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Digital archives and research tools: strategies for accessing knowledge

(Rome,10November2017)

On10November2017,theBankofItalyhostedaseminaron‘Digitalarchivesand

research tools: strategies for accessing knowledge’ at the Carlo Azeglio Ciampi

Centre for Monetary and Financial Education. The seminar was organized by

Associazione ITALE together with the Paolo BafAi Library of the Bank of Italy to

describe how the Bank’s institutional archives were enhanced by the use of

advanced technologies and to share information on best practices in designing

digital architectures that can be accessed over the internet. Those in attendance

includedrepresentativesofuniversitylibrariesandof Italianandforeignresearch

centres, who analysed the potential areas for development and the problems

related to research and remote access tools. Emmanuele Somma, from the Paolo

BafAiLibrary,spokeonthetopicof‘Freesoftwarefordigitalarchives’.Theseminar

documentationcanbefoundontheAssociazioneITALEwebsite.

_______________________________________________________________

Along the ‘narrow path’. Subnational governments in times of crisis

(Rome,4December2017)

On4December2017theBankofItalyhostedaseminaronlocalpublicAinance,with

particular reference to subnational tax autonomy, expenditure consolidation and

accounting rules,with the aimof stimulating a discussion about the efAiciency and

equity implicationsofdecentralization,whichisgainingrenewedmomentuminthe

publicdebate.

MoreinformationisavailableontheBankofItalywebsite.

Highlights 1

Forthcoming events 2

Latest Working Papers 4

Latest Occasional Papers 9

Notes on Financial Stability and Supervision 16

Economic History Working Papers 17

Selection of Journal articles and books 18

Useful links 23

Co

nte

nts

RESEARCHATTHEBANKOFITALY

DIRECTORATEGENERALFORECONOMICS,STATISTICSANDRESEARCH

Highlights

NUMBER 49

FEBRUARY 2018

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Forthcomingevents

BankofItalyMicrosimulationWorkshop

(Rome,23February2018)

Microsimulation models are useful tools to evaluate the distributive effects of tax and expenditure

programmes.Theirdevelopmentandmaintenancerequireasigni<icantinvestmentintermsofdataand

computationowing to thehigh levelofdetail required toreplicate the institutional framework.On23

February 2018 the Bank of Italy will host an international workshop on microsimulation that will

address themethodological issues relating to the building, improvement and use ofmicrosimulation

models.Furthermore,speci<icmodels–someofwhichaimedatstudyingasinglecountry,otherswitha

multi-countryscope–willbeanalysedindetail.Besidesfocusingontechnicalissues,theworkshopwill

also includemore substantive, policy-oriented sessions, in which changes to the tax-bene<it systems

(either already enacted or still at the proposal stage) will be discussed. The programme features a

keynotespeechbyOlivierBargain(BordeauxUniversity)titled:‘Microsimulationandwelfareanalysis:

presentandfuture’.

MoreinformationwillbeavailablesoonontheBankofItalywebsite.

_______________________________________________________________

Workshopon‘HumanCapital’

(Rome,2March2018)

TheBankofItalyispleasedtoannounceaworkshopon‘HumanCapital’tobeheldon2March2018.

Themeetingwillbringtogetherleadingeconomistsandyoungresearcherstodiscusstheroleplayed

by the accumulation of knowledge, skills and ability as a key driver of productivity and economic

growth,withanemphasisonmicromechanismsandpolicyimplications.

Moreinformationisavailablehere.

_______________________________________________________________

Labourmarketparticipation:Forcesatworkandpolicychallenges

(Rome,15-16March2018)

TheBankofItalyandtheCEPRareorganizingaconferenceon"Labourmarketparticipation:Forcesat

workandpolicychallenges". Theeventwill takeplaceon15-16March2018attheBankof

ItalyheadquartersinRome.Thepatternsoflabourmarketparticipationhaverecentlystartedto

divergeacrossadvancedeconomies,re<lectingstructuralanddemographicfactorsaswellasthe

long term legacies of the Great Recession, whose impact has been felt differently across

countries.Afullunderstandingoflaboursupplydeterminantsiskeytogaugethecyclicalresponseof

labourmarketstoshocks,butalsotoanticipatethegrowthprospectsofeachcountry,andthe

degreeofitssocialinclusiveness.Theconferenceaimstoprovideresearcherswithanopportunityto

presenttheoreticalandempiricalresearchrelatedtotheseissues.

Forfurtherdetails,seehere.

_______________________________________________________________

20thBancad’ItaliaWorkshoponPublicFinance

(Rome,21-23March2018)

The20thBancad’ItaliaWorkshoponPublicFinancewillbeheldinRomeon21-23March2018.The

eventwillfocusontwomainareas:(1)reformoftheeuroareainstitutionalarchitecture,discussing

issues such as the strengthening of the European Stability Mechanism, the creation of a <inance

ministryfor theeuroarea,and thedesirabilityofsovereigndebtrestructuringmechanisms,and(2)

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thedesignoftax-bene-itpoliciesinadvancedcountries.Moreover,theworkshopwillexploretowhat

extentinternationalcooperation–mostnotablyatEUlevel–canhelptoaddressthechallengesposed

byglobalizationandtechnologicalprogress.

MoreinformationwillbeavailablesoonontheBankofItalywebsite.

___________________________________________________________

1st Biennial Bank of Italy and Bocconi University conference on

‘Financial stability and Regulation’

(Rome,5-6April2018)

TheBankofItalyandBocconiUniversity–BAFFICAREFINareorganizingthe-irstbiennialconference

on‘FinancialstabilityandRegulation’.Theeventwilltakeplaceon5-6April2018attheheadquarters

oftheBankofItalyinRome.Theaimoftheconferenceistobringtogetherleadingworldscholarsand

policy-makers inorder todiscuss topics related to -inancial stability, -inancial sector regulationand

theuseofmacroprudentialpolicies.ItayGoldstein(WhartonSchool,UniversityofPennsylvania)and

AtifMian(PrincetonUniversity)willdeliverthekeynotelectures.

Forfurtherdetailsseehere.

_______________________________________________________________

Sixth CEPR Economic History Symposium

(Rome,22-24June2018)

ThesixthCEPREconomicHistorySymposiumwilltakeplaceinRome,22-24June2018.Theeventwill

be organised by Stephen Broadberry (Nuf-ield College and CEPR) and Alfredo Gigliobianco (Banca

d’Italia). The symposium aims to bring together leading researchers in the -ield. Papers are being

soughtontopicsincluding,butnotnecessarilylimitedto:1)Macroeconomicand-inancialhistory;2)

Economic growth in the very long run: demographic and technological factors; 3) Institutions and

economicdevelopment;4)Thehistoryoftheinternationaleconomy.Onehalfdaywillbedevotedtoa

policy session, exploringways inwhich economic history can provide lessons for today’s economic

challenges.ThedeadlinefortheCallforPapersisMonday19February2018,18:00GMT.

ForfurtherdetailsseetheCallforPapers.

____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

S&'()*+, *- -.& B*)/ 01 I-*23

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Forthcoming events

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No.1164:Are lenders using risk-based pricing in the consumer loan market? The effects of the 2008 crisis (January2018)

SilviaMagri

ThispaperanalyzeswhetherinItalythepriceofconsumerloansisbasedonborrowerspeciAic

risk.MispricingcouldthreatAinancialstability

throughnegativeeffectsonlenders'proAitability;

risk-basedpricingalsoleadstoamoreefAicient

allocationofcreditthroughlowerpricesforlow-risk

borrowers,withpositiveeffectsoneconomic

growthandAinancialstability.Theevidence

availablefromdatacollectedsince2006throughthe

SurveyonHouseholdIncomeandWealthshows

thatconsumerloanpricinghasbeenmorerisk-

basedafterthe2008Ainancialcrisis.Households’

economicandAinancialconditions(netwealth,

numberofincomeearnersandeducationofthe

householdhead)becamesigniAicantand

economicallyimportantininAluencingtheinterest

ratesin2010-12.Thesearealsothemostimportant

driversoftheprobabilityofdelinquencyon

consumerloans;lendersalsofocusonthese

variablesinselectingborrowers.Asaconsequence

ofthe2008crisis,lendershavethereforepaidmore

attentiontoborrowers'creditrisknotonlyduring

theselectionprocess,butalsoindecidingtheprice

oftheloan.

Fulltext(pdf)

No.1163:What will Brexit mean for the

British and euro area economies? A model-based assessment of trade regimes (January2018)

MassimilianoPisaniandFilippoVergaraCaffarelli

ThispaperevaluatesthemacroeconomiceffectsontheUKandtheeuroareaofanincreasein

tradetariffsassociatedwithBrexit,bysimulatinga

dynamicgeneralequilibriummodeloftheUK,the

euroarea,andtherestoftheworld(RW).Our

resultsareasfollows:Airst,theimpositionoftariffs

reducesUKexportsandeconomicactivitybyanon-

negligibleamount;second,themacroeconomic

costsfortheUKarereducedifitdecidesunilaterally

nottoincreasetariffsonimportsfromtheeuroarea

andtoreducethoseonimportsfromtheRW;third,

themacroeconomiccostsareparticularlyhighifthe

lowerUKtradeopennessresultingfromthe

impositionoftariffsreducestheUK’stotalfactor

productivity;andfourth,Brexithasnegative,but

quitelimited,effectsoneuro-areaeconomicactivity.

Fulltext(pdf)

No.1162:Real exchange rate misalignments in the euro area (January2018)

MichaelFidora,ClaireGiordanoandMartinSchmitz

Buildinguponabehaviouralequilibriumexchangerate(BEER)model,estimatedata

quarterlyfrequencysince1999onabroadsample

of57countries,thispaperassesseswhetherboth

thesizeandpersistenceofrealeffectiveexchange

ratemisalignmentsfromthelevelsimpliedby

economicfundamentalshavebeenaffectedbythe

adoptionofasinglecurrency.Acomparisonofreal

misalignmentsacrossdifferentcountrygroupings

(euroarea,non-euroarea,advancedandemerging

economies),showstheyaresmallerintheeuroarea

thaninitsmaintradingpartners.However,inthe

euroarearealdisequilibriaarealsomorepersistent,

althoughaftertheglobalAinancialcrisisthe

reactivityofrealexchangeratestopast

misalignmentsincreased,andthereforethe

persistencedecreased.Intheabsenceofthe

nominaladjustmentchannel,animprovementinthe

qualityofregulationandinstitutionsisfoundto

reducethepersistenceofrealexchangerate

misalignments,plausiblybyremovingrealrigidities.

