report on foreign exchange market of hsbc bangladesh ltd

Internship report

On

Foreign Exchange Market of HSBC Bangladesh Ltd

An Internship Report Presented in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for

the Degree Bachelor of Business Administration

www.AssignmentPoint.com

Date..

Md. …………………

Lecturer, School of Business

……………………….

Sir:

It is a great pleasure for me to submit a. internship report on “Foreign Exchange Market of HSBC

Bangladesh Ltd”. I am submitting this report as the part of my internship (………….) on HSBC

Bangladesh. This report will help the organization to find out different forecasting techniques of

foreign exchange markets.

This is the first time I have done a descriptive study in a complete form and I have tried my best to

complete the study in proper way. It is true that it could have been done in a better way if there

would not be any limitations.

I hope you will asses my report considering the limitations of the study. Your kind advice will

encourage me to do further research in future.

Yours’ most faithfully,

………………………


ACKNOWLEDGEMENT

First of all I want to pay my gratitude to the Almighty Allah for helping me in preparing this

internship paper successfully. Secondly, I want to express my gratefulness to my internship

supervisor, Md. ……………, for providing me continuous support and guideline to prepare a

research paper. His contribution to me can only be acknowledged but never be compensated.

I would like to thank …………. and also a special thanks to ……………….., the colleagues of

HSBC global markets.

Furthermore, I want to convey my heartiest thanks to my friends and families. Without their help I

could not even think of preparing this report.


Table of Content

Page

Executive Summary 1

1.0 Introduction 2

2.0 Statement of the Problem 5

3.0 Purpose of the study 6

4.0 Research Time Line 6

5.0 Limitation of the Study 7

6.0 Literature Review 8

7.0 Forecasting techniques in the foreign exchange markets 10

7.1 Fundamental Analysis 10

7.1. a General Steps to Fundamental Evaluation 11

7.1. b Economic Forecast 12

7.2 Technical Analysis 13

7.2. a Underlying assumptions of technical analysis 13

7.2. b The main considerations in Technical Analysis 13

8.0 Research Methodology 14

8.1 Research Design 14

8.1. a Primary Sources 14

8.1. b Secondary Sources 15

8.2 Data Collection 15

8.3 Data Analysis 15

8.3.1 Technical Analysis Basics 15


Table of Content

Page

8.3.1. a Rationale 15

8.3.1. b Types of Charts 16

8.3.1. c Candle Chart 17

8.3.1. d Why Use Candle charts 17

8.3.2 Some other Forecasting Techniques 18

9.0 Discussion 21

9.1 Business utilization of technical analysis 21

9.1.1 Bangladesh inter-bank Foreign Exchange Market 21

9.1.1. a Inter-Bank Transaction in Foreign Exchange 21

9.1.1. b Quarterly transactions of USD/BDT and

Other FCY/BDT Transaction 23

9.2 The use of Technical analysis in Bangladesh 24

9.2.1 Importers point of views 25

9.2.2 Exporters point of views 25

10.0 Significance of the Study 25

11.0 Risks Involved in foreign exchange 26

11.1. Exchange Rate Risk 27

11.2. Interest Rate Risk 28

11.3. Credit Risk 28

11.4. Country Risk 29

12.0 Recommendation 30


13.0 Conclusion 31

Reference 33

Appendix 1 34

Appendix 2 34

Appendix 3 35

Appendix 4 35

Appendix 5 36

Appendix 6 37

Appendix 7 37

Appendix 8 38

List of Figures

Page

1. A chart of the S&P 500 and the yield on the 10-year note

over the last 30 years 13

2. Types of charts used in forecasting 16

3. A price chart that displays the high, low, open, and close for a security

each day over a specified period of time 17

4. Comparison of different forecasted rates with the actual market rate 20

5. Yearly transaction from the year 2002-2007 21

6. Month to Month Inter-Bank Transaction in Foreign Exchange 22

7. Quarterly transactions of USD/BDT and Other FCY/BDT Transaction

in the inter-bank markets 23


Executive Summary

Banks play a major role in maintaining confidence in the monetary system of a country.

This study investigates about different forecasting techniques of foreign exchange markets. This

includes different forecasting techniques which are followed by HSBC and also some other

forecasting methods which I have suggested to do in stead of the current techniques followed by

the bank.

The foreign exchange market has played a vital role in the last decade or so in guiding the

purchase and sale of goods, services and raw materials globally. The market directly affects

country’s bond, equities, private property, manufacturing and all assets that are available to

foreign investors. The market is a stabilizing factor in the world system of monetary exchange

and was created not by design but necessity.

Foreign exchange rates also play a major role in determining who finances government

deficits, which buys equities in companies and literally effects and influences the economic

scenario of every nation to cope with the foreign exchange risk in an open market economy. The

market has its own momentum and therefore it is crucial to follow a universal time tested policy

to tackle the forces behind the free market system with minimal risk involvement.

This study is based on both primary and secondary data, which are collected from many

sources.


1.0. Introduction

Hong Kong Shanghai Banking Corporation (HSBC)

Headquartered in London, HSBC is one of the largest banking and financial services organizations

in the world. It began operations in Hong Kong more than 130 years ago. The HSBC Group's

international network comprises some 7,000 offices in 80 countries and territories in Europe, the

Asia-Pacific region, the Americas, the Middle East and Africa. With listings on the London, Hong

Kong, New York and Paris stock exchanges, around 190,000 shareholders in some 100 countries

and territories hold shares in HSBC. Through a global network linked by advanced technology,

including a rapidly growing e-commerce capability, HSBC provides a comprehensive range of

financial services: personal, commercial, corporate, investment and private banking; trade services;

cash management; treasury and capital markets services; insurance; consumer and business

finance;

HSBC group Vision & Values:

Become the world’s leading financial services company.

• Long term, ethical client service.

• High productivity through teamwork.

• Confident and ambitious sense of excellence.

• Capable of creativity and strong marketing.


