report to congress 2012

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NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCESNATIONAL ACADEMY OF ENGINEERINGINSTITUTE OF MEDICINENATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL

REPORT TO CONGRESS

2012

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When President Abraham Lincoln signed the congressional charter that created the National Academy of Sciences in 1863, the nation was locked in a bitter Civil War. Yet Congress and the president saw the need for independent, expert scientific and technical advice; one of our first studies recommended ways to improve navigation for the Union’s fleet of ironclad warships.

In 2013, the Academy — which has expanded to include the National Research Council, National Academy of Engineering, and Institute of Medicine — celebrates 150 years of service to the nation at a time when science, engineering, and medicine are more essential than ever for prosperity and security, not only in the U.S. but around the world.

Today’s dramatic breakthroughs in science, technology, and medicine would not be possible without the contributions of world-class research universities. However, a 2012 report by the National Research Council warns that U.S. research universities are in danger of serious decline. The report calls on the federal and state governments, industry, and universities to each do its part to ensure that our research universities continue to be critical wellsprings of progress.

Tackling the obesity epidemic is one of the nation’s best opportunities to prevent premature death and chronic diseases such as diabetes while also lowering skyrocketing health care costs. An ambitious report issued by the Institute of Medicine in 2012 sifts through more than 800 obesity prevention recommendations and identifies those that could work together most effectively to speed change.

Late in 2012, the federal government asked the National Academy of Sciences to take on a new, 30-year research initiative focused on human health and environmental protection in the Gulf of Mexico. To be funded over a period of years as a result of the settlements between the Department of Justice and BP and Transocean Deepwater Inc., the program will include issues concerning the safety of offshore oil drilling and hydrocarbon production and transportation in the region. As we do with all of our work, we will draw upon the expertise of the nation’s most knowledgeable scientists, engineers, health professionals, and other experts.

Throughout our history, NAS, NAE, IOM, and the Research Council have provided independent, authoritative advice on science, engineering, and medicine. This Report to Congress summarizes a selection of studies issued in 2012. We look forward to continuing in this tradition of service to the nation.

RALPH J. CICERONE CHARLES M. VEST HARVEY V. FINEBERGPresident President PresidentNational Academy of Sciences National Academy of Engineering Institute of MedicineChair Vice ChairNational Research Council National Research Council

A Message From the Presidents

SCIENCE, ENGINEERING, AND SECURITY

Disaster Resilience: A National Imperative 5

Weather Services for the Nation: Becoming Second to None 5

Climate and Social Stress: Implications for Security Analysis 6

Managing for High-Quality Science and Engineering at the NNSA National Security Laboratories 7

Evaluation of the Updated Site-Specific Risk Assessment for the National Bio- and Agro-Defense Facility in Manhattan, Kansas 8

Meeting Critical Laboratory Needs for Animal Agriculture: Examination of Three Options 8

The Safety Promise and Challenge of Automotive Electronics: Insights From Unintended Acceleration 9

NASA’s Strategic Direction and the Need for a National Consensus 10

The Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty: Technical Issues for the United States 11

Making Sense of Ballistic Missile Defense: An Assessment of Concepts and Systems for U.S. Boost-Phase Missile Defense in Comparison to Other Alternatives 11

EDUCATION AND SOCIAL ISSUES

Research Universities and the Future of America: Ten Breakthrough Actions Vital to Our Nation’s Prosperity and Security 14

Education for Life and Work: Developing Transferable Knowledge and Skills in the 21st Century 15

Monitoring Progress Toward Successful K-12 STEM Education: A Nation Advancing? 15

Aging and the Macroeconomy: Long-Term Implications of an Older Population 16

Deterrence and the Death Penalty 17

Options for Estimating Illegal Entries at the U.S.-Mexico Border 18

Selected Studies Highlights of

HEALTH AND SAFETY

Accelerating Progress in Obesity Prevention: Solving the Weight of the Nation 20

Best Care at Lower Cost: The Path to Continuously Learning Health Care in America 20

Treatment for Posttraumatic Stress Disorder in Military and Veteran Populations: Initial Assessment 21

The Mental Health and Substance Use Workforce for Older Adults: In Whose Hands? 22

Substance Use Disorders in the U.S. Armed Forces 22

Geographic Adjustment in Medicare Payment, Phase II: Implications for Access, Quality, and Efficiency 23

NATURAL RESOURCES AND THE ENVIRONMENT

Sustainable Water and Environmental Management in the California Bay-Delta 26

Sea-Level Rise for the Coasts of California, Oregon, and Washington: Past, Present, and Future 26

Review of the EPA’s Economic Analysis of Final Water Quality Standards for Nutrients for Lakes and Flowing Waters in Florida 27

Water Reuse: Potential for Expanding the Nation’s Water Supply Through Reuse of Municipal Wastewater 28

Alternatives for Managing the Nation’s Complex Contaminated Groundwater Sites 29

Sustainable Development of Algal Biofuels in the United States 29

Also in This ReportStudies and Projects Completed in 2012 31

Current Congressionally Authorized Activities 42

Revenue Applied to 2012 50

About the National Academies 51

Highlights of

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BEFORE DISASTER STRIKES

Communities and the nation have difficult choices

about the best ways to ensure basic security

and quality of life in the face of natural hazards

or deliberate terrorist attacks. The stakes are

high: The economic damage caused by just one

natural disaster in 2012 — Hurricane Sandy — is

estimated in the tens of billions of dollars. And in

2011, disasters caused approximately $55 billion

in damages.

Without innovations to improve resilience,

the cost of disasters will continue to rise both

in absolute dollar amounts and in losses to

social, cultural, and environmental systems at

the community level, says Disaster Resilience: A

National Imperative. The report calls on the U.S.

to formulate a national vision for increasing the

country’s ability to prepare, respond, and recover,

with complementary federal policies and locally

driven actions.

The U.S. Department of Homeland Security,

in conjunction with other stakeholders, should

develop a national resilience scorecard to help

communities assess their resilience and track

improvements, the report says. The scorecard

should be adaptable to focus specifically on the

hazards that threaten each community and should

measure both the ability of critical infrastructure

to withstand and recover from impacts of

earthquakes, floods, severe storms, or other

disasters and the social, economic, cultural, and

environmental capabilities of the community to

respond and recover.

Improving resilience should be seen as a long-

term process, but it can be coordinated around

measurable short-term goals. The report identifies

universal steps that all communities can take to

improve their disaster resilience, such as adopting

and enforcing building codes and standards

appropriate to existing local hazards.

The study by the National Academy of

Sciences, National Academy of Engineering, and

Institute of Medicine was funded by the U.S.

Army Corps of Engineers, U.S. Forest Service, U.S.

Department of Energy, National Oceanic and

Atmospheric Administration, U.S. Department

of Homeland Security, Federal Emergency

Management Agency, U.S. Geological Survey,

NASA, and Oak Ridge National Laboratory/

Community and Regional Resilience Institute.

A MODERN NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE

More than a decade ago, the National Weather

Service completed a major modernization effort

that involved upgrading weather observing and

forecast systems and reorganizing the agency’s

http://www.nap.edu/catalog.php?record_id=13457


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field office structure. While the effort led to

significant improvements, the agency must still

keep pace with science and technology, meet

expanding user needs, and partner with other

weather, water, and climate-related institutions.

To meet these challenges, NWS should evolve

and change how it operates by prioritizing core

capabilities, evaluating its structure, and broadening

collaboration and cooperation with other

institutions, says Weather Services for the Nation:

Becoming Second to None. Embracing such changes

could allow NWS to keep up with technological

advances and provide quality services.

The agency’s challenges are exacerbated

by uncertain and constrained budget resources

and increasingly high operational performance

standards. NWS should prioritize the capabilities

that only it can provide — such as collecting and

integrating observations and issuing forecasts,

watches, and warnings, the report says.

The NWS’s capacity to serve the public would

be broadened by increasing its collaboration

and cooperation with other public and private

weather, water, and climate organizations.

Strengthening its engineering and procurement

processes for major systems — including ground-

based sensor, gauge, and radar networks;

satellites and ground processing; and major

communications and processing systems —

would also amplify NWS’s capabilities.

The National Research Council study was

funded by the U.S. Department of Commerce.

CLIMATE CHANGE AND SECURITY

Much of the discussion about climate change

has focused on such effects as floods, droughts,

sea-level rise, and storm surges. But could these

climate-related events also pose a threat to U.S.

national security?

Climate and Social Stress: Implications for

Security Analysis says that those events could

indeed disrupt social and economic systems in

other countries, which in turn would pose security

risks to the United States. Security threats are

most likely to occur in regions with vulnerable

populations, weak infrastructure, limited response

capacities, and possible political instability.

The U.S. intelligence community should

monitor for and estimate the likelihood of

potentially disruptive climate-related events and

the ability of countries and regions of security

importance to the U.S. to cope with them, the

report says. Taking into account the key variables

that affect exposure and vulnerabilities, the

intelligence community should conduct periodic

“stress testing” for countries, regions, and






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critical global systems that are identified as both

vulnerable to the effects of climate change and

important to U.S. national security. In addition

to assessing the likely effects of potentially

disruptive climate events and whether they could

threaten security, these assessments could also

be used by the U.S. government or international

aid agencies to identify and perhaps help high-

risk areas reduce susceptibility or improve

response capacities to climate-related changes,

the report says.


funded by the U.S. intelligence community.

MANAGEMENT AT NATIONAL SECURITY

LABORATORIES

The National Nuclear Security Administration

looks to its security laboratories for scientific,

technical, and engineering expertise in managing

the nation’s nuclear weapons stockpile. However,

growing concerns about the overall quality of

science and engineering (S&E) work at the Los

Alamos, Sandia, and Lawrence Livermore national

laboratories prompted Congress to ask the

National Research Council for an independent

review. The first phase of the study addressed

management concerns at the laboratories; a

second phase is examining S&E quality.

Scientists and engineers at these laboratories

appear committed to their work and core

mission, says Managing for High-Quality Science

and Engineering at the NNSA National Security

Laboratories, a report on the first phase of the

study. However, a “broken relationship” between

the National Nuclear Security Administration

and the labs threatens to erode the quality of

the scientific research and engineering being

conducted there.

An intrusive degree of oversight stemming

from past security and safety concerns at one of

the labs has led to a breakdown of trust, the report

says. However, the change in management and

operations contractors at Los Alamos and Lawrence

Livermore in 2006 and 2007 — while stressful

and adding some $100 million annually to each

laboratory’s overhead — is not the root cause of

this problem.

Safety and security systems at the laboratories

have been strengthened to the point where

the labs no longer require special attention,

the report says. An understanding is needed

to rebalance the relationship and rebuild trust

between NNSA and lab management. In addition,

Congress should support the broadening of the

laboratories’ missions into other areas of national

security research, which would potentially





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increase the laboratories’ appeal to top-quality

scientists and engineers.

The Research Council study is being funded by

the National Nuclear Security Administration.

ANIMAL DISEASE RESEARCH NEEDS

Proper detection, diagnosis, and response to

outbreaks of animal disease are essential to

protecting public health, the food supply, and

animal agriculture. Currently the aging Plum

Island Animal Disease Center located off Long

Island conducts large-animal disease research,

but it is too small to meet the nation’s needs.

And the facility does not have Biosafety Level 4

laboratory capability, which is essential for working

with exotic and dangerous agents that affect

both humans and animals and at present have no

vaccine or treatment available.

The U.S. Department of Homeland Security

selected Manhattan, Kansas, as the site for a new

facility, the National Bio- and Agro-Defense Facility

(NBAF), and in 2010 the department published

a risk assessment of that site. At the request of

Congress, the National Research Council reviewed

the assessment and found it contained flawed

methods and assumptions in determining the

possibility and costs of an accidental pathogen

release. In response, Congress mandated that DHS

revise its assessment to address the shortcomings

and directed the Research Council to evaluate the

updated assessment.

Evaluation of the Updated Site-Specific Risk

Assessment for the National Bio- and Agro-

Defense Facility in Manhattan, Kansas says that

while the revised assessment is a significant

improvement over the original, there are still a

number of technical deficiencies, and the analysis

inadequately characterizes risks associated with

operating NBAF at the proposed site. DHS’s

assessment underestimates the possibility of an

accidental pathogen release, and some of the

risk analysis methods were misinterpreted and

misapplied during analysis.