Fulltext(pdf)

No.1161:Please in my back yard: the private and public beneHits of a new tram line in Florence (January2018)

ValeriiaBudiakivskaandLucaCasolaro

Urbanagglomerations,revealingthehighestlevelsofproductivityandgrowth,raisesevere

congestionproblems.Thisissuecanbemitigatedby

theconstructionoftransportfacilitiesallowinga

highercentre-suburbspermeability.Thereturnsof

similarinfrastructuresareunderdebate,especially

incitiescharacterizedbyhugeartisticand

urbanisticconstraints.Thepurposeofthispaperis

toestimatetheprivateandpublicbeneAitsofanew

tramlinerecentlybuiltinFlorence.Weapplythe

syntheticcontrolmethodonmetropolitanmicro-

zonesinordertoestimatetheimpactofthefacility

onhousepricesinthesuburbslocatedclosetothe

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tramstops.Wealsoestimateahedonicpricing

modelonindividualbidsdownloadedfroma

popularrealestateagency.Theresults,coherentin

bothapproaches,demonstratethathouseslocated

inproximitytothenewtramnetworkregistera

priceincreaseof200-300eurospersquaremeter,

the7-10percentofthetotalvalue.Thestudyalso

conAirmsthepresenceofpublicbeneAitsrelatedto

thefacilityintermsofaccidentsreductionand

improvedairquality.

Fulltext(pdf)

No.1160:Pairwise trading in the money market during the European sovereign debt crisis (December2017)

EdoardoRainone

Thispaperstudiesover-the-counter(OTC)tradingintheunsecuredinterbankmarket

foreurofunds.Thegoalofouranalysisisto

identifythedeterminantsoftheprobabilityof

trading,thebilateralrateandthequantity

exchangedduringtheEuropeansovereigndebt

crisis.WeshowhowthespeciAicfeaturesofthis

marketbringtoanon-standardestimation

framework.Adyadiceconometricmodelwith

shadowratesisproposedtocontrolforpossibly

endogenousmatchingwiththecounterparty.A

uniquedatasetcontainingbankscharacteristics

andbilateraltradesisbuiltandusedtostudythe

evolutionoftradingpatterns.Theestimates

bringmildevidencetowardstheexistenceof

shadowrates.Activemonitoringdecreased

marketaccesstolowequityandilliquid

borrowers,whiledispersioninratesand

quantitiesismainlydrivenbybanks'nationality,

especiallyduringthepeakofthecrisis.

Fulltext(pdf)

No.1159:Banks’ maturity transformation: risk, reward, and policy (December2017)

PierluigiBologna

Theaimofthispaperistwofold:Airst,tostudy

thedeterminantsofbanks’netinterestmargin

withaparticularfocusontheroleofmaturity

transformation,usinganewmeasureofmaturity

mismatch;second,toanalysetheimplicationsfor

banksoftherelaxationofabindingprudential

limitonmaturitymismatch,inplaceinItalyuntil

themid-2000s.Theresultsshowthatmaturity

transformationisanimportantdriverofthenet

interestmargin,ashighermaturitytransformation

istypicallyassociatedwithhighernetinterest

margin.However,thereisalimittothispositive

relationshipas‘excessive’maturitytransformation

—evenwithoutleadingtosystemicvulnerabilities

—hassomeundesirableimplicationsintermsof

higherexposuretointerestrateriskandlowernet

interestmargin.

Fulltext(pdf)

No.1158:Targeting policy-compliers with

machine learning: an application to a tax rebate programme in Italy (December2017)

MonicaAndini,EmanueleCiani,GuidodeBlasio,

AlessioD’IgnazioandViolaSalvestrini

MachineLearning(ML)canbeapowerfultooltoinformpolicydecisions.Thosewho

aretreatedunderaprogrammemighthave

differentpropensitiestoputintopracticethe

behaviourthatthepolicymakerwantsto

incentivize.MLalgorithmscanbeusedtopredict

thepolicy-compliers;thatis,thosewhoaremost

likelytobehaveinthewaydesiredbythe

policymaker.Whenthedesignoftheprogramme

istailoredtotargetthepolicy-compliers,the

overalleffectivenessofthepolicyisincreased.

ThispaperproposesanapplicationofML

targetingthatusesthemassivetaxrebate

scheme(“80euro”)introducedinItalyin2014.

Fulltext(pdf)

No.1157:The CSPP at work: yield heterogeneity and the portfolio rebalancing channel

(December2017)

AndreaZaghini

Weassesstheimpactofthecorporatesector

purchaseprogramme(CSPP),the

corporatearmoftheECB’squantitativeeasing

policy,initsAirstyearofactivity(June2016–

May2017).Focusingontheprimarybond

market,weAindevidenceofasigniAicantimpact

oftheCSPPonyieldspreads,bothdirectlyon

targetedbondsandindirectlyviatheportfolio

rebalancingchannel.Whilespreadsoneligible

bondshavedeclinedsincethestartofthe

programme(by60basispointsin2016),non-

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eligiblebondsremainedunaffecteduntil2017,

whentheentirecorporatemarketrecordeda

furtherdeclineinspreadsof56basispoints.

Fulltext(pdf)

No.1156:Secular stagnation, R&D, public investment and monetary policy: a global-model perspective(December2017)

PietroCova,PatrizioPagano,Alessandro

NotarpietroandMassimilianoPisani

Weevaluatetheglobalmacroeconomiceffects

ofAiscalandmonetarypolicymeasuresto

counterbalancesecularstagnationbysimulatinga

Aive-regionNewKeynesianmodeloftheworld

economy,calibratedtotheUnitedStates(US),the

euroarea(EA),Japan(JP),China(CH),andtherest

oftheworld(RW).Themodelincludesinvestment

inresearchanddevelopment(R&D)asafactor

thataffectsglobalgrowth.OurmainAindingsareas

follows.First,anegativeefAiciencyshocktoR&Din

themainadvancedeconomiespartiallyreplicates

theobservedslowdowninlong-termglobal

growthandthedecreaseininterestrates.Second,

inthemedium-andlong-term,theincreaseinUS

publicinvestmentfavoursglobalgrowth;inthe

short-term,itstimulatesUSeconomicactivitybut

reducesforeignactivity.Third,intheUSan

accommodativemonetarystance,whichprovokes

thecrowding-ineffect,ampliAiestheshort-term

macroeconomiceffectivenessofpublicinvestment,

withoutinducingadditionalnegativespillovers.

Fourth,EA,JP,andCH,bysimultaneously

increasingpublicinvestmentandadoptingan

accommodativemonetarypolicy,counterbalance

USshort-runnegativespilloversandfurther

enhancelong-termworldgrowth.

Fulltext(pdf)

No.1155:Optimal monetary policy and Hiscal interactions in a non-Ricardian economy (December2017)

MassimilianoRigonandFrancescoZanetti

Thispaperstudiesoptimaldiscretionary

monetarypolicyanditsinteractionwithAiscal

policyinaNewKeynesianmodelwithAinitely-

livedconsumersandgovernmentdebt.Optimal

discretionarymonetarypolicyinvolvesdebt

stabilizationtoreduceconsumptiondispersion

acrosscohortsofconsumers.Thewelfare

relevanceofdebtstabilizationisproportionalto

thedebt-to-outputratioandinverselyrelatedto

thehouseholdsprobabilityofsurvivalthataffects

thehousehold’spropensitytoconsumeout

Ainancialwealth.Debtstabilizationbiasimplies

thatdiscretionaryoptimalpolicyissuboptimal

comparedwiththeinAlationtargetingrulethat

fullystabilizestheoutputgapandtheinAlation

ratewhileleavingdebttofreelyAluctuatein

responsetodemandshocks.

Fulltext(pdf)

No.1154:Capital controls,

macroprudential measures and monetary policy interactions in an emerging economy (December2017)

ValerioNispiLandi

Arecapitalcontrolsandmacroprudential

measuresdesirableinanemergingeconomy?

Howdotheseinstrumentsinteractwithmonetary

policy?IaddressthesequestionsinaDSGEmodel

foranemergingeconomywhosebanksare

indebtedinforeigncurrency.Themodelis

augmentedwithAinancialfrictions.Themain

resultsareasfollows.First,capitalcontrolsand

macroprudentialpoliciesareabletomitigatethe

adverseeffectsofanincreaseintheforeign

interestrate.Secondthedesirabilityofthese

measuresisshockdependent.Third,capital

controlsandmonetarypolicyarecomplementary

inaddressingthetrade-offbetweeninAlationand

AinancialAluctuations.

Fulltext(pdf)

No.1153:Systemic risk and systemic importance measures during the crisis (December2017)

SergioMasciantonioandAndreaZaghini

Systemicriskandsystemicimportancearetwodifferentconceptsthatcameoutofthecrisisand

arenowwidelyemployedtoassessthepotential

impactonthebankingsystemasawholeofshocks

thathitonespeciAicbank.However,thosetwo

measuresareoftenimproperlyusedand

misunderstandingsarise.Thispapershedslight

abouttheirmeaning,measurementandinformation

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content.Empirically,thetwomeasuresprovide

differentinformation;itisthereforeworthwhile

investigatingboth,sotohaveathorough

understandingofsinglenameandaggregate

systemicriskexposure.Inaddition,byrelyingon

thestandardriskmanagementperspective,we

proposehowtointegratesystemicimportanceand

systemicriskconcepts.Weprovidetwomeasuresof

systemicriskexposureandcomparethemtoSRISK.

Fulltext(pdf)

No.1152:International Hinancial Hlows and

the risk-taking channel (December2017)

PietroCovaandFilippoNatoli

Duringthe1990s,theincreasedpropensitytosaveinemergingmarketeconomies

triggeredmassiveinAlowstowardssafeassetsin

theUnitedStates;afewyearslater,risingdollar

fundingbyglobalbankswasconcurrentto

increasinginAlowstoprivate-labelUSsecurities.

WhileitiswelldocumentedthatforeignAinancial

AlowshaveeasedAinancingconditionsintheUS

throughthecompressionoflong-termyields,in

thispaperwealsoAindsigniAicanteffectsonthe

creditspreadandtheVIX,suggestingarelevant

riskappetitechannel.Moreover,Alowsintothe

UScorporatebondmarket,partlylinkedtothe

previoussavingglutinemergingeconomies,also

directlyaffectedbankleverage,household

indebtednessandthehousingmarket.This

evidenceprovidesanewperspectiveonthe

globalbankingglut,complementarytotheroleof

banksintherisk-takingchannelofmonetary

policy.

