite these efforts, and the evidencethat agro-ecological approaches are the mostpromising way forward for environmental,social, and economic reasons (for example, therate of return for biological control of the cas-sava mealybug in Africa was $247 for every$1 invested, discounted over 20 years; it bene-fited over 200 million farmers and saved anestimated 20 million lives), agro-ecologicalresearch and its dissemination remain grosslyunderfunded compared with investments inseed breeding. To nourish the world in 2050, weadvocate a systemic, holistic, and causalapproach in dealing with the constraints andcomplexities encountered along the food valuechain, from production to consumption.

HHaannss RR.. HHeerrrreenn,, (wearing cap in above photo)entomologist, farmer, and development spe-cialist, is President of the Biovision Foundation,Zurich, Switzerland (www.biovision.ch), andPresident of the Millennium Institute,Washington, D.C., USA (www.millennium-insti-tute.org). He received the 1995 World FoodPrize and the 2013 Right Livelihood Award.

Top photo © Monahan | Dreamstime.Opposite page and inset photos courtesy ofBBiioovviissiioonn FFoouunnddaattiioonn..


The estimates for feeding theworld in 2050 range fromincreases of 60% to 110%above our current production

levels for grain crops. The more interest-ing estimate for feeding the world by2050 will require a greater than 100%increase in caloric production. Over thepast 20 years, and more intensively overthe past 10 years, I have begun to focuson what will be required from our agri-cultural systems to produce enough foodto feed the ever-increasing populationwith the increasing variations in temper-ature and precipitation. At the sametime, there has been considerable focuson yield and potential yield in the dis-cussion of how to feed the world, withparticular attention given to yield-limit-ing factors. However, those discussionstend to lead us to search for a single fac-tor affecting yield. In reality, there aremultiple paths in our search for sus-tainable food production that all needto be explored to find solutions tomeeting our food needs by 2050.

Instead of focusing exclusively onyield, we need to think in terms of pro-duction efficiency (i.e., how much weproduce per unit of input supplied) andin terms of business (i.e., the return on invest-ment of agronomic decisions). What is the wateruse efficiency, nitrogen use efficiency, and radi-ation use efficiency of different crop productionsystems, and how can those efficiencies beimproved through a combination of geneticsand management systems? To address this issue,I propose that we expand our thinking and usegenetics x environment x management (G x E xM) as the framework for developing and evalu-ating new production systems. If we begin toaddress food production with a systematicapproach—how genetic resources respond tomanagement systems under different environ-ments—then we will have a clearer definition ofwhat limits yield. In other words, to understandwhat limits yield, we need to focus our attentionon the environmental and management interac-tions that contribute to yield.

One of the critical pieces of this puzzle isthe role that enhanced soil quality plays in crop

production. We have lost sight of the fact thathealthy soil provides water and nutrients and istherefore an essential component of an efficientproduction system. Our recent study on yieldgaps and yield relationships in U.S. soybeanproduction reported that mean county-levelsoybean yield was positively related to soilquality, as defined by the USDA-NRCSNational Crop Commodity Productivity Index(NCCPI). When crops are grown under rainfedconditions, which are typical of most of theworld, yield increases as soil quality improves.We are not going to solve the production prob-lem throughout the world unless we address thesoil problem and begin to improve the capacityof the soil to produce crops efficiently.

In our focus on yield, we have also neg-lected the quality of the product. We need toreorient our attention to the current state ofgrain and produce quality, and the factors thataffect overall quality. A recent letter in the jour-

nal Nature on observed dietary defi-ciencies caused by increasingatmospheric CO2 should serve as acall to devote more attention to thenutritional quality of our produce.An earlier study on global fooddemand and the sustainable intensi-fication of agriculture based its pro-jections on the caloric requirementsfor feeding the world, rather than thetonnage of produce. To create foodsecurity, we need to focus on thefactors that create nutritious andcalorie-dense food products.

It may seem that there is littlewe can to do to meet the needs of theworld population in 2050, and thatthe problem is therefore insolvable.It’s true that we cannot be satisfiedwith incremental improvements inproduction. Instead, we need to thinkabout how we can increase our foodproduction dramatically. I believethat part of the solution will be refo-cusing our research as a more holis-tic effort, bringing geneticists,agronomists, environmentalists, andsocial scientists together to developnew farming systems that are adapt-able by the producers in specificareas. That won’t be as easy, but it is

achievable, and it will allow us to develop andsustain the next agricultural revolution. That isthe task that we should embrace.

JJeerrrryy LL.. HHaattffiieelldd,, Laboratory Director,Supervisory Plant Physiologist, and Director,USDA-ARS Midwest Climate Hub, Ames, Iowa,USA; [email protected].

FFuurrtthheerr rreeaaddiinnggEgli, D. B., and J. L. Hatfield. 2014. Yield gaps

and yield relationships in central U.S. soybeanproduction systems. Agronomy J. 106(2): 560-566. doi:10.2134/agronj2013.0364.

Myers, S. S., et al. 2014. Letter: Increasing CO2threatens human nutrition. Nature 510(7503):139-142. doi:10:1038/nature13179.

Tilman, D., et al. 2011. Global food demand andthe sustainable intensification of agriculture.PNAS 108(50): 20260-20264. doi:10.1073/pnas.1116437108.

Top page photo by CChhaarrlleess MMeerrffiieelldd..Mid-page illustration by MMiicchhaaeell MMaarrttii and theauthor, photos courtesy of USDA-ARS.


Feed the World? First Let’s Refocus ResearchJerry L. Hatfield

The projected population increase from 1950 to 2050.

A chieving global food security hasmany facets. While socioeconomicand political issues, such as develop-ment of and access to markets,

improving infrastructure for transport of agri-cultural produce, and stable governance sys-tems, are all critical, we must also producemore food and do it sustainably in both devel-oped and developing countries.

Research will be essential to this chal-lenge, especially for removing impediments toimproved production for resource-poor farmersin developing countries. This includes market

development, access to agronomic knowledge,and investment in the technology and reliabilityof national support systems. We must alsoimprove the sustainability of production sys-tems in developed countries by becoming moreefficient in the use of energy, water, and nutri-ents. In all cases, maintaining the health of soiland water resources is paramount.

In my own area, crop ecophysiology andmodeling, I work in developing and developedeconomies with a focus on crop design andmanagement for improved crop adaptation. I’mparticularly interested in potential technologiesfor advanced agricultural systems because that

is where higher foodprices—which are likely—will drive the research thatincreases productivity in thecoming decades.

Crop growth and yieldare the ability of the crop tocapture resources—light,water, and nutrients—andthe efficiency with whichthe crop converts theseresources into biomass andharvestable product. Cropgrowth at critical develop-mental stages largely deter-mines the proportion of thecrop that ends up as yield,especially for our dominantcereal crops. So far, ourinterventions, throughgenetics and crop manage-ment, have targeted—andmostly optimized—the cap-ture of resources, its timingthrough the crop life cycle,and the proportion of totalgrowth allocated to har-vestable product, all ofwhich determine yield andprofit.

Because the approachesto improving resource cap-ture by field crops are betterunderstood, if not fullyknown or implemented, thanthe approaches to improving

resource use efficiencies, we should now focusmore research effort on the latter. The substantialdifferences in resource use efficiencies betweencrop species (e.g., corn vs. sorghum) stronglysuggest that these efficiencies can be improved.One way to do this is through the genetic designof plants; however, to date, there has been littlegenetic impact on the fundamental resource useefficiencies of plants. Here, then, is a break-through opportunity for science: Can we redesignplants to improve their resource use efficiency?And by doing so, can we take advantage of therising level of atmospheric CO2?

As a first step, measuring and understand-ing the physiological and genetic basis of theexisting variability in resource use efficienciesis critical. Fortunately, there has been a contin-uing revolution in genetics and the technologiesfor genome mapping, sequencing, and editing.Along with this is an emerging impetus forhigh-throughput phenotyping to amass volumi-nous data on plant attributes.

And that is where we face a transdiscipli-nary conundrum. Improving the resourceuse efficiency of crops could be a transfor-mational improvement in global agriculture,but achieving that transformation willrequire a broad, transdisciplinary effort.Advanced phenotyping and genotyping tech-nologies are appropriate tools, but the transfor-mation will also require know-how about whatto measure, how to measure it, and whichgenetic designs to use.

No single discipline can achieve thisalone. In fact, as we face a historic challenge,the traditional separation of disciplines that isentrenched in scientific culture is restrictingour progress. A new culture of connectivity isrequired, giving us the ability to operate effec-tively and openly across disciplines—engagingwith, and challenging, each other. Feeding theworld in 2050 demands it.

GGrraaeemmee HHaammmmeerr,, Professor of Crop Scienceand Director, Centre for Plant Science,Queensland Alliance for Agriculture and Food Innovation and ARC Centre of Excellencein Translational Photosynthesis, University ofQueensland, Brisbane, Australia;[email protected] author awash in a data stream inside an installation at the

Museum of Old and New Art, Hobart, Tasmania, photographed inJanuary 2013.

The Transdisciplinary ConundrumGraeme Hammer


A central focus of the Collegeof Agricultural, Consumer,and Environmental Sciences(ACES) at the University of

Illinois is to reduce food insecurityacross the world. I participate in theseefforts as the Soybean IndustryEndowed Professor in AgriculturalStrategy in the Department ofAgricultural and Consumer Economicsand as the Executive Director of theNational Soybean Research Laboratory(NSRL). My own research interestsconcentrate on the causes and conse-quences of food insecurity and theevaluation of food assistance pro-grams. At NSRL, we facilitate researchthat improves the yields and profitabil-ity of farmers in Illinois, we promotethe effective use of soybeans in animaland human nutrition, and we further the use ofsoybeans for human nutrition in dozens oflower-income and lower-middle income coun-tries across the world.