HSBC’s Business Principal and value:

The HSBC Group is committed to five Business Principles:

• Outstanding customer service;

• Effective and efficient operations;

• Strong capital liquidity;

• Conservative lending policy;

• Strict expense discipline;

HSBC in Bangladesh

The HSBC Asia Pacific group represents HSBC in Bangladesh. HSBC opened its first branch in

Dhaka in 17th December 1996 to provide personal banking services, trade and corporate services,

and custody services. The Bank was awarded ISO9002 accreditation for its personal and business

banking services, which cover trade services, securities and safe custody, corporate banking,

Hexagon and all personal banking. This ISO9002 designation is the first of its kind for a bank in

Bangladesh. The Hong Kong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Bangladesh Ltd. primarily

limited its operations to help garments industry and to commercial banking. Latter, it is extended to

pharmaceuticals, jute and consumer products. Other services include cash management, treasury,

securities, and custodial service.

HSBC in Bangladesh also specializes in self-service banking through providing 24-hour ATM

services. In total the branch currently has 9 ATM’s (5 on-site & 4 offsite) located at various

geographical areas of Dhaka & Chittagong.


Operations of Global Markets:

HSBC’s operations in Global Markets consist of treasury and capital markets services for

supranational, central banks, corporations, institutional and private investors, financial institutions

and other market participants. Products include:

• Foreign exchange;

• Currency, interest rate, bond, credit, equity and other specialized derivatives;

• Government and non-government fixed income and money market instruments;

• Precious metals and exchange traded futures;

• Equity services, including research, sales and trading for institutional, corporate and private

clients and asset management services, including global investment advisory and fund

management services; and

• Distribution of capital markets instruments, including debt, equity and structured products,

utilizing links with HSBC’s global networks. Corporate and Investment Banking

The main purpose of treasury is to:

• Manage bank’s assets and liabilities.

• Promote and sell bank’s product.

• Manage the Bank’s excess/short foreign exchange products.

• Manage the bank’s excess/short interest rate products.


Some Typical Treasury Products

• Spot foreign exchange

• Forward foreign exchange

• Swaps : a) currency b) interest rate & c) structured

• Options : a) plain vanilla & b) complex

• Derivatives : a) plain vanilla & b) structured

• Securities : a) T-Bills and T-Bonds b) FRNs

• Repo & Reverse Repo : Repurchase / Sell-Buy transactions

• Money market : overnight and term deposits

2.0 Statement of the Problem

Now a days, competition between banks has really increased in Bangladesh as there are quite a

large numbers of bank’s has established in past few years. So it has really important for HSBC to

hold up there current customers. So the management of HSBC is facing a lot of competition and

also thinking how they can attract new customers.

In this research I have tried to show different forecasting techniques of exchange rate, some

forecasting problems in the forex markets due to technical problem or wrong prediction and also

tried to recommend some solution to overcome these problems.


3.0 Purpose of the study

The purposes of this paper are to establish rational behind the activity and to enlighten a core

area of operation- to forecast the exchange rate. Within the two major forecasting techniques, more

emphasis is given on the technical forecasting techniques which is followed by HSBC and I have

also tried to shown some alternative forecasting techniques and also suggested the best one I found

based on my calculations. A detailed discussion of these is presented in this paper.

The purpose of the study is to explore different forecasting techniques of foreign exchange

markets, technical analysis basics of foreign exchange market, business utilization of technical

analysis, use of technical analysis in HSBC, some risks involved in foreign exchange market and

also the way to avoid mistakes in foreign exchange market

4.0 Research Time Line

2007-Sept Writing Research Proposal

2007-Sept Developing Literature Review

2007-Sept Collecting Data

2007-Oct Data Analysis and Interpretation of the Findings

2007-Nov Preparing Draft and Finalizing the Research Paper

2007-Dec Submission of the Research Paper


5.0 Limitation of the Study

• The major limitations of the technical analysis is, it may or may not produces the accurate

projections of the foreign currency rates as a large amount of dependency on the dealers

perspective. Also experience is the countable variables here, which cannot be expressed, in any

mathematical models.

• According to the technical forecasting techniques the market has it own destiny and the major

part of the analysis based on to determine the future. So major social or economical even

political events can change it a lot. So dealers must be reactive rather than proactive.

• Time frame for the research was very limited.

• Large-scale research was not possible due to constraints and restrictions posed by the

organization.

• Getting relevant papers and documents were strictly prohibited.

• The limitations that I already faced are to unable to collect local financial data, and also direct

interviewing to managers doesn’t reveal many aspects of HSBC which they deny to answer or

doesn’t want to answer due to their own personal career security at HSBC

• One of the main barriers in writing this report was the confidentiality of data. Though I saw

their internal procedure that is being used in processing and evaluating any documentary credit,

but I was told strictly not to disclose that even in my internship report.


6.0 Literature Review

Financial markets could mean:

1. Organizations that facilitate the trade in financial products. i.e. Stock exchanges facilitate the

trade in stocks, bonds and warrants.

2. The coming together of buyers and sellers to trade financial products. i.e. stocks and shares are

traded between buyers and sellers in a number of ways including: the use of stock exchanges;

directly between buyers and sellers etc.

In academia, students of finance will use both meanings but students of economics will only use

the second meaning.

Financial markets can be domestic or they can be international.

The foreign exchange (currency or forex or FX) market exists wherever one currency is

traded for another. It is by far the largest financial market in the world, and includes trading

between large banks, central banks, currency speculators, multinational corporations,

governments, and other financial markets and institutions. The average daily trade in the global

forex and related markets currently is over US$ 3 trillion. Retail traders (individuals) are a small

fraction of this market and may only participate indirectly through brokers or banks, and are

subject to forex scams.


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Forex_scam

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Commodity_broker

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Retail_forex

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/US$

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Financial_markets

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Governments

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Multinational_corporation

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Speculators

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Central_bank

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Currency

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economics

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Academia

The term FOREX is derived from the words Foreign exchange and is the largest financial

market in the world. Unlike many markets the FX market is open 24 hours per day and has an

estimated $1.2 Trillion in turnover every day. This tremendous turnover is more than the

combined turnover of the main worlds’ stock markets on any given day. This trends to lead to a

very liquid market and thus a desirable market to trade.

Unlike many other securities (any financial instrument that can be traded) the FX market does

not have a fixed exchange. It is primarily traded through banks, brokers, dealers, financial

institutions and private individuals.