Fulltext(pdf)

No.1151:Fiscal policy uncertainty and the business cycle: time series evidence from Italy

(December2017)

AlessioAnzuini,LucaRossiandPietroTommasino

Economicuncertaintyisanimportantfactor

behindmacroeconomicAluctuations:inan

uncertainenvironment,Airmsreducehiringand

investment,Ainancialintermediariesaremore

reluctanttolendandhouseholdsincreasetheir

propensitytosave.Inthepresentpaper,westudy

theeffectsoftheuncertaintywhicharisesfrom

Aiscalpolicydecisions.Weproposeanewmeasure

ofAiscalpolicyuncertainty(FPU).Inparticular,we

estimateaAiscalreactionfunction,allowingthe

volatilityoftheshockstobetime-varying.Thetime

seriesofthisvolatilityisourproxyforFPU.

LookingatItaliandataovertheperiod1981-2014,

weAindthatanunexpectedincreaseinourFPU

measurehasanegativeimpactontheeconomy.

Oneimplicationofthisresultisthatthesame

changeinthegovernmentbudgetcanhave

differenteffectsdependingonwhetheritis

associatedwithareductionoranincreaseinFPU.

Therefore,theneglectofFPUmaypartlyexplain

whythesize(andsign)ofAiscalmultipliersdiffers

somuchacrossexistingempiricalstudies.

Fulltext(pdf)

No.1150:Public investment and monetary policy stance in the euro area

(December2017)

LorenzoBurlon,AlbertoLocarno,Alessandro

NotarpietroandMassimilianoPisani

Thispaperevaluatesthemacroeconomicimpactofaprogrammeforpublic

infrastructurespendingintheeuroarea(EA)under

alternativeassumptionsaboutfundingsourcesand

themonetarypolicystance.Thequantitative

assessmentismadebysimulatingadynamic

generalequilibriummodelofamonetaryunionwith

region-speciAicAiscalpolicy.Themainresultsarethe

following.First,EA-widestimuliaremoreeffective

thanunilateral(region-speciAic)stimuli.Second,

underEA-widestimulus,theAiscalmultiplierisclose

to2iftheforwardguidance(FG)ontheshort-term

policyrateholds.Third,ifthemonetaryauthority

keepsdownboththepolicyrates(withFG)andthe

long-terminterestrates(withquantitativeeasing),

theAiscalmultiplierexceeds3atpeakand

investmentspendingisself-Ainancing.Fourth,the

Ainancingmethodisrelevant:debtAinancing,

particularlyunderanaccommodativemonetary

policystanceandifthesovereignspreadsdonot

increase,ismoregrowth-friendlythantaxAinancing

intheshort-term(butnotinthelong-term).Fourth,

theeffectivenessoftheAiscalstimulusislargerif

governmentspendingisdirectedtowards

productivegoodsanditsimplementationoccurs

efAicientlyandwithoutdelays.

Fulltext(pdf)

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No.1149:Looking behind the Hinancial cycle: the neglected role of demographics (December2017)

AlessandroFerrari

DatademonstrateacorrelationbetweendemographicvariablesandAinancialcycle:an

increaseintheworking-agepopulationis

associatedwithanexpansionoftheAinancialcycle,

thatis,creditgrowthandincreasedhousingprices.

Toaccountforthisstylizedfact,thispaperusesan

OLGmodelwithdataonhousingprices,life-cycle

ofincome,andconsumption.Atransitorybaby

boom,whichincreasestheworking-age

population,leadstohigherhousingpricesand

householdborrowing.

Fulltext(pdf)

Latest Working Papers

Other recent Working Papers

October 2017

No. 1148:InvestmentdecisionsbyEuropean

AirmsandAinancingconstraints

AndreaMercatanti,TaneliMäkinenand

AndreaSilvestrini

No. 1147:ConsistentinferenceinAixed-effects

stochasticfrontiermodels

FedericoBelottiandGiuseppeIlardi

No. 1146:Internalcapitalmarketsintimesof

crisis:thebeneAitofgroupafAiliationinItaly

RaffaeleSantioni,FabioSchiantarelliand

PhilipE.Strahan

No. 1145:AFinancialConditionsIndexforthe

CEEeconomies

SimoneAuer

No. 1144:Leavingyourmamma:whysolate

inItaly?

EnricaDiStefano

No. 1143:CapitalmisallocationandAinancial

development:asector-levelanalysis

DanielaMarconiandChristianUpper

No. 1142:Monetarypolicyintimesofdebt

MarioPietruntiandFedericoM.Signoretti

No. 1141:Aquantitativeanalysisofrisk

premiainthecorporatebondmarket

SaraCecchetti

September 2017

No. 1140:NaturalratesacrosstheAtlantic

AndreaGeraliandStefanoNeri

No. 1139:Creditmisallocationduringthe

EuropeanAinancialcrisis

FabianoSchivardi,EnricoSetteandGuido

Tabellini

No. 1138:TonyAtkinsonandhislegacy

R.Aaberge,F.Bourguignon,A.Brandolini,F.

H.G.Ferreira,J.C.Gornick,J.Hills,M.Jäntti,

S.P.Jenkins,E.Marlier,J.Micklewright,B.

Nolan,T.Piketty,W.J.Radermacher,T.M.

Smeeding,N.H.Stern,J.StiglitzandH.

Sutherland

No. 1137:Onsecularstagnationandlow

interestrates:demographymatters

GiuseppeFerrero,MarcoGrossandStefano

Neri

No. 1136:Macroeconomiceffectsofnon-

standardmonetarypolicymeasuresinthe

euroarea:theroleofcorporatebond

purchases

AnnaBartocci,LorenzoBurlon,Alessandro

NotarpietroandMassimilianoPisani

No. 1135:Legislators'behaviourandelectoral

rules:evidencefromanItalianreform

GiuseppeAlbanese,MarikaCiof<iand

PietroTommasino

No. 1134:Creditdemandandsupply:atwo-

wayfeedbackrelation

UgoAlbertazziandLuciaEsposito

No. 1133:Therealeffectsofrelationship

lending

RyanBanerjee,LeonardoGambacortaand

EnricoSette

No. 1132:Lowfrequencydriversofthereal

interestrate:abandspectrumregression

approach

FabioBusettiandMicheleCaivano

No. 1131:Venturecapitalistsatwork:what

aretheeffectsontheAirmstheyAinance?

RaffaelloBronzini,GiampaoloCaramellino

andSilviaMagri

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No.423:Oil price and inHlation expectations (January2018)

CristinaCon<littiandRiccardoCristadoro

Inlinewithotherrecentstudies,weAindastatisticallysigniAicantimpactofoilprice

changesonlongruninAlationexpectationsinthe

euroareasincetheglobalAinancialcrisis.

However,overthesameperiod,(i)oilpricesco-

movedwitheconomicindicators,suchasstock

prices,and(ii)thecorrelationbetweenshortand

longrunexpectationsincreased.Oncethese

factorsaretakenintoaccount,theeffectofoil

pricesonlong-terminAlationexpectationsisno

longersigniAicant.Thissuggeststhatthelink

betweenoilpricesandlongterminAlation

expectationsisnotdirect,butrathertheresultof

underlyingfactors:theprolongedfeebleeconomic

conditionsandthepossiblede-anchoringoflong-

runinAlationexpectations.

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No.422:Productivity growth in Italy: a tale

of a slow-motion change (January2018)

MatteoBugamelli,FrancescaLotti(eds.),Monica

Amici,EmanuelaCiapanna,FabrizioColonna,

FrancescoD’Amuri,SilviaGiacomelli,Andrea

Linarello,FrancescoManaresi,GiulianaPalumbo,

FilippoScoccianti,EnricoSette

Productivityisthemainfactorholdingback

long-termeconomicgrowthinItaly.Sincethe

secondhalfofthe1990s,productivitygrowthhas

beenfeeblebothbyhistoricalstandardsand

comparedwiththeothermaineuroareacountries.

Understandingthereasonsforsuchaperformance

andAindingthemosteffectivepolicyleversiscrucial

toincreaseItaly’spotentialgrowthrate.Againstthis

background,weprovideadetailedanalysisofthe

dataandacriticalreviewoftheavailableempirical

evidencetoidentifyboththestructuralweaknesses

limitingproductivitygrowthandthestrengthsofthe

Italianproductivesystemthatmaysupportitlooking

forward.Sincetheendofthe1990sandmore

intensivelysincethesecondhalfof2011,thereform

efforthasbeenparticularlyeffectiveintheregulation

ofproductandlabormarketsandindustrialpolicy.

Onotherfactorswhichareveryrelevantfor

productivitydynamics,thereformactionhasbeen

lesseffectivesofar.

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No.421:Internal capital markets in Italian business groups: evidence from the Hinancial crisis (January2018)

RaffaeleSantioniandIlariaSupino

Usinguniquedetaileddata,wedescribetheroleofinternalcapitalmarketsinItalian

businessgroupsbeforeandaftertheAinancial

crisis,anexogenouseventwhichprovidesanideal

settingtoassesswhethertheworkingofinternal

capitalmarketshelpsgroup-afAiliatedAirmsto

mitigateexternalAinancialconstraints.Our

Aindingssupportthehypothesisthatinternal

capitalmarketsaretypicallyactivatedbyAirms

standingatthetopofthecontrolchaingiventheir

easieraccesstoexternalborrowing.Largerand

moreproAitableAirmsserveasinternalsuppliersof

capitalandsupportAinanciallyconstrainedgroup

membersthatstruggletostayviable.Wealso

showthatAirmsafAiliatedtolargeranddiversiAied

groupsbeneAitfromtheexistenceofinternal

mechanismsofresourcereallocationthatcan

substituteexternalAinancewhenitbecomesmore

expensiveandhardtoaccess.Duringthecrisis,

group-afAiliatedAirmsweremorelikelytosurvive

thanunafAiliatedAirms.

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No.420:Corporate liquidity in Italy and its

increase in the long recession (January2018)

DavideDottoriandGiacintoMicucci

Inthispaperweanalysetheevolutionovertimeandthedeterminantsofcorporate

liquidityinItaly,forwhichtheempirical

literatureisstillscant.Usingaverylarge

sampleofAirmsfortheperiod2002-15(about

460,000Airmsperyearonaverage),we

documentasubstantialincreaseincash

holdingssince2011.Weshowthattherisein

thecashratioismainlyrelatedtomacrofactors

commontoallAirms.Amongthesemacro

factors,astrongcorrelationemergeswiththe

loweropportunitycostofholdingcash,as

measuredbytheinterestratedecline.Wealso

assesstheroleofcashdeterminantsattheAirm

level,relatingthemtodifferentmotivesfor

holdingcash,suchasprecautionaryreasons,

transactioncosts,andtheeffectsofinformation

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asymmetriesinAinancialmarkets.AmongAirm-

speciAicfactors,theliquidityrisewasinitially

linkedprimarilytothefallininvestmentand

thentoimprovedcashAlowsandenhanced

deleveraging.