Hundreds of millions of people across theworld are food insecure, and many more are atrisk of being food insecure. Alleviating thisfood insecurity and the resulting health prob-lems and other consequences is the most impor-tant challenge facing the world today, and itwill be even more daunting as the populationincreases to 9 billion by 2050. Here, I articulatethree paths that we can pursue toward this goal.

Increased use of soybeans in humannutrition

Protein malnutrition is a common problemin low-income and low-to-middle income coun-tries. For most of those suffering from proteinmalnutrition, diets with animal sources of pro-tein are too expensive. When this is the case,soybeans are an excellent alternative, as theyare by far the most cost-effective source of pro-tein, they constitute a complete protein, andthey can be readily incorporated into existinglocal cuisines. Regarding that last point, as anexample, NSRL is heading up the nutritioncomponent of a recent multi-million dollargrant from USAID to the University of Illinoisto establish the Soybean Innovation Lab (SIL),

which is designed to promote the productionand use of soybeans in Feed the Future coun-tries (www.feedthefuture.gov).

For the SIL, we at NSRL are promoting soyin human nutrition through two mechanisms.First, in partnership with the World Initiative forSoy in Human Health (WISHH), we are settingup Soycows and Vitagoats, which are small-scaleproduction methods to produce soymilk. Second,we are establishing new pathways to introducein-home processing and utilization of soybeansin partnership with International Institute ofTropical Agriculture (IITA). Since soybeans arenot generally part of the diet in the countries thatthe SIL addresses, successful establishment ofsoybeans will require instruction in processingand the development of appropriate recipes forlocal cuisines.

Allowing the use of effective technologiesThere is a limited amount of land that can

be utilized to feed the world and, as the numberof people increases, this will become an evermore important constraint. To address this con-straint, farmers across the world need to be ableto use the most effective available technologiesand, currently, this entails the use of geneticallymodified seeds. Through the use of these tech-nologies, farmers can dramatically increaseyields while using less inputs and, hence, be

more sustainable. A key result is thatmore food at lower prices is madeavailable to those with limitedresources.

Unfortunately, there are variousgroups around the world who seek tolimit the use of genetically modifiedseeds, and they have been successful inmeeting this objective in some places.In the near term, this has resulted inmillions of people around the worldbeing mired in food insecurity. In thelonger term, if these groups continue tosucceed, millions of people will con-tinue to be food insecure and, morebroadly, research to generate even moreinnovative genetic modifications willbe discouraged. If a country is inter-ested in ending malnutrition across theworld, eliminating all impediments toadvanced agricultural technologies,including genetically modified prod-

ucts, is essential. Of particular importance aretechnologies related to soybeans, given theirrole as a key provider of protein in both humanand animal consumption.

Encouraging free tradeThe benefits of free trade for the well-

being of low-income people across the worldare well established. Alongside other benefits,free trade ensures lower prices, less pricevolatility, and the allocation of scarce inputs totheir most effective uses. As poor people aremost negatively affected by high food pricesand by food price volatility, free trade is espe-cially beneficial for them. Despite the provenbenefits associated with free trade, there is con-tinued resistance to opening up borders fortrade. For those who want to reduce food inse-curity in both their own country and in othercountries, promoting free trade and removingbarriers to free trade are both essential.

CCrraaiigg GGuunnddeerrsseenn,, Soybean Industry EndowedProfessor in Agricultural Strategy, Departmentof Agricultural and Consumer Economics, andExecutive Director, National Soybean ResearchLaboratory, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, USA; [email protected].

Top photo by SSccootttt BBaauueerr,, courtesy of USDA-ARS.Mid-page photo by the author.


Three Paths to PursueCraig Gundersen

Field plots of soybeans.

In the U.K., several issues were brought to ahead by the 2011 publication of the “Futureof food and farming” report—a foresightreport commissioned by the then chief sci-

entist for the U.K. government, Sir JohnBeddington (www.gov.uk/government/publica-tions/future-of-food-and-farming). Sir Johnreferred to the situation that the reportdescribes as the “the perfect storm.” The reporthighlighted six major concerns:

• Global population increase.• Changes in the size and nature of per

capita demand.• National and international governance of

the food system.• Climate change.• Competition for key resources.• Changes in the values and ethical stances

of consumers.The report also set five challenges:

• Balancing future demand with sustainablesupply and ensuring affordability.

• Ensuring stability of supply and protectingthe most vulnerable from volatility.

• Achieving global access to food and end-ing hunger.

• Managing the contribution of the foodsystem to the mitigation of climatechange.

• Maintaining biodiversity and ecosystemservices while feeding the world.My colleagues and I read the report with

much enthusiasm, only to be disappointed thatthere was no mention of the role of engineer-ing! We made an appointment to see Sir John,who agreed with us and asked for a response.As a result, “Agricultural engineering: A keydiscipline enabling agriculture to deliver globalfood security” was published by the U.K.’sInstitution of Agricultural Engineers (IAgrE) in2012 (www.iagre.org/sites/iagre.org/files/repository/IAgrEGlobal_Food_Security_v2_WEB.pdf).

The U.K. agricultural industry also rose tothe challenge, and “Feeding the future” waspublished in 2013 (http://feedingthefuture.info/report-launch). This industry report covers thefollowing topics, among others:

• The use of modern technologies toimprove the precision and efficiency ofmanagement practices.

• The use of systems-based approaches tobetter understand and manage the interac-tions between soil, water, and crop/animalprocesses.

• The development of integrated approachesfor the effective management of weeds,pests, and diseases.

• The training and professional develop-ment of researchers, practitioners, andadvisors to promote delivery of the above.

As a result of this on-going discussion, theU.K. government has launched its “agri-tech”strategy (www.gov.uk/government/publica-tions/uk-agricultural-technologies-strategy).We are still not sure how engineering will berepresented; however, the strategy reflects theissues raised by the “Feeding the future” report.The recent call for consortia to provide centersfor agricultural innovation cites the need forcross-disciplinary centers in “precision agricul-ture, engineering, and sensor technologies.”

This brings me to a major problem: the“skills gap”—the void produced by the 20 yearsof decline in agricultural research, develop-ment, and extension, which saw many mid-career agricultural engineers leave theprofession as world-class centers of excellencewere closed. Their absence makes it difficultfor recent graduates and postdocs to find expe-rienced mentors. Another concern is the lack offirsthand experience in practical agriculture ofmany current postdocs. While I fully support

the need for good science and publication, thefocus on “publish or perish” in our universitiesand research stations can distort the mission.We will not feed the world on scientific pub-lications alone, a fact that is sometimes over-looked by administrators who focus only onachieving the best academic standing fortheir university.

There are plenty of opportunities to workwith other professions. The only barriers aretime, money, and above all good leadership andgovernance. The challenges are enormous, andbecause there are so few of us, we all need towork together, using our complementary skills,to feed the world. However, by workingtogether, we will achieve this goal. Engineeringsolutions can deliver many of the short-termbenefits that we so desperately need, therebybuying time for the benefits of the so-called“pioneering research” to come to fruition.

In particular, the management of our soiland water resources is crucial, including allevi-ation of soil compaction as machine size andweight increase, improved management ofscarce irrigation water, and maintenance anddevelopment of affordable land drainage andsoil conservation measures. We also need tofocus on reducing post-harvest losses, whichare often in excess of 40% for a variety of rea-sons, from consumer wastage in the affluentworld to the lack of knowledge, capital, andinfrastructure in poorer regions.

I leave you with the reminder that we growall our food on less than 3% of the world’s sur-face, so managing our soil and water resourcesis crucial. This point is reinforced by two clas-sic quotations—from Franklin DelanoRoosevelt: “The nation that destroys its soilsdestroys itself,” and from the much-quotedphilosopher Anonymous: “Man has only a thinlayer of soil between himself and starvation.”

AASSAABBEE FFeellllooww DDiicckk GGooddwwiinn,, EmeritusProfessor of Agricultural Engineering atCranfield University, Visiting Professor atHarper Adams University, and Director, DickGodwin Associates, Silsoe, U.K.;[email protected].

Top photo © Kirsty Pargeter | Dreamstime.Mid-page photo by the author.


Some Thoughts from across the PondDick Godwin

“Man has only a thin layer of soil between himself and starvation.”

When the Food and AgriculturalOrganization (FAO) of theUnited Nations was founded in1945, it was with the objective to

fight hunger in the world. Since then, someprogress has been made. The first of theMillennium Development Goals—to halve theproportion of hungry people in the world by2015—appears within reach. At present,hunger along with poverty is more a problem ofaccess to food than of availability. Therefore,hunger is being successfully addressed in manycountries by political will and social programs.However, for the expected population of 9.2 bil-lion in 2050, global food production will haveto increase by about 70%, a conservative esti-mate considering the increased demand for ani-mal products and bioenergy and the threatsfrom climate change. Despite this challenge,FAO has revised its overall goal from reducinghunger to eradicating hunger. We can assumethat FAO member countries, in accepting thischange, are not pursuing an impossible target.