The Foreign Exchange market is a worldwide network which connects the various national

exchange markets by telephone and telex etc, either directly or via brokers, to transact foreign

exchange business.

The Foreign Exchange, also referred to as the "Forex" or "Spot FX" market, is the largest

financial market in the world. Money is traded in the FX market. Forex trading is where the

currency of one nation is traded for that of another. Therefore, Forex trading is always traded in

pairs. The most commonly traded currency pairs are traded against the US Dollar (USD). They

are called ‘the Majors'. The major currency pairs are the Euro Dollar (EUR/USD); the British

Pound (GBP/USD); the Japanese Yen (USD/JPY); and the Swiss Franc (USD/CHF).

The notable ‘commodity’ currency pairs that trade are the Canadian Dollar (USD/CAD) and the

Australian Dollar AUD/USD. Because there is not a central exchange for the Forex market, these


pairs and their crosses are traded over the telephone and online through a global network of

banks, multinational corporations, importers and exporters, brokers and currency traders.

"Technical analysis is the study of market action, primarily through the use of charts, for the

purpose of forecasting future price trends." In its purest form, technical analysis considers only

the actual price behavior of the market or instrument, based on the premise that price reflects all

relevant factors before an investor becomes aware of them through other channels.

Technical analysis is widely used among traders and financial professionals, and some studies

say its use is more widespread than is "fundamental" analysis in the foreign exchange market.

Academics such as Eugene Fama say the evidence for technical analysis is sparse and is refuted

by the efficient market hypothesis, yet some Federal Reserve and academic studies include

evidence that supports technical analysis. MIT finance professor Andrew Lo argues that "several

academic studies suggest that…technical analysis may well be an effective means for extracting

useful information from market prices." Burton Malkiel argues, "Technical analysis is anathema

to the academic world." He further argues that under the weak form of the efficient market

hypothesis, "...you cannot predict future stock prices from past stock prices.

7.0 Forecasting techniques in the foreign exchange markets:

Currently there are widely accepted two alternative techniques for forecasting, namely

1. Fundamental Analysis

2. Technical Analysis

7.1 Fundamental Analysis


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Burton_Malkiel

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Efficient_market_hypothesis

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eugene_Fama

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foreign_exchange_market

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Charts

A method of currency valuation which involves examining the countries financial figures like

import/exports, balance of trade, reserve on currency, political and economical news etc.

Fundamental analysis takes into consideration only those variables that are directly related to the

country itself, rather than the overall state of the market or technical analysis data.

Fundamental analysis is the examination of the underlying forces that affect the well being of the

economy, industry groups, and companies. As with most analysis, the goal is to derive a forecast

and profit from future price movements. At the company level, fundamental analysis may involve

examination of financial data, management, business concept and competition. At the industry

level, there might be an examination of supply and demand forces for the products offered. For the

national economy, fundamental analysis might focus on economic data to assess the present and

future growth of the economy. To forecast future stock prices, fundamental analysis combines

economic, industry, and company analysis to derive a stock's current fair value and forecast future

value. If fair value is not equal to the current stock price, fundamental analysts believe that the

stock is either over or under valued and the market price will ultimately gravitate towards fair

value. Fundamentalists do not heed the advice of the random walkers and believe that markets are

weak-form efficient. By believing that prices do not accurately reflect all available information,

fundamental analysts look to capitalize on perceived price discrepancies.

7.1. a General Steps to Fundamental Evaluation

Even though there is no one clear-cut method, a breakdown is presented below in the order an

investor might proceed. This method employs a top-down approach that starts with the overall

economy and then works down from industry groups to specific companies. As part of the analysis

process, it is important to remember that all information is relative. Industry groups are compared


against other industry groups and companies against other companies. Usually, companies are

compared with others in the same group. For example, a telecom operator (City cell) would be

compared to another telecom operator (Gremeen Phone), not to an Electronics company (Philips).

7.1. b Economic Forecast

First and foremost in a top-down approach would be an overall evaluation of the general

economy. The economy is like the tide and the various industry groups and individual companies

are like boats. When the economy expands, most industry groups and companies benefit and grow.

When the economy declines, most sectors and companies usually suffer. Many economists link

economic expansion and contraction to the level of interest rates. Interest rates are seen as a leading

indicator for the stock market as well.

Below is a chart of the S&P 500 and the yield on the 10-year note over the last 30 years.

Although not exact, a correlation between stock prices and interest rates can be seen. Once a

scenario for the overall economy has been developed, an investor can break down the economy

into its various industry groups.


(Figure: 1- A chart of the S&P 500 and the yield on the 10-year note over the last 30 years)

7.2 Technical Analysis

In contrast to the efficient market hypothesis or fundamental analysis, technical analysis

involves the examination of past data like prices and volume of trading, which leads to an

estimation of future price trends and there of an investment decision. Technical analysis don’t

require any analysis of the multitude of economic, industry and company variables to arrive at an

estimate of future value because they believe that past price movements will signal future price

movements.

7.2. a Underlying assumptions of technical analysis

1. The market value of any goods and service is determined solely by the interaction of supply and

demand

2. Supply and demand is governed by numerous factors, both rational and irrational.


3. Disregarding minor fluctuations, the prices for individual securities and the overall value of the

market tend to move in trends, which persists for appreciable length of time

4. Prevailing trends change in reaction to shifts in supply and demand relationships. These shifts,

no matter why they occur can be detected sooner or later in the action of the market itself.

7.2. b The main considerations in Technical Analysis

Price: Changes in price reflect in investor attitudes and demand and supply of

securities.

Time: The degree of movements in price is a function of time. The longer it takes for a reversal

in trend for instance, the greater the price changes that would follow.

Volume: The intensity of price changes is reflected in the volume transactions that accompany

the changes. An increase is not strong enough.

Breadth: Study of Breadth of market indicators, the extent to which the price changes have

taken place in the market in accordance with a certain overall limit.

8.0 Research Methodology:

8.1 Research Design:

Source of Data

Both the primary as well as the secondary form of data was used to prepare the report. The details

of these sources are highlighted below:

8.1. a Primary Sources


Major sources of primary information were discussions with Mr. Wahiduzzaman and Md.