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No.419:Analyzing the structural transformation of commodity markets: Hinancialization revisited (January2018)

FilippoNatoli

TheAirstdecadeofthe21stcenturysawwideAluctuationsincommoditypricesanda

massivelyincreasedparticipationofAinancial

investorsinthecommodityderivativesmarkets.

Theinvestigationofwhetherthepresenceof

Ainancialinvestorswasresponsibleforthese

Aluctuations-and,moreingeneral,whether

largetradesaffectedfuturesandspotprices-

hasyieldedmixedresultsintheliterature.We

takeupthisquestionbylinkingAinancialization

totheongoingstructuraltransformationofthe

commoditymarkets.First,wediscussissues

relatedtotheidentiAicationofthepriceeffects

ofAinancialization;then,wepresentmodelsof

commoditymarketswithheterogeneousagents

andinformationalfrictionsanddiscusstherole

ofAinancialinvestorsasthecounterpartsof

commercialhedgers.Lastly,wesuggestsome

avenuesforfutureresearch,includingthe

possibleimplicationsoftheshalerevolution

andofthetradingofcommodityoptionsinthe

Ainancializationprocess.

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No.418:Interbank Payment System architecture from a Cyber Security perspective(January2018)

AntoninoFazioandFabioZuffranieri

Thispaperoutlineshowaparadigmshiftis

requiredwhenapproachingcyberrisk

managementforinterbankpaymentsystems,

whichareaffectedbythegrowing

interconnectednessofsystems,the

digitalizationofAinancialservicesand

continuouslyevolvingcyberthreats.Inthis

scenario,cyberthreatsmayderivefromawider

numberofactors,whoareconstantlyactiveon

theInternetandabletoexploitanincreasing

numberofvulnerabilitiesandattackvectorsto

achievetheirgoals.Financialinstitutionsshould

thereforeassumethatspeciAiccyberthreatscan

overcomeanydefence.Firstly,thepaper

outlinesthetheoreticalreasonsforthis

necessaryparadigmshift;secondly,itaimsto

highlighttheimportanceofallthestakeholders

instrengtheningthecyberresilienceof

paymentsystems,inparticularthecentraland

enablingroleofmessagingserviceoperators,by

providingananalysisofarealcasestudy,the

recentCentralBankofBangladeshcyberfraud;

andAinally,thepaperaimstoencourage

discussiononthenewparadigmandthe

adequacyofcurrentregulatoryframeworksand

supervisoryapproaches.

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No.417:Risks and challenges of complex

Hinancial instruments: an analysis of SSM banks (December2017)

R.RocaandF.Potente(coordinators),L.G.

Ciavoliello,A.Conciarelli,G.Diprizio,L.Lodi,R.

Mosca,T.Perez,J.Raponi,E.Sabatini,A.Schi<ino

WeinvestigatethevaluationriskaffectingAinancialinstrumentsclassiAiedasL2and

L3foraccountingpurposes.Theseare

instrumentsthatarenotdirectlytradedin

activemarketsandareoftenrelativelycomplex,

opaqueandilliquid.Thereisahugevolumeof

L2andL3instrumentsinthebalancesheetsof

SSMbanks(around€6.8trillionworth,

consideringbothassetsandliabilities).We

arguethatthecomplexityandopacityofthese

instrumentscreatesubstantialroomfor

discretionaryaccountingandprudentialchoices

byAinancialintermediaries,whichhave

incentivestousethisdiscretiontotheir

advantage.Thecurrentregulatoryreporting

standardisnotsufAicienttomakea

comprehensiveassessmentoftheoverallrisks

stemmingfromL2andL3instruments.We

highlightthattheseinstrumentssharesome

characteristicswithNPLs(illiquidity,opacity),

andarguethattherisktheyposemightalsobe

comparable.

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No.416:Recent developments of Italy's industrial relations system(December2017)

FrancescoD'AmuriandRaffaellaNizzi

Thearticlereviewstherecentdevelopments

ofItaly’sindustrialrelationssystem,

coveringbothbargainingrulesandoutcomes.An

increasingfragmentationisobservablein

collectivebargainingatthenationallevel,with

thespreadofnewagreementsamongstsmalland

recentlycreatedassociationsofworkersand

employers,leadingtolowerlaborcosts.Therole

ofdecentralizedbargaininghasremained

secondaryandsubordinatetotheprovisions

decidedatthenationallevel,althoughseveral-

graduallymoregenerous–taxbreakshavebeen

introducedinordertoencouragethediffusionof

Airm-levelwages.Givingdecentralized

bargainingagreaterroleinsettingwagesandin

labourorganizationwouldallowforabetter

alignmentofwagegrowthandincreasesin

productivity,relaxingsomeoftherigidityin

nationalbargaining,especiallyintermsofthe

durationofagreementsandoftheautomatic

indexingmechanisms,whichriskmaking

inAlationmorepersistent.

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No.415:Patterns of convergence (divergence) in the euro area: proHitability versus cost and price indicators (December2017)

MonicaAmici,EmmanueleBobbioandRoberto

Torrini

Weanalysepatternsofconvergence(divergence)acrosseuro-areacountriesin

manufacturingsincemonetaryunionandAindthat

notonlycosts,butalsoproAitabilityhavefollowed

divergentpaths.WefurtherAindthatproAitability

developmentsonlypartiallyoverlapwiththoseof

unitlabourcostsandproducerprices,more

extensivelystudiedintheliterature.Considering

thelargestcountries,proAitabilityin

manufacturinginGermanyandSpainhasrisenby

comparisonwithnon-tradablesandwithrespect

toFranceandItaly,whereproAitmarginsin

manufacturinghavedeclinedandhavelostground

withrespecttothenon-tradablesector.Weshow

thatthesedevelopmentsarecorrelatedtothe

relativeexportperformanceofthesecountries.

Thiscorrelationalsoholdsinatwodigitsector-

levelpanelanalysis,comprisingalltheeuroarea

countriesthatAirstenteredthemonetaryunion.

Thisisconsistentwiththerecentinternational

tradeliterature,accordingtowhichsuccessful

exportingAirms,whicharemoreefAicientor

producebetterproducts,alsochargehighermark-

ups.TurningtoItaly,afteraprotracteddecline

bothexportsharesandproAitmarginsin

manufacturinghaveimprovedinrecentyears,

whichisconsistentwitharecoveryinexternal

competitiveness.

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No.414:What does the heterogeneity of the inHlation expectations of the Italian Hirms tell us?

(December2017)

LauraBartiloro,MarcoBottoneandAlfonsoRosolia

Quitealot.Weinvestigatehowthecross-

sectionalheterogeneityofAirms’inAlation

expectationsreAlectsinformationavailabilityand

awarenessofrecentmacroeconomic

developments,observableAirmcharacteristics

andbroadermacroeconomicdevelopmentsusing

theBankofItaly’ssurveyonbusinesses’inAlation

andgrowthexpectations.WeAindthat:on

averageabouthalfofthedispersionof

expectationsistraceabletoalackofinformation

aboutthemostrecentpricedevelopments;Airms

incorporatenewinformationintotheir

expectationswithinaquarter;thedispersionof

expectationsisrelatedinastatistically

signiAicantwaytosomeimportantaggregate

economicvariables,anditisgreaterwhen

currentinAlationisfartherawayfromtheECB’s

pricestabilitygoal.Since2015theweight

attributedtopriorbeliefsoflowinAlationhas

steadilyincreasedandtheuncertainty

surroundingthemhasdecreased.Furthermore,

since2014therehasnolongerbeenanempirical

connectionbetweenthedispersionof

expectationsandthedistancefromtheECBprice

stability.Thesetwofactssuggestanincreased

riskofinAlationexpectationsbeingde-anchored.

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No.413:Wage growth in the euro area: where do we stand? (December2017)

GuidoBulligan,ElisaGuglielminettiandEliana

Viviano

Oneofthekeyquestionsaboutthecurrenteconomicrecoveryintheeuroareaiswhy

thedeclineinunemploymentrecordedsincethe

secondhalfof2013hasbeenaccompaniedby

subduedgrowthinnominalwages.Inthispaper

weadoptaPhillipscurveframeworktoassess

whetheralternativeindicatorsoflabourmarket

slackcanexplainthecurrentmodestwage

dynamicsintheeuroareaandinitsAivelargest

economies.Ourresultssuggestthattheintensive

marginoflabourutilizationplaysarelevantrole

inwagegrowth:ourestimatesindicatethatthe

shapeofthePhillipscurvebecomesAlatterfor

lowerlevelsofhoursperworker,implyingthat

wagegrowthislessresponsiveto

unemployment.Lookingahead,asigniAicant

recoveryintheintensivemarginappearskeyto

achievearobustincreaseinnominalwage

growth.

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No.412:The impact of a new airport on international tourism: the case of

Ragusa (Sicily) (December2017)

FrancescoDavidandGiuseppeSaporito

Airportsplayacrucialroleinconnectingplacesandboostinglocaleconomic

development;notwithstandingthis,empirical

evidenceonthesubjectisrelativelylimited.This

paperestimatestheimpactofanewairportin

Ragusa,insoutheasternSicily,oninternational

tourismAlowsinthearea,usingasynthetic

controlapproach.Connectingbyairarelatively

peripheralandisolatedareaofSicilywithahigh

tourismpotentialhasmadeitpossibleto

increasebyaboutoneAifththenumberofnights

spentbyforeigntourists(forover5,100

additionalnights),generating€434thousand

moreintouristexpenditurepermonth.

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No.411:Firms’ Hinancial surpluses in advanced economies: the role of net foreign direct investments (November2017)

TatianaCesaroni,RiccardoDeBonisandLuigi

Infante

AccordingtomacroeconomicpredictionsAirmsareexpectedtobenetborrowers:thenet

changeoftheirAinancialassetsshouldbesmaller

thanthenetchangeoftheirAinancialliabilities.

However,sincethemid-1990s,thenon–Ainancial

sectorhasbeenonaverageanetlenderin

countriessuchasJapan,theUK,Germanyandthe

Netherlands.ConverselyAirmsremainedon

averagenetborrowersincountriessuchasFrance,

ItalyandtheUS.UsingAinancialaccounts,we

investigatethesourcesofcorporatesector

surplusesanddeAicitsapplyingpaneldata

techniques.Ourstatisticsinclude18industrial

countriesovertheperiod1995-2014.WeAindthat

Airms’surplusesarestructurallylinkedtonet

foreigndirectinvestments.Theeconometric

resultsarerobusttotheuseofvariablesthat

controlforthebusinesscycle,suchastheoutput

gap,theratioofcorporateinvestmenttoGDP,

Airms’proAitsandleverage,andtaxation.