There is little hope of achieving the neces-sary production increase from expanding thecultivated land area. More than 80% of the nec-essary production increase will have to comefrom yield increases. Yet, the yield increases forall major food crops are declining. Therefore,this challenge will not be met by continuingwith a concept of farming that caused the prob-lem in the first place. The problem is not in thegenetic potential of crops or the lack of produc-tion inputs. Instead, the problem lies in thedegradation of natural resources and theiryield-related functions, which do not allowclosing the yield gap anymore.

Therefore, FAO has proposed a differentparadigm for agricultural production: sus-tainable intensification, as described in thebook Save and Grow (www.fao.org/ag/save-and-grow). Sustainable intensificationmeans achieving the highest possible pro-duction, applying all necessary technologies,while keeping the environmental impactbelow the threshold of natural recovery.

FAO would not propose this paradigmchange if it did not have “proof of application”that it actually works for farmers. Agriculturalproduction can only be considered sustainable ifthe soil health and productive capacity are main-

tained in an optimal condition. Overthe past millennia, agricultural landuse globally has led to physical,chemical, biological, and hydrologi-cal degradation of the soil, and thisprocess continues unabated on mostfarm lands. This is true for farms ofall sizes, climatic regions, and eco-nomic development levels.

The dominant global farmingparadigm is based on mechanicaltillage. In this paradigm, the “bestpractices” for crop, soil, nutrient,water, and pest management are thetechnical state of the art and are pre-sumed to be suitable for obtaining high produc-tion with limited environmental damage.However, in many cases, soil degradation andenvironmental damage can only be controlled,not avoided, and this damage is generallyaccepted as an inevitable side effect of farming.This view is now being challenged, and it isincreasingly considered outdated. Tillage-basedfarming practices cannot meet the combinedobjectives of production intensification withecosystem services that are now beingdemanded by society. In the case of the soil, thedegradation and erosion caused by tillage arealways greater, by orders of magnitude, than thenatural formation of soil. Hence, tillage sys-tems cannot be sustainable. A long list of liter-ature explores this problem, from EdwardFaulkner’s Ploughman’s Folly (1943) to themore recent Dirt: The Erosion of Civilizationsby David Montgomery (2007).

The logical response to this challenge is afarming system that does not mechanically dis-turb the soil and maintains the soil in a healthystate—a no-till system with biologically andecologically active soil. Analyzing farmers’experiences with no-till around the world, FAOhas come up with a definition for such a sys-tem, commonly known as conservation agricul-ture (CA), based on three interlinked principlesfor any land-based production system:

• Minimum or no mechanical soil distur-bance (permanently).

• Permanent organic soil cover.• Diversification of species.

When implemented correctly, CA deliverson multiple objectives: it increases yield andproduction in a sustainable way, closing the

yield gap with reduced inputs over time, whileenhancing ecosystem services. It is environ-mentally, economically, and socially sustain-able and highly productive, and it responds tothe demand for climate change adaptation andmitigation. I have seen many farmers on allcontinents improve their livelihoods and happi-ness after adopting CA on their farms. WithCA, FAO had a sound basis for sustainableintensification, and hence FAO has been pro-moting CA around the world, along with agrowing number of organizations and institu-tions. Globally, CA is growing exponentially at10 million ha per year, having reached 155 mil-lion ha in 2013, which represents 11% of globalcropland. In some countries, CA is now thedominant farming system, and the oldest CAfarms date back over 50 years.

Obviously, despite CA’s many advantages,such a complex paradigm change in farmingrequires continued policy and institutional sup-port for it to spread fast enough to help meet thechallenge of feeding the world in 2050. Thischallenge is still facing us, and it is a questionof political will, as is the eradication of hungerat the present time. Given that political will,there is no question that the challenge to feedthe world in 2050 can be met with conservationagriculture, without the need of technologicalmiracles that are yet to be invented.

AASSAABBEE MMeemmbbeerr TThheeooddoorr FFrriieeddrriicchh is co-founder of FAO’s conservation agricultureinitiative and for more than a decade has ledFAO’s global work on CA. He currently servesas FAO’s representative in Cuba;[email protected].

Top photo © Matthew Collingwood | Dreamstime.Mid-page photo by the author.

A New Paradigm for Feeding the World in 2050

The Sustainable Intensification of Crop ProductionTheodor Friedrich

By reducing the turnover time between harvest and seedingof the subsequent crop, conservation agriculture enablesfarmers in climates with restricted growing periods to growan additional crop in the same season.


How will the world’s population be fedin 2050? Soil-based plant productionhas fed humanity throughout historyand will likely continue to be our pri-

mary food source. Although most people thinklittle about soil, productive land is critical tohuman well-being. Earth has a soil resourceeasily sufficient to produce food for the world’sgrowing population, but only if attitudes, poli-cies, and practices allow that resource to beproperly managed and effectively used.

The past 36 years have seen importantadvances in plant production. Significant tech-nological advances have been made in plantgenetics, mechanization, pest control, and nutri-ent management—advances that have resultedin major increases in yields and improvementsin crop quality. It seems reasonable to expectsimilar productivity improvements to continuethrough 2050.

Although most crops are grown in soil,plants really do not care about soil. In fact, theycan be grown perfectly well without soil in con-trolled environments, such as hydroponics andaeroponics. However, plants do care aboutwater, nutrients, light, heat, and physical sup-port. Outdoor culture in good-quality soil pro-vides these growth requirements effectively,efficiently, and economically. Controlled envi-ronment agricultural production will increasebut, for economic reasons, most plant produc-tion will continue to be soil based in a naturaloutdoor environment.

Although it’s as common as dirt, soil is anextremely complex physical-chemical-biologi-cal material, the condition of which may besubjectively characterized as its tilth. Soil tilthis a result of a combination of many factors,some of which are particle size distribution,aggregate size distribution, pore size distribu-tion, water holding capacity, degree of aeration,pH, and organic matter content. Soil with goodtilth is well suited for crop production.

The overall quality of the world’s soilresource is, and will continue to be, critical tofeeding the population. Better-quality soilcan produce more and better-quality food,along with providing greater economicreturns to farmers and lower prices for con-sumers.

Unfortunately, at present, much of theworld’s soil is, for a variety of reasons, of poortilth. Fortunately, a soil with poor tilth can bephysically, chemically, or biologically modifiedto improve its condition. Improving soil charac-teristics, such as by increasing soil organic car-bon, plant rooting depth, and water holdingcapacity, can improve production efficiency.Depending on the depth and nature of the mod-ification required, treatment may be difficultand expensive. As the demand for high-qualitysoil increases, more extensive modificationswill become economically realistic, especiallyfor production of high-value specialty crops onsmall land areas.

A cause for concern is the amount of agri-cultural land being converted to commercial,residential, transportation, recreational, andother uses. If the conversion of land from agri-culture continues, as is likely, then future foodproduction may be jeopardized. Without a seri-ous food shortage, famine, or other significantevent that focuses attention on the importanceof soil, the next 36 years will see agriculturalland area decrease and soil quality degrade.

Water is also a problem. Insufficient waterseriously limits crop production. Rainfed agri-culture is at the mercy of timely rainfall, andirrigated agriculture depends on a dependable,economical, and adequate supply of water.

Even though the amount of water on Earth ishuge, the supply of fresh water is limited, and itis not always available in adequate amounts atthe right time and in the right place.Desalination of seawater, powered by sustain-able, renewable energy, must be developed toalleviate fresh water shortages. With the adop-tion of appropriate policies and development ofthe necessary infrastructure, sufficient waterfor food production, and other needs, can besupplied.

Public and political awareness of theimportance of maintaining a high-quality worldsoil resource must be heightened. Supportivegovernment policies are essential for ensuring

that agriculturally impor-tant land remains agricul-tural land, that soil ismanaged effectively, andthat its quality is enhanced.

Proper managementof the soil resource willrequire expanded efforts tounderstand soil and todevelop practices for sus-tainable soil resource man-agement. Realistically, thecomplexities of soil willcause this progress to beslow.

How will the world’spopulation be fed in 2050?Soil is the key, but it needssome help. If properly man-aged, the world’s soilresource will be adequate

and capable of producing sufficient food to meetnutritional needs. However, for all to be properlyfed in 2050, political, ethnic, nationalistic, class,economic, religious, and other strife must notinterfere with efficient use of soil to producefood and must not hinder distribution of thatfood. Unfortunately, this is where the dream ofUtopia begins. Time will tell.

AASSAABBEE FFeellllooww DDoonn EErrbbaacchh,, Past-President ofASABE and National Program Leader (Retired),USDA Agricultural Research Service;[email protected].

Top and mid-page photos © Viktor Pravdica |Dreamstime.


Soil: The Key to Feeding the World in 2050Don Erbach

Soil is the key, but it needs some help.

My personal involvement with foodproduction started when I was ateenager, tending all kinds of rowcrops on our family farm. That

experience taught me about the challengesinvolved in farming. While I was working on myPhD at the University of California, Davis, Ilearned about new management techniques, suchas precision agriculture, and was introduced tothe production of high-value crops, i.e., fruitsand vegetables, rather than the row crops that Iwas familiar with. A healthy diet requires fruitsand vegetables, but these foods are relativelyexpensive in the U.S. because they are labor-intensive, and the cost of labor is high. Althoughthere are many opportunities for automation, theproduction of fruits and vegetables is the least-mechanized area of modern agriculture.

