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Resilience Planning & Adaptation On California’s Outer Coast Charles Lester Ocean & Coastal Policy Center Marine Science Institute, UCSB December 4, 2019 Coastal Resilience in the West: Scientific & Policy Innovations Strengthening Communities and the Environment C. Lester, EESI Wash. DC 12.04.2019 1

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Page 1: Resilience Planning & Adaptation · SB 5: Local-State Sustainable Investment Incentive Program. PROP 68 -- California Drought, Water, Parks, Climate, Coastal Protection, and Outdoor

Resilience Planning & AdaptationOn California’s Outer Coast

Charles LesterOcean & Coastal Policy CenterMarine Science Institute, UCSBDecember 4, 2019

Coastal Resilience in the West: Scientific & Policy InnovationsStrengthening Communities and the Environment

C. Lester, EESI Wash. DC 12.04.2019 1

Page 2: Resilience Planning & Adaptation · SB 5: Local-State Sustainable Investment Incentive Program. PROP 68 -- California Drought, Water, Parks, Climate, Coastal Protection, and Outdoor

California’s Coastal Management Program

• San Francisco Bay Conservation and Development Commission (BCDC)

• California Coastal Commission (Outer Coast)

• State Coastal Conservancy

C. Lester, EESI Wash. DC 12.04.2019 2

Page 3: Resilience Planning & Adaptation · SB 5: Local-State Sustainable Investment Incentive Program. PROP 68 -- California Drought, Water, Parks, Climate, Coastal Protection, and Outdoor

The Adaptation Challenge is great: Most urban footprints established before modern CZM

Santa Cruz Co, Opal Cliffs -- 1943 Santa Cruz Co, Opal Cliffs -- 1967

C. Lester, EESI Wash. DC 12.04.20193

Source: http://library.ucsc.edu/maps/view-digitized-aerial-flight-photos-by-county

Page 4: Resilience Planning & Adaptation · SB 5: Local-State Sustainable Investment Incentive Program. PROP 68 -- California Drought, Water, Parks, Climate, Coastal Protection, and Outdoor

C. Lester, EESI Wash. DC 12.04.2019 4

Carpinteria

Imperial Beach

Del Mar

Stinson Beach

Alamitos Peninsula

Page 5: Resilience Planning & Adaptation · SB 5: Local-State Sustainable Investment Incentive Program. PROP 68 -- California Drought, Water, Parks, Climate, Coastal Protection, and Outdoor

Malibu, Surfrider Beach

C. Lester, EESI Wash. DC 12.04.20195

The Coastal Squeeze is Real

Page 6: Resilience Planning & Adaptation · SB 5: Local-State Sustainable Investment Incentive Program. PROP 68 -- California Drought, Water, Parks, Climate, Coastal Protection, and Outdoor

https://thepacificaquarry.com/history/

Pacifica, CA – 1940s

Page 7: Resilience Planning & Adaptation · SB 5: Local-State Sustainable Investment Incentive Program. PROP 68 -- California Drought, Water, Parks, Climate, Coastal Protection, and Outdoor

C. Lester, EESI Wash. DC 12.04.2019 7

Pacifica, CA – 2019

Page 8: Resilience Planning & Adaptation · SB 5: Local-State Sustainable Investment Incentive Program. PROP 68 -- California Drought, Water, Parks, Climate, Coastal Protection, and Outdoor

C. Lester, EESI Wash. DC 12.04.2019 8

Pacifica, CA – 2019

Page 9: Resilience Planning & Adaptation · SB 5: Local-State Sustainable Investment Incentive Program. PROP 68 -- California Drought, Water, Parks, Climate, Coastal Protection, and Outdoor

Coastal Act Hazards Management

PRC 30253 requires that new development minimize risks to life and property and not require the construction of shoreline protective structures.

PRC 30235 requires the Commission to approve shoreline structures for endangered existing development if it is the least environmentally-damaging, feasible alternative and sand supply impacts are mitigated.

➔76 local coastal government must complete a Local Coastal Program (LCP) to implement the Coastal Act.