Bahaudding Saad, Dealers of global markets.

8.1.b Secondary Sources

Secondary information was collected from relevant documents and literature, HSBC Internet

web sites, ABC guide to foreign exchange, treasury.

Other secondary sources were books on foreign exchange and treasury back office stuffs.

8.2 Data Collection

For data collection I have interviewed dealers of global markets and also the treasurer of global

market. I have asked them many questions about my related topics. Some questions are:

• What are the operations of Global Markets?

• What are the main purposes of Treasury?

• What are the Treasury products HSBC is using right now?

• What are the forecasting techniques of foreign exchange market?

• What are the Basic for technical analysis?

8.3 Data Analysis

Here are some Forecasting Techniques followed by HSBC in their Foreign Exchange Markets:

8.3.1 Technical Analysis Basics

8.3.1. a Rationale

–Examination of the past price movements to forecast future movements

–Price Discounts Everything


Candle Chart – High visual impact•Mostly used for identifying short term trend reversals•Must be used in conjunction with other indicators

Open

Close

Real Body

HIGH

LOWBull

CandleBear

Candle

Close

OpenUpper Shadow

Lower Shadow

–Price Movements are not Totally Random

–What is More Important than Why

–Discipline – divorce yourself from emotions

– Volume for Stock, Open Interest & volume for Futures

8.3.1. b Types of Charts

• Line,

• Bar,

• Candle,

• Points & Figure Etc

(Figure: 2- Types of charts used in forecasting)

8.3.1. c Candle Chart


(Figure: 3- A price chart that displays the high, low, open, and close for a security each day over a

specified period of time)

8.3.1. d Why Use Candle charts

“Make use of your opportunities.” (Japanese proverb)

The candlestick techniques we use today originated in the style of technical charting used by the

Japanese for over 100 years before the West developed the bar and point-and-figure analysis

systems. In the 1700s a Japanese man named Homma, a trader in the futures market, discovered

that, although there was a link between price and the supply and demand of rice, the markets were

strongly influenced by the emotions of the traders. He understood that when emotions played into

the equation a vast difference between the value and the price of rice occurred. This difference

between the value and the price is as applicable to stocks today as it was to rice in Japan centuries

ago. The principles established by Homma are the basis for the candlestick chart analysis, which is

used to measure market emotions towards a stock.

This charting technique has become very popular among traders. One reason is that the charts

reflect only short-term outlooks--sometimes lasting less than eight to 10 trading sessions.

A big difference between the bar charts common in North America and the Japanese candlestick

line is the relationship between opening and closing prices. We place more emphasis on the

progression of today's closing price from yesterday's close. In Japan, chartists are more interested

in the relationship between the closing price and the opening price of the same trading day.


http://www.investopedia.com/articles/technical/02/

http://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/pointandfigurechart.asp

http://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/barchart.asp

http://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/candlestick.asp

8.3.2 Followings are some other Forecasting Techniques in which I have shown the calculations

of forecasting foreign exchange rates and also based on the result I made recommendation for

HSBC which they can be used instead of their current method:

Moving Average:

In the moving average method, we use the most recent n data values in the time series as the

forecast for the next period. Mathematically, the moving average calculation is made as follows:

Moving Average=∑ (most recent n data values)/n

The term “moving” is used because every time a new observation becomes available for the time

series, it replaces the oldest observations, and a new average is computed. The average changes, or

moves, as new observations become available.

(See Appendix: 4- Calculation of moving average)

Exponential Smoothing Average:

Exponential smoothing uses a weighted average of past time values as the forecast, it is special

case of the weighted moving averages method in which we select only one weight-the weight for

the most recent observation. The weights for the other data values are computed automatically and

become smaller as the observations move farther into the past. The basic exponential smoothing

model follows:

Exponential Smoothing Average, F (t+1)=∞Yt+(1-∞)Ft

Where,

F (t+1) =forecast of the time series for period t+1

Yt =actual value of the time series in period t


Ft=forecast of the time series for period t

∞=smoothing constant (0≤∞≤1)

Or we can use the simplified form,

F(t+1)=0.2Yt+0.8Ft

(See Appendix: 5- Calculation of exponential smoothing average)

Seasonal Variation:

Seasonal variation is the patterns of change in a time series within a year. These patterns tend to

repeat themselves each year.

The third component of a time series is the seasonal component. Many sales, production, and

other series fluctuate with the seasons. The unit of time reported is either quarterly or monthly.

Almost all businesses tend to have recurring seasonal patterns. Men’s and boys’ clothing, for

example, have extremely high sales just prior to Christmas and relatively low sales just after

Christmas and during summer.

In the following Graph I will show you the comparison between different forecasting rate with

the actual market rate (See appendix: 7):


Comparison Of different Forecasted rate with the Actual Market rate

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19

Month

Rate

MovingaverageforecastCenteredmovingaverageExponentialSmothingForcast (Ft)ActualMarket Rate

(Figure: 4-Comparison of different forecasted rates with the actual market rate)

Among the three forecasting techniques, I think the moving average technique is the most

appropriate, because from the graph you can see that among the three techniques the moving

average techniques has the least spread than the other techniques compared to the actual

forecasting techniques.

And also from the mean calculation(See-Appendix: 7),we can see that the spread between

Moving Average method and the Actual Market rate is the least, which is 0.116172778,and it is

the closest amongst the other methods. So, I can suggest HSBC to use the moving average

method if they wants to change their current Forecasting Method.

9.0 Discussion

9

.1 Business utilization of technical analysis

9.1.1 Bangladesh inter-bank Foreign Exchange Market


9.1.1. a Inter-Bank Transaction in Foreign Exchange

The volume of inter-bank foreign exchange transaction maintained a downward trend till year

2006 but started to move upward from the year 2006. In year 2006-2007, the inter-bank

transactions in foreign exchange were totaled US$13,705,791.14, which has increased by

6,709,141.064 compared with the preceding year total US$ 6,996,650.076 (See appendix 1).