Another Research Council report on the

proposed facility, Meeting Critical Laboratory

Needs for Animal Agriculture: Examination of Three

Options, explores constructing NBAF as designed,

building a scaled-back version, or maintaining

current capabilities at the Plum Island center

while conducting Biosafety Level 4 large-animal

operations at capable foreign laboratories.

Out of these options, the report concludes

that constructing NBAF as designed or as a scaled-

back version could meet the nation’s needs in the

long term. However, the proposed as-designed

facility would cost a considerable $1.14 billion








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and does not leverage existing national resources

for high-level biocontainment. With the second

option, a partnership between a central national

laboratory of reduced scope and size and a

distributed laboratory network can effectively

protect the United States, potentially save money,

reduce redundancies while increasing efficiencies,

and enhance the cohesiveness of a national system

of biocontainment laboratories. However, the cost

implications of reducing the scope and capacity

of a central facility are not known. The third

option, maintaining the Plum Island facility, would

come with substantial costs, and there could be

logistical difficulties in partnering with international

laboratories, especially during an emergency. The

report stresses that Plum Island should remain in

operation until a suitable replacement opens.

Since the reports were released, DHS has

issued a contract to build a central utility that will

serve the planned national laboratory in Kansas.

Both studies were funded by the U.S.

Department of Homeland Security.

BETTER OVERSIGHT OF VEHICLE

ELECTRONIC SYSTEMS

In recent years, the National Highway Traffic Safety

Administration received numerous complaints

about Toyota vehicles accelerating suddenly

without warning, leading to accidents and injuries.

Some motorists suspected faulty electronic throttle

systems, but NHTSA attributed the problem to

drivers pressing the gas pedal by mistake or to

gas pedals sticking or getting entrapped in floor

mats. Although a subsequent investigation by

NASA would support those conclusions, persistent

questions led NHTSA to ask the National Research

Council to examine the issue.

NHTSA’s decision to close its investigation of

Toyota’s electronic throttle systems was justified,

concludes The Safety Promise and Challenge of

Automotive Electronics: Insights From Unintended

Acceleration. However, the entire incident

underscores the increasing role of electronic

systems in automobiles and the new safety

oversight challenges that the agency must be

prepared to meet.

It is “troubling” that NHTSA could not

convincingly address public concerns about

the safety of automotive electronics, the report

says, especially since electronic throttle systems

are relatively simple technologies. To respond


http://www.trb.org/main/blurbs/166563.aspx



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effectively and confidently to claims of defects

in the more complex electronic systems, both in

present-day and future vehicles, NHTSA will require

access to additional specialized technical expertise.

The report recommends that NHTSA

establish a standing technical advisory panel of

individuals with backgrounds central to the design,

development, and safety assurance of automotive

electronics systems. NHTSA should also conduct

a comprehensive review to determine the specific

capabilities needed to monitor and investigate

flaws in electronics-intensive vehicles.

Since the report was released, NHTSA has

appointed and convened the recommended

expert panel.

The Research Council study was funded by

NHTSA.

NEW DIRECTION FOR NASA

NASA’s endeavors in human spaceflight, Earth and

space science, and aeronautics are hampered by

a mismatch between the programs to which the

agency is committed and the budgets provided.

The pace and approach to a number of NASA’s

programs, projects, and activities will not be

sustainable if the NASA budget remains flat.

Without national agreement on the agency’s

strategic goals and objectives, NASA cannot be

expected to establish or work toward achieving

long-term priorities, says NASA’s Strategic Direction

and the Need for a National Consensus. The White

House should take the lead in forging a new

consensus on NASA’s future in order to more closely

align the agency’s budget and objectives and

remove restrictions impeding efficient operations.

The report notes, for example, that an interim

goal of NASA’s human spaceflight program is

to visit an asteroid by 2025. However, there is

limited evidence that the goal is widely accepted

by NASA’s own work force, by the nation as a

whole, or by the international community. Such

lack of consensus as well as budget uncertainty

has undermined NASA’s ability to guide program

planning and allocate funding.

To reduce the discrepancy between the

overall size of NASA’s budget and its current

portfolio of missions, facilities, and personnel, the

report identifies options the nation could pursue,

including instituting an aggressive restructuring

program and engaging in more cost-sharing

enterprises with other agencies, the private sector,

and international partners.


funded by NASA.




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A SAFE NUCLEAR WEAPONS STOCKPILE

First proposed nearly 50 years ago, the

Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty

would prohibit nuclear-explosion testing in all

environments and establish a global network of

monitoring stations to help track compliance.

The treaty will enter into force after ratification by

the 44 countries that possessed nuclear power or

research reactors in 1996 and participated in the

treaty’s negotiation. The U.S. Senate considered

and declined to provide consent to ratifying the

treaty in 1999, although the U.S. has observed a

testing moratorium since October 1992.

The Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty:

Technical Issues for the United States finds that the

U.S. is now in a better position than at any time

in the past to maintain a safe and effective nuclear

weapons stockpile without testing and to monitor

clandestine nuclear testing abroad. The report

does not take a stand on whether the U.S. should

ratify the treaty.

U.S. global monitoring capabilities are superior

to those of the International Monitoring System

(IMS), which is now nearly complete, and can

focus on countries of national concern. However,

the United States should support the completion

and operation of the IMS regardless of whether

the treaty enters into force, the report says. The

IMS provides valuable data to the U.S., both as a

common baseline for international assessment and

as a way of revealing potential violations when the

U.S. needs to keep its own data classified.

Technologies for detecting clandestine testing

have improved significantly in the past decade.

And although weapons threats could arise without

being detected even if a test ban existed, they

would not require the U.S. to return to weapons

testing in order to respond.


funded by the U.S. Department of Energy, U.S.

Department of State, Carnegie Corporation of New

York, and National Academy of Sciences.

IMPROVING U.S. MISSILE DEFENSE

U.S. missile defense systems are designed to protect

the U.S. homeland, military forces, and allies against

nuclear or conventional ballistic missile attacks

from regional actors such as Iran or North Korea.

One such system is known as boost-phase missile

defense, which is supposed to shoot down enemy

missiles immediately following their launch.

Making Sense of Ballistic Missile Defense: An

Assessment of Concepts and Systems for U.S. Boost-

Phase Missile Defense in Comparison to Other

Alternatives says to more effectively defend against

ballistic missile attacks, the U.S. should concentrate








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on defense systems that intercept enemy missiles

in midcourse.

While boost-phase systems are theoretically

possible, they are not “practical or feasible”

because they would have only a few minutes in

which to intercept enemy missiles during the boost

phase, and air- or ground-based systems generally

cannot be located close enough to potential

threats to be effective. Space-based interceptors

of boost-phase launches would require hundreds

of satellites and cost as much as $500 billion to

acquire and operate over a 20-year span — at

least 10 times as much as any other approach, the

report estimates.

Midcourse defense systems provide more

battle space for multiple opportunities to identify

and shoot down targets, the report says. Currently,

the Ground-Based Midcourse Defense (GMD)

system, which deploys 30 midcourse interceptors

at military bases in Alaska and California, provides

an “early but fragile” U.S. homeland defense

capability for a potential threat from North Korea.

However, the GMD has limited ability to defend

the U.S. from missiles launched by countries

other than North Korea, and current planned

improvements will not adequately address these.

To overcome these shortcomings, the report

recommends adding a third interceptor site to

the U.S. Northeast and several technical fixes

to make the GMD both more effective and less

expensive, such as developing smaller but more

capable interceptor missiles using already tested

technologies and employing a suite of X-band

radar components at five existing early-warning

radar sites. Provided that the U.S. GMD system

is improved, then the final phase of the program

in Europe — aimed at preventing long-range

missiles launched in Iran from reaching the U.S.

— should be canceled. This phase would be

unnecessary for European defense and less than

optimal for U.S. protection.

Since the report was released, the Obama

administration has canceled the last phase of the

program in Europe.


funded by the U.S. Missile Defense Agency.

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U.S. RESEARCH UNIVERSITIES

For more than a century, U.S. research universities

have been incubators for American prosperity

and ingenuity. Research at these institutions

has played an essential role in the development

of game-changing inventions such as lasers,

computers, and blood thinners. And graduates

have created and propelled businesses that

employ millions of Americans.

While U.S. research universities are still among

the best in the world, they are in danger of serious

decline, warns Research Universities and the Future

of America: Ten Breakthrough Actions Vital to Our

Nation’s Prosperity and Security. The report urges

the federal government, states, industries, and

universities to renew a long tradition of strong,

mutually beneficial partnerships.

Universities are facing critical challenges that

threaten to erode the quality of research and

education these institutions can provide, the report

says. Federal funding for research has flattened

or declined. State funding has also dropped over

the last decade — by more than 20 percent on

average and by as much as 50 percent in some

cases. At the same time, other countries have

increased R&D funding and are pouring significant

resources into their own institutions.

To address these issues, Congress and the

administration should fully fund the America

COMPETES Act, which would double the level of

basic research supported by the National Science

Foundation and other federal agencies.

As budgets recover from the recession, state

governments should strive to restore and maintain

per-student funding for higher education to levels

equal to the period of 1987-2002, as adjusted for

inflation. Businesses, which have long relied on

research universities for talent and technology,

should also partner with universities in early-stage

research and graduate education.

The report calls on the nation’s research

universities to significantly increase their cost-

effectiveness and productivity while raising

graduation rates, reducing the time needed to

complete degrees, and aligning doctoral programs

with careers.


funded by the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation, John D.

and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation, National

Science Foundation, and U.S. Department of Energy.





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TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY KNOWLEDGE

AND SKILLS

Business, political, and educational leaders are

increasingly calling on schools to teach students a

range of broad skills they will need to navigate a

rapidly changing world — skills such as problem

solving, critical thinking, and communication. Such

skills are often referred to as “21st century skills” or

“deeper learning.”

These skills are best developed within the

teaching and learning of academic subjects and are

key to helping students master academic subject

matter, says Education for Life and Work: Developing

Transferable Knowledge and Skills in the 21st

Century. By engaging in deeper learning, students

go beyond rote learning of facts and procedures

to understand underlying principles. They develop

knowledge and skills that can be transferred to

solve new problems and navigate new situations in

a subject area.

This type of learning will be needed to meet

the goals set by the new state standards for

English language arts, mathematics, and science.

But creating school environments that support

deeper learning and the development of 21st

century competencies in these disciplines will

require changes in teaching methods, curricula,

and assessments.

The federal and state governments should

support this shift, establishing policies and

programs to help students develop transferable

knowledge and skills. For example, in reauthorizing

the Elementary and Secondary Education

Act, Congress should support the systemic

development, implementation, and evaluation of

measures to facilitate deeper learning and students’

development of 21st century competencies.


funded by the Carnegie Corporation of New York,

William and Flora Hewlett Foundation, John D. and

Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation, Nellie Mae

Education Foundation, Pearson Foundation, Raikes

Foundation, Susan Crown Exchange Fund, and

Stupski Foundation.

MONITORING PROGRESS IN STEM

EDUCATION

Many states are adopting rigorous common core

standards in mathematics and science for students

in kindergarten through grade 12. These new

policy initiatives provide an opportunity to address

challenges that have been identified in students’

performance and persistence in these fields.

Monitoring Progress Toward Successful K-12

STEM Education: A Nation Advancing? proposes

a set of indicators that can be used by school







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districts, states, and federal agencies to monitor

progress and improve education in science,

technology, engineering, and mathematics. Each

indicator is linked directly to a recommendation

from a 2011 National Research Council report

that has informed the development of the core

standards. The proposed indicators focus on key

aspects of teaching and learning rather than on

administrative or enrollment data. Over time, they

would measure progress in students’ access to

quality learning, educators’ capacity to teach STEM

subjects, and policy and funding initiatives for

STEM education.

The report offers a framework for a national

reporting and monitoring system that would

measure student knowledge, interest, and

participation in the STEM disciplines; track local,

state, and federal investments in K-12 STEM

education; provide information about the STEM

education work force; and facilitate strategic

planning for federal investments and work-force

development. If implemented, such a monitoring

system could provide needed data to make informed

decisions about improving K-12 STEM education.