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No.410:Investing in the electric utilities

sector: the implications of carbon risk (November2017)

EnricoBernardini,JohnnyDiGiampaolo,Ivan

FaiellaandRiccardoPoli

Thedecarbonizationprocesshasmadethe

traditionalvalue-creationmodelofcompanies

operatingintheelectricitysector(energyutilities-

UEN)obsolete,particularlyaffectingthosewitha

greatershareoffossilfuelsintheirenergymix

thathavebeenforcedtowritedowntheircarbon-

intensiveactivitieswithanegativeimpacton

operatingincome,equityandleverage.

InstitutionalinvestorshaveasigniAicantexposure

toUENriskcapitalanddebt:ifthetransition

processtowardsalow-carbonsystemisfaster

thanexpectedbythemarket,theriskthatthese

weaknessesmayspreadacrosstheAinancial

systemshouldn’tbeunderestimated.Analyses

basedonrisk-premiumfactormodelsshowthat

therewasasigniAicantlow-carbonpremium

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duringtheyearsinwhichthedecarbonization

processincreased;intheperiodconsidered,an

investmentstrategythatfocusedmoreonlow-

carboncompanieswouldhavedeliveredhigher

returnswithoutmodifyingtheoverallriskproAile.

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No.409:Household investments through Italian asset management products (November2017)

AndreaCardilloandMassimoColetta

ThisstudyistheAirsttoanalysetheportfolioinvestmentsunderlyingtheItalianasset

managementproductsheldbyItalianhouseholds

intheperiod2014-2016.Theindirectportfoliois

primarilycomposedofItaliangovernmentbonds,

whiletheproportionofItaliancorporatebonds

andsharesisnegligible.Theshareofthebonds

andequitiesissuedbyforeignintermediariesand

Airmsroseoverthethreeyears:attheendof2016,

Italianhouseholdswereinvestingagreater

amountindirectlyinFrenchandUSnon-Ainancial

corporationsthaninItaliannon-Ainancial

corporations.ThereclassiAicationofindirect

investmentsleadstoanincreaseintheshareof

Italiangovernmentbondsandinvestmentsin

foreigndebtsecuritiesandmutualfundssharesin

Italianhouseholds’totalAinancialassets.

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No.408:Municipal socialism or municipal capitalism? The performance of

local public enterprises in Italy(November2017)

NicolaCurci,DomenicoDepaloandEmilioVadalà

ThispaperevaluatestheperformanceofItalianlocalpublicenterprises(LPEs)withrespectto

theirprivatesectorcounterparts.Weaddressthe

followingquestions:i)doLPEsperformworse

than(comparable)privateAirms?;ii)doesthe

performancegapdependontheownership

structure(theshareheldbythepublic)oronthe

marketstructure(thedegreeofcompetitioninthe

sector)?;iii)whicharethemaindeterminantsof

LPEs'performanceintermsofproductivity?The

mainAindings–whicharerobusttothepossible

endogeneityoftheownershipstructure–areas

follows:i)LPEsperformlesswellthanprivate

companiesbyabout8percentintermsofTFP;ii)

althoughbothownershipstructureandmarket

structurematter,ourresultssuggestthatthe

ownershipstructureismoreimportant;andiii)

theperformancegapofLPEswithrespectto

privateAirmsseemstobedrivenbyover-

capitalizationratherthanbyover-employment.

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No.407:The price of cyber (in)security: evidence from the Italian private sector (November2017)

ClaudiaBiancotti

ThispaperpresentsevidenceontheeconomicdimensionofcyberriskintheItalianprivate

non-Ainancialsector,basedonBankofItalysurvey

data.In2016,themedianamountspenton

preventingcyberattackswasamodest€4,530,i.e.

15percentofatypicalworker’sannualgross

wages.Awidevariationexistsacrosssectorsand

sizeclasses,reAlectingdifferencesinhow

appealingatargetaAirmistoattackersandAirms’

awarenessofthreats:medianvaluesrangefrom

€3,120forsmallAirmsto€19,080intheICTsector

and€44,590forlargeAirms.Themarketforcyber

defenceinourreferenceuniverseisworthatleast

€570million.Havingbeenattackedinthepast

provestobeastrongincentivetoinvestin

security.ThemajorityofbreachedAirmssuffered

damagesworthlessthan€10,000;0.1percent

reportedcostsofatleast€200,000.Neitherthe

samplingdesignnorthequestionnairewere

gearedtowardsthemeasurementoftailevents:

underestimationoflargeincidentsislikely.More

informationisneededbeforetheeconomy-wide

costcanbeestimated.

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No.406:Long-run trends in Italian productivity (November2017)

ClaireGiordano,GianniTonioloandFrancesco

Zollino

Basedonupdateddatasetsofvalueaddedandoflabourandcapitalinputs,thispaper

providesareassessmentoftheproximatecauses

ofItaly’seconomicdevelopmentsinceitspolitical

uniAicationin1861to2016.Italy’spre-WWII

economyfeaturedweakproductivitygrowth,with

theexceptionoftheGiolittieraandthe1920s.

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Italythenembarkedonanexceptionalcatching-up

processrelativetothetechnologicalleaders

duringtheGoldenAge.Comparedwiththepre-

WWIIyears,whentheItalianeconomywasheld

backbyslowproductivitygrowthinthelarge

agriculturalsector,thecatching-upprocessduring

theGoldenAgewaspropelledbytherapidshiftof

labouroutofagriculture.Asinmanycountries,

thisrapidgrowthinproductivitycouldnotbe

sustainedafter1973,butthefurtherslowdown

sincethe1990shasbeenmorepronouncedin

Italythanelsewhere.Thedisappointing

performanceoftheItalianeconomysincetheearly

1990sislargelyexplainedbyslowlabour

productivitygrowthinthenowdominantservices

sectorandbysluggishaggregatetotalfactor

productivity.Labourproductivitydevelopments

actuallyturnednegativeduringtheprotracted

crisisfollowingtheglobalAinancialturmoil,dueto

thedeclineincapitalaccumulationandintotal

factorproductivity.Sincethestartoftherecovery

in2013,whiletotalfactorproductivityhas

returnedtoamoderatelypositivetrend,the

capitalstockhasnotfullyovercomethelegacyof

thecrisis.

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No.405:Oil price pass-through into core inHlation (November2017)

CristinaCon<littiandMatteoLuciani

ThisworkestimatestheeffectthatAluctuations

inoilpriceshaveonchangesinconsumer

pricesinboththeUnitedStatesandtheeuroarea.

Formanyofthebasicitemsinthebasketofgoods

usedtoestimateinAlation,theeffectsofoilprice

trendsaredividedintotwocomponents:theAirst

islinkedtothespeciAiccharacteristicsof

individualproducts(suchas,forexample,the

importanceofenergyintheproductionprocess),

whilethesecondisrelatedtomacroeconomic

factorswhichareinturnconnectedwithchanges

inoilprices.Theresultsshowthatchangesinoil

pricesmainlypassthroughtocoreinAlation(or

rathertoinAlationexcludingfoodandenergy

products)bymeansofmacroeconomicfactors;

whiletheeffectislimited,itisstatistically

differentfromzeroandpersistsovertime.

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October 2017

No.404:Anewmeasureofhouseholds’energypovertyIvanFaiella,LucianoLavecchiaandMarcoBorgarello

No.403:Acriticalreviewofthestatisticsonthesizeandriskinessofthesecuritizationmarket:evidencefromItalyandothereuroareacountriesGiorgioNuzzo

No.402:CorruptionandpersonnelselectionandallocationinthepublicsectorSauroMocettiandTommasoOrlando

No.401:CiviljusticeinItaly:recenttrendsSilviaGiacomelli,SauroMocetti,GiulianaPalumboandGiacomoRoma

No.400:Publicworksprocurementinthenewcode:alegalandeconomicassessmentofthemainmeasuresAnnaPeta

No.399:Backontrack?Amacro-micronarrativeofItalianexportsMatteoBugamelli,SilviaFabiani,StefanoFederico,AlbertoFelettigh,ClaireGiordanoandAndreaLinarello

No.398:DiscretionaryAiscalpolicyintheeuroarea:past,present,futureFrancescoCaprioli,MarziaRomanelliandPietroTommasino

No.397:LegalenforcementandGlobalValueChains:micro-evidencefromItalianmanufacturingAirmsAntonioAccetturo,AndreaLinarelloandAndreaPetrella

September 2017

No.396:ThedynamicsoftheItalianlabourforceparticipationrate:determinantsandimplicationsfortheemploymentandunemploymentrateMartaDePhilippis

No.395:AcompositeindexofinAlationtendenciesintheeuroareaMarcelloMiccoli,MariannaRiggi,LisaRodanoandLauraSigalotti

No.394:BIMic:theBankofItalymicrosimulationmodelfortheItaliantaxandbeneAitsystemMarikaCiof<i,NicolaCurciandMarcoSavegnago

No.393:TowardsamoreefAicientuseofmultilateraldevelopmentbanks’capitalRiccardoSettimo

No.392:MonetarypolicyinalowinterestrateenvironmentGiuseppeFerreroandStefanoNeri

No.391:Thetotalcostofinvestinginmutualfunds GiorgioAlbareto,GiuseppeCappelletti,AndreaCardilloandLucaZucchelli

No.390:Battlescars.NewAirms’capital,labor,andrevenuegrowthduringthedouble-diprecessionFrancescoManaresiandFilippoScoccianti

No.389:ThederivativesthroughthelensoftheAinancialaccounts:measurementandanalysisLuigiInfanteandBiancaSorvillo

No.388:Incentivestolocalpublicserviceprovision:anevaluationofItaly’sObiettividiServizioGuglielmoBarone,GuidodeBlasio,AlessioD’IgnazioandAndreaSalvati

No.387:Debtor-in-possessionAinancingandcreditpriority:theeffectsofthepreferentialstatusgrantedbylawinacompositionwithcreditorsElisaBrodiandLucaCasolaro

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No.11: Bad loan recovery rates in 2016(November2017)

FrancescoMariaConti,IginoGuida,AnnaRendina

andGiovanniSantini

Thisnoteupdatesthebadloanrecoveryrates

estimatedinNotesonFinancialStabilityand

Supervision,No.7,andprovidesacomparative

analysisofthecharacteristicsofclosedbadloan

positionsrelativetostocksoutstandingattheend

of2016.Thedata,alongwithsomedetailed

breakdownsthatarecommentedonbutnot

reportedinthistext,areavailableindigitalformat.

Ouranalysisreachedthefollowingmain

conclusions.

In2016theoverallamountofclosedpositions

reacheditshighestlevelsince2006(€17billion,

comparedwith€13billionin2015),mainlyowing

totheincreaseinsalesonthesecondarymarket.

