resource forecast and capacity - managing tradeoffs, enabling flow

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Resource Forecast and Capacity Managing Tradeoffs, Enabling Flow James P. MacLennan IT Portfolio Management CampIT Conference Rosemont, IL February 15-16, 2012

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"Lean" meets "Demand Management" in IT - Managing the Constraints Camp IT Conference Rosemont IL

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Page 1: Resource Forecast and Capacity - Managing Tradeoffs, Enabling Flow

Resource Forecast and Capacity

Managing Tradeoffs, Enabling Flow

James P. MacLennan

IT Portfolio Management

CampIT Conference

Rosemont, IL

February 15-16, 2012

Page 2: Resource Forecast and Capacity - Managing Tradeoffs, Enabling Flow

A Natural Law

Sound familiar?

Growing request list

Existing large backlog

Quick-changing demands

Bottlenecks on key resources / skills

Challenge Too many projects and commitments, not enough people

Solution Resource Requirements Forecast + “Local” Project Roadmaps

Manage the constrained resources and let everything else “flow”

Page 3: Resource Forecast and Capacity - Managing Tradeoffs, Enabling Flow

3

Page 4: Resource Forecast and Capacity - Managing Tradeoffs, Enabling Flow

Background / Environment

IT Resource Forecasting

Model

Mix

Method

Project Roadmaps

Demand Management in Action

Bumps in the Road

Hitting a Wall (well, a Bigger Bump)

4

Page 5: Resource Forecast and Capacity - Managing Tradeoffs, Enabling Flow

Background / Environment

IT Resource Forecasting

Model

Mix

Method

Project Roadmaps

Demand Management in Action

Bumps in the Road

Hitting a Wall (well, a Bigger Bump)

5

Page 6: Resource Forecast and Capacity - Managing Tradeoffs, Enabling Flow

6

Locations

Distribution Center

Manufacturing

Page 7: Resource Forecast and Capacity - Managing Tradeoffs, Enabling Flow

Environment

7

Revenue > $3B

Employees > 12,000

Locations > 50

IT Staff 150 +

Current Projects > 450

Technical

Architecture SAP

Notes >> SharePoint

Business

Architecture Integrated Supply Chain

Market Leader

Serial Acquirer

Page 8: Resource Forecast and Capacity - Managing Tradeoffs, Enabling Flow

8

Supply < Demand

What Questions are we Trying to Answer?

Business (external):

• Why aren’t my projects getting resources?

How are projects prioritized?

• How can we get more resources for projects?

What am I getting for my [allocated] IT budget?

IT (internal):

• Why aren’t my business partners’ projects getting resources?

How are projects prioritized?

How do we prioritize projects, operations and break-fix support

while servicing multiple constituents (business and IT)?

• Why are we working on [this activity] and not [my project]?

When can we lock-in Committed Dates?

How can we bridge from High-Level Forecast to Tactical Plan?

RPM: Framework for Answering Questions

– Define Standards for Allocation of Resources

– Facilitate Project Specification, Prioritization and Scheduling

– Maintain Visibility to Resource Allocation and Assignment

Page 9: Resource Forecast and Capacity - Managing Tradeoffs, Enabling Flow

9

IT Budget Benchmarks

Gross Margin8.3% CAGR

IT Costs4.7% CAGR

Sales (lbs)11.7% CAGR

IT Costs4.7% CAGR

06 07 08 09 10

IT Costs4.7% CAGR

Revenue9.2% CAGR

0.70%

0.80%

0.90%

1.00%

1.10%

1.20%

06 07 08 09 10

$IT as % of Revenue(2.6%) CAGR

Page 10: Resource Forecast and Capacity - Managing Tradeoffs, Enabling Flow

10

IT Budget “Mix”

Working to shift money into ETB

• Support revenue / volume growth

• Enable cost reductions / productivity

Enhance the Business (ETB)

Projects

Run the Business (RTB)

Operations, Break / Fix,

Help Desk

Variable

Software Maintenance,

Telecom, etc

35% 35% 34% 36% 35%

47%41% 41% 41%

36%

18%24% 25% 23%

29%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

ETB (Projects)

RTB

Variable

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Trends in the right direction –

• Cost Savings in Communication, HW/SW

Maintenance

• Labor shift to Projects over

“Run the business”

Page 11: Resource Forecast and Capacity - Managing Tradeoffs, Enabling Flow

Background / Environment

IT Resource Forecasting

Model

Mix

Method

Project Roadmaps

Demand Management in Action

Bumps in the Road

Hitting a Wall (well, a Bigger Bump)

11

Page 12: Resource Forecast and Capacity - Managing Tradeoffs, Enabling Flow

12

IT Budget “Mix”

Working to shift money into ETB

• Support revenue / volume growth

• Enable cost reductions / productivity

Enhance the Business (ETB)

Projects

Run the Business (RTB)

Operations, Break / Fix,

Help Desk

Variable

Software Maintenance,

Telecom, etc

35% 35% 34% 36% 35%

47%41% 41% 41%

36%

18%24% 25% 23%

29%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

ETB (Projects)

RTB

Variable

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Trends in the right direction –

• Cost Savings in Communication, HW/SW

Maintenance

• Labor shift to Projects over

“Run the business”

Page 13: Resource Forecast and Capacity - Managing Tradeoffs, Enabling Flow

13

Model

… define subcomponents / categories …

For the two major components of People Time …

RTB

ETB

Admin

Operations

Break/Fix

Improvement

Opportunity

Projects

… with enough detail to Forecast by month.

Admin Meetings, Training/Development, Vacations/Holidays

Operations Recurring maintenance, Patches – Keeping things running

Break/Fix Bug fixes, Remedy tickets – “… it used to work but now it doesn’t …”

Improvement Process documentation, user assistance, small development efforts

Opportunity Opportunity Phase of New Projects – prepping for Concept Tollgate

Projects Grouped by business, and moving through the PM stage gates

Page 14: Resource Forecast and Capacity - Managing Tradeoffs, Enabling Flow

The Forecast

14

CTS # Project NameResource

Name Jan12 Feb12 Mar12 Apr12 May12 Jun12

10574 Split SAP Company Code Erlanger 0.10 - - - - -

10764 Migrate Common Business Processes Erlanger 0.40 0.40 0.40 0.50 - -

10840 Freight All Kinds (FAK) reclassification Erlanger 0.05 - - - - -

11134 New rate upload template Erlanger 0.05 - - - - -

11238 Pre-Tendering of freight loads Erlanger 0.05 0.20 0.10 - - -

11308 Small Parcel Shipping vendor switch Erlanger 0.10 0.10 - - - -

11431 Gen'l ETB Q112: Transportation/WarehousingErlanger 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05

Break / Fix Erlanger 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.15

Operations Erlanger 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10

Holidays Erlanger 0.05 - - 0.05 - -

Other Erlanger 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05

Regular "Non-Working" Time Erlanger 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05

Vacation Erlanger - - - - - -

Warehouse/Transportation Systems Erlanger 120% 110% 90% 95% 40% 40%

Page 15: Resource Forecast and Capacity - Managing Tradeoffs, Enabling Flow

Accurate vs. Easy

15

Available Time

Hours per Day 8.0 ==> 40 Hours per Week

Days per Week 5.0 ==> 20 Days per Month

Weeks per Month 4.0 ==> 48 Weeks per Year

Months per Year 12.0 ==> 160 Hours per Month

1,920 Hours per Year

96% of 2000 hours

Forecast Calculator Display

If a task will take 6.0 days … put 0.300 in for the month 0.30

" 2.0 hours per day … " 0.250 " 0.25

" 12.0 hours per week … " 0.300 " 0.30

" 16.0 hours per month … " 0.100 " 0.10

" 3.0 weeks … " 0.750 " 0.75

Resources are … … if total work is …

Available / Underplanned less than 85% utilized (34 hours per week)

Comfortable 85% - 100% "

Busy greater than 100% " (40 hours per week)

Unavailable / Overcommitted greater than 115% " (46 hours per week)