The Research Council study was funded by the

National Science Foundation.

ECONOMICS OF AN AGING NATION

The demographic profile of the United States is

undergoing a major shift to an older population.

While much focus has been on aging baby

boomers, the trend is likely to persist well into future

generations. An aging population will have broad

economic consequences for the country, particularly

for federal programs that support the elderly.

The nation has many good options for

responding to population aging, but the

transition to sustainable policies will be smoother

and less costly if steps are taken now, says Aging

and the Macroeconomy: Long-Term Implications of

an Older Population.

Together, the costs of Social Security, Medicare,

and Medicaid currently total roughly 40 percent

of all federal spending and 10 percent of the

nation’s gross domestic product. Because of overall

longer life expectancy and lower birth rates, these

programs will have more beneficiaries with relatively

fewer workers contributing to support them in the

coming decades. Population aging will drive up

public health care expenditures and make these

programs unsustainable unless action is taken.

Adapting to this new economic landscape

entails costs and policy options with different

implications for the different generations that will

bear the costs or receive the benefits. According





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to the report, the ultimate national response will

likely be some combination of major structural

changes to public support programs, more savings

during people’s working years, and longer working

lives. In addition, workers can better prepare for

retirement by planning ahead and adapting their

saving and spending habits.


funded by the U.S. Department of Treasury with

supplemental funding from the National Institute

on Aging.

DETERRENCE AND THE DEATH PENALTY

For decades, researchers have tried to determine

whether the death penalty deters murder. Though

many studies have attempted to provide the

answer, they offer conflicting results.

Deterrence and the Death Penalty concludes

that the research to date does not provide

evidence for or against the proposition that the

death penalty affects homicide rates and should

not serve as a basis to inform policy decisions.

What’s more, the studies are not asking the right

question: Is capital punishment more effective as

a deterrent than alternative punishments, such

as a life sentence without the possibility of parole?

The report finds that studies on the death

penalty thus far are based on implausible or

unsupported assumptions about potential

murderers’ perceptions of and response to capital

punishment. Many studies have simply assumed

that potential murderers respond to the actual

risk of execution, though there is no basis for that

assumption. Moreover, determining the actual risk

poses great complexities even for well-informed

researchers, let alone would-be murderers. For

instance, only 15 percent of people who have been

sentenced to death since 1976 have actually been

executed, and a large fraction of death sentences

are reversed.

These intrinsic shortcomings severely limit

what can be learned from the existing research, the

report says. Researchers should collect data that

consider both capital and noncapital punishments

for murder and use statistical methods based on

more credible assumptions about the effect of

capital punishment on homicide rates.


funded by the Tides Foundation, Proteus Action

League, and National Institute of Justice.



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SECURITY AT THE U.S.-MEXICO BORDER

To better secure and manage the border

between the United States and Mexico, the U.S.

Department of Homeland Security has stepped up

its enforcement efforts over the past decade. While

the number of unauthorized migrants apprehended

at the border has decreased during that time,

one cannot attribute the decrease to enforcement

without an estimate of the number of attempted

border crossings during the same period.

Options for Estimating Illegal Entries at the U.S.-

Mexico Border finds that making such an estimate

will require modeling approaches that combine

data from existing U.S. and Mexican household,

migration, and border crossing surveys with data

from DHS’s enforcement database. In order to

develop, refine, and continually validate such

complex modeling approaches, DHS will need

to engage with the broader scientific community

and make its data widely available to researchers.

DHS could use a variety of approaches to protect

potentially sensitive information in the database.

The National Research Council study was funded

by the U.S. Department of Homeland Security.



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HEALTH AND SAFETY

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AMERICA’S WEIGHT PROBLEM

Almost one-third of children and two-thirds

of adults in the U.S. are overweight or obese,

conditions that have been linked to chronic medical

problems such as diabetes, hypertension, and

cardiovascular disease. Nearly 21 percent of U.S.

annual medical spending is directed to obesity-

related diseases; childhood obesity alone accounts

for than $14 billion in direct medical costs.

America has been too slow in arresting its

obesity epidemic, says Accelerating Progress in

Obesity Prevention: Solving the Weight of the Nation.

Addressing this complex, stubborn problem

requires a comprehensive set of solutions that work

together to spur across-the-board societal changes.

The report focuses on five critical goals for

preventing obesity: integrating physical activity

into people’s daily lives, making healthy food

and beverage options available everywhere,

transforming marketing and messages about

nutrition and activity, making schools a national

focal point for obesity prevention, and galvanizing

employers and health care professionals to

support healthy lifestyles. More than 800 obesity

prevention recommendations were assessed to

identify those that could work together most

effectively, reinforce one another’s impact, and

accelerate obesity prevention.

Strategies are identified with the greatest

potential to speed success by making healthy

foods and beverages and opportunities for physical

activity easy, routine, and appealing aspects of

daily life. For example, the report says, 60 minutes

per day of physical activity in schools and increased

availability of lower-calorie, healthier options for

children in restaurants are two important ways to

accelerate change.

The Institute of Medicine study was funded by

the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation.

MORE BANG FOR HEALTH CARE DOLLARS

The U.S. spends considerably more on health care

than other industrialized nations. However, about

30 percent of U.S. health spending in 2009 —

roughly $750 billion — was wasted on unnecessary

services, excessive administrative costs, fraud,

and other problems. Moreover, inefficiencies

cause needless suffering. By one estimate, roughly

75,000 deaths in 2005 might have been avoided if

every state had delivered care at the quality level of

the best performing state.

The fact is, the nation’s health care system

has become too complex and costly to continue

business as usual, says Best Care at Lower Cost: The

Path to Continuously Learning Health Care in America.

Achieving better, more affordable care will require

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system-wide changes that marshal advances in

science and technology to help transform the U.S.

health system into a “learning” system — one that

improves through transferring knowledge from

every care experience and new research discovery.

Better use of data is a critical element of a

continuously improving health system, the report

says. The health care system needs to embrace

new technologies to collect and tap clinical data

at the point of care and engage patients and their

families as partners. Mobile technologies and

electronic health records offer significant potential

to capture and share health data better.

In addition, health economists, researchers,

professional societies, and insurance providers

should work together on ways to measure

quality performance and design new payment

models and incentives that reward high-value

care. Increased transparency about the costs and

outcomes of care also boosts opportunities to

learn and improve and should be a hallmark of

institutions’ organizational cultures.

The Institute of Medicine study was funded

by Blue Shield of California Foundation, Charina

Endowment Fund, and Robert Wood Johnson

Foundation.

TREATING PTSD IN THE MILITARY

Blast injuries and posttraumatic stress disorder

have been called the “signature injuries” of the

wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, with recent estimates

of PTSD among deployed service members at

around 13 percent to 20 percent. Congress asked

the Institute of Medicine to examine the military’s

ongoing efforts in treating PTSD.

The U.S. departments of Defense and Veterans

Affairs offer many programs and services for

PTSD, but treatment isn’t reaching everyone who

needs it, concludes Treatment for Posttraumatic

Stress Disorder in Military and Veteran Populations:

Initial Assessment. DOD and VA should ensure that

service members and veterans who have PTSD

have timely access to evidence-based care.

Of the U.S. service members and veterans who

have served in Iraq and Afghanistan and screened

positive for PTSD symptoms, about 40 percent

have received a referral for additional evaluation

or treatment, and of those referred, about 65

percent go on to receive treatment, the report

notes. Although DOD and VA are making efforts

to reduce barriers to care, many obstacles remain.

For example, patients may not seek care because

of concerns that doing so will adversely affect their

military career or because they need to travel long

distances to reach a mental health provider. And

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providers might find it difficult to treat patients

because of lack of training or time or location issues.

DOD and VA should track better the

treatments that are given to patients as well as

their outcomes. The departments should also

institute research to evaluate the effectiveness of

their PTSD programs and services and disseminate

the findings widely. The report adds that PTSD

screening should be conducted at least once a year

for service members and veterans.

A second phase of the study, due in 2014,

will evaluate the success of specific programs and

services used to treat PTSD.

The Institute of Medicine study is being funded

by U.S. Department of Defense.

SUBSTANCE ABUSE AND MENTAL HEALTH

Many Americans find it difficult to receive proper

treatment for substance abuse and mental health

disorders. Two reports by the Institute of Medicine

examine the scope of these conditions among two

segments of the population: older Americans and

military service members.

The Mental Health and Substance Use Workforce

for Older Adults: In Whose Hands? says that unless

there is a major effort to significantly boost the

number of health professionals and other service

providers able to supply care for mental health

and substance misuse or abuse, millions of baby

boomers will likely face difficulties getting diagnoses

and treatment as the population ages. Nearly one

in five older Americans has one or more of these

conditions, which, left untreated, can result in

higher medical costs and poorer health outcomes.

The U.S. Department of Health and Human

Services leadership needs to promote national

attention to building a sufficient, well-trained work

force to meet the growing demand, the report

says. Organizations that accredit health and social

service professional schools and license providers

should ensure that all who see older patients —

including primary care physicians, nurses, and

social workers — are able to recognize signs and

symptoms of mental health conditions, neglect,

and substance misuse and abuse and provide at

least basic care.

The report calls for a redesign of Medicare and

Medicaid to guarantee coverage of counseling,

care management, and other types of services

crucial for treating mental health conditions and

substance use problems.

A similar situation hampers care for military

service members dealing with problems related

to misuse or abuse of alcohol and other drugs,

according to Substance Use Disorders in the U.S.

Armed Forces.

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Although data show prescription drug misuse

and binge drinking among military members

are on the rise, TRICARE — the military’s health

insurance provider — does not cover several

evidence-based treatments that are now standard

practice, including long-term use of certain

medications for the treatment of addiction. It also

does not cover treatment delivered in settings

other than specialized rehabilitation facilities.

TRICARE’s benefits should be revised to cover

maintenance medications and treatment in office-

based outpatient settings delivered by a range of

qualified providers.

Military health care professionals at all levels

need training to recognize patterns of substance

abuse and misuse as well as clear guidelines for

referring patients to specialists, the report says. The

U.S. Department of Defense should promote care

provided by a multidisciplinary team with carefully

prescribed roles and training, to include office-

based outpatient providers. This approach could

help alleviate the provider shortage created by the

military’s reliance on specialty clinics.

The armed forces should promote more

effective prevention strategies, moving away from

a permissive attitude toward alcohol by enforcing

regulations on underage drinking and reducing

the availability of alcohol on bases. They should

also work to ease the stigma that deters service

members from seeking care. Including screening

and intervention services within primary care

would help achieve this goal and increase the

number of places where service members and

families can receive basic care for these problems.

Both studies were funded by the U.S.

Department of Health and Human Services;

Substance Use Disorders in the U.S. Armed Forces was

also funded by the U.S. Department of Defense.

GEOGRAPHIC ADJUSTMENTS TO

MEDICARE PAYMENTS

Medicare is the largest payer of health care services

in the U.S., spending about $525 billion annually.

Although Medicare is a national program, it adjusts

payments to hospitals and health care practitioners

according to the geographic location in which

they provide service, acknowledging that the

cost of doing business varies around the country.

Federal law requires geographic adjustments to

be budget neutral, meaning any increase in the

amount paid to one hospital or practitioner must

be offset by a decrease to others so that national

payment remains level. In 2011 an Institute of

Medicine report recommended changing the way

that Medicare payments are adjusted to account

for these regional differences.

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A second report, Geographic Adjustment in

Medicare Payment, Phase II: Implications for Access,

Quality, and Efficiency, says that the proposed

recommendations would also improve the technical

accuracy of Medicare payments, which would

increase or decrease by less than 5 percent on

average for the majority of hospitals and most

physicians. However, those seemingly small

percentages could make significant differences to

certain providers and organizations, the report adds.

Given the relatively modest payment changes

that would occur in many regions and given that

geographic adjustments are only one factor in

setting Medicare reimbursements, revising these

calculations may not have a significant overall

impact on the distribution of providers and on

improving care access and quality in medically

underserved areas, the report says. It offered

several strategies that would be more effective

at boosting access to care than geographic

payment adjustments.