Total transactions in the inter-bank foreign exchange market from the year 2002-2007 were given

into a graph as under:

Total Transaction from year 2002-2007

0200000040000006000000800000010000000120000001400000016000000

02-03 03-04 04-05 05-06 06-07

Year

Fig

ure

in

US

Do

llar

Volume inUSD/BDT

(Figure: 5- Yearly transaction from the year 2002-2007)

Monthly position of inter-bank transactions was uneven over the period due to unpredictable

demand and supply position in the inter-bank market.

Month-wise position of inter-bank transaction in foreign exchange for last twelve months is

given below in a graphical form. It appears from the graph that the highest transaction took place in

June-July 2007, over the last 12 months period (see appendix 2).


Monthly Position of Inter-Bank Transactions

0

2000000

4000000

6000000

8000000

10000000

12000000

14000000

16000000

18000000

20000000

Sep-06

Oct-06

Nov-06

Dec-06

Jan-07 Feb-07

M ar-07

Apr-07

M ay-07

Jun-07 Jul-07 Aug-07

Sep-07

Month

Am

ou

nt

(eq

uiv

ale

nt

in

US

Do

lla

r)

(Figure: 6- Month to Month Inter-Bank Transaction in Foreign Exchange)

Inter-bank foreign exchange transactions have been going on smoothly despite declining the

trend of transaction volume from July 2007. The transactions equivalent in million U.S.

Dollar in the inter-bank foreign exchange market during July-Sept, 2007 were the followings-

17914318.18, 16027368.42, and

10396500(equivalent in US Dollar), from which we can see very easily that the transaction

volume is declining month by month.

9.1.1. b Quarterly transactions of USD/BDT and Other FCY/BDT Transaction

FCY/BDT Market has experienced much unsteady condition over the period in current year.

The volume of other FCY/BDT transactions incredibly increased during second quarter, the

amount equal to 1478914.474, and after that during third and forth quarter it again declined and

reach almost to its earlier position.


On the other hand, USD/BDT transactions decreased from 13738515.63 to 10706875 during

the second quarter, but after that it again started moving upward and reached to15385873.02

during the fourth quarter (see appendix 4).

This is happened mainly due to supply of U.S. Dollar in the inter-bank forex market and price

hike of importable products like petroleum & petroleum products and other essential commodities

in the international market. A comparative position showing quarterly movement of USD/BDT and

other FCY/BDT transactions for the current year is given in graph:

Quarterly mo vement o f uSD/BDT and o ther FC Y/BDT Trans ac tio ns (Vo lume)

0

2000000

4000000

6000000

8000000

10000000

12000000

14000000

16000000

18000000

1st Quarter 2nd Quarter 3rd Quarter 4th Quarter

Quarters o f year 2006-2007

USD/BDT Transact ion

FCY/BDT Transact ion

(Figure: 7- Quarterly transactions of USD/BDT and Other FCY/BDT Transaction in the inter-

bank markets)

The volume of BDT trades against USD decline during the second quarter due to the higher

demand of import payments as well as the official rate declared against the USD/BDT by the

central bank. According to the official sources from Central Bank USD/BDT rates are 68.61 taka

(as of Nov 07) whereas the underlying rates of BDT against FCY reaches Tk69.50. Comparing

average TT clean buying rates of the commercial banks operated into this market stands at 68.80

on 15Nov06 and selling rates at 69.80 (refers appendix 6). The difference between these 1..00 taka


between the official and actual markets rates insist the volume of FCY deals against BDT thus

originating more cross currency trading.

9.2 The use of Technical analysis in Bangladesh

The use of forecasting techniques can play major role in the increasing amount of transactions

into the inter-bank foreign exchange markets in the third currency. The reasons underlying these

transactions are mainly the Spot currency speculations as well as the obligations arise from the

imports and governments payments.

In order to minimize the risk and to gain the opportunity over the global currency markets the

introduction of the technical analysis help the speculators and give the importer or exporter the

opportunity to hedge their currency positions.

9.2.1 Importers point of views

If major trends can be identified in advance the dealers can advise the importer in advance to

cover the risk through forwards or even within the day transactions.

Suppose an importer opens a L/C of GBP1.00 million and the current market rate against GBP=

USD 2.0655 and USD= TK 68.6050. if the documents have to retire today the importer have to

pay Tk141.7036 million today.

But utilizing the technical analysis, if the major trends can be identified, the importer can hedge

their obligations as per the trend, i.e. if the trend is upward in both GBP/USD and USD/BDT,

hedge it today through spot of forward or if the trend in downward use the maximum period before

the payments due date.


9.2.2 Exporters point of views

Similar to an importer, if an exporter due to receive currency like GBP or USD against the

export documents, can position accordingly to the major outlooks of the underlying currency

he/she will receive.

In the current scenario in USD/BDT as the market is in favor of USD, the exporter should try to

lag his/her export proceeds in order to get deprecated rates over Taka.

10.0 Significance of the Study

The foreign exchange market has played a vital role in the last decade or so in guiding the

purchase and sale of goods, services and raw materials globally. The market directly affects

country’s bond, equities, private property, manufacturing and all assets that are available to foreign

investors. The market is a stabilizing factor in the world system of monetary exchange and was

created not by design but by necessity.

Foreign exchange rates also play a major role in determining who finances government deficits,

which buys equities in companies and literally effects and influences the economic scenario of

every nation to cope with the foreign exchange risk in an open market economy. The market has its

own momentum and therefore it is crucial to follow a universal time tested policy to tackle the

forces behind the free market system with minimal risk involvement.

The research will draw various forecasting techniques in the foreign exchange market, basics of the

technical analysis, business utilization of the technical analysis and also the utilization of the

technical analysis in Bangladesh.


And finally the research has also described about some of the mistakes made in the forex markets

and also some techniques to avoid the mistakes in the forex markets which the dealers apply while

doing their works.

11.0 Risks Involved in foreign exchange

On the foreign exchange market one discerns the following kinds of the risks:

• Exchange rate risk;

• Interest rate risk;

• Credit risk;

• Country risk.

11.1. Exchange Rate Risk

Exchange rate risk is a consequence of the continuous shift in the worldwide market supply and

demand balance on an outstanding foreign exchange position. A position will be a subject to all the

price changes as long as it is outstanding. In order to cut losses short and ride profitable positions

that losses should be kept within manageable limits. The most popular steps are the position limit

and the loss limit. The limits are a function of the policy of the banks along with the skills of the

traders and their specific areas of expertise. There are two types of position limits: daylight and

overnight.

