residential market viewpoints pan india q2 2019 2019... · residential market viewpoints pan india...

Residential Market Viewpoints

PAN India Q2 2019

anarock.com

New Launch Supply

SalesUnsold Inventory

AveragePrice


PAN India Q2 2019

NEW LAUNCH SUPPLY

69,005Units

-2%Quarterly Change

• Launches across the top 7 cities decreased

marginally by 2% over the previous quarter.

This decline was mainly due to the ongoing

liquidity crisis and also as the general

elections cast an uncertainty, which made

the developers go on a wait-and-watch

mode.

• While launches in Kolkata more than

doubled in Q2 2019 compared to the

previous quarter primarily due to a low base,

cities like NCR, Chennai and Bengaluru also

recorded a quarterly increase.

• Affordable housing segment accounted for

34% of the total supply. This is significantly less

than the last quarter where the share was

44%. This segment is also being tested in the

market, however, with the recent increase in

tax deduction limit, affordable housing is

likely to make a comeback.

• Sales decreased by 13% over the previous

quarter as every city underwent contraction.

However, the sales are approximately 12%

higher than the same period last year.

• Unsold inventory remained stable compared

to the previous quarter owing to a parity in

supply addition and sales during the current

quarter.

Note: PAN India refers to Top 7 cities of India only

Residential SnapshotKey Highlights

SALES

68,600Units

-13%Quarterly Change

UNSOLD INVENTORY

6,65,558Units

NilQuarterly Change

2


PAN India Q2 2019

Note: Average Price in INR/sf as quoted on BUA Map not to scale, for representation purposes only.

13,570

23,045

10,700

11.010

3,885

4,155

2,640

12,640

21,360

10,490

13,150

2,990

4,430

3,540

1,81,927

2,24,008

92,791

64,677

31,473

25,127

45,555

4,565

10,610

5,494

4,960

4,935

4,187

4,375

NCR

MMR

Pune

Bengaluru

Chennai

Hyderabad

Kolkata

New Launch

Units

Sold

Units

Unsold

Inventory

Average Price

(INR/sf)

TOP 7 Cities

NCR

MMR

Pune

Bengaluru Chennai

Hyderabad

Kolkata

3


PAN India Q2 2019

4

N E W L A U N C H S U P P L Y T R E N D


PAN India Q2 2019

69,005

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

1,00,000

1,20,000

1,40,000

1,60,000

Q1

2015

Q2

2015

Q3

2015

Q4

2015

Q1

2016

Q2

2016

Q3

2016

Q4

2016

Q1

2017

Q2

2017

Q3

2017

Q4

2017

Q1

2018

Q2

2018

Q3

2018

Q4

2018

Q1

2019

Q2

2019

No

. o

f U

nits

Q2 2019 recorded a marginal declinein supply over the previous quarter, nonetheless it is

better than scenario in the past two years.

New Launch Supply Trend

5


PAN India Q2 2019

City Q2 2018 Q1 2019 Q2 2019Quarterly

Change

Annual

Change

NCR 8,470 8,030 13,570 69.0% 60.2%

MMR 14,010 26,850 23,045 -14.2% 64.5%

Bengaluru 8,780 9,060 11,010 21.4% 25.4%

Pune 7,080 17,520 10,700 -38.9% 51.1%

Hyderabad 5,530 4,850 4,155 -14.2% -24.8%

Chennai 4,210 3,170 3,885 22.7% -7.6%

Kolkata 2,540 1,000 2,640 164.0% 3.9%

MMR continued to top the list and accounted for 33%of total supply in Q2 2019, followed by NCR,

Bengaluru & Pune.


PAN India

6


PAN India Q2 2019

Affordable Housing continued its dominanceand accounted for 34% of total new launch supply

in Q2 2019.


