resilience planning with the undrr disaster resilience
TRANSCRIPT
Resilience Planning with the UNDRR Disaster Resilience Scorecard for Cities, and the Public Health Addendum
Dr Peter Williams
April 2020
Contents
§ Introduction§ Resilience Plan Perspectives§ Resilience Plan Workshop Process§ Next Steps
Introduction
§ These slides illustrate how to use the UNDRR’s Disaster Resilience Scorecard for Cities, together with the Public Health Addendum (PHA).
§ Scorecards are very good at identifying strengths and weaknesses. They are less good at identifying what needs to be done as a result – how in other words, a city should move forward.
§ The slides therefore set out a process to create a “Resilience Agenda” – a sequenced set of actions and activities that will address any deficiencies revealed in applying the scorecard.– It is assumed for illustration purposes here that the work will be executed through a workshop,
using the short form of the scorecard specifically designed for this purpose. – However, the process can also be used with the long-form version of the scorecard in a separate
consulting study.
Contents
§ Resilience Plan Perspectives§ Resilience Planning Questions§ Resilience Plan Workshop Process
Essential 1: Organize for Resilience
Essential 2: Identify, Understand and Use Current and Future Risk Scenarios
Essential 3: Strengthen Financial
Capacity for Resilience
Essential 4: Pursue Resilient Urban
Development
Essential 5: Safeguard Natural
Buffers
Essential 6: Strengthen Institutional Capacity for Resilience
Essential 7: Increase Social and Cultural Resilience
Essential 8: Increase Infrastructure
Resilience
Essential 9: Ensure Effective
Disaster Response
Essential 10: Expedite Recovery and
Build Back Better
Governance Integrated Planning and Preparation Response/Recovery
The UNDRR’s “Ten Essentials” For Making Cities Resilient
Public Health Addendum (PHA) (Covers the same Ten Essentials as above)
Perspective 1: Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) embraces chronic and acute stresses
§ Examples of interactions:– Where deforestation (chronic stress) exacerbates flash flooding (acute shock);– Where economic or social deprivation (chronic stress) exacerbates a pandemic, or undermines recovery
from an acute shock/disaster.
Perspective 2: DRR for cities must embrace “systems of systems”.
§ Cities are complex because they are where multiple systems come together and interact.
§ Connections and interactions abound, both causal and related to resources and data.
§ Overlook the connections, and you may miss key interdependencies, or “failure chains”
– These may only become apparent as the disaster happens, or afterwards.
– Failure chains can include economic and social systems.
§ But because each system may have different owners (sometimes in the private sector) and stakeholders, resilience is a “team sport” – a multi-organizational endeavor.
Perspective 3: DRR is a process, with multiple timescales.
Perspective 4: DRR requires a “U-shaped” community engagement model
“Top Down”§ Traditional focus:
“government to citizen”– Laws, policies,
regulations, codes.– Advice, warnings,
notifications.– Open data.
“Bottom Up”§ “Citizen to government”
– Immediate needs for help.
– Comments, feedback, complaints.
– Suggestions, requests.– Sentiment.
Government
“Side to Side”§ Peer to peer (people, groups, neighborhoods).
– Self help, community engagement, deep local knowledge – individuals who may be housebound, for example.
Contents
§ Resilience Planning Questions§ Resilience Plan Workshop Process
§ What? What does the city need to improve, to increase its resilience? Where are the gaps?– The Scorecard
§ How? How should it do this? What infrastructure updates, and what organizational, process or technology changes are needed?
– The “Resilience Agenda”. § When? In what sequence should action be taken? What should the CAPEX priorities be?§ Why? Why does this make financial sense, and what is the business case?
Decisions reached need to be technically possible, economically feasible and politically acceptable!
§ How we approach each of these is now described.
A resilience plan needs to answer 4 questions
What? Examples of possible Scorecard findings under each Essential
Essential 1: Organize for Resilience- Fragmented
organization- Key stakeholders not
engaged- Incompatible priorities &
assumptions
Essential 2: Identify, Understand and Use Current and Future Risk Scenarios- Scenarios incomplete
or out of date – take no account of climate change or urbanization
- Exposures not known –eg linkages between critical assets.
Essential 3: Strengthen Financial Capacity for Resilience- No clear view of
financial costs and benefits of resilience
- No budget, or no protection for the budget.
