Research project related to short-lived climate pollutants S-12, Environment Research and Technology Development Fund, MOEJ

Toshihiko Masui National Institute for Environmental Studies

masui@nies.go.jp

Bridging Atmospheric Science and Policy in Asia: Areas for Collaboration Shinagawa Prince Hotel, Tokyo, Japan

March 10, 2015 Acknowledgement: This research is supported by the Environment Research and Technology Development Fund (S-12) of MOEJ.

Concept of SLCP(Short-Lived Climate Pollutants)：Integrated Assessment of Black Carbon and Tropospheric Ozone (UNEP 2011)

CCAC (Climate and Clean Air Coalition) SLCP impact study：Emission Gap

Report (UNEP 2010)

However, the radiative forcing and impact assessment have large uncertainties: BC and indirect effects

Recent large BC forcing estimates: Chuan et al. (PNAS 12);Bond et al. ( JGR 13）

Background: Importance in SLCP impact studies

Moreover, SLCP may cause large regional climate changes. 2

Regional strategies

⇅ Global

strategies MDG, SDG, Future Earth

Environment Research and Technology Development Fund, MOEJ S-12: Promotion of climate policies

by assessing impacts of SLCP and LLGHG emission pathways

3

Regional atmosphere and environment

assessment model

Climate and environment

model

Chemical transfer model and emission inventory in Asia

Climate model, earth system model climate change impact and adaptation

Policy maker Stakeholder

Society

Theme 4: Tool kit and data archive (synthesis system), NICAM-Chem

information transmission system utilization

Theme 1: ・Analysis on regional atmospheric

quality change ・Emission inventory (REAS) ・Inverse model to estimate emissions

Theme 3: ・impact assessment of aerosol

and GHG ・Assessment of health, agriculture,

water and sea level rise

CCAC, UNFCC, IPCC, EANET Proposal and assessment of climate and

air pollution policies

Science

Definition of metric Database

Solution of issues

model upgrading

Future scenarios and events related to SLCP emissions Emission inventory

Feedback of impacts Assessment of activities/policies

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/ research/p3/emission.htm

Integrated assessment model (AIM)

Theme 2: ・Socio-economic and global emission scenarios ・National & local emission scenarios ・Urban & household emission and air quality

assessment

Enduse model Socio-economic and emission scenario

Environment Research and Technology Development Fund, MOEJ S-12: Promotion of climate policies

by assessing impacts of SLCP and LLGHG emission pathways

• Members – Project Leader & Theme 4 Leader: Prof. Teruyuki Nakajima, Univ.

of Tokyo – Theme 1 Leader: Dr. Toshimasa Ohara, NIES

• Sub-themes: NIES, ASAP, MRI – Theme 2 Leader: Dr. Toshihiko Masui, NIES

• Sub-themes: NIES, MHIR, Kyoto Univ. – Theme 3 Leader: Prof. Toshihiko Takemura, Kyushu Univ.

• Sub-theme: Kyushu Univ., Nagoya Univ., Kyoto Univ., Ibaraki Univ., JAMSTEC, Kinki Univ.

• Research Period: FY2014-FY2018

4

The 2nd ABC-SLCP Symposium, 21-23 July, Tokyo

5

Chemical Transport Modeling system

Theme 1: Regional air quality change event analysis

Multi-scale seamless CTM （NICAM-Chem）

Global/regional CTM （MIROC/ESM/CHEM/WRF/CMAQ）

Inverse Modeling system Emission Inventory system

Regional Air quality change events

Beijing Olympic game, AQ mitigations in Japan and China,,

Spring festival, weekend effects, economic crisis, SURYA,,,

AIM

combined

Theme2

Analysis/verification of emission reduction and AQ changes due to SLCP mitigation

Analysis/verification system for SLCP mitigation

6

Theme 2: Improvement of Integrated Assessment Model and Quantification of Future Scenarios

Goals of Theme 2 • AIM(Asia-Pacific Integrated Model)/Enduse model will be improved in order to assess air pollution

management technologies in global scale and major Asian countries. National AIM/Enduse model will be disaggregated into local scale. By using the improved models, emissions scenarios on LLGHG and SLCP will be quantified taking into account GHG mitigation options and air pollution management.

