research report - toronto district school board s brown... · project co-ordinator #04/05 –02...

Susan Manning, Senior Managerand General Editor

Issued by the Organizational Development Department,Research and Information Services

TDSB MAPS RELATED TO INNER-CITYAND ACHIEVEMENT ISSUES

Robert S. Brown, Ed DocProject Co-ordinator

#04/05 –02

April, 2005

Research Report

TABLE OF CONTENTS

INTRODUCTION AND METHODOLOGY................................................ 1

FINDINGS ........................................................................................................ 2

Map 1: Proportion of 17-21 Year Olds Applying to University,

Spring 2004 (Census Tracts).................................................................. 2

Map 2: Proportion of 17-21 Year Olds Applying to University,

Spring 2004 (City Neighbourhoods)...................................................... 4

Map 3: Proportion of First-time Eligible Students Passing the

OSSLT (Method 1) October 2003 ......................................................... 6

Map 4: Proportion of Grade 4 Students with Higher than 10%

Absenteeism, 2003-4.............................................................................. 8

Map 5: Proportion of Grade 7 Students with Levels 3/4 in

Math Report Card Data, June 2003........................................................ 10

Map 6: Proportion of Graduates Out of 17 Year Olds, TDSB 2003-4 ........ 12

Map 7: Proportion of Grade 9 Students in the Academic Program of Study:

Grade 9 Cohort of 2003-4 ...................................................................... 14

Map 8: Proportion of Students With Fewer than 7 Credits by End of

Grade 9, Grade 9 Cohort of 2003-4 ....................................................... 16

Map 9: Proportion of Recent Immigrants to Canada in the TDSB

Students Who Arrived 1999-2004, TDSB Fall 2004 ............................ 18

Map 10: TDSB and Community Food Programs, Fall 2004 ....................... 20

Map 11: Quartile of Highest Ranked Elementary Schools on the Learning

Opportunities Index, 2004-5 (With TDSB Regions) ............................. 22

Map 12: Quartile of Highest Ranked Elementary Schools on the Learning

Opportunities Index, 2004-5 (With Income, Major Streets,

and Railways) ........................................................................................ 24

Map 13: TDSB Students Regions of Birth (Spring, 2004) .......................... 26

Appendix: the Learning Opportunities Index, 2004-5....................................... 28

References.......................................................................................................... 29

FIGURES

Figure 1: Mean and Median Absenteeism by Student Age TDSB, 2003-4....... 8

1

INTRODUCTION AND METHODOLOGY

The attached maps are intended to geographically illustrate socio-economic,

demographic and achievement characteristics of students in the Toronto District School

Board. It is an update of a series of maps originally produced in Fall 2002.

The maps use the ArcView GIS software, with data from Research and

Information Services joined to already-existing geographical themes (e.g., locations of

TDSB elementary schools, Statistics Canada dissemination areas and census tracts, City

of Toronto neighbourhoods). In one case (location of school food programs) the locations

were geocoded according to addresses provided by the School Food Programs committee.

Unless otherwise indicated, legends of the polygon themes (e.g. census tracts in

Map 1) are organized using the “quantiles” method— for the purposes of this report, the

variable is divided into five even parts. Thus, for average family income, the first break

shows the twenty percent of dissemination areas with the lowest average family income;

the fifth break shows the twenty percent of dissemination areas with the highest average

family income1.

For maps using census tract legends, categories were calcuated within SPSS

rather than the default GIS “quantiles” method. This is because several census tracts

appeared as multiple polygons (e.g. waterfront islands) and the GIS calculations

consequently had slightly different categories than those calculated using SPSS. (The

difference is slight and this precaution is probably unnecessary.)

For each of the maps, there is a brief description of how the map was produced.

1 The 2002 report used the default natural breaks method, also called the ‘Jenks authorization method”,which organizes themes according to a statistical formula into the classes or subsets which mathematicallyminimizes variation within classes, and maximizes variation between classes. The ‘quantiles’ method wasused rather than the “natural break” method for this report in part because it is easier to explain andunderstand.