C. Lester, EESI Wash. DC 12.04.2019 9

Page 10: Resilience Planning & Adaptation · SB 5: Local-State Sustainable Investment Incentive Program. PROP 68 -- California Drought, Water, Parks, Climate, Coastal Protection, and Outdoor

Change can be Sudden and Episodic -- Pacifica

C. Lester, EESI Wash. DC 12.04.2019 10

Page 11: Resilience Planning & Adaptation · SB 5: Local-State Sustainable Investment Incentive Program. PROP 68 -- California Drought, Water, Parks, Climate, Coastal Protection, and Outdoor

C. Lester, EESI Wash. DC 12.04.2019 11

Change can be Sudden and Episodic -- Pacifica

Page 12: Resilience Planning & Adaptation · SB 5: Local-State Sustainable Investment Incentive Program. PROP 68 -- California Drought, Water, Parks, Climate, Coastal Protection, and Outdoor

C. Lester, EESI Wash. DC 12.04.2019 12

Required Hazard Setbacks

Pre-Coastal Act

Required Setback

Page 13: Resilience Planning & Adaptation · SB 5: Local-State Sustainable Investment Incentive Program. PROP 68 -- California Drought, Water, Parks, Climate, Coastal Protection, and Outdoor

1989

2010

C. Lester, EESI Wash. DC 12.04.2019 13

Inevitable Seawalls – Solana Beach

Page 14: Resilience Planning & Adaptation · SB 5: Local-State Sustainable Investment Incentive Program. PROP 68 -- California Drought, Water, Parks, Climate, Coastal Protection, and Outdoor

A private taking of the public beach?

Internalizing Externalities

➔ $5.2 million mitigation fee

C. Lester, EESI Wash. DC 12.04.2019 14

Ocean Harbor House, Monterey

Page 15: Resilience Planning & Adaptation · SB 5: Local-State Sustainable Investment Incentive Program. PROP 68 -- California Drought, Water, Parks, Climate, Coastal Protection, and Outdoor

2015C. Lester, EESI Wash. DC 12.04.2019 15

Surfer’s Point, Ventura

62

Page 16: Resilience Planning & Adaptation · SB 5: Local-State Sustainable Investment Incentive Program. PROP 68 -- California Drought, Water, Parks, Climate, Coastal Protection, and Outdoor

2003

2015

Stinson Beach HMB Ritz Carlton

Fort Ord

C. Lester, EESI Wash. DC 12.04.201916

Page 17: Resilience Planning & Adaptation · SB 5: Local-State Sustainable Investment Incentive Program. PROP 68 -- California Drought, Water, Parks, Climate, Coastal Protection, and Outdoor

17

Projected Shoreline at Goleta Beach – SB County:

2047 (52 cm slr), 2075 (118 cm slr), 2100 (200 cm slr)C. Lester, EESI Wash. DC 12.04.2019

Page 18: Resilience Planning & Adaptation · SB 5: Local-State Sustainable Investment Incentive Program. PROP 68 -- California Drought, Water, Parks, Climate, Coastal Protection, and Outdoor

C. Lester, EESI Wash. DC 12.04.2019 18

Marin CountyDel Mar

Beach Widths Going to Zero

Page 19: Resilience Planning & Adaptation · SB 5: Local-State Sustainable Investment Incentive Program. PROP 68 -- California Drought, Water, Parks, Climate, Coastal Protection, and Outdoor

C. Lester, EESI Wash. DC 12.04.201919

Moss Beach Loss

1972

Today

Page 20: Resilience Planning & Adaptation · SB 5: Local-State Sustainable Investment Incentive Program. PROP 68 -- California Drought, Water, Parks, Climate, Coastal Protection, and Outdoor

C. Lester, EESI Wash. DC 12.04.201920

Accommodating the Public Trust

Page 21: Resilience Planning & Adaptation · SB 5: Local-State Sustainable Investment Incentive Program. PROP 68 -- California Drought, Water, Parks, Climate, Coastal Protection, and Outdoor

Future vistas along the beach?

C. Lester, EESI Wash. DC 12.04.2019 21

Page 22: Resilience Planning & Adaptation · SB 5: Local-State Sustainable Investment Incentive Program. PROP 68 -- California Drought, Water, Parks, Climate, Coastal Protection, and Outdoor

C. Lester, EESI Wash. DC 12.04.2019 22

What to do about future privateencroachments on public land?

Page 23: Resilience Planning & Adaptation · SB 5: Local-State Sustainable Investment Incentive Program. PROP 68 -- California Drought, Water, Parks, Climate, Coastal Protection, and Outdoor

Gleason’s Beach, Sonoma County

C. Lester, EESI Wash. DC 12.04.2019 23

Adaptation Strategy: Unplanned Retreat?

Page 24: Resilience Planning & Adaptation · SB 5: Local-State Sustainable Investment Incentive Program. PROP 68 -- California Drought, Water, Parks, Climate, Coastal Protection, and Outdoor

X X X

C. Lester, EESI Wash. DC 12.04.2019 24

Pacifica – Demo on the Esplanade

Page 25: Resilience Planning & Adaptation · SB 5: Local-State Sustainable Investment Incentive Program. PROP 68 -- California Drought, Water, Parks, Climate, Coastal Protection, and Outdoor

C. Lester, EESI Wash. DC 12.04.201925

Pacifica: Unplanned Retreat

Page 26: Resilience Planning & Adaptation · SB 5: Local-State Sustainable Investment Incentive Program. PROP 68 -- California Drought, Water, Parks, Climate, Coastal Protection, and Outdoor

C. Lester, EESI Wash. DC 12.04.2019 26

Defend, Elevate, Replenish, Retreat?