• Emission scenarios and air pollution impacts in household and city scale will be assessed. • Future socio-economic scenarios reflecting climate and environmental change based on results in

Theme 3 will be assessed.

Sub-(1): NIES Global scale

AIM/Enduse model AIM/CGE model

Sub-(3): Kyoto Univ. Household & city scale

Emission model Air pollution model

Theme 1 Theme 3 Theme 4

Feedback from Impacts

Future Scenarios Countermeasures

Futures Scenarios Inventory

Assessment of actions and policies

Expected Results • Quantification of socio-economic scenarios and LLGHG & SLCP emission scenarios taking into

account climate and environmental change in global/national/local scale. • Assessment of GHG mitigation and air pollution reduction policies in Asian countries.

Sub-(2): MHIR National/Local scale AIM/Enduse model

7

Theme 3: Assessment of climate-environment and impacts by SLCPs with numerical models

Quantitative assessment of effects of SLCPs on climate, hydrological cycle, health, and agriculture with climate-air quality coupled models. ➡Contribution to scientific bases for suitable reductions of SLCPs/WMGHGs.

Objective of S-12-3

Emission inventories and scenarios [Themes 1 & 2] Suitable reduction path [Theme 4]

Assessment of effects of SLCPs on climate with climate-aerosol-chemistry models (SPRINTARS/CHASER) [Sub-themes 1 & 2]

Assessment of changes in hydrological cycles by SLCPs with climate models [Sub-themes 5 & 6]

Assessment of impacts on health and agriculture by SLCPs [sub-themes 3 & 4]

Theme 3

Environment Research and Technology Development Fund (ERTDF) of the Ministry of the Environment of Japan S-12:

Theme 3 Assessment of climate-environment and impacts by SLCPs with numerical models

Theme 1 Theme 2 Theme 4

8

6 GHGs emissions pathways in Asia and comparison with 2 ℃ target pathways

9

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

GHG

emis

sion

s in

Asia

(Gt C

O2e

q)

Reference T50 T100 T200 T400 2 ℃ 2.5 ℃ 3 ℃

-100%

-90%

-80%

-70%

-60%

-50%

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

GHG

redu

ctio

ns ra

tio in

Asi

a(%

from

refe

renc

e)

Source) modified from Hanaoka et al, Environmental Pollution (2014)

Reference 50US$/tCO2 100US$/tCO2 200US$/tCO2 400US$/tCO2

2℃ scenario 2.5 ℃ scenario 3 ℃ scenario

Scenario name 2013 2020 2030 2040 2050 Reference 0 0 0 0 0

50 US$/tCO2 3.75 12.5 25 37.5 50 100 US$/tCO2 7.5 25 50 75 100 200 US$/tCO2 15 50 100 150 200 400 US$/tCO2 30 100 200 300 400

Emissions constraints of achieving 2℃-3℃ were calculated based on UNEP Gap Report Future global economy-wide carbon prices scenarios (US$/tCO2)

45% reductions from the 2005 levels

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 20452050

SO2

emis

sion

s in

Asia

(Mt S

O2)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050N

Oxe

mis

sion

s in

Asia

(Mt N

Ox)

0

5

10

15

20

25

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

BCem

issi

ons i

n As

ia(M

t BC)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

PMem

issi

ons i

n As

ia(M

t PM

)

SLCP & Air pollutants emissions in Asia - Co-benefits of implementing CO2 mitigation policies-

10

Reference

50US$/tCO2

100US$/tCO2

200US$/tCO2

400US$/tCO2

2 ℃ scenario

2.5 ℃ scenario

3℃ scenario

Source) modified from Hanaoka et al, Environmental Pollution (2014)