research market report district of columbia states... · 2017. 7. 18. · the washington, dc...
TRANSCRIPT
RESEARCH MARKET REPORT
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIAOFFICE | Q2 2017
State of the Economy p.2
Leasing Activity p.3
Development Pipeline p.4
Market Outlook p.5
Market Breakdown p.6
IN THIS ISSUE
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA | OFFICE MARKET REPORT | Q2 2017 | COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL2
A slight up-tick in leasing velocity last quarter was not enough to propel the Washington, DC market’s second quarter net absorption. The three largest leases for the quarter were all Federal renewals. The Department of Education’s 314,243-square-foot lease at 550 12th Street, NW led the quarter’s leasing activity when they signed in early May of this year. On the brighter side, because these leases were renewals, there was little to no contraction. Additionally, owners continue to be bullish with development in the District. Several new projects broke ground in the second quarter bringing the total square footage under development to just over 6.5 million square feet, nearly double what was under construction just a year prior.
Economics
During the second quarter of 2017, the District of Columbia’s economy grew by 0.22 percent or 0.87 percent annually. This was the slowest rate of growth since the third quarter of 2013 when it was 0.14 percent. The recent high water mark of economic growth for the District of Columbia occurred during fourth quarter of 2015 when the economy grew by 0.60 percent or 2.44 percent annually.
While slower than previous quarters, economic activity generated new jobs in the District of Columbia, but not in office-using sectors. During the quarter, total non-farm employment increased by 0.14 percent, but in the office-using sectors employment fell by 0.54 percent. The professional and business services industries were the largest and most impactful to the office sectors that reported job loss. During the quarter, nearly 1,460 of these jobs evaporated, resulting in 600 jobs lost for the year. Significant job loss also occurred in the government sector of the economy. During the quarter, the Federal Government shed 1,450 jobs, bringing the year-to-date loss to nearly 620 jobs. The advocacy industry was the only sector of the economy in which office-using employment increased. During the quarter, about 180 of these jobs were created. However, employment in the sector was down for the year with nearly 510 positions being eliminated during the first quarter of 2017.
Market Indicators
Q2 2017 Office Market All Classes Class A Class B & C
Vacancy Rate 11.3% 12.5% 9.5%
Change from Q1 2017(basis points) 21 33 4
Absorption (Square Feet) -305,992 -281,262 -24,730
New Construction (Square Feet) - - -
Under Construction (Millions Square Feet) 6.51 5.88 0.63
Asking Rates Per Square Foot Per Year
Direct Asking Rate $54.96 $59.69 $45.51
Change from Q1 2017 $0.73 -$0.12 -$1.07
Summary Statistics
Year-End Projection
VACANCY
Q2 2017
NET ABSORPTION
CONSTRUCTION
RENTAL RATE
DC Development: No Signs of Slowing
$59.69
$45.67
$38.13
$35
$40
$45
$50
$55
$60
$65
Class A Class B Class C
Direct Asking Rental Rates By Class
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA | OFFICE MARKET REPORT | Q2 2017 | COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL 3
Demand
Weakness in the job market continued to translate into lower demand for office space. During the quarter, 305,992 square feet of space was given back to the market, bringing the year-to-date net absorption to negative 353,261 square feet. This is only the second time in five years that net absorption in the DC market has been negative for two consecutive quarters. As long as both the Federal Government and the legal industry continue to consolidate their footprints, and the office-using employment growth remains lackluster, space will continue to be returned to the market.
Falling demand during the quarter was most pronounced in Class A product, with 281,262 square feet of space returned to the market. Even when total demand was negative in the recent quarters, demand for Class A space remained strong because of the flight to quality. While one quarter does not make a trend, continued lack of demand for Class A office space could have major implications on the underlying market fundamentals.
District of Columbia—Office Market—Leasing Activity | Q2 2017TENANT ADDRESS SUBMARKET - CLASS LEASE TYPE LEASED SPACE (SF)
GSA - US Department of Education 550 12th Street, SW Southwest - A Renewal 314,243
GSA - Department of Homeland Security (DHS) 1120 Vermont Avenue, NW East End - B Renewal 119,719
Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) 1990 K Street, NW CBD - A Short-Term Renewal 96,000
Goodwin Procter, LLP 1900 N Street, NW CBD - A Relocation/Consolidation 75,000
Washington Gas & Energy Services, Inc. 1000 Maine Avenue, SW Southwest - T Relocation/Consolidation 70,063
Bank of America 1800 K Street, NW CBD - A Relocation 61,722
Research Triangle Institute 701 13th Street, NW East End - A Renewal/Expansion 52,274
Hollingsworth LLP 1350 Eye Street, NW East End - A Renewal 48,543
Morgan Stanley 1747 Pennsylvania Avenue, NW CBD - A Expansion 40,329
-1,000-800-600-400-200
0200400600
Q3
2014
Q4
2014
Q1
2015
Q2
2015
Q3
2015
Q4
2015
Q1
2016
Q2
2016
Q3
2016
Q4
2016
Q1
2017
Q2
2017
(Tho
usan
ds S
F)
Net Absorption
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA | OFFICE MARKET REPORT | Q2 2017 | COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL4
Supply
For the second quarter in a row, more than half a million square feet of space broke ground in the District. At 286,850 square feet, One Freedom Plaza, located at 1301 Pennsylvania Avenue, NW, was the largest new project to break ground in the second quarter. It is the future home of mega law firm Kirkland and Ellis, which pre-committed to roughly 70 percent of the building. The two other significant ground breaking’s include 2100 K Street, NW and 1900 N Street, NW, both commenced on a speculative basis. It is rumored, however, that Goodwin Proctor signed a letter of intent at 1900 N Street. Both of these projects illustrate how confident owners are on starting high-quality projects in good locations despite the perceived downsizing of tenants and the weakening of the real estate fundamentals.
With 6.5 million square feet currently under construction or renovation, the amount of product being developed is over three times what it was just three years ago. It is clear that owners believe that tenants will continue to flock to new high-end construction. Looking from the outside, with vacancy expected to increase and little to no positive absorption expected in the near future, it would seem a mistake to go speculative in construction. Tenants, however, continue to prefer new high-end space to commodity A and developers are willing to risk short-term vacancy to capture these tenants.
0.01.02.03.04.05.06.07.0
Q3
2014
Q4
2014
Q1
2015
Q2
2015
Q3
2015
Q4
2015
Q1
2016
Q2
2016
Q3
2016
Q4
2016
Q1
2017
Q2
2017
(Milli
ons
SF)
Under Construction
0100200300400500600700800900
Q3
2014
Q4
2014
Q1
2015
Q2
2015
Q3
2015
Q4
2015
Q1
2016
Q2
2016
Q3
2016
Q4
2016
Q1
2017
Q2
2017
(Tho
usan
ds S
F)
Deliveries
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
900
19th
St N
W
1000
F S
t NW
2000
K S
t NW
800
Mai
ne A
ve S
W70
0 Pe
nnsy
lvan
iaAv
e SE
1800
Eye
St N
W68
29-6
837
4th
St N
W11
00 1
5th
St N
W
2001
K S
t NW
901
4th
St N
W60
0 W
ater
St S
W21
12 P
enns
ylva
nia
Ave
NW
99 M
St S
E
1108
16t
h S
t NW
655
New
Yor
kAv
e N
W20
0 M
assa
chus
etts
Ave
NW
1000
Mai
ne A
ve S
W
1441
L S
t NW
1 M
St S
E17
01 R
hode
Isla
ndAv
e N
W
150
M S
treet
NE
1700
M S
t NW
1301
Pen
nsyl
vani
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W50
0 L'
Enfa
nt P
lz SW
250
Mas
sach
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W20
50 M
St N
W
Tota
l Dev
elop
men
t R
BA
(Tho
usan
ds S
F)
Development PipelineDeliveries, Under Construction
Deliveries Under Construction Availability
Q1 2017
Q2 2017
Q32017
Q4 2017
Q12018
Q2 2018
Q3 2018
Q42018 2019+
Sources: CoStar Group; Colliers International
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA | OFFICE MARKET REPORT | Q2 2017 | COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL 5
Vacancy On the heels of the second straight quarter of falling demand for office space, the vacancy rate rose 20 basis points to end the quarter at 11.3 percent. This matches the five-year high, and there are no indications of making significant strides back down. Both the direct and sublet vacancy rate increased in the second quarter, which rose 10.3 to 10.4 percent and from 0.8 to 0.9 percent. Most notably, there was a 30-basis-point increase in the Class A vacancy rate to 12.5 percent, which broke a three quarter trend of vacancy decreases. It is expected, given the amount of speculative construction in the pipeline and limited tenant demand, that this will not be the ceiling of vacancy but likely the floor for the next 18 months.
Rental Rates
Despite negative demand for two quarters in a row and vacancy on the rise, rental rates continued to increase, jumping over 70 cents to $54.96 per square foot during the quarter. This rise was fueled by the increased Class B rental rate, which rose by over a dollar to end at $45.67 per square foot on a full service basis. The Class A rental rate decreased slightly from $59.81 to $59.69 per square foot. It is unlikely this will continue as new space delivers to the market and drives the trophy and Class A market rental rate averages up.
Outlook
Going forward the Washington, DC market will become even more bifurcated than it already is. Trophy developments will continue to poach tenants out of aging space at a growing rate. Deliveries of these trophy developments is expected to send commodity A vacancy upwards. With over 6.5 million square feet under construction and even more scheduled to break ground in the near future, commodity A buildings will have to cut rates to compete for demand. The difference in average rental rates between trophy and commodity A already has a larger delta than Class C and commodity A space, and that should increase going forward.
10.0%
10.5%
11.0%
11.5%
Q3
2014
Q4
2014
Q1
2015
Q2
2015
Q3
2015
Q4
2015
Q1
2016
Q2
2016
Q3
2016
Q4
2016
Q1
2017
Q2
2017
Vacancy Rate
$50
$51
$52
$53
$54
$55
$56
Q3
2014
Q4
2014
Q1
2015
Q2
2015
Q3
2015
Q4
2015
Q1
2016
Q2
2016
Q3
2016
Q4
2016
Q1
2017
Q2
2017
($/S
F G
ross
)
Direct Asking Rental Rate
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA | OFFICE MARKET REPORT | Q2 2017 | COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL6
District of Columbia—Office Market—All Classes | Q2 2017
MARKET EXISTING INVENTORY NEW SUPPLY YTD NEW
SUPPLY UNDER
CONSTRUCTION ABSORPTION YTD ABSORPTION
OVERALL VACANCY
RATE
DIRECT ASKING RATE
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIACapitol Hill 5,320,095 - - 1,172,877 -19,010 -111,809 9.1% $55.68
Capitol Riverfront 5,030,678 - - 364,000 101,783 122,629 23.2% $48.30
CBD 44,043,913 - 115,338 2,295,228 -60,441 -173,768 7.7% $57.11
East End 47,349,427 - 94,273 1,374,574 -419,615 -193,786 13.5% $59.44
Georgetown 3,191,258 - - - -29,640 -30,801 6.9% $52.74
NoMa 10,980,509 - - 522,550 -68,560 -54,870 12.1% $52.24
Southwest 11,867,749 - - 757,010 174,956 56,978 12.2% $46.15
West End 4,482,399 - - - -2,201 39,431 9.9% $54.90
Uptown 10,926,481 - - 23,140 16,736 -7,265 12.1% $42.85
District of Columbia Total 143,192,509 - 209,611 6,509,379 -305,992 -353,261 11.3% $54.96
District of Columbia—Office Market—Class A | Q2 2017
MARKET EXISTING INVENTORY NEW SUPPLY YTD NEW
SUPPLY UNDER
CONSTRUCTION ABSORPTION YTD ABSORPTION
OVERALL VACANCY
RATE
DIRECT ASKING RATE
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIACapitol Hill 2,941,200 - - 643,077 -7,567 -28,865 9.0% $59.42
Capitol Riverfront 3,809,851 - - 364,000 104,408 121,479 8.7% $49.05
CBD 21,160,056 - 115,338 2,250,920 -28,357 15,737 9.4% $64.38
East End 33,322,908 - 94,273 1,374,574 -486,642 -153,429 15.2% $63.17
Georgetown 1,641,799 - - - -16,785 -15,392 7.7% $57.81
NoMa 9,001,182 - - 522,550 -52,577 -38,887 13.7% $53.14
Southwest 9,161,084 - - 729,010 179,031 61,053 13.2% $46.78
West End 2,850,081 - - - -3,607 31,686 15.1% $54.95
Uptown 2,193,535 - - - 30,834 47,011 5.0% $49.50
District of Columbia Total 86,081,696 - 209,611 5,884,131 -281,262 40,393 12.5% $59.69
District of Columbia—Office Market—Class B & C | Q2 2017
MARKET EXISTING INVENTORY NEW SUPPLY YTD NEW
SUPPLY UNDER
CONSTRUCTION ABSORPTION YTD ABSORPTION
OVERALL VACANCY
RATE
DIRECT ASKING RATE
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIACapitol Hill 2,378,895 - - 529,800 -11,443 -82,944 9.3% $50.89
Capitol Riverfront 1,220,827 - - - -2,625 1,150 68.3% $39.00
CBD 22,883,857 - - 44,308 -32,084 -189,505 6.1% $48.39
East End 14,026,519 - - - 67,027 -40,357 9.3% $45.78
Georgetown 1,549,459 - - - -12,855 -15,409 6.2% $36.64
NoMa 1,979,327 - - - -15,983 -15,983 4.6% $29.00
Southwest 2,706,665 - - 28,000 -4,075 -4,075 8.8% $44.57
West End 1,632,318 - - - 1,406 7,745 0.6% $44.00
Uptown 8,732,946 - - 23,140 -14,098 -54,276 13.9% $42.60
District of Columbia Total 57,110,813 - - 625,248 -24,730 -393,654 9.5% $45.51
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA | OFFICE MARKET REPORT | Q2 2017 | COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL 7
Inventory by Class(Square Feet)
-2,839Office Jobs Lost
6,509,379Under Construction
(Square Feet)
0New Deliveries(Square Feet)
-305,992Absorption
(Square Feet)
$54.96 Direct Asking Rate
11.3%Vacancy Rate
SECOND QUARTER 2017
OVERALL QUICK STATS
Class A60.1%
Class C 4.6%
Class B35.3%
High barriers to develop in traditional locations has opened other areas for commercialization. The unfettered success of the Wharf has completely transformed the former Federal enclave. Phase I from a commercial standpoint continues to bring in coveted tenants including Washington Gas this quarter. Phase II was announced earlier this quarter to break ground in the third quarter of 2018. This 1.2 million square foot development will include three office towers, retail and luxury condominiums and has 10 different architects working on it. There will also be improvements to the marina and outdoor public space.
8 North American Research & Forecast Report | Q4 2014 | Office Market Outlook | Colliers International
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