Essential 4: Pursue Resilient Urban Development- Critical assets not well
sited for resilience.- Critical assets not at
code.
Essential 5: Safeguard Natural Buffers- Key natural buffers
known to be degraded – service levels or resilience at risk.
Essential 6: Strengthen Institutional Capacity for Resilience- Insufficient skills in key
disciplines.- Lack of shared data –
no “one version of the truth”.
Essential 7: Increase Social and Cultural Resilience- Lack of community
engagement: poor community awareness of risks to service and and required responses.
Essential 8: Increase Infrastructure Resilience- Structural
weaknesses/capacity constraints in key infrastructure items.
- No data back-up or disaster management
Essential 9: Ensure Effective Disaster Response- Insufficient response
assets- No integrated event
management capability and systems.
- Lack of drills and practices.
Essential 10: Expedite Recovery and Build Back Better- No post event recovery
planning or funding.- Incomplete plans for
service restoration.
Governance Integrated Planning and Preparation Response
§ We first identify functional areas in the city or department where action may be required to improve its resilience. Our default set is below:
How? The “resilience agenda”: how does the city go about increasing its resilience? Which actions are required?
4. Information
5. Infrastructure and Facilities
1. Strategy and Vision
2. Organization
3. Processes
6. Environment
7. Community
8. Financial$
§ This default set of functional areas can be modified as required.
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8. Financial
How? Actions are identified that deliver the required improvements for each essential.
4. Information
5. Infrastructure and facilities
1. Strategy and vision
2. Organization
3. Processes
6. Environment
7. Community
(UN Ten Essentials: “What needs to be improved?”)
Essential 1: Organize for resilience
Essential 2: Identify, Understand and U
se C
urrent and Future Risk Scenarios
Essential 3: Strengthen Financial Capacity for
Resilience
Essential 4: Pursue Resilient U
rban D
evelopment
Essential 5: Safeguard Natural Buffers
Essential 6: Strengthen Institutional Capacity
for Resilience
Essential 7: Increase Social and Cultural
Resilience
Essential 8: Increase Infrastructure Resilience
Essential 9: Ensure Effective Disaster
Response
Essential 10: Expedite Recovery and Build
Back BetterHo
wsh
ould
impr
ovem
ents
be
mad
e?
Actions may arise at any intersection in the matrix
$
§ The resulting matrix becomes the basis for the Resilience Agenda
15
8. Financial
7. Community
6. Environment
5. Infrastructure and facilities
4. Information
3. Processes
2. Organization
How? Example of Resilience Agenda: Essential 2
Essential 2 (Identify, Understand and Use Current and Future Risk Scenarios):- Scenarios incomplete or
out of date – take no account of climate change or urbanization
- Exposures not known –eg: linkages between critical assets.
§ Define risk identification and management group that embraces other agencies and relevant organizations.
§ Create annual review and update process to assimilate climate science and growth in urban area.
§ Identify exposures and vulnerabilities across city’s infrastructure.
§ Model strategies for mitigation.§ Confirm infrastructure is sized to deal with
anticipated risks (includes computing facilities).§ Identify critical assets and their interlinkages.
§ Ascertain role of ecosystem services in mitigating risk.
§ Communicate service expectations to the public.
§ Calculate potential economic losses, including business continuity losses, from a disaster. Factor into business case.
1. Strategy and vision
§ Agree between all stakeholders and peer organizations scenarios for use in all resilience planning.
Example actions for Essential 2
$
16
8. Financial
7. Community
6. Environment
5. Infrastructure and facilities
4. Information
3. Processes
2. Organization
How? Example of Resilience Agenda: Essential 7
1. Strategy and vision
Essential 7 (Increase Social and Cultural Resilience):- Lack of community
engagement: poor community awareness of risks to service and and required responses.
§ Engage with business and community organizations as communications channels, preparation partners…
§ Create community and business engagement plan with recurring actions
§ Identify key social and business groups in each area of the community
§ Identify languages required
§ (Delivery of messages – ongoing)§ Monitor impact and effectiveness
§ Create mobile app for people to send and receive disaster data, service alerts etc.
§ N/A.
§ N/A
§ Identify community development funds to support awareness program.
Example actions for Essential 7
$
When? In what sequence should action be taken?