My professional involvement in food pro-duction started with developing machines andadvanced equipment for reducing the produc-tion costs of tree crops. That includes improv-ing the efficiency and productivity ofmechanical harvesters for citrus fruit, as well asdeveloping tools for optimizing productionusing data-driven management strategies forcrop inputs. In addition to research, I have beeninvolved in extension outreach education totransfer new knowledge in fruit production togrowers. In particular, my contribution towardthe goal of sustainable food production hasbeen in detecting and managing the spread ofcrop diseases.

The devastating effects of citrus greeningdisease (also known as Huanglongbing, orHLB) on citrus production in Florida is a prime

example of how destructive a crop disease canbe, and how a single disease can endanger anentire industry. HLB is a bacterial infectioncaused by Candidatus Liberibacter asiaticus(CLas). The spread of HLB threatens the futureof Florida’s $9 billion citrus industry. Citrusproduction in Florida has dropped from240 million boxes ten years ago to 115 millionboxes last year, and HLB is the major factorbehind this decline. If we don’t find a treatment,and soon, many growers believe that the Floridacitrus industry will simply cease to exist.

To prevent the spread of a disease likeHLB, early detection at the asymptomatic stageis critical. Prevention is the best way to controlan epidemic. One of my areas of researchinvolves detecting diseases that affect fruittrees, such as HLB, at early stages using imag-ing with an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV).The Federal Aviation Administration will soonintegrate UAVs into the U.S. airspace, and agri-culture will likely be the biggest market. UAVsare an excellent tool for crop monitoring, andthey could significantly reduce the crop scout-ing costs for growers. Most importantly, bydetecting diseases at early stages, the fastspread of plant diseases could be preventedbefore crop loss occurs.

For treating pests and diseases, my col-leagues and I are focusing on physical controlmethods instead of chemical controls. For exam-ple, in the case of HLB, we are using thermother-apy to prolong the life of infected trees. Ourprototype machine covers individual trees with acollapsible hood and then uses steam to kill theHLB bacteria. It is a safe, chemical-free tech-

nique with no ill effects on the fruit. It is alsoenvironmentally friendly. There are also opportu-nities to use similar techniques to enhance nutri-ent uptake and improve irrigation efficiency.

However, research takes time and costsmoney. Sustainable agriculture will not bepossible without supportive governmentpolicies. Agricultural development should bean international priority, and policy makersshould work to promote environmentallyfriendly and sustainable production.Funding for agricultural research needs tobe increased, and special funding should bemade available for developing sustainabletechnologies.

The factors that will limit sustainable foodproduction in the near future are the decreasingavailability of land and water for agriculture,the exponential increase in the spread of pestsand diseases, and the absence of a new genera-tion of farmers—young, well-trained, and inno-vative. Incentives should be created to bringthat next generation into agriculture. Finally,consumers need to be better informed abouthow agricultural products are grown, to encour-age popular support for sustainable practices.In summary, to feed the world by 2050, a lot ofsteps need to be taken. We must start now.

AASSAABBEE MMeemmbbeerr RReezzaa EEhhssaannii,, AssociateProfessor, Department of Agricultural andBiological Engineering, University of FloridaCitrus Research and Education Center, Lake Alfred, Florida, USA; [email protected];www.crec.ifas.ufl.edu.

Top photo by SSccootttt BBaauueerr,, courtesy of USDA-ARS.Bottom photos by the author.


Sustainability Starts with ResearchReza Ehsani

Heat treatment of an HLB-infected citrus tree.

Ibegan my professional career as a laborato-ry scientist in the field of medical parasitol-ogy, investigating the molecular biology ofan infectious foodborne nematode,

Trichinella spiralis. During the course of mystudies, over more than 30 years, I becameincreasingly aware that food safety and securi-ty are linked to issues of food availability, andultimately to agricultural practices.

Now that I am no longer at the researchbench, my attention has shifted to understand-ing the details of ecosystem ecology and thenegative effects that traditional farming is hav-ing on ecosystem services and functions. I havealso become aware that there is a direct connec-tion between rapid climate change, fossil fueluse, and deforestation that favors the establish-ment of more farmland. That is when I beganexploring potential solutions that could reducethe rapid (i.e., anthropogenic) part of climatechange. The concept of raising significantamounts of food indoors using hydroponics andaeroponics (collectively known as controlledenvironment agriculture, or CEA) appeared tooffer great promise in that regard.

CEA can be carried outanywhere on Earth, it is notaffected by the weather, ituses significantly less waterthan conventional farming, itproduces no agriculturalrunoff, and it can produce awide variety of crops indoorsat commercial scale. I beganto incorporate these conceptsinto my teaching, and aftersome ten years of brainstorm-ing in the classroom, the ideaof the vertical farm became areality. As of 2014, there aremany examples of verticalfarms in Japan, Korea,Singapore, Sweden, and theU.S., with many more in theplanning stage.

In the coming years, Iexpect that there will be hun-dreds, even thousands, of ver-tical farms in operationthroughout the world. This is

because retrofitting disused buildings into func-tional vertical farms has become much easier.The recent dramatic increase in the energy effi-ciency of LED grow lights—from 28% to68%—is also very encouraging and can greatlyreduce the energy costs of indoor farming. Ihave been fortunate to be in on the ground floorof the vertical farming movement, so I am oftenasked to give presentations on the subject. Inaddition, I have traveled extensively over theyears and seen first hand the increasing difficul-ties that traditional farmers face. I considermyself an advocate for vertical farming and willcontinue to promote the idea for as long as any-one will listen.

As the vertical farm industry matures overthe next 10 to 20 years, I anticipate that govern-ments will become more supportive of the con-cept and will establish funding opportunitiesfor university-based research on the subject, asis now the case in Japan, and to a lesser extentin South Korea. The government of Singaporeis fully behind such an approach, with the long-term goal of establishing sustainable in-countryfood security, safety, and sovereignty.

The more people who learn about theadvantages of CEA, the more likely it is thatCEA, in some form, will become a regularfeature of every urban center.

As CEA evolves into a variety of systemsfor the mass production of commonly con-sumed vegetables, fruits, and herbs, more farm-land can be allowed to revert to its originalecological function, such as hardwood forest.This in turn will allow the earth to fully func-tion, once again, as our life support system.Intact terrestrial ecosystems filter our waternaturally, and forests purify the air we breathe.Without agricultural runoff, the oceans canreturn to a pH that allows shellfish and coralreefs to thrive. All this is possible once we re-invent farming and move our food productioncenters close to where most of us choose tolive: the city.

DDiicckkssoonn DDeessppoommmmiieerr,, Professor, MailmanSchool of Public Health, and Director, VerticalFarm Project, Columbia University, New York,USA; [email protected].

Top photo © Valeria Sangiovanni | Dreamstime.Bottom photo © Surut Wattanamaetee |Dreamstime.

The Rise of Vertical FarmsDickson Despommier

Organic hydroponic vegetables in a vertical garden.


At the Institute of AgriculturalEngineering and Animal Husbandryof the Bavarian Research Center forAgriculture, I coordinate the activities

in plant production engineering. The aim of ourwork is to identify the challenges and developthe contributions of agricultural engineering forsustainable plant production in Bavaria anddefine extension guidelines based on the out-comes of our applied research.

A major challenge that Germany, espe-cially Bavaria, is facing today is the impact ofclimate change, which can already be observed.In our region, climate change means that arablefarming will face more and heavier rain andmore and longer dry periods, although the aver-age annual precipitation may not change signif-icantly. These changes will require improvedsoil management, with all operations optimizedfor the changing requirements.

Earlier research has shown that manage-ment strategies known for their positive effectson soil, such as mulching or no-till planting,cannot be simply copied to our region fromother places in the world. Instead, they have tobe adapted to our situation and integrated intoour farming systems. For example, about 80%of the arable land in Bavaria is still plowed. Thereasons for this are manifold and include agro-nomic, climatic, and social factors.

Strip tillage is an example of a process thathas been successfully adapted in Bavaria.During the last few years, agricultural engi-neers and agronomists have successfullyadapted strip tillage to arable systems withlarge amounts of residues and cover crops, andcombined it with the application of liquidmanure to avoid ammonia emissions while pre-serving the soil cover.

Further challenges we expect are based onprojected resource limitations, especially phos-phorus, which is predicted to become depletedwithin the next 35 years. Since we can’t createmore phosphorus, we have to close the nutrientcycle within agricultural enterprises andbeyond. Agricultural enterprises export phos-phorus and other important nutrients in theform of agricultural products. Recycling thesenutrients back to the producer is possible; how-ever, to meet this challenge, our research has togo beyond the borders of agriculture. Civilengineering, environmental engineering, andwastewater engineering will also be involved.

In general, to meet the challenges that weface in our attempt to feed the world in 2050,we must not look to a single machine, a singleplant, a single nutrient, or a single discipline.We have to look at the production process as awhole, and multiple disciplines will have tocooperate. This cooperation will be the key to

solving the problems that agriculture faces inBavaria and around the world.

Specifically, to feed the world in 2050, weneed more intensive cooperation both withinand among scientific communities. Thisexchange has to take place horizontally amongvarious organizations and disciplines and verti-cally among the levels of basic research,applied research, and practice. In both cases,we have to overcome long-standing traditionsand resistances.

Because we all compete for funding, theorganizations that provide funding need tocreate conditions that support and enforcecooperation. This has to start with the callsfor research proposals and continue withbreaking down the obstacles to cooperationamong researchers in organizations, disci-plines, and research levels.