Page 16: Resource Forecast and Capacity - Managing Tradeoffs, Enabling Flow

The Forecast

16

CTS # Project NameResource

Name Jan12 Feb12 Mar12 Apr12 May12 Jun12

10574 Split SAP Company Code Erlanger 0.10 - - - - -

10764 Migrate Common Business Processes Erlanger 0.40 0.40 0.40 0.50 - -

10840 Freight All Kinds (FAK) reclassification Erlanger 0.05 - - - - -

11134 New rate upload template Erlanger 0.05 - - - - -

11238 Pre-Tendering of freight loads Erlanger 0.05 0.20 0.10 - - -

11308 Small Parcel Shipping vendor switch Erlanger 0.10 0.10 - - - -

11431 Gen'l ETB Q112: Transportation/WarehousingErlanger 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05

Break / Fix Erlanger 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.15

Operations Erlanger 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10

Holidays Erlanger 0.05 - - 0.05 - -

Other Erlanger 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05

Regular "Non-Working" Time Erlanger 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05

Vacation Erlanger - - - - - -

Warehouse/Transportation Systems Erlanger 120% 110% 90% 95% 40% 40%

Page 17: Resource Forecast and Capacity - Managing Tradeoffs, Enabling Flow

Accurate vs. Easy

17

Available Time

Hours per Day 8.0 ==> 40 Hours per Week

Days per Week 5.0 ==> 20 Days per Month

Weeks per Month 4.0 ==> 48 Weeks per Year

Months per Year 12.0 ==> 160 Hours per Month

1,920 Hours per Year

96% of 2000 hours

Forecast Calculator Display

If a task will take 6.0 days … put 0.300 in for the month 0.30

" 2.0 hours per day … " 0.250 " 0.25

" 12.0 hours per week … " 0.300 " 0.30

" 16.0 hours per month … " 0.100 " 0.10

" 3.0 weeks … " 0.750 " 0.75

Resources are … … if total work is …

Available / Underplanned less than 85% utilized (34 hours per week)

Comfortable 85% - 100% "

Busy greater than 100% " (40 hours per week)

Unavailable / Overcommitted greater than 115% " (46 hours per week)

Page 18: Resource Forecast and Capacity - Managing Tradeoffs, Enabling Flow

Accurate vs. Easy

18

Available Time

Hours per Day 8.0 ==> 40 Hours per Week

Days per Week 5.0 ==> 21 Days per Month

Weeks per Month 4.166 ==> 50 Weeks per Year

Months per Year 12.0 ==> 167 Hours per Month

2,000 Hours per Year

100% of 2000 hours

Forecast Calculator Display

If a task will take 6.0 days … put 0.288 in for the month 0.29

" 2.0 hours per day … " 0.250 " 0.25

" 12.0 hours per week … " 0.300 " 0.30

" 16.0 hours per month … " 0.096 " 0.10

" 3.0 weeks … " 0.720 " 0.72

Resources are … … if total work is …

Available / Underplanned less than 85% utilized (34 hours per week)

Comfortable 85% - 100% "

Busy greater than 100% " (40 hours per week)

Unavailable / Overcommitted greater than 115% " (46 hours per week)

Page 19: Resource Forecast and Capacity - Managing Tradeoffs, Enabling Flow

Accurate vs. Easy

19

Available Time

Hours per Day 9.0 ==> 45 Hours per Week

Days per Week 5.0 ==> 21 Days per Month

Weeks per Month 4.2 ==> 50 Weeks per Year

Months per Year 12.0 ==> 187 Hours per Month

2,249 Hours per Year

112% of 2000 hours

Forecast Calculator Display

If a task will take 6.0 days … put 0.288 in for the month 0.29

" 2.0 hours per day … " 0.222 " 0.22

" 12.0 hours per week … " 0.267 " 0.27

" 16.0 hours per month … " 0.085 " 0.09

" 3.0 weeks … " 0.720 " 0.72

Resources are … … if total work is …

Available / Underplanned less than 85% utilized (38.25 hours per week)

Comfortable 85% - 100% "

Busy greater than 100% " (45 hours per week)

Unavailable / Overcommitted greater than 115% " (51.75 hours per week)

Page 20: Resource Forecast and Capacity - Managing Tradeoffs, Enabling Flow

Accurate vs. Easy

20

Available Time

Hours per Day 9.0 ==> 45 Hours per Week

Days per Week 5.0 ==> 21 Days per Month

Weeks per Month 4.2 ==> 50 Weeks per Year

Months per Year 12.0 ==> 187 Hours per Month

2,249 Hours per Year

112% of 2000 hours

Forecast Calculator Display

If a task will take 6.0 days … put 0.288 in for the month 0.29

" 2.0 hours per day … " 0.222 " 0.22

" 12.0 hours per week … " 0.267 " 0.27

" 16.0 hours per month … " 0.085 " 0.09

" 3.0 weeks … " 0.720 " 0.72

Resources are … … if total work is …

Available / Underplanned less than 85% utilized (38.25 hours per week)

Comfortable 85% - 100% "

Busy greater than 100% " (45 hours per week)

Unavailable / Overcommitted greater than 115% " (51.75 hours per week)

Page 21: Resource Forecast and Capacity - Managing Tradeoffs, Enabling Flow

The Forecast

21

CTS # Project NameResource

Name Jan12 Feb12 Mar12 Apr12 May12 Jun12

10574 Split SAP Company Code Erlanger 0.10 - - - - -

10764 Migrate Common Business Processes Erlanger 0.40 0.40 0.40 0.50 - -

10840 Freight All Kinds (FAK) reclassification Erlanger 0.05 - - - - -

11134 New rate upload template Erlanger 0.05 - - - - -

11238 Pre-Tendering of freight loads Erlanger 0.05 0.20 0.10 - - -

11308 Small Parcel Shipping vendor switch Erlanger 0.10 0.10 - - - -

11431 Gen'l ETB Q112: Transportation/WarehousingErlanger 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05

Break / Fix Erlanger 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.15

Operations Erlanger 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10

Holidays Erlanger 0.05 - - 0.05 - -

Other Erlanger 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05

Regular "Non-Working" Time Erlanger 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05

Vacation Erlanger - - - - - -

Warehouse/Transportation Systems Erlanger 120% 110% 90% 95% 40% 40%

Page 22: Resource Forecast and Capacity - Managing Tradeoffs, Enabling Flow

Accurate vs. Easy

22

Available Time

Hours per Day 8.0 ==> 40 Hours per Week

Days per Week 5.0 ==> 20 Days per Month

Weeks per Month 4.0 ==> 48 Weeks per Year

Months per Year 12.0 ==> 160 Hours per Month

1,920 Hours per Year

96% of 2000 hours

Forecast Calculator Display

If a task will take 6.0 days … put 0.300 in for the month 0.30

" 2.0 hours per day … " 0.250 " 0.25

" 12.0 hours per week … " 0.300 " 0.30

" 16.0 hours per month … " 0.100 " 0.10

" 3.0 weeks … " 0.750 " 0.75

Resources are … … if total work is …

Available / Underplanned less than 85% utilized (34 hours per week)

Comfortable 85% - 100% "

Busy greater than 100% " (40 hours per week)

Unavailable / Overcommitted greater than 115% " (46 hours per week)

Page 23: Resource Forecast and Capacity - Managing Tradeoffs, Enabling Flow

Accurate vs. Easy

23

Available Time

Hours per Day 8.0 ==> 40 Hours per Week

Days per Week 5.0 ==> 20 Days per Month

Weeks per Month 4.0 ==> 48 Weeks per Year

Months per Year 12.0 ==> 160 Hours per Month

1,920 Hours per Year

96% of 2000 hours

Forecast Calculator Display

If a task will take 6.0 days … put 0.300 in for the month 0.30

" 2.0 hours per day … " 0.250 " 0.25

" 12.0 hours per week … " 0.300 " 0.30

" 16.0 hours per month … " 0.100 " 0.10

" 3.0 weeks … " 0.750 " 0.75

Resources are … … if total work is …

Available / Underplanned less than 85% utilized (34 hours per week)

Comfortable 85% - 100% "

Busy greater than 100% " (40 hours per week)

Unavailable / Overcommitted greater than 115% " (46 hours per week)

Page 24: Resource Forecast and Capacity - Managing Tradeoffs, Enabling Flow

The Forecast

24

CTS # Project NameResource

Name Jan12 Feb12 Mar12 Apr12 May12 Jun12

10574 Split SAP Company Code Erlanger 0.10 - - - - -

10764 Migrate Common Business Processes Erlanger 0.40 0.40 0.40 0.50 - -

10840 Freight All Kinds (FAK) reclassification Erlanger 0.05 - - - - -

11134 New rate upload template Erlanger 0.05 - - - - -

11238 Pre-Tendering of freight loads Erlanger 0.05 0.20 0.10 - - -

11308 Small Parcel Shipping vendor switch Erlanger 0.10 0.10 - - - -

11431 Gen'l ETB Q112: Transportation/WarehousingErlanger 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05

Break / Fix Erlanger 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.15

Operations Erlanger 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10

Holidays Erlanger 0.05 - - 0.05 - -

Other Erlanger 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05

Regular "Non-Working" Time Erlanger 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05

