residential and commercial market...
TRANSCRIPT
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REALTORQUEST.CA #REALTORQUESTLEARN. ENGAGE. NETWORK. GROW.
RESIDENTIAL AND COMMERCIAL MARKET UPDATE
Presented by:Jason Mercer, Matthew Boukall, and Ray Wong
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REALTORQUEST.CA #REALTORQUESTLEARN. ENGAGE. NETWORK. GROW.
MARKET UPDATE & CONSUMER INTENTIONS
GTA MARKET OUTLOOK AND CONSUMER INTENTIONS
JASON MERCERChief Market Analyst and Director of Service Channels,
Toronto Real Estate Board
SEAN SIMPSONVice President, Ipsos Public Affairs
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$0 $10,000 $20,000 $30,000 $40,000 $50,000 $60,000 $70,000
Econ
omic
Impa
ct
Source: Altus Group
Economic Impact of Each GTA Home Sale
$6.33$6.91
$7.72
$6.30
$5.28
$0
$1
$2
$3
$4
$5
$6
$7
$8
$9
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Billi
ons
Source: Altus Group; TREB Calculations
Estimated Average Spin-Off Expenditure Associated with TREB MLS® Sales
REALTORS’® Contribution to the Economy is Huge
142,000Related Jobs
$2.9 BillionIn Taxes
Professional Services: $33.6K
Renovations:$19.6K
Furniture/Appliances:$8.6K
General Household:$4.1K
Moving:$2.4K
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58,095
67,467
74,533
78,675
83,213
83,831
82,947
92,856 74,502
86,979
85,862
89,109
85,506
87,049
92,781
101,213
113,040 92,264 77,341
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
Source: Toronto Real Estate Board
Annual TREB MLS® Sales
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Guideline B-20 now requires the minimum qualifying rate for uninsured mortgages to be the greater of the five-year benchmark rate published by the Bank of Canada or the contractual mortgage rate +2%.
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Guideline B-20 now requires the minimum qualifying rate for uninsured mortgages to be the greater of the five-year benchmark rate published by the Bank of Canada or the contractual mortgage rate +2%.
Insured, 27%
Uninsured, 73%
2017 Share of Canadian Mortgage Funds Advanced - Uninsured vs. Insured
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0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
Detached Semi-Detached Townhouse Condo Apartment
Source: Toronto Real Estate Board; Statistics Canada
OSFI Qualification vs. Average Mortgage Payment
Average Monthly Payment (Discounted Rate)
Average Monthly Payment (OSFI Qualifying Rate)
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14,089
14,483
19,653
17,230
18,993
17,849
19,529
19,938
17,233 12,622
22,047
19,246
20,624
17,381
17,851
19,498
22,482
25,062
16,323
16,129
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
Source: Toronto Real Estate Board
Q1 TREB MLS® Sales
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5,652
6,598
8,529 7,252
8,971
8,633
8,154
9,218
8,520
7,900
10,579 8,777
10,020
9,537
9,660
11,254
12,016
11,463
7,744
9,042
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
Source: Toronto Real Estate Board
April TREB MLS® Sales
+17% Y/Y
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5
6
7
8
9
10
11Pe
r Cen
t (Se
ason
ally
Adj
uste
d)
Source: Statistics Canada
Toronto CMA Unemployment RateUnemployment remains well-below average, but has risen in response to slower growth.
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0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
Source: Statistics Canada
GTA Family Income
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89,849
94,839
94,885
102,501
94,778
100,393
94,641
81,348 61,150
96,000
106,147
140,231
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
2006 /2007
2007 /2008
2008 /2009
2009 /2010
2010 /2011
2011 /2012
2012 /2013
2013 /2014
2014 /2015
2015 /2016
2016 /2017
2017 /2018
Source: Statistics Canada; Year Ending June 30
Net Annual Growth in GTA Population
Immigration played a large role in the increase.
