resistance and resilience some basic postulates … walter g. green iii, ph.d., faccp disaster...

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RESISTANCE AND RESILIENCE Some basic postulates … Walter G. Green III, Ph.D., FACCP Disaster Theory Series No. 4 Copyright 2008 by Walter G. Green III

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Page 1: RESISTANCE AND RESILIENCE Some basic postulates … Walter G. Green III, Ph.D., FACCP Disaster Theory Series No. 4 Copyright 2008 by Walter G. Green III

RESISTANCE AND RESILIENCE

Some basic postulates …

Walter G. Green III, Ph.D., FACCP

Disaster Theory Series No. 4Copyright 2008 by Walter G. Green III

Page 2: RESISTANCE AND RESILIENCE Some basic postulates … Walter G. Green III, Ph.D., FACCP Disaster Theory Series No. 4 Copyright 2008 by Walter G. Green III

DISASTER RESISTANCE

Implies the ability to: Resist the onset and impact of a

disaster Continue to function at close to

normal capacity and capability Resume normal operations with

minimal disruption Defeat the impact of the event

Page 3: RESISTANCE AND RESILIENCE Some basic postulates … Walter G. Green III, Ph.D., FACCP Disaster Theory Series No. 4 Copyright 2008 by Walter G. Green III

DISASTER RESILIENCE

Implies the ability to: Absorb the impact of a disaster Gracefully degrade under the impact In such a way that we can return to

normal operations with the least possible delay and the least possible dysfunction

Limit the impact of the event

Page 4: RESISTANCE AND RESILIENCE Some basic postulates … Walter G. Green III, Ph.D., FACCP Disaster Theory Series No. 4 Copyright 2008 by Walter G. Green III

PRACTICAL EXAMPLES

Resistance measures: Levees to deal with river flooding Building codes to protect against fire,

high winds, etc. Well developed emergency services Cleared ground around homes to

protect against wildfires

Page 5: RESISTANCE AND RESILIENCE Some basic postulates … Walter G. Green III, Ph.D., FACCP Disaster Theory Series No. 4 Copyright 2008 by Walter G. Green III

PRACTICAL EXAMPLES

Resilience measures: Shelters and evacuation planning Community volunteer teams such as

CERT, ARES, RACES Community disaster recovery task

forces Backup generators

Page 6: RESISTANCE AND RESILIENCE Some basic postulates … Walter G. Green III, Ph.D., FACCP Disaster Theory Series No. 4 Copyright 2008 by Walter G. Green III

POSTULATE 1

Resistance and resilience are complimentary

Impact – resist vs. absorb Function – continue vs. gracefully

degrade Resume operations – minimal delay

vs. least possible Defeat vs. limit

Page 7: RESISTANCE AND RESILIENCE Some basic postulates … Walter G. Green III, Ph.D., FACCP Disaster Theory Series No. 4 Copyright 2008 by Walter G. Green III

POSTULATE 2

No community can be resistant or resilient to all hazards

May be resistant to some hazards May be resilient when faced with

other hazards May be vulnerable to still others

Page 8: RESISTANCE AND RESILIENCE Some basic postulates … Walter G. Green III, Ph.D., FACCP Disaster Theory Series No. 4 Copyright 2008 by Walter G. Green III

POSTULATE 2 continued

The classic example – even with the best civil defence measures in the world, few communities would even meet minimal resilience criteria if they were targeted by multiple 1-5 megaton nuclear weapons

Page 9: RESISTANCE AND RESILIENCE Some basic postulates … Walter G. Green III, Ph.D., FACCP Disaster Theory Series No. 4 Copyright 2008 by Walter G. Green III

POSTULATE 3

Cost increases as you move from resilience to resistance

At the same time specificity may well also increase so that a specific resistance measure may have limited utility against other threats

Page 10: RESISTANCE AND RESILIENCE Some basic postulates … Walter G. Green III, Ph.D., FACCP Disaster Theory Series No. 4 Copyright 2008 by Walter G. Green III

POSTULATE 4

There is a reasonable compromise: plan to achieve resistance where

possible against high value threats, and

achieve resilience for those we cannot reasonably resist

Page 11: RESISTANCE AND RESILIENCE Some basic postulates … Walter G. Green III, Ph.D., FACCP Disaster Theory Series No. 4 Copyright 2008 by Walter G. Green III

POSTULATE 5

Resistance and resilience are achieved in differing programmatic phases

For a community with no recent disasters: Resistance – mitigation and

preparedness Resilience – preparedness, response,

recovery

Page 12: RESISTANCE AND RESILIENCE Some basic postulates … Walter G. Green III, Ph.D., FACCP Disaster Theory Series No. 4 Copyright 2008 by Walter G. Green III

POSTULATE 5 continued

For a community with a recent disaster: Resistance – mitigation,

preparedness, recovery Resilience – preparedness, response,

recovery

Page 13: RESISTANCE AND RESILIENCE Some basic postulates … Walter G. Green III, Ph.D., FACCP Disaster Theory Series No. 4 Copyright 2008 by Walter G. Green III

POSTULATE 6

Effective resistance and resilience requires: Coordinated integrated effort Long term commitment Partnership between government,

business and industry, voluntary agencies, and the citizenry

Page 14: RESISTANCE AND RESILIENCE Some basic postulates … Walter G. Green III, Ph.D., FACCP Disaster Theory Series No. 4 Copyright 2008 by Walter G. Green III

POSTULATE 7 The more resistant and resilient a community

is: The less the damage from a bad event. The cheaper the disaster costs (balanced

against increased emergency management costs).

The more rapid the return to normal. The lower the rate of dysfunction in the

community post disaster.