Vacation Erlanger - - - - - -

Warehouse/Transportation Systems Erlanger 120% 110% 90% 95% 40% 40%

Page 25: Resource Forecast and Capacity - Managing Tradeoffs, Enabling Flow

Forecasting RTB – Operations, Break/Fix, Admin

Admin

Manager

Resource

Name Jan12 Feb12 Mar12 Apr12 May12 Jun12

RTB Break / Fix Kinsale Blackthorne 0.28 0.28 0.28 0.28 0.28 0.28

RTB Break / Fix Kinsale Daleside 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05

RTB Break / Fix Kinsale Erlanger 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.15

RTB Break / Fix Kinsale Fontana - - - - - -

RTB Operations Kinsale Blackthorne 0.22 0.22 0.22 0.22 0.22 0.22

RTB Operations Kinsale Daleside 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05

RTB Operations Kinsale Erlanger 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10

RTB Operations Kinsale Fontana 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10

Admin Holidays Kinsale Blackthorne 0.05 - - 0.05 - -

Admin Holidays Kinsale Daleside 0.05 - - 0.05 - -

Admin Holidays Kinsale Erlanger 0.05 - - 0.05 - -

Admin Holidays Kinsale Fontana 0.05 - - 0.05 - -

Admin Other Kinsale Blackthorne - - - - - -

Admin Other Kinsale Daleside - - - - - -

Admin Other Kinsale Erlanger 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05

Admin Other Kinsale Fontana - - 0.25 - - -

Admin Regular "Non-Working" Time Kinsale Blackthorne 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05

Admin Regular "Non-Working" Time Kinsale Daleside 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05

Admin Regular "Non-Working" Time Kinsale Erlanger 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05

Admin Regular "Non-Working" Time Kinsale Fontana 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05

Admin Vacation Kinsale Blackthorne - - - - - -

Admin Vacation Kinsale Daleside - - - 0.25 - -

Admin Vacation Kinsale Erlanger - - - - - -

Admin Vacation Kinsale Fontana 0.05 0.05 - - - -

Page 26: Resource Forecast and Capacity - Managing Tradeoffs, Enabling Flow

26

Forecasting – Projects

CTS # Project NameProject

Manager

Admin

Manager

Resource

Name Jan12 Feb12 Mar12 Apr12 May12 Jun12

10940 YSHIFT new table functionality Swaton Kelley Swaton 0.20 0.20 - - - -

10940 YSHIFT new table functionality Swaton Kelley Ysidro 0.10 0.10 - - - -

10946 Split EDI Envelopes Spilker Kurzsich Bodegon - 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.15 -

10946 Split EDI Envelopes Spilker Kurzsich Kurzsich 0.02 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 -

10946 Split EDI Envelopes Spilker Kurzsich Smith - 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.20 -

10946 Split EDI Envelopes Spilker Kurzsich Spilker 0.10 0.25 0.25 0.25 - -

10947 Add Newco Spend into SAP BW ProcurementFontana Kinsale Fontana 0.05 0.05 - - - -

10947 Add Newco Spend into SAP BW ProcurementFontana Tucker Tucker 0.01 0.01 - - - -

10947 Add Newco Spend into SAP BW ProcurementFontana Tucker Minkina 0.10 0.05 0.05 0.05 - -

10979 RMC Racking - Full RF Redesign Merhl Stepana Merhl 0.15 0.15 0.10 - - -

10979 RMC Racking - Full RF Redesign Merhl Stepana Farthing 0.15 0.15 0.10 - - -

10989 Create Mfg reports in Data Warehouse Obermayr Tucker Arbor 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.20 -

10989 Create Mfg reports in Data Warehouse Obermayr Tucker Tucker 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 -

10989 Create Mfg reports in Data Warehouse Obermayr Kelley Obermayr 0.20 0.40 0.40 - - -

11000 BU Intranet Collab Site Upgrades Bastone Wilkins Kappeli 0.10 0.15 - - - -

11000 BU Intranet Collab Site Upgrades Bastone Wilkins Wilkins 0.10 0.10 - - - -

11000 BU Intranet Collab Site Upgrades Bastone Wilkins Bastone 0.10 - - - - -

11000 BU Intranet Collab Site Upgrades Bastone Collins Parque 0.05 0.05 - - - -

11009 Canadian ACH SAP AP Vallenson Vallenson Jolus 0.20 0.20 0.20 - - -

11009 Canadian ACH SAP AP Vallenson Vallenson Minskoe 0.20 0.20 0.20 - - -

Page 27: Resource Forecast and Capacity - Managing Tradeoffs, Enabling Flow

The Forecast

27

CTS # Project NameResource

Name Jan12 Feb12 Mar12 Apr12 May12 Jun12

10574 Split SAP Company Code Erlanger 0.10 - - - - -

10764 Migrate Common Business Processes Erlanger 0.40 0.40 0.40 0.50 - -

10840 Freight All Kinds (FAK) reclassification Erlanger 0.05 - - - - -

11134 New rate upload template Erlanger 0.05 - - - - -

11238 Pre-Tendering of freight loads Erlanger 0.05 0.20 0.10 - - -

11308 Small Parcel Shipping vendor switch Erlanger 0.10 0.10 - - - -

11431 Gen'l ETB Q112: Transportation/WarehousingErlanger 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05

Break / Fix Erlanger 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.15

Operations Erlanger 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10

Holidays Erlanger 0.05 - - 0.05 - -

Other Erlanger 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05

Regular "Non-Working" Time Erlanger 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05

Vacation Erlanger - - - - - -

Warehouse/Transportation Systems Erlanger 120% 110% 90% 95% 40% 40%

Page 28: Resource Forecast and Capacity - Managing Tradeoffs, Enabling Flow

28

Get the Red Out!

Admin

Manager

Resource

Name Jan12 Feb12 Mar12 Apr12 May12 Jun12

Avail SC Planning / Manufacturing / Plant EngineeringKelley Rockwell 105% 90% 100% 105% 105% 105%

Avail SC Planning / Manufacturing / Plant EngineeringKelley Burch 90% 95% 100% 100% 100% 100%

Avail SC Planning / Manufacturing / Plant EngineeringKelley Ellerton 90% 55% 70% 60% 60% 60%

Avail SC Planning / Manufacturing / Plant EngineeringKelley Innsbruck 125% 90% 105% 105% 105% 105%

Avail Manufacturing Systems Kelley Kelley 100% 80% 50% 65% 30% 35%

Avail SC Planning / Manufacturing / Plant EngineeringKelley Lerner 85% 85% 70% 70% 70% 70%

Avail Manufacturing Systems Kelley Obermayr 105% 125% 110% 50% 25% 25%

Avail Manufacturing Systems DevKey B Kelley Swaton 115% 65% 50% 50% 30% 30%

Avail Warehouse / Distribution / Procurement Kinsale Blackthorne 105% 100% 105% 105% 105% 105%

Avail Warehouse / Distribution / Procurement Kinsale Daleside 110% 105% 30% 55% 25% 25%

Avail Warehouse/Transportation Systems Kinsale Erlanger 120% 110% 95% 95% 45% 45%

Avail Warehouse/Transportation Systems Kinsale Fontana 130% 125% 35% 35% 25% 25%

Avail Finance / Human Resources / Legal Kinsale Heilgeist 125% 120% 125% 125% 125% 125%

Avail Whse/Trans Sys DevKey D Kinsale Kinnesport 100% 115% 80% 90% 40% 40%

Avail Whse/Trans Sys DevKey L Kinsale Kinsale 105% 76% 76% 95% 35% 35%

Avail Finance / Human Resources / Legal Kinsale Pavalar 105% 90% 95% 95% 95% 95%

Avail Warehouse/Transportation Systems Kinsale Flanders 105% 115% 25% 75% 25% 25%

