resilient systems engineering prepared for incose_il & gordon center for systems engineering at...

Resilient Systems EngineeringResilient Systems Engineering

Prepared for INCOSE_IL & Gordon Center for Systems Engineering at the TECHNION

bybyJack RingJack Ring

CTO, Educe LLCCTO, Educe LLCFellow, INCOSEFellow, INCOSE

1/24/11 1

Resilient Systems EngineeringResilient Systems Engineering

Prepared for INCOSE_IL & Gordon Center for Systems Engineering at the TECHNION

bybyJack RingJack Ring

CTO, Educe LLCCTO, Educe LLCFellow, INCOSEFellow, INCOSE

1/24/11 2

You don’t know Jack?You don’t know Jack?• 1957 – 2010. • System Test & Evaluation. • System Engineering. • Object technology, 1971.• Action research, intelligent enterprises. • Enterprise architect, Starshine Planet, world-wide youth education in

mind, body, spirit, heath and wealth.• Tutorials: INCOSE 1994, 2001, 2003, 2005, IL 2005.• Member: INCOSE (Fellow), ISSS, IEEE SMC, ACM, etc• Co-chair, INCOSE WG’s for

– Autonomous Systems T&E, 2009 -– Motor Sports as learning environment, 2008 -– Intelligent Enterprises, 2002 – 2007

• Member, Kennen Technologies LLC, OntoPilot LLC, Educe LLC

1/24/11 3©Jack Ring. Attributed copies permitted

In the next 45 minutes ---In the next 45 minutes ---Me @ 50%, You @ 50%Me @ 50%, You @ 50%


Resilient System Resilient System Stress vs. StrainStress vs. Strain


Resilient: Replace Resilient: Replace circa 1920circa 1920

Upper airplane lost one of its wheels. Gladys Ingles installing

a replacement wheel in flight .

She transfers from wing to wing. Expertly works herself down to the undercarriage only a few feet from a spinning prop .

She installs the wheel then stands on the wing of the repaired plane to a successful landing .

:// . 365. / 365_ . ? =1235http www oshkosh org ok DiscussionBoardTopic aspx id &bo=147 =180 =5584ardid &forumid &topicid

With the replacement wheel strapped to her back she rides the wing of a rescue plane to the plane that lacks the wheel.

1/24/11 6

http://www.oshkosh365.org/ok365_DiscussionBoardTopic.aspx?id=1235&boardid=147&forumid=180&topicid=5584

http://www.oshkosh365.org/ok365_DiscussionBoardTopic.aspx?id=1235&boardid=147&forumid=180&topicid=5584

Current ViewsCurrent Views


RESILIENT

1969

1/24/11 8

OVERRIDE

MODE

Current Views, con’t.Current Views, con’t.

• J. Fiksel – Dow Chemical Corp. “… the capacity to survive, adapt, and grow in the face of turbulent change – Key elements of resilience include capable employees, an agile supply chain, effective decision processes, and strong external relationships.


Resilient: Resilient: Reflexive, circa 500 A.D.Reflexive, circa 500 A.D.

1/24/11 10

RREESSIILLIIEENNTT

1/24/11 11

MULTIPARTY

DYNAMICS

Essence of Resilient SystemsEssence of Resilient Systems

1/24/11 12

Semiotics of SystemsSemiotics of Systemse = entity

= relation

e e = ‘system’

e

ee= ‘system’ (explicit)

e

ee= ‘system’ (implicit)

e

ee= ‘system’ (soft)



= relation

e e = ‘system’

e


e


e


= behavior = π

e

eeRS

S = Stimulus, R = Response

System DoesSystem Does

1/24/11©Jack Ring. Attributed copies permitted

14


= relation

e e = ‘system’

e


e


e


e =

e

eeEntity can contain a system

e

ee

e

e

e

eee

System of Systems(promulgates ambiguity)

= behavior = π

e

eeRS

S = Stimulus, R = Response

System DoesSystem Does


A Goal

Action Triggers

Energy

Competency

Situation

Closure, G-S

GS System

OUTPUTS

Response

Status Reports

Learning

Goal AttainmentSensitivity to DisturbanceStability Limits

MeasuresCulture

Business ClimateCompeting Goals

Situation

INPUTS

Request

Resources

Time

Disturbances

Resilient System Meta-modelResilient System Meta-model


18

Closure Metrics Closure Metrics Range, Response time, Accuracy, ParsimonyRange, Response time, Accuracy, Parsimony

Time

Step ChangeGoal

B

A


19


Time

Step ChangeGoal

B

A

EnterpriseResponse


20


Time

Step ChangeGoal

B

A

EnterpriseResponse

Next Change


Resilient Systems Example CategoriesResilient Systems Example Categories

OutIn

Situation

Pr = Problem SpaceVal = Value SpaceS = StimulusR = ResponseSit = Situationπ = System Transfer

Function



ProblemSpace

Class

Typef(t)

ValueSpace

ClassType

f(t)OutIn

Situation


Function



ProblemSpace

Class

Typef(t)

ValueSpace

ClassType

f(t)OutIn

Situation


Function

Value

ClassType

π



π = f(k) = ballistic

π = f(O) = governor

π = f(I) = compensator

π = f(π) = self-test, auto repair

π = f(Sit, O) = homeostatic

π = f(Val) = goal-seeking

π = f(Pr) = self-organizing

π = f(Pr, Val) = autopoietic

π = f(all) = autocatalytic

ProblemSpace

Class

Typef(t)

ValueSpace

ClassType

f(t)OutIn

Situation


Function

Value

ClassType

π


Resilient System Engineering PraxisResilient System Engineering Praxis


System Context

System1.

