resource adequacy - wecc · 6/11/2020 · the north american bps is divided into six re...
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June 11, 2020
Travis EnglishTraining & Outreach
Specialist
Resource Adequacy Forum
Antitrust Policy
All WECC meetings are conducted in accordance with the WECC Antitrust Policy and the NERC Antitrust Compliance Guidelines
All participants must comply with the policy and guidelines This meeting is public—confidential or proprietary information
should not be discussed in open session
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Antitrust Policy
This webinar is being recorded and will be posted publicly By participating, you give your consent for your name, voice, image and
likeness to be included in that recording WECC strives to ensure the information presented today is accurate and
reflects the views of WECC However, all interpretations and positions are subject to change If you have any questions, please contact WECC’s legal counsel
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Agenda Introduction to the Resource Adequacy Forum
• Vic Howell, Director of Reliability Risk Management
The Importance of a Resource Adequacy Forum
• Jordan White, Vice President of Strategic Engagement & Deputy Counsel
Current WECC Resource Adequacy
• Matt Elkins, Manager, Performance Analysis & Resource Adequacy
Future Resource Adequacy Planning
• Travis English, Training & Outreach Specialist; Matt Elkins, Vic Howell
Open Discussion
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June 11, 2020
Vic HowellDirector of Reliability
Risk Management
WECC Resource Adequacy Forum Kick-off
Why are we creating a forum?
Consistent with the “why” of WECC Resource adequacy is an emerging reliability risk Supports WECC’s proposed near-term priority:
• Evaluate Interconnection-wide resource adequacy and performance considering—o Importance of working with resource planners and decision-makerso Benefits of resource diversity (geographical and resource type)o Technology performance during various conditions (e.g., solar during extreme heat)
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What is a Forum?
Purpose is to facilitate discussions Does not produce work products Does not report to any committee Does not need to have a charter Meetings are typically open to the public Meetings should have an agenda, but do not need to have minutes
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Recent Activity at WECC
Finalizing NERC Long-Term Reliability Assessment (LTRA) Participating in NWPP RA initiative Created the MAC RAWG Established a new near-term priority for RA Reporting out to the board next week on RA action item assigned
in March meeting Creating and kicking-off new WECC RA forum
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Vision for WECC’s Role in RA
Supplement NERC LTRA with “WECC Resource Adequacy assessment”
Expand on RA assessments to include a variety of scenarios Work with entities on their RA assessments Become a hub for RA discussions through new RA Forum
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WECC’s Vision for RA Forum
WECC is uniquely positioned to serve as a hub for RA discussions in the West• Wide-area view• Reliability focus• Independence• Partnership
To create an open environment for constructive sharing and learning To have a venue where everyone can be heard and where we can work
together To meet twice a year—spring and fall
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Today’s Objectives
Kick off the forum Share our vision Talk about why the forum is important Describe what we do at WECC in RA space Get feedback for future forum meetings
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June 11, 2020
Jordan WhiteVice President of Strategic
Engagement & Deputy Counsel
The Importance of a Resource Adequacy
Forum
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June 11, 2020
Matthew Elkins—Manager, Performance Analysis &
Resource Adequacy
Current WECC Resource Adequacy
Resource Adequacy Process
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Data Collection and Validation
Model Update and Database
Population
WECC-Wide Zonal Modeling
Compile and Analyze Results with Stakeholder
Input
Report Final Results
Loads and Resources Data Request
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Annual Data Request• December–March
o Generation Existing and planned Hourly wind, solar
and hydro
o Demand Historic and forecast Historic hourly Forecast peak/energy
o Transmission New and upgrades
WECC-BA-LSE Coordination
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Balancing Authority
LSE/Utilities
WECC
State PUC
Consultants
Resource Adequacy Process
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Data Collection and Validation
Model Update and Database
Population
WECC-Wide Zonal Modeling
Compile and Analyze Results with Stakeholder
Input
Report Final Results
Many Databases
Hourly historical• Demand• Generation
o Hydroo Windo Solar
• Generator outage information (NERC GADS)
Forecast• Demand• Resource portfolio
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# of Databases:
325
Yikes