Avail BW: Func Desn/Build, Qrys/Rpts Tucker Andrus 95% 90% 95% 95% 95% 95%

Avail BW ABAP DevKey B Tucker Arbor 137% 92% 77% 107% 77% 37%

Avail BW ABAP DevKey B Tucker Cuharick 92% 107% 72% 67% 27% 27%

Avail BW ABAP DevKey B Tucker Minneta 116% 131% 116% 71% 26% 26%

Avail BW: Func Desn/Build, Qrys/Rpts Tucker Monrovia 100% 95% 95% 95% 95% 95%

Avail BW ABAP DevKey B Tucker Malkhard 61% 56% 26% 26% 26% 26%

Avail BW ABAP DevKey L Tucker Tucker 99% 88% 69% 60% 49% 44%

Page 29: Resource Forecast and Capacity - Managing Tradeoffs, Enabling Flow

Background / Environment

IT Resource Forecasting

Model

Mix

Method

Project Roadmaps

Demand Management in Action

Bumps in the Road

Hitting a Wall (well, a Bigger Bump)

29

Page 30: Resource Forecast and Capacity - Managing Tradeoffs, Enabling Flow

“Local” Project Roadmaps

30 MS Project draws pretty pictures …

Page 31: Resource Forecast and Capacity - Managing Tradeoffs, Enabling Flow

“Local” Project Roadmaps

31

Getting a Reasonable Subset of the Universe In Sight

“Large” projects, cut across multiple disciplines

“Local” projects – what’s on my plate?

Page 32: Resource Forecast and Capacity - Managing Tradeoffs, Enabling Flow

“Local” Project Roadmaps

32

Getting a Reasonable Subset of the Universe In Sight

Top: Projects have been manually “leveled”, scheduled

Bottom: Logistical details / scheduling TBD

Page 33: Resource Forecast and Capacity - Managing Tradeoffs, Enabling Flow

33

Forecasting – Projects

CTS # Project NameProject

Manager

Admin

Manager

Resource

Name Jan12 Feb12 Mar12 Apr12 May12 Jun12

10940 YSHIFT new table functionality Swaton Kelley Swaton 0.20 0.20 - - - -

10940 YSHIFT new table functionality Swaton Kelley Ysidro 0.10 0.10 - - - -

10946 Split EDI Envelopes Spilker Kurzsich Bodegon - 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.15 -

10946 Split EDI Envelopes Spilker Kurzsich Kurzsich 0.02 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 -

10946 Split EDI Envelopes Spilker Kurzsich Smith - 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.20 -

10946 Split EDI Envelopes Spilker Kurzsich Spilker 0.10 0.25 0.25 0.25 - -

10947 Add Newco Spend into SAP BW ProcurementFontana Kinsale Fontana 0.05 0.05 - - - -

10947 Add Newco Spend into SAP BW ProcurementFontana Tucker Tucker 0.01 0.01 - - - -

10947 Add Newco Spend into SAP BW ProcurementFontana Tucker Minkina 0.10 0.05 0.05 0.05 - -

10979 RMC Racking - Full RF Redesign Merhl Stepana Merhl 0.15 0.15 0.10 - - -

10979 RMC Racking - Full RF Redesign Merhl Stepana Farthing 0.15 0.15 0.10 - - -

10989 Create Mfg reports in Data Warehouse Obermayr Tucker Arbor 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.20 -

10989 Create Mfg reports in Data Warehouse Obermayr Tucker Tucker 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 -

10989 Create Mfg reports in Data Warehouse Obermayr Kelley Obermayr 0.20 0.40 0.40 - - -

11000 BU Intranet Collab Site Upgrades Bastone Wilkins Kappeli 0.10 0.15 - - - -

11000 BU Intranet Collab Site Upgrades Bastone Wilkins Wilkins 0.10 0.10 - - - -

11000 BU Intranet Collab Site Upgrades Bastone Wilkins Bastone 0.10 - - - - -

11000 BU Intranet Collab Site Upgrades Bastone Collins Parque 0.05 0.05 - - - -

11009 Canadian ACH SAP AP Vallenson Vallenson Jolus 0.20 0.20 0.20 - - -

11009 Canadian ACH SAP AP Vallenson Vallenson Minskoe 0.20 0.20 0.20 - - -

Page 34: Resource Forecast and Capacity - Managing Tradeoffs, Enabling Flow

34

Get the Red Out!

Admin

Manager

Resource

Name Jan12 Feb12 Mar12 Apr12 May12 Jun12

Avail SC Planning / Manufacturing / Plant EngineeringKelley Rockwell 105% 90% 100% 105% 105% 105%

Avail SC Planning / Manufacturing / Plant EngineeringKelley Burch 90% 95% 100% 100% 100% 100%

Avail SC Planning / Manufacturing / Plant EngineeringKelley Ellerton 90% 55% 70% 60% 60% 60%

Avail SC Planning / Manufacturing / Plant EngineeringKelley Innsbruck 125% 90% 105% 105% 105% 105%

Avail Manufacturing Systems Kelley Kelley 100% 80% 50% 65% 30% 35%

Avail SC Planning / Manufacturing / Plant EngineeringKelley Lerner 85% 85% 70% 70% 70% 70%

Avail Manufacturing Systems Kelley Obermayr 105% 125% 110% 50% 25% 25%

Avail Manufacturing Systems DevKey B Kelley Swaton 115% 65% 50% 50% 30% 30%

Avail Warehouse / Distribution / Procurement Kinsale Blackthorne 105% 100% 105% 105% 105% 105%

Avail Warehouse / Distribution / Procurement Kinsale Daleside 110% 105% 30% 55% 25% 25%

Avail Warehouse/Transportation Systems Kinsale Erlanger 120% 110% 95% 95% 45% 45%

Avail Warehouse/Transportation Systems Kinsale Fontana 130% 125% 35% 35% 25% 25%

Avail Finance / Human Resources / Legal Kinsale Heilgeist 125% 120% 125% 125% 125% 125%

Avail Whse/Trans Sys DevKey D Kinsale Kinnesport 100% 115% 80% 90% 40% 40%

Avail Whse/Trans Sys DevKey L Kinsale Kinsale 105% 76% 76% 95% 35% 35%

Avail Finance / Human Resources / Legal Kinsale Pavalar 105% 90% 95% 95% 95% 95%

Avail Warehouse/Transportation Systems Kinsale Flanders 105% 115% 25% 75% 25% 25%

Avail BW: Func Desn/Build, Qrys/Rpts Tucker Andrus 95% 90% 95% 95% 95% 95%

Avail BW ABAP DevKey B Tucker Arbor 137% 92% 77% 107% 77% 37%

Avail BW ABAP DevKey B Tucker Cuharick 92% 107% 72% 67% 27% 27%

Avail BW ABAP DevKey B Tucker Minneta 116% 131% 116% 71% 26% 26%

Avail BW: Func Desn/Build, Qrys/Rpts Tucker Monrovia 100% 95% 95% 95% 95% 95%

Avail BW ABAP DevKey B Tucker Malkhard 61% 56% 26% 26% 26% 26%

Avail BW ABAP DevKey L Tucker Tucker 99% 88% 69% 60% 49% 44%

Page 35: Resource Forecast and Capacity - Managing Tradeoffs, Enabling Flow

Background / Environment

IT Resource Forecasting

Model

Mix

Method

Project Roadmaps

Demand Management in Action

Bumps in the Road

Hitting a Wall (well, a Bigger Bump)

35

Page 36: Resource Forecast and Capacity - Managing Tradeoffs, Enabling Flow

36

Get the Red Out!