2

FINDINGS

Map 1: Proportion of 17-21 Year olds Applying to University, Spring 2004 (Census Tracts)

The base information is the number of 17-21 year old students who applied to universities through the Ontario Universities Applications

Centre (OUAC), out of all 17-21 year old students attending the TDSB in Spring 2004.

In this case, data from OUAC was linked to TDSB information on students in the TDSB in Spring 2004. The linking was done using a

process designed by Research and Information Services, working with the TDSB Data Warehouse.

The geographical unit here is census tracts in the City of Toronto (there are around 500 census tracts in Toronto). The census tract for each

student was located using the postal code of student residence (a program called the Postal Code Conversion File provides the best match of postal

code to census tract).

Thus the proportions shown in the map are the result of dividing the number of applicants to university living in the neighbourhood, by the

total number of 17-21 year old students living in the neighbourhood.

3

Proportion in Each CT7.1 - 22.622.7 - 29.429.5 - 37.737.8 - 4848.1 - 92.3

S

N

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Map 1: Proportion of 17-21 Year olds Applying to University Spring 2004 (Census Tracts)

Source: Research and Information Services, TDSB; OUAC. Base Map: Toronto Land Information Services

Note: Tracts with fewer than 5 students deleted

4

Map 2: Proportion of 17-21 Year olds Applying to University, Spring 2004 (City Neighbourhoods)

The base information is the number of 17-21 year old students who applied to universities through the Ontario Universities Applications

Centre (OUAC), out of all 17-21 year old students attending the TDSB in Spring 2004.

In this case, data from OUAC was linked to TDSB information on students in the TDSB in Spring 2004. The linking was done using a

process designed by Research and Information Services, working with the TDSB Data Warehouse.

The geographical unit here is neighbourhoods in the City of Toronto. Neighbourhood profiles have been developed by the City of Toronto’s

Community and Neighbourhoods Department. The profiles were developed to help government and community agencies with their local planning,

by providing socio-economic data at a meaningful geographic area. Not all people define "neighbourhoods" the same way. For the purposes of

statistical reporting, however, these neighbourhoods were defined based on Statistics Canada census tracts. There are 140 Toronto neighbourhoods.

For more detail, see

http://www.city.toronto.on.ca/demographics/neighbourhood_profiles.htm

The neighbourhood for each student was located using the postal code of student residence (a program called the Postal Code Conversion File

provides the best match of postal code to census tract, and the census tracts were aggregated to the neighbourood level).

Thus the proportions shown in the map are the result of dividing the number of applicants to university living in the neighbourhood, by the

total number of 17-21 year old students living in the neighbourhood.

5

Proportion of Applicants in Each Neighbhourhood11.1 - 23.823.8 - 29.829.8 - 36.636.6 - 47.647.6 - 72.1

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Map 2: Proportion of 17-21 Year olds Applying to University Spring 2004 (City Neighbourhoods)

Source: Research and Information Services, TDSB; City of Toronto; OUAC. Base Map: Toronto Land Information Services

6

Map 3: Proportion of First-time Eligible Students Passing the OSSLT(Method 1) October 2003

The base information for Map 3 is the number of first-time eligible students in the TDSB who passed the EQAO Grade 10 literacy test, out of

all students registered by EQAO as Grade 10 students. The test was administered in October 2003.

In this case, data from EQAO was linked to TDSB information on students in the TDSB in Fall 2003. The linking was done using a process

designed by Research and Information Services, working with the TDSB Data Warehouse.

The geographical unit here is census tracts in the City of Toronto (there are around 500 census tracts in Toronto). The census tract for each

student was located using the postal code of student residence (a program called the Postal Code Conversion File provides the best match of postal

code to census tract).

Thus the proportions shown in the map are the result of dividing the number of students living in the census tract who passed the Grade 10

literacy test, by the total number of first-time eligible students registered by EQAO living in the census tract. A match was successful for 97% of the

22,874 TDSB students identified as first-time eligible.