The Institute of Medicine study was funded by

the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services,

U.S. Department of Health and Human Services.




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NATURAL RESOURCESAND THE ENVIRONMENT

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SUSTAINABLE MANAGEMENT OF

CALIFORNIA’S BAY-DELTA

California’s Bay-Delta supplies water to agriculture

and metropolitan areas in much of the state. Over

time, the delta has been substantially modified to

meet growing demands, and this has affected the

delta’s ecosystem and wildlife.

Sustainable Water and Environmental

Management in the California Bay-Delta says that

the state’s simultaneous goals of attaining a

reliable water supply for California and protecting

and rehabilitating the delta’s ecosystem have

value, but better planning is required to identify

how trade-offs between these two goals will be

managed when water supplies are short. Failure

to acknowledge the increasing likelihood of water

scarcity in the area and craft plans and policies that

address this has made delta water management

more difficult than is necessary, the report says.

The extensive physical and ecological changes to

the delta over the last century make it impossible

to restore the habitat to its pre-disturbance state.

Overall, moving toward environmental

sustainability while continuing to supply the state

with water will require careful decision making.

Better definition and management of water

scarcity, increased collaboration between the

numerous agencies and organizations that oversee

the delta, and strategies to mitigate environmental

stressors that affect delta wildlife all will be needed.

In addition, the report says, an assessment of the

effects of climate change and projected sea-level

rise is essential, along with a comprehensive review

of water planning and management in anticipation

of future environmental and water supply needs.


funded by the U.S. Department of the Interior.

SEA-LEVEL RISE ON THE WEST COAST

A warming planet triggered a rise in global sea

levels during the 20th century, and projections

suggest sea levels will rise at a higher rate over the

next 100 years. California, Oregon, and Washington

each have hundreds of miles of shoreline close to

valuable infrastructure, development, and wetlands

vulnerable to rising sea levels. The three states asked

the National Research Council to assess how the

region would be affected.

Sea-Level Rise for the Coasts of California,

Oregon, and Washington: Past, Present, and Future

projects that the sea level off most of California

is expected to rise about 1 meter over the next

century, an amount slightly higher than projected

for global sea levels. Sea levels off Washington,

Oregon, and northern California will likely rise

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of time. The report estimates a global sea-level

rise of 50 to 140 centimeters by 2100, which

is substantially higher than the United Nations

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s

projection made in 2007.

With climate change, the number and duration

of extreme storm surges and high waves are

expected to escalate, and this, combined with

sea-level rise, increases the risk of flooding, coastal

erosion, and wetland loss, the report says. And

extreme events such as a magnitude 8 or greater

earthquake could raise sea level off Washington

and Oregon much faster than the rates projected.


funded by the states of California, Washington,

and Oregon; National Oceanic and Atmospheric

Administration; U.S. Geological Survey; and U.S.

Army Corps of Engineers.

FLORIDA’S WATER QUALITY RULE

Hundreds of waterways in Florida are contaminated

by excess nutrients such as nitrogen and

phosphorus, mainly from agricultural runoff.

Florida manages its waterways by using “narrative”

criteria, which use words to describe pollution

limits. In 2009 the U.S. Environmental Protection

Agency proposed adopting numeric criteria to

establish limits on the concentrations of water

pollutants in an effort to accelerate and standardize

restoration efforts. The agency produced an

economic analysis of the potential costs associated

with this change.

Review of the EPA’s Economic Analysis of Final

Water Quality Standards for Nutrients for Lakes

and Flowing Waters in Florida says that while EPA’s

approach to calculating the cost of the rule change

was correct, the agency underestimated both

the number of newly impaired waters and the

mitigation costs for the stormwater, agricultural,

septic system, and government sectors. In

addition, the report finds significant uncertainty in

how costs for municipal and industrial wastewater

sectors were evaluated.

Many discrepancies in estimates by EPA

and other stakeholders were due to different

assumptions about the rule change’s impact on

actions taken over the water quality management

cycle. The report offers a more comprehensive and

explicit approach for analyzing how a rule would

be implemented over time. It also notes that the

costs of the rule change would be small relative to

the total costs required to restore Florida’s nutrient-

impaired waters.

The National Research Council study was funded

by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency.





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THE POTENTIAL OF TREATED

WASTEWATER

Water is scarce in many parts of the world, and

demand is expected to rise as population growth

and climate change place additional stresses

on supplies. In the U.S., many municipalities

have started using another resource — treated

wastewater — to irrigate golf courses and parks or

provide industrial cooling water.

Reusing treated municipal wastewater for

many different uses, including for drinking

water, could significantly increase the nation’s

total available water resources, says Water Reuse:

Potential for Expanding the Nation’s Water Supply

Through Reuse of Municipal Wastewater. New

analyses suggest that the risk of exposure to

certain microbial and chemical contaminants from

potable wastewater reuse are about the same as,

or in some cases less than, the risk posed by some

existing water supplies.

Water reuse costs vary greatly from location

to location depending on factors such as water

quality requirements and treatment methods.

Water reuse projects are generally more

expensive than most water conservation options

but less expensive than seawater desalination.

Water authorities, however, should consider

other costs and benefits in addition to monetary

expenditures when assessing reuse projects, the

report says.

Water reuse regulations differ by state, and

many are not based on risk-assessment methods.

Adjustments to the federal regulatory framework

could help ensure a high level of public health

protection, provide a consistent minimum level of

protection across the nation, and increase public

confidence in potable and non-potable water reuse.


funded by the U.S. Environmental Protection

Agency, U.S. Bureau of Reclamation, National

Science Foundation, National Water Research

Institute, Centers for Disease Control and

Prevention, Water Research Foundation, Orange

County Water District, Orange County Sanitation

District, Los Angeles Department of Water and

Power, Irvine Ranch Water District, West Basin Water

District, Inland Empire Utilities Agency, Metropolitan

Water District of Southern California, Los Angeles

County Sanitation Districts, and Monterey Regional

Water Pollution Control Agency.





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RETHINKING GROUNDWATER CLEANUP

Over the last three decades, federal and state

agencies have spent billions of dollars to clean up

contaminated groundwater beneath hazardous

waste sites such as those at Superfund sites and

military installations. U.S. Department of Defense

sites make up approximately 3.4 percent of the

total active remediation sites, with many of these

presenting significant technical challenges and

very high costs. DOD asked the National Research

Council to examine the future of groundwater

remediation efforts.

Meeting cleanup goals at the most

challenging contaminated sites is unlikely for

many decades, says Alternatives for Managing

the Nation’s Complex Contaminated Groundwater

Sites. About 10 percent of the 126,000 DOD

sites that require remediation across the U.S.

is considered “complex,” such that restoration

to drinking water standards is unlikely to be

achieved in the next 50 to 100 years due to

technological limitations.

The estimated cost of complete cleanup at

these complex sites ranges from $110 billion to

$127 billion, but the figures for both the number

of sites and costs are likely underestimates, the

report says. The cost estimates do not account for

technical barriers to complete cleanup at complex

sites or the costs of cleanup at future sites where

groundwater may become contaminated.

If cleanup efforts at a site reach a point where

continued spending brings little or no reduction

in risk prior to attaining drinking water standards,

a re-evaluation of the site should occur. Earlier

implementation of this assessment could result

in cost savings, but funding will still be needed

to maintain long-term management at these

complex sites.


funded by the U.S. Army.

SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT OF ALGAL

BIOFUELS

As the U.S. strives to meet its energy security

needs and reduce greenhouse gas emissions,

biofuels have gained attention as possible domestic

alternatives to petroleum-based fuels. Biofuels

made from algae offer potential advantages due

to algae’s ability to grow on non-croplands in

cultivation ponds or vessels of freshwater, salt

water, or wastewater.

Sustainable Development of Algal Biofuels in the

United States says that despite these advantages,

scaling up the production of algal biofuels with

current technologies and algal strains to meet even

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place unsustainable demands on energy, water,

and nutrients.

Though estimates vary by production method,

large quantities of freshwater and nutrients

such as nitrogen and phosphorus are required

to produce algal biofuels, and the amount of

land with the correct topography, climate, and

proximity to water and nutrients required could

be expensive to purchase. Transporting resources

to cultivation facilities could cause additional

energy consumption, and there are uncertainties in

estimates of how much greenhouse gas is emitted

in the production process.

However, further research and development

could lead to innovations for sustainable

production of algal biofuels. The report proposes

a framework for research that includes assessing

sustainability throughout the supply chain,

evaluating the cumulative impact of resource use

or environmental effects, and performing cost-

benefit analyses.

This National Research Council study was

funded by the U.S. Department of Energy.

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DEFENSE, NATIONAL SECURITY, AND SPACE

Assessment of a Plan for U.S. Participation in Euclid

Assessment of Agent Monitoring Strategies for the Blue Grass and Pueblo Chemical Agent Destruction Pilot Plants

Assessment of Planetary Protection Requirements for Spacecraft Missions to Icy Solar System Bodies

Assuring the U.S. Department of Defense a Strong Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics (STEM) Workforce

Building a Resilient Workforce: Opportunities for the Department of Homeland Security — Workshop Summary

Capability Planning and Analysis to Optimize Air Force Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance Investments

Climate and Social Stress: Implications for Security Analysis (page 6)

The Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty: Technical Issues for the United States (page 11)

Continuing Kepler’s Quest: Assessing Air Force Space Command’s Astrodynamics Standards

Determining Core Capabilities in Chemical and Biological Defense Science and Technology

Disaster Resilience: A National Imperative (page 5)

Disposal Options for the Rocket Motors From Nerve Agent Rockets Stored at Blue Grass Army Depot

Earth Science and Applications From Space: A Midterm Assessment of NASA’s Implementation of the Decadal Survey

Evaluation of the Updated Site-Specific Risk Assessment for the National Bio- and Agro-Defense Facility in Manhattan, Kansas (page 8)

Export Control Challenges Associated With Securing the Homeland

Future Uses of the Department of Defense Joint Pathology Center Biorepository

Improving Metrics for the Department of Defense Cooperative Threat Reduction Program

Improving the Decision Making Abilities of Small Unit Leaders

An Interim Report on Assuring DOD a Strong Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics (STEM) Workforce

Making Sense of Ballistic Missile Defense: An Assessment of Concepts and Systems for U.S. Boost-Phase Missile Defense in Comparison to Other Alternatives (page 11)

Managing for High-Quality Science and Engineering at the NNSA National Security Laboratories (page 7)

Materials and Manufacturing Capabilities for Sustaining Defense Systems — Summary of a Workshop

Meeting Critical Laboratory Needs for Animal Agriculture: Examination of Three Options (page 8)

NASA Space Technology Roadmaps and Priorities: Restoring NASA’s Technological Edge and Paving the Way for a New Era in Space

NASA’s Strategic Direction and the Need for a National Consensus (page 10)

Recapturing NASA’s Aeronautics Flight Research Capabilities

Remediation of Buried Chemical Warfare Materiel

Reusable Booster System: Review and Assessment

Solar and Space Physics: A Science for a Technological Society

Terrorism and the Electric Power Delivery System

Testing of Body Armor Materials, Phase III

Studies and Projects Completed in 2012

























































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Aging and the Macroeconomy: Long-Term Implications of an Older Population (page 16)

Challenges in Chemistry Graduate Education — A Workshop Summary

Climate Change Education in Formal Settings, K-14 — A Workshop Summary

Collecting Compensation Data From Employers

Collecting Sexual Orientation and Gender Identity Data in Electronic Health Records — Workshop Summary

Community Colleges in the Evolving STEM Education Landscape — Summary of a Summit

Deterrence and the Death Penalty (page 17)

Discipline-Based Education Research: Understanding and Improving Learning in Undergraduate Science and Engineering

Education for Life and Work: Developing Transferable Knowledge and Skills in the 21st Century (page 15)

From Neurons to Neighborhoods: An Update — Workshop Summary

Improving Adult Literacy Instruction: Developing Reading and Writing

Improving Measurement of Productivity in Higher Education

Infusing Real World Experiences Into Engineering Education

Key National Education Indicators — Workshop Summary

Measuring What We Spend: Toward a New Consumer Expenditure Survey

Monitoring Progress Toward Successful K-12 STEM Education: A Nation Advancing? (page 15)