§ The primary sequencing tool is the “impact vs difficulty” grid shown at right.
§ Each action identified in the Resilience Agenda just described is scored on each dimension, and then located as appropriate on the grid.
§ Adjustments may be made, for example for:– Critical path (“a” has to come first, to
enable “b” to proceed)– Cost and ROI (see next section - may also
be mapped onto grid).– Dealing with some overriding threat.– Availability of finance today or taking
advantage of time-limited financing.§ The grid will help with trading off CAPEX with
risk reduction.
Low direct impact on resilience - pursue only if foundational (needed for
other direct improvements)
Major or transformational change to resilience
levels
“As and when” – maybe do as add-ons to other
projects.
“Low hanging fruit” –quick, effective resilience
improvements
Low High
Low
High
ImpactD
iffic
ulty
(and
/or c
ost)
When? Example of possible scoring (can be adapted as needed)
4. Highly complex, multi-faceted, multi year program with multiple stakeholders and technology challenges.
3. Complex program with more than one stakeholder. May have risk.
2. Less complex program – will require careful management but appears readily feasible.
1. Relatively trivial to execute.
1. Minor impact. 2. More significant impact but in a narrow area of resilience.
3. Relatively significant impact over a wider area.
4. Transformational impact upon many areas of resilience.
Why? Scores from the workshop may then feed into the business case for making the required changes.
1. Organize for Resilience 32. Identify, Understand Current
and Future Risk10
3. Strengthen Financial Capacity
9
4. Resilient Development 25. Natural Buffers 16. Institutional Capacity 87. Social Resilience 78. Increase Infrastructure
Resilience4
9. Effective Disaster Response 610. Expedite Recovery 5
EssentialsRanking of Importance
1=Strongest..10=Weakest
Activity
Workshop Post-Workshop
Assemble quantitative and qualitative evidence from scorecard for each Essential
Confirm priorities based on workshop outputs and existing strategic plan (if available)
Validate total body of evidence/key drivers with stakeholders
Gather data from client for initial estimate of benefits (and resilience dividends) from action for each Essential
Validate core KPIs for each Essential
Adjust/amend KPIs to be measured/supplement with KPIs of importance to client
Estimate costs.
Consolidate information on drivers/strategic plan/benefits into business case deck/deliverable
Review final draft with client/stakeholders
Business Case FrameworkTiming
Scorecard Results
§ Detailed business case work is optional and is charged separately. If required, it will take place after each workshop.
Why? “Resilience dividends” may improve impact, or reduce difficulty, and so affect priorities.
§ “Outbound”: resilience investments that also yield other benefits, at lower marginal cost.
– Mainly increase benefits and impact from resilience actions.
§ Examples:– Flood zones, that provide leisure and
recreation space in dry weather.– Storm-sewer capacity upgrades, that also
replace obsolete or damaged piping.– Emergency management systems, that
also provide “dashboards” for day to day management of the City.
– Improved storm forecasting, that also enables system optimization in non-storm periods.
§ “Inbound”: other investments that also yield resilience benefits, at lower marginal cost.
– Mainly reduce apparent costs of resilience improvements.
§ Examples:– Energy or water system instrumentation
for day to day management purposes, that also enables more rapid damage appraisal.
– Underground parking garages, that are also designated as storm water cisterns.
– DER and microgrids that reduce loads on central facilities, and also help compartmentalize storm, flood or earthquake damage.
Contents
§ Resilience Plan Workshop Process
Resilience plan workshop
§ 2-3 day workshop:– “What?” uses UN Scorecard (short form version)1 and Public Health Addendum2, as described.– “How?” creates the Resilience Agenda, as described, using our predefined lists of possible actions as prompts
to aid discussion– “When?” uses the “impact vs difficulty” grid to illustrate the sequence and timescale of actions
§ Why? (detailed business case) may be executed separately.§ Scores allocated at the level each Essential (10 scores, not 100!)
– Essentials may have split-scores, where one aspect seems notably better or or worse than the rest of that Essential.
§ Deliverable is Resilience Plan – document with supporting graphics setting out workshop conclusions for each of the three sections
§ Optionally, a questionnaire may be issued in advance – this will improve the depth of discussion in the workshop itself.