Thisvalueisstilllowerthanthatofnewly

classiAiedbadloans,butthedifferencehasmore

thanhalvedoverthelastthreeyears.Thenumber

ofpositionsclosedexceededthatofpositions

opened.

In2016theaveragerecoveryratecameto34per

cent(35percentin2015and34percentin2014).

TheslightdeclinereAlectedthesigniAicantincrease

intheshareofpositionssold,whoserecovery

ratesremainfarbelowthoseobtainedusing

standardrecoveryprocedures.Nonetheless,the

averagerecoveryrateforpositionssoldonthe

marketdidincrease(23percentcomparedwith

20percentin2015).

Thespeedofdisposalofbadloansisstillrising

gradually.Theshareofpositionsclosedwithinone

yearofbeingclassiAiedasabadloan,whichhad

fallentoalowof20percentin2012,roseto38

percentforthepositionsopenedin2015.Asfor

theamountsinvolved,theratiobetweenthe

amountofbadloansclosedeachyearandthe

stockoutstandingatthestartoftheperiod,which

hadreachedalowof6percentin2013,was

consistentlyabove8percentinthelastthree

years,reachingover9percentin2016.

Therecoveryratesobservedrecentlydonot

appeartooverestimatepotentialrecoveriesinthe

nextfewyears.Infact,theageofthepositions

closedduringtheperiod2006-16,forwhichthe

recoveryrateshavebeencalculated,ismuch

higherthantheaveragevintageofthestockof

positionsoutstandingattheendof2016.These

closedpositionsalsoshowasmallerpercentageof

positionssecuredbycollateral.Theircomposition

bycounterpartysector(households,Airms)and

geographicaldistribution(north,centre,south)

appearsverysimilartothatoftheoutstanding.

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Notes on Financial Stability and Supervision

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No.43: Business cycles, credit cycles, and bank holdings of sovereign bonds: historical evidence for Italy 1861-2013

(November2017)

SilvanaBartoletto,BrunoChiarini,Elisabetta

MarzanoandPaoloPiselli

WeproposeajointdatingofItalianbusinessandcreditcyclesonahistoricalbasisby

applyingalocalturning-pointdatingalgorithmto

thelevelofthevariables.Alongwithshortcycles

correspondingtotraditionalbusinesscycle

Aluctuations,wealsoinvestigatemediumcycles,

becausethereisevidencethatAinancialboomsand

bustsarelongerandmorepersistentthan

businesscycles.Aftercomparingourcycleswith

theprominentqualitativefeaturesoftheItalian

economy,wecarryoutsomestatisticaltestsfor

comovementbetweencreditandbusinesscycles

andAindevidencethatcreditandbusinesscycles

arepoorlysynchronized,especiallyinthemedium

term.Nonetheless,wedemonstratethatonlyfor

medium-termfrequenciesthecoincidenceof

Ainancialdownturnsandeconomicrecessions

signiAicantlyincreasesoutputlosses.

WedonotAindevidencethatthecreditcycleleads

thebusinesscycle,bothinmediumandshort-term

Aluctuations.Onthecontrary,intheshortcycle,we

Aindsomeevidencethatthebusinesscycleleads

thecreditcycle.Finally,creditandbusinesscycle

comovementincreaseswhencreditembodies

publicbondsheldbybanks,i.e.,bankAinancingto

thepublicsector.

Fulltext(pdf)

No.42: The age distribution of the labour force as evidence of prior events: the Italian data for 1911 and the long swing in investment from uniHication to the Great War

(November2017)

RobertoPezzuto

Dataontheagedistributionofthelaborforce,byactivity,appearinnumerousearly

twentieth-centuryEuropeancensuses;but

economichistoriansseemnevertohaveexplored

them.Thispaperprovidesaninitialexamination

oftheage-distributiondataintheItaliancensusof

1911,showinghowtheyshedlightonvarious

aspectsoftheeconomyoftheday,andonits

precedingpath.

Apointofparticularinterestisthatthesedata

reAlectthelongcycleinconstruction,andinthe

productionofconstructionmaterials.Theyfurther

suggestthatthelongcycleoftheengineering

industrydocumentedbyitsaggregatemetal

consumptionwasindeedpresentinthe

productionofconstruction-relatedhardware,but

notablyabsentfromtheproductionofmachinery

and,derivatively,industrialinvestment.

Thislastpointdeniestheempiricalpremiseofthe

extantinterpretationsofItaly’spost-UniAication

industrialgrowth;butitsitswellwiththenew

disaggregatedtime-seriesestimatesofthe

engineeringindustry’sproduct.

Fulltext(pdf)

Economic History Working Papers

R����������B��� �I���-N������� NNOP��49,F�P�N���2018

18

Authors’ names in boldface: Bank of Italy

Fulllistsince1990

Forthcoming

Adamopoulou E.andE.Kaya,“YoungAdultsLivingwiththeirParentsandtheInAluenceofPeers”,Oxford

BulletinofEconomicsandStatistics.

Albanese G.,G. de Blasio and P. Sestito,“Trust,Risk

andTimePreferences:EvidencefromSurveyData”,

InternationalReviewofEconomics.(WPNo.911)

AndiniC.and M. Andini,“UnemploymentPersistence

andQuantileParameterHeterogeneity”,

MacroeconomicDynamics.

Barone G.,G. de Blasio and S. Mocetti,“TheReal

EffectsofCreditCrunchintheGreatRecession:

EvidencefromItalianProvinces”,RegionalScience

andUrbanEconomics.(WPNo.1057)

BelottiF.and G. Ilardi,“ConsistentInferenceinFixed-

EffectsStochasticFrontierModels”,Journalof

Econometrics.(WPNo.1147)

Bernardini M.andG.Peersman,“PrivateDebtOverhang

andtheGovernmentSpendingMultiplier:Evidencefor

theUnitedStates”,JournalofAppliedEconometrics.

BertonF.,S. Mocetti,A,PresbiteroandM.Richiardi,

“Banks,Firms,andJobs”,ReviewofFinancialStudies.

(WPNo.1097)

Bofondi M.,L. Carpinelli and E. Sette,“Information

CreditSupplyduringaSovereignDebtCrisis”,

JournaloftheEuropeanEconomicAssociation.

(WPNo.909)

Camussi S.,A. L. Mancini and P. Tommasino,“Does

TrustInAluenceSocialExpenditure?Evidencefrom

LocalGovernments”,Kyklos.

Casiraghi M., E. Gaiotti, L. Rodano andA. Secchi,

“A“ReverseRobinHood”?TheDistributional

ImplicationsofNon-standardMonetaryPolicyfor

ItalianHouseholds”,JournalofInternationalMoney

andFinance.(WPNo.1077)

D’Amuri F.,“MonitoringandDisincentivesin

ContainingPaidSickLeave”,LabourEconomics.

(WPNo.787)

De Matteis P.,F.PietrovitoandA.Pozzolo,“Local

ContextandExports:anAnalysiswithaMatched

SampleofFirm-ProvinceData”,RegionalStudies.

Federico S.andE. Tosti, “ExportersandImportersof

Services:Firm-LevelEvidenceonItaly”,TheWorld

Economy.(WPNo.877)

Giacomelli S.andC.Menon,“DoesWeakContract

EnforcementAffectFirmSize?Evidencefromthe

Neighbour'sCourt”,JournalofEconomicGeography.

(WPNo.898)

Giacomelli S.andM. Tonello,“AssessingBureaucratic

Start-upCostsThroughMysteryCalls.Evidencefrom

theOne-stopShopsforDoingBusiness”,European

JournalofPoliticalEconomy.

Natoli F.andL. Sigalotti, “TailCo-Movementin

InAlationExpectationsasanIndicatorofAnchoring”,

InternationalJournalofCentralBanking.

(WPNo.1025)

Riggi M., “CapitalDestruction,JoblessRecoveries,and

theDisciplineDeviceRoleofUnemployment”,

MacroeconomicDynamics.(WPNo.871)

Rizzica L.,“WhentheCat'sAway.TheEffectsofSpousal

MigrationonInvestmentsonChildren”,WorldBank

EconomicReview.

Segura A.,“WhydidsponsorbanksrescuetheirSIVs?”,

ReviewofFinance.(WPNo.1100)

_______________________________________________________

2018

Carta F.andM. De Philippis,“You'veComeaLongWay,

Baby.Husbands'CommutingTimeandFamilyLabour

Supply”,RegionalScienceandUrbanEconomics,v.69,

pp.25-37.(WPNo.1003)

Carta F.andL. Rizzica,“EarlyKindergarten,MaternalLaborSupplyandChildren'sOutcomes:Evidencefrom

Italy”,JournalofPublicEconomics,v.158,pp.79-102.

(WPNo.1030)

De Bonis R.,G. Marinelli and F. Vercelli,“PlayingYo-

YowithBankCompetition:NewEvidencefrom1890

to2014”,ExplorationsinEconomicHistory,v.67,

pp.134-151.

Nucci F.andM. Riggi,“LaborForceParticipation,Wage

Rigidities,andInAlation”,JournalofMacroeconomics,

v.55,3pp.274-292.(WPNo.1054)

_______________________________________________________

2017

Adamopoulou E.andG. M. Tanzi,“AcademicDropout

andtheGreatRecession”,JournalofHumanCapital,

v.11,1,pp.35–71.(WPNo.970)

AfHinito M. andA.Pozzolo,“TheInterbankNetworkAcrosstheGlobalFinancialCrisis:Evidencefrom

Italy”,JournalofBanking&Finance,v.80,pp.90-107.

Albertazzi U.,M. Bottero and G. Sene,“Information

ExternalitiesintheCreditMarketandtheSpellof

CreditRationing”,JournalofFinancial

Intermediation,v.30,pp.61–70.(WPNo.980)

Alessandri P. andH.Mumtaz,“FinancialIndicatorsand

DensityForecastsforUSOutputandInAlation”,

ReviewofEconomicDynamics,v.24,pp.66-78.

(WPNo.977)

Alessandri P., R.MeeksandB.Nelson,“ShadowBanks

andMacroeconomicInstability”,InternationalJournal

ofCentralBanking,v.49,7,pp.1483–1516.

(WPNo.939)

Selection of Journal articles and books

R����������B��� �I���-N������� NNOP��49,F�P�N���2018

19

Selection of Journal articles and books

ArmandA.,P.Carneiro,J.Keating,A. LocatelliandS.Mihreteab,“DoPublicHealthInterventionsCrowdout

PrivateHealthInvestments?MalariaControlPoliciesin

Eritrea”,LabourEconomics,v.45,pp.107–115.