Overall, 58% of all first-time eligible students passed both reading and writing in the OSSLT (known as Method 1). The proportion of

students passing in census tracts varied from 21% to 100%.

Where there were fewer than 5 students living in the census tract, that census tract was deleted and will appear blank in the map.

7

Proportion in Each CT21.4 - 46.846.9 - 5656.1 - 65.765.8 - 75.976 - 100

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N

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Map 3: Proportion of First-time Eligible Students Passing the OSSLT (Method 1) October 2003

Source: Research and Information Services, TDSB; EQAO. Base Map: Toronto Land Information Services


8

Map 4: Proportion of Grade 4 Students with Higher than 10% Absenteeism, 2003-4

Absenteeism refers to the time a student is absent from school for unauthorized reasons (e.g., illness, truancy).

Absenteeism varies according to age and grade. Figure 1 shows the mean and median absenteeism rate for TDSB students in 2003-4. The

absenteeism rate is calculated by taking the number of days absent out of the days attended between September 2003 and June 2004. If a student was

absent for 19 school days out of 190 school days, s/he would have an absenteeism rate of 10%. This would be equivalent to missing one day of

school every two weeks.

As seen in Figure 1, absenteeism is quite stable between ages 6-13 (Grades 1-8). We have looked at Grade 4 students who had above 10%

absenteeism, considered to be “high absenteeism” at the elementary level. 10% of all Grade 4 students had greater than 10% absenteeism.

Figure 1: Mean and Median Absenteeism by Student Age TDSB, 2003-4

0

5

10

15

20

25

4 yrs 6 8 10 12 14 16 18Age of Students

Ave

rage

Abs

ente

eism

(%)

meanmedian

As with the previous maps, the geographical unit here was census tracts in the City of Toronto. The census tract for each student was located

using the postal code of student residence.

Thus the proportions shown in the map are the result of dividing the number Grade 4 TDSB students living in the census tract in Fall 2003,

who had an absenteeism rate of more than 10%, by the total number of Grade 4 students living in the census tract in Fall 2003.


9

Proportion of Grade 4 Students with Greater than 10% Absenteism0 - 2.93 - 6.46.5 - 10.110.2 - 14.514.6 - 60

S

N

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Map 4: Proportion of Grade 4 Students with Higher than 10% Absenteeism, 2003-4

Source: Research and Information Services, Data Warehouse, TDSB. Base Map: Toronto Land Information Services


10

Map 5: Proportion of Grade 7 Students with Levels 3/4 in MathReport Card Data, June 2003

The base information is the number of Grade 7 students, who were given an overall mark of Levels 3 or 4 in Math, according to their June

2003 Report cards.

Student Report Cards do not have an overall “Math” grade but instead results from five different Math strands (Data Management, Geometry,

Measurement, Number Sense, Patterning). The results of all five strands were combined here for an overall Math score. Students are classified as

having achieved Levels 3 or 4 if the overall mark was 70% or higher.



Thus the proportions shown in the map are the result of dividing the number of Grade 7 students with Levels 3 or 4 in Math, out of the total

number of students for whom we have June 2003 Report Card data. It should be noted that not all schools returned Report Card data, and therefore

the pattern may not be as accurate as it would be with the complete set of all Grade 7 students.


12

Map 6: Proportion of Graduates Out of 17 Year Olds, TDSB 2003-4

The base information is the number of 17 year old students in the TDSB registered in secondary schools in Fall 2003, who had completed 30

or more credits by Fall 2004.

Under the new OSS curriculum, students are more likely to graduate in four years. As well, students who graduate in four years are less

likely to return to the TDSB for a fifth year of study (as the majority of them did under the former OS:IS curriculum). Instead, these graduates are

most likely to attend post-secondary institutions, or enter the work force.

Out of all 17 year old students registered in the TDSB in Fall 2003, 53% had graduated by Fall 2004. (“Graduation” here is defined as

achieving a high school diploma, or achieving 30 or more credits, by the end of the 2003-4 school year.) Students who didn’t graduate returned to

the TDSB (36%) transferred to another educational system (3%) or dropped out (9%).