Resource Adequacy Process
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Data Collection and Validation
Model Update and Database
Population
WECC-Wide Zonal Modeling
Compile and Analyze Results with Stakeholder
Input
Report Final Results
MAVRIC Model
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Multi-Area Variable Resource Integration Convolution (MAVRIC) model
Multi-Area—Incorporates all balancing authorities in the western interconnection
Variable Resource Integration—Ability to understand the variability around new resources
Convolution—A type of probabilistic study
Model Overview
Expansive Balancing Authority Model• BAs broken into additional zones• Some BAs combined into zones
Major Paths between BAs
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MAVRIC Convolution
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There are many ways to perform probabilistic studies; each have their strengths and weaknesses
Using convolution techniques, Markov-Chain models, and with the ability to use transfers dynamically, MAVRIC can model the overall system reliability while maintaining adequate run-time and computing capabilities
Resource Adequacy Process
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Data Collection and Validation
Model Update and Database
Population
WECC-Wide Zonal Modeling
Compile and Analyze Results with Stakeholder
Input
Report Final Results
Results from MAVRIC
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Analysis of the entire system and ability of all load-serving areas to maintain a reliability reserve margin that leaves LOLP for all hours equal to or less than 0.02% is derived
Analysis is then done on any areas where the reliability threshold margin cannot be maintained even after external assistance from excess load-serving areas
Regional Results—Before Transfers
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0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
0% 10% 20% 30%
MWh/million
CAMX NWUS SW RM CAN
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
0% 10% 20% 30%
LOL(h)
CAMX NWUS SW RM CAN
Frequency Severity
Islanded Basis—No External Assistance Available
Regional Results—After Transfers
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0
200
400
600
800
1,000
10% 15% 20% 25% 30%
MWh/million
CAMX NWUS
0
5
10
15
20
10% 15% 20% 25% 30%
LOL(h)
CAMX NWUS
Frequency Severity
System Basis—External Assistance Available
Regional Results—Over Time
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0
5
10
15
20
10% 15% 20% 25% 30%
LOL(h)
2019 2020 2021 2022
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
10% 15% 20% 25% 30%
MWh/million
2019 2020 2021 2022
Frequency Severity
System Basis—External Assistance Available
CAMX
Resource Adequacy Process
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Data Collection and Validation
Model Update and Database
Population
WECC-Wide Zonal Modeling
Compile and Analyze Results with Stakeholder
Input
Report Final Results
Reporting
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NERC Assessments• Long-Term Reliability Assessment (LTRA)
o Summer and winter peak-hour assessmento Years 1-10o Reserve margin metrics
• Seasonal Assessments (SRA/WRA)o Operating-year winter and summer peak-houro Reserve margin metrics
• Probabilistic Assessment (ProbA)o 2- and 4-year emphasiso 8760 hourso Loss-of-Load Probability (LOLP) and Expected Unserved Energy (EUE) metrics
Internal special assessments and scenarios GRAF
NERC Reporting Boundaries
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The North American BPS is divided into six RE boundaries. The banded area shows overlap, as some load-serving entities participate in one Region while associated Transmission Owners and Operators participate in another.
NERC Assessment Areas
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WECC Regions
California/Mexico (CAMX) Canada (CAN) Northwest (NWUS) Rocky Mountains (RM) Southwest (SW)
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Reliability Assessment Subcommittee
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NERC Subcommittee• Forum for planning and facilitating NERC assessment• Meets in-person, four to five times a year, many more webinars,
rotates between the U.S. and Canada• Roster of ~50+
o Industry experts, NERC staff, FERC staff, DOE staff, regional and local representatives
Long-Term Reliability Assessment
Focused on peak summer and winter hour for next 10 years
Compares demand to capacity plus transfers
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Seasonal Assessments
Peak Hour Energy lost due to:
• Forced outages• Extreme conditions
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Probabilistic Assessment Working Group
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NERC Work Group• Forum for planning and facilitating
probabilistic analysis and education• Meets in-person, four to five times a year,
many more webinars, rotates between the U.S. and Canada
• Roster of ~50+o Industry experts, NERC staff, FERC staff, DOE
staff, regional and local representatives
Probabilistic Assessment