AtellaV.,F.Belottiand D. Depalo,“DrugTherapy

AdherenceandHealthOutcomesinthePresenceof

PhysicianandPatientUnobservedHeterogeneity”,

HealthEconomics,v.26,S2,pp.106-126.

AttinasiM.G.andL. Metelli,“IsFiscalConsolidation

Self-Defeating?APanel-VARAnalysisfortheEuro

AreaCountries”,JournalofInternationalMoneyand

Finance,v.74,pp.147–164.

Bencivelli L.,M.MarcellinoandG.Moretti,“Forecasting

EconomicActivitybyBayesianBridgeModel

Averaging”,EmpiricalEconomics,v.53,1,pp.21-40.

Bronzini R.andA. D’Ignazio,“BankInternationalisationandFirmExports:Evidence

fromMatchedFirm-BankData”,Reviewof

InternationalEconomics,v.25,3,pp.476-499.(WP

No.1055)

BrucheM.andA. Segura,“DebtMaturityandthe

LiquidityofSecondaryDebtMarkets”,Journalof

FinancialEconomics,v.124,3,pp.599-613.

(WPNo.1049)

Burlon L.,“PublicExpenditureDistribution,Voting,and

Growth”,JournalofPublicEconomicTheory,v.19,4,

pp.789–810.(WPNo.961)

Busetti F.,“QuantileAggregationofDensityForecasts”,OxfordBulletinofEconomicsandStatistics,v.79,4,pp.495-512.(WPNo.979)

Caccavaio M., L. Carpinelli andG. Marinelli,“InternationalBankingandCross-borderEffectsof

Regulation:LessonsfromItaly”,InternationalJournal

ofCentralBanking,v.13,1,pp223-248.

CaiY.,K.Judd,T.Lontzek,V. MichelangeliandC.Su,“Non-linearProgrammingMethodforDynamic

Programming”,MacroeconomicDynamics,v.21,2,

pp.336-361.

Cannari L., G. D’Alessioand G.Vecchi,“Wealth”,inG.

Vecchi(ed.),MeasuringWellbeing,AHistoryofItalian

LivingStandards,Oxford,OxfordUniversityPress.

Cappelletti G.,G. Guazzarotti and P. Tommasino,

“TheStockMarketEffectsofaSecurities

TransactionTax:Quasi-ExperimentalEvidencefrom

Italy”,JournalofFinancialStability,v.31,pp.81-92.

Cesaroni T. and S. Iezzi,“ThePredictiveContentof

BusinessSurveyIndicators:EvidencefromSIGE”,

JournalofBusinessCycleResearch,v.13,1,pp75–

104.(WPNo.1031)

D’AddaG.and G. de Blasio,“HistoricalLegacyandPolicyEffectiveness:theLong-TermInAluenceof

PreuniAicationBordersinItaly”,JournalofRegional

Science,v.57,2,pp.319-341.

D’Amuri F. and J. Marcucci,“ThePredictivePowerofGoogleSearchesinForecastingUnemployment”,

InternationalJournalofForecasting,v.33,4,

pp.801-816.(WPNo.891)

de Blasio G.andS.Poy,“TheImpactofLocalMinimumWagesonEmployment:EvidencefromItalyinthe

1950s”,JournalofRegionalScience,v.57,1,pp.48-74.

(WPNo.953)

Del Giovane P., A. Nobili andF. M. Signoretti,

“AssessingtheSourcesofCreditSupplyTightening:

WastheSovereignDebtCrisisDifferentfrom

Lehman?”,InternationalJournalofCentralBanking,

v.13,2,pp.197-234.(WPNo.942)

Delle Monache D. andI.Petrella,“AdaptiveModelsandHeavyTailswithanApplicationtoInAlation

Forecasting”,InternationalJournalofForecasting,

v.33,2,pp.482-501.(WPNo.1052)

JappelliT.,C.Nappiand R. Torrini,“GenderEffectsin

ResearchEvaluation”,ResearchPolicy,v.46,5,

pp.911-924.

Mocetti S. andE. Viviano,“LookingBehindMortgage

Delinquencies”,JournalofBanking&Finance,v.75,

pp.53-63.(WPNo.999)

Nobili A.andF. Zollino,“AStructuralModelfortheHousingandCreditMarketinItaly”,Journalof

HousingEconomics,v.36,pp.73-87.(WPNo.887)

Palazzo F.,“SearchCostsandtheSeverityofAdverse

Selection”,ResearchinEconomics,v.71,1,pp.171-197.

(WPNo.1073)

Palazzo F.andM.Zhang,,“InformationDisclosureandAsymmetricSpeedofLearninginBoomsandBusts”,EconomicsLetters,v.158,pp.37-40.

PatacchiniE.,E. RainoneandY.Zenou,“HeterogeneousPeerEffectsinEducation”,JournalofEconomicBehavior&Organization,v.134,pp.190–227.(WPNo.1048)

Pereda-Fernández S., “SocialSpilloversinthe

Classroom:IdentiAication,EstimationandPolicy

Analysis”,Economica,v.84,336,pp.712-747.

Santoro S.,“HeterogeneityandLearningwithComplete

Markets”,EconomicTheory,v.64,1,pp183–211.

SbranaG.,A. Silvestrini and F. Venditti,“Short-Term

InAlationForecasting:TheM.E.T.A.Approach”,

InternationalJournalofForecasting,v.33,4,pp.

1065-1081.(WPNo.1016)

Segura A. andJ.Suarez,“HowExcessiveisBanks'

MaturityTransformation?”,ReviewofFinancial

Studies,v.30,10,pp.3538–3580.(WPNo.1065)

________________________________________________________

2016

Albanese G., G. de Blasio andP. Sestito,“MyParentsTaughtMe.EvidenceonTheFamilyTransmissionof

Values”,JournalofPopulationEconomics,v.29,2,pp.

571-592.(WPNo.955)

Amici M., S. Giacomelli, F. Manaresi andM. Tonello,

“RedTapeReductionandFirmEntry:NewEvidence

fromanItalianReform”,EconomicsLetters,v.146,

pp.24-27.(OPNo.285)

R����������B��� �I���-N������� NNOP��49,F�P�N���2018

20

Selection of Journal articles and books

Andini M.andG. de Blasio,“LocalDevelopmentthat

MoneycannotBuy:Italy’sContrattidiProgramma”,

JournalofEconomicGeography,v.16,2,pp.365-393.

(WPNo.915)

ArrondelL.,L. Bartiloro,P.Fessler,P.Lindner,T.Mathae,C. Rampazzi,F.Savignac,T.Schmidt,M.

Schuerz,andP.Vermeulen,“HowdoHouseholds

AllocatetheirAssets?StylisedFactsfromthe

EurosystemHouseholdFinanceandConsumption

Survey”,InternationalJournalofCentralBanking,v.

12,2,pp.129-220.

Barone G.,G. de Blasio, A. D’Ignazio andP.Naticchioni,“Mr.Rossi,Mr.HuandPolitics:TheRoleofImmigrationinShapingNatives'PoliticalPreferences”,JournalofPublicEconomics,v.136,pp.1-13.

Barone G.,F. David andG. de Blasio, “BoulevardofBrokenDreams:TheEndofEUFunding(1997:Abruzzi,Italy)”,RegionalScienceandUrbanEconomics,v.60,pp.31-38.

Barone G.andS. Mocetti,“InequalityandTrust:NewEvidencefromPanelData”,EconomicInquiry,v.54,pp.794-809.(WPNo.973)

BeltrattiA.,B.Bortolotti.andM. Caccavaio,“StockMarketEfAiciencyinChina:EvidencefromtheSplit-ShareReform”,QuarterlyReviewofEconomicsandFinance,v.60,pp.125-137.(WPNo.969)

BertaminoF.,R. Bronzini, M.DeMaggioandD. Revelli,“RegionalPoliciesforInnovation:theCaseofTechnologyDistrictsinItaly”,RegionalStudies,v.50,pp:1-14.(OPNo.313)

BolattoS.andM. Sbracia,“DeconstructingtheGainsfromTrade:SelectionofIndustriesvsReallocationofWorkers”,ReviewofInternationalEconomics,v.24,2,pp.344-363.(WPNo.1037)

BoltonP.,X.Freixas,L.GambacortaandP. E. Mistrulli,“RelationshipandTransactionLendinginaCrisis”,ReviewofFinancialStudies,v.29,10,pp.2643-2676.(WPNo.917)

Bonaccorsi di Patti E.andE. Sette,“DidtheSecuritizationMarketFreezeAffectBankLendingDuringtheFinancialCrisis?EvidencefromaCreditRegister”,JournalofFinancialIntermediation,v.25,1,pp.54-76.(WPNo.848)

Borin A.andM. Mancini,“ForeignDirectInvestmentandFirmPerformance:AnEmpiricalAnalysisofItalianFirms”,ReviewofWorldEconomics,v.152,4,pp.705-732.(WPNo.1011)

BragoliD.,M. RigonandF.Zanetti,“OptimalInAlation

WeightsintheEuroArea”,InternationalJournalof

CentralBanking,v.12,2,pp.357-383.(WPNo.1045)

Brandolini A., F. Carta and F. D’Amuri,“AFeasibleUnemployment-BasedShockAbsorberfortheEuroArea”,JournalofCommonMarketStudies,v.54,5,pp.1123–1141.(OPNo.254)

Brandolini A. and E. Viviano,“BehindandBeyondthe(Headcount)EmploymentRate”,JournaloftheRoyalStatisticalSociety:SeriesA,v.179,3,pp.657-681.(WPNo.965)

Bripi F.,“TheRoleofRegulationonEntry:EvidenceFromtheItalianProvinces”,WorldBankEconomicReview,v.30,2,pp.383-411.(WPNo.932)

Bronzini R.andP. Piselli,“TheImpactofR&DSubsidiesonFirmInnovation”,ResearchPolicy,v.45,2,pp.442-457.(WPNo.960)

Busetti F.andM. Caivano,“TheTrend–CycleDecompo-sitionofOutputandthePhillipsCurve:BayesianEstimatesforItalyandtheEuroArea”,EmpiricalEconomics,v.50,4,pp.1565-1587.(WPNo.941)

CalzaA.andA. Zaghini,“Shoe-LeatherCostsintheEuroAreaandtheForeignDemandforEuroBanknotes”,InternationalJournalofCentralBanking,v.12,1,pp.231-246.(WPNo.1039)

Casiraghi M., E. Gaiotti, L. RodanoandA. Secchi,“ECBUnconventionalMonetaryPolicyandtheItalianEconomyDuringtheSovereignDebtCrisis”,InternationalJournalofCentralBanking,v.12,2,pp.269-315.(OPNo.203)

Cesaroni T. andR.DeSantis,“CurrentAccount‘Core-PeripheryDualism’intheEMU”,TheWorld

Economy,v.39,10,pp.1514-1538.(WPNo.996)

Ciani E.,“Retirement,PensionEligibilityandHomeProduction”,LabourEconomics,v.38,pp.106-120.(WPNo.1056)

Cingano F.,M.Leonardi,J.MessinaandG.Pica,“EmploymentProtectionLegislation,CapitalInvestmentandAccesstoCredit:EvidencefromItaly”,EconomicJournal,v.126,595,pp.1798-1822.