Options for Estimating Illegal Entries at the U.S.-Mexico Border (page 18)

Perspectives on the Future of the Sociology of Aging

Reforming Juvenile Justice: A Developmental Approach

Research Universities and the Future of America: Ten Breakthrough Actions Vital to Our Nation’s Prosperity and Security (page 14)

Research Universities and the Future of America: Ten Breakthrough Actions Vital to Our Nation’s Prosperity and Security — Summary

Small Populations, Large Effects: Improving the Measurement of the Group Quarters Population in the American Community Survey

The Subjective Well-Being Module of the American Time Use Survey: Assessment for Its Continuation

Thinking Evolutionarily: Evolution Education Across the Life Sciences — Summary of a Convocation

Using American Community Survey Data to Expand Access to the School Meals Programs

Workforce Needs in Veterinary Medicine

HEALTH AND SAFETY

Accelerating Progress in Obesity Prevention: Solving the Weight of the Nation (page 20)

Accelerating the Development of New Drugs and Diagnostics: Maximizing the Impact of the Cures Acceleration Network — Workshop Summary

Acute Exposure Guideline Levels for Selected Airborne Chemicals, Vol. 11

Acute Exposure Guideline Levels for Selected Airborne Chemicals, Vol. 12

Alliances for Obesity Prevention: Finding Common Ground — Workshop Summary

Alzheimer’s Diagnostic Guideline Validation: Exploration of Next Steps — Workshop Summary

Analysis of Cancer Risks in Populations Near Nuclear Facilities, Phase 1

Best Care at Lower Cost: The Path to Continuously Learning Health Care in America (page 20)

































































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Building Public-Private Partnerships in Food and Nutrition — Workshop Summary

The California Institute for Regenerative Medicine: Science, Governance, and the Pursuit of Cures

Child Maltreatment Research, Policy, and Practice for the Next Decade — Workshop Summary

Communications and Technology for Violence Prevention — Workshop Summary

Contagion of Violence — Workshop Summary

Crisis Standards of Care: A Systems Framework for Catastrophic Disaster Response

Digital Data Improvement Priorities for Continuous Learning in Health and Health Care — Workshop Summary

Envisioning a Transformed Clinical Trials Enterprise in the United States: Establishing an Agenda for 2020 — Workshop Summary

Epilepsy Across the Spectrum: Promoting Health and Understanding

Ethical and Scientific Issues in Studying the Safety of Approved Drugs

Evaluation of the Lovell Federal Health Care Center Merger: Findings, Conclusions, and Recommendations

Exploring Health and Environmental Costs of Food — Workshop Summary

Facilitating State Health Exchange Communication Through the Use of Health Literate Practices — Workshop Summary

Fitness Measures and Health Outcomes in Youth

For the Public’s Health: Investing in a Healthier Future

Genome-Based Diagnostics: Clarifying Pathways to Clinical Use — Workshop Summary

Genome-Based Therapeutics: Targeted Drug Discovery and Development — Workshop Summary

Geographic Adjustment in Medicare Payment, Phase II: Implications for Access, Quality, and Efficiency (page 23)

How Can Health Care Organizations Become More Health Literate? — Workshop Summary

How Far Have We Come in Reducing Health Disparities? Progress Since 2000 — Workshop Summary

The Human Microbiome, Diet, and Health — Workshop Summary

Improving Food Safety Through a One Health Approach — Workshop Summary

Informatics Needs and Challenges in Cancer Research — Workshop Summary

An Integrated Framework for Assessing the Value of Community-Based Prevention

International Animal Research Regulations: Impact on Neuroscience Research — Workshop Summary

Living Well With Chronic Illness: A Call for Public Health Action

Measuring Progress in Obesity Prevention — Workshop Report

Medical Care Economic Risk: Measuring Financial Vulnerability From Spending on Medical Care

The Mental Health and Substance Use Workforce for Older Adults: In Whose Hands? (page 22)

Monitoring HIV Care in the United States: A Strategy for Generating National Estimates of HIV Care and Coverage

Monitoring HIV Care in the United States: Indicators and Data Systems

Nutrition and Healthy Aging in the Community — Workshop Summary

Post-Incident Recovery Considerations of the Health Care Service Delivery Infrastructure — Workshop Summary

Potential Health Risks to DOD Firing-Range Personnel From Recurrent Lead Exposure

Primary Care and Public Health: Exploring Integration to Improve Population Health

Public Engagement on Facilitating Access to Antiviral Medications and Information in an Influenza Pandemic — Workshop Series Summary






































































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Ranking Vaccines: A Prioritization Framework, Phase I: Demonstration of Concept and a Software Blueprint

Reducing Tobacco-Related Cancer Incidence and Mortality — Workshop Summary

Research Methods to Assess Dietary Intake and Program Participation in Child Day Care: Application to the Child and Adult Care Food Program — Workshop Summary

The Role of Obesity in Cancer Survival and Recurrence — Workshop Summary

The Role of Telehealth in an Evolving Health Care Environment — Workshop Summary

Safe and Effective Medicines for Children: Pediatric Studies Conducted Under the Best Pharmaceuticals for Children Act and the Pediatric Research Equity Act

Substance Use Disorders in the U.S. Armed Forces (page 22)

Technical Evaluation of the NASA Model for Cancer Risk to Astronauts Due to Space Radiation

Tracking Radiation Exposure From Medical Diagnostic Procedures — Workshop Report

Treatment for Posttraumatic Stress Disorder in Military and Veteran Populations: Initial Assessment (page 21)

Twenty-first Interim Report of the Committee on Acute Exposure Guideline Levels, Part A

Twenty-first Interim Report of the Committee on Acute Exposure Guideline Levels, Part B

INDUSTRY, COMMERCE, AND TECHNOLOGY

Best Practices in Assessment of Research and Development Organizations

Best Practices in Assessment of Research and Development Organizations — Summary of a Workshop

Big Data — A Workshop Report

Building Hawaii’s Innovation Economy — Summary of a Symposium

Building the Arkansas Innovation Economy — Summary of a Symposium

Clustering for 21st Century Prosperity — Summary of a Symposium

Computing Research for Sustainability

Continuing Innovation in Information Technology

Effective Tracking of Building Energy Use: Improving the Commercial Buildings and Residential Energy Consumption Surveys

From Science to Business: Preparing Female Scientists and Engineers for Successful Transitions Into Entrepreneurship — Summary of a Workshop

Interim Report — Status of the Study “An Assessment of the Prospects for Inertial Fusion Energy”

Interim Report for the Triennial Review of the National Nanotechnology Initiative, Phase II

Making Things: 21st Century Manufacturing and Design — Summary of a Forum

Making Value: Integrating Manufacturing, Design, and Innovation to Thrive in the Changing Global Economy

Nutrient Requirements of Swine, 11th Revised Edition

Optics and Photonics: Essential Technologies for Our Nation

Rising Above the Gathering Storm: Developing Regional Innovation Environments — A Workshop Summary

Summary of a Workshop on the Future of Antennas

Sustainability Considerations for Procurement Tools and Capabilities — Summary of a Workshop

INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS

Aging in Asia: Findings From New and Emerging Data Initiatives

Barriers to Integrating Crisis Standards of Care Principles Into International Disaster Response Plans — Workshop Summary
































































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Blueprint for the Future: Framing the Issues of Women in Science in a Global Context — Summary of a Workshop

The Case for International Sharing of Scientific Data: A Focus on Developing Countries — Proceedings of a Symposium

The Continuing Epidemiological Transition in Sub-Saharan Africa — A Workshop Summary

Country-Level Decision Making for Control of Chronic Diseases — Workshop Summary

Developing and Strengthening the Global Supply Chain for Second-Line Drugs for Multidrug-Resistant Tuberculosis — Workshop Summary

Ensuring Safe Foods and Medical Products Through Stronger Regulatory Systems Abroad

Facing the Reality of Drug-Resistant Tuberculosis in India: Challenges and Potential Solutions — Summary of a Joint Workshop by the Institute of Medicine, the Indian National Science Academy, and the Indian Council of Medical Research

For Attribution: Developing Data Attribution and Citation Practices and Standards — Summary of an International Workshop

Global Navigation Satellite Systems — Report of a Joint Workshop of the National Academy of Engineering and the Chinese Academy of Engineering

Human Performance Modification: Review of Worldwide Research With a View to the Future

International Science in the National Interest at the U.S. Geological Survey

Lessons and Legacies of the International Polar Year 2007-2008

Meeting Global Challenges: U.S.-German Innovation Policy — Summary of a Symposium

The New Global Ecosystem in Advanced Computing: Implications for U.S. Competitiveness and National Security

Progress, Challenges, and Opportunities for Converting U.S. and Russian Research Reactors — A Workshop Report

Rising to the Challenge: U.S. Innovation Policy for the Global Economy

A Sustainability Challenge: Food Security for All — Report of Two Workshops

U.S. and International Perspectives on Global Science Policy and Science Diplomacy — Report of a Workshop


Alternatives for Managing the Nation’s Complex Contaminated Groundwater Sites (page 29)

Corps of Engineers Water Resources Infrastructure: Deterioration, Investment, or Divestment?

Dam and Levee Safety and Community Resilience: A Vision for Future Practice

Ecosystem Services: Charting a Path to Sustainability

The Effects of Solar Variability on Earth’s Climate — A Workshop Report

Himalayan Glaciers: Climate Change, Water Resources, and Water Security

Induced Seismicity Potential in Energy Technologies

A National Strategy for Advancing Climate Modeling

National Summit on Strategies to Manage Herbicide-Resistant Weeds — Proceedings of a Symposium

Preparing for the Third Decade (Cycle 3) of the National Water-Quality Assessment (NAWQA) Program

Progress Toward Restoring the Everglades: The Fourth Biennial Review, 2012

Proliferation Risk in Nuclear Fuel Cycles — Workshop Summary

Review of the EPA’s Economic Analysis of Final Water Quality Standards for Nutrients for Lakes and Flowing Waters in Florida (page 27)

A Review of the U.S. Global Change Research Program’s Strategic Plan

The Role of the Chemical Sciences in Finding Alternatives to Critical Resources — A Workshop Summary





































































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Science for Environmental Protection: The Road Ahead

Scientific Review of the Draft Environmental Impact Statement: Drakes Bay Oyster Company Special Use Permit

Sea-Level Rise for the Coasts of California, Oregon, and Washington: Past, Present, and Future (page 26)

Seasonal-to-Decadal Predictions of Arctic Sea Ice: Challenges and Strategies

Sustainable Development of Algal Biofuels in the United States (page 29)

Sustainable Water and Environmental Management in the California Bay-Delta (page 26)

Urban Meteorology: Forecasting, Monitoring, and Meeting Users’ Needs

The Use and Storage of Methyl Isocyanate (MIC) at Bayer CropScience

Water Reuse: Potential for Expanding the Nation’s Water Supply Through Reuse of Municipal Wastewater (page 28)

Weather Services for the Nation: Becoming Second to None (page 5)

THE SCIENTIFIC ENTERPRISE

Advancing Strategic Science: A Spatial Data Infrastructure Roadmap for the U.S. Geological Survey

Assessing the Reliability of Complex Models: Mathematical and Statistical Foundations of Verification, Validation, and Uncertainty Quantification

Assuring a Future U.S.-Based Nuclear and Radiochemistry Expertise

Challenges and Opportunities in the Hydrologic Sciences

Challenges in Characterizing Small Particles: Exploring Particles From the Nano- to Microscales — A Workshop Summary

Evolution of Translational Omics: Lessons Learned and the Path Forward

Exposure Science in the 21st Century: A Vision and a Strategy

Fueling Innovation and Discovery: The Mathematical Sciences in the 21st Century

The Future of Scientific Knowledge Discovery in Open Networked Environments — Summary of a Workshop

Improving Measures of Science, Technology, and Innovation — Interim Report

Intelligent Human-Machine Collaboration — Summary of a Workshop

Nuclear Physics: Exploring the Heart of Matter

Research Frontiers in Bioinspired Energy: Molecular-Level Learning From Natural Systems — A Workshop