Admin

Manager

Resource

Name Jan12 Feb12 Mar12 Apr12 May12 Jun12

Avail SC Planning / Manufacturing / Plant EngineeringKelley Rockwell 105% 90% 100% 105% 105% 105%

Avail SC Planning / Manufacturing / Plant EngineeringKelley Burch 90% 95% 100% 100% 100% 100%

Avail SC Planning / Manufacturing / Plant EngineeringKelley Ellerton 90% 55% 70% 60% 60% 60%

Avail SC Planning / Manufacturing / Plant EngineeringKelley Innsbruck 125% 90% 105% 105% 105% 105%

Avail Manufacturing Systems Kelley Kelley 100% 80% 50% 65% 30% 35%

Avail SC Planning / Manufacturing / Plant EngineeringKelley Lerner 85% 85% 70% 70% 70% 70%

Avail Manufacturing Systems Kelley Obermayr 105% 125% 110% 50% 25% 25%

Avail Manufacturing Systems DevKey B Kelley Swaton 115% 65% 50% 50% 30% 30%

Avail Warehouse / Distribution / Procurement Kinsale Blackthorne 105% 100% 105% 105% 105% 105%

Avail Warehouse / Distribution / Procurement Kinsale Daleside 110% 105% 30% 55% 25% 25%

Avail Warehouse/Transportation Systems Kinsale Erlanger 120% 110% 95% 95% 45% 45%

Avail Warehouse/Transportation Systems Kinsale Fontana 130% 125% 35% 35% 25% 25%

Avail Finance / Human Resources / Legal Kinsale Heilgeist 125% 120% 125% 125% 125% 125%

Avail Whse/Trans Sys DevKey D Kinsale Kinnesport 100% 115% 80% 90% 40% 40%

Avail Whse/Trans Sys DevKey L Kinsale Kinsale 105% 76% 76% 95% 35% 35%

Avail Finance / Human Resources / Legal Kinsale Pavalar 105% 90% 95% 95% 95% 95%

Avail Warehouse/Transportation Systems Kinsale Flanders 105% 115% 25% 75% 25% 25%

Avail BW: Func Desn/Build, Qrys/Rpts Tucker Andrus 95% 90% 95% 95% 95% 95%

Avail BW ABAP DevKey B Tucker Arbor 137% 92% 77% 107% 77% 37%

Avail BW ABAP DevKey B Tucker Cuharick 92% 107% 72% 67% 27% 27%

Avail BW ABAP DevKey B Tucker Minneta 116% 131% 116% 71% 26% 26%

Avail BW: Func Desn/Build, Qrys/Rpts Tucker Monrovia 100% 95% 95% 95% 95% 95%

Avail BW ABAP DevKey B Tucker Malkhard 61% 56% 26% 26% 26% 26%

Avail BW ABAP DevKey L Tucker Tucker 99% 88% 69% 60% 49% 44%

Page 37: Resource Forecast and Capacity - Managing Tradeoffs, Enabling Flow

“Local” Project Roadmaps

37

Getting a Reasonable Subset of the Universe In Sight

Top: Projects have been manually “leveled”, scheduled

Bottom: Logistical details / scheduling TBD

Page 38: Resource Forecast and Capacity - Managing Tradeoffs, Enabling Flow

38

Forecast Load Check

125 %

116 %

134 %

Page 39: Resource Forecast and Capacity - Managing Tradeoffs, Enabling Flow

39

Forecast Load Check

116 %

134 %

Page 40: Resource Forecast and Capacity - Managing Tradeoffs, Enabling Flow

40

Get the Red Out!

Admin

Manager

Resource

Name Jan12 Feb12 Mar12 Apr12 May12 Jun12

Avail SC Planning / Manufacturing / Plant EngineeringKelley Rockwell 105% 90% 100% 105% 105% 105%

Avail SC Planning / Manufacturing / Plant EngineeringKelley Burch 90% 95% 100% 100% 100% 100%

Avail SC Planning / Manufacturing / Plant EngineeringKelley Ellerton 90% 55% 70% 60% 60% 60%

Avail SC Planning / Manufacturing / Plant EngineeringKelley Innsbruck 125% 90% 105% 105% 105% 105%

Avail Manufacturing Systems Kelley Kelley 100% 80% 50% 65% 30% 35%

Avail SC Planning / Manufacturing / Plant EngineeringKelley Lerner 85% 85% 70% 70% 70% 70%

Avail Manufacturing Systems Kelley Obermayr 105% 125% 110% 50% 25% 25%

Avail Manufacturing Systems DevKey B Kelley Swaton 115% 65% 50% 50% 30% 30%

Avail Warehouse / Distribution / Procurement Kinsale Blackthorne 105% 100% 105% 105% 105% 105%

Avail Warehouse / Distribution / Procurement Kinsale Daleside 110% 105% 30% 55% 25% 25%

Avail Warehouse/Transportation Systems Kinsale Erlanger 120% 110% 95% 95% 45% 45%

Avail Warehouse/Transportation Systems Kinsale Fontana 130% 125% 35% 35% 25% 25%

Avail Finance / Human Resources / Legal Kinsale Heilgeist 125% 120% 125% 125% 125% 125%

Avail Whse/Trans Sys DevKey D Kinsale Kinnesport 100% 115% 80% 90% 40% 40%

Avail Whse/Trans Sys DevKey L Kinsale Kinsale 105% 76% 76% 95% 35% 35%

Avail Finance / Human Resources / Legal Kinsale Pavalar 105% 90% 95% 95% 95% 95%

Avail Warehouse/Transportation Systems Kinsale Flanders 105% 115% 25% 75% 25% 25%

Avail BW: Func Desn/Build, Qrys/Rpts Tucker Andrus 95% 90% 95% 95% 95% 95%

Avail BW ABAP DevKey B Tucker Arbor 137% 92% 77% 107% 77% 37%

Avail BW ABAP DevKey B Tucker Cuharick 92% 107% 72% 67% 27% 27%

Avail BW ABAP DevKey B Tucker Minneta 116% 131% 116% 71% 26% 26%

Avail BW: Func Desn/Build, Qrys/Rpts Tucker Monrovia 100% 95% 95% 95% 95% 95%

Avail BW ABAP DevKey B Tucker Malkhard 61% 56% 26% 26% 26% 26%

Avail BW ABAP DevKey L Tucker Tucker 99% 88% 69% 60% 49% 44%

Page 41: Resource Forecast and Capacity - Managing Tradeoffs, Enabling Flow

Background / Environment

IT Resource Forecasting

Model

Mix

Method

Project Roadmaps

Demand Management in Action

Bumps in the Road

Hitting a Wall (well, a Bigger Bump)

41

Page 42: Resource Forecast and Capacity - Managing Tradeoffs, Enabling Flow

42

Get the Red Out!

Admin

Manager

Resource

Name Jan12 Feb12 Mar12 Apr12 May12 Jun12

Avail SC Planning / Manufacturing / Plant EngineeringKelley Rockwell 105% 90% 100% 105% 105% 105%

Avail SC Planning / Manufacturing / Plant EngineeringKelley Burch 90% 95% 100% 100% 100% 100%

Avail SC Planning / Manufacturing / Plant EngineeringKelley Ellerton 90% 55% 70% 60% 60% 60%

Avail SC Planning / Manufacturing / Plant EngineeringKelley Innsbruck 125% 90% 105% 105% 105% 105%

Avail Manufacturing Systems Kelley Kelley 100% 80% 50% 65% 30% 35%

Avail SC Planning / Manufacturing / Plant EngineeringKelley Lerner 85% 85% 70% 70% 70% 70%

Avail Manufacturing Systems Kelley Obermayr 105% 125% 110% 50% 25% 25%

Avail Manufacturing Systems DevKey B Kelley Swaton 115% 65% 50% 50% 30% 30%

Avail Warehouse / Distribution / Procurement Kinsale Blackthorne 105% 100% 105% 105% 105% 105%

Avail Warehouse / Distribution / Procurement Kinsale Daleside 110% 105% 30% 55% 25% 25%

Avail Warehouse/Transportation Systems Kinsale Erlanger 120% 110% 95% 95% 45% 45%

Avail Warehouse/Transportation Systems Kinsale Fontana 130% 125% 35% 35% 25% 25%

Avail Finance / Human Resources / Legal Kinsale Heilgeist 125% 120% 125% 125% 125% 125%

Avail Whse/Trans Sys DevKey D Kinsale Kinnesport 100% 115% 80% 90% 40% 40%

Avail Whse/Trans Sys DevKey L Kinsale Kinsale 105% 76% 76% 95% 35% 35%

Avail Finance / Human Resources / Legal Kinsale Pavalar 105% 90% 95% 95% 95% 95%

Avail Warehouse/Transportation Systems Kinsale Flanders 105% 115% 25% 75% 25% 25%

Avail BW: Func Desn/Build, Qrys/Rpts Tucker Andrus 95% 90% 95% 95% 95% 95%

Avail BW ABAP DevKey B Tucker Arbor 137% 92% 77% 107% 77% 37%

Avail BW ABAP DevKey B Tucker Cuharick 92% 107% 72% 67% 27% 27%

Avail BW ABAP DevKey B Tucker Minneta 116% 131% 116% 71% 26% 26%

Avail BW: Func Desn/Build, Qrys/Rpts Tucker Monrovia 100% 95% 95% 95% 95% 95%

Avail BW ABAP DevKey B Tucker Malkhard 61% 56% 26% 26% 26% 26%

Avail BW ABAP DevKey L Tucker Tucker 99% 88% 69% 60% 49% 44%

Page 43: Resource Forecast and Capacity - Managing Tradeoffs, Enabling Flow

43

Get the Red Out!

