ERMITAGE: ERMITAGE: COUPLING MODELSCOUPLING MODELSINTO CIAS: INTO CIAS: WHY, WHAT, and HOWWHY, WHAT, and HOW

Nov 17, 2011Nov 17, 2011University of East AngliaUniversity of East Anglia

Rachel Warren, Tyndall Centre, Rachel Warren, Tyndall Centre,

Requirements for ERMITAGERequirements for ERMITAGE WP11 WP11

1. Create scenarios which simulate climate mitigation and examine their ‘sustainability’ for......adequacy of food and water supply, protection of ecosystems and water resources

2. Create scenarios that simulate ‘sustainable’ policies for land use, ecosystems, water supplies ....what is the effect on climate?

3. Identify tradeoffs/synergies; create scenarios that maximise sustainability in all these respects.

a. Links land, climate and hydrological modelsb. Combines models written at various institutions in different languages

c. Stores model outcomes traceablyd. Facilitates uncertainty analysis

e. Allows study of feedbacksf. Flexible to answer different questions

So an integrated model is So an integrated model is required that ...required that ...

CIAS 2.0CIAS 2.0Providing climate change and climate change Providing climate change and climate change impacts information for adaptation impacts information for adaptation preparedness and mitigation decisions around preparedness and mitigation decisions around the worldthe world

The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions.

It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC –

and receives additional support from the DTI

CIAS 2.0 Design Features

Involves the stakeholder Community..

Web portal

Uncertainty

Analysis:Parameters

Modules

MULTI:-institutional

-platform-language

Flexibly linked

modularsystem

Feedbacks included

The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions.

It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC –

and receives additional support from the DTI

AVOID is funded by the Department of Energy and Climate Change and the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs

The earlier the peak in emissions, the greater the avoided impacts

% of impacts avoided

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10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Incr

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Flu

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2016-5-L 2030-5-L

The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions.

It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC –

and receives additional support from the DTI

CIAS portal: Managing results

The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions.

It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC –

and receives additional support from the DTI

BASIC STRUCTURE OF CIAS

Emissions

Impacts Downscaledclimate

Climate

Mitigation

Adaptation

Drivers

The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions.

It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC –

and receives additional support from the DTI

BASIC STRUCTURE OF CIAS

Emissions

Impacts Downscaledclimate

Climate

Mitigation

Adaptation

Drivers

The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions.

It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC –

and receives additional support from the DTI

Detail of CIAS (current): simple linear flows

SCM Simple Climate Model

MAGICC6 (UEA, PIK)

Emission scenario

database: emissions

of greenhouse

gases

SCSG Spatial

climate scenario generatorClimGEN

(UEA)

SDSM LiteWeaher Generator

(L’borough)

Wallace Initiative: Impacts on biodiversity

Impacts on crop suitability(James Cook University, WWF US)

Hydrological Models MAC, FiestaChanges in runoff

Water stress(Nottingham, Kings)

Agricultural Model PEGASUSChanges in crop yieldsFarm-scale adaptation

(UEA, McGill)

Degree Day Model(Reading)

SPI Drought indicator(UEA)

The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions.

It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC –

and receives additional support from the DTI

CIAS ERMITAGE COUPLING FLOW (NOW) SCM Simple

Climate Model MAGICC6 (UEA, PIK)

Emission scenario

database: emissions

of greenhouse

gases

SCSG Spatial

climate scenario generatorClimGEN

(UEA)

LPJmLImpacts on vegetation zonesImpacts on crop suitabilityImpacts on water resources

(PIK)

The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions.

It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC –

and receives additional support from the DTI

CIAS ERMITAGE COUPLING FLOW (WP5) SCM Simple

Climate Model MAGICC6 (UEA, PIK)

Emission scenario

database: emissions

of greenhouse

gases

SCSG Spatial

climate scenario generatorClimGEN

(UEA)

LPJmLImpacts on vegetation zones

Impacts on crop yieldsImpacts on water resources

(PIK)

MagPIELnad use change decisions

Crop productivityGreenhouse gas emissions

(PIK)

The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions.

It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC –

and receives additional support from the DTI

CIAS ERMITAGE COUPLING FLOW (WP5)

GENIE Emulator

(OU, UEA)

Emission scenario

database: emissions

of greenhouse

gases

SCSG Spatial climate scenario

generator (UEA)

LPJmLImpacts on vegetation zones

Impacts on crop yieldsImpacts on water resources

(PIK)

MagPIELnad use change decisions

Crop productivityGreenhouse gas emissions

(PIK)

The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions.

It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC –

and receives additional support from the DTI

CIAS ERMITAGE COUPLING FLOW (WP11)

GENIE Emulator

(OU, UEA)

Emission scenario

database: emissions

of greenhouse

gases

SCSG Spatial climate scenario

generator (UEA)

LPJmLImpacts on vegetation zones

Impacts on crop yieldsImpacts on water resources

(PIK)

MagPIELnad use change decisions

Crop productivityGreenhouse gas emissions

(PIK)

REMIND-ROR

TIAMOR GEMINI-E3

Burden Sharing

SimulatorWP10

WP7WP6

WP9

1.There’s a databaseThere’s a metadatabase2. Searchable: S&Q interface3.Web portal that allows uncertainty analysis4.Allows study of feedbacks between models5. Allows linking of models different instiutions in different languages.6. Can link full code, emulator, or executable

Positive features of CIAS ...Positive features of CIAS ...

A.We work together by passing files manually between pairs of models to understand the coupling (as currently in WP5) without feedbacks: consider issues of time-stepping, spatial scalesB.Pass files manually to do feedback and understand science/economics of thisNB New large data base, TDH, is available to help us exchange our data files

To work with CIAS...To work with CIAS...

C. Rupert checks bfg supports language and if not adapt (WP2)D. Sudipta needs to be informed of: (i) scientific coupling between model pairs: test in SoftIAM E. To put the couplings in the portal Sudipta needs then: (ii) the required couplings (iii) output requirements (iv) which input parameters are suitable for uncertainty analysis

To work with To work with CIAS...concurrently CIAS...concurrently

A.Scientific couplings in WP5 close to decided so...B. Couple GENIEemulator into CIASC. Couple LPJemulator into CIASD. GEMINI-E3E. MagPIEF. REMIND-R, TIAM

Possible CIAS sequence to Possible CIAS sequence to WP11..WP11..

A.Magicc6-ClimGEN-LPJmL-MagPIE-Magicc6 (WP5)

B.GENIEEm-LPJmL-MagPIE-GENIEEm C. GEMINIE3-GENIEEm (WP6)

D.REMINDR-MagPIE-LPJmL or TIAM-MagPIE-LPJmL (WP7)

E. REMINDR-GENIEEm (WP8)

F. REMINDR-Magicc6-ClimGEN-LPJmL-MagPIE-REMINDR

etc.

Which couplings can be Which couplings can be created?created?