To enable vertical cooperation, the prac-tice of evaluating, ranking, and fundingresearchers and their institutions based solelyon publication in peer-reviewed journals has tochange. A university professor recently told methat he would very much like to work with meon a farming research project, but he simplycan’t. The work would not allow publication ina peer-reviewed journal, and working on a proj-ect without the chance of peer-reviewed publi-cation is against the rules of his university!

I am confident that the knowledge, creativ-ity, and imagination of agricultural engineersand researchers will be able to provide enoughfood for the world in 2050. However, to enablethe necessary horizontal and vertical coopera-tion, the self-perception of researchers, the tra-ditional barriers among various organizationsand disciplines, and the methods of fundingmust change. To improve how agricultureworks, we must first improve how we work.

AASSAABBEE MMeemmbbeerr MMaarrkkuuss DDeemmmmeell,, ProgramLeader, Department of Plant ProductionEngineering, Institute for AgriculturalEngineering and Animal Husbandry, Bavarian State Research Center for Agriculture, Freising-Weihenstephan, Germany;[email protected].

Top photo by PPeeggggyy GGrreebb,, courtesy of USDA-ARS.Bottom photo by HHaannss KKiirrcchhmmeeiieerr.

In a Word: CooperationMarkus Demmel

September strip tillage for sugar beets in an early cover crop of red clover.


We can start the discussion aboutfeeding the growing world popu-lation by noting that the popula-tion increase will not be evenly

spread across continents, nor will it occur inwhat are now the most productive areas of theworld. We can also expect that the housingrequirements for the growing population willbe met by occupying some arable land. At thesame time, it will be more difficult to bring newland into cultivation because of environmentaland climate change concerns, as expressed inmany recent studies. Meanwhile, the productiv-ity of available agricultural land faces the chal-lenges of soil erosion, compaction, anddegradation, as well as the increasing unpre-dictability of weather and of water resources.

The development of agricultural tech-nology and its deployment in the middle ofthis century will therefore be based on closecooperation between engineers, agronomists,crop breeders, soil scientists, and farmers.The outcome of this effort will be future pro-duction practices that both exploit andincrease biodiversity. The technologies will besimilar across the globe, but their local imple-mentations will differ. Farmers will also workin close interaction with consumers and interestgroups to obtain a license to produce.Traceability of production will mean not only“show us what you did” but also “tell us whyyou did it.”

Crop breeding technology is making rapidprogress in resistance to diseases, as well as inresistance to substances that can be used forchemical weed control. Additional breeding pro-grams, using genetic modification or other tech-niques, will result in highly productive crops by

greatly increasing photosynthetic efficiency, cre-ating what some call “turbocharged” crops. Thesecrops may be food or feed, or they may be feed-stocks for energy production or green chemicals.

Automation in agricultural production willalso be a key for sustainability. Different equip-ment sizes will be chosen based on the job,rather than on the relative size of the farm orfield. Because soil conservation implies reduc-ing soil compaction, tramlines with flexibleattachments may be used for cultivating largeareas. Another possibility is the use of swarmsof lightweight, agile machines for planting,crop maintenance, and harvesting. Thesemachines will have access to information onsoil type, local microclimate, planting depthand density, and fertilizer treatments. Becausethe planting schedule will be matched with thetreatment and harvest schedules, on-line recordkeeping will be standard practice. Spatio-tem-poral crop growth and development will becontinuously monitored by satellite or UAVs.Small robots that continuously walk the fieldsand on-plant monitors will provide additionalinformation on growth conditions and impend-ing diseases, pests, and weeds. These observa-tions will be compared to crop growth modelsso that corrective actions can be designed andimplemented in real time.

New pest invasions will become more fre-quent due to global trade. Harmful pathogensthat hide and thrive inside food plants must bedetected and eliminated. As a result, sensor net-works and spatio-temporal data analysis will berequired for optimal crop production. The mostimportant stress sensor is the plant itself, and itis possible to differentiate between differentstressors. Breeders will succeed in incorporat-ing gene expression that depends on the stres-sor and its severity. This may involve a slightchange in mechanical or optical properties atdifferent locations on the plant, or odors thatare specific to a stressor. In a similar way, weeddetection will be improved by incorporatingoptical characteristics that make weeds easilydistinguishable from crop plants and that can beprogrammed so that volunteer plants (nowweeds) are also detected. Using similar meth-ods, weed resistance to chemicals can bedetected, and mechanical, thermal, or laser-based weed removal can then proceed.

Selective harvesting of crops will be pos-sible with small, agile, autonomous harvestersthat are controlled on the basis of informationobtained during the growth stage to selectivelyharvest individual plants with the desired levelof maturity and quality.

It is unlikely that the same farmer willwork the same fields every year. Farmers willspecialize in certain crops and achieve croprotations by exchanging land with other farm-ers. These crop rotations between farmers willrequire that accurate soil information, includ-ing drainage, water holding properties, and fer-tilizer inputs, is available in on-line databases.These databases can also include fertilizer orpesticide treatments, spatially variable growthdata, and yields of previous crops so that thefollow-up farmer can assess the suitability ofthe land for a subsequent crop and make appro-priate decisions for efficient production. Thisproduction method will allow specialization ofequipment and crop production withoutexhausting the soil or bankrupting the farmer.

Reduction of fossil fuel consumption forfood production is a must, and energy crops areone possibility. Producing energy from non-food feedstocks will not limit food availability.The introduction of nitrogen-fixing plants,either in mixed cultures or by genetic modifica-tion, is another part of the solution.Phosphorous can be effectively recovered fromwaste streams. Crop breeding can improveenergy extraction from residues, eliminatingthe growers’ reliance on distant processingplants. Novel harvesting, storage, and process-ing technologies that limit food losses and foodwaste are already in place and available.

Given all these technologies, and thefuture technologies that are now in develop-ment, we can look forward to exciting cross-disciplinary activities that will eventually leadto sustainable production of food for all thepeople of the world. These technologies willcontribute to enhanced biodiversity as well asto a flexible response to rapidly changing bioticand abiotic production conditions.

AASSAABBEE MMeemmbbeerr JJoossssee DDee BBaaeerrddeemmaaeekkeerr,,Professor, Department of Biosystems, Division ofMechatronics, Biostatics, and Sensors (MeBioS),Katholieke Universiteit Leuven, Belgium;[email protected].

Photos © Tombaky | Dreamstime.com.


Agricultural Technology Challenges for 2050Josse De Baerdemaeker


Improving Agricultural Productivity in Developing CountriesBrian Boman and Jean Robert Estime

One of the 3,100 master farmers—a paysan vulgarisateur in Haitian Creole—who graduated under the Feed the Future West/WINNER project.These master farmers are primarily extension agents selected from candidates proposed by community-based organizations. They received sixmonths of training, including four mandatory courses (agriculture, environment, small farm management, and family planning/nutrition) plus twoelective courses (cereal production, vegetable production, introduction to mechanized agriculture, etc.). The photo was taken at the Bas BoenCRDD, one of the training and demonstration centers built as part of the project, located in the Cul de Sac plain just east of Port au Prince, Haiti.

Our experience includes working withagricultural producers and associa-tions in developing countries inEastern Europe, Central Asia,

Africa, the Middle East, Mexico and CentralAmerica, Southeast Asia, South America, andthe Caribbean. Each of these regions has itsown set of challenges concerning food produc-tion. However, some issues are common to alldeveloping countries, including low yields;improper post-harvest handling and storage;lack of access to long-term capital at reasonablerates; land ownership or allocation practicesthat result in uneconomic production units;degraded or non-existent infrastructure; lack ofeducation on agricultural production practices;lack of good-quality seeds, fertilizers, pesti-cides, and equipment; lack of access to exten-sion professionals who can demonstrateimproved practices; little knowledge of marketsand how to maximize returns; degraded orsalinized water and soil; and, in many cases,government instability that makes investing inagriculture risky.

With all these challenges, it is important torealize that long-term food sustainability willnot be achieved by subsistence farmers as theycurrently operate. Most of these farmers are sofocused on short-term survival that they haveno vision of the future and don’t recognize theimportance of soil stewardship, conservation,and good farming practices. Many lack the edu-cation and skills necessary to make informedproduction decisions and try new practices. So,one of the paths to increased food production indeveloping countries is to make subsistencefarmers much more productive and profitable,so that they can become entrepreneurs throughindividual breakthroughs and improved collec-tive organization. In other words, we must dis-seminate modern techniques and the best inputsto help smallholder farmers make a big quanti-tative and qualitative leap forward.

We must abandon the idea that—because we are working with poor farmers —we must promote low-cost, technicallysub-par practices. Only 21st century technol-ogy applied to all aspects of agricultural pro-duction, commercialization, and processingwill ensure long-term food security and finan-cial sustainability for subsistence farmers.

The most challenging issue is toidentify the farmers in each commu-nity who are open to progress andready to take risks to change their tra-ditional practices. Others will imitatethese leaders when they see the pro-duction and income improvements.Most important, it is essential to fostermutually rewarding business relation-ships between smallholders, largerfarmers, and agribusinesses at allphases of the agricultural value chains.