Cingano F., F. ManaresiandE. Sette,“DoesCreditCrunchInvestmentDown?NewEvidenceontheRealEffectsoftheBank-LendingChannel”,ReviewofFinancialStudies,v.29,10,pp.2737-2773.

Cingano F.andP.Pinotti,“Trust,FirmOrganization,andthePatternofComparativeAdvantage”,JournalofInternationalEconomics,v.100,pp.1-13.

Coin D.andV. Vacca,“Non-BankFinanceforFirms:theRoleofPrivateEquityFundsinItaly”,EmpiricalEconomics,v.51,1,pp.221-243.

Corneli F.andE.Tarantino,“SovereignDebtandReserveswithLiquidityandProductivityCrises”,JournalofInternationalMoneyandFinance,v.65,pp.166-194.(WPNo.1012)

Cova P.,P.PaganoandM. Pisani,“ForeignExchangeReserveDiversiAicationandthe'ExorbitantPrivilege':GlobalMacroecomicEffects”,JournalofInternationalMoneyandFinance,v.67,pp.82–101.

Cuciniello V.andE.Lambertini,“OptimalExchangeRateFlexibilitywithLargeLaborUnions”,JournalofInternationalMoneyandFinance,v.63,pp.112-136.

de Blasio G.,G.MaggioandC.Menon,“DownandOutin

ItalianTowns:MeasuringtheImpactofEconomic

DownturnsonCrime”,EconomicsLetters,146,

pp.99-102.(WPNo.925)

R����������B��� �I���-N������� NNOP��49,F�P�N���2018

21

Selection of Journal articles and books

Di Nino V.andI. Faiella,“ShaleFuels:TheSolutiontotheEnergyConundrum?”,inRossellaBardazzi,

MariaGraziaPazienza,AlbertoTonini(eds.):

EuropeanEnergyandClimateSecurity,Springer.

(OPNo.205)

DragoneD.,F. ManaresiandL. Savorelli,“ObesityandSmoking:CanWeKillTwoBirdswithOneTax?”,HealthEconomics,v.25,11,pp.1464-1482.

Esposito L., A. NobiliandT. Ropele,“TheManagementofInterestRateRiskDuringtheCrisis:EvidencefromItalianBanks”,JournalofBanking&Finance,v.59,pp.486-504.(WPNo.933)

FeveP.,T.Kass-HannaandM. Pietrunti,“ShortNoisyFiscalPolicy”,EuropeanEconomicReview,v.85,pp.144-164.

FeveP.,andM. Pietrunti,“AnAnalyticalCharacterizationofNoisyFiscalPolicy”,EconomicsLetters148,pp.76-79.

FortM.,F. Manaresi and S.Trucchi,“AdultFinancial

LiteracyandHouseholds’FinancialAssets:theRole

ofBankInformationPolicies”,EconomicPolicy,v.

31,88,pp.743-782.

Giordano C.andF. Zollino,“SheddingLightonPriceandNon-PriceCompetitivenessDeterminantsofForeignTradeintheFourLargestEuro-AreaCountries”,ReviewofInternationalEconomics,v.24,3,pp.604-636.(OPNo.233)

IppolitoF.,J.Peydro,A.PoloandE.Sette,“DoubleBankRunsandLiquidityRiskManagement”,JournalofFinancialEconomics,v.122,1,pp.135-154.

Liberati D., M. Marinucci andG. M. Tanzi,“ScienceandTechnologyParksinItaly:MainFeatures

andAnalysisoftheirEffectsonHostedFirms”,Journal

ofTechnologyTransfer,v.41,4,pp.694-729.

(WPNo.983)

MarcellinoM.,M. PorquedduandF. Venditti,“Short-TermGDPForecastingwithaMixedFrequencyDynamicFactorModelwithStochasticVolatility”,JournalofBusiness&EconomicStatistics,v.34,1,pp.118-127.(WPNo.896)

Mocetti S.,“DynastiesinProfessionsandtheRoleofRentsandRegulation:EvidencefromItalianPharmacies”,JournalofPublicEconomics,v.133,1,pp.1-10.

Piazza R.,“Self-FulAillingDeAlations”,JournalofEconomicDynamicsandControl,v.73,pp.18-40.

Rodano G.,N.Serrano-ValverdeandE.Tarantino,“BankruptcyLawandBankFinancing”,JournalofFinancialEconomics,v.120,2,pp.363-382.(WPNo.1013)

Savegnago M.,“igmobil:ACommandforIntergenerationalMobilityAnalysisinStata”,StataJournal,v.16,2,pp.386–402.

Tonello M.,“PeerEffectsofNon-NativeStudentsonNatives’EducationalOutcomes:MechanismsandEvidence”,EmpiricalEconomics,v.51,1,pp.383–414.

Zaghini A.,“FragmentationandHeterogeneityintheEuro-AreaCorporateBondMarket:BacktoNormal?”,JournalofFinancialStability,v.23,pp.51-61.

Zinna G., “PricePressuresonUKRealRates:anEmpiricalInvestigation”,ReviewofFinance,v.20,4,

pp.1587-1630.(WPNo.968)

________________________________________________________

2015

AabergeR.andA. Brandolini,“MultidimensionalPovertyandInequality”,inB.AtkinsonB.andF.Bourguignon(eds.),HandbookofIncomeDistribution,Volume2A,Amsterdam,Elsevier.(WPNo.976)

Albertazzi U.,G. Eramo,L.Gambacorta,andC.Salleo,“AsymmetricInformationinSecuritization:AnEmpiricalAssessment”,JournalofMonetaryEconomics,v.71,pp.33-49.(WPNo.796)

Alessandri P.andB.Nelson,“Simplebanking:proAitabilityandtheyieldcurve”,JournalofMoney,CreditandBanking,v.47,1,pp.143-175.(WPNo.945)

AtkinsonA.andA. Brandolini,“UnveilingtheEthicsbehindInequalityMeasurement:Dalton’sContributiontoEconomics”,EconomicJournal,v.125,583,pp.209-234.

Barone G.,F.D’AcuntoandG.Narciso,“Telecracy:TestingforChannelsofPersuasion”,AmericanEconomicJournal:EconomicPolicy,v.7,2,pp.30-60.

Barone G.andG.Narciso,“OrganizedCrimeandBusinessSubsidies:WheredoestheMoneyGo?”,JournalofUrbanEconomics,v.86,pp.98-110.(WPNo.916)

BoeriT.,M. De Philippis,E.PatacchiniandM.Pellizzari,“Immigration,HousingDiscriminationandEmployment”,TheEconomicJournal,v.125,586,pp.F82–F114.

Brandolini A.,“TheBigChill.ItalianFamilyBudgetsaftertheGreatRecession”,inC.FusaroandA.Kreppel(eds.),ItalianPolitics2013,NewYork,Berghahn.

Breda E., R. CapparielloandR. Zizza,“TheVerticalSpecializationinEurope:EvidencefromtheImportContentofExports”,inL.Lambertini(eds.)Firms’ObjectivesandInternalOrganisationinaGlobalEconomy:PositiveandNormativeAnalysis,PalgraveMacMillan.(WPNo.682)

Bugamelli M., S. FabianiandE. Sette,“TheAgeoftheDragon:TheEffectofImportsfromChinaonFirm-levelPrices”,JournalofMoney,CreditandBanking,v.47,6,pp.1091-1118.(WPNo.737)

Bugamelli M., E. GaiottiandE. Viviano,“DomesticandForeignSales:ComplementsorSubstitutes?”,EconomicsLetters,v.135,pp.46-51.(OPNo.248)

Bulligan G.,M.MarcellinoandF. Venditti,“ForecastingEconomicActivitywithTargetedPredictors”,InternationalJournalofForecasting,v.31,1,pp.188-206.(WPNo.847)

R����������B��� �I���-N������� NNOP��49,F�P�N���2018

22

Selection of Journal articles and books

Caccavaio M., L. Carpinelli, G. MarinelliandE. Sette,“ShockTransmissionthroughInternationalBanks:theItalianCase”,IMFEconomicReview,v.63,3,pp.568-584.(OPNo.232)

Caprioli F., “OptimalFiscalPolicyUnderLearning”,JournalofEconomicDynamicsandControl,v.58,pp.101-124.

Cuciniello V. andF. Signoretti,“Banks,LoanRateMarkupandMonetaryPolicy”,InternationalJournalofCentralBanking,v.11,3,pp.141-177.(WPNo.987)

de Blasio G., D. Fantino andG. Pellegrini,“EvaluatingtheImpactofInnovationIncentives:EvidencefromanUnexpectedShortageofFunds”,IndustrialandCorporateChange,v.24,6,pp.1285-1314.(WPNo.792)

DecarolisF.andG. Palumbo,“RenegotiationofPublicContracts:AnEmpiricalAnalysis”,EconomicsLetters,v.132,pp.77-81.

DegasperiP.andM. Stacchini, “Trust,FamilyBusinessesandFinancialIntermediation”,JournalofCorporateFinance,v.33,pp.293-316.

Depalo D., R. Giordano andE.Papapetrou,“Public-PrivateWageDifferentialsinEuroAreaCountries:EvidencefromQuantileDecompositionAnalysis”,EmpiricalEconomics,v.49,3,pp.985-1115.(WPNo.907)

Di Iasio G.,M.Gallegati,F.LilloandR.Mantegna,“TheInterlinkagesandSystemicRisk:Foreword”,QuantitativeFinance,v.15,4,pp.587-588.

Di Iasio G.,L. Infante,F.Pierobon,L.BargigliandF.Lillo,“TheMultiplexStructureofInterbankNetworks”,QuantitativeFinance,v.15,4,pp.673-691.

D’Ignazio A. andE.Giovannetti,“PredictingInternetCommercialConnectivityWars:TheImpactofTrustandOperators’Asymmetry””,InternationalJournalofForecasting,v.31,4pp.1127-1137.

FratzscherM.,D.Rime,L.SarnoandG. Zinna,“The

ScapegoatTheoryofExchangeRates:TheFirst

Tests”,JournalofMonetaryEconomics,v.70,1,

pp.1-21.(WPNo.991)

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