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0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
Source: Statistics Canada
Immigration into Ontario/GTAHighest Level in Over a Decade
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0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
Source: Statistics Canada
Immigration into Ontario/GTAHighest Level in Over a Decade
GTA has accounted for +/-75-80% of Immigration to Ontario
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© 2018 Ipsos 15
Likelihood To Purchase A Home
1. How likely are you to purchase a home in which to live over the next year?Base: All respondents. May 2019 (n=1502); 416 (n=736), 905 (n=766). Nov 2018 (n=4060); 416 (n=1366), 905 (n=2694). Nov 2017 (n=3974); 416 (n=1645), 905 (n=2329). May 2017 (n=3981); 416 (n=1649), 905 (n=2332). Dec (n=3,774); 416 (n=1,475), 905 (n=2,299). Nov 2015 (n=3451); 416 (n=1518), 905 (n=1933).
30% 28% 26%29% 31%
12% 10% 10% 10% 11%
Nov 2015 Nov 2016 Nov 2017 Nov 2018 May 2019
TOTAL GTA
[NET]
LIKELY(Very / Somewhat)
VERY LIKELY
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© 2018 Ipsos 16
Likelihood To Purchase A Home – By Region
1. How likely are you to purchase a home in which to live over the next year?Base: All respondents. May 2019 (n=1502); 416 (n=736), 905 (n=766). Nov 2018 (n=4060); 416 (n=1366), 905 (n=2694). Nov 2017 (n=3974); 416 (n=1645), 905 (n=2329). May 2017 (n=3981); 416 (n=1649), 905 (n=2332). Dec (n=3,774); 416 (n=1,475), 905 (n=2,299). Nov 2015 (n=3451); 416 (n=1518), 905 (n=1933).
27%25% 25% 26%
30%
11%9% 9% 9% 10%
Nov2015
Nov2016
Nov2017
Nov2018
May2019
905 [NET]
LIKELY(Very / Somewhat)
VERY LIKELY
33%
32%28%
37%
31%
14% 12% 11%14%
11%
Nov2015
Nov2016
Nov2017
Nov2018
May2019
416
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© 2018 Ipsos 17
Incidence of First-Time Home Buyers
3. Will you be a first-time home buyer?Base: Likely To Purchase. May 2019 (n=455); 416 (n=227), 905 (n=228). Nov 2018 (n=1,001); 416 (n=462), 905 (n=539). Nov 2017 (n=1,000); 416 (n=472), 905 (n=528). May 2017 (n=1376); 416 (n=781), 905 (n=595). Dec 2016 (n=1,001); 416 (n=455), 905 (n=546). Nov 2015 (n=1000); 416 (n=490); 905 (n=510), June 2015 (n=768); 416 (n=387), 905 (n=381).
49% 53%41% 38%
46%
Nov 2015 Nov 2016 Nov 2017 Nov 2018 May 2019
TOTAL GTA
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© 2018 Ipsos 18
Incidence of First-Time Home Buyers – By Region
3. Will you be a first-time home buyer?Base: Likely To Purchase. May 2019 (n=455); 416 (n=227), 905 (n=228). Nov 2018 (n=1,001); 416 (n=462), 905 (n=539). Nov 2017 (n=1,000); 416 (n=472), 905 (n=528). May 2017 (n=1376); 416 (n=781), 905 (n=595). Dec 2016 (n=1,001); 416 (n=455), 905 (n=546). Nov 2015 (n=1000); 416 (n=490); 905 (n=510), June 2015 (n=768); 416 (n=387), 905 (n=381).
43% 44%37%
32%42%
Nov 2015 Nov 2016 Nov 2017 Nov 2018 May 2019
905
56%64%
46% 44%50%
Nov 2015 Nov 2016 Nov 2017 Nov 2018 May 2019
416
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© 2018 Ipsos 19
Not heard of program
Federal First-Time Homebuyer Incentive 18%
70%(T2B among first-
time buyers)
Increase First-Time Buyer RRSP Withdrawal Limit 19%
59%(T2B among first-
time buyers)
Provincial and Municipal Land Transfer Taxes 12% 32%
(B2B)
OFSI Mortgage Stress Test 21% 23%(B2B)
12%
8%
3%
3%
33%
25%
10%
10%
46%
53%
55%
64%
3%
8%
21%
13%
5%
6%
10%
9%
Government Programs/Policies to Incentivize Buying a Home
11. Will the following government programs/policies make you more or less likely to purchase a home over the next 12 months?Base: All respondents (n=1502); 416 (n=661), 905 (n=841). Where applicable, some answer choices were not shown to home owners.