The key question is how govern-ments in developing countries can support andpromote large-scale agricultural modernizationamong subsistence farmers that will lead tonationwide food security. First, governmentsmust commit more resources to long-terminvestment in agriculture. This means fundingto repair, operate, and maintain infrastructuresuch as irrigation and drainage systems, farm-to-market roads, transportation networks, andpacking and processing facilities. Long-termagricultural loans, crop insurance, and disasterrecovery programs should be instituted.Cooperatives to allow farmers to leverage theirinputs and sell their outputs should be facili-tated, and creating efficient and honest marketsshould be a priority. In addition, governmentsmust protect and stimulate national productionthrough legal and regulatory reforms that createan enabling environment, as well as facilitatebusiness development, provide access to afford-able credit, scale-up research and extensionservices, and strengthen the rule of law.

Farmers of all socioeconomic backgroundsare resistant to changing their practices.However, when farmers can see the results ofimproved soil preparation or new varieties, theyare generally willing to consider new practices.With this in mind, it is essential to develop well-funded demonstration farms with trained per-sonnel to expedite the transfer of new orimproved technologies in developing countries.It is also important to identify and engage localfarmers in the operation of these centers.

The demonstration farms and accompany-ing training that we’ve helped set up in Haiti aspart of the USAID-funded Feed the FutureWest/WINNER project have already had atremendous impact on smallholder farm income(www.feedthefuture.gov/country/haiti-0).

Increases in production have been achieved bysome 30,000 smallholders as a result of thetraining and demonstrations conducted by WIN-NER. Overall, bean yields increased 95%, froman average of 568 kg ha-1 in 2009 to 1200 kg ha-1

in 2012. Corn yields increased 486%, from anaverage of 708 kg ha-1 in 2009 to 4,150 kg ha-1

in 2012. Rice yields increased 139%, from2,200 to 5,260 kg ha-1, mainly due to the intro-duction of the system of rice intensification(SRI). Plantain yields increased from 13,000 to20,310 kg ha-1, an increase of 56%, primarilydue to the introduction of double-row planting.

But the most striking innovation has beenthe introduction of small hoop houses with ver-tical agriculture for vegetables and flowers,which multiply farmer income more than20-fold when well implemented. Thanks to theGreenhouse Revolution, smallholders in themountains can build a hoop house in a few daysand install drip irrigation systems that allowthem to grow high-value crops throughout theyear while using every drop of water.

Over the next few decades, there will beroom for considerable increases in food production in developing countries. If localstakeholders and donors are committed for thelong term to apply high-yielding technologiesat a scale that will significantly change thebehavior and performance of subsistence farm-ers, then remarkable results can be achieved.

AASSAABBEE MMeemmbbeerr BBrriiaann BBoommaann,, “Father of the HaitiGreenhouse Revolution” and Professor, IndianRiver Research and Education Center, Universityof Florida, Fort Pierce, USA; [email protected].

JJeeaann RRoobbeerrtt EEssttiimmee,, Chief of Party, Chemonics International, USAID-Feed theFuture West/WINNER Project, Petionville, Haiti; [email protected].

Photos by DDaavviidd RRoocchhkkiinndd..


Successful adoption of vertical production and dripirrigation in a farmer-built hoop house in Haiti followingtraining by the Feed the Future West/WINNER program.

Iwork for John Deere’s application equip-ment business—that is, sprayers—whilesupporting my wife’s family farm in centralIowa. My role on the John Deere team is to

focus on aftermarket business growth opportu-nities for sprayers that originate in our factoriesin Des Moines, Iowa; Horst, The Netherlands;and Catalao, Brazil.

As I thought about food production in theyear 2050, I scanned some of recent newspaperheadlines related to agriculture, for example:“$3.24 new crop corn at the local grain eleva-tor” and “Livestock producers enjoying welldeserved profits after years of financial chal-lenges.” The agriculture news also includesdaily debates about biotechnology, environ-mental concerns, and new developments, suchas “big data” and UAVs.

What is our path to feeding nine billionpeople by the year 2050? Looking back at foodproduction in 1978, the amount of change thathas occurred in the last 36 years is remarkable,but we need more than remarkable change tomeet the challenges that are coming.

What do we need to do to support farmersin feeding nine billion mouths while workingthrough the coming changes and their impactson farm management? Looking ahead, we areentering an era of increasingly stringent envi-ronmental regulation, significant skilled laborshortages, and exponential growth in the toolsthat farmers will have access to for raising andmanaging their crops.

Environmental regulationsEnvironmental regulation may be the most

contested issue in agriculture. As I write thesewords, a rally is being staged here in DesMoines, Iowa, for increased government actionon ensuring water quality and further regula-tions on agriculture. The public is concernedabout environmental issues, and agriculture isfacing increased scrutiny for its environmentalstewardship. Rekha Basu, a columnist for ourlocal paper, The Des Moines Register, recentlywrote an editorial titled “We can’t let agricul-ture destroy our environment.”

Farmers need our help to improve theirenvironmental stewardship beyond their currentinitiatives, and they need access to economi-cally feasible technology to quantify their envi-

ronmental impacts. Muchof this technology alreadyexists, and more is com-ing. For example, by2050, I predict that allsubsurface drainage sys-tems will be activelymonitored, controlled,and filtered by intelligentwater management andbiological control tools. Because of advances insubsurface irrigation technology, millions ofacres will no longer rely solely on surface-applied crop fertigation. Strategies for deter-mining nutrient levels applied by both surfaceand subsurface systems will change radicallythanks to multi-depth soil sensor networks.These technologies will be scalable—andaffordable—for a 10,000 acre operation inwestern Illinois as well as for a smallholder insub-Saharan Africa.

Skilled labor shortagesA shortage of skilled labor is already

affecting agriculture on a global basis. Thechanging rural versus urban population demo-graphic will drive farmers to rely increasinglyon automation technology. Skilled labor willalways have a place in production agriculture,particularly for high-value crops and for tasksthat are beyond the abilities of a machine.However, the skilled labor shortage also carriesover to the agribusiness supply chain, rangingfrom equipment dealerships to agriculturalservice providers. We must have more collabo-rative efforts by industry, agricultural organiza-tions, and government to encourage ruralpopulation placement and to attract ambitiousyoung people to the agricultural sector.

Farm management toolsUAVs, big data, biotechnology—producers

are encountering these new terms, and many oth-ers, much more often. This new, technical vocab-ulary for farming brings a few thoughts to mind:

I’m not sure when “data” was transformedto “big data,” but searching on “big data”returns 15.9 million hits on Google. Eventhough we now have big data, data managementwill still be a challenge in 2050 because therewill be so much more data to manage. What isthe economic value of all these data? Many

farmers who started collecting yield monitordata in 1992 still struggle with using those datafor strategic planning. Gathering big data is notenough. We must provide solutions that allowfarmers to extract value from data.

As we provide farmers with continuedimprovements in crop production through tech-nology solutions—such as UAVs, sensor net-works, and other complex devices—what doesthe service and support model look like? Is theservice technician who’s tasked with supportinga 600 horsepower tractor the same technicianwho supports a fleet of UAVs? What does thecustomer support strategy look like for a sub-surface biological water filtration system?Deploying useful technology is not enough. Wemust also provide a service and support infra-structure to keep that technology running.

Biotechnology in North American cropproduction has nearly 20 years of field experi-ence, and the debate about biotechnology is asstrong as ever. Public concern about biotech-nology continues, while—within the agricul-tural sector—biotechnology is seen as a usefultool for feeding the future population. We mustrecognize that consumers want diverse choices,which has been demonstrated by the growingacceptance of biotechnology, but also by thegrowth in specialty markets, such as organicfarming.

Where will we be in 2050? Even morediversified than we are in 2014, and the debatewill continue. However, for the sake of nine bil-lion people—and through engineeringadvances in energy, soil, air, water, food, andfiber—we will meet the challenge.

AASSAABBEE MMeemmbbeerr JJaaccoobb BBoollssoonn,, Product LineAftermarket Manager, Application Equipment,John Deere Des Moines Works, Des Moines,Iowa, USA; [email protected].

Top photo © Wojciech Plonka | Dreamstime.Inset photo © Artiso | Dreamstime.


It’s not a Matter of If, but HowJacob Bolson

Mechanized agriculture uses massiveamounts of energy in myriadforms, from the energy associatedwith chemical pesticides and fertil-

izers, to the tractors and implements and thefuel needed to power them. This energy is oftenwasted when it goes off-target. It’s also expen-sive and will become more so in the future.Smart machines should use the minimumamount of energy to turn the natural environ-ment into useful agriculture, thus saving energyand reducing costs.

Let me give an example of how the currentsystem uses too much energy. I estimate that upto 90% of the energy going into traditional cul-tivation is needed to repair the damage causedby the machines themselves. Each horizontalkilonewton of draft requires a vertical kilonew-ton for traction, which causes soil compaction.Therefore, without vehicle trafficking, 60% to70% of the tillage energy would not be needed.If we retain just the 20% to 30% that is used foroccasional deep loosening of the soil, we cansee that there should be significant energy sav-ings by not compacting the soil in the firstplace. In other words, if we can find a way toavoid dragging metal through the soil, we cannullify the compaction problem.

Currently, tractors, combines, and otheragricultural machines are increasing in size dueto economies of scale. However, as themachines get bigger, the opportunity to workthe fields gets smaller due to the fragile struc-ture of the soil, especially when wet. This cyclecan only be broken by making the machinessignificantly lighter so as not to damage thesoil, and thus expand the time available forfield operations.

Most new large tractors have autosteer sys-tems that allow much more accurate positioningto avoid overlap and skip in field treatments. Thatimprovement saves 10% to 15% of the time andoperating costs. In addition, many tractors nowuse a CAN bus for internal system managementand an ISOBUS to communicate with attachedimplements. Instead of the tractor controlling theimplement, the implement controls the tractor.