Admin

Manager

Resource

Name Jan12 Feb12 Mar12 Apr12 May12 Jun12

Avail SC Planning / Manufacturing / Plant EngineeringKelley Rockwell 105% 90% 100% 105% 105% 105%

Avail SC Planning / Manufacturing / Plant EngineeringKelley Burch 90% 95% 100% 100% 100% 100%

Avail SC Planning / Manufacturing / Plant EngineeringKelley Ellerton 90% 55% 70% 60% 60% 60%

Avail SC Planning / Manufacturing / Plant EngineeringKelley Innsbruck 125% 90% 105% 105% 105% 105%

Avail Manufacturing Systems Kelley Kelley 100% 80% 50% 65% 30% 35%

Avail SC Planning / Manufacturing / Plant EngineeringKelley Lerner 85% 85% 70% 70% 70% 70%

Avail Manufacturing Systems Kelley Obermayr 105% 125% 110% 50% 25% 25%

Avail Manufacturing Systems DevKey B Kelley Swaton 115% 65% 50% 50% 30% 30%

Avail Warehouse / Distribution / Procurement Kinsale Blackthorne 105% 100% 105% 105% 105% 105%

Avail Warehouse / Distribution / Procurement Kinsale Daleside 110% 105% 30% 55% 25% 25%

Avail Warehouse/Transportation Systems Kinsale Erlanger 120% 110% 95% 95% 45% 45%

Avail Warehouse/Transportation Systems Kinsale Fontana 130% 125% 35% 35% 25% 25%

Avail Finance / Human Resources / Legal Kinsale Heilgeist 125% 120% 125% 125% 125% 125%

Avail Whse/Trans Sys DevKey D Kinsale Kinnesport 100% 115% 80% 90% 40% 40%

Avail Whse/Trans Sys DevKey L Kinsale Kinsale 105% 76% 76% 95% 35% 35%

Avail Finance / Human Resources / Legal Kinsale Pavalar 105% 90% 95% 95% 95% 95%

Avail Warehouse/Transportation Systems Kinsale Flanders 105% 115% 25% 75% 25% 25%

Avail BW: Func Desn/Build, Qrys/Rpts Tucker Andrus 95% 90% 95% 95% 95% 95%

Avail BW ABAP DevKey B Tucker Arbor 137% 92% 77% 107% 77% 37%

Avail BW ABAP DevKey B Tucker Cuharick 92% 107% 72% 67% 27% 27%

Avail BW ABAP DevKey B Tucker Minneta 116% 131% 116% 71% 26% 26%

Avail BW: Func Desn/Build, Qrys/Rpts Tucker Monrovia 100% 95% 95% 95% 95% 95%

Avail BW ABAP DevKey B Tucker Malkhard 61% 56% 26% 26% 26% 26%

Avail BW ABAP DevKey L Tucker Tucker 99% 88% 69% 60% 49% 44%

Page 44: Resource Forecast and Capacity - Managing Tradeoffs, Enabling Flow

Bad Behavior: Mild

44

Project NameProject

Manager

Admin

Manager

Resource

Name Jan12 Feb12 Mar12

Green Migrate Common Business Processes Kinsale Kelley Obermayr 0.10 0.10 0.05

Green Create Mfg reports in Data Warehouse Obermayr Kelley Obermayr 0.20 0.40 0.40

Green OEE Data Input and Download from ERP Obermayr Kelley Obermayr 0.20 - -

Green Plant 3 Maintenance System ImplementationObermayr Kelley Obermayr 0.20 0.10 0.20

Complete Plant 2 Maintenance System ImplementationObermayr Kelley Obermayr 0.05 0.05 -

Green PE Group Data Retrieval Obermayr Kelley Obermayr 0.10 0.10 0.20

Proposed General ETB Q1-2012: Manufacturing Kelley Kelley Obermayr - 0.05 0.05

RTB Break / Fix Kelley Obermayr 0.03 0.03 0.03

RTB Operations Kelley Obermayr 0.02 0.02 0.02

Admin Holidays Kelley Obermayr 0.05 - 0.05

Admin Other Kelley Obermayr 0.05 0.05 0.05

Admin Regular "Non-Working" Time Kelley Obermayr 0.05 0.05 0.05

Admin Vacation Kelley Obermayr - 0.30 -

Avail Manufacturing Systems Kelley Obermayr 105% 125% 110%

Page 45: Resource Forecast and Capacity - Managing Tradeoffs, Enabling Flow

Bad Behavior: Mild

45

Project NameProject

Manager

Admin

Manager

Resource

Name Jan12 Feb12 Mar12

Green Migrate Common Business Processes Kinsale Kelley Obermayr 0.10 0.10 0.05

Green Create Mfg reports in Data Warehouse Obermayr Kelley Obermayr 0.20 0.40 0.40

Green OEE Data Input and Download from ERP Obermayr Kelley Obermayr 0.20 - -

Green Plant 3 Maintenance System ImplementationObermayr Kelley Obermayr 0.20 0.10 0.20

Complete Plant 2 Maintenance System ImplementationObermayr Kelley Obermayr 0.05 0.05 -

Green PE Group Data Retrieval Obermayr Kelley Obermayr 0.10 0.10 0.20

Proposed General ETB Q1-2012: Manufacturing Kelley Kelley Obermayr - 0.05 0.05

RTB Break / Fix Kelley Obermayr 0.03 0.03 0.03

RTB Operations Kelley Obermayr 0.02 0.02 0.02

Admin Holidays Kelley Obermayr 0.05 - 0.05

Admin Other Kelley Obermayr 0.05 0.05 0.05

Admin Regular "Non-Working" Time Kelley Obermayr 0.05 0.05 0.05

Admin Vacation Kelley Obermayr - 0.30 -

Avail Manufacturing Systems Kelley Obermayr 105% 125% 110%

Project NameProject

Manager

Admin

Manager

Resource

Name Jan12 Feb12 Mar12

Green Migrate Common Business Processes Kinsale Kelley Obermayr 0.10 0.10 0.05

Green Create Mfg reports in Data Warehouse Obermayr Kelley Obermayr 0.20 0.40 0.40

Green OEE Data Input and Download from ERP Obermayr Kelley Obermayr 0.20 - -

Green Plant 3 Maintenance System ImplementationObermayr Kelley Obermayr 0.20 0.10 0.20

Complete Plant 2 Maintenance System ImplementationObermayr Kelley Obermayr 0.05 0.05 -

Green PE Group Data Retrieval Obermayr Kelley Obermayr 0.10 0.10 0.20

Proposed General ETB Q1-2012: Manufacturing Kelley Kelley Obermayr - 0.05 0.05

RTB Break / Fix Kelley Obermayr 0.03 0.03 0.03

RTB Operations Kelley Obermayr 0.02 0.02 0.02

Admin Holidays Kelley Obermayr 0.05 - 0.05

Admin Other Kelley Obermayr 0.05 0.05 0.05

Admin Regular "Non-Working" Time Kelley Obermayr 0.05 0.05 0.05

Admin Vacation Kelley Obermayr - 0.30 -

Avail Manufacturing Systems Kelley Obermayr 105% 125% 110%

Assumption: we are Modeling Reality

People typically do not work on vacation

Project plans should reflect actual time planned to work

Will that vacation gap impact project time lines?

Page 46: Resource Forecast and Capacity - Managing Tradeoffs, Enabling Flow

46

Get the Red Out!

