research & forecast report...research & forecast report tampa q4 2017 | multifamily source:...

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Research & Forecast Report

TAMPAQ4 2017 | Multifamily

Source: AXIOMetrics. RCA, CoStar

Market Survey Results and ForecastsSequential Month Annual

1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 Dec-17 2015 2016 2017 2018F 2019F 2020F 2021F

Effective Rent Per Unit $1,117 $1,134 $1,149 $1,148 $1,144 $1,047 $1,106 $1,137 $1,168 $1,202 $1,248 $1,285

Per Sq. Ft $1.18 $1.20 $1.21 $1.21 $1.21 $1.11 $1.17 $1.20 $1.23 $1.27 $1.32 $1.36

Effective Rent Growth - Annually 3.3% 2.5% 2.4% 3.0% 3.3% 6.0% 5.6% 2.8% 2.7% 3.0% 3.8% 3.0%

Effective Rent Growth - Quarterly 0.2% 1.5% 1.3% -0.1%

Occupancy Rate 94.8% 95.0% 95.1% 94.9% 94.9% 95.4% 95.2% 95.0% 94.7% 95.0% 95.3% 95.0%

Occupancy Change - Annually -0.7% -0.6% -0.2% 0.3% 0.4% 0.7% -0.2% -0.3% -0.3% 0.3% 0.3% -0.3%

Occupancy Change - Quarterly 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% -0.2%

Economic Concessions Concession Value $-7.19 $-5.49 $-4.01 $-5.33 $-7.78 $-3.74 $-4.46

As a % of Asking Rent -0.6% -0.5% -0.4% -0.5% -0.7% -0.4% -0.4%

COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL MULTIFAMILY ADVISORY GROUP P. 2www.ColliersMultifamilyEast.com

RECENT SALESDate Property Name Address City Units Year Built Price in $ $/Units

Dec-17 Landmark at Savoy Square 2065 N Highland Ave Clearwater 182 1970 / 2009 17,836,000.00 98,000

Dec-17 Urban Style Flats 300 10th St S St. Petersburg 481 1971 / 2015 46,250,000.00 96,154

Dec-17 Havana Square 400 N Rome Ave Tampa 274 2017 58,088,000.00 212,000

Dec-17 Oakbrook Village 2225 Nursery Rd Clearwater 281 1970 / 2002 25,800,000.00 91,815

Dec-17 Lantower Brandon Crossroads

10440 Sanderling Shores Dr Brandon 450 2016 94,000,000.00 208,889

Dec-17 Colonial Village 3404 W Marlin Ave Tampa 220 13,700,000.00 62,273

Dec-17 Jasmine Terrace 1250 Skipper Rd University 320 1973 / 1983 14,880,000.00 46,500

Nov-17 Coachman Club 650-730 Old Coachman Rd Clearwater 72 1985 8,200,000.00 113,889

Nov-17 Tortuga Pointe 10475 Gandy Blvd N St. Petersburg 295 2010 48,000,000.00 162,712

Oct-17 The Retreat at Crosstown 10301 Marsh Harbor Way Brandon 320 1984 / 2002 37,250,000.00 116,406

Oct-17 Twenty 35 Apartments 2035 Phillippe Pkwy Safety Harbor 200 1974 / 2001 21,000,000.00 105,000

Oct-17 Bay Point 11431 Cockle Dr Port Richey 112 1985 / 1998 6,525,000.00 58,259

Oct-17 Park At Windsor 4949 Marbrisa Dr Carrollwood 224 1984 / 2001 26,500,000.00 118,304

Oct-17 Element 812 N Franklin St Tampa 395 2008 112,450,000.00 284,684

Oct-17 Seneca at Cypress Creek 1810 Sweetbroom Cir Wesley Chapel 451 2010 78,865,000.00 174,867

Oct-17 The Commons 3408 Lancaster Ct Egypt Lake-Leto

200 1972 / 1996 24,050,000.00 120,250

Oct-17 Brittany 3814 Euclid Ave Tampa 71 1969 / 2012 8,050,000.00 113,380

Oct-17 Colonial Oak 5255 62nd St N Kenneth City 60 1969 / 1981 4,915,000.00 81,917

Oct-17 Brittany 3814 Euclid Ave Tampa 71 1969 8,050,000 101,807

Oct-17 Colonial Oak 5255 62nd St N Kenneth City 60 1969 4,915,000 168,269


Multifamily Absorption and Supply

Annual 4Q17 Annual Forecast

2014 2015 2016 Market National 2017 2018F 2019F 2020F 2021F

Total Units Absorbed 6,713 5,620 1,730 5,284 367,785 5,203 3,615 5,459 3,565 1,426