Telemetry is another innovation that allowsnew levels of management. New combine har-vesters are x-by-wire, so a lot of data about themachine is digitally available. Some models can

even transmit this informa-tion back to the factory foranalysis. If the machinestarts to operate outside ofnormal tolerances, say a beltstarts to slip, the driver canbe alerted via mobile phonebefore the problem becomesa disaster.

There are many other examples like this.So how do we take advantage of these newtechnologies? One way is to continue makingincremental improvements to the current sys-tem. An alternative approach would be to startwith a whole new paradigm.

We know that farmers today have conflict-ing pressures—new legislation, environmentalregulations, and commodity price fluctuations,to name a few. All of these pressures push farm-ers toward more efficient production.Combining these pressures with the opportuni-ties presented by new technologies can lead toa new mechanization system that addresses allthe concerns—environment, economics, andenergy efficiency—in a new way. Such a sys-tem would also be based on plant needs, usingprecision agriculture to address the temporaland spatial variability of crops.

Can we develop a new system of agricul-tural mechanization that can assess cropvariability in real time and use only the min-imum amount of energy required to supportcrop development? The answer is a qualifiedyes. We have not yet developed all the tech-nologies needed, but many have been proto-typed, and we can start to visualize how sucha system would look. My vision for the futureis one where small smart machines movearound the field independently, establishing,tending, and selectively harvesting the crops.Call it agricultural robotics.

Ten years ago, I developed an autonomoustractor that could mechanically remove weeds,thus achieving 100% chemical reduction. Backthen, the tractor was too big and used moreenergy than was needed. More recently, one ofmy former doctoral students has developed alaser weeding system that uses machine visionto recognize the species, biomass, leaf area, andposition of the meristem (growing point). Aminiature spray boom only a few centimeterswide can then apply a microdot of herbicide

directly onto the weed, thus saving 99.9% of thespray. Alternatively, a steerable 5 W laser canheat the meristem until the cells rupture and theweed becomes dormant. These devices couldbe carried on a mobile robot no bigger than anoffice desk, working around the clock, withoutdamaging the soil or crop.

Another application is selective harvesting.Currently, many vegetable crops are harvestedby hand, which is expensive even with the cheap-est labor. In addition, up to 60% of the harvestedcrop is not saleable to supermarkets because itdoes not have the desired quality attributes—toosmall, too large, incorrect cutting, blemishes,etc. Selective harvesting involves using a robotto assess all of the quality attributes and onlyharvest the produce that has ideal saleable char-acteristics. If some plants are too small, they canbe left until they grow to the correct size. Byknowing the position, size, and expected growthrate, we can schedule an accurate second or eventhird harvest in the field.

Looking at all the operations needed toestablish, care for, and harvest crops, whileminimizing inputs, we can see how such amechanization system could evolve over timeand adapt to changing circumstances. Thatadaptability is the key. We must stop definingwhat we do now by the way we have done it inthe past, and instead look at the fundamentalproblem. Only then can we create new ways ofmeeting the economic and environmentalrequirements of crop production—and do a better job of caring for the planet.

AASSAABBEE MMeemmbbeerr SSiimmoonn BBllaacckkmmoorree,, CCEEnngg,,Professor and Head of Engineering, HarperAdams University, Newport, U.K. (www.harper-adams.ac.uk/engineering), Director of theNational Centre for Precision Farming(www.harper-adams.ac.uk/NCPF), and ProjectManager of FutureFarm (www.futurefarm.eu);[email protected].

Top photo © Kwiktor | Dreamstime.Inset photo by the author.


Toward Robotic AgricultureSimon Blackmore, CEng

“Norman,” a seeding robot designed to put seed in the ground evenat field capacity (seeder to be developed this year).

As an academician, my pri-mary involvement in foodproduction is throughresearch and education. To

feed the world in 2050, our researchand educational efforts should focuson increasing food production withlimited resources under the changingclimate, minimizing food losses andwastage, and addressing poverty andpolicy issues. Precision agriculture iscritical for increasing food produc-tion with limited water, energy andland resources, and for climate adap-tation and mitigation. However, internationaldevelopment will a play key role in increasingthe efficiency of agricultural production byscaling and adapting agriculture technologiesto meet the local needs across the world.

Precision AgriculturePrecision agriculture is the application of

engineering, agricultural, information, andcommunication technologies to agriculture toincrease production efficiency and reduce risk.It involves gathering data relevant to agricul-tural production, mining information from thedata, and making informed decisions toimprove production efficiency and to lower riskby managing fields for the conditions thatalready exist or are anticipated. Such decisionsmay include what, when, where, and how muchof various inputs such as seeds and crops,tillage, water, fertilizer, pesticides, other chem-icals, and other cultivation practices would beoptimal. Precision agriculture uses informationon weather, soil, topography, field history, cropgenetics, commodity markets, and long-termclimate trends to identify short-term and long-term practices to produce nutritious and healthyfood with limited resources.

In regions with large-scale, highly mecha-nized, and technologically advanced agricul-ture, precision agriculture helps to customizemanagement practices by spatially varyinginput applications to match the specific needsof different areas within a field. This strategyreduces input losses, increases input efficiency,and results in major economic and environmen-tal benefits. Where farm sizes are small andagriculture is less mechanized, precision agri-

culture can help to develop the best manage-ment practices for individual fields or groups offields. For example, knowledge of soil type andfertility can be used to develop fertilizer appli-cation regimes. Soil, terrain, and rainfall datacan be used to develop decisions on plantingrate, planting and harvesting times, and fertil-izer application strategies. Knowledge of cli-mate patterns can help in identifying the bestcrops or varieties to plant, and whether or not toinvest in an irrigation system.

Information and communication technol-ogy (ICT) such as agricultural informatics forconverting data to decisions is a critical part ofprecision agriculture. In the past two decades,many technologies have been developed togather data on crops, soils, terrain and weather,process data into information and decisions,and communicate this information/decisions toend users. The farm machinery available indeveloped countries today has the capability toread maps and integrate crop sensors to spa-tially vary input applications to match cropneeds. Many of these machines can also relayinformation back to decision makers usingtelemetry. Irrigation systems have the ability tointegrate crop water sensors to vary waterapplication. Cell phones can be used to fly anunmanned aerial vehicle over a field to collectdata, or communicate important information tofarmers. Major seed companies have beendeveloping smart planting systems that willselect the crop variety and planting rate on-the-go to suit the needs of a specific field. ICT hasimproved agriculture globally. A good exampleis the success of cell phone applications inAfrican and Indian agriculture.

International DevelopmentWhile very efficient agricultural technolo-

gies are available in some parts of the world,many other regions are still using inefficientpractices and labor-intensive manually poweredtools. The agricultural research and educationneeds of developing countries that we repeat-edly hear include development of farm equip-ment and irrigation systems suitable for theseregions to enhance their production efficiency,production practices to conserve and protectresources, preparation for uncertain andextreme weather events, storage and transporta-tion systems that reduce food spoilage, and pro-cessing facilities that convert perishablecommodities into products with long shelf life.

International development through globalcollaboration and translational research isessential to addressing the global food chal-lenge. Scaling precision agricultural technolo-gies to suit the needs of the developing world isguaranteed to increase food production effi-ciency. I propose that we, the researchers andeducators who work in food production andprocessing, devote some of our time to interna-tional development, and that we involve ourstudents in these endeavors. Internationaldevelopment based on precision agriculturewill protect resources, contribute to mitigatingclimate change by reducing the carbon, nitro-gen, and water footprints of agriculture, adaptagriculture to new climate realities, andincrease production efficiency.

ConclusionCollaborative research to scale precision

agricultural technologies for different regionsof the world and international development inall areas of agriculture are vital for food secu-rity in the future. We should also focus on edu-cating the next generation on the food andresource realities of the world we live in, andinstill a passion for addressing the needs of ourfellow human beings.

AASSAABBEE MMeemmbbeerr SSrreeeekkaallaa BBaajjwwaa,, Professorand Chair, Department of Agricultural andBiosystems Engineering, North Dakota StateUniversity, Fargo, USA; [email protected].

Top photo courtesy of USDA-ARS.Mid-page photo © Mcpics | Dreamstime.


Precision Agricultural and International DevelopmentSreekala Bajwa

Rice farmers using modern technology.

My parents gave me an appreciationof food production through theirstewardship of the land, crops, andanimals that have been their source

of income and contentment for 70 years. Myexposure to livestock production in the beauti-ful Wiltshire countryside of southern Englandwas the foundation for my career in food ani-mal health and production. As a veterinarian, Ihave contributed to an abundant, safe, andhealthy food supply through my work as a cli-nician, researcher, and educator.

In the 1960s, when I was young, there werefew concerns about food production in the U.K.Livestock production was based on low-technol-ogy rearing systems with relatively low levels ofinfectious disease. Since then, the U.S. livestockindustry has developed a high fixed cost, lowoperating cost, low margin production systembased on animal confinement and the wide-spread use of antibiotics. Because of its ability toproduce animal-based food at a low cost, thisproduction model has been adopted around theworld, particularly in emerging economies seek-ing to meet their own protein needs. As a result,the sustainability of global animal-source foodproduction is entirely dependent on the con-straint of infectious disease, and therefore com-pletely reliant on antibiotics.