A Research Strategy for Environmental, Health, and Safety Aspects of Engineered Nanomaterials

A Review of the Manufacturing-Related Programs at the National Institute of Standards and Technology, Fiscal Year 2012

Sex-Specific Reporting of Scientific Research — A Workshop Summary

The Social Biology of Microbial Communities — Workshop Summary

Transforming Glycoscience: A Roadmap for the Future

Using Data Sharing to Improve Coordination in Peacebuilding — Report of a Workshop by the National Academy of Engineering and the United States Institute of Peace Roundtable on Technology, Science, and Peacebuilding

Using Science as Evidence in Public Policy

TRANSPORTATION

AASHTO [American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials] T 209: Effect of Agitation Equipment Type on Theoretical Maximum Specific Gravity Values

Achieving Airport-Compatible Land Uses and Minimizing Hazardous Obstructions in Navigable Airspace
































































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Addressing Uncertainty About Future Airport Activity Levels in Airport Decision Making

Airport Apron Management and Control Programs

Airport Climate Adaptation and Resilience

Airport Ground Support Equipment (GSE): Emission Reduction Strategies, Inventory, and Tutorial (with supplemental material on CD-ROM)

Airport Passenger Conveyance Systems Planning Guidebook (with supplemental material on CD-ROM)

Airport-to-Airport Mutual Aid Programs

Alternative Fuels as a Means to Reduce PM2.5 Emissions at Airports

Analysis of Existing Data: Prospective Views on Methodological Paradigms

Analysis of Managed Lanes on Freeway Facilities

Appendices to NCHRP [National Cooperative Highway Research Program] Report 693

Application of Enterprise Risk Management at Airports (with supplemental material on CD-ROM)

Application of LADAR [Light Detection and Ranging] in the Analysis of Aggregate Characteristics

Assessing and Comparing Environmental Performance of Major Transit Investments

Assessing Highway Tolling and Pricing Options and Impacts: Vol. 1, Decision-Making Framework; and Vol. 2, Travel Demand Forecasting Tools

Assessing the Long-Term Performance of Mechanically Stabilized Earth Walls

Asset and Infrastructure Management for Airports — Primer and Guidebook

Attracting, Recruiting, and Retaining Skilled Staff for Transportation System Operations and Management

Audience Measurement for Transit Advertising

Automated Enforcement for Speeding and Red Light Running

Building the U.S. Battery Industry for Electric Drive Vehicles — Summary of a Symposium

Calibration of Rutting Models for Structural and Mix Design

Commercial Truck and Bus Safety Synthesis Program: A Status Report, 2012

Communicating the Value of Preservation

A Compendium of Best Practices and Lessons Learned for Improving Local Community Recovery From Disastrous Hazardous Materials Transportation Incidents

Competition Requirements of the Design/Build, Construction Manager at Risk, and Public-Private Partnership Contracts: Seven Case Studies

Compilation of State Airport Authorizing Legislation

Considering and Evaluating Airport Privatization (with supplemental material on CD-ROM)

Construction 2012

Cost-Effective and Sustainable Road Slope Stabilization and Erosion Control

Critical Infrastructure Protection and Resilience: Emergency Evacuation 2011

Current Hazardous Materials Transportation Research and Future Needs

Data Needs for Assessing Rural Transit Needs, Benefits, and Levels of Service

Dedicated Revenue Mechanisms for Freight Transportation Investment

Design and Management of Historic Roads

Design Guidance for Freeway Mainline Ramp Terminals

Design Guidance for High-Speed to Low-Speed Transition Zones for Rural Highways

Developing, Enhancing, and Sustaining Tribal Transit Services: A Guidebook

Developing, Enhancing, and Sustaining Tribal Transit Services: Final Research Report
























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Development of Analysis Methods Using Recent Data

Distracted Driving Countermeasures for Commercial Vehicles

Driver Selection Tests and Measurement

An Ecological Approach to Integrating Conservation and Highway Planning, Vol. 2

Effective Experiment Design and Data Analysis in Transportation Research

Elevator and Escalator Maintenance and Safety Practices

Elimination or Reduction of Baggage Recheck for Arriving International Passengers

Energy and Global Climate Change 2011

Energy and Global Climate Change 2012

Engineering Economic Analysis Practices for Highway Investment

Environment 2012

Estimating Life Expectancies of Highway Assets: Vol. 1, Guidebook; and Vol. 2, Final Report

Estimating the Effects of Pavement Condition on Vehicle Operating Costs

Evaluating Airfield Capacity

Evaluating the Effectiveness of Offshore Safety and Environmental Management Systems

Evaluation of Bridge Scour Research

Evaluation of the Use of Electronic Shipping Papers for Hazardous Materials Shipments

Expedited Planning and Environmental Review of Highway Projects

Expedited Procurement Procedures for Emergency Construction Services

Expediting Aircraft Recovery at Airports

Exploring Airport Employee Commute and Parking Strategies

Extent of Highway Capacity Manual Use in Planning

Fatigue Evaluation of Steel Bridges

Fatigue Loading and Design Methodology for High-Mast Lighting Towers

Financing Surface Transportation in the United States: Forging a Sustainable Future — Now! Summary of the Fourth International Conference

Freight Systems 2012

Freight Systems 2012: Modeling and Logistics

Geology and Properties of Earth Materials 2012

Geomaterials 2012

Geotechnical Information Practices in Design-Build Projects

Going the Distance Together: A Citizen’s Guide to Context Sensitive Solutions for Better Transportation

Graduate Research Award Program on Public Sector Aviation Issues

Guidance for Quantifying the Contribution of Airport Emissions to Local Air Quality (with supplemental material on CD-ROM)

Guidance for the Selection, Use, and Maintenance of Cable Barrier Systems

A Guide for Implementing Bus on Shoulder (BOS) Systems

Guide for Managing NEPA [National Environmental Policy Act]: Related and Other Risks in Project Delivery

Guidebook for Airport Irregular Operations (IROPS) Contingency Planning

Guidebook for Assessing Evolving International Container Chassis Supply Models

Guidebook for Developing General Aviation Airport Business Plans (with supplemental material on CD-ROM)

Guidebook for Evaluating Fuel Purchasing Strategies for Public Transit Agencies

Guidebook for Evaluating Terminal Renewal Versus Replacement Options















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Guidebook for Implementing Intelligent Transportation Systems Elements to Improve Airport Traveler Access Information (with supplemental material on CD-ROM)

Guidebook for Incorporating Sustainability Into Traditional Airport Projects (with supplemental material on CD-ROM)

Guidebook for Measuring Performance of Automated People Mover Systems at Airports

A Guidebook for Nighttime Construction: Impacts on Safety, Quality, and Productivity

Guidebook for Selecting Methods to Monitor Airport and Aircraft Deicing Materials, plus Fact Sheets: On-Site Monitoring Methods

Guidebook for Understanding Urban Goods Movement (with supplemental material on CD-ROM)

Guidelines for Analysis Methods and Construction Engineering of Curved and Skewed Steel Girder Bridges

Guidelines for Evaluating and Selecting Modifications to Existing Roadway Drainage Infrastructure to Improve Water Quality in Ultra-Urban Areas (with supplemental on CD-ROM)

Guidelines for Ferry Transportation Services

Guidelines for Integrating Alternative Jet Fuel Into the Airport Setting

Guidelines for Project Selection and Materials Sampling, Conditioning, and Testing in WMA [Warm Mix Asphalt] Research Studies

Guidelines for Providing Access to Public Transportation Stations (with supplemental material on CD-ROM)

Guidelines for Timing Yellow and All-Red Intervals at Signalized Intersections

Handbook for Evaluating Emissions and Costs of APUs [Auxiliary Power Units] and Alternative Systems

Handbook on Applying Environmental Benchmarking in Freight Transportation

High-Performance/High-Strength Lightweight Concrete for Bridge Girders and Decks

Highway and Traffic Safety: Vehicles, Behavior, and Roundabouts

Highway Capacity and Quality of Service 2011

Highway Capacity and Quality of Service 2012

Highway Design 2011

Highway Safety 2012: Traffic Law Enforcement, Alcohol, Occupant Protection, Motorcycles, and Trucks

Highway Safety Manual Training Materials (with supplemental material on CD-ROM)

Human Factors Guidelines for Road Systems, Second Edition

Hydraulic Loss Coefficients for Culverts

Identification of Utility Conflicts and Solutions

Implementation and Outcomes of Fare-Free Transit Systems

Improving ADA [Americans With Disabilities Act] Paratransit Demand Estimation: Regional Modeling (with supporting material on CD-ROM)

Improving Bus Transit Safety Through Rewards and Discipline

An Index and Digest of Decisions: Compilation of Airport Law Resources (CD-ROM)

Information Technology Systems at Airports: A Primer

Institutional Architectures to Improve Systems Operations and Management

Integration of Analysis Methods and Development of Analysis Plan

Intelligent Transportation Systems and Vehicle-Highway Automation 2011

Interactions Between Transportation Capacity, Economic Systems, and Land Use

Issues With Use of Airfield LED [Light Emitting Diode] Light Fixtures

Legal Aspects of Airport Programs: An Update

Legal Issues Involving Surety for Public Transportation Projects




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Lessons Learned From Airport Safety Management Systems Pilot Studies

Linking Community Visioning and Highway Capacity Planning

Local and State Partnerships With Taxicab Companies

Local Policies and Practices That Support Safe Pedestrian Environments

Long-Term Performance of Polymer Concrete for Bridge Decks

Maintenance Services and Surface Weather 2011

Maintenance Services and Surface Weather 2012

Managing Aerial Firefighting Activities on Airports

Marine Highway Transport of Toxic Inhalation Hazard Materials

Marine Transportation, Marine Environment, and Port Terminal Operations 2012

Measurement of Gaseous HAP [Hazardous Air Pollutant] Emissions From Idling Aircraft as a Function of Engine and Ambient Conditions

Methodologies to Estimate the Economic Impacts of Disruptions to the Goods Movement System

Methodology for Determining the Economic Development Impacts of Transit Projects

A Model for Identifying and Evaluating the Historic Significance of Post-World War II Housing

Multimodal Freight Transportation Within the Great Lakes-Saint Lawrence Basin

NCHRP at 50 Years

Network Modeling 2011

Network Modeling 2012, Vol. 1

Network Modeling 2012, Vol. 2

Off-Board Fare Payment Using Proof-of-Payment Verification

Operation of Light Rail Transit Through Ungated Crossings at Speeds Over 35 MPH

Operator Drug- and Alcohol-Testing Across Modes

Optimization of Tack Coat for HMA [Hot Mix Asphalt] Placement

Pavement Management 2011, Vol. 1

Pedestrians 2011

Performance-Based Highway Maintenance and Operations Management

Performance-Based Track Geometry, Phase 1

Planning 2011, Vol. 2

Practical Approaches for Involving Traditionally Underserved Populations in Transportation Decisionmaking

Practices and Procedures for Site-Specific Evaluations of Earthquake Ground Motions

Practices for Wayside Rail Transit Worker Protection

Practices to Manage Traffic Sign Retroreflectivity

Preserving and Protecting Freight Infrastructure and Routes (with supplemental material on CD-ROM)

Procurement of Airport Development and Planning Contracts

A Proposed Technology Evaluation Program for Warm Mix Asphalt

Public-Sector Aviation: Graduate Research Award Papers, 2010-2011

Railways 2011, Including 2011 Thomas B. Deen Distinguished Lecture

The Ramifications of Post-Kelo Legislation on State Transportation Projects

Recent Roadway Geometric Design Research for Improved Safety and Operations

Ridesharing as a Complement to Transit

Role of Human Factors in Preventing Cargo Tank Truck Rollovers

Rural Public Transportation Strategies for Responding to the Livable and Sustainable Communities Initiative
























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Safety Data, Analysis, and Evaluation 2011, Vol. 2

Safety Management in Small Motor Carriers

The Safety Promise and Challenge of Automotive Electronics: Insights From Unintended Acceleration (page 9)

Scour at Bridge Foundations on Rock

Seismic Design of Geosynthetic-Reinforced Soil Bridge Abutments With Modular Block Facing