Adapted from Science of Generic Design, John Warfield

The Essence of Creating SystemsThe Essence of Creating Systems


System Context

System1.


ProblemSuppression

System2.

Problem System;Content, Process,Behavior



System Context

System1.


Problem SuppressionSystem: Content3.

ProblemSuppression

System2.




System Context

System1.


Problem SuppressionSystem: Content3.

Problem Suppression System: Content, Process, Behavior

4.t1

t2

t3

ProblemSuppression

System2.




30

Problematic Situation DimensionsProblematic Situation Dimensions

Extent

Variety

Ambiguity

Low Med High

State-determined

Stochastic

Non-deterministic

‘Wicked’ Problems

Extent: # of cognatesVariety: # of unique cognates, both semiotic and temporalAmbiguity: fog, conflicting data, cognitive overload

Ring, J., Modeling a Systems Engineering Enterprise, 2007 Conference on SE Research, Hoboken, NJ


31

Problematic Situation DimensionsProblematic Situation Dimensions

Extent

Variety

Ambiguity

Low Med High

State-determined

Stochastic

Non-deterministic

‘Wicked’ Problems

Extent: # of cognatesVariety: # of unique cognates, both semiotic and temporalAmbiguity: fog, conflicting data, cognitive overload

Ring, J., Modeling a Systems Engineering Enterprise, 2007 Conference on SE Research, Hoboken, NJ


MTTE(K) = 10 yrMTTE(K) = 10 yr 1 yr 1 yr 0.1 yr 0.1 yr

MTTE = Mean Time To Emergence, K = Knowledge

1/24/11 32

Extent, Variety, Ambiguity

System Engineering ContributionsSystem Engineering Contributions

• Language the Project• Model the Intended System

(including Closure > Variety & Ambiguity)

• Converge Creativity to (design) Closure


SystemEngineering

EngineeringOf Systems

Worth of SE ContributionsWorth of SE Contributions

Staley, S. M. 1995, “Complexity Measurements in System Design” in Integrated Design and Process Technology, A. Ertes, et al, Editors, IDTP Volume 1, Austin, TX, 153-161

ProblematicSituation

SystemsEngineering

EngineeringOf SystemsM(PSys)

SCI = XError = Φ

M(PSS)SCI = X/K1

Error = Φ/K2


Worth of SE ContributionsWorth of SE Contributions

SCI = (N/7) (V/5) (K/10) = (1/350) NVKWhere: N is Miller Index, V is Spreadthink index and K = DeMorgan index

Staley, S. M. 1995, “Complexity Measurements in System Design” in Integrated Design and Process Technology, A. Ertes, et al, Editors, IDTP Volume 1, Austin, TX, 153-161

SCI > X(i) indicates M(PSS) Not Ready for Engineering (i)

ProblematicSituation

SystemsEngineering

EngineeringOf SystemsM(PSys)

SCI = XError = Φ

M(PSS)SCI = X/K1

Error = Φ/K2

e.g., Warfield’s Situation Complexity Index


1/24/11 3636090112 [email protected] 36

ELSE, System of Systems!ELSE, System of Systems!

Resilient SE PractitionersResilient SE Practitioners

1/24/11 37

Raise your hand for the ideal Associate ---Raise your hand for the ideal Associate ---

What kind of SE What kind of SE should we be?should we be?

Clings to Clings to

mental model. mental model.

Co-evolves to Co-evolves to

fit the situation.fit the situation.

___ autocatalytic

___ autopoietic,

___ self-organizing,

___ goal-seeking,

___ homeostatic,

___ self-test and repair

___ compensator,

___ governor,

___ ballistic, 1/24/11 38

©Jack Ring. Attributed copies permitted

1/24/11 39

1: Competency in Language of SE 1: Competency in Language of SE

“We (animals having a frontal lobe) started using our language for reasoning before we learned to use our language for the purpose of communicating with one another. …The correct use of propositions and chains of propositions is critical to appropriate adult behavior.”“Language and Human Behavior,” Prof. Derek Bickerton, U. of Washington Press, 1995,

Human language and knowledge is:

Extensible in both facts and propositions, apparently without limit.

The source of our unique, powerful abilities of abstraction, imagination, synthesis and prescription.


Linear, Associative, Janusian, Hegelian, ?