Due to public health concerns aboutantimicrobial-resistant infectious agents, theU.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA), andequivalent agencies in Europe, are now imple-menting voluntary plans with industry to phaseout the use of certain antibiotics in food ani-mals. Inevitably, widespread antimicrobial usewill disappear from food production systemsdue to public demand and policy changes. Theindustry will then be faced with the staggeringchallenge of maintaining efficient productionwithout the freedom to employ antibiotics tomanage infectious disease. When this post-antibiotic era becomes a reality, it will present agreat risk to the security and sustainability ofglobal food production through a reduction inproduction efficiency. It also means that live-stock will more likely be managed in ways thatfurther burden our environmental resources.

So how can we modify our approach tolivestock management, and refashion ourantimicrobial practices, in a way that preserves

the security and safety of our food supply?Antimicrobial use in livestock systems isalmost exclusively directed at removing or pre-venting disease by specific pathogens. Thisfocus on infectious disease control by minimiz-ing contact with or destroying bacteria is basedon the successful reductions in morbidity andmortality achieved with antimicrobial practicesover the past century. While this has clearlybeen a successful strategy, it has also led to a

pathogen-centric view of microbes. This demo-nization of microbes has slowed somewhat inrecent years due to the many studies showingthat the microbiome, the community of benefi-cial commensal microbes, coexists in a symbi-otic relationship with its host, enhancing thehost’s health and productivity by preventing theexpansion and colonization of harmfulmicrobes.

Microbial colonization of host mucosal sur-faces begins early in life, following the acquisi-tion of pioneer organisms from the mother. Thereis considerable variation in the composition ofthe microbiota during the first years of life, butthe most desirable trajectory is toward richnessand diversity. The drivers of the microbiome fallinto broad categories related to the host (e.g.,genome and epigenome), the environment (e.g.,temperature and humidity), and system inputs(e.g., nutrition, housing, and hygiene). This

process is strongly influenced by managementfactors (including antimicrobials), and it is tightlylinked to the host’s immune system.

It is evident that a healthy microbiotaserves a vital role in establishing immune com-petence and, conversely, in precipitating incom-petence and dysfunction when disturbed. Thereis also compelling evidence that antimicrobialsexert an effect beyond pathogen eradication byinfluencing the ecology of the microbiome, andsubsequently altering the host’s metabolism, aswell as the development of antimicrobial resist-ance. These effects of antimicrobials on thehost microbiota likely persist for life.

Our use of antimicrobials in animalhealth management could be transformed bya broader understanding of the beneficialrole of microbes in livestock health. Thiscould begin with a new appreciation of live-stock-based food production systems as com-plex, multi-organism ecosystems, theefficiency and productivity of which dependon potentially fragile interactions betweendifferent ecological communities—animals,microbes, and people—and their environ-ments. This change in mindset, away from theidea of microbes as a primary cause of poorhealth and instead seeing microbial communi-ties as a reflection of our success in ecosystemmanagement, would transform our currentapproach to enhancing the efficiency of live-stock-based food production.

The host organisms—ourselves and the ani-mals we raise—are microbial ecosystems withinthe greater ecosystem of the production system.We need to understand the impact of variousmanagement practices and environmentaldesigns on host-microbe interactions. Only byunderstanding the ecology of the food productionsystem can we identify and design sustainablestrategies for optimizing livestock health and pro-ductivity in particular, strategies that are notdependent on the widespread use of antibiotics.

BBrriiaann AAllddrriiddggee,, Clinical Professor, Departmentof Veterinary Clinical Medicine, University ofIllinois at Urbana-Champaign, USA; [email protected].

Top border © Lamica | Dreamstime.Mid-page illustration by KKeerrrryy HHeellmmss,, Collegeof Veterinary Medicine, University of Illinois atUrbana-Champaigna, USA.


Managing the Farm Microbial EcosystemBrian Aldridge

Overview of the food production ecosystem.


professional listings

CURRY-WILLE & ASSOCIATESCONSULTING ENGINEERS P.C.

Animal and Livestock Facility DesignFeed and Grain Processing and StorageFertilizer/Pesticide Containment Design

TSP/Manure Handling DesignAgricultural Research Facilities

AMES, IA515-232-9078

WWW.CURRYWILLE.COM

Integrated Product Development ServicesVehicles, Implements and ToolsEngineering, Design and AnalysisPrototype Build, Test and Evaluation,40,000 sq. ft. Experimental Shop.

Brad Meyer, P.E. Cedar Falls, IA319-268-6827 www.iowaengineer.com

DIEDRICHS & ASSOCIATES, Inc.

AG ENGINEERING SERVICES• AGRICULTURAL BUILDING DESIGN• MANURE STORAGE SYSTEM DESIGN• CAFO AND NPDES PERMITS• FARMSTEAD EXPANSION PLANNING

STRUCTURAL ENGINEERING SERVICE• STRUCTURAL DESIGN OF WOOD, STEEL AND

CONCRETE STRUCTURES• ENGINEER CERTIFICATIONS• STRUCTURAL INSPECTIONS

Visit our web site: www.timbertecheng.com or E-mail us [email protected]

[email protected]

154 Hughes LaneSt. Charles, MO 63301

T 636.896.9995F 636.896.9695C 314.603.6382

www.semke.com

Fred B. Semke, P.E.Principal Engineer

J.M. Miller Engineering, Inc.James M. Miller, PE, PhD, President

Idaho: Boise – Twin Falls Michigan: Ann Arbor888-206-4394 734-662-6822

www.millerengineering.come-mail: [email protected]

Agricultural, Chemical, Mechanical, & Forensic Engineers;Dairy & Food Processing Safety – Tractor & Harvester Safety – Equine & BovineAccidents; Guarding & Entanglement Accidents – Silage & Grain Storage Accidents –Warnings, Labeling, & Instruction Manuals – Worker Safety & Health (OSHA & GHS) –Chemical Application & Exposures – EPA RCRA, Clean Water, Compliance – Irrigation,Riparian, & Hydroelectric

INDUCTIVE ENGINEERINGDALE GUMZ, P.E., C.S.P.

10805 230th StreetCadott, WI 54727-5406

• Accident Reconstruction• Mechanical & Electrical• Safety Responsibilities• Product & Machine Design

715-289-4721 [email protected]

For information on rates, contact Sandy Rutter,Resource magazine

2950 Niles Rd.St. Joseph, MI 49085

tel: 269-932-7004; fax: 269-429-3852; [email protected]://www.asabe.org/publications/resource-magazine.aspx

last word

Agricultural and biological engi-neers (ABEs) will be criticallyimportant in feeding an addi-tional three billion people by

2050. Our profession’s past contributionsto safe, affordable, and abundant food areproof of that.

Ensuring food security for the projectedglobal population is a daunting challenge.However, a bright spot is that major contri-butions toward food security can beachieved without increasing production—for example, by reducing post-harvestlosses. My confidence stems from my inter-national experience as a post-harvest agri-cultural engineer.

In fact, because we need to producemore food with fewer inputs per unit of land, and then deliverthis food to the people who need it most, production increases—by themselves—won’t be enough. In addition to reducing post-harvest losses, we must also increase the efficiency of ourproduction systems. We have started to do this by combining ourengineering expertise—including precision farming, micro-irri-gation, sensor networks, robotics, and other technologies—withexpertise from other professionals, including agronomists, soilscientists, geneticists, entomologists, agricultural economists,and many others.

To do the most good, these collaborations need to be global,to match our combined expertise with local needs around theworld. This is especially important for the developing world, asthe large-scale strategies that work in developed countries mustbe adapted, using technologies that are appropriate for differentcultures and different climates with even greater resource con-straints. Fortunately, our recent successful collaborations withscientists in other fields have so far demonstrated that we cansolve the complex problems of food production with constrainedresources of land, water, and energy.

At the 2014 ASABE/CSBE Annual International Meeting inMontreal, we mapped out the global challenges and opportuni-ties for ABEs as part of the Global Engagement Day activities.To further our ABE Global Initiative, we are developing a strate-gic position paper that identifies ABEs’ importance and respon-sibility in sustainably feeding the world in 2050.

This paper outlines the challenges before us, highlights thespecific needs of three “security” themes (food security, energysecurity, and water security) in the context of sustainability andclimate change, and specifies how ASABE, its members, and itspartners will address the grand challenges. Our strategy isexpressed in the following goals:

1. Improve food productivity.2. Reduce food losses and waste.3. Enhance energy conservation and efficiency.4. Develop adaptable renewable energy systems.5. Improve water availability, conservation, and efficient use.6. Provide clean water for multiple uses (human consump-

tion, agriculture, recreation, ecosystem services, biodi-versity, etc.).

These goals may sound familiar to you—in a way, they sum-marize the long-standing efforts of the ABE profession. We canbe proud of what we’ve accomplished, so our strategy alsoinvolves showing the world who we are, what we do, and howour work has improved the quality of life for everyone. In partic-ular, we must ensure that policy-makers are aware of the provenstrengths and expertise of our profession.

Despite the challenges facing us, I believe that our future isbright, that all problems have solutions, and that our profession willbe profoundly important in the global effort to feed the world in 2050.

AASSAABBEE FFeellllooww aanndd PPaasstt PPrreessiiddeenntt LLaalliitt VVeerrmmaa,, Professor and Head,Department of Biological and Agricultural Engineering, University ofArkansas, Fayetteville, USA; [email protected].

We Will Feed the World in 2050Lalit Verma


resource magazine march/april 2015 engineering and technology

Documents