1. https://www.unisdr.org/campaign/resilientcities/assets/toolkit/Scorecard/UNDRR_Disaster%20resilience%20%20scorecard%20for%20cities_Preliminary_English.pdf2. https://www.unisdr.org/campaign/resilientcities/assets/toolkit/documents/Disaster%20Resilience%20Scorecard_Public%20Health%20Addendum-consultative%20version%201.0.pdf
Resilience Plan workshop – typical agenda
Day 1 (“What?”)8.00 am Introduction from Mayor or senior city executive.8.15 am Introductions by participants8.30 am Purpose of the exercise, overview of resilience and overview of scorecard plus Public Health Addendum (PHA) 9.45 am Break11.00 am Plenary consideration of Essential 1 plus PHA Essential 1 – agree scores12.30 Lunch1.15 pm Breakout groups’ consideration of Essentials 2 & 3 plus PHA 2 & 3, and agree scores with report back to plenary**2.45 pm Break3.00 pm Breakout groups’ consideration of Essentials 4 & 5, plus PHA 4 & 5, and agree scores with report back to plenary**4.30 pm Plenary discussion of trends and issues so far.5.15 pm Close of Day 1Day 2 (“What?”)9.00 am Recap from Day 19.30 am Breakout groups’ consideration of Essentials 6 & 7, plus PHA 6 & 7, and agree scores with report back to plenary**11.00 am Break11.15 am Breakout groups’ consideration of Essential 8 (this is split as it is a very large essential) plus PHA 8, and agree scores, with report back to
plenary**12.45 pm Lunch1.30 pm Breakout groups’ consideration of Essentials 9 & 10, plus PHA 9 & 10, and agree scores with report back to plenary**3.00 pm Break3.15 pm Plenary discussion of trends and issues. Preliminary discussion of ideas regarding “How?”4.45 pm Close of Day 2
**Note – assumes two breakout groups
Resilience Plan workshop – typical agenda (2)
Day 3 (“How?” and “When?”)8.30 am Recap from Day 28.45 am Plenary consideration of actions required for Essential 1, and location on “impact vs difficulty” grid.9.30 am Break9.45 am Breakout groups’ consideration of actions required for Essentials 2 & 3, location on grid and report back to plenary10.45 am Breakout groups’ consideration of actions required for Essentials 4 & 5, location on grid and report back to plenary12.00 pm Lunch12.45 pm Breakout groups’ consideration of actions required for Essentials 6 & 7, location on grid and report back to plenary1.45 pm Breakout groups’ consideration of actions required for Essential 8, location on grid and report back to plenary2.45 pm Break3.00 pm Breakout groups’ consideration of actions required for Essentials 9 & 10, location on grid and report back to plenary4.00 pm Consolidation of grids, discussion, actions…5.15 pm Close of workshop.
§ Assumes format for where main scorecard and PHA are considered together. – They could each be considered separately: the structure would be very similar, although each session could
be shorter and the whole workshop condensed to 2 days.
Stakeholders who should be involved in the workshop
§ City Government – Mayor’s office, Office of Emergency Management, City Engineer, Fire, Police etc.
§ Local operations, maintenance, IT, planning and emergency management staff.
§ Energy, water, sanitation utility engineers and policy staff.
§ Health system(s) representatives.
§ Neighboring agencies and/or cities, where co-dependencies exist.
§ Community representatives.§ Transportation agency.§ Communications service provider .§ Chamber of Commerce, major employers.§ Federal, state representatives.§ … etc.
§ Attendees from each stakeholder entity will be expected to be sufficiently informed and sufficiently senior to speak authoritatively on behalf of that entity. In some cases this may require the CEO or equivalent; in other cases, more junior staff may meet the need.
§ Typically, we see ~20 participants in each workshop, with ~10 people per breakout group to keep these to a manageable size. More participants can however be accommodated with adjustments for additional breakout groups – but this will take longer..
What is needed for a workshop to succeed?
§ Visible senior executive sponsorship § Attendance by key operational staff (see previous slide), for the full 3 days§ Attendance by key external stakeholders (those in italics on the previous slide), for the full 3 days:
– (In the absence of this, workshops will note questions and issues that arise for the external stakeholders).§ Meeting room and one or more breakout rooms, depending on the size of the total group. § Projection facilities§ Flip charts and pens§ Catering