2. Relationships Pattern: CMM? 2. Relationships Pattern: CMM?

1/24/11 41

2. Relationships Pattern: EDAC 2. Relationships Pattern: EDAC

Passes completed < 80%, Goals/Shots on Goal < 1/7

2. Relationships Pattern: Chaordic?2. Relationships Pattern: Chaordic?

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10,000 hours N Error Detections and Corrections

42©Jack Ring. Attributed copies permitted

25%

50%

75%

100%

5 10 15 20

Size of Workgroup

Encouraging, Admonishing

Anxious,Insincere

Critical,Destructive

Interpersonal style isdominant factor with 5X leverage onachievement

UnexploredTerritoryof the IntelligentEnterprise

Per

cen

t A

chie

vem

ent

3. Objective vs. Team Player?3. Objective vs. Team Player?(highly simplified)(highly simplified)

Workgroup Efficiency Limit


Adapted from Amity and Enmity, R. Starkermann43

PSE’s Interact as

2nd Order, Implicit Systems

UnconsciousConscious

Self realization goals

Will Powers

disturbances

“Amity and Enmity” by R. Starkerman [email protected] ISBN 3-908730-29-5 Fig. V-9

44

mailto:[email protected]

Frances Ford CoppolaFrances Ford CoppolaCinema Director Cinema Director

“The secret to making a good movie is -- getting everyone to make the same movie.”


4. Closure (G-S) Rules for System Engineering4. Closure (G-S) Rules for System Engineering

Within Dynamic and Integrity LimitsX, d(X)/dt, d2(X)/dt2

•Thermodynamics: mass, momentum and energy•Informatics: data, information and knowledge •Teleonomics: skills, rate of learning, and rate of invention •Human social dynamics: trust, enthusiasm, co-evolution•Economic: Investment, ROI, Liquidity •Ecology: Waste, Fads, Unintended Consequences

Adjust: Gradients on relationshipsArrange: Pattern of relationshipsCo-align: Content of system with context constraints.


System ActionsObserveOrientDecideAct

See also ---See also ---

1/24/11 47

Observe --- Orient --- Decide --- Act(Col. John Boyd cycle)

Plan --- Do --- Check --- Adjust(Shewhart cycle)

Plan --- Do --- Check --- Act(Deming cycle)

Double Loop Learning(Argyris & Schon)

Second order cybernetics(von Foerster, et al)

5. The Reflective Practitioner5. The Reflective PractitionerFour ascending levels of behavior:

1. Know how. 2. Reflection -- on how 'know how' was applied. 3. Knowing-in-action (devising while doing) 4. Reflection-in-action.

A Practitioner must have two kinds of knowing:– Objectivist - descriptive– Constructivist – prescriptive - world making

Designing cannot be taught -- but can be coachedDesigning: knowledge-in-action, holistic, honors unspecified (unspecifiable?) design qualities (aesthetics)

Methods of Coaching The Reflective Practitioner– Joint experimentation, – Follow Me!– Hall of Mirrors

Educating the Reflective Practitioner, Donald Schon, Jossey Bass, 19871/24/11 48


Take-aways?Take-aways?

• System IS, DOES, KNOWS (some even LEARN!). • Problem Systems, Problem Suppression Systems, Gestation

Systems (SE and EofS)• At least 9 categories of resilient systems.• SE, a gestation system, reduces EVA for the E of S cadre

• By people, • Pursuing MOE’s @ standard of care by requisite variety.• Achieving knowledge exchange and choice making• Using coherent language, appropriate interpersonal style,

and proactive, mutual error detection and correction.


The castle, Hawkins, besiege the castle!castle!

Clarifications?Clarifications?


The castle, Hawkins, besiege the castle!castle!

Thank YouThank You

Clarifications?Clarifications?


Further ReadingFurther Reading

Jackson, S., Architecting Resilient Systems: Accident Avoidance and Survival and Recovery from Disruptions, John Wiley and Sons.

The Infrastructure Security Partnership (TISP) (www.tisp.org)international Resilience Engineering Network. www.resilience-engineering.org

Hollnagel, E., D. Woods, N. Leveson Resilience Engineering: Concepts and Precepts, Ashgate Publishing Limited

Fiksel, J., Design for Environment: A Guide to Sustainable Product Development, was published by McGraw-Hill in 2009.

Gunderson, L. H. 2000 ECOLOGICAL RESILIENCE - IN THEORY AND APPLICATION Annual Review of Ecology & Systematics, 31: 425

Sobel-Lojeski, K., Reilly, R., Uniting the Virtual Workforce, Wiley, 2008 Sobel-Lojeski, K., Leading the Virtual Workforce, Wiley, 2009Dove, Rick, Response Ability: the language, structure and culture of the agile

enterprise, Wiley, 2001. Ring, J. (ed) About Intelligent Enterprises, a collection of knowledge claims,

INCOSE IS07 CD.1/24/11 52

http://www.tisp.org/

http://www.resilience-engineering.org/

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