Thus the proportions shown in the map are the result of dividing the number of 17 year old TDSB students living in the census tract in Fall

2003, who successfully completed 30 or more credits by Fall 2004, by the total number of 17 year old students living in the census tract in Fall 2003.


13

Proportion of Graduates Out of 17 Year Olds0 - 40.9140.92 - 49.3849.39 - 56.5256.53 - 65.9165.92 - 100

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N

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Map 6: Proportion of Graduates Out of 17 Year Olds, TDSB 2003-4



14

Map 7: Proportion of Grade 9 Students in the AcademicProgram of Study: Grade 9 Cohort of 2003-4

The base information is the number of students in the 2003-4 Grade 9 cohort taking a majority of courses in the “Academic” program of

study. Students in the Grade 9 cohort were defined as students between 13 and 15 attending TDSB secondary and JHS schools in Fall 2003, who

were new to secondary studies according to available student records.

Grade 9 students were classified into program according to the majority of courses (regardless of subject). For example, if the majority of a

student’s courses were in the “Academic” program of study, the student was classified as an “Academic” student.4

Around three quarters (72%) of the Grade 9 cohort classified this way were students taking primarily “Academic” courses; 23% were taking

primarily “Applied” courses; while 5% were taking primarily “Essentials”(locally-developed) courses. The course preference of slightly less than

1% of students could not be determined.


using the postal code of student residence (a program called the postal code conversion file provides the best match of postal code to census tract).

Thus the proportions shown in the map are the result of dividing the number of Grade 9 TDSB secondary students living in the census tract in

Fall 2003, who took a majority of their courses in the Academic Program of Study, by the total number of Grade 9 TDSB secondary students living

in the census tract in Fall 2003.


4 Note that a student might be classified as being in one program of study, according to the majority of credits taken, but be taking Math or Science in another program: forexample, if a student was taking Applied level Grade 9 Math but a majority of his/her credits were Academic, the student is classified as taking Academic courses.

16

Map 8: Proportion of Students With Fewer than 7 Creditsby End of Grade 9: Grade 9 Cohort of 2003-4

The base information is the number of students in the 2003-4 Grade 9 cohort who had completed fewer than 7 credits by the end of Grade 9

(August 2004). As noted in Map 7, students in the Grade 9 cohort were defined as students between 13 and 15 attending TDSB secondary and JHS

schools in Fall 2003, who were new to secondary studies according to available student records.

TDSB research has found that Grade 9 and 10 achievement patterns tended to be very powerful predictors of students’ subsequent secondary

school performance. The probability that students will not graduate from high school within the expected timeframe increases dramatically as

students fail to acquire the requisite number of credits in Grade 9. Slightly under one-fifth (17%) of students had completed less than 7 credits by the

end of their Grade 9 year, increasing their risk of not graduating on time. This proportion of at-risk Grade 9 students has slightly declined over the

past four years, from 20% in 2000-1.



Thus the proportions shown in the map are the result of dividing the number of Grade 9 TDSB secondary students living in the census tract in

Fall 2003, who had completed fewer than 7 credits by August 2004, by the total number of Grade 9 TDSB secondary students living in the census

tract in Fall 2003.


18

Map 9: Proportion of Recent Immigrants to Canada in the TDSBStudents Who Arrived 1999-2004, TDSB Fall 2004

The base information is the number of students in the TDSB registered in Fall 2004, who had been born outside of Canada and emigrated to

Canada Fall 1999 or later.



Thus the proportions shown in the map are the result of dividing the number of TDSB students living in the census tract in Fall 2004, who arrived in

Canada from another county in Fall 1999 or later, by the total number of TDSB students living in the census tract in Fall 2004.