Admin

Manager

Resource

Name Jan12 Feb12 Mar12 Apr12 May12 Jun12

Avail SC Planning / Manufacturing / Plant EngineeringKelley Rockwell 105% 90% 100% 105% 105% 105%

Avail SC Planning / Manufacturing / Plant EngineeringKelley Burch 90% 95% 100% 100% 100% 100%

Avail SC Planning / Manufacturing / Plant EngineeringKelley Ellerton 90% 55% 70% 60% 60% 60%

Avail SC Planning / Manufacturing / Plant EngineeringKelley Innsbruck 125% 90% 105% 105% 105% 105%

Avail Manufacturing Systems Kelley Kelley 100% 80% 50% 65% 30% 35%

Avail SC Planning / Manufacturing / Plant EngineeringKelley Lerner 85% 85% 70% 70% 70% 70%

Avail Manufacturing Systems Kelley Obermayr 105% 125% 110% 50% 25% 25%

Avail Manufacturing Systems DevKey B Kelley Swaton 115% 65% 50% 50% 30% 30%

Avail Warehouse / Distribution / Procurement Kinsale Blackthorne 105% 100% 105% 105% 105% 105%

Avail Warehouse / Distribution / Procurement Kinsale Daleside 110% 105% 30% 55% 25% 25%

Avail Warehouse/Transportation Systems Kinsale Erlanger 120% 110% 95% 95% 45% 45%

Avail Warehouse/Transportation Systems Kinsale Fontana 130% 125% 35% 35% 25% 25%

Avail Finance / Human Resources / Legal Kinsale Heilgeist 125% 120% 125% 125% 125% 125%

Avail Whse/Trans Sys DevKey D Kinsale Kinnesport 100% 115% 80% 90% 40% 40%

Avail Whse/Trans Sys DevKey L Kinsale Kinsale 105% 76% 76% 95% 35% 35%

Avail Finance / Human Resources / Legal Kinsale Pavalar 105% 90% 95% 95% 95% 95%

Avail Warehouse/Transportation Systems Kinsale Flanders 105% 115% 25% 75% 25% 25%

Avail BW: Func Desn/Build, Qrys/Rpts Tucker Andrus 95% 90% 95% 95% 95% 95%

Avail BW ABAP DevKey B Tucker Arbor 137% 92% 77% 107% 77% 37%

Avail BW ABAP DevKey B Tucker Cuharick 92% 107% 72% 67% 27% 27%

Avail BW ABAP DevKey B Tucker Minneta 116% 131% 116% 71% 26% 26%

Avail BW: Func Desn/Build, Qrys/Rpts Tucker Monrovia 100% 95% 95% 95% 95% 95%

Avail BW ABAP DevKey B Tucker Malkhard 61% 56% 26% 26% 26% 26%

Avail BW ABAP DevKey L Tucker Tucker 99% 88% 69% 60% 49% 44%

Page 47: Resource Forecast and Capacity - Managing Tradeoffs, Enabling Flow

47

Get the Red Out!

Admin

Manager

Resource

Name Jan12 Feb12 Mar12 Apr12 May12 Jun12

Avail SC Planning / Manufacturing / Plant EngineeringKelley Rockwell 105% 90% 100% 105% 105% 105%

Avail SC Planning / Manufacturing / Plant EngineeringKelley Burch 90% 95% 100% 100% 100% 100%

Avail SC Planning / Manufacturing / Plant EngineeringKelley Ellerton 90% 55% 70% 60% 60% 60%

Avail SC Planning / Manufacturing / Plant EngineeringKelley Innsbruck 125% 90% 105% 105% 105% 105%

Avail Manufacturing Systems Kelley Kelley 100% 80% 50% 65% 30% 35%

Avail SC Planning / Manufacturing / Plant EngineeringKelley Lerner 85% 85% 70% 70% 70% 70%

Avail Manufacturing Systems Kelley Obermayr 105% 125% 110% 50% 25% 25%

Avail Manufacturing Systems DevKey B Kelley Swaton 115% 65% 50% 50% 30% 30%

Avail Warehouse / Distribution / Procurement Kinsale Blackthorne 105% 100% 105% 105% 105% 105%

Avail Warehouse / Distribution / Procurement Kinsale Daleside 110% 105% 30% 55% 25% 25%

Avail Warehouse/Transportation Systems Kinsale Erlanger 120% 110% 95% 95% 45% 45%

Avail Warehouse/Transportation Systems Kinsale Fontana 130% 125% 35% 35% 25% 25%

Avail Finance / Human Resources / Legal Kinsale Heilgeist 125% 120% 125% 125% 125% 125%

Avail Whse/Trans Sys DevKey D Kinsale Kinnesport 100% 115% 80% 90% 40% 40%

Avail Whse/Trans Sys DevKey L Kinsale Kinsale 105% 76% 76% 95% 35% 35%

Avail Finance / Human Resources / Legal Kinsale Pavalar 105% 90% 95% 95% 95% 95%

Avail Warehouse/Transportation Systems Kinsale Flanders 105% 115% 25% 75% 25% 25%

Avail BW: Func Desn/Build, Qrys/Rpts Tucker Andrus 95% 90% 95% 95% 95% 95%

Avail BW ABAP DevKey B Tucker Arbor 137% 92% 77% 107% 77% 37%

Avail BW ABAP DevKey B Tucker Cuharick 92% 107% 72% 67% 27% 27%

Avail BW ABAP DevKey B Tucker Minneta 116% 131% 116% 71% 26% 26%

Avail BW: Func Desn/Build, Qrys/Rpts Tucker Monrovia 100% 95% 95% 95% 95% 95%

Avail BW ABAP DevKey B Tucker Malkhard 61% 56% 26% 26% 26% 26%

Avail BW ABAP DevKey L Tucker Tucker 99% 88% 69% 60% 49% 44%

Page 48: Resource Forecast and Capacity - Managing Tradeoffs, Enabling Flow

Bad Behavior: Significant

48

Assumption: We are Modeling Effort Time NOT Calendar Time

Work forecasts for Effort Time in the project plan

You are working from a project plan, yes?

This is NOT a Reservation System

Project NameProject

Manager

Resource

Name Jan12 Feb12 Mar12 Apr12 May12 Jun12

Shop Floor Scheduling System Leyton Janga 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.20

Shop Floor Scheduling System Leyton Heilgeist 0.80 0.80 0.80 0.80 0.80 0.80

Shop Floor Scheduling System Leyton Kalles 0.40 0.40 0.40 0.40 0.40 0.40

Shop Floor Scheduling System Leyton Marston 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05

Relocate East DC Technical Infrastructure Marston Mandeville 0.02 0.01 - - - -

Relocate East DC Technical Infrastructure Marston Pekin 0.05 0.10 - - - -

Relocate East DC Technical Infrastructure Marston Cutter 0.10 0.30 0.25 0.10 - -

Relocate East DC Technical Infrastructure Marston Heilgeist 0.05 0.05 0.15 0.05 - -

Page 49: Resource Forecast and Capacity - Managing Tradeoffs, Enabling Flow

49

Prioritization Process - Requirements

1. Simplicity

a. Clearly Documented Process

b. Common Terms

c. Minimal “Bureaucracy”

2. Visibility

a. Inside / Outside of IT

b. Qualitative and Quantitative

c. Forward- / Backward-Looking

3. Transparency

a. Capture All Inputs

b. Show Real Business Value

c. Alignment with Business Objectives

d. Distribution of Resources across Business Units

e. Evergreen, Never Forgets

Page 50: Resource Forecast and Capacity - Managing Tradeoffs, Enabling Flow

Background / Environment

IT Resource Forecasting

Model

Mix

Method

Project Roadmaps

Demand Management in Action

Bumps in the Road

Hitting a Wall (well, a Bigger Bump)

50

Page 51: Resource Forecast and Capacity - Managing Tradeoffs, Enabling Flow

Major Change brings Major Bumps

51

Challenge: Multiple, Large, Concurrent Projects

• Six major projects in 2011; go-lives 10/1, 11/1, 12/1, 1/1, 2/1

• Functional resources (operations, finance, etc.) not in the forecast, but often the constraint

Page 52: Resource Forecast and Capacity - Managing Tradeoffs, Enabling Flow

“Local” Project Roadmaps

52 MS Project draws pretty pictures …

Page 53: Resource Forecast and Capacity - Managing Tradeoffs, Enabling Flow

53

Get the Red Out!