Selected State DOT [Department of Transportation] Cost-Reduction Initiatives for the Administration of State Public Transportation Programs

Significant Findings From Full-Scale Accelerate Pavement Testing

State and Federal Regulations That May Affect Initiatives to Reduce Airports’ GHG [Greenhouse Gas] Emissions

State DOT [Department of Transportation] Financial Auditing Requirements for Public Transportation Assistance Programs

State of Good Repair: Prioritizing the Rehabilitation and Replacement of Existing Capital Assets and Evaluating the Implications for Transit

Structural Design of Culvert Joints

Structures 2011

Subsurface Utility Engineering Information Management for Airports

Summary of Research Findings: Assessing and Comparing Environmental Performance of Major Transit Investments

The Superpave Mix Design System: Anatomy of a Research Program

Survey of State Funding for Public Transportation: Ways to Improve It

Sustainable Pavement Maintenance Practices

Sustainable Practices, Performance Measures, and Management

A Toolkit for Reporting Rural and Specialized Transit Data: Making Transit Count

Tort Liability Defense Practices for Design Flexibility

Track Design Handbook for Light Rail Transit, Second Edition

Traffic Control Devices, Visibility, and Highway-Rail Grade Crossings 2012

Traffic Flow Theory and Characteristics 2011

Traffic Signal Systems 2011

Training of Traffic Incident Responders

Transforming Public Transportation Institutional and Business Models

Transit 2011, Vol. 1

Transit 2012, Vol. 1, Including 2012 Thomas B. Deen Distinguished Lecture

Transit 2012, Vol. 2

Transit Agency Intergovernmental Agreements: Common Issues and Solutions (with supplemental material on CD-ROM)

Transit Labor 13(c) Employee Protection Digest on CD-ROM

Travel Demand Forecasting: Parameters and Techniques

Travel Forecasting 2011, Vol. 1

Travel Forecasting 2011, Vol. 2

Travel Survey Methods, Freight Data Systems, and Asset Management 2012

Traveler Response to Transportation System Changes, Chapter 16: Pedestrian and Bicycle Facilities

Urban and Traffic Data Systems

Use of the U.S. Census Bureau’s Public Use Microdata Sample (PUMS) by State Departments of Transportation and Metropolitan Planning Organizations

Use of Towbarless Tractors at Airports — Best Practices

Uses of Social Media in Public Transportation

Waterproofing Membranes for Concrete Bridge Decks

Winter Design-Storm Factor Determination for Airports


































































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Public Law

113-6 Consolidated and Further Continuing Appropriations Act, 2013

Conduct a review of proposed methodologies for the National Children’s Study (NCS) Main Study, including whether such methodologies are likely to produce scientifically sound results that can be generalized to the United States population and appropriate sub-populations

112-239 National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2013

Review the specialized degree-granting graduate programs of the Department of Defense in science, tech-nology, engineering, mathematics, and management

Assess and provide an analysis and recommendations on the state of the Department of Veterans Affairs’ mental health services, including the department’s development and implementation of measures to assess its mental health care services and its staffing guidelines

Conduct a study of peer review and design competition related to nuclear weapons

Conduct a study of the state of molybdenum-99 production and utilization

112-141 Moving Ahead for Progress in the 21st Century Act (MAP-21)

Review a report which assesses the status of vehicle-to-vehicle and vehicle-to-infrastructure dedicated short-range communications technology and applications, analyzes the known and potential gaps, and defines a recommended implementation path

Conduct a study exploring methods for understanding graduated risk behind levees and the associated land development, insurance, and risk communication dimensions

In consultation with the Comptroller General of the United States, conduct an economic analysis of the costs and benefits to the federal government of a flood insurance program with full risk-based premiums, combined with means-tested federal assistance to aid individuals who cannot afford coverage, through an insurance voucher program

Upon issuance of the rule establishing the Consumer Option for an Alternative System to Allocate Losses (COASTAL) Formula and each time it is modified, evaluate the expected financial impact on the national

Current Congressionally Authorized Activities*

*While all projects listed have been designated in legislation, a few lack funding and final contracts.

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flood insurance program of the use of the formula, the validity of the scientific assumptions upon which it is based, and whether the formula can achieve a degree of accuracy of not less than 90 percent in allocating flood losses for indeterminate losses

112-95 FAA Reauthorization and Reform Act of 2011

Review the enterprise architecture for the NextGen

Study the assumptions and methods used by the Federal Aviation Administration to estimate staffing needs for FAA systems specialists to ensure proper maintenance and certification of the national airspace system

Study the standards used by the FAA to estimate staffing needs for FAA air traffic controllers to ensure the safe operation of the national airspace system in the most cost-effective manner

Review the research plan developed by the FAA administrator on the methods and procedures to improve both confidence in and the timeliness of certification of new technologies for their introduction into the national airspace system

Conduct a study, under the Airport Cooperative Research Program, on airport sustainability practices


Within four years of the enactment of the SBIR/STTR Reauthorization Act of 2011, and every four years there-after, conduct a study of how the STTR program has stimulated technological innovation and technology transfer, estimate the number of jobs created by the SBIR and STTR programs, and make recommendations with respect to these issues

112-74 Consolidated Appropriations Act, 2012

Conduct a study to identify the market barriers slowing the purchase of electric vehicles and hindering the deployment of supporting infrastructure

Study the lessons learned from the Fukushima nuclear disaster

Conduct up to three reviews of the Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS) assessments that the Environ-mental Protection Agency seeks to make final, including a study of the cancer and noncancer hazards from oral exposure to inorganic arsenic

Form a work group to review, evaluate, and identify issues related to the Cures Acceleration Network (CAN) authority and provide a report for the CAN Board to help it identify ways to accelerate and expand the num-ber of cures

Evaluate the Clinical and Translational Science Awards program and recommend whether changes to the cur-rent mission are needed

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Conduct a scientific peer review of the 12th Report on Carcinogens determinations related to formaldehyde and styrene

111-358 America COMPETES Reauthorization Act of 2010

Conduct a study on the scientific work force in the areas of oceanic and atmospheric research and development

Conduct a study of all federal agencies that administer an Experimental Program to Stimulate Competitive Research (EPSCoR) or a program similar to EPSCoR regarding its effectiveness

Initiate a study to evaluate, develop, or improve impact-on-society metrics

Within three years, evaluate the regional innovation program established by this Act

111-314 National and Commercial Space Programs

Periodically over the next decade, conduct independent assessments, also known as decadal surveys, taking stock of the status and opportunities for earth and space science discipline fields and aeronautics research and recommending priorities for research and programmatic areas

At five-year intervals, review and assess the performance of each division in the science directorate of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration

111-267 National Aeronautics and Space Administration Authorization Act of 2010

Beginning in FY2012, conduct a review of the goals, core capabilities, and direction of human space flight, using the goals set forth in the National Aeronautics and Space Act of 1958, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Authorization Act of 2005, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Autho-rization Act of 2008, the goals set forth in this Act, and those set forth in any existing statement of space policy issued by the president

111-212 Supplemental Appropriations Act, 2010

Conduct a study of the long-term ecosystem service impacts of the Deepwater Horizon oil discharge

111-163 Caregivers and Veterans Omnibus Health Services Act of 2010

Conduct an expanded study on the health impact of Project Shipboard Hazard and Defense (Project SHAD)

111-148 Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act

Review research on the selection of a set of key national indicators, determine how to implement and estab-lish a key national indicator system, and report annually to the Commission on Key National Indicators any findings and recommendations

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Conduct a study of the feasibility of commercially provided earth science data

111-85 Energy and Water Development and Related Agencies Appropriations Act, 2010

Conduct a study to address the national security and extended deterrence value of the B61 bomb for both strategic and tactical purposes in light of nuclear terrorism risks and military threats


Study the treatment of posttraumatic stress disorder

Conduct a review of Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Los Alamos National Laboratory, and Sandia National Laboratories

111-8 Omnibus Appropriations Act, 2009

Conduct an inventory of the energy development potential on all lands currently managed by the Depart-ment of Energy

Study the position of the United States in flexible electronics, its applications, and the steps that must be undertaken for a national initiative

Conduct a third-party review of the federal nanotechnology research program


Conduct a study to determine the most appropriate governance structure for U.S. earth observations programs

Study the impacts of space weather on the current and future United States aviation industry, and in particu-lar examine the risks for Over-The-Pole (OTP) and Ultra-Long-Range (ULR) operations

On a periodic basis, perform independent assessments — also known as decadal surveys — to take stock of the status and opportunities for the fields of earth and space science and aeronautics and to recommend priorities for research and programmatic areas over the next decade

110-389 Veterans’ Benefits Improvement Act of 2008

Before March 31, 2012, report to Congress assessing the feasibility and advisability of conducting additional research after Sept. 30, 2012, on the assets transferred to the Institute of Medicine’s Medical Follow-Up Agency from the Air Force Health Study (see Public Law 109-364 for background on this request)

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110-343 Emergency Economic Stabilization Act of 2008

Review the Internal Revenue Code of 1986 to identify the types of and specific tax provisions that have the largest effects on carbon and other greenhouse gas emissions and to estimate the magnitude of those effects

110-315 Higher Education Opportunity Act

Evaluate the quality of distance education programs, as compared to campus-based education programs, at institutions of higher education

Identify any race, ethnicity, or gender bias in the content and construction of standardized tests that are used for admission to institutions of higher education

Study the quality of teacher education programs to determine if teachers are adequately prepared to meet the needs of students with reading and language processing disabilities, including dyslexia

Identify constraints encountered by schools of nursing in admitting and graduating the number of registered nurses necessary to ensure patient safety and meet the need for quality assurance in the provision of health care; and develop recommendations to alleviate these constraints


Establish an independent project review of NASA’s major programs

Support the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis’ Global Energy Assessment

Recommend innovative approaches to educate and train scientists and users of Earth observations and ap-plications and to assist in training students

110-140 Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007

Evaluate vehicle fuel economy standards, updating the initial report every five years through 2025

Assess the impact of the requirements described in Section 211(o) of the Clean Air Act on each industry relat-ing to the production of feed grains, livestock, food, forest products, and energy

Five years after enactment of this Act, assess the Department of Energy’s performance in carrying out Section 641, titled the “United States Energy Storage Competitiveness Act of 2007”

Review and provide oversight for the Carbon Capture and Sequestration Research, Development, and Dem-onstration Programs under Section 963 of the Energy Policy Act of 2005 and as amended by Sections 702 and 703 of this Act

Conduct a study that defines an interdisciplinary program on the undergraduate and graduate levels in geology, engineering, hydrology, environmental science, and related disciplines that will support the nation’s capability to capture and sequester carbon dioxide from anthropogenic sources, and develop guidelines for proposals from colleges and universities with substantial capabilities in the required disciplines

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110-114 Water Resources Development Act of 2007

Conduct a peer review for those project studies subject to a review as described in subsection (a), Section 2034, of this Act, which may include the economic and environmental assumptions and projections, project evaluation data, economic, environmental, and engineering analyses, formulation of alternative plans, meth-ods for integrating risk and uncertainty, models used in evaluation of economic or environmental impacts of proposed projects, and any biological opinions of the project study

110-69 America Creating Opportunities to Meaningfully Promote Excellence in Technology, Education, and Science (America COMPETES) Act

Study how the federal government should support, through research, education, and training, the emerging management and learning discipline known as “service science”

Not later than five years and 10 years after enactment of this Act, assess the performance of the science, engineering, and mathematics education programs of the Department of Energy

Four years into its operation, conduct an evaluation of how well the Advanced Research Projects Agency — Energy (ARPA-E) is achieving its goals and mission

Identify promising practices for improving teaching and student achievement in science, technology, engineering, and mathematics in kindergarten through grade 12 and examine and synthesize the scientific evidence pertaining to the improvement of teaching and learning in these fields

Conduct a study of the mechanisms and supports needed for an institution of higher education or nonprofit organization to develop and maintain a program to provide free access to online educational content as part of a degree program, especially in science, technology, engineering, mathematics, or foreign languages, without using federal funds, including funds provided under title IV of the Higher Education Act of 1965 (20 U.S.C. 1070 et seq.)