1. The daylight position limit establishes the maximum amount of a certain currency which a trader

is allowed to carry at any single time during.

The limit should reflect both the trader's level of trading skills and the amount at which a trader

peaks.


2. The overnight position limit which should be smaller than daylight limits refers to any

outstanding position kept overnight by traders. Really, the majority of foreign exchange traders do

not hold overnight positions.

The loss limit is a measure to avoid unsustainable losses made by traders; which is enforced by

the senior officers in the dealing center. The loss limits are selected on a daily and monthly basis

by top management.

The position and loss limits can now be implemented more conveniently with the help of

computerized systems which enable the treasurer and the chief trader to have continuous,

instantaneous, and comprehensive access to accurate figures for all the positions and the profit and

loss. This information may also be delivered from all the branches abroad into the headquarters

terminals.

Trading 106

11.2. Interest Rate Risk

Interest rate risk is pertinent to currency swaps, forward out rights, futures, and options. It refers

to the profit and loss generated by both the fluctuations in the forward spreads and by forward

amount mismatches and maturity gaps among transactions in the foreign exchange book. An

amount mismatch is the difference between the spot and the forward amounts. For an active

forward desk the complete elimination of maturity gaps is virtually impossible. However, this may

not be a serious problem if the amounts involved in these mismatches are small. On a daily basis,

traders balance the net payments and receipts for each currency through a special type of swap,

called tomorrow/next or rollover.


To minimize interest rate risk, management sets limits on the total size of mismatches. The

policies differ among banks, but a common approach is to separate the mismatches, based on their

maturity dates, into up to six months and past six months. All the transactions are entered in

computerized systems in order to calculate the positions for all the delivery dates and the profit and

loss. Continuous analysis of the interest rate environment is necessary to forecast any changes that

may impact on the outstanding gaps.

11.3. Credit Risk

Credit risk is connected with the possibility that an outstanding currency position may not be

repaid as agreed, due to a voluntary or involuntary action by a counter party. In these cases, trading

occurs on regulated exchanges, where all trades are settled by the clearing house. On such

exchanges, traders of all sizes can deal without any credit concern.

The following forms of credit risk are known:

1. Replacement risk which occurs when counter parties of the failed bank find their books

unbalanced to the extent of their exposure to the insolvent party. To rebalance their books, these

banks enter new transactions.

2. Settlement risk which occurs because of different time zones on different continents. Such a

way, currencies may be credited at different times during the day. Australian and New Zealand

dollars are credited first, then Japanese yen, followed by the European currencies and ending with

the U.S. dollar. Therefore, payment may be made to a party that will declare insolvency (or be

declared insolvent) immediately after, but prior to executing its own payments.


The credit risk for instruments traded off regulated exchanges is to be minimized through the

customers' creditworthiness. Commercial and investment banks, trading companies, and banks'

customers must have credit lines with each other to be able to trade. Even after the credit lines are

extended, the counter parties’ financial soundness should be continuously monitored. Along with

the market value of their currency portfolios, end users, in assessing the credit risk, must consider

also the potential portfolios exposure. The latter may be determined through probability analysis

over the time to maturity of the outstanding position. For the same purposes netting is used.

Netting is a process that enables institutions to settle only their net positions with one another not

trade by trade but at the end of the day, in a single transaction. If signs of payment difficulty of a

bank are shown, a group of large banks may provide short-term backing from a common reserve

pool.

Successful Trading 108

11.4. Country Risk

The failure to receive an expected payment due to government interference amounts to the

insolvency of an individual bank or institution, a situation described under credit risk. Country risk

refers to the government's interference in the foreign exchange markets and falls under the joint

responsibility of the treasurer and the credit department. Outside the major economies, controls on

foreign exchange activities are still present and actively implemented.

For the traders it is important to know or be able to anticipate any restrictive changes concerning

the free flow of currencies. If this is possible, though trading in the affected currency will dry up

considerably, it is still a manageable situation


12.0 Recommendation

Followings are some methods of avoiding foreign exchange risks:

•Don’t read the news-analyze the news: Many times, seemingly straight forward news

releases from government agencies are really public relation vehicles to advance a

particular point of view or policy. Such “news,” in the forex markets more than any other,

is used as a tool to affect the investment psychology of the crowd. Such media

manipulation is not inherently a negative. Governments and traders try to do that all the

time. The new forex trader must realize that it is important to read the news to assess the

message behind the drums.

•Don’t trade surges: A price surge is a signature of panic or surprise. In Reproduction or use

of the text or pictorial content in any manner without written permission is prohibited.

Copyright 2002 by Futures Magazine Group, 250 S. Wacker Dr., Suite 1150, Chicago, IL

60606 these events, professional traders take cover and see what happens. The retail trader

also should let the market digest such shocks.

Trading during an announcement or right before, or amid some turmoil, minimizes the odds

of predicting the probable direction. Technical indicators during surge periods will be

distorted. You should wait for a confirmation of the new direction and remember that price

action will tend to revert to pre-surge ranges providing nothing fundamental has occurred.

• Simple is better: The desire to achieve great gains in forex trading can drive us to keep

adding indicators in a never-ending quest for the impossible dream.


Similarly, trading with a dozen indicators is not necessary. Many indicators just add redundant

information. Indicators should be used that give clues to:1) trend direction, 2) resistance, 3) support

and 4) buying and selling pres sure.

13.0 Conclusion

Technical analysts consider the market to be 80% psychological and 20% logical. Fundamental

analysts consider the market to be 20% psychological and 80% logical. It may be open for debate,

but there is no questioning on the current price. After all, it is available for all to see and nobody

doubts its legitimacy. The price set by the market reflects the sum knowledge of all participants,

and we are not dealing with lightweights here. These participants have considered (discounted)

everything under the sun and settled on a price to buy or sell. These are the forces of supply and

demand at work. By examining price action to determine which force is prevailing, technical

analysis focuses directly on the bottom line: What is the price? Where has it been? Where is it

going?