By Budget Segmentation

7

38%

44%39%

35% 33%

44% 42%38%

44%

34%

46% 32%

33%

30%

41%

31% 33% 40%32%

32%

10%

14%19%

20%

20%15% 16%

13% 15%

20%

3%7% 6%

12%

4%

4%5% 6% 5%

9%

3% 3% 3% 3% 2%6% 4% 3% 4% 5%

Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2017 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2018 Q1 2019 Q2 2019

< INR 40 Lakh INR 40 Lakh - INR 80 Lakh INR 80 Lakh - 1.5 Cr INR 1.5 Cr - 2.5 Cr > INR 2.5 Cr


PAN India Q2 2019

Hyderabad is the only city which has witnessed a

lowest supply share in affordable segment

accounting to 2%, previously 28% (Q1 2019)

showcasing a drastic drop of supply in the <INR 40

Lakh segment.

City-wise New Launch Supply Trend

By Budget Segmentation (Q2 2019)

8

Hyderabad is the only city which has witnessed a low supply share in affordable segment accounting to 2%, previously 28% (Q1 2019), indicating a drastic drop of

supply in sub-INR 40 Lakh segment.

25%

31%

2%

34%37%

45%

38%

40%

44%

27%

34%

47%

23%

24%

26%

17%

44%

30%

7%

14%21%

9% 5%

14%

2%

6%

12% 10%

3%

13%

3%6% 7%

Bengaluru Chennai Hyderabad Kolkata Pune NCR MMR

< INR 40 Lakh INR 40 Lakh - INR 80 Lakh INR 80 Lakh - 1.5 Cr

INR 1.5 Cr - 2.5 Cr > INR 2.5 Cr


PAN India Q2 2019

9

S A L E S T R E N D


PAN India Q2 2019

Sales Trend

PAN India

PAN India sales declined by 13% comparedto Q1 2019 but are 12% higher than Q2 2018.

10

68,600

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

1,00,000

Q1

2015

Q2

2015

Q3

2015

Q4

2015

Q1

2016

Q2

2016

Q3

2016

Q4

2016

Q1

2017

Q2

2017

Q3

2017

Q4

2017

Q1

2018

Q2

2018

Q3

2018

Q4

2018

Q1

2019

Q2

2019


PAN India Q2 2019


Change

Annual

Change

NCR 11,140 13,740 12,640 (8.0%) 13.5%

MMR 15,740 24,005 21,360 (11.0%) 35.7%

Bengaluru 14,790 15,580 13,150 (15.6%) (11.1%)

Pune 8,370 12,340 10,490 (15.0%) 25.3%

Hyderabad 4,740 5,400 4,430 (18.0%) (6.5%)

Chennai 2,710 3,435 2,990 (12.8%) 10.3%

Kolkata 4,030 4,020 3,540 (11.9%) (12.2%)

All cities recorded a drop in salesover the previous quarter.

Sales Trend

City-wise

11


PAN India Q2 2019

U N S O L D I N VE N T O R Y T R E N D

12


PAN India Q2 2019

Unsold Inventory Trend

PAN India

Unsold inventory remained stable compared to the previous quarter as new launches and sales were

at par in Q2 2019.

13

6,65,558

6,00,000

6,50,000

7,00,000

7,50,000

8,00,000

8,50,000

Q1

2015

Q2

2015

Q3

2015

Q4

2015

Q1

2016

Q2

2016

Q3

2016

Q4

2016

Q1

2017

Q2

2017

Q3

2017

Q4

2017

Q1

2018

Q2

2018

Q3

2018

Q4

2018

Q1

2019

Q2

2019


PAN India Q2 2019


Change

Annual

Change

NCR 1,97,810 1,80,999 1,81,927 0.5% (8.0%)

MMR 2,21,460 2,22,327 2,24,008 0.8% 1.1%

Bengaluru 85,620 66,819 64,677 (3.2%) (24.4%)

Pune 92,030 92,585 92,791 0.2% 0.8%

Hyderabad 27,710 25,401 25,127 (1.1%) (9.3%)

Chennai 28,300 30,575 31,473 2.9% 11.2%

Kolkata 49,560 46,452 45,555 (1.9%) (8.0%)

Every city barring Bengaluru, Hyderabad and Kolkatahave seen a marginal rise in unsold inventory over the

previous quarter.