109-364 John Warner National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2007

Receive custodianship of the Air Force Health Study assets, maintain the data and specimens, and make them available for additional studies

109-347 Security and Accountability for Every (SAFE) Port Act of 2006

Conduct a study and prepare a report on disaster area health and environmental protection and monitoring


At five-year intervals, review and assess the performance of each division in the science directorate of NASA

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109-59 Safe, Accountable, Flexible, Efficient Transportation Equity Act: A Legacy for Users (SAFETEA-LU)

Recommend a research agenda for a national cooperative freight transportation research program and to support and carry out administrative and management activities related to its governance

Carry out the nine research projects called for in the National Academies’ Transportation Research Board 2005 Special Report 283 titled “Cooperative Research for Hazardous Materials Transportation: Defining the Need, Converging on Solutions”

109-58 Energy Policy Act of 2005

Every four years, review the Department of Energy’s R&D program on technologies relating to the produc-tion, purification, distribution, storage, and use of hydrogen energy, fuel cells, and related infrastructure outlined in Section 805 of this Act

Every four years, review the demonstration projects outlined in Section 808 and consistent with “Title VIII — Hydrogen” of this Act, and the Department of Energy’s determination of the maturity, cost-effectiveness, and environmental impacts of technologies supporting each project

Conduct periodic reviews of the Next-Generation Lighting Initiative

Review the research plan for the systems biology program

Conduct periodic reviews and assessments of the Department of Energy’s research, development, demon-stration, and commercial application programs in energy efficiency, renewable energy, nuclear energy, and fossil energy; the measurable cost and performance goals for the programs as established under Section 902 of this Act; and the progress on meeting these goals

Determine the effect that electrical contaminants (such as tin whiskers) may have on the reliability of energy production systems, including nuclear energy

Study the potential of developing wind, solar, and ocean energy resources on federal land and the outer con-tinental shelf; assess any federal law relating to their development; and recommend statutory and regulatory mechanisms for developing them

108-176 Vision 100 — Century of Aviation Reauthorization Act

Provide staff support to the Airport Cooperative Research Program Governing Board and carry out projects proposed by the board that the secretary of transportation considers appropriate

108-153 21st Century Nanotechnology Research and Development Act

Conduct a triennial evaluation of the National Nanotechnology Program

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106-541 Water Resources Development Act of 2000

Biennial review of the progress of the Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan

105-368 Veterans Programs Enhancement Act of 1998

Review and evaluate the available scientific evidence regarding associations between illness and service in the Persian Gulf War

Develop a curriculum for the care and treatment of Persian Gulf War veterans who have ill-defined or undiag-nosed illnesses and periodically review and provide recommendations regarding research plans and research strategies

105-277 Omnibus Consolidated and Emergency Supplemental Appropriations for Fiscal Year 1999

Study on the available scientific evidence regarding associations between illnesses and exposure to toxic agents, environmental or wartime hazards, or preventive medicines or vaccines associated with Gulf War service

102-4 Agent Orange Act of 1991

Periodic review, summary, and assessment of the scientific evidence, and recommendation for further sci-entific studies concerning the association between exposure to herbicide and each disease suspected to be associated with such exposure (reports to be submitted at least biennially for a period of up to 10 years)

93-348 National Research Service Award Act of 1974

Conduct a continuing study to establish the nation’s overall need for biomedical and behavioral research personnel and assess current training programs

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U.S. Government Agencies(Grants and Contracts)

Department of Agriculture $ 1,502,212Department of Commerce 11,958,299Department of Defense Defense Threat Reduction Agency 1,914,515 Department of Defense 7,486,016 Department of the Air Force 9,772,015 Department of the Army 10,474,067 Department of the Navy 12,127,696Department of Education 933,022Department of Energy 10,025,026Department of Health and Human Services 25,486,450Department of Homeland Security 2,892,174Department of the Interior 2,927,278Department of Justice 1,778,827Department of Labor 977,789Department of State 6,156,233Department of Transportation 104,412,015Department of the Treasury 1,293,176Department of Veterans Affairs 4,262,827Environmental Protection Agency 4,786,991Executive Office of the President 1,116,072Government Accountability Office 71,453General Services Administration 314,366Institute of Museum and Library Services 207,968Marine Mammal Commission 82,857National Aeronautics and Space Administration 5,589,162National Geospatial Intelligence Agency 227,784National Science Foundation 16,114,505National Security Agency 103,018National Transportation Safety Board 15,033Nuclear Regulatory Commission 919,503Office of the Director of National Intelligence 2,533Social Security Administration 291,719U.S. Agency for International Development 4,317,478U.S. Arctic Research Commission 32,734U.S. Chemical Safety Board 158,351

TOTAL U.S. GOVERNMENT AGENCIES $ 250,731,164

Private and Nonfederal Sources

Grants and Contracts $ 39,158,011Other Contributions 5,713,580

TOTAL PRIVATE AND NONFEDERAL SOURCES $ 44,871,591

[Note: Complete audited information was unavailable at press time.]

Department of Health and Human Services25,486,450

Department of Transportation104,412,015

National Science Foundation16,114,505

Department of the Navy12,127,696

Department of Commerce11,958,299

Department of the Army10,474,067

All Other Federal Sources70,158,132

Revenue Applied to 2012

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About the National Academies

The U.S. government’s need for an independent adviser on science and technology matters became evident by the height of the Civil War. On March 3, 1863, President Lincoln approved the congressional charter which created that adviser, the National Academy of Sciences.

The private, nonprofit Academy has counseled the federal government in wartime and peacetime ever since. As science and technology issues have grown in complexity and scope, so too has the Academy. Four separate but related entities continue this work.

THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES (NAS) is a society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engi-neering research, and dedicated to the use of science and technology for the public welfare. In addition to its role as adviser to the federal government, the Academy sponsors symposia, monitors human rights abuses against scientists worldwide, promotes the public understanding of science, and publishes a research journal, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. RALPH J. CICERONE, President BRUCE DARLING, Executive Officer JAMES HINCHMAN, Deputy Executive Officer

THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF ENGINEERING (NAE) is an association of outstanding engineers from industry and aca-demia. Established in 1964 under NAS’ charter, NAE is autonomous in its administration and selection of its members. It shares with NAS responsibility for advising the federal government. It also conducts studies of policy issues in engineer-ing and technology, encourages education and research, and grants awards to distinguished engineers. CHARLES M. VEST, President LANCE DAVIS, Executive Officer

THE INSTITUTE OF MEDICINE (IOM) is an association of eminent health care professionals and experts in related fields. Established by NAS in 1970, IOM examines policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. It shares responsibilities with NAS and NAE for advising the federal government. It also undertakes studies on its own initiative, addressing issues of health care, health sciences, and education. HARVEY V. FINEBERG, President JUDITH SALERNO, Leonard D. Schaeffer Executive Officer

THE NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL, founded in 1916, has become the principal administrative arm of NAS, NAE, and IOM. The Council’s staff convenes study committees for the NAS and NAE, and most of the studies appear under the Council’s name. The IOM convenes its own committees, following the same quality assurance procedures used by the Council.

In addition to conducting studies, the National Research Council brings together scientists, engineers, and educa-tors to set priorities and encourage self-examination and improvement within their professions. It also works to improve science and math education at all levels, from kindergarten through doctoral programs. RALPH J. CICERONE, Chair CHARLES M. VEST, Vice Chair BRUCE DARLING, Executive Officer JAMES HINCHMAN, Deputy Executive Officer

http://www.pnas.org

http://www.pnas.org

Photographs

Front cover: (clockwise from upper left) Photo courtesy NASA/ESA/R. O’Connell (University of Virginia)/F. Paresce (National Institute for Astrophysics, Bologna, Italy)/E. Young (Universities Space Research Association/Ames Research Center)/WFC3 Science Oversight Committee/Hubble Heritage Team (STScI/AURA); photo courtesy California Department of Water Resources; ©Hemera/Thinkstock; Trident Laser Facility at Los Alamos National Laboratory, photo by LeRoy Sanchez/LANL; U.S. Army photo by Air Force Staff Sgt. Aaron D. Allmon II

Page 1: (left to right) Ralph J. Cicerone, president of the National Academy of Sciences and chair of the National Research Council; Charles M. Vest, president of the National Academy of Engineering and vice chair of the National Research Council; Harvey V. Fineberg, president of the Institute of Medicine

Page 2: (from top) ©Chad Baker/Photodisc/Thinkstock; ©George Doyle/Stockbyte/Thinkstock; ©Goodshoot/ThinkstockPage 3: (from top) ©Hemera/Thinkstock; aerial over California’s Bay-Delta region, photo courtesy California Department of

Water Resources; historic National Academy of Sciences building in Washington, D.C., photo by Maxwell MacKenziePage 4: (clockwise from top) In preparation for the 2012 hurricane season, FEMA’s Logistics Management Directorate leads

a whole community resource support planning session, photo by Brittany Trotter/FEMA; photo courtesy NASA/ESA/Jesús Maíz Apellániz (Instituto de Astrofísica de Andalucía, Spain); residents cope with heavier than usual rains during the 2011 monsoon season in Thailand, U.S. Marine Corps photo by Cpl. Robert J. Maurer; Lawrence Livermore Laboratory’s large accelerator for mass spectrometry, photo by Jacqueline McBride/LLNL

Pages 6-7: ©Ocean/Corbis; NOAA photo of 2012’s devastating Hurricane Sandy; researchers at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, photo courtesy LLNL

Pages 8-9: Sandia National Laboratories’ Annular Core Research Reactor, photo by Randy Montoya/SNL; infrared image of cow infected with foot-and-mouth disease, photo by Craig Packer/USDA Agricultural Research Service; ©Hemera/Thinkstock

Pages 10-11: Photo courtesy NASA/ESA/Hubble Heritage (STScI/AURA)-ESA/Hubble Collaboration; infrasound station in Qaanaaq, Greenland that is part of a high-tech global network that monitors for nuclear tests, photo by Owen Kilgour/Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty Organization; a ground-based missile interceptor being lowered into its silo at the Missile Defense Complex at Fort Greely, Alaska, U.S. Army photo by Sgt. Jack W. Carlson III

Page 13: (clockwise from top) ©iStockphoto/Thinkstock; ©Dick Luria/Photodisc/Thinkstock; ©Creatas Images/Thinkstock; ©iStockphoto/Thinkstock

Pages 14-15: ©Fancy/Hero Images/Corbis; ©Creatas/Jupiterimages/Thinkstock; ©iStockphoto/ThinkstockPages 16-17: ©Troy House/Ivy/Corbis; ©BananaStock/Jupiterimages/Getty Images; ©iStockphoto/ThinkstockPage 19: (clockwise from top) ©Digital Vision/Thinkstock; ©Hemera/Thinkstock; U.S. Army photo by Tech. Sgt. Dawn Price;

©Radius Images/Getty ImagesPages 20-21: ©Digital Vision/Thinkstock; ©Thomas Northcut/Digital Vision/Thinkstock; U.S. Army photo by Spc. Angelica

GolindanoPages 22-23: ©iStockphoto/Thinkstock; ©Ingram Publishing/Thinkstock; ©Creatas/Jupiterimages/Getty ImagesPage 25: Aerial over California’s Bay-Delta region, photo courtesy California Department of Water Resources; algae fermentation

bioreactor, ©Volker Steger/Science Source; ©Richard Cohen/Corbis; Oregon coast, ©Ingram Publishing/ThinkstockPages 26-27: Photo courtesy California Department of Water Resources; Florida Everglades, photo by Brian Call, National Park

Service; photo courtesy Oregon State University’s Sea Grant ExtensionPages 28-29: ©iStockphoto/Thinkstock; scientist at Los Alamos National Laboratory engaged in algae research for biofuels

production and other applications, LANL photo; removal of 1950s underground storage tanks at Fort Stewart/Hunter Army Airfield, U.S. Army photo

Back cover: The National Academy of Sciences building and the Academies’ Keck Center, both in Washington, D.C.

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Editor: Valerie ChaseAssistant Editor: Nicole JoyDesigner: Francesca Moghari

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http://national-academies.org/annualreport

report to congress 2012

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