Much more likely More likely No impact Less likely Much less likely
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58,095
67,467
74,533
78,675
83,213
83,831
82,947
92,856 74,502
86,979
85,862
89,109
85,506
87,049
92,781
101,213
113,040 92,264 77,341
86,000
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
(F)
Source: Toronto Real Estate Board
Annual TREB MLS® Sales Forecast
+11% Y/Y
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020,00040,00060,00080,000
100,000120,000140,000160,000180,000200,000
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
(F)
Source: Toronto Real Estate Board
Annual TREB MLS® New Listings
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0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
Source: Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation; TREB Calculations
Toronto CMA New Home CompletionsTotal Freehold and Condo Completions
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0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
Source: Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation; TREB Calculations
Toronto CMA New Home CompletionsTotal Freehold and Condo Completions
Total Completions Net of New Condo Rental Additions
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24
Likelihood of Listing Home For Sale
A3. How likely are you to list your home for sale over the next year? Base: Those who own a home. May 2019 (n=899); 416 (n=395), 905 (n=504). November 2018 (n=2502); 416 (n=1216), 905 (n=1286). November 2017 (n=2753); 416 (n=1219), 905 (n=1534). May 2017 (n=2019); 416 (n=959), 905 (n=1060).
40% 37%32%
14% 12% 12%
Nov 2017 Nov 2018 May 2019
TOTAL GTA
[NET]
LIKELY(Very / Somewhat)
VERY LIKELY
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25
Likelihood of Listing Home For Sale
A3. How likely are you to list your home for sale over the next year? Base: Those who own a home. May 2019 (n=899); 416 (n=395), 905 (n=504). November 2018 (n=2502); 416 (n=1216), 905 (n=1286). November 2017 (n=2753); 416 (n=1219), 905 (n=1534). May 2017 (n=2019); 416 (n=959), 905 (n=1060).
38%34%
28%
12% 11% 10%
Nov 2017 Nov 2018 May 2019
905
[NET]
LIKELY(Very / Somewhat)
VERY LIKELY
43%40% 38%
16%13% 15%
Nov 2017 Nov 2018 May 2019
416
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© 2018 Ipsos 26
5%
5%
4%
4%
13%
12%
8%
8%
72%
72%
71%
60%
3%
5%
10%
18%
7%
6%
8%
10%
Not heard of program
Net(T2B-B2B)
Federal First-Time Homebuyer Incentive 5% 8%
Increase First-Time Buyer RRSP Withdrawal Limit 5% 6%
OFSI Mortgage Stress Test 11% -6%
Provincial and Municipal Land Transfer Taxes 4% -16%
Government Programs/Policies to Incentivize Listing a Home
12. Will the following government programs/policies make you more or less likely to list a home for sale over the next 12 months?Base: Those who own a home (n=899); 416 (n=395), 905 (n=504).
Much more likely More likely No impact Less likely Much less likely
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-10.0%
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
80.0%Annual Average Price Grow
thSale
s-to
-New
Lis
tings
Rat
io
Source: Toronto Real Estate Board
Sales-to-New Listings Ratio & Price GrowthAnnual Average Price Growth (Right Scale)
Sales-to-New Listings Ratio (Left Scale)
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$243,019
$251,520
$275,926
$293,062
$315,154
$335,729
$351,614
$375,878
$379,082
$395,225
$431,277
$464,993
$497,134
$522,958
$566,618
$622,121
$729,837
$822,587
$787,148
$820,000
$0
$100,000
$200,000
$300,000
$400,000
$500,000
$600,000
$700,000
$800,000
$900,000
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
(F)
Source: Toronto Real Estate Board
Annual TREB MLS® Average Price Forecast
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