New Supply 4,012 3,987 4,704 4,646 365,158 4,646 5,283 4,025 2,699 3,264

Inventory Growth 1.3% 1.3% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.6% 1.2% 0.8% 1.0%

Market Employment and Permitting

Annual November-17 Annual Forecast

2014 2015 2016 Market National 2017 2018F 2019F 2020F 2021F

Employment (000s) 1,208.4 1,250.9 1,296.8 1,355.5 148,507.0 1,331.4 1,355.7 1,377.8 1,404.6 1,427.9

Job Gain (000s) 32.0 42.5 45.9 30.6 2,114.0 34.6 24.3 22.0 26.9 23.3

Job Growth (%) 2.7% 3.5% 3.7% 2.3% 1.4% 2.7% 1.8% 1.6% 2.0% 1.7%

Total Residential Permitting 12,427 15,283 17,180 16,629 1,155,517 18,031 16,263 18,107 20,890 18,764

Relative Change 3.4% 23.0% 12.4% 3.2% 6.3% 5.0% -9.8% 11.3% 15.4% -10.2%

Single Family Units Permitted 7,269 9,046 10,683 11,816 756,569

Relative Change -0.8% 24.4% 18.1% 20.1% 10.2%

Multifamily Units Permitted 4,896 6,044 6,332 4,735 366,148

Relative Change 9.8% 23.4% 4.8% -22.5% -1.3%

Multifamily as a % of Total 39.4% 39.5% 36.9% 28.5% 31.7%

Demand/Supply Ratio Job Gain / Total Residential Units Permitted 2.7 3.4 3.0 1.9 1.9 2.0 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.1

Job Gain / Single Family Units Permitted 4.4 5.8 5.1 3.1 3.1

Job Gain / Multifamily Units Permitted 7.2 8.7 7.6 5.0 5.7

SUPPLY AND DEMANDAccording to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, job growth in Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL Metro Area was 2.3% in November 2017, reflecting 30,600 jobs added during a 12-month period. The metro job growth figure was above the national number of 1.4%.

Axiometrics forecasts Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL Metro Area’s job growth to be 1.8% in 2018, with 24,285 jobs added. Job growth is expected to average 1.7% from 2019 to 2021, with an average of 24,080 jobs added each year.

On the supply side, permits for 4,759 multifamily units were issued in the 12 months ending in November 2017, down -1,573 units from the prior year’s sum. In terms of total residential housing, 17,656 units were permitted in the 12 months ending November 2017, an increase of 476 units from the prior year’s total.


IDENTIFIED SUPPLYAs of January 15, 2018, Axiometrics has identified 4,495 apartment units scheduled for delivery in 2017, which all units have been delivered. As a comparison, there were 3,231 apartment units delivered in 2016. Properties delivered to the market in the last 12 months have achieved an average asking rent of $1,739 per unit, or $1.78 per square foot. Effective rent has averaged $1,641, or $1.68 per square foot, resulting in an average concession value of $-98.09. As a comparison, existing properties in the market had an average asking rent of $1,153 per unit ($1.22 per square foot) and an average effective rent of $1,148 per unit, or $1.21 per square foot, in 4Q17. Concessions for existing properties averaged $-5.33.

Submarket Delivery Schedule

Pipeline Delivery Schedule Pipeline Lease Up Trend

Units Absorbed Asking Rent Effective Rent

Top Submarkets 2015 2016 2017 Total Totals PPM Per Unit PSF Per Unit PSF Central Tampa 768 799 2,232 3,799 1,278 14 $2,045 $2.09 $1,884 $1.93

Clearwater 379 47 278 704 134 11 $1,400 $1.68 $1,303 $1.56

North St. Petersburg 48 288 336 108 18 $1,403 $1.54 $1,359 $1.49

South Hillsborough County 260 250 292 802 231 18 $1,386 $1.41 $1,315 $1.34

University North 144 418 562 398 20 $1,422 $1.41 $1,339 $1.33

Other 2,136 1,943 987 5,066 985 12 $1,629 $1.64 $1,587 $1.60

Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL 3,543 3,231 4,495 11,269 3,134 14 $1,749 $1.79 $1,646 $1.69*Based on 2017 deliveries *Trend based on a trailing 12 month period


DOWNTOWN ST. PETERSBURG

DOWNTOWN TAMPA

Key

Lease-Up

Under Construction

Proposed

GREATER TAMPA

Downtown Tampa

PIPELINE MAP

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1

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3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

1415

1617

Downtown St. Petersburg

19

20

21

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25

2627

28

29

3013

31

3233

34

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4243

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4647

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5354

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57


PIPELINE DETAIL# Name Status Owner Address Market UnitsProposed1 First North Lofts Proposed DevMar Development, LLC 1636 2nd St N Historic Old Northeast MF 2142 Grand Bohemian Apartments Proposed Greenfield Partners LLC N 2nd St Downtown St Petersburg