Even though there are some universal principles and rules that can be applied, it must be

remembered that technical analysis is more a practitioner’s things form than a science. As over

time form, it is subject to interpretation. However, it is also flexible in approach and each trader

should use only that which suits his/her style. Developing a style takes time, effort and dedication,

but the rewards can be significant.


Today's markets are incredibly volatile. Plus, thousands competing against HSBC who are

constantly looking for an "edge". The market risk is very real, and can be daunting if HSBC is not

prepared. That's why need a trading strategy that will help to reduce risk and ensure reward.


Reference

• Bangladesh Bank, Foreign Exchange Guidelines, Bangladesh Bank, Dhaka

• Bangladesh Bank, Circular No. 17 ,

http://www.bangladeshbank.org/pressrl/circulars/brpd/oct0703brpd17.html

• Core Risk Management - http://www.bangladesh-bank.org/pressrl/corerisks/ferisks.pdf

• Economic Development- Author Michael P Todaro and Stephen C Smith

• Bangladesh Foreign Exchange Dealers Association (Bafeda) , Quarterly and Daily Forex

Market Reviews

• Investment Analysis and Portfolio Management - Frank K Reilly and Keith C Brown

• Technical Analysis in the Foreign Exchange Market: A Layman's Guide

Capital investment and financial decisions- Haim levy and Marshall Sarnat

http://www.technicalanalysis.org.uk/

• www.wikipedia.com-definition-financial markets

• www.wikipedia.com-foreignexchange market

• www.google.com- definition of forex market-forex trading system, market, trade, foreign

currency and exchange trading

• ABC guide to foreign exchange, HSBC, Global markets

• www.google.com- introduction to forex

• wikipedia-deinition-technical analysis

• Statistics for Business and Economics- Anderson, Sweeney, Williams-Sixth Edition.

• Statistical Techniques in Business & Economics- Lind, Marchel, Mason- Eleventh

Edition


http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/review/97/09/9709cn.pdf

http://www.bangladesh-bank.org/pressrl/corerisks/ferisks.pdf

http://www.bangladeshbank.org/pressrl/circulars/brpd/oct0703brpd17.html

Appendix

Appendix1: Inter-Bank Transaction in Foreign Exchange on Yearly Basis:

Calendar Year

Total transactions(Spot and Forward-equivalent in US Dollar)

02-03 11,574,579.4403-04 10,754,685.9204-05 8,590,738.17505-06 6,996,650.07606-07 13,705,791.14

Appendix 2: Month to Month Inter-Bank Transaction in Foreign Exchange:

MonthAmount(Equivalent in US Dollar)

Sep-06 13,673,250Oct-06 9,867222.222Nov-06 8,601,500Dec-06 13,885,833.33Jan-07 12,730,526.32Feb-07 13,128,947.37Mar-07 14,814,868.42Apr-07 13,628,571.43May-07 14,623,809.52Jun-07 17,905,238.1Jul-07 17,914,318.18Aug-07 16,027,368.42Sep-07 10,396,500


Appendix3: Quarterly transactions of USD/BDT and Other FCY/BDT Transaction in the inter-

bank markets:

Quarters of year July2006-Jun2007

USD/BDT Transaction FCY/BDT Transaction

1st Quarter 13738515.63 746,640.6252nd Quarter 10706875 1,478,914.4743rd Quarter 13558114.04 677,216.43884th Quarter 15385873.02 675,238.0952

Appendix 4: Summary of 23 months Moving Average Calculations:

Summary of the 12 months moving average calculation

MonthDaily market Rate

Moving average forecast Forecast error

Squared forecast error

January-06 68.65492 February-06 70.23846 March-06 72.13497 April-06 70.63066 70.34278333 0.287876667 0.082872975May-06 69.89733 71.00136333 -1.104033333 1.218889601June-06 70.2956 70.88765333 -0.592053333 0.35052715July-06 70.37398 70.27453 0.09945 0.009890303August-06 70.18733 70.18897 -0.00164 2.6896E-06September-06 68.33639 70.28563667 -1.949246667 3.799562568October-06 67.58447 69.63256667 -2.048096667 4.194699956November-06 71.76473 68.70273 3.062 9.375844December-06 70.11912 69.22853 0.89059 0.793150548January-07 70.26637 69.82277333 0.443596667 0.196778003February-07 69.4276 70.71674 -1.28914 1.66188194March-07 69.21849 69.93769667 -0.719206667 0.517258229April-07 69.28277 69.63748667 -0.354716667 0.125823914May-07 69.3557 69.30962 0.04608 0.002123366June-07 69.24568 69.28565333 -0.039973333 0.001597867July-07 68.9061 69.29471667 -0.388616667 0.151022914August-07 69.00869 69.16916 -0.16047 0.025750621September-07 69.33975 69.05349 0.28626 0.081944788October-07 69.423 69.08484667 0.338153333 0.114347677


November-07 69.57957 69.25714667 0.322423333 0.103956806

5. Summary of the 15 months exponential smoothing average calculation:

Summary of the 15 months exponential smoothing average calculation

Month Rate (Yt) Exponential Smoothing Forecast (Ft)Forecast Error

Jan-06

68.6549

2

Feb-06

70.2384

6 68.65492 1.58354

Mar-06

72.1349

7 68.971628 3.163342

Apr-06

70.6306

6 69.6042964 1.0263636

May-06

69.8973

3 69.8096 0.08773Jun-06 70.2956 69.82718 0.46842

Jul-06

70.3739

8 69.9209 0.45308

Aug-06

70.1873

3 70.0115 0.17583

Sep-06

68.3363

9 70.0467 -1.71031

Oct-06

67.5844

7 69.7047 -2.12023

Nov-06

71.7647

3 69.2807 2.48403

Dec-06

70.1191

2 69.7775 0.34162Jan-07 70.2663 69.8458 0.42057


7Feb-07 69.4276 69.92994 -0.50234

Mar-07

69.2184

9 69.8295 -0.61101

Apr-07

69.2827

7 69.707298 -0.424528May-07 69.3557 69.6223924 -0.2666924

Jun-07

69.2456

8 69.56905392 -0.32337392

6. Summary of the 12 months Seasonal irregular values: Summary of the 12 months Seasonal irregular values

Year Quarter RateFour quarter total

Four quarter moving average

Centered moving average

Seasonal-Irregular Value

2006 170.34278

270.27453

369.63257

280.0726533 70.01816333 69.9300013 1.001260719

469.82277

279.3673567 69.84183917 69.7193625 1.00175671

2007 169.63749

278.3875433 69.59688583 69.5284208 1.000984705

269.29472

277.8398233 69.45995583

369.08485

7. Comparison of Different forecasted rates with the Actual Market rate:

Comparison of Different forecasted rates with the Actual Market rate

MonthMoving average forecast

Centered moving average

Exponential Smoothing Forecast (Ft)