19

Proportion in Each CT0 - 6.516.52 - 11.0711.08 - 17.1117.12 - 25.825.81 - 62

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N

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Map 9: Proportion of Recent Immigrants to Canada in the TDSBStudents Who Arrived 1999-2004, TDSB Fall 2004



20

Map 10: Location of School Food Programs, Fall 2004

The base information is the location of school food programs in TDSB and community locations (Fall 2004). There are over 250 of these

programs, although in several cases, multiple programs will be located in the same location (e.g. breakfast and lunch programs in the same school).

The locations are identified as dots.

In the background is the average family income, according to the 2001 Census: the darker the area, the higher the average income. The areas

here are dissemination areas (DA’s), the ‘building blocks’ of the 2001 Census. Since there are over 3,500 DA’s in the City of Toronto, the borders of

the areas were removed to avoid confusion (information from the downtown area, for example, would be almost impossible to make out if DA

boundaries were included because of the high number of DA’s there). DA’s with missing or suppressed income have been left blank.

22

Map 11: Quartiles of Highest Ranked Elementary Schools on theLearning Opportunities Index, 2004-5 (With TDSB Regions)

The base information here is the top 25% ranked schools in the 2004-5 Learning Opportunities Index, an index of school need calculated by

Research and Information Services (for more details, see the Appendix).

The top 25% of schools (the 118 elementary schools of greatest need) are identified as dots

Also included are the borders of the new TDSB regions (NE, NW, SE, SW).

24

Map 12: Quartile of Highest Ranked Elementary Schools on the Learning Opportunities Index, 2004-5(With Income, Major Streets, and Railways)

The base information here is the same as Map 11: the top 25% ranked schools in the 2004-5 Learning Opportunities Index, an index of school

need calculated by Research and Information Services (for more details,see the Appendix). The top 25% of schools (the 118 elementary schools of

greatest need) are identified as dots.

Also included are the major streets, railways, and average family income, according to the 2001 Census.

26

Map 13: TDSB Students Regions of Birth (Spring, 2004)

The base information here is the regions of birth of TDSB elementary and secondary students as of Spring 2004, superimposed on a map of

countries of the world. The regions of birth were designed by Research and Information Services in 2000, working with the then ESL District-wide

Co-ordinator. The regions, with the number of TDSB students born in each region, are in the legend on the left side of the map

28

Appendix: the Learning Opportunities Index, 2004-5

Since the 1960s, the City of Toronto school boards have allocated funding to schools based on social and economic characteristics of their

school populations. These processes were referred to by different names including "inner-city,” "learning opportunities,” “special needs,” and

"compensatory funding". In each case, an index was developed that ranked schools according to level of need to ensure appropriate allocations could

be made.

The Toronto District School Board (TDSB) LOI was developed in 1999. It is based on variables and methodology that has been identified in

research as being reliable and valid. These variables are used nationally and provincially. The index is updated yearly. It combines information from

the following variables:

• average and median income of families with school-aged children;

• parental education;

• proportion of lone-parent families;

• recent immigration;

• housing type (apartment, single detached housing); and

• student mobility.

This information comes from several different sources. Data related to immigration comes from TDSB Student Information System (SIS).

Student mobility data comes from mobility calculations derived from the TDSB Student Information System. Data related to income comes from the

most recent data available from income tax returns. Information related to parental education, lone-parent families, and housing comes from the

National Census as well as the TDSB Student Information System. Information from tax returns and the National Census are linked to school areas

using postal codes for all students in a particular school. In this way, income levels, education, and housing types for each school area can be

calculated.

The LOI includes three of the four criteria (income, parental education, immigration) used in the Ministry’s distribution process of the LOI

Grant. The TDSB process incorporates some additional variables (e.g., lone-parent families; student mobility) that are considered to be closely

related to student achievement.

R08(staff/Student Research/Maps Related to Inner-City Issues/report/acrobat)RSB.3458 29

References

City of Toronto, The Social Policy Research and Analysis Unit (2004). Neighbourhood Profiles. See

http://www.city.toronto.on.ca/demographics/neighbourhood_profiles.htm (assessed April 2005).

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