MF306

3 211 3rd St S Proposed American Land Ventures 211 3rd St S Downtown St Petersburg MF

201

4 Proposed MF/Office Proposed Skyway Capital Partners 2907 W Bay to Bay Blvd Bayshore Gardens/Palma Ce

125

5 MetWest Apartments Proposed MetLife, Inc. 4050 W Boy Scout Blvd Carver City-Lincoln Garde 2546 1601 Central Ave Proposed M Squared Property Inc 1601 Central Ave University Park MF 2417 6132 Commercial Way Proposed CSC Properties, Inc. 6132 Commercial Way Outer Hernando County

MF86

8 Shadetree Proposed Sunsar Capital Cypress Village Blvd Outer Southeast Tampa MF

260

9 200 E Madison St Proposed Urban Core Holdings LLC 200 E Madison St Uptown Tampa MF 12010 5th Ave Residences Proposed The Richman Group 555 Martin Luther King Jr. St Campbell Park MF 13211 815 Water St Proposed Strategic Property Partners 815 Old Water St Downtown Tampa MF 48012 Meres Crossing Apartments Proposed DDA Development 1250 S Pinellas Ave Tarpon Springs MF 23613 3015 N Rocky Point Dr Proposed BBC Rocky Point, LLC 3015 N Rocky Point Dr Outer Central Tampa MF 25814 The Pointe of Westshore Proposed Shamrock Realty Advisors S Westshore Blvd & W Pres Port Tampa City MF 35215 Waterside West Apartments Proposed IMDC Acquisitions 5320 S West Shore Blvd Sun Bay South MF 19216 Marina Pointe Proposed BTI Partners Westshore Ave Sun Bay South MF 43117 West Bay Lofts Proposed Gary Saul Tave 600 W Bay Dr Old Northwest MF 123

Units 4,011

Under Construction18 Halycon Apartments Under Construction David A. Mack Properties, LLC 225 1st Ave Downtown St Petersburg

MF306

19 Avanti Under Construction The NRP Group, LLC 201 4th Ave S Downtown St Petersburg MF

366

20 Haven 46 Under Construction Haven Campus Communities-tampa

14500 N 46th St University Square MF 158

21 The Alexander at Countryside - Phase II

Under Construction Alexander Investments International, Inc

2524 Alexander Pl North Clearwater MF 258

22 The Addison on Long Bayou Under Construction ContraVest 10260 Bayou Grande Ave South Seminole MF 24723 Palms of Pinellas Under Construction Pinellas County Housing Authority 13101 S Belcher Rd Pinellas Park MF 10224 Vue at Belleair Under Construction Flournoy Companies 2517 Belleair Rd South Clearwater MF 33925 Burlington Post Under Construction Green Mills 3201 Burlington Ave Central Plaza MF 8626 801 Central Ave Under Construction 801 Central-st Pete Llc 801 Central Ave Downtown St Petersburg

MF369

27 930 Central Flats Under Construction The Bainbridge Companies 930 Central Ave University Park MF 21828 The Strand Under Construction The Strand 1100 Cleveland St Downtown Clearwater MF 13229 11363 Countryway Blvd Under Construction Pleasants Corp 11363 Countryway Blvd Westchase MF 11330 Seazen Under Construction ZOM, Inc. 7616 W Courtney Campbell

CswyOuter Central Tampa MF 323

31 Cortana South Tampa Under Construction Gries Investments Inc 5145 S Dale Mabry Hwy Sun Bay South MF 30032 Novel Riverwalk Under Construction Crescent Communities, LLC 100 W Fortune Dr Uptown Tampa MF 39533 Nine15 Under Construction H. J. Russell & Company 915 N Franklin St Uptown Tampa MF 36234 Westshore Marina District Under Construction The Related Group of Florida 5000-5098 W Gandy St Sun Bay South MF 39635 Altis Wiregrass Ranch Under Construction The Altman Companies 28878 Golden Vista Blvd Wesley Chapel MF 37336 Altis Grand Central Under Construction The Altman Companies 548 W Grand Central Ave Alice Kelly's MF 31437 Canopy at Citrus Park Under Construction Arlington Properties 6835 Gunn Hwy Citrus Park MF 31838 Oasis at Highwoods Preserve Under Construction Picerne Real Estate Group 18300 Highwoods Preserve

PkyWest Meadows MF 295

39 Park at Wellington - Phase II Under Construction Rieger, Matthew 4311 Jordana Way Northwest Holiday MF 11040 Parker's Landing Under Construction Cortland Partners 6348 Longboat Blvd Tampa Shores MF 347