Actual Market Rate

Jan-06 68.65492Feb-06 68.65492 70.23846Mar-06 68.971628 72.13497Apr-06 70.34278333 69.6042964 70.63066


May-06 71.00136333 69.8096 69.89733Jun-06 70.88765333 69.82718 70.2956Jul-06 70.27453 69.93000125 69.9209 70.37398Aug-06 70.18897 69.93000125 70.0115 70.18733Sep-06 70.28563667 69.93000125 70.0467 68.33639Oct-06 69.63256667 69.7193625 69.7047 67.58447Nov-06 68.70273 69.7193625 69.2807 71.76473Dec-06 69.22853 69.7193625 69.7775 70.11912Jan-07 69.82277333 69.52842083 69.8458 70.26637Feb-07 70.71674 69.52842083 69.92994 69.4276Mar-07 69.93769667 69.52842083 69.8295 69.21849Apr-07 69.63748667 69.707298 69.28277May-07 69.30962 69.6223924 69.3557Jun-07 69.28565333 69.56905392 69.24568Mean- 69.95031556 69.72592819 69.65374169 69.83414278

8. Exchange rates of Commercial Banks to public for Us Dollar

U. S. Dollar SL. Spot Buying Spot SellingNo.Name of Bank T.T. O.D.Sight O.D. T.T. & B.C.

Clean Exp. Bills Transfer O.D.

1 Agrani Bank68.0200

68.0000 67.7500 68.9200 68.9700

2 Al-Arafah Islami Bank Limited68.5500

68.4705 68.3900 69.6300 69.6500

3 Arab Bangladesh Bank Limited69.0500

68.9500 68.5332 69.9400 69.9900

4 Bangladesh Krishi Bank68.0700

68.0500 67.8300 68.9500 69.0000

5 Bangladesh Shilpa Bank68.0200

68.0000 67.7400 68.9200 68.9700

6 BASIC Bank Limited68.5500

68.4000 68.3000 69.5700 69.6000

7 Bank Asia Limited68.9500

68.9069 68.4674 69.9000 69.9500

8 BRAC Bank Limited68.7500

68.7264 68.7130 69.7000 69.7400

9 Citibank, N.A. 68.900 68.8700 68.6656 69.9200 69.9500


0

10Commercial Bank of Ceylon

Ltd.68.9000

68.8732 68.7641 69.9150 69.9450

11 Dhaka Bank Limited68.8900

68.7369 68.4681 69.8200 69.8800

12 Dutch-Bangla Bank Limited68.7200

68.6265 68.0786 69.7000 69.7500

13 Eastern Bank Limited68.8500

68.7429 68.3910 69.8700 69.9000

14 EXIM Bank Limited68.5500

68.4500 68.3539 69.4700 69.5000

15 First Security Bank Limited68.0500

67.8650 67.5150 69.2000 69.2500

16 Habib Bank Limited68.3000

68.4600 68.6200 69.4700 69.5000

17 HSBC Limited68.8837

68.8795 68.6705 69.9206 69.9447

18 IFIC Bank Limited68.6945

68.5075 68.1335 69.4775 69.5075

19Islami Bank Bangladesh

Limited68.5000

68.4500 68.2500 69.4500 69.5000

20 Janata Bank 68.0200

68.0000 67.7400 68.9200 68.9700

21 Jamuna Bank Limited 68.6000

68.4105 68.1732 69.6750 69.7000

22 Mercantile Bank Limited68.7000

68.5000 68.2592 69.6500 69.7000

23 Mutual Trust Bank Limited68.7000

68.4023 68.1790 69.6700 69.7000

24 National Bank Limited68.5000

68.4100 68.1600 69.4500 69.5000

25 NCC Bank Limited68.9000

68.8000 68.7000 69.8500 69.9000

26 ONE Bank Limited68.6340

68.6022 68.2147 69.5500 69.6000

27 Prime Bank Limited68.9000

68.7124 68.4981 69.8500 69.9000

28 Pubali Bank Limited68.4500

68.3500 68.3000 69.4500 69.5000

29 Rupali Bank Limited68.2500

68.2000 68.0000 69.2300 69.2500

30 Shahjalal Islami Bank Limited 68.8500

68.6626 68.2074 69.8600 69.9000

31 Social Investment Bank 68.900 68.7401 68.1912 69.7500 69.8000


Limited 0

32 Sonali Bank68.0200

68.0000 67.7400 68.9200 68.9700

33 Southeast Bank Limited68.7500

68.5500 68.1000 69.6500 69.7500

34 Standard Bank Limited68.9000

68.8001 68.7003 69.8600 69.9000

35 Standard Chartered Bank68.9000

68.8770 68.8311 69.9200 69.9500

36 State Bank of India68.6500

68.6175 68.3700 69.6500 69.7000

37 The City Bank Limited68.9000

68.8062 68.4558 69.7800 69.8500

38 The Oriental Bank Limited67.8000

67.6995 67.5682 68.8500 68.9000

39 The Premier Bank Limited68.0500

67.8912 67.7551 69.2000 69.2500

40 The Trust Bank Limited68.9500

68.8500 68.5500 69.8000 69.8500

41United Commercial Bank

Limited68.8500

68.7500 68.5900 69.8200 69.8500

42 Uttara Bank Limited68.4400

68.3403 68.1350 69.4500 59.5000

Average 68.5908 68.4985 68.2631 69.5607 69.3664


report on foreign exchange market of hsbc bangladesh ltd

Education

use of technical analysis

data analysis

technical analysis basics

fundamental analysis

exchange rate risk

internship paper

descriptive study

internship supervisor