Unsold Inventory Trend

City-wise

14


PAN India Q2 2019

City-wise Unsold Inventory Trend

By Budget Segmentation (Q2 2019)

Bengaluru and Hyderabad have the lowest unsold inventory in the affordable segment.

15

19%

34%

19%

62%

49%

37%

31%

46%

39%

39%

23%

36%

38%

24%

23%

18%

26%

10% 10%

15%

23%

6%5%

9%

2% 3%

6%

11%

6% 4%7%

3% 2% 4%

11%

Bengaluru Chennai Hyderabad Kolkata Pune NCR MMR

< INR 40 Lakh INR 40 Lakh - INR 80 Lakh INR 80 Lakh - 1.5 Cr INR 1.5 Cr - 2.5 Cr > INR 2.5 Cr


PAN India Q2 2019

City

Avg. Base

Selling

Price

(INR/sf)

Quarterly

Change

Annual

Change

Inventory

Over-

hang

(months)

Quarterly

Change

Annual

Change

NCR 4,565 Nil 0.3% 44 (2.2%) (27.9%)

MMR 10,610 0.6% 0.9% 34 (2.9%) (32.0%)

Bengaluru 4,960 0.2% 1.2% 15 Nil (34.8%)

Pune 5,494 0.3% 0.5% 27 (3.6%) (30.8%)

Hyderabad 4,187 0.4% 1.4% 16 6.7% (20.0%)

Chennai 4,935 0.3% Nil 30 Nil Nil

Kolkata 4,375 Nil (1.7%) 35 Nil (22.2%)

Despite a significant change in the inventory overhang, prices across NCR, MMR, Bengaluru and Hyderabad

have remained stable.

Capital Values & Inventory Overhang

16


PAN India Q2 2019

Note: Circle size represents Unsold Inventory as of Q2 2019.

Inventory Overhang vs

New Launch Supply vs Unsold Inventory

Bengaluru continues to be the most active market,while Hyderabad has the least unsold inventory.

17

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

No

. o

f U

nits

Inventory Overhang in Months

NCR MMR Bengaluru Pune Hyderabad Chennai Kolkata


PAN India Q2 2019

Sales and launches have declined in the last

quarter as the nation was reeling under the

liquidity crisis and was looking towards the results

of the elections. A decisive mandate and a

stable government are now capable of steering

the economy with a clear direction enabling all

sectors to chart a new growth path.

Inventory overhang in most cities is below 36

months which is a good indicator and may lead

to an improvement in new launches during the

rest of the year. Following the announcements in

the union budget, the affordable housing

segment is likely to drive the demand and we

anticipate majority of the developers to further

focus on this segment.

Despite significant reduction in unsold inventory

over a period of time, we see prices have

remained stable. This may lead to an increase in

sales in the coming quarters as the fence sitters

may now spring into action.

ANAROCK Research opines that the right sized

product offering developed at a great location

and by a financially capable developer will

surely perform better even in the current market

conditions.

5 Key Takeaways

1. Launches may increase in the

second half of 2019 amidst

clear political stability and

commencement of festive

season.

2. Sales are likely to be in tandem

with the launches as the buyers

will be selecting the best

options.

3. The Government's focus on

affordable housing is expected

to further provide an impetus to

this segment.

4. Prices are likely to remain

range-bound, but appreciate

marginally in the newly

launched projects.

5. Consolidation of developers

and real estate consultants will

continue for some time now.

18


PAN India Q2 2019

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About ANAROCK

ANAROCK is India’s leading independent real estate services company with a presence across

India and the Middle East. The Chairman, Mr. Anuj Puri, is a highly respected industry veteran and

India's most prominent real estate thought leader.

The Company has diversified interests across the real estate lifecycle and deploys its proprietary

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Our assurance of consistent ethical dealing with clients and partners reflects our motto - Values

Over Value.

Please visit www.anarock.com

For research services, please contact:

Prashant Thakur

Director & Head of Research

[email protected]

ANAROCK Property Consultants Pvt. Ltd

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