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Looks at all hours of the year for the next 10 years
Analyzes a range of possibilities around the expected
Determines where extreme tail risk may occur
Reporting
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NERC Assessments• Long-Term Reliability Assessment (LTRA)
o Summer and winter peak-hour assessmento Years 1-10o Reserve margin metrics
• Seasonal Assessments (SRA/WRA)o Operating-year winter and summer peak-houro Reserve margin metrics
• Probabilistic Assessment (ProbA)o 2- and 4-year emphasiso 8760 hourso Loss-of-Load Probability (LOLP) and Expected Unserved Energy (EUE) metrics
Internal special assessments and scenarios GRAF
Peak Hour Shifting
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Change in Threshold Margins
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Are
a
Gas
Coa
l
Nuc
lear
Geo
ther
mal
Biom
ass
Hyd
ro
Win
d
Sola
r
Fixe
d
Var
iabl
e
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Ann
ual
1 42% 0% 0% 48% 4% 3% 0% 3% 93% 7% 12% 14% 12% 14% 13%
2 56% 18% 0% 15% 0% 1% 5% 5% 89% 11% 9% 12% 10% 9% 10%
3 43% 24% 17% 0% 0% 2% 10% 4% 84% 16% 12% 13% 11% 12% 12%
4 26% 53% 0% 3% 1% 0% 0% 17% 83% 17% 9% 12% 11% 9% 10%
5 38% 41% 0% 0% 1% 4% 15% 0% 80% 20% 18% 18% 12% 15% 16%
6 50% 23% 6% 0% 0% 10% 7% 5% 79% 21% 18% 18% 15% 18% 17%
7 78% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 6% 15% 79% 21% 11% 13% 18% 11% 13%
8 50% 22% 3% 0% 2% 16% 5% 3% 76% 24% 16% 21% 23% 17% 19%
9 42% 25% 0% 0% 0% 15% 17% 1% 67% 33% 17% 19% 14% 17% 17%
10 53% 0% 6% 3% 2% 21% 7% 7% 64% 36% 12% 16% 14% 10% 13%
11 13% 44% 0% 0% 0% 26% 18% 0% 57% 43% 22% 22% 15% 16% 19%
12 9% 39% 0% 0% 3% 30% 19% 0% 51% 49% 24% 24% 22% 24% 24%
13 41% 4% 0% 0% 0% 53% 0% 3% 45% 55% 25% 28% 20% 19% 23%
14 15% 9% 2% 0% 1% 58% 15% 0% 27% 73% 23% 29% 21% 17% 23%
Time-of-Day Thresholds
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GRAF
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https://www.wecc.org/ePubs/GenerationResourceAdequacyForecast
Interactive Charts and Maps
Demand
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Overall – The peak hour demand in the Western Interconnection is expected to grow almost 9% in the next 10 years.
Resource Nameplate
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Overall –Resource nameplate is expected to grow almost 9% in the next 10 years as well.
Much of that growth will be in variable resources.
Variability in Resources
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The availability factor of variable resources compared to the availability factor of baseload resources reveals quite a difference, both seasonally and hourly.
With a shift from baseload resources to variable resources, studying all hours of the year will become paramount for resource adequacy.
Resource Adequacy of a Wind Region
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Lower margins in the morning hours lead to risk in the system. Variability within the hour for both resources and demand leads to a range of possible risk.
Planning Margins in a Wind Region
A planning margin, in this case the threshold margin, is the amount of planning reserves above demand that should be maintained to ensure reliability
Comparing this threshold to the available resources can reveal where the risk is in the system
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Risk Hours in a Wind Region
Before relying on neighbors for imports, risk in that area can be quantified as the overall number of hours with risk of demand not being served
Called a loss-of-load event
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Risk Hours After Imports
With enough excess energy available in the system and enough import capability into this area, all potential loss-of-load hours can be satisfied, alleviating the risk
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Resource Adequacy of a Solar Region
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In this area, lower margins occur in the evening hours as the solar resource availability drops off faster than the ramp-down of demand from its peak hour. This leads to risk in the system. Variability within the hour for both resources and demand leads to a range of possible risk.
Planning Margins in a Solar Region
A planning margin, in this case the threshold margin, is the amount of planning reserves above demand that should be maintained to ensure reliability
Comparing this threshold to the available resources can reveal where the risk is
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Risk Hours in a Solar Region
Before relying on neighbors for imports, risk in that area can be quantified as the overall number of hours with risk of demand not being served
Called a loss-of-load event
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Risk Hours After Imports
Unfortunately, consistent with CAISO’s notice, even after import assistance from their neighbors, there are still a few hours in which availability plus imports is less than the planning reserve margin
These hours occur right after peak demand as solar resources fall more sharply than demand subsides
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