Admin

Manager

Resource

Name Jan12 Feb12 Mar12 Apr12 May12 Jun12

Avail SC Planning / Manufacturing / Plant EngineeringKelley Rockwell 105% 90% 100% 105% 105% 105%

Avail SC Planning / Manufacturing / Plant EngineeringKelley Burch 90% 95% 100% 100% 100% 100%

Avail SC Planning / Manufacturing / Plant EngineeringKelley Ellerton 90% 55% 70% 60% 60% 60%

Avail SC Planning / Manufacturing / Plant EngineeringKelley Innsbruck 125% 90% 105% 105% 105% 105%

Avail Manufacturing Systems Kelley Kelley 100% 80% 50% 65% 30% 35%

Avail SC Planning / Manufacturing / Plant EngineeringKelley Lerner 85% 85% 70% 70% 70% 70%

Avail Manufacturing Systems Kelley Obermayr 105% 125% 110% 50% 25% 25%

Avail Manufacturing Systems DevKey B Kelley Swaton 115% 65% 50% 50% 30% 30%

Avail Warehouse / Distribution / Procurement Kinsale Blackthorne 105% 100% 105% 105% 105% 105%

Avail Warehouse / Distribution / Procurement Kinsale Daleside 110% 105% 30% 55% 25% 25%

Avail Warehouse/Transportation Systems Kinsale Erlanger 120% 110% 95% 95% 45% 45%

Avail Warehouse/Transportation Systems Kinsale Fontana 130% 125% 35% 35% 25% 25%

Avail Finance / Human Resources / Legal Kinsale Heilgeist 125% 120% 125% 125% 125% 125%

Avail Whse/Trans Sys DevKey D Kinsale Kinnesport 100% 115% 80% 90% 40% 40%

Avail Whse/Trans Sys DevKey L Kinsale Kinsale 105% 76% 76% 95% 35% 35%

Avail Finance / Human Resources / Legal Kinsale Pavalar 105% 90% 95% 95% 95% 95%

Avail Warehouse/Transportation Systems Kinsale Flanders 105% 115% 25% 75% 25% 25%

Avail BW: Func Desn/Build, Qrys/Rpts Tucker Andrus 95% 90% 95% 95% 95% 95%

Avail BW ABAP DevKey B Tucker Arbor 137% 92% 77% 107% 77% 37%

Avail BW ABAP DevKey B Tucker Cuharick 92% 107% 72% 67% 27% 27%

Avail BW ABAP DevKey B Tucker Minneta 116% 131% 116% 71% 26% 26%

Avail BW: Func Desn/Build, Qrys/Rpts Tucker Monrovia 100% 95% 95% 95% 95% 95%

Avail BW ABAP DevKey B Tucker Malkhard 61% 56% 26% 26% 26% 26%

Avail BW ABAP DevKey L Tucker Tucker 99% 88% 69% 60% 49% 44%

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Major Change brings Major Bumps

54

Challenge: Multiple, Large, Concurrent Projects

• Six major projects in 2011; go-lives 10/1, 11/1, 12/1, 1/1, 2/1

• Functional resources (operations, finance, etc.) not in the forecast, but often the constraint

Challenge: Large Influx of New Users

• Internally developed system; documentation is good, not great

• Rules of Golf represent some fundamental philosophy changes

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Major Change brings Major Bumps

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Challenge: Multiple, Large, Concurrent Projects

• Six major projects in 2011; go-lives 10/1, 11/1, 12/1, 1/1, 2/1

• Functional resources (operations, finance, etc.) not in the forecast, but often the constraint

Challenge: Large Influx of New Users

• Internally developed system; documentation is good, not great

• Rules of Golf represent some fundamental philosophy changes

Challenge: Change in Basic Business Philosophy

• Then: Slow Growth and Low Risk

• Now: Fast Growth and Medium Risk

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A Natural Law

Sound familiar?

Growing request list

Existing large backlog

Quick-changing demands

Bottlenecks on key resources / skills

Challenge Too many projects and commitments, not enough people

Solution Resource Requirements Forecast + “Local” Project Roadmaps

Manage the constrained resources and let everything else “flow”

Page 59: Resource Forecast and Capacity - Managing Tradeoffs, Enabling Flow

A Natural Law

Sound familiar?

Growing request list

Existing large backlog

Quick-changing demands

Bottlenecks on key resources / skills

Challenge Too many projects and commitments, not enough people

Solution Resource Requirements Forecast + “Local” Project Roadmaps

Manage the constrained resources and let everything else “flow”

Page 60: Resource Forecast and Capacity - Managing Tradeoffs, Enabling Flow

Resource Forecast and Capacity

This presentation is licensed under the Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 3.0 United States license,

available at http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/3.0/

James P. MacLennan Vice President, Information Technology

Pactiv LLC

1900 West Field Court

Lake Forest, IL 60045

(847) 840 8132

[email protected]

An electronic version of these slides is available online

www.cazh1.com

CampIT - IT Portfolio Management Conference

Rosemont, IL Feb 16, 2012

20120216 CAMPIT CONFERENCE ROSEMONT.PPX

Image Credits: By Geoff (originally posted to Flickr as Pilgrim's path) [CC-BY-2.0 (www.creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0)], via Wikimedia Commons

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Mix

Next Steps - Define Standards for Allocation of Resources

How much time on Admin? Department standards / expectations

What tasks, what % of time for “RTB”?

Which systems, resources, time commitment for “Maintenance”?

How much time / resources on the prioritized list of Projects?

What is the `best mix?

“RTB” (25%) Projects (25%)“Maint” (25%) Admin (25%)

“RTB” (30%) Projects (40%)“Maint”

(10%) Admin (20%)

“RTB” (50%)Projects

(10%)

“Maint”

(10%) Admin (30%)

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Symphony 2008 Objectives

Problem:

We [still] prioritize and schedule more work than we can get done!

Cause / Effect:

– Stuff takes a long time to finish

– Stuff takes a long time to get started

– Outside factors stop progress; restarts are painful

– 1 / 2 / 3 / 99 … difficult / inconsistent / squishy

– Stopping something that is already started is almost unheard of

Result:

– Angst about overscheduling …

– Frustration over Constrained Resources

– Frustration over Lack of Control of My Schedule

– ... and we avoid the "most difficult" conversations with business units that want this stuff

we avoid the "No"'s

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Get the Red Out!

Admin

Manager

Resource

Name Jan12 Feb12 Mar12 Apr12 May12 Jun12

Avail SC Planning / Manufacturing / Plant EngineeringKelley Rockwell 105% 90% 100% 105% 105% 105%

Avail SC Planning / Manufacturing / Plant EngineeringKelley Burch 90% 95% 100% 100% 100% 100%

Avail SC Planning / Manufacturing / Plant EngineeringKelley Ellerton 90% 55% 70% 60% 60% 60%

Avail SC Planning / Manufacturing / Plant EngineeringKelley Innsbruck 125% 90% 105% 105% 105% 105%

Avail Manufacturing Systems Kelley Kelley 100% 80% 50% 65% 30% 35%

Avail SC Planning / Manufacturing / Plant EngineeringKelley Lerner 85% 85% 70% 70% 70% 70%

Avail Manufacturing Systems Kelley Obermayr 105% 125% 110% 50% 25% 25%

Avail Manufacturing Systems DevKey B Kelley Swaton 115% 65% 50% 50% 30% 30%

Avail Warehouse / Distribution / Procurement Kinsale Blackthorne 105% 100% 105% 105% 105% 105%

Avail Warehouse / Distribution / Procurement Kinsale Daleside 110% 105% 30% 55% 25% 25%

Avail Warehouse/Transportation Systems Kinsale Erlanger 120% 110% 95% 95% 45% 45%

Avail Warehouse/Transportation Systems Kinsale Fontana 130% 125% 35% 35% 25% 25%

Avail Finance / Human Resources / Legal Kinsale Heilgeist 125% 120% 125% 125% 125% 125%

Avail Whse/Trans Sys DevKey D Kinsale Kinnesport 100% 115% 80% 90% 40% 40%

Avail Whse/Trans Sys DevKey L Kinsale Kinsale 105% 76% 76% 95% 35% 35%

Avail Finance / Human Resources / Legal Kinsale Pavalar 105% 90% 95% 95% 95% 95%

Avail Warehouse/Transportation Systems Kinsale Flanders 105% 115% 25% 75% 25% 25%

Avail BW: Func Desn/Build, Qrys/Rpts Tucker Andrus 95% 90% 95% 95% 95% 95%

Avail BW ABAP DevKey B Tucker Arbor 137% 92% 77% 107% 77% 37%

Avail BW ABAP DevKey B Tucker Cuharick 92% 107% 72% 67% 27% 27%

Avail BW ABAP DevKey B Tucker Minneta 116% 131% 116% 71% 26% 26%

Avail BW: Func Desn/Build, Qrys/Rpts Tucker Monrovia 100% 95% 95% 95% 95% 95%

Avail BW ABAP DevKey B Tucker Malkhard 61% 56% 26% 26% 26% 26%

Avail BW ABAP DevKey L Tucker Tucker 99% 88% 69% 60% 49% 44%