Page 27: Resilience Planning & Adaptation · SB 5: Local-State Sustainable Investment Incentive Program. PROP 68 -- California Drought, Water, Parks, Climate, Coastal Protection, and Outdoor

C. Lester, EESI Wash. DC 12.04.201927

Defend, Elevate, Replenish, Retreat?

Page 28: Resilience Planning & Adaptation · SB 5: Local-State Sustainable Investment Incentive Program. PROP 68 -- California Drought, Water, Parks, Climate, Coastal Protection, and Outdoor

Average: $10 million+

Zillow est. 12/9/2018

$120 million in Oak Park, Staten Island = 300 properties . . .

At Broad Beach, $120 million = 12 homes on average

The Cost of Retreat

Page 29: Resilience Planning & Adaptation · SB 5: Local-State Sustainable Investment Incentive Program. PROP 68 -- California Drought, Water, Parks, Climate, Coastal Protection, and Outdoor

C. Lester, EESI Wash. DC 12.04.201929

Solana Beach Sand Replenishment

Page 30: Resilience Planning & Adaptation · SB 5: Local-State Sustainable Investment Incentive Program. PROP 68 -- California Drought, Water, Parks, Climate, Coastal Protection, and Outdoor

C. Lester, EESI Wash. DC 12.04.2019 30

Page 31: Resilience Planning & Adaptation · SB 5: Local-State Sustainable Investment Incentive Program. PROP 68 -- California Drought, Water, Parks, Climate, Coastal Protection, and Outdoor

Broad Beach GHAD:

“DEDICATED TO RESTORING AND PROTECTING MALIBU’S HISTORIC BROAD BEACH”

When will the public beach be made whole?

C. Lester, EESI Wash. DC 12.04.201931

Page 32: Resilience Planning & Adaptation · SB 5: Local-State Sustainable Investment Incentive Program. PROP 68 -- California Drought, Water, Parks, Climate, Coastal Protection, and Outdoor

C. Lester, EESI Wash. DC 12.04.2019 32

Environmental Justice Impacts of Eroding Beaches

Page 33: Resilience Planning & Adaptation · SB 5: Local-State Sustainable Investment Incentive Program. PROP 68 -- California Drought, Water, Parks, Climate, Coastal Protection, and Outdoor

C. Lester, EESI Wash. DC 12.04.201933

SB 5: Local-State Sustainable Investment Incentive Program

PROP 68 -- California Drought, Water, Parks, Climate, Coastal Protection, and Outdoor Access For All Act of 2018.

CHAPTER 10. Climate Preparedness, Habitat

Resiliency, Resource Enhancement, and

Innovation

80130. The sum of four hundred forty-three million dollars ($443,000,000) shall be available, upon appropriation by the Legislature, as competitive grants for projects that plan, develop, and implement climate adaptation and resiliency projects.

(E) Protecting communities dealing with the effects of sea level rise, which is one of the most significant threats of climate change, including the construction, repair, replacement, and maintenance infrastructure related to protecting communities from sea level rise.

Page 34: Resilience Planning & Adaptation · SB 5: Local-State Sustainable Investment Incentive Program. PROP 68 -- California Drought, Water, Parks, Climate, Coastal Protection, and Outdoor

C. Lester, EESI Wash. DC 12.04.2019 34

Surfer’s Point, Ventura

Page 35: Resilience Planning & Adaptation · SB 5: Local-State Sustainable Investment Incentive Program. PROP 68 -- California Drought, Water, Parks, Climate, Coastal Protection, and Outdoor

35

Judge, J., Newkirk, S., Leo, K., Heady, W., Hayden, M., Veloz, S., Cheng, T., Battalio, B., Ursell, T., and Small, M. 2017. Case Studies of Natural Shoreline Infrastructure in Coastal California: A Component of Identification of Natural Infrastructure Options for Adapting to Sea Level Rise (California’s Fourth Climate Change Assessment). The Nature Conservancy, Arlington, VA. 38 pp.

C. Lester, EESI Wash. DC 12.04.2019

Surfer’s Point, Ventura

Page 36: Resilience Planning & Adaptation · SB 5: Local-State Sustainable Investment Incentive Program. PROP 68 -- California Drought, Water, Parks, Climate, Coastal Protection, and Outdoor

C. Lester, EESI Wash. DC 12.04.201936

Page 37: Resilience Planning & Adaptation · SB 5: Local-State Sustainable Investment Incentive Program. PROP 68 -- California Drought, Water, Parks, Climate, Coastal Protection, and Outdoor

C. Lester, EESI Wash. DC 12.04.201937

❖ Assumption of Risk❖ No Future Seawall❖ Removal Required❖ Foundation Design

Two Decades of Rolling Easements

Page 38: Resilience Planning & Adaptation · SB 5: Local-State Sustainable Investment Incentive Program. PROP 68 -- California Drought, Water, Parks, Climate, Coastal Protection, and Outdoor

Isla Vista Managed Retreat

C. Lester, EESI Wash. DC 12.04.2019 38

1972 1989

2004 2013

Page 39: Resilience Planning & Adaptation · SB 5: Local-State Sustainable Investment Incentive Program. PROP 68 -- California Drought, Water, Parks, Climate, Coastal Protection, and Outdoor

C. Lester, EESI Wash. DC 12.04.201939

Resilience :Stilwell Hall, Fort Ord, 2003

Page 40: Resilience Planning & Adaptation · SB 5: Local-State Sustainable Investment Incentive Program. PROP 68 -- California Drought, Water, Parks, Climate, Coastal Protection, and Outdoor

C. Lester, EESI Wash. DC 12.04.2019 40

Resilience: Fort Ord Dunes State Park, 2013

Page 41: Resilience Planning & Adaptation · SB 5: Local-State Sustainable Investment Incentive Program. PROP 68 -- California Drought, Water, Parks, Climate, Coastal Protection, and Outdoor

C. Lester, EESI Wash. DC 12.04.2019 41

Planned Retreat of Infrastructure: Relocation of the Morro Bay Wastewater Treatment Plant to Water Reclamation Facility site.

Page 42: Resilience Planning & Adaptation · SB 5: Local-State Sustainable Investment Incentive Program. PROP 68 -- California Drought, Water, Parks, Climate, Coastal Protection, and Outdoor

C. Lester, EESI Wash. DC 12.04.2019 42

Regulating Realignment of Highway One – Piedras Blancas

Emergency Revetment - 1997

Realignment, 300-500 ft. inland -- 2017

Restored Shoreline

New Alignment

Page 43: Resilience Planning & Adaptation · SB 5: Local-State Sustainable Investment Incentive Program. PROP 68 -- California Drought, Water, Parks, Climate, Coastal Protection, and Outdoor

C. Lester, EESI Wash. DC 12.04.2019 43

Monterey – Window on the Bay

Page 44: Resilience Planning & Adaptation · SB 5: Local-State Sustainable Investment Incentive Program. PROP 68 -- California Drought, Water, Parks, Climate, Coastal Protection, and Outdoor

C. Lester, EESI Wash. DC 12.04.2019 44

Monterey – Window on the Bay

Page 45: Resilience Planning & Adaptation · SB 5: Local-State Sustainable Investment Incentive Program. PROP 68 -- California Drought, Water, Parks, Climate, Coastal Protection, and Outdoor

C. Lester, EESI Wash. DC 12.04.201945

Page 46: Resilience Planning & Adaptation · SB 5: Local-State Sustainable Investment Incentive Program. PROP 68 -- California Drought, Water, Parks, Climate, Coastal Protection, and Outdoor

C. Lester, EESI Wash. DC 12.04.2019 46

Planned & Managed Retreat begins at the Half Moon Bay Ritz Carlton…

Page 47: Resilience Planning & Adaptation · SB 5: Local-State Sustainable Investment Incentive Program. PROP 68 -- California Drought, Water, Parks, Climate, Coastal Protection, and Outdoor

C. Lester, EESI Wash. DC 12.04.201947

✓Context Matters -- no single strategy is right

✓Planning takes time and investment, and meaningful engagement

✓Phased implementation with monitoring, thresholds for action

✓Combination of strategies to structure incentives and provide options

✓Fed, state, local partnerships are essential

✓Social cost benefit assessment of alternatives

✓Significant $$ is needed for adaptation

✓Managing change over decades in a dynamic, complex system

✓Resilience is balance of cost effective risk reduction, environmental

protection & stewardship and social equity.

Concluding Observations

Page 48: Resilience Planning & Adaptation · SB 5: Local-State Sustainable Investment Incentive Program. PROP 68 -- California Drought, Water, Parks, Climate, Coastal Protection, and Outdoor

C. Lester, EESI Wash. DC 12.04.201948

Thank you to the California Coastal Records Projecthttps://www.californiacoastline.org/

Thank You!