PIPELINE DETAIL, cont.41 Main Street Landing Under Construction Onicx 5500 Main St Town of New Port Richey

M80

42 Lakeside Walk at Bexley Under Construction Epoch Pasco Apartments, LLC 17049 Mentmore Blvd Outer Pasco County MF 30043 Mystic Pointe Under Construction Rane Property Management, LLC 2770 Mystic Pointe Pky Outer Pasco County MF 25244 Tessera of Brandon Under Construction Srh Dev Llc 1320 Oakfield Dr Brandon MF 13845 The Pearl Under Construction Soho Capital 2110 N Ola Ave Tampa Heights MF 30046 Hammock Ridge II Under Construction Housing Trust Group 8234 Omaha Cir Outer Hernando County

MF92

47 Hammock Ridge Under Construction Housing Trust Group 8274 Omaha Cir Outer Hernando County MF

104

48 Manor Riverwalk Under Construction The Related Companies 202 S Parker St Alice Kelly's MF 40049 Dunedin Commons Under Construction Dunedin Commons Llc 375 Patricia Ave Dunedin MF 28050 The Tempo at Encore Under Construction JMG Realty, Inc. 1102 Ray Charles Blvd South Nebraska MF 20451 Lenox of Bloomingdale Under Construction The Richman Group of Florida, Inc. 5910 Robert Tolle Dr Brandon MF 24052 5 Oaks at Westchase Under Construction Flournoy Companies 10006 Sheldon Rd Citrus Park MF 21853 The Channel Club Under Construction ECI Group 1115 E Twiggs St Channel District MF 32354 AER in the Arts District Under Construction Crescent Communities, LLC 259 W Tyler St Uptown Tampa MF 34455 The Village - Phase II Under Construction Capstone Companies 13300 Usf Palm Dr Temple Terrace MF 74056 Bainbridge West Shore

ApartmentsUnder Construction The Bainbridge Companies 5220 S West Shore Blvd Sun Bay South MF 351

57 Westshore Ave Under Construction BTI Partners Westshore Ave Sun Bay South MF 476Units 11,069

Total Units 15,080

# Name Status Owner Address Market Units


Venue at Lakewood RanchSarasota, FLUnits: 237

VENUE AT LAKEWOOD RANCH | Sarasota, FL

CHALLENGE: The challenge for this property was to sell prior to stabilization, and upon 65% occupancy in a market that no longer supports pre-sales.

STRATEGY & RESULTS: To sell this community, which was still under construction, our team was able to leverage our years of experience in order to match the seller with a buyer whose tastes in property acquisition met those of the property.

The East Region Multifamily Advisor Group provided Broker representation to both the buyer and seller. Additionally, We provided the clients with market research, property marketing, and assisted through all negotiations. We were successful in achieving the highest price on record in the Sarasota market, even prior to stabilization.

CLIENT: Davis Development UNITS: 237

OUR PROVEN TRACK RECORDRecent Closings

Grandville on SaxonOrange City, FLUnits: 316

San Marin ApartmentsTampa, FLUnits: 193

Grand Reserve at Park IsleClearwater, FLUnits: 390

WHO WE AREOne of the largest and most

experienced teams of multifamily

specialists in the industry

Units sold since 2011

39,000MORE THAN

Group gross transaction value in since 2011

$2.8B

Dedicated Multifamily Professionals & Advisors

50MORE THAN

Expansive geographic footprint

24COVERING OVER

STATES


WE CAN HELPAs an investor in multifamily properties, you need a firm that provides experience, broad reach and the ability to market an asset no matter how challenging the economic environment. You need a team that specializes in your market you need The East Region Multifamily Advisory Group.

Colliers International has one of the largest and most experienced teams in the industry, strategically located in key markets throughout North America. Our combination of market dominance, expertise, and singular focus, make us uniquely successful in helping our clients achieve their disposition objectives.

How are we able to bring together the skills and tools necessary to complete challenging assignments? Our East Region Multifamily Advisory Group is connected by purpose and focus. Our team is dedicated to sharing information on market opportunities, capital sources and buyers/sellers to achieve the best results for our clients.

www.ColliersMultifamilyEast.com

To learn more, scan this with a QR code reader or visit:

Craig BrownSENIOR ASSOCIATE | EAST [email protected] +1 407 312 9349

Will MathewsSENIOR VICE PRESIDENT | PRINCIPAL | EAST REGION

[email protected] +1 404 877 9285

AT YOUR SERVICE

Payton HerschbergerASSOCIATE | EAST REGION

[email protected] +1 404 574 1061

research & forecast report...research & forecast report tampa q4